Workers Are Burning Buildings And Cheering Murderers — Here's What Comes Next
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The podcast argues that the United States stands at a critical historical inflection point, mirroring conditions before every major social eruption in recorded history due to extreme inequality and unaffordability. Since 1979, worker productivity has surged by nearly 80%, while wages have only increased by roughly 29%, pushing current wealth concentration levels back to the Gilded Age era of robber barons. This disparity is quantified by a Gini coefficient that peaked at 0.86 today, virtually matching the catastrophic highs of the late 19th century when the richest families held as much wealth as all other households combined. The speaker contends that this inequality alone does not cause social unrest; rather, it requires inflation to create an unaffordability crisis where necessities like housing and food become inaccessible for the working class. This combination squeezes people from both sides, leading them toward desperate measures such as arson or supporting vigilantes who target wealthy individuals, a phenomenon illustrated by recent events involving Kamal Abdul Kareem and Luigi Mangione. The narrative draws historical parallels to demonstrate that economic despair inevitably leads to violence unless structural reforms are implemented. The speaker cites Shays' Rebellion in 1786, where farmers lost their farms to debt collectors after the Revolutionary War, which directly catalyzed the Constitutional Convention of 1787 as a response to prevent such rage from destroying the nation again. Similarly, the recent unrest in Chile following a minor subway fare increase serves as proof that even successful economies can collapse when the middle class is squeezed for decades until their margin disappears completely. The current situation mirrors these historical precedents where inflation driven by government deficits and money printing erodes purchasing power without providing assets to protect against it. With 90% of Americans lacking significant asset ownership, they are left vulnerable as prices rise due to deficit spending rather than corporate greed alone, creating a volatile environment ripe for upheaval. The speaker asserts that history offers only two paths forward: structural reform or mass violence, citing the French Revolution and Weimar Germany as examples where inequality met unaffordability resulting in terror rather than equality. While acknowledging the justified anger of those facing economic ruin, the argument emphasizes that violent solutions ultimately punish the working class most severely while sparing the wealthy elite who possess legal protections and mobility. The Gilded Age was eventually resolved not by violence but through structural changes like breaking monopolies under Teddy Roosevelt, passing labor laws, and implementing progressive taxation when the fiscal foundation allowed it. In contrast to those reforms, today's economic landscape is compromised by a $2 trillion annual deficit that requires money printing to cover spending gaps, making simple tax increases or targeting billionaires insufficient solutions because they do not address the root cause of inflationary destruction caused by unbalanced budgets. Looking toward potential futures and personal strategy, the podcast outlines how geopolitical conflicts involving Iran could further exacerbate oil prices and inflation, adding roughly 2.4% to current rates if supply chains are disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz. The speaker critiques the idea that economic growth alone can "outrun" debt math given historically low GDP growth rates and suggests that relying on AI or crypto as saviors is akin to a fairy tale rather than a reliable plan. Instead, the proposed solution involves balancing the federal budget through spending cuts alongside specific policy shifts like de-globalization and potentially utilizing consumption taxes such as VAT if income tax hikes prove ineffective due to economic constraints. The advice concludes with practical steps for individuals: understanding inflation mechanics, owning tangible assets that appreciate against currency debasement, monitoring energy costs, maintaining emotional immunity from political narratives, and keeping cash reserves open while preparing for a future defined by maximum pain and unexpected opportunities.
Read the full video transcript
Right now, the United States is at the
same kind of instructional inflection
point that has preceded every major
social eruption in recorded history.
>> All you had to do was pay us enough to
live.
>> There goes your inventory.
>> It was a six-alarm fire that burned the
place to the ground. He uploaded the
video to Instagram himself because he
knew that the public is going to be on
his side. His name is Kamal Abdul
Kareem, a 29-year-old making roughly
$37,000 a year. The problem? An average
one-bedroom near the facility in
Ontario, California runs over 2,000
dollars a month. To him, the injustice
of the situation was obvious. The rich
abuse the masses and the masses suffer
as they must. Therefore, his act to him,
despite being arson, was actually a
service of justice. Now, how do I know
that he and a growing number of people
believe that this act of vigilantism was
actually justice? Because on his very
first phone call while in custody, he
compared himself to Luigi Mangione.
Mangione is the all too popular murderer
who shot and killed a health insurance
CEO in cold blood on a Manhattan
sidewalk back in December of '24. A
murder so shockingly well received by
the public that his legal defense fund
has already raised nearly a million
dollars from roughly 30,000
donors. Approximately 50% of American
college students sympathize more with
Mangione than the man that he killed.
Inequality has already surpassed
intolerable
and now instability in the Middle East
threatens to become the straw that
breaks the camel's back and I'm going to
prove it. There are just two paths
before us. If you want to avoid
calamity, it is imperative we take the
right one. I'll explain why in four
parts. Part three is what the vigilantes
do not understand. So, regardless of
what you think now, do not skip that
part. Welcome to part one, the two-sided
squeeze. Since 1979, worker productivity
in the United States has grown by 80.9%
but wages have only grown by 29.4%.
The last time America's wealth
concentration was this out of whack was
the Gilded Age. You know, the era of the
robber barons. And I mean that
comparison literally. You can actually
measure inequality. You use something
called the Gini coefficient. It peaked
in 1890 during the Gilded Age with a
Gini coefficient of 0.87.
It was a catastrophe that almost
destroyed America. Now, guess what
today's Gini coefficient is? 0.86.
We're only 0.01
behind our all-time worst score. In the
Gilded Age, the richest 4,000 families
in this country held as much wealth as
the other 11.6 million households
combined. Today, the top 1% hold as much
wealth as the bottom 90% combined. Same
stupid, socially suicidal picture but
130 years later. This isn't just kind of
uncomfortable, it's genuinely
destabilizing. And given all of the
local and global upheaval that we're all
living through right now, I really hope
I don't have to spend time convincing
you that things right now are extremely
unstable. This is what happens.
Inequality starts building up. Right now
in America, 10% of Americans own 93% of
all stocks and financial assets. But
that by itself does not cause people to
burn warehouses and shoot CEOs. For
that, you need a second ingredient,
inflation. Why? Because inflation is
what created the unaffordability crisis.
Right now, people are convinced that
billionaires are stealing money but the
reality is this is a politician and
central banking problem where we run
these insane deficits and then we money
print to cover the problem. And that is
what drives the K-shaped economy and
that is what creates the billionaire
class. And guess which political party
is driving the unaffordability crisis?
That's right, both of them. Until state
and federal budgets are balanced, you
are being stolen from by your elected
officials. It's not the wealthy stealing
from you. It is the politicians in
charge of the budget. An unbalanced
budget forces the government to money
print and when the government prints
money and it has been printing historic
amounts of money for over a decade, the
price of everything goes up, way up. And
when that happens, your purchasing power
goes down, way down. And the only
protection from that absolutely
despicable, immoral secret tax is to own
assets. That relationship is what
creates billionaires. Assets are things
whose value rises as more money is
printed. Stocks, real estate, business
ownership, etc. Assets are the only
escape from inflation. The bad news? 90%
of Americans barely have any at all.
It's like being inside of an x-ray
machine with no lead vest. In the moment
you don't realize a terrible thing is
happening to you, but in reality, that
thing is doing massive damage. You just
can't see it, but it's the very reason
you can't afford your rent and all of
the rent control in the world is not
going to help.
But that's a story for another deep
dive. In fact, it's right here. Now get
this. For six consecutive years through
2025, the bottom 80% of American
consumers failed to keep up with
inflation. It's been six straight years
of falling behind on the kinds of things
you can't cut. Housing, grocery, energy,
health care. These are necessities and
they're getting even more expensive
faster than before. So, when you've got
a full-time worker making $18 an hour
and taking home roughly $37,000
a year, but a one-bedroom apartment in
his neighborhood runs over $2,000 a
month, you're spending 65% of your
take-home pay just on rent. That's
before food, before gas, before saving
any money, before being able to buy the
assets that would protect you from the
inflation. When the necessities are
unaffordable and people's Instagram
reels are full of rich people flying
around on jets, [ __ ] gets burned and
uploaded to Instagram. History shows us
over and over that what breaks a society
is when inequality and unaffordability
happen at the same time like they are
now. People get squeezed from both sides
and they start looking for a way out
even if that way is ineffective and
violent. Now, there's a famous
experiment in behavioral economics.
Researchers give one person $100 and
tell them to split it with a stranger.
The stranger can accept or reject the
offer. If they reject it, though, nobody
gets anything. By pure logic, the
stranger should accept any amount of
money above zero. Something is always
better than nothing, but they don't
accept it. Consistently across cultures,
people will choose nothing over watching
someone else take a disproportionate
share. But what happens when the cause
of that disproportionate share is
misunderstood? For an individual,
rejecting the offer and getting nothing
is completely irrational, but the
instinct evolved because groups that
tolerate unfairness stop cooperating and
fall apart. What breaks a society is the
compressed middle, the people with just
enough time and money to see the
injustice and do something about it. And
ultimately, it's not the baseline
suffering that causes people to snap en
masse anyway. It's having inequality
meet unaffordability and then be hit
with a fresh shock when people have
completely run out of cushion. The bad
news for us is that shock is coming
right now. Welcome to part two. Let the
games begin. The world has a wild
history of economies getting out of
whack and then getting slapped back into
place. In 1786, American farmers who had
just fought
War for liberty were facing an
unaffordability crisis. Many were losing
their farms to debt collectors. Daniel
Shays led an armed revolt. In 1892,
Andrew Carnegie announced an 18% pay cut
at his most profitable steel plant. A
gunfight ensued and 12 people were
killed. In October of 2019, Chile raised
the price of a subway ticket by 4 cents.
It was the straw that broke the camel's
back and 1.2 million people took to the
streets. 30 people died. Billions in
property damage was done. These kinds of
unaffordability revolts happen
constantly throughout history all over
the world. They are mechanistic as well
as emotional. When people can't make
ends meet, someone will eventually meet
their end. Now, let's zoom in on the
Shays' Rebellion. By 1786, roughly 3
years after the farmers and tradespeople
who fought in the Revolutionary War
returned home, they were losing
everything. Not to a foreign enemy, to
debt collectors. Massachusetts had
slapped heavy taxes on its citizens to
pay off its own war debts. Sound
familiar? Money was scarce. Credit was
impossible. Courts were seizing farms
and throwing men in debtors' prison for
falling behind. These weren't hooligans
causing trouble. These were the men who
had fought and bled for the principle
that no government gets to crush the
people who built the country. So, Daniel
Shays led his infamous armed revolt.
Ultimately, it was put down, but it
terrified the founders. Madison wrote
about it obsessively. Hamilton cited it
by name. Both of them pointed to Shays'
Rebellion as proof that the first
framework for the American government,
the Federalist Papers, wasn't strong
enough to handle the reality of economic
despair. It couldn't stop the rage. It
couldn't channel it anywhere productive.
The revolt was a direct catalyst for the
Constitutional Convention of 1787.
The very thing that gave birth to our
Constitution,
which believe it or not, most people
don't know this, it didn't get written
and ratified until 12 years after the
Declaration of Independence was signed.
The Constitution was literally partly
America's structural answer to what
happens when the economy breaks. A
deeper look at what happened in Chile
proves that this is not a thing of the
past, nor something unique to America.
This is an artifact of the human mind
and the societies that we create. Chile
wasn't a failing state. In fact, it was
one of the most economically successful
countries in Latin America. The
protesters who took to the streets due
to a 30-peso price increase, again, it's
about 4 cents in US dollars, had a
phrase that said everything.
No son 30 pesos, son 30 años. It's not
30 pesos, it's 30 years. Meaning, this
most recent raise is just the straw that
broke the camel's back. The middle class
had been getting squeezed for decades,
and people will only put up with so
much. The 4 cents was just the moment
that the last bit of margin disappeared,
and people simply weren't going to put
up with it anymore. Now, the important
thing for all of us in this moment is to
understand that the baseline inequality
is now colliding with a baseline
unaffordability crisis, and the trap is
set. It's going to snap closed when a
fresh shock hits this already taut
system. Now, with that in mind, look at
where we are right now. The bottom 80%
of American earners have been getting
hammered by inflation for years. The
ends officially no longer meet. Personal
debt is drowning most people, and they
see no way out. And right at that
moment, the United States and Israel
launched Operation Epic Fury against
Iran. Iran responded by closing the
Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway,
which sees roughly 20% of the world's
oil supply pass through it. Oil ended up
going from $70 a barrel to over 120 at
one point. It's all over the map all the
time. Gas went from under $3 a gallon to
over $4 nationally, over $5 here in
California. The IMF has a specific
formula for oil-created inflation. Every
10% rise in oil prices produces a 0.4%
rise in inflation. Oil is up more than
70%
since the war began. That's 2.4%
inflation. Now, in fairness, the price
has gone up and come back down, gone up
and come back down again. So, who knows
where it will be by the time you hear
this. But know this, if inflation
doesn't come back down and stay down,
there's likely to be a real problem. The
US is already in the grips of an
unaffordability crisis, and we will not
be able to tolerate an increase in
prices via inflation, whether it comes
from oil or good old-fashioned money
printing to cover deficit spending. This
will become our version of Chile's four
cents. Different country, but it's the
same mechanism.
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to the show.
So, welcome to part three. Balance the
budget or there will be blood. Every
major period of sustained economic
inequality in recorded history has ended
one of two ways: structural reform or
mass violence. History says that there's
no third option. The Gilded Age,
pre-revolutionary France, Romanov
Russia, Weimar Germany. Every time you
combine extreme inequality with an
unaffordability crisis long enough, one
of those two things happens. The
structure gets fixed or the structure
gets destroyed. This is why the
Democrats will rightly run on a platform
of affordability during the midterms.
But, watch the policies they put
forward. If they aren't about balancing
the budget, it will all be for naught.
Same with the Republicans. Independent
voters will swing from one side to the
other and back again hoping one of them
is finally going to fix it. But, you
can't fix it with words. The budget must
be balanced. The great news is the way
out of our problems is relatively
simple. But, if it doesn't begin with a
balanced budget, you can know every word
out of their mouths after that is
completely illogical and is not going to
save you. Even the historical violence
didn't solve the problem. And that's one
of the most important things I want to
get across today.
I understand why someone wants to burn a
warehouse. I understand why people feel
violently towards those that they think
are holding them back. But, the reality
of how violence impacts the actual
change is that it simply makes things so
painful
that everyone will finally be willing to
accept austerity and balance the budget.
But, there's no way around needing to
balance the budget. And here's the part
the people cheering on Kamal Abdul Karim
and Luigi Mangione have to contend with.
When the structure gets destroyed, when
mass violence is the path that people
choose, the people who suffer the most
are never the people at the top, at
least not the bulk of them. They have
lawyers, security, insurance, continuity
plans, and extreme mobility. You'll
catch a few of them, but overall they're
going to be fine. Kimberly Clark's
supply chain was already routing around
the fire as it was still burning, and
ultimately they didn't miss a beat. The
people who will suffer from that fire
are the people who were already
struggling to make ends meet. Namely,
the 20 co-workers of Abdul Karim who
lost their job when he burned the place
down. It had nothing to do with the wage
structure, the inflation rate, or the
balance sheet of NFI Industries that
owned the warehouse. They were just
working a night shift trying to put food
on the table. The fire does not help
them at all. Only a balanced federal
budget and a strong economy will help.
Now, let me show you something about how
the anger as solution path actually
works. Take one of the most famous
examples of a violent uprising bringing
about change, the French Revolution. The
whole idea of let them eat cake, it was
so out of touch. Kill the morons and let
peace reign, right? That's how people
think about it. But Marie Antoinette
never actually said the line that
supposedly justified killing her and the
other aristocrats. The whole let them
eat cake thing was written by
Jean-Jacques Rousseau in 1765, when
Marie Antoinette was only 9 years old,
living in Austria, and had never even
been to France. Rousseau attributed the
line to someone else that he called a
great princess. It wasn't her. Not one
newspaper from the actual French
Revolution ever cited that quote. The
people who guillotined her never used it
as evidence against her. It wasn't
attached to her name in print until
1843,
50 years after her execution, as people
were trying to whitewash and sanitize
what had actually happened. And we all
risk losing the actual lesson of the
catastrophe of the French Revolution,
the French Revolution did not produce
equality. It produced the reign of
terror.
17,000 executions, the majority of them
not aristocrats, but instead the middle
class, lawyers, merchants, journalists,
farmers, and eventually the very
revolutionaries themselves. Robespierre,
the man who built the guillotine murder
machine, was himself fed into it. And
into all of that chaos,
stepped Napoleon.
Not somebody who ushered in equality,
instead it was somebody who took all of
that revolutionary energy and pointed it
outward and created 20 years of war all
across Europe. 3 to 6 million people
dead. The working class men who had
stormed the Bastille dreaming of bread
and dignity ended up dying in Russian
snowfields. Again, the rage is
justified. It was justified then, it's
justified now. Reform was necessary
then, reform is necessary now, but we've
got to get the policy right because when
policy is dictated by bloodlust and raw
emotion, rather than the physics of
money, the outcome is guaranteed to be
terrible. And there's a knowable reason
why, because it doesn't address the
underlying economic policy decisions
that caused the problem in the first
place. And that brings me to a brutal
truth. This moment in history is going
to be more difficult to unwind than the
Gilded Age. To turn the ship around
during the Gilded Age, Teddy Roosevelt,
one of the four people on Mount
Rushmore,
what he focused on was breaking the
monopolies, always a good idea. Labor
laws got passed, absolutely fantastic.
Progressive taxation came in, wonderful.
That was sufficient to change the
underlying math, and it gave birth to
the longest sustained run of middle
class wealth growth in American history.
But the Gilded Age reformers didn't have
to crawl out from under crushing debt
and the devastating effects of money
printing. When Teddy Roosevelt went
after Standard Oil and US Steel, the
government wasn't already running a $2
trillion annual deficit. Wages weren't
being eroded every year by the money
printing that those deficits that we now
have require. The structural reforms
they put in place had room to work
because the fiscal foundation wasn't
actively rotting beneath their feet.
But, our foundation is rotten. Right
now, the inequality that we're suffering
from is being driven by deficit spending
and money printing, not monopolies and
under taxation of the wealthy. I know
that is a very popular mantra. The US
already spends the same amount per
citizen as Sweden, France, Germany, and
the Netherlands. And we massively
outspend places like Canada and the UK.
And the countries that spend more than
us, while still sticking to something
closer to a balanced budget, do so by
taxing
everyone. And they do it through taxes
like VAT. Now, a lot of people don't
understand what VAT is, but a VAT is a
value-added tax, meaning it's a
consumption tax. Everybody's going to
pay it if they buy something. So, the
poorest of the poor are going to be
paying that tax when they buy, and this
is why people say consumption taxes hurt
the poorest the most. So, if you're a
Trump fan and you support massively
expanding tariffs and other consumption
taxes, then you can at least partially
tax your way out of this hole. That
would alleviate a small part of the
burden if you didn't increase your
spending. But, you will still usher in
austerity. You'll just do it via tax
instead of spending cuts. And taxes on
the people who can least afford the
taxes. Given the level of fiscal
mismanagement and fraud, you will have
all of the pain and only a very small
fraction of the gain if you try to do
this via income tax. That's why
increased taxation is not the sensible
solution to this problem. You'll have to
tax the very people you're trying to
help. The only way to capture an
additional $2 trillion via tax without
destroying the economy is to somehow,
someway usher in an absolutely
unprecedented
amount of economic growth. But given
that our GDP right now is currently
growing at a slower than expected rate,
I would absolutely not count on that.
The reality is
without dramatic change to how we think
about government spending, inflation
will keep destroying the middle class.
As long as we run grotesque deficits,
everything is a band-aid on a severed
artery. The government is currently
collecting a staggering $5 trillion in
tax. That's about twice what China
collects, and they have four times the
population. The US does not have a tax
revenue problem. America has a spending
problem. Despite our insane $5 trillion
tax raise, we come up $2 trillion short
because of our ridiculous $7 trillion a
year budget. And that gap has to be
funded somehow, and the way it gets
funded is by using inflation to steal
from everyone who holds dollars. Again,
it hurts the working and middle class
the most. And that means the reform this
moment demands is harder than what the
Gilded Age required. You have to fix the
inequality precisely
by fixing the mechanism that keeps
making affordability worse. If you don't
do that, nothing will solve the
affordability crisis. You could tax the
wealthy at 100% and even if in some
magical fairy land where that actually
increase your tax revenue. Spoiler
alert, in the real world it never does.
Look up the Laffer curve. But even if it
did, you would still only buy yourself
an extra handful of years before you
were right back in this position. But
you would be much, much worse off
because you would have decimated the
economy by destroying the only machine
that has ever created prosperity, namely
the free markets. And you have to
somehow get people to vote for austerity
at the exact moment that they're angry
enough to burn buildings. So welcome to
part four, moving forward well
regardless of lunatic politicians. The
last time America grew its way out of a
debt crisis of this magnitude was right
after World War II.
Americans were happy, optimistic, and
they were helping much of the world
rebuild. GDP grew at over 4% annually
for nearly three decades. We're
currently growing at roughly 0.5%
and for everyone marching in the streets
and campaigning on more tax, you have to
contend with this reality. For every
dollar of new tax revenue collected
since 2019, the federal government has
added $1.58
in new spending. You can't fill a
bathtub with the drain open.
Every country except Japan that has
spent any meaningful time above 130%
debt to GDP has ended in internal
conflict, revolution, or outright
economic collapse. The United States is
currently at roughly 123%
and climbing. For those reasons and
more, right now America is on a one-way
collision course with mass violence. Now
let's talk about the solution and what's
standing in the way of it.
Then I'll map out how I'm thinking about
positioning myself in case the political
machine continues its insane
dysfunction. Remember Shays' Rebellion?
Farmers who fought for liberty because
they were losing their farms to debt
collectors. the founders looked at that
rage and didn't just dismiss it. They
asked what structural failure produced
it and built the United States
Constitution as an answer. Remember
homestead? Workers who bled for wages
that couldn't cover their bills? The
violence didn't fix the math. What fixed
it was a generation that looked at the
carnage and demanded specific structural
reform. Anti-trust law, labor
protections, progressive taxation until
the math actually changed. Both times
the people who solved the problem
understood one thing the angry people
didn't. The target isn't a group of
people, the target is the mechanism, the
way that the economy actually works.
What specific part of the economy is
broken and then address that and it's
going to be different every time. If we
try to run the anti-monopoly playbook
when monopolies aren't our problem or we
try to tax people more when we're
already nearing the top of the Laffer
curve, it's not going to work. The
politicians and central bankers didn't
wave a magic wand and break the economy.
They enacted specific policies that had
negative consequences. We have to fix
those policies and change the mechanism
if we want to solve the problem. Taxing
billionaires more doesn't actually
generate more revenue, at least not
enough to deal with the problems that we
have and even if it did, it wouldn't
solve the problem of a chronically
unbalanced budget. The only thing that
actually stops the middle class
destruction machine is a balanced budget
and a de-globalized world. Could do a
whole deep dive on that. Now, I know
that sounds like fantasy right now and
honestly politically it probably is. No
one's going to get elected on austerity
right now, certainly not during a
populist moment like this one. But
crazier things have happened and I think
we all have to try and make sure that
this message gets heard. So, as a quick
aside from our economics, ask every
candidate in the midterms one question
regardless of party. What are you going
to stop spending money on so we can
balance the budget? Okay, let's talk
about the go forward plan. First, we
need to understand how Trump's radical
and so far reckless restructuring of the
world order is likely to play out.
Trump's stated plan was growth. Tariffs
to bring manufacturing home,
deregulation to unleash the private
sector, onshoring critical industries to
bring investments and jobs. The theory
being that if you can generate enough
economic growth, you can outrun the debt
math. It's not a crazy idea on paper.
The problem is the scale of what's
required now. The debt is soul-crushing.
The annual deficit is staggering. The
growth rate needed is historically
unprecedented, and our current
trajectory is terrible. We have
slower-than-expected GDP growth, layoffs
up dramatically over 2025, and a wildly
K-shaped consumer economy running on a
shrinking cohort of wealthy spenders.
None of that supports the bet that we're
going to grow our way out of this. So,
as I think through how to invest, how to
position myself, I know that I've got to
think through the global chaos that we
are going through right now because of
what's happening in Iran, we are in an
incredibly precarious situation. So, I
am trying to build a mental map of what
Trump is doing, what will happen whether
he succeeds or fails, and from that,
I'll be able to think my way through the
problem. Now, I think Trump's original
plan went something like this. Accept a
multipolar world, but do everything we
can to stop China from taking the number
one spot and replacing the dollar as the
world's reserve currency. Exit the world
stage and focus on building up the
greater North America. Kick China out of
our hemisphere and control as much oil
as he can. Shore up the petrodollar and
control more oil by targeting Iran.
Strengthen the US economy by betting big
on AI and crypto. AI is the ultimate
military weapon and the ultimate
prosperity generator, and whoever wins
AI is going to win everything and crypto
solidifies the US dollars dominance by
creating massive global appetite for our
debt. Think he was also thinking secure
foreign investments in the US AI
infrastructure via the GCC nations as
they have become the global home for
capital. But as Mike Tyson says,
everybody has a plan until they get
punched in the face. But even if we face
plant any Iran like it looks like we're
going to, there's plenty of lemonade to
be made from those lemons. If oil
becomes more expensive because it has to
travel through contested waters, people
can start buying oil directly from the
US.
We start to look like a rogue nation,
there's no doubt about that, but it will
still boost the US economy.
America is the world's largest oil
producer. When 20% of global oil supply
gets strangled in a choke point that we
don't depend on, we will potentially
capture some market share from every
competitor who does depend on it. Now, I
don't think that was Trump's plan when
he started. This was not some brilliant
40 chess move and honestly, I think he's
going to keep fighting in the Middle
East long past when he should have
ejected out. But even if he does,
there's money to be made in both victory
and failure. The question is will it be
enough to get us out of our debt and I
think the answer is no, not unless we
balance the budget. AI is the only thing
that might just be enough, but that
still feels a little too fairy tale to
count on. The growth required to
actually outrun this debt math is so
historically unusual that I would not
bet my financial future on it happening.
Which means you need a plan that works
whether it succeeds or fails. Here's how
I'm thinking my way through it. First, I
have to understand what inflation
actually is and stop trying to fight it
politically before I protected myself
from it financially and I highly
encourage you to do the same. Second,
own assets, always and forever. In an
inflationary environment, you have to
have assets, and in the current
geopolitical setup, assets don't just
protect you from inflation, they allow
you to benefit from the GCC funneling
their sovereign wealth into American AI
infrastructure. But do keep your eyes
peeled that if things go poorly for the
GCC nations in the Iran conflict and
they're forced to pull their investment
dollars back, that should influence the
way that you're thinking about
investing. Third, watch the cost of
energy. If oil stays elevated, the
roughly 2.4% additional inflation is
likely to bring with it an acceleration
of anger in the populace. Fourth, make
sure you're emotionally immune from the
narrative manipulation that will be used
to rile up both sides of the political
aisle as we approach the midterms, and
make sure you watch how those narratives
are affecting others. And fifth, keep
some cash on hand so that your options
are open. The only guarantee I can make
is that the future is going to be
surprising. Also, markets tend to follow
the path of maximum pain. The things
people already understand are already
priced in. The sure-fire bets that make
the headlines will get priced in almost
instantly. The vulnerabilities almost
always come from some unexpected oblique
angle. The people who came out ahead
after the Gilded Age weren't the ones
who predicted the crash specifically.
They were the ones who understood the
structural direction of the economy,
positioned accordingly, and held through
the inevitable volatility that came with
a system under that much pressure. The
system that we're in is under enormous
pressure.
That is going to create opportunity and
calamity in equal measure, so be
paranoid. Do not assume you're on the
right side of any one equation. Brace
yourself for unrest, but don't crawl
into a bunker. Let me leave you with
this. Kamal Abdul Karim, the guy that
burned down the toilet paper
distribution center, he He right about
one thing. People have to make enough
money to live, and if they don't, they
will burn down the system. He was right
that the math doesn't work for millions
of Americans. He was right that the
people at the top of this economy have
accumulated an obscene amount of wealth,
while the people at the bottom have been
systematically stripped of any cushion
whatsoever. But, what he gets wrong
is massive, and it's the mechanism by
which all of this is happening. The
insurance executive and the warehouse
owner, they're not the machine. They're
inside the machine. The machine is a $2
trillion annual deficit that turns the
gap between what you earn and what you
owe into somebody else's asset
appreciation. You don't fix that with a
lighter, though. You can't burn or kill
your way to a solution. You fix it by
making it politically impossible for any
candidate from any party to get elected
without a credible plan to balance the
budget. That's a harder ask than burning
a building. I get it. It requires
economic literacy instead of the raw
emotion that is so easy to come by,
especially right now. And it requires us
all to hold the line on the standard
that we will expect candidates to
balance the budget. But, it's also the
only ask that has ever actually worked.
That's what this moment demands.
Economies have physics that can't be
ignored.
That doesn't mean people shouldn't be
angry right now. They should be. But, it
does mean that if they don't aim their
anger at the actual source of the
problem, the rage will only bring more
suffering, not less. The people who
understand the physics of this moment
have an enormous advantage over the
people who don't. Once you understand
it, you can at least use it to protect
you and your loved ones. With enough
will and focus, anything is possible.
These problems are hard, but they
certainly aren't new. Every generation
that has faced the collision of
inequality and unaffordability has had a
choice between the rational path and the
emotional one. Most choose emotion. But,
we certainly don't have to. We can solve
this problem. All right, if you guys
want to see me explore ideas like this
in real time, be sure to hit that
subscribe button right now and join me
Monday, Wednesdays, and Fridays 7:00
a.m. Pacific time where we go live. I
will see you there. Till next time, my
friends. Be legendary. Take care. Peace.
>> If you like this conversation, check out
this episode to learn more.
AI has already changed the world in a
way that most people simply do not
understand yet. Last month, the chair of
the Federal Reserve walked up to a
podium and admitted what most people
could already