Will Trump’s Pressure on Canada Break the USMCA?

When faced with President Trump's economic pressure, most US allies and partners have fallen in line. But last week, Prime Minister Carney chose to take a different path. He said that US demands of Canada were unreasonable, that they challenged Canada's sovereignty, and that he could not accept President Trump's demands. What does this mean for Canada going forward? How ugly is this going to get? And does this risk unraveling the basis of free trade in North America, the USMCA agreement? >> [music] >> Okay, so to talk about the latest with Canada, but also more broadly to talk about the politics of free trade in North America, I have brought together two of our experts from the Americas program. Um Chris Hernandez Roy, um acting director and senior fellow, you were just on State of Play. Um I >> Okay, this is probably the consequence of uh the new national security strategy that said there would be so much focus on the we- um on the Western Hemisphere. You were just talking about Cuba. Now um back to talk about the newest crisis, which is to the north of the border uh with Canada. Um great to have you back. Thanks so much. >> Thanks, Will. >> Um and then I'm really excited to introduce um Diego Marroquin Buitrago for the first time on State of Play. Um Diego joined CSIS about a year ago, I think, um and has spent a lot of of his um focus on the USMCA. Uh and uh is a fellow in the Americas program. So, Diego, thanks so much. Wonderful to have you. >> Happy to be here. >> And before we get going, because this story is moving so rapidly, I should say we are recording this at 9:12 a.m. on Wednesday, the 26th of August. So, just in case something um, even crazier or more dramatic happens uh, in the next kind of 24 hours or so before this comes out, just wanted to to flag that. Um, but I'd actually like to start not with Canada specifically, but more broadly on some of the context and the USMCA. So, Diego, can I ask you to give us just a really brief rundown of what is the USMCA? Um, and and and kind of where do things stand at the moment? >> Well, that is a good question. So, USMCA, the US, Mexico, Canada agreement. It is NAFTA successor, the North America free trade agreement. Uh, in many ways, USMCA is a little bit stricter than NAFTA. I If you could come up with a analogy, I would I think of NAFTA as a baby boomer mom that let kids roam around free uh, as long as they got home before it got dark. I like to think of USMCA as the millennial mom. It's She's a little bit more overzealous, more strict, uh, but you can still do things as as a kid. So, NAFTA had 22 chapters that regulated and facilitated trade. USMCA has 34. USMCA is was implemented in 2020. So, we were talking about digital trade, labor, the environment, other things that perhaps in the early '90s weren't uh, priorities. So, I will start with a Uh, all the The other thing that's different, for example, is that NAFTA was NAFTA for everyone. USMCA is different for every each of the three countries. It's USMCA, US, Mexico, Canada for the US. It is CUSMA in Canada because it starts with Canada, US, Mexico. >> Oh, different names. Okay. >> Uh, we have T-MEC in Mexico. We we even have a French acronym for uh, for it. And I'll let Chris say it, but I think it's ACEUM. >> I don't know the French >> [laughter] >> for the Quebecois. Um but just to I mean simply put USMCA is how we build things together. It's how a miner in Mississippi gets the steel that it gets sent to Mississauga in Canada for an auto worker to work on it. Then it will finally be sent to Monterey where engineer will put the car together and will finally and will have a an F-150 or a GM Silverado that someone will be driving a few months after that. >> So just to clarify then so >> there? >> Yeah, please Chris. >> So just two things. It's it's a North American production platform between the three countries is what it is. Right? And and one other really important bit of context here which is particularly relevant given that we're talking about this now and the tension with Canada. You said crisis with Canada. It's a crisis in Canada. It's not a crisis in the United States. The really important bit here to remember is USMCA was signed by and negotiated by the first Trump administration. >> Okay, that's exactly what I was about to say. >> it as the best agreement ever. >> Yeah, okay. So yeah, as soon as you said 2020, that's what I was thinking. This this was I don't know President Trump's baby might be too strong but there's something that that he came up with. So okay. So and and Diego, I know there was a deadline in was it July earlier earlier this summer? So so what is where do things stand at the moment? Is it still in effect? >> Yeah, so I mean the main two differences between NAFTA and USMCA one was that NAFTA didn't have an expiration date and a review clause. USMCA does. Um every six years the agreement has to be get reviewed by the leaders of the three countries. And if that review is successful, the agreement continues on gets extended for another 16 years. July 1st, 2026 was the first opportunity for Mexico, the United States, and Canada to extend the agreement. Mexico said yes. Canada said yes. The United States said no. They didn't want to rubber-stamp and extend the agreement. And what we're dealing now with is this larger, longer protracted negotiation where the White House is trying to extract more concessions, trying to make more changes to the agreement. Canada is holding back. Mexico is still engaging with the US and I mean that will likely this negotiation will likely end maybe not this year, perhaps the next year. So, it's we're in for for the long run. But in the interim >> What it means too, well, is with the US not renewing, it doesn't mean that the agreement expires. It just means they have to go through a series of annual reviews at least for 10 years. After 10 years, it would expire. But at any point in those annual reviews, if if the three of them agree, then it gets extended for 16 years. >> years. >> So, where are we on the USMCA review knowing that the US said no? And we still have an agreement, but we would I mean I think the three countries would like to get it extended at some point. So, and and Chris has said this before, so I I talk about this as the good, the bad, and the ugly like the old spaghetti western film. The the good is mostly Mexican. It's procedural. Once we had a no from the US, Mexico and the United States started negotiating separately. They had three negotiation rounds already. Multiple working groups have been talking for a year. Uh Mexico is trying to get rid of most of the trade and non-trade items that the Office of the US Trade Representative identified over the last year. So, they they're making progress, although it's slow progress. The bad is structural. I think that tariffs are going to be here no matter if we have an agreement or not. That's I mean some sort of the the realization moving forward. Uh the United States raised $264 billion in tariffs before refunds last year. So, once you get a a revenue stream of that size, given the fiscal position of the United States government, it's going to be difficult ask to ask for Republicans or Democrats to to give that up. And the ugly, and I'll like to get Chris to comment on this is that Canada is not part of the process. Canada is not part of the US-Mexico negotiations, was negotiating with the US separately, but negotiations collapsed last Saturday. Canada is going to retaliate against US tariffs, and President Trump has also announced more tariffs on Canadian goods. So, uh it's it's it's becoming a little bit of a fight here. >> Okay, and I want to talk more about that fight, cuz that's obviously the hook for why we're having this this conversation today. So, um Chris, again, granted that we are talking at kind of 9:00 a.m. on on Wednesday morning, can you just run down the latest of where things stand at the moment in the negotiations between Canada and the US? >> Sure. Let Let me Let me start, Will, by also saying um that several months ago at The Wall Street Journal the United States' leading newspaper and leading sort of economic newspaper called this the dumbest trade war ever. The dumbest trade war ever, because all it does is hurt uh consumers and businesses, particularly small businesses in both Canada and the United States. Nobody wins this. It just drives up prices for everyone. Um where we are right now and what's happened uh let's also remember that this was an agreement that the president signed in 2018, and then unilaterally decided that he wanted to make changes to it. Some of the things that the president had wanted to change in the agreement are, you know, the evolution of trade agreements, they might be legitimate and you can negotiate in good faith to find a solution. But, the president is intent on doing a number of other things, including major reshoring of manufacturing to the United States, particularly in the auto sector. Um he's interested in, you know, these are laudable goals, but it he's interested in uh shoring up and rebuilding uh American capacity to uh produce steel, to produce aluminum, um enhance tariffs on that. Uh he is interested in aligning the three countries in a sort of a common front against transshipment and against unfair trade practices from Canada. All of these things can be negotiated. The problem with with Canada has been though, and some long-standing irritants between Canada and the United States like in the dairy sector and the and in softwood lumber. The problem the way it Canadians perceive this is, apart from some of these grievances which I think Canada would be willing to negotiate, uh some of the terms, some of the ideas behind this is really more about economic nationalism and and what the Canadians are worried about in Prime Minister Carney's words is turning Canada into a subsidiary of the United States. Um and with, you know, curbs on Canadian nationalism. The The recent uh breakdown reportedly involves the US asking Canada to forswear making deals with other countries that the US doesn't approve of. Uh touches very sensitive topics in Canada that that are are at the heart of Canadian unity and Canadian identity such as the French language. Um >> Yeah. >> Also, Canada's ability to sell uh its commodities uh freely on the world market like uh asking for the right of first refusal for critical minerals. All of these things really impinge on Canada's nationality, uh, on its sovereignty, uh, and this is why Prime Minister Carney was unable to uh, to sign this particular, uh, this particular >> And I saw a an interview with President Trump yesterday and he he basically said that he added in extra demands at the very last minute. He he he admitted that. He was like, "Oh, yes, that sounds like something I would do." So, it sounds like this negotiation shift took a turn sort of for the worst right at the end. Did it always seem like it was going to be very difficult or is your understanding that it was reasonably good faith and then at the end you know, there was a turn? >> I think the Canadians perceive this as a broader strategy that the Trump administration has announced through its Don Roe doctrine, which I've argued in the past, I never thought applied to Canada, but lo and behold, it certainly does now. Uh, really, uh, wanting to dominate the hemisphere and to dominate it not necessarily in a win-win situation, but to dominate it where the United States has certain interests and it's going to pursue those interests regardless of what its neighbors, friends, and allies think. Um, and in this sense, uh, what I think the Canadians are seeing is that this was not an agreement to reach uh, not not not an effort to win uh, to have a win-win agreement. This was more of an effort to put Canada in its place, maybe for the reason that, uh, that Diego said at the beginning, that it's or you said, perhaps, will for forgive me in the introduction. That Canada, uh, was one of only two countries to retaliate against, uh, the United States. It's the only >> The other being China. >> The other being China and the point is it's the only democratic country. Of all the you know, democratic countries on earth, it's the only one that's retaliated against the United States and now, not once but twice, right? Um, but this is against the backdrop of an agreement that was signed, that was ratified in a bipartisan manner in Congress and then the administration chose to unilaterally change. Um, so these uh it it's from the Canadian perspective, it's it's no longer really about a trade agreement and and certainly irritants that uh you know, people can disagree about but then come to the table to try to find a good solution to. It's more about putting Canada in its place. Uh and it's more about um economic nationalism on the part of the United States. >> And on a personal level, I will also argue that it this is part of the White House's negotiation strategy. So, put some demands in, then like increase the pressure as much as you can, you know, maximalist demands and try to walk back on some of them hoping that you would move the other partner closer to your position. Uh I would also argue that the Canadian government is not just negotiating with the office of the US Trade Representative. There are other actors within the US government government that controls some other tariff tools like the Department of Commerce, for example. And different actors within the US government were asking for different things. So, that was also perhaps one of the things that made it difficult to reach an agreement. One party asking for one thing, another asking for another thing and then when you put those together, there were some things that the Canadians were simply just not going to accept. >> Mhm. >> And and let me add something sort of maybe um to understand perhaps some of the motivations that the United States has. Um, you know, the Canadians and particularly Prime Minister Carney has with his famous Davos really poked his finger in in President Donald Trump's eye. So, while for some people that might have been a feel-good speech, for others they think that that was perhaps quite unwise. So, there there's there's an element here that goes beyond just state-to-state negotiations. There's there's clearly some personal motivations behind uh the United States or I should say President Trump's uh I was about to say obsession. His his his fixation perhaps is a better word uh with with with Canada and and trying to bend uh the Canadians to to his will. >> And I want to talk a little bit about Canada's um ability to withstand uh President Trump's pressure because now, I mean, terms have entered around like trade war, economic coercion, um you know, on on on one hand, clearly the US economy is much larger than Canada's. So, does Canada really have the ability to you know, really go into this fight and and and have a chance of of withstanding this pressure um or does it seem more likely that it's, you know, sort of rhetorical for now, but ultimately Canada's going to need to uh make seriously serious compromises um to to uh avoid, you know, this this destroying its economy? >> Yeah, um I mean, let's just start with the basic fact that the Canadian economy is something like 11 times, maybe even 12 times smaller um than the American economy. Uh there's no doubt that President Trump can inflict more pain on Canada than Canada can inflict back on the United States um without triggering what I think in Canada is called the nuclear option, which would be putting tax export taxes on things like electricity, oil, potash, which would really hurt the United States. But I think that would be very unwise if Canada went down that road. Um but I think even if Trump can inflict more pain, I think Prime Minister Carney can endure more pain even if not for for very long. I think this is part of the strategy actually. Um as we get closer to the midterms. Carney has a 60% approval rating in Canada, which is incredibly high in modern Canadian politics. You have to think of a country that has like four major parties. So 60% approval is is incredible. He also has the support of 76% of Canadians. A poll that just came out a day or two ago for breaking off the trade talks. Um so he has he comes from a position of real political strength. Um and the country's also made a windfall from higher oil prices. Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the United States. Um uh in part because in large part because of the war in Iran driving up worldwide oil prices. In contrast, uh Trump has like a 33% approval rating um and it's trending down. And his party is staring down as I said a second ago a complicated midterm election in 10 weeks or so. >> of Yeah, just a couple of >> where affordability is a central theme uh and which the trade war with Canada will will make worse on top of the fact that the Iran war has, you know, led diesel for instance to be $5 a gallon. So um there's no doubt that the president can inflict more pain. Uh The Canadians are in a mood to endure some pain. It's a question of how long this standoff can last. >> Yeah. And Diego, I I want to bring Mexico into this conversation as well. How is How How is the Mexican government seeing these tensions? How are they concerned that you know, President Trump could try and do something similar to Mexico? You said that the US and Mexico had been negotiating bilaterally recently. So are there implications for those for economic ties with Mexico and the US? >> Well, I mean it's just proof that President Sheinbaum's more conciliatory approach has led to a lower level of tariffs for the first time in a long time because some people complain that maybe Mexico by negotiating by conceding in other areas of the bilateral relationship was not the best approach because maybe they weren't getting anything in return. The Canadians weren't giving anything but they weren't getting anything on on the other hand. I think the calculus of President Sheinbaum was very different compared to Prime Minister Carney. For President Sheinbaum, extending USMCA is existential to the success of her party. USMCA is Mexico's engine for economic growth. Close to 80% of Mexico's GDP is tied to trade. Over 80% of Mexican exports go to the US. Without those exports, the economy would completely stagnate and with I mean without economic growth it would it would be impossible to maintain the social programs and monetary transfers that have made her party so successful. For President For Prime Minister Carney, it's the completely opposite. The closer he appears to be with the US, the more he engages with the White House, it's it's costly politically. So I think that's one of the main differences. The economic side and also the electoral political considerations behind it. For Mexico, knowing that the US-Canada talks collapsed perhaps presents an opportunity to get a a better deal. I mean, whatever happens in the Mexico US Mexico talks becomes, I think, the floor for uh whenever Canada and the US pick up uh where they left. >> Interesting. Um so, maybe now we should sort of zoom out a bit and talk about the future of the USMCA. I mean, is it even possible to talk about a free trade agreement when we have these kinds of of tariffs being threatened and imposed on each other? Does this mean that I I guess I I just love to hear what what what do you think this means for those negotiations that we were talking about at the start and and more broadly for the future of the agreement? Chris, can I start with you? >> Mhm. >> Sure. I mean, for for Canada, it means that the USMCA negotiations are probably even further away than they were prior to last weekend in the sense that the issues that have been put on the table um that were on the table and that were being discussed by the two countries uh are seen as things that need to be sorted out first before then tackling some of the longer-term and and more complicated issues around rules of origin, for instance, um that that uh the president has also signaled he wants changes in the agreement. Um so, for Canada, it needs to get this impasse with the United States, um which as I said, there's a there's a standoff here and both sides have um have a reason to to dig in. Uh this needs to be solved before uh there can be a a return not even a return cuz they they weren't even talking about it. They turn to before they can turn to uh discussions around um the renewal or the modification of of USMCA. So, what I think it does is it it pushes out the window, at least on Canada's perspective, um uh for engaging in the actual USMCA renegotiations. >> Okay. And and and and just in broader terms, I think the effect is just uncertainty. Uncertainty is the only constant within North America. We have an agreement, we still have an agreement at least until 2036, but we have tariffs on top of it, we have threats on top of it. And that makes it very difficult for companies, like multinational companies, but also small and medium enterprises to to build, to expand their production, to invest into the country. I mean, again, USMCA are just the rules of the game on how to better invest, better trade, uh, face lower frictions. And if you don't know what the rules of the game are going to be a week from now, 2 years from now, just makes it very very difficult to invest, to grow, uh, to bet in North America. So, USMCA survives on paper, but we have no clarity as to where we're going, uh, moving forward. >> Interesting. >> And and if I may, if I may. >> We're seeing the president increasingly chip away at the agreement in the sense that if you now uh, the president has threatened additional tariffs, uh, beginning January 1st of 2027, uh, including on auto parts, which up until now from Canada, which up until now have not been subject to a tariff. Um, and so things that that were carved out before, that were still functioning under USMCA, um, in the future, if this doesn't get resolved, we can see, um, more, uh, less carve-outs, more, uh, debilitating of the agreement. >> And just like the cover of the latest Foreign Affairs, it's all a chipping away at the United States uh, most important allies, I would argue. I We think of I mean, Canada's like a reserved war of goodwill. It used to be I mean really deep like like 2 years ago. It's It's pretty shallow now. Like what we're looking at is like a real rupture and then like some Canadians were really feeling raged about what's happened to what they thought was was their uh most trusted partner. >> Yeah, and and for Canada some of the stuff just doesn't make sense. Reshoring American automotive companies from Canada into the US is not going to lead to Canadians buying those cars back from the US. It's going to lead to Canadians buying those cars from somewhere else. >> Mhm. >> And and I think um Prime Minister Carney has sort of shown that he has other options, right? I think there's some big investment conference coming up um next month with a lot of sovereign wealth funds coming um and I think trying to show Canada has other options. It's not just dependent on the US. >> The I mean Carney has run uh well, he hasn't run. He he has built uh this notion of and I think rightly so that Canada's over-dependence on the United States, which used to be a strength, is now suddenly a vulnerability. And therefore Canada needs to diversify um to other partners uh and to build the infrastructure necessary uh for Canada to more easily export to other parts of the globe. This is one of the reasons why Trans Mountain pipeline uh bringing oil to from Alberta to British Columbia has been such a success because it allows uh Canada to send to send that resource to Asian markets uh where heretofore, you know, all of the major pipelines were down towards the United States. So uh there is definitely a push uh by uh the Carney government to diversify uh and to lessen Canada's relationship uh, not relationship, sorry, Uh the uh, dependence, economic dependence, uh, on the United States. >> Yes. Okay. So, time for the quick fire round of questions then, and I've reworked these based on the survey. People said, "Stop asking us same questions all the time. Shake Shake it up a bit." So, here we go. So, firstly then, the topic of of this episode, so is the USMCA dead or is there a deal to be salvaged? Chris. >> Um, we talked a little bit about this, but I think unless President Trump decides to withdraw from the agreement, something I really doubt he would do, um, the USMCA will live on, as Diego said, on paper. Uh, I'd say it will live on kind of like a Swiss cheese agreement with Trump poking holes in it at his whim, uh, especially with regard to manufactured products from Canada and possibly from from Mexico. Okay. Uh, and then the >> Yeah. The Diego? >> Survives, >> but it's pretty beat up. Uh, like think of the Ali-Frazier fight in Manila. Where it's a 15-round fight and we just got done with the first round. So, I think it's going to survive, but we're going to we're in for a really tough fight. >> I like some of your metaphors, Diego. We've had millennial moms and fights in Manila. >> [laughter] >> Um, okay. Um, next then, who blinks first? Prime Minister Carney or President Trump? Diego, starting with you. >> I think President Trump. We have the midterm >> Yeah. >> I think Prime Minister Carney's strategy is to like wait it up a little bit, suffer, again, get punched a little bit, but he knows he'll have more leverage after the midterm. Because this is the if affordability election, and by putting tariffs on Canadian goods, you're increasing the prices for US consumers at the checkout. >> Okay. Chris. >> I I'm surprised Diego said that. Um, I will say that I honestly don't know. Um, as I said earlier, Canada's is the only democratic country that's rejected the president and put on counter tariffs. So, I think the president takes this personally and he'll go to great lengths to punish Canada for its perceived defiance. When from a Canadian perspective, it's a matter of survival. But, as Diego said, there will be pressure in the US to come to terms with Canada because of affordability and we have to see how the midterms affect that. >> I think Canada basically has like a 2-month window to to get more leverage. After that, it will go back to as Chris said, an asymmetrical relationship. >> Yeah. Okay, so then to try and add a little levity to what's other been otherwise been a relatively serious conversation. So, Canadians have been boycotting US products for more than a year now. Chris, what is the one that you think Canadians secretly miss the most? >> So, I've actually seen some recording that some Canadians are missing certain types of American liquor. Like bourbon, which is only made in the US and most provincial governments have banned. But, what I think Canadians miss the most isn't bourbon and it's not vacationing in Florida or going to Las Vegas. It's really the luxury of thinking that Americans are simply neighbors and friends rather than citizens of a country that Canada feels it has to protect itself from. >> Oh, this was meant to be happy and you made it really sad. >> Well, it's it's sad for Canadians. It really is. >> Yeah. Um yeah. Yeah. And Diego, I don't believe Mexicans are boycotting US products, but if they were, what would be hardest for them to boycott? >> Well, that's a really tough question. >> [laughter] >> Maybe US sweets. I mean, cuz most of the things that like No, like if you ask me, I can't find I can't think of a product. Maybe like TV shows we could if we suddenly got out of like a a US content ban, like a Netflix ban, that would be terrible. >> Okay. Yeah. Okay, fair enough. Fair enough. All right then. So, you started by describing, you know, the context there and what USMCA is. So, of course, it's the successor of NAFTA. It's ultimately a platform for production between these three North American countries. And Chris, you reminded us this was signed under Trump 1. So, there was a 6-year review by members that took place on or started on July the 1st. US was the only member or signatory that said no. But now we have separate negotiations, the US and Mexico negotiating, but not Canada and and and the US negotiating on the renewal of of USMCA just yet. And then, so then of course we've had these these tensions with Canada. And Chris, you said, you know, President Trump is trying to get a major reshoring, especially if the auto sector. You've said that, you know, he has some legitimate goals, but I think Canadians see the way in which he's pursuing these negotiations as a form of economic nationalism that impinges on Canada's sovereignty. Ultimately, Canada was is the only democracy to have pushed back. And part of that has become a bit personal because of Prime Minister Carney's speech in Davos that was seen as poking President Trump in the eye. So, Canada's strategy now is it knows that the US can inflict a lot more pain on the Canadian economy than Canada can on the US economy. But in the shorter term, Prime Minister Carney can endure a decent amount of pain. He knows that the midterms are coming up, which is something that President Trump is focused on. And also he's enjoying really quite remarkable levels of popularity domestically in Canada. >> Yeah. >> And Canada does have other options, um, potentially uh, restricting energy flows, uh, to to the US, but that would really be a nuclear option and and so I think that's unlikely we're unlikely to see that soon. >> [gasps] >> So, it contrasts a lot with the approach that the Mexican government has taken, um, which was a much more conciliatory approach, uh, Diego, you said, you know, ultimately that's led to lower tariffs, um, and it's in, um, the Mexican government's, uh, sort of political interests to have a closer relationship with President Trump, um, and um, there could even be some benefits for Mexico in this. If if things really get much worse between the US and Canada, then maybe, um, Mexico can push for a for a slightly better deal, um, in its own negotiations with with the US. When we talk about the future of the, uh, USMCA, I think you've said, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty. Um, that uncertainty has real, uh, implications, uh, for companies that are trying to plan, they're trying to invest, they don't know what the rules will be. Um, President Trump has been chipping away at it. Um, Chris, you said it's sort of like that Swiss cheese with there'll be more and more holes in it, um, but uh, and there could be more tariffs coming at the start of of 2027. Um, and so then some of the broader implications are, no, the USMCA is not dead, but Canada is, uh, embarking more seriously on the strategy of diversifying, um, and uh, trying to limit its economic, uh, dependence on the US. Um, there is a serious trust deficit, um, between Canadians and and uh, the US, uh, government, um, and the contents of that consequences of that could be uh, quite long-lasting. So, we don't know what is, uh, ahead of us in in the hours and the days ahead, um, certainly in the months ahead as we get closer to the midterms, but this is a serious crisis. And and I think in some ways it's well, it's certainly one to watch going forward to see how this plays out because I think other countries will be looking and they'll be learning from the outcome. So, Chris, Diego, thank you so much for your time this morning. This week we we pulled this together at very short notice, but I'm I'm really grateful for your insights and your time. This is clearly a very important topic and look forward to having you on again soon. Although, Chris, I hope you get a bit of a break >> [laughter] >> before I turn back to you. Thank you so much both of you. This has been a pleasure. >> Thanks, Will. See you. >> Thanks for listening to State of Play. If you enjoyed this episode, subscribe to it wherever you [music] heard it. And you can find more analysis at www.csis.org/geopolitics. This podcast was produced by Sarah Baker. Until next time.