Video summary
The discussion addresses the rapid increase in transgender identification among youths, particularly focusing on adolescent girls and contrasting current trends with historical data. The speaker notes that brain patterns typically allow for a 93% to 95% accurate prediction of biological sex based on age, yet some individuals naturally fall outside these norms without significant distress. Historically, early transsexual cases were characterized by consistent markers such as gender dysphoria and atypical play behaviors (e.g., boys preferring girls' activities), with detransition rates remaining very low at one to two percent. These historical profiles suggest a genuine internal conflict rather than an external influence, indicating that when individuals from this demographic transitioned, they generally adjusted well to their new identities. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically over the last decade, showing a massive spike in claims of being transgender that far exceeds expectations based on established biological and behavioral markers. The demographics have also changed significantly; whereas cases were previously disproportionately male with clear histories of dysphoria, current trends show an increase among adolescent females who often lack these traditional indicators. The speaker attributes this surge partly to social media's role as a catalyst for "social contagion." During early adolescence, girls are intensely focused on building peer networks and seeking inclusion within their groups. Consequently, they may be more susceptible than boys to adopting ideas that align with the group norm simply to avoid rejection or exclusion, leading them to express gender identities that might not reflect an internal biological reality. The conversation further explores how societal acceptance has inadvertently fueled this trend by removing stigma from being one's "true self," drawing a parallel to the historical demonization of left-handedness which suppressed its prevalence until it became socially acceptable. The speaker argues that while general social acceptance explains why more people come forward, it does not account for the specific gender disparity seen today—specifically the overwhelming number of female-to-male (FtM) transitions compared to male-to-female (MtF). This imbalance is explained by the combination of girls' heightened desire to fit in and their greater social cue ability to absorb external influences. The result is a phenomenon where biological sex differences, which usually define gender identity, are ironically being used as raw materials for individuals to recant on their own assigned sex or gender identity within communities that deny such distinctions exist. Finally, the summary highlights concerning trends regarding regret and detransition rates, which have risen from historically rare instances of one or two percent to figures suggesting up to one in three people stop hormonal treatments after reconsidering their decision. This increase suggests that for many young women, the initial desire to transition was not rooted in deep-seated gender dysphoria but rather in other external issues exacerbated by social pressure and media attention. The speaker finds it ironic that biological differences between men and women are currently driving a volume of individuals who deny those very sex differences when forming their identities. Ultimately, the environment created by combining adolescent vulnerability to peer influence with intense political signaling regarding gender has become detrimental to many adolescents, especially girls, creating clusters of self-identified transgender youth in schools where such cases would have been virtually non-existent just two decades ago.
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when it comes to the current trends that
we're seeing this increase in
transgender especially youths what's
your assessment of the situation why do
you think it is that we've had such a
rapid increase in that happening right
yeah so I yeah I wrote that call that
article that that you mentioned on that
and if we look at it historically
um well so let's step back let's look at
uh brain patterns that I mentioned
before where you know you take a 10 year
old You can predict 93 of the time
whether it's a boy or a girl if you take
an adult You can predict 95 percent of
the time whether it's a man or a woman
so the brain patterns for guys are kind
of bunched up in this area but there are
some individuals that kind of go out on
the curve so there are guys that have
female typical brain patterns not a lot
of them but they're there uh and there
are girls who have been women who have
male typical brain patterns
so it's not
you know kind of out of bounds to think
well you know maybe for whatever reason
um you know you didn't see the sex
typical shift in brain development for
for whatever reason so you're going to
get it would make sense that you you
know you have some guys who really like
girl things
um but they're kind of forced to be boys
and to do boy things and they would
develop gender dysphoria and the same
thing for some girls
and so if we look at
early
um
transsexual
um in individuals
they had a pattern of sex atypical play
so they ate me and the boys are playing
and liked girl things and so forth
expressed wanting to be a girl had this
uh dysphoria depression and discomfort
with being a boy or or a girl if it's
the the reverse of that in those
individuals if they're carefully
screened and so forth would be fairly
rare
but if they transition
um most of them do okay they're okay
with it so the detransition rates are
one or two percent so it's like yeah it
worked for them
but now jump forward to the last you
know well it started maybe 20 years ago
but especially the last 10 years
or so the number of individuals who are
claiming to be transgender has really
spiked
um Way Beyond the numbers you would
expect based on these brain patterns for
example
um and the demographics of these
individuals have changed as well
typically it was disproportionately more
men than women and they had a history of
gender dysphoria now we're getting more
women especially adolescents than men
and most of them as far as I know don't
I mean some of them do but a lot of them
don't have this history of gender
dysphoria and sex atypical play patterns
and other sorts of things that have
historically been reliable markers of
um
transgender issues and doing well with
with the transition if that's what they
they chose to do so there's been this
huge Spike as you know and
it's been argued that's social media has
has driven a lot of it
um and I I think that's right and I
argued that
um adolescent girls in particular may be
at risk for these negative social media
influences
um because during that time you know
early adolescence late adolescence
they're really trying to develop this
social support network
they're really trying to develop this
you know a couple of BFFs and feel
included and integrated and socially
supported and emotionally supported and
so forth that's a really important thing
now guys go through a similar thing
where they want to be part of a bigger
group that works together and so forth
um but the girl networks I think are
more
susceptible to social contagion and
going along with ideas that maybe aren't
a good idea just to fit in and to be
part of the group and not to get
excluded or rejected from the group
which is a bigger concern for girls than
it is for boys and I know so I think we
have a recipe for like combine that with
social media and all the media attention
General Media attention to these issues
it's now become a political signal
rather than a kind of a personal desire
it's like you support this because you
support for all Progressive sorts of
things or against it because you're
against all Progressive sorts of things
it's really
created an environment that I think is
going to be detrimental and is being
detrimental to a lot of
adolescents and young adults especially
girls
and this would explain why you have seen
a sex difference in the number of f to M
as opposed to M to F transitions or
desires for transition because
it you would presume that
um
there's a left-handedness argument that
gets used I'm not sure if you've heard
this used before
uh where
during the Middle Middle Ages people
that were left-handed were seen as more
likely to be witches so um people hid
the fact that they were left-handed I
think it was around about two percent of
people
few hundred years ago said that they
were whereas now it's around about 10 to
it's a teens percent I think of the
population that are left-handed uh so
the argument is when you stop demonizing
people for being their true self being
fully left-handed or being a male that
identifies as a female or vice versa um
that people open up that would be the
explanation for why you would see this
rampant increase the fact that we are
more as a society more accepting of it
but that wouldn't explain why you have
this massive increase in F to M as
opposed to M to F that's right this sect
difference appears to be explained away
largely by the raw materials that we
went through women's desire to fit in
then a greater social cue
ability to absorb absorb that it also
explains why you don't have a completely
random distribution of people across the
entire United States you know one person
out of every 10 schools one girl out of
every 10 schools one male out of every
30 schools let's say across the US it's
five girls in one class that all sit at
the same table together during lunch
that's right yeah yeah you see these
clusters or in the one school district I
think 10 of the kids
um I don't remember what the male female
breakdown was uh claimed to be
transgender non-binary or something
which which makes no sense the the other
issue that has changed is the um regret
and detransition rates are going up
from Fairly rare one two percent or so
to
um you know did depending on what you
look at the stopping of of hormonal
treatment can be you know one out of
three or or so so the the rates of
people kind of changing their mind is
going up suggesting that the transgender
the dysphoria so forth wasn't really
related to that it was due to some other
other issue
what I find particularly fascinating and
kind of morbidly ironic about this
situation is that the biological sex
differences that men and women have are
providing the raw materials to cause
increasing volumes of men and women to
recant their own sex or at least their
own gender identity so it's almost like
the supply and demand of what's going on
is happening in a community of people
that deny that there are any sex
differences
yeah yeah
yeah yeah it it it it it it's a mess so
right so
yeah so you're you're saying that the
um adolescent women's girls
susceptibility to social Contagion
has a biological basis to it which I I
think it does
um and that biological basis makes them
more prone to claim that they're really
a guy
yeah it is
um it's amazing people can can spend
stories for sure what's happening people
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