Video summary
The Houthi strategy involves a calculated escalation aimed at securing better financial and political outcomes, including greater power, territory, and international recognition. Although this approach risks provoking military retaliation from Saudi Arabia and its allies, the Houthis are not deterred by such threats, having already engaged in active combat with Saudi forces for nearly a decade. Their willingness to antagonize Riyadh stems from a long-standing narrative that casts Saudi Arabia as an agent of Western interests and part of a broader conspiracy they oppose. By continuing their attacks, the Houthis hope to leverage global pressure into more favorable diplomatic terms rather than simply seeking military victory.
Recent reports suggest that Israel and Saudi Arabia are engaging in dialogue facilitated by US Central Command, with Israel reportedly providing intelligence support to Riyadh against Houthi threats. The Houthis would likely view this cooperation as validation of their decade-long propaganda portraying Saudi Arabia as a Western proxy, thereby strengthening their ideological stance. However, they remain concerned about the possibility of a coordinated campaign involving both Saudi allies and potentially American forces, which could bring back large-scale air power similar to previous conflicts. To avoid triggering such a broad response, the Houthis carefully calibrate their messaging, claiming their targets are not general shipping or America itself, but specifically focusing on Saudi Arabia to limit escalation while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
The United States is unlikely to commit ground troops or open a new front in the Middle East, especially given the ongoing war with Iran and domestic political considerations ahead of midterm elections. The US may continue to offer advisory support and maintain operational coordination with Saudi forces, but it will probably avoid repeating the costly air campaign launched in 2025, which failed to defeat the Houthis and resulted in further attacks on Red Sea shipping shortly after a deal was signed. This historical precedent makes Washington hesitant to engage directly, preferring instead to manage the crisis through diplomatic channels and limited assistance rather than risking another unpopular military intervention that could destabilize the region further.
Despite avoiding direct US involvement, the Houthis' actions pose significant risks to global economic stability, particularly if both the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted for extended periods. With these critical chokepoints already under threat, the Houthis have demonstrated the ability to expand their reach into the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden and even target vessels near the Suez Canal, leveraging new partnerships across the Horn of Africa. Such developments could lead to severe disruptions in global trade, affecting not only vulnerable economies but also eventually impacting American consumers who rely on uninterrupted supply chains. As tensions rise, the potential for further escalation remains high, with the possibility of worsening conditions if the Houthis continue to exploit their asymmetric capabilities against multiple maritime routes.
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What do you make of the Houthi strategy
here? It's running the risk of military
action from Saudi Arabia and others to
help regain control of the Bab al-
Mandave Strait. Your thoughts right now?
>> The Houthi strategy right now fits with
the escalation that they had been
doubling down on their position over the
last few months. And so it it's really
not a massive surprise for those who
were watching the Houthis carefully.
Now, yes, they are risking a Saudi
reaction, but let's not forget that the
Houthis have already been at war with
Saudi Arabia now for almost 12 years uh
in all well 11 years since the Saudis
entered the struggle and seven years of
those were very active combat until
2022. So they've got a lot of experience
of antagonizing the Saudis into taking
action and clearly they're not phased by
that. The Houthi strategy really is for
them to secure a better financial deal
um a better political deal, power and
territory, all of which could help them
get the kind of political recognition
and legitimacy that they crave.
Meanwhile, a diplomat has told our
sister I24 News Hebrew channel that
Israel and Saudi Arabia are engaged in
dialogue all facilitated by US Central
Command. In short, that Israel is
providing intelligence support to the
Saudis against the Houthis. What do you
make of this reporting? And would it
worry the Houthis seeing Jerusalem
helping Riyad against their threat?
I think the Houthies would see this as
feeding directly into the narratives
that they've been pedalling for the past
decade or more because they've always
cast Saudi Arabia as an agent of the
West, as someone who is part of what
they term the Zionist crusader
conspiracy. So, this really helps to
confirm what they've been saying. Now,
does it actually worry them? Well, they
certainly won't want a concerted
campaign against them that involves
Saudi allies. And so far, they've been
trying to calibrate by saying that their
enemy is not shipping in general. It's
not America. They had that call with
Trump. Uh they just want to cast Saudi
Arabia as the enemy because they don't
want to provoke a a massive reaction, a
massive campaign against them that could
bring in broader air power again. So
they might be a little concerned at the
idea that Israel or indeed further down
the line uh its ally America might get
stuck in alongside Saudi Arabia. That
would be bad for the Houthies.
>> To that exact point, would you imagine
or envisionage the US getting involved
at some point and helping its ally Riyad
out if Saudi Arabia or global shipping
comes under sustained Houthi attacks? If
this becomes a prolonged situation,
>> I think that the US will at this point
be keen to avoid opening a further war
inside the Middle East alongside the
Iran war that's already going on.
Obviously, the two are linked, but it
won't want another front. Now, America
will, of course, offer support. It will
offer advice. It will be it will have
people in operations rooms alongside the
Saudis much as Israel is reported to
have. But it won't, I doubt want um I I
doubt it will want boots on the ground.
Not this close to the midterm elections
uh and on the back of another war which
was already so unpopular. And of course,
America had a bad experience tackling
the Houthis back in 2025. It fought the
Houthis between six and seven weeks
full-on air strikes at vast expense and
that ended not in the Houthi defeat but
in a deal and within two months of that
deal the Houthies sank two further ships
in the Red Sea. So it didn't really
work. Why would they want to repeat
that?
>> And of course that is an excellent
question why they would want to repeat
that. But there remains of course much
concern about the global economic impact
if both Baba Mandab and the strait of
Hammuz remain disrupted. Your sense of
that looking forward briefly please.
>> I think that this could have a very
significant impact on the global
economy. America might be slightly more
immune to it or inured from it than
other countries, but it would hit the
American consumer eventually. I think
it's worth pointing out that with the
straight of Hormuz barely navigable with
the Bear Belandab now under considerable
threat, the Houthis could extend beyond
that. They could now have reach out
towards the Indian Ocean, across the
Gulf of Aiden. And of course, we know
they've got the reach for the Sewish
Canal and they have new partners across
the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa. So,
it could still get a whole lot worse.