Video summary
Brad Wilcox critiques the modern pursuit of a "soulmate" myth, using Elizabeth Gilbert's *Eat, Pray, Love* and her subsequent relationship instability to illustrate the dangers of building marriage solely on fleeting emotional connections. He argues that feelings are an insecure foundation for long-term commitment, proposing instead a "family first" approach rooted in St. Thomas Aquinas's concept of pursuing the good of the other. This framework prioritizes solidarity, financial stability, and shared commitments over mere romance, suggesting that while suffering in silence is not required, entering into marriage with high conflict or fundamental incompatibility—especially before children arrive—is a different matter than leaving due to a lack of romantic feeling alone. Wilcox emphasizes that for parents concerned about their children's welfare, staying together in lower-conflict situations often yields better outcomes than separating based on transient emotional dissatisfaction. Recent research highlights a significant "happiness premium" among conservatives compared to liberals, particularly affecting young women aged 18 to 40 where liberal men are three times more likely to report being very happy or completely satisfied with life than conservative women in some metrics, though the study specifically noted that majority of conservative women are married and religious while only a minority of liberal women share these traits. Wilcox attributes this disparity not just to mindset but to structural integration into core American institutions like marriage and faith communities, which provide meaning and direction. He notes that many educated liberals "talk left but walk right," privately valuing family life despite publicly devaluing traditional marriage due to historical associations with patriarchy or concerns about race; however, this disconnect leaves them less happy than their conservative counterparts who are more likely to be married and happily so. The conversation addresses the crisis of young men's outcomes, noting that boys raised in non-intact families are significantly more likely to end up in prison than to graduate from college, a trend exacerbated by educational systems failing to engage male students and societal shifts undermining traditional masculinity. Wilcox points out that while women have gained ground educationally, they often marry men with higher incomes or stable trades jobs rather than less educated peers, contributing to the decline of marriage among working-class populations where one in four prime-age men without a college degree are not working full-time. He also discusses the "male session" phenomenon and how young men floundering economically gravitate toward anti-feminist ideologies like those promoted by Andrew Tate or vote for figures like Donald Trump, as seen in South Korea's recent election dynamics where conservative candidates won over frustrated younger males. Regarding family structures, Wilcox challenges the viability of a large-scale shift to stay-at-home dads, citing data that married mothers are generally happier when their husbands work full-time and noting that divorce risk increases significantly for women who become sole breadwinners after losing jobs compared to men in similar situations. He argues that while some female-dominated households exist, they tend to be working-class rather than upper-middle class, where dual-earner or male-breadwinner models remain more common and stable. Furthermore, he highlights the importance of "pro-social masculinity"—traits like providing financially, protecting physically (such as standing up for a partner), and paying emotional attention—as highly valued by women across political spectrums, suggesting that men who embody these qualities foster happier marriages regardless of their ideological stance. Looking forward, Wilcox suggests that in an increasingly technologically distracted and economically unequal world, the institution of marriage may become even more critical than ever for adult well-being and child development. He observes that the link between intact families and college graduation is strengthening among millennials compared to previous generations, indicating that family stability offers a protective buffer against modern precarity. While acknowledging genetic factors in outcomes like IQ or depression susceptibility, he stresses that environmental interactions with genetics mean that supportive networks and stable relationships profoundly influence life trajectories. Ultimately, Wilcox calls for center-left intellectuals and policymakers to embrace the simple truth of marriage's benefits without fear-mongering about family structure, hoping this re-engagement will help restore social mobility and happiness by encouraging more people to build families early in their lives.
Read the full video transcript
What do you think about the story of the
book Eat, Pray, Love? You know, Liz
Gilbert's book obviously got a lot of
attention, a lot of popularity among
women especially. And you know, it's
kind of first glance really attractive
and appealing. Um, but what's I think
striking about the book is that she kind
of ends off by, you know, this sort of
storybook romance in impossibly romantic
Bali in Indonesia. She meets what seems
like the perfect guy who's a feminist, a
great cook, a great lover, etc., etc.
They have this in incredible
connection. But then you learn 10 years
later, Chris, what do you think happens?
Did I I already know how this story
ends, unfortunately, because I did my
research. Yeah. She leaves him for for
another uh another soulmate. And so, the
point I make about this story in my own
book is that we have a kind of the
soulmate myth out there. there's kind of
like the perfect person that will
complete us with whom we'll have like
really no major problems and with whom
we'll have a kind of this incredible
kind of romantic and emotional
connection on on a pretty regular basis
and you know I think the eat pray love
book and the last kind of you know
storybook romance that she gives us in
that book is kind of emblematic of this
whole way of thinking and approaching
relationships love and marriage and yet
the problem with it of course is that by
making feelings the foundation
of love, feelings, the foundation of
marriage, you're kind of putting things
on a very insecure footing. And that's
why what we see in in the real world is
that Liz Gilbert seems to go from one
person to the next on a regular basis.
Um, including the guy that she meets at
the end of again, Eat Pretty Love. I
noticed that you degendered person
because she pivoted from the guy in Bali
to a woman for I think about five years
and then really sadly uh that person
passed away and then she started dating
the woman's best friend who was a guy
and then recently announced that she was
happily single at 55 and had broken up
with that. So, look, uh, Elizabeth
Gilbert, fantastic book, uh, did very,
very well, super successful, but I do
think it's fair to say that she makes
for a, uh,
tenuous role model for happy marriage
and love. I I don't think that that's a
particularly controversial thing to say.
Yeah. So, I think kind of looking at
love and marriage is primarily an
opportunity to kind of have this strong
emotional connection. And she talks too
in her book about kind of her desire to
kind of directly pursue happiness. If
that's kind of if you kind of this more
romanticized understanding of love and
if you're directly seeking happiness in
love or in marriage, I think you're kind
of headed for trouble. And I think
certainly her her own life is emblematic
of the way in which at least if kind of
like your goal is to have a strong and
stable marriage and family kind of
taking the Liz Gilbert soulmate approach
to uh to love a marriage is not a a
great strategy. What's a better
foundation or framework to build your
marriage on than feelings?
Well, you know, um St. Thomas Aquinas
talked about love as kind of pursuing
the good of the other. And in my book, I
kind of talk about this in the sense of
sort of having a family first approach
to love and marriage where you
understand and appreciate that you're
trying to pursue the good of your spouse
uh and and your marriage kind of more
broadly if you will and then if you have
kids kind of of your of your kids. So
there's a kind of way in which I talk
about a family first approach to
marriage which allows you to understand
and appreciate that your marriage is
about more than just an emotional
connection. It's about kind of building
a sense of solidarity in your
relationship. It's about having a strong
financial foundation that supports both
you and your spouse. And then if you
have kids, and most people still do
today, it's about kind of understanding
and appreciating how much your marriage
matters for your kids and really your
kin more broadly. So this is kind of
again a family first approach to
marriage. And it kind of makes the
emotional connection a little bit less
important and helps you to understand
and appreciate that there really many
different goods that you're pursuing in
marriage. And having kind of that more
diverse set of goods, I think, makes you
um less nervous when you do have
conflict or when you know things aren't
incredibly romantic or wonderful in your
in your emotional uh side of your
relationship because you realize and
appreciate that there are other
dimensions of your marriage that matter
and are worth honoring.
to fight for the other side.
Surely part of the job of being married
or a good amount of the job of being
married is not to suffer in silence in a
uh relationship which is unfulfilling.
Um you know you've got a slippery slope
down to mistreatment here. Uh where
somebody is genuinely being um forgotten
about by their partner, not treated in
the way that they should. And you know,
you can go right down to some really
sort of nasty dark dark corners that
women and and I guess some men as well
get get stuck in. Um, how do you square
the circle of
knowing
when knowing when the feelings that you
have about your relationship are a
signal that this is something really
really not good, that this is a
fundamental incompatibility. Perhaps
this is before children have come along
and you're thinking, "Do I really want
to bring kids into this this uh this is
the model of of love of um uh relational
care? Is this really what I want to show
them?" Um you know, you can I understand
there's more serving the other, right?
But I think it's also why we have to
think too about kind of not just when
you're married, Chris, but of course
before you're married, right? So the
point is is that you want to try to find
someone who shares your commitments to
marriage to love who is also kind of um
you know has those uh those virtues that
make for a good marriage you know
loyalty charity uh patience uh fortitude
etc. So, I mean that the point is that
if you're kind of, you know, more
discerning about the kinds of things
that would make for a good spouse,
you're less likely to land in a in a the
kind of dark place that you're talking
about. And I think just it's important
to understand and appreciate that the
kinds of people who really value
marriage as an institution and who kind
of have a symmetrical commitment both to
one another and to marriage as
institution kind of heading into
marriage are less likely to get into
that dark place you're talking about.
But of course it's certainly the case
that people even with the best of
intentions do land in difficult places
in dark places. And so in terms of
thinking about divorce and I'm
particularly concerned about how this
all plays out too for kids, what we see
in the research about this particular
question is that when there is high
conflict, when there are dishes going
through the kitchen on Friday and
Saturday nights, when there's regular
screaming, you know, matches, maybe when
one spouse is, you know, abusing drugs,
for instance, in those contexts, yes, it
makes eminent sense for, you know,
people to split.
separate for the sake of their kids. But
in lower conflict situations where more
like the Liz Gilbert situation where she
left her husband in New York cuz she
just wasn't kind of feeling it. in those
kinds of situations. Chris, if your kind
of concern is if you have kids in the
household, for instance, kind of really
for their welfare, then the research is
also pretty clear and that is it'd be
better for at least your kids in that
particular kind of situation to stay
together and I would say also to kind of
find a way to to get your marriage on a
stronger footing as well. Yeah, it's
this interesting balance, I guess,
between kids coming from broken homes
where the partners have separated or
kids coming from uh breaking homes that
just never actually break out. And how I
think the last time that we spoke it was
it's your belief that um there's not no
such thing as a good reason for divorce.
It's that the barometer that most people
are using in order to justify whether
that breakup should or should not occur
has been brought down to a level of
Elizabeth Gilbert sensitization which is
too soon. Right? So again, I want to
stress in some cases I think you know
separating is the right thing to do for
yourself and for your kids. Um, but I
think yeah, in in today's world, we tend
to kind of set the bar too low for what
kind of counts as a problem that would
merit heading towards divorce court.
Exactly. Okay. What's happening with
this conservative happiness premium
thing? My Twitter DMs are a light with
different studies that you've been
sending me over the last couple of
weeks. Yeah. Yeah. So, we're just kind
of seeing in and looking at kind of
trends in happiness, Chris, today that
that conservatives are happier than
liberals. And we just came out with a
recent study showing that uh among young
women aged 18 to 40, liberal men are
about three times as likely to be very
happy or actually completely satisfied
their lives compared to conservative
women. And a lot of the story is about
the way in which they're more likely to
be
married and then other work have done
happily married and then also they're
more likely to be religious. So we find
in in this recent study for instance
that a majority of young women who are
conservative are married and only a
minority of young women who are uh
liberal are married. uh we find the
majority of conservative women are
attending religious services on a
regular basis compared to a very small
minority of liberal women. And so I
think the point here in part is that
kind of being
um integrated into core institutions of
American life, you know, marriage,
faith, um is a big reason why
conservative women, for instance, are
happier than liberal women. And you
probably know there's been discussion
like John Heights for instance talked
about kind of like a catastrophizing
mindset that explains why liberal men
have kind of worse mental health than
conservative women. Um Gene Twinkie's
kind of weighed in on this as well. And
I think that's part of the story, but
I'm pointing kind of beyond just the
mindset and just making the point that,
you know, we are social animals, Chris,
right? And when we are connected to
other people, like in the context of of
marriage or some kind of faith community
or other forms of community, um we tend
to be much more likely to flourish. And
so what we're seeing today is that
conservative women at MISN research are
more likely to be uh connected to these
core institutions that give our lives
meaning, direction, purpose and a sense
of happiness as well. Why is this
focused on women and not just
conservatives versus liberals?
So this recent research that we uh that
we did was focusing on women but my book
focuses on both men and women and what
we find in the in the broader research
too is that conservatives in general
Chris are uh more likely to be happy. So
for instance kind of in a larger
population for men and women we find
that conservatives aged 18 to 55 are 60%
more likely to be very happy. And for
this larger research from my book, what
we find in that is that again a big part
of that story is that conservatives are
more likely to be married today and
they're also more likely to be happily
married. And those two factors account
for about a third of this happiness
premium we're seeing um in comparing
conservatives to liberals uh with their
with their lives in general today.
Yeah. So, young liberal women very
unhappy because or at least in part
because church and marriage accounting
for a big chunk of this of this gap. Uh
was it only 12% of liberal women said
they are completely satisfied with life
compared to 37% of conservative women
self-described moderates are happier
than liberals with 28% agreeing that
they're fully satisfied. And then so
that's I guess structural you know this
is something that's happening in their
life but as you hinted at there there's
this issue that uh maybe liberal women
see themselves at the mercy of societal
forces and sort of less agentic maybe
like they they are at the world is
happening to them. They're sort of a
victim of larger structural realities in
that way. Yeah. So this is kind of the
point that Jonathan height has made in
his his research on this and Gene Twangi
as well and some other psychologists
too. So they're just kind of observing
that today liberal men have kind of less
of a sense that they're captains of
their own, you know, fate and that
they're kind of uh living in a world
that, you know, is oppressive and hard.
Um whereas conservative women are less
likely to have that view. They're more
likely to think of themselves as, you
know, steering their their own ship,
captains of their own ship, and they're
less worried about kind of the nature
and character of the world today that
they find themselves in.
Yeah. you uh you had this interesting
uh parallel that you drew between after
the Donald Trump election where lots of
young liberal women were in hysterics uh
and saying they were going to shave
their heads and and swear off having sex
with men because they laid Donald
Trump's success at the feet of men and
this was a way to get back at them. Um,
but the equivalent thing didn't seem to
happen on the right when Joe Biden got
elected despite I I imagine people on
the right being just as upset. Yeah. No,
I I do think there's a way in which I
mean despite what you might kind of
glean from Twitter sometimes, right? And
I think there have been critiques, you
know, out there. For instance, Noah
Smith had a big critique lately about
kind of saying conservatives are, you
know, they're sort of saying in theory
they're all about community, family, and
faith, but in kind of in reality,
they're they're just about kind of, you
know, basically tweeting from their
their mom's basement. And so, of course,
there are some conservative voices
online who are kind of living deeply
antisocial lives. But I think we do see
kind of in the sort of national data is
that generally speaking, conservatives
are more likely to be out and about, to
be married, to be involved in their
communities in meaningful ways,
including the religious communities. And
that, you know, helps to ground and
guide them and kind of keep them
protected from this more
catastrophizing mindset. M I question
that comes to mind is like let's say
that you're somebody who believes in
democratic uh ideologies uh and you
think huh this isn't particularly good
for maybe my life outcomes in the the
evidence you know that Brad guy he seems
to know what he's talking about he
suggested that people that are
conservative what do you suggest people
do with this information like I I should
change my belief structure and start to
believe something else well you know I
think one of the things I talk about in
my book and get married Chris is kind of
this idea this sort of reality we see
out there today is that a lot of of a
lot of liberals particularly more
educated liberals college educated
liberals talk left right but they walk
right so kind of you know in terms of
how they would sort of talk about family
issues for instance marriage for
instance they would tend to kind of
publicly or even in terms of the world
view kind of uh devalue the importance
of marriage but in their own private
lives they kind of implicitly understand
and appreciate you know how much
marriage matters for them and for any
kids that they have. And so I think part
of the solution here is for there are
plenty of you know democratic elites who
kind of do this. I talk about them in
the book. Um but I think you know one
solution here is to kind of
actually basically preach what you
practice to paraphrase Charles Murray on
this score right so kind of I think for
liberals to understand and appreciate
that look you know it is better
generally speaking to get married to
invest in your kids. There's just a
tremendous amount of meaning and
happiness that you know typically flow
from this kind of family oriented life
and we should celebrate and help our
fellow progressives kind of um embrace
marriage and family life in in larger
numbers. They're of course going to do
it in different ways than conservatives
might but we could actually do a better
job of kind of making the case uh for
marriage so that more progressives would
find their way into the institution
um on an even earlier basis. And we have
seen pieces in New York, you know,
magazine for instance, kind of
reflecting on this possibility as well.
So there might be some openness in the
part of, I think, liberals and
progressives to begin to kind of rethink
the distance they've put between
themselves and marriage and childbearing
um as a way of um you know, giving their
lives greater meaning and purpose.
What's the incentive to talk left but
walk right? what why is that the case?
So I think the incentive here is that
partly kind of there are ways in which
in the 60s and 70s you know it was
progressives who really kind of charting
a new path when it came to marriage and
family and they came to see kind of
marriage as a kind of patriarchal
traditional institution. They wanted to
embrace newer family forms who wanted to
embrace the possibility of kind of
living a larger portion of your life
single free etc. Um and then also kind
of there was concerns too about sort of
associating marriage with uh the uh
Muahan report which is kind of talking
about the intersection between race and
marriage and family. So there's kind of
a wide range of reasons why progressives
began to code marriage and family as
more conservative you know issues and
institutions and a desire not to be seen
as conservative. But I think the
challenge though for liberals now is
that while, you know, as I said, many
liberal elites actually do talk left and
walk right. I talk about Reed Hastings,
you know, the co-founder of Netflix as a
as a kind of example of this. For
instance, stable marriage. He had some
marital difficulties, worked through
them with the help of counselors, two
kids, you know, all this kind of
probably lives in some ways a pretty
conventional family life, right? Except
he's super rich. um and yet you know is
also very progressive on a lot of
cultural issues. The problem though with
this kind of dynamic for the left I
would say is we're now seeing today a
majority among age 18 to 55 year old
Americans of conservatives are married
but only a minority of liberals are
married. And so I think partly that's
because they're just not prioritizing
um you know getting married and having a
family in the same way that
conservatives are. and they're not
realizing that they're really losing out
on one of the most important things
that, you know, many of us will do in
our lives. Yeah. Uh birth rates on the
left fell after the last Trump
presidency. Do you think that's likely
that it's going to happen again?
It's certainly uh possible and we also
seeing kind of a stronger relationship
between fertility rates and voting
patterns regionally that a colleague of
mine were family studies did. Uh, and
then we also see in some new work too at
IFS that's in process that when you look
at kind of the fertility rate for
40-year-old conservatives is about two
kids per month on average whereas the
fertility rate now for 40 year old
liberals is just one child per woman on
average. Just a huge a big difference a
huge difference there. So again I think
um I actually wish we didn't live in a
society where you know marriage and
family become so polarized. Um but we do
and I think it it's one of those ways in
which in this particular not every area
but in this area I do think it's
actually progressives who are losing
out. I'm going to guess that that's not
only because they're less happy, they're
more subject to depression, they're less
integrated, but that over a couple of
generations the kids that come along
will be the kids of the kid having type.
And if on average it's conservatives and
religious people as opposed to liberals
and secular people, you end up
inheriting the uh civilization of the
people that came before,
right? And so one reason I mean we're
already kind of seeing that kind of
conservatives are in a better spot than
they otherwise would be because they're
more likely to have kids um than
liberals are. But there's also, as I
think everyone knows, a lot of kind of
conversions happening out of
conservative households, religious
households into more progressive and
secular um you know, adult communities.
So there's there is kind of a lot of um
you know, migration places, you know,
happening. And so it's not the case that
just because conservatives have more
kids, we're necessarily going to see a
society down the road that's becoming
more conservative. But if if we do see
particularly I think you know
conservatives having more success in
keeping their children kind of in the
fold so to speak you could see a kind of
development like we've seen in Israel
right in the last couple of decades
where Israel has
migrated culturally politically and
religiously more to the right you know
as u more religious and more
conservative Israelis have had more kids
and have done a generally you know
pretty good job of keeping their kids
kind of in of in the fold, so to speak,
as they move into adulthood. Yeah. I
uh I' I'd love to speak to somebody
that's being able to run the projections
for what the next sort of 100 to 300
years looks like.
Yeah. I mean, I think that's I mean,
there's so much I think, you know,
happening um in the near future, Chris,
as you well know. And I think AI is
going to be an incredibly disruptive
force when it comes to uh both
employment and when it comes to
potentially relationships as well, you
know, and so one of the things that
we're seeing on the relationship front,
of course, is that one reason why
marriage is down and fertility is down,
not just here in the United States, but
globally in many places, is just the
technologies become so engaging and so
engrossing that people are not
socializing as much. they're not dating
as much and of course they're not
mating, marrying and having kids as
much. Um, and so as the technology gets
even better and better, I think the
question part is, you know, what does
that do to our capacity um to, you know,
to find common ground romantically and
and family wise? Um, and then when it
comes to as well kind of the challenges
that AI will will pose to the labor
market, what does that do to kind of the
the ability of of people to have
families and afford families? So, there
just there's just some major I think in
part technological
uh innovations coming down the pike that
are going to uh have a serious impact on
uh contemporary relationships. Although
I would say here it could be the case
too that conservatives or or religious
communities might be more you know
resilient in the face of these new
technological challenges. Maybe better
able to um you know protect their kids
from spending too much time for instance
staring at a screen or or or engaging a
robot. M have you thought about how uh
mimemetic marriage and family life is
that if you're in the sort of
environment or local ecology that
doesn't have many marriages and people
having kids, everyone's a solo
entrepreneur just tinder swiping their
way through a couple of
situationships. you don't necessarily
have someone teaching you or showing you
well actually this is a style of life
which is really enjoyable and that means
that maybe you could do it too and you
end up with this like r number that
spins down or spins up based on where
you are. Yeah, that's a great point
Chris. I mean what we see in the
research is that you know basically
marriage, childbearing, divorce for
instance are all incredibly
contagious. You catch them from your
friends and family members, your close
family members, right? And so if you're
in a network of people who are getting
married, you're more likely to get
married. If you're in a network of
people who are having kids, you're more
likely to have children. If you're in a
network of people who are getting
divorced, you're more likely to get Oh,
wow. So if you're if your partner's best
friend gets divorced, you should pay a
little bit of close attention.
Completely. This is Nicholas Kristo has
done work at Yale on this whole question
of divorce being Yeah. really
heavilyorked. And so the point I make is
like, you know, you are your friends,
Chris, right? You are your friends. And
so if your friends are, you know,
staying single and steering clear of
parenthood, your odds of doing the same
thing are quite high. And by contrast,
if your friends are getting married and
having kids and doing a, you know,
pretty good bangup job of, you know,
being decent husbands and fathers, wives
and mothers, you know, your odds of
doing the same are because we are, as
you said, my metic, you know, and so we
tend to imitate what we see. Um, and
that's why it's also important to be
deliberate about choosing friends who
are going to be um, I would say like,
you know, challenging you, you know, to
kind of raise your your game as maybe a
spouse and a parent. Um, but also just
kind of giving you a good example and
and standing with you too when when
times are tough in your marriage or in
your family life. Sorry, honey. I do
love you. Uh, I care about you an awful
lot, but Amy uh, she just got divorced
and, uh, I I can't help but I it's kind
of the new fashion that's in at the
moment. So, uh, we're done. Yeah. Yeah.
Uh, going back to the sort of talking
left, walking right thing, a lot of the
time, a lot of the conversations end up
discussing education, poverty, housing
issues. Uh, why is what happens in the
home never spoken about? Sort of how to
actually move people out of poverty and
get social mobility going.
Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, you
you've had Rob Henderson on your
podcast, I'm sure. And, you know, Rob
tells the story of kind of growing up in
a very chaotic, you know, home
situation, living in a working-class
community where there was a lot of
family instability, and then through an
amazing turn of events, landing at Yale
University, and, you know, mentioned
that when he was at Yale, he was in this
class on childhood, and the teacher
asked him, you know, how many of you had
kind of been raised in an intact,
married biological family? And
astonishingly 18 out of 20 of the kids
at Yale had come in that class had come
from an intact married family. He kind
of realized, oh wait a second, you know,
a lot of the kind of privileged kids
here at Yale are coming from intact
married families. And yet the irony was
and he's talking to me about this whole
experience at Yale was when he kind of
tried to kind of address this issue of
family structure, family stability and
kind of public conversations at Yale
about things like poverty and mobility
for poor kids. they were very reluctant
to kind of talk about the family
structure angle and instead would kind
of pivot towards talking about things
like poverty or things like economic
opportunity or things like the
availability of good jobs. So there was
kind of a an assumption that part of
many of the more progressive minded both
students and professors at Yale that
what really matters when it comes to
kind of realizing American dream in the
US is factors like you know poverty um
job quality schooling etc. and they're
quite reluctant to sort of reflect on
the ways in which uh family also plays a
big role in all of this. Why so
reluctant? Well, again, I think because
the sort of public ethos of our
universities and our elite culture more
generally is quite progressive. And
because it's progressive, it tends to
value things like tolerance. It values
in choice. It values kind of embracing
the newest thing, you know, in the sort
of whole love and family arena and all
those kinds of orientations towards, you
know, more choice, more freedom, more
individuality and just thinking about
families as unfolding in some kind of
progressive way, I think makes people
very hesitant to um really embrace
marriage per se or kind of understand
and appreciate how many, of course, not
all of the kind of traditions that we
associate with family life actually tend
to help people navigate family life
rather than serve as a hindrance to
doing so. Well, we saw this with Melissa
Carney's book, the the two parents
advantage, two parent privilege. And um
before it even came out, Melissa Carney
is as sort of policy wonk
DC, probably center left, I would
imagine, a lovely lady, softly spoken,
very well researched, and writes this
book saying, "Look, there is kind of the
freest advantage that you can give your
kids." What is it? the the golden
sequence or whatever it's called. Um,
and I think maybe even the book cover, I
don't even think it was the chapter list
or maybe it was the chapter list, too,
but at the very least the book cover got
released on Twitter. And she gets
absolutely flamed for daring to write a
book about this thing, which as far as I
could tell was coming from a very sort
of liberal, we want to raise people up.
This is where social mobility can
actually come from. But yeah, um, not
breaking up a household has become so
rightcoded that writing a book that
explains the freest way that you can
help to give your kids a leg up, i.e.
staying together, uh, was seen as like I
don't know, mine cam version two. Yeah.
No, and she talks too at the beginning
of her book about the way in which she
would kind of raise the sort of marriage
issue or the family structure issue and
economic, you know, discussions that
people kind of pull her aside and sort
of say to her why, you know, why why are
you doing this kind of like this isn't
something you should be talking about in
kind of polite companies. I think the
the dynamic here although I do think in
fairness there have I mean I think her
book has really helped the discussion.
Um my book has been treated very nicely
by the New York Times. you know, five
different pieces on my book, you know,
multiple pieces on her book in the
times, the Atlantic as well. So, I do
think there is a way in which we may be
opening up on the part of sort of
centerleft, you know, intellectuals in,
you know, in some universities and some,
you know, mainstream media outlets,
hopefully in some public policy arenas,
too, in the Democratic party to the ways
in which, you know, marriage and family
are pretty important for kids. I just
actually wrote a piece on Richard
Reeves, you know, has written this great
book actually of of boys and men here.
And the one I think big problem I had
with the book is he kind of argues at
the end that we've got to figure out a
new way to do fatherhood apart from
marriage. That kind of marriage is sort
of, you know, receding into the
distance, not really acknowledging that,
you know, kids in married father
families just do way better than kids in
families where dads don't live, you
know, with mom. And that's much more the
case for you unmarried families. And
that also doesn't didn't really
appreciate too that we've actually seen
a slight uptick in the share of kids,
Chris, who are being raised in intact
married families in really the last
decade. So the sort of idea we're going
to head to, you know, marriage being
completely in out of the picture is no
longer kind of uh true. So I'm just
hoping, you know, he wrote a piece as
three days ago was kind of acknowledging
more kind of the importance of marriage
both for men and for the kids that they
raise. And so maybe there'll be some,
you know, rethinking about this issue in
the kind of center left, more elite
precincts going forward. If fewer people
are getting married, does that suggest
that the people who do get married are
more committed to the institution and
that explains the reduction in divorces?
Yeah. So the sort of the the the there's
sort of, you know, good news and bad
news here, right? So the the bad news
from my perspective for adults is that
fewer Americans are marrying. We're
projecting now that about one in three
young adults today will never marry.
It's going to be a record low when it
comes to permanent bachelors, permanent
bachelorettes, right? And that's
problematic because they're more likely
to be floundering on any number of
emotional, social, and financial
measures. Contra Andrew Tate. Um, but
the good news here for kids, right, is
that because marriage and family life,
fertility become more selective in this
contemporary. What that means is the
kinds of people today who are having
families who are getting married are
relatively more advantaged, more
affluent, more educated, more religious,
and also more conservative. And those
families, not surprisingly, what we're
seeing is they're also more stably
married as well.
Yeah. So, people on the left say
poverty, people on the right say
genetics. What can you learn about the
uh heritability of family desire, family
stability, stuff like that? Yeah. Know
and and I think it's important to
acknowledge that both the left and the
right as you kind of frame you know the
the issue are correct to argue that you
know poverty matters. Um growing up in
poverty is very stressful. It really can
you know it also it's about networks
too. When you're poor you don't have as
many you know good models in your
immediate network of of marriage family
life. At the same time too, the folks on
the right who would talk about genetics
are correct to argue that, you know, we
know for instance having like a gene
that or genes that would make you
vulnerable to
depression also makes you more
vulnerable to get divorced when you're
an adult and then makes your child more
likely to be depressed as well. And so
some of the things that I would say
about the importance of marriage and
family uh for adult and child well-being
would be chocked up by the left
economics and by parts of the right to
genetics. And they're correct to an
extent. We also have kind of good
evidence as well um from economists and
when it comes to the importance of
economics that that's not the only thing
we know from Raj Cheddy's work and
looking at kind of regional patterns in
economic inequality for instance and
family structure that family structure
is actually a better predictor of poor
kids rising that rags to rich's mobility
story so that kids for instance born
poor in Salt Lake City are marketkedly
more likely to rise ties into riches or
affluence as adults compared to kids
born in Atlanta where there's a lot more
single parenthood. So again, it tells us
that it's not just money, it's also
about family structure and looking at
one key outcome kind of the American
dream. On the genetic side, we have more
and more Chris twin studies that are
telling us that, you know, kids who are
born to female identical twins where one
twin gets divorced and one twin does not
get divorced, the kids who are in the
non-divorced household who are being,
you know, tracked in these studies do
better socially and emotionally. We also
have a children study too of men looking
at identical twin guys um in Minnesota
and finding there that the identical
twin brother who got married earned
about 26% more than his identical twin
brother who did not marry. And we have a
whole body of research kind of telling
us that men who get married tend to work
harder, they work smarter, they make
more money. Um they're for instance less
likely to be fired compared to roughly
equivalent people. um you know, if
they're married versus, you know, the
guy who's who's single in their uh in
the workplace. Um they're also more
likely if they're upset with their job,
the married guy to kind of look around
and get that other job before he quits
his current job. And by contrast, the
unmarried guys who are employed and who
don't necessarily like their job are
just more likely to quit their job
without having first identified another
job to kind of move into. So we just
have I think evidence both from the
sociological research kind of on norms
and behaviors but also from economists
and now from psychologists studying
twins that again part of the marriage
story is about the power that marriage
has in
institution in encouraging you know men
and women to be more responsible, more
prudent um and to enjoy kind of the
benefits of having you know generally
speaking a friend in their corner who's
kind of encouraging them, advising them
to do like the right thing in any number
of contexts. It's interesting about the
childhood environment being so impacted
because a lot of the stuff that comes
out about twin studies kind of says
there's a lot that you can do in the
childhood environment that kind of
doesn't really make that much
difference. I think when you control for
uh socioeconomic factors, even moving
your kid from the worst school in the
area to the best school in the area is
not a huge change. It's not this, you
know, vast, oh my god, it's all about
we've got to pick up the house and we
got to move to the new catchment area
because this is the school and if they
don't go there, they're going to get be
on the street and they're on drugs and
all the rest of it. And we have
something here which seems to be very
predictive uh and very powerful in terms
of actually adjusting the outcomes that
kids get. Yeah. Yeah, I mean I think you
know on the twin study issue there's
certainly some you know Judith Harris
for instance is famous writing this book
kind of arguing that you know because of
genetics there's not much that parents
can do to really influence the lives of
their kids. I think on some you know key
outcomes in terms of education income
and you know maybe some of the emotional
stuff that's that's true to an
extent.
Um, but you my my late mentor Sarah Mlan
at Princeton also kind of reviewed a lot
of this sort of more biological research
and did find that what she found for
instance in looking at family structure
that on the sort of like you know the
GPA stuff and you know standardized
testing stuff that seemed like genetics
were much more important than family
structure for instance but on some of
the social and emotional outcomes family
structure was a lot more predictive you
know for for young adults. But I also
want to just kind of remind us too that
there's more to life than just, you
know, scoring high on the SAT, right?
And I think um it's important to
understand and appreciate the sort of
networking point we were making earlier
in our conversation and that is that one
of the most important things that
parents do for their kids is help to
shape their kids networks, right? And so
it's like what you do on Sunday or don't
do on Sunday, what you do, you know, in
your free time on the weekends or what
kind of families you're having over at
your home, right? So there there are
kind of very kind of I think subtle but
important things that different kinds of
parents do differently um when it comes
to raising their kids that end up I
think being pretty consequential for
their children's sense of what counts in
life and how do they find meaning and
purpose in life as well. You know what I
learned the other day, which I feel
embarrassed about having looked at
behavioral genetics for ages. Steve
Stewart Williams wrote about the biggest
meta analysis that's ever been done.
It's basically every twin study that was
ever ever ever done. It's a 5 million
points of data or something like that.
It's every twin pair since 1960. And um
it's kind of commonly touted about that
IQ correlates 8 by the end of your
lifeish. So about 80% of your outcomes
in terms of IQ can be explained through
your genetics. I didn't realize that for
almost everything else uh
psychologically it goes in the other
direction. The direction that you would
expect which is you kind of start off as
a um genetically predisposed but
environmentally blank slate and that
over time things happen to benefit and
insult you and then you get toward the
end of your life and things change. But
that makes it that makes all of this
stuff much more explanatory. It makes
you less kind of uh genetically robust
or uh genetically predisposed which
actually does suggest well be careful
what you do with your life. Be careful
the people that you spend your time
around. Be careful the stuff that you
put into your eyes and your ears and
your mouth.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean I'll say it's
important. Well, so and and we see too
in terms of just kind of this sort of
longitudinal Harvard study kind of
looking at, you know, tracking first men
and now women as well kind of over the
course of their lives and then kind of
finds this to kind of check in with
people who have lived to into their 70s
and 80s and they're kind of asked what's
what's most important to you. And it
turns out, you know, not surprisingly,
you know, at this point that kind of how
well they did professionally, while
important, was not nearly as important
as their friendships and their their
their family relationship, especially
their marriages as well. So, um, that's
certainly one point I would make. But I
think just also it's important too to
understand and appreciate that on the
genetic side, there's just a lot of
evidence too that there's a strong
interaction, right? Right? So, it's like
you've got a gene for say depression
that just sort of acts upon someone in
kind of some kind of straightforward
way. It's more like there's often these
interactions. And there's been work done
by again my late colleague Sarah
Mlanahan showing that uh for boys who
have some kind of risk for kind of more
anti- I think social behavior like if
they get a lot of you know time with
with dad for instance they're more
likely to be you know flourishing in
exceptional ways. But if they're kind of
separated from their father, they're
more likely to land in trouble, you
know, and engage in kind of more risky
behavior as well. So the point is that I
think when we're thinking about kind of
genetics and sort of family structure or
relationships more generally, it's
important to just to kind of bear in
mind that there's often an interaction
between genetics and um and sort of
these profound social experiences that
we have or don't have in our lives.
Yeah. So looking at you mentioned
earlier on about um some of the
different sex outcomes that we're
getting at the moment. Read an article
from the center for social justice. Uh
from the day they start primary school
to the day they leave higher education,
the progress of boys lags behind girls.
The proportion of young men failing to
move from education into employment or
training has been steadily growing for
30 years. Since the pandemic alone, the
number of males aged 16 to 24 who are
not in education, employment or training
needs has increased by 40% compared to
just 7% of females. For those young men
who are in work, the much wanted gender
pay gap has been reversed. Young men are
now out earned by their female peers,
including among the university educated.
What do you make of that? Yeah, so I
think there are a couple of things
happening here. Um, and there's
obviously a very similar story that's
sort of unfolding. It's not quite as bad
in the United States as what you're
explaining in in the UK. Um but the the
dynamics I think are very similar. So I
think when it comes to education kind of
big education has done kind of profound
disservice to our boys you know in terms
of the curriculum in terms of the ethos
in terms of the amount of recess that
boys get. they're just not getting
enough kind of stuff happening in their
schools that would kind of allow them to
focus, engage, and really kind of um
embrace uh learning, you know, and so
that helps to account for why they're
more likely to be kind of dominating the
lower ranks of school performance and
not kind of doing well when it comes to
either vocational education and college,
you know, later in life. Um that in turn
then sets them up oftentimes for, you
know, failing professionally. Um as this
report you just mentioned, um you know,
indicates. I think big tech is also
having a big, you know, hand in this. We
all know from Jonathan Height's work,
from Gene Twangi's work that social
media is bad for our teenage girls, for
our young women as well. Kind of makes
them more anxious and depressed, among
other things. We haven't talked as much,
Chris, about kind of the way in which I
think gaming is really undercutting
teenage boys and young men's capacity to
do well in high school and then, you
know, other forms of education, to
develop meaningful hobbies, to socially
interact with the opposite sex, um to
date, you know, and then marry later on.
And it's really kind of, I think,
degrading young men's capacity to do
well in a in a wide range of spheres. um
including also um in the social arena as
well. So that's I think one you know big
factor that's that's in play here. And
then I think the other major thing I
would mention is just the kind of
inability of our society to kind of
paint a positive portrait of
masculinity you know for our teenage
boys and for our young young men to kind
of give them a sense like look you're
important you're valuable you have a
distinctive mission to fulfill. You've
got to get off, you know, the the gaming
device. You've got to focus on either
college or a vocational, you know,
education. Take your 20some years
seriously, job-wise,
date, marry someone, you know, get on
with it because you're important, you're
valuable, and you've got a unique
contribution to make both to potential
family and to your larger community and
to our our society as a whole. And so
absent, you know, a clear and compelling
vision of masculinity, I think too many
of our teenage boys and young men aren't
really motivated um don't feel like they
have a clear path to to walk down. And
so that helps to account to for the
kinds of statistics you just uh you know
touched on. Yeah, there's a lot
happening all at the same time which I
don't think makes very fertile ground
for young men to do well. Um, it seems
like when you take the brakes off women
socioeconomically in this new sort of
broad-based economy, they're just really
good. They're more conscientious on
average. They're better organized. They
do their homework. They're highlighter
girls. They then go into the office.
They turn up. They don't get drunk as
much. They don't do risky behavior.
Sure, that means there's going to be
fewer female CEOs because they're not
going to go and do the crazy,
ridiculous, obsessive stuff that some of
their male counterparts will. But I
think, you know, the middle roles, the
relatively desirable middle class, good
earning jobs are, it already seems to be
the case that they're going to be
dominated by women, especially ones that
have a a prerequisite that you've got a
college degree because it's two women
for every one man completing a full year
US college degree by 2030.
Um, then on top of that, you would
expect there to be, I guess, one of two
things that would happen. Either a sort
of bottom up or a top down solution that
would step in. If we see any group
falling behind in society, typically we
don't tell them to pull themselves up by
their bootstraps. What we do is we say,
"Here is a government organization and a
fund and a research that's going to work
out what's going on." So that would be
sort of the top down thing, which I
don't think is existing. And then the
bottom up, which would be um young men,
you can you can do this. Here is some uh
a positive image for you. There was this
really interesting um uh Reddit thread.
I think it was in maybe r/ liberals or
something like that. It's a little old
now. And someone had asked who do you
think of as being a really great
positive role model for men. If you we
don't like Joe Rogan and we don't like
Jordan Peterson and we don't like Andrew
Tate. I think the top voted comment was
like Aragon from Lord of the Rings. Like
if we have to go to a fictional fantasy
character in order to be able to find
someone by design, what are you doing?
Well, you're uh being able to imagine a
world in which there was a man that you
were happy with and did have the balance
of whatever it is that you think that
guys should have. And yeah, if a lot of
I if anything approximating traditional
masculinity is vilified and seen as
horrible, misogynistic, right-wing
bigotry or, you know, a return to old
traditional
patriarchal values that have we not
dispensed with this already? you want
women to get out of the the workforce
and back into the kitchen and you you're
not going to be able to get away with
that. It's it's not going to go well,
right? And so I think obviously we're
not going to go back to 1955, Chris, but
I think we have to figure out again a
kind of a contemporary model masculinity
that's compelling and that has at least
a substantial purchase in, you know, a
decent number of the key sectors of our
contemporary worlds. And absent that,
we're just going to continue to see, I
think, what I call the closing of the
American hear. It's a closing of the
heart more globally now unfolding where
you know women don't find enough of the
men in their lives to be you know um as
compelling and as worthy of commitment
as they you know would have in a
previous era and so they don't date they
don't mate they don't marry they don't
have kids and you know that's not a
that's not a great scenario so I think
the alternative is to kind
of acknowledge look you know we need to
offer men a compelling and distinctive
vision that um they can get around and
that women can appreciate in them and
kind of to to form again kind of the
basis for some kind of um agreement
apprec where where there's kind of some
division of of labor in the relationship
and in the family and also where you
kind of understand and appreciate that
women and men are you know on average
different in important ways and you
appreciate that your you know your
boyfriend your husband brings different
you know gifts to the relationship and
then later on to the family and absent
that we're you know we are headed for a
kind of catastrophe. What do you make of
the medium-term future for dating if
things don't change?
Not good right now. So, there was a
recent study done by my colleague Dan
Cox at the American Enterprise Institute
finding that more than half of both
single women and single men are not very
optimistic about their prospects for
finding a good partner. Right? So, I
think there's a lot of uh reasons for
concern right now. But I think one of
the mistakes that that many of us make,
including me, Chris, is that we tend to
think about a lot of our problems like
unfolding kind of in a linear fashion.
You know, kind of things getting worse
in some way, you know, moving in this
direction in some way. And yet I think
at a certain point often times at least
the successful societies or the
successful subcultures figure out a way
to build up a new institution or
pattern, you know, and so I do think
we're going to figure out um or or some
subcultures, Chris, are going to figure
out, you know, how do we get kind of
dating on track again because they
recognize either explicitly or
implicitly that this is so vital to uh
adult flourishing and to the future of
our, you you know, of our society as
well. Yeah, there's a it is interesting
to me whenever I
see women, particularly liberal women,
uh, sort of castigating men for falling
behind sort of, oh, poor whining
patriarchy, um, sort
of almost scolding men for not not
performing the way that they should.
And, you know, women are doing it, you
can, too. Look at all of the advantages
you used to have. and then you know
within the next couple of weeks from the
same Twitter account or the same
publication asking where are all of the
good men at when it comes to dating
prospects and you think you do
understand that we're seeing cause and
effect occur here that uh men falling
behind and not them struggling in this
new world in terms of the workforce is
creating precisely the der of eligible
partners that you're going to complain
about in future. So you know it is of
benefit to both sexes for both sexes to
flourish and it is of detriment to both
sexes for either sex to fall behind.
Yeah. Exactly. I mean I think it is kind
of ironic. You know some of the critics
of my own book get married have kind of
made the point well how can Wilox you
know argue for marriage if it's so hard
for me as a you know a talented or
decent young woman to find a good guy.
Um, and but they're kind of making this
argument from the left and they're not
kind of I think appreciating how so many
of our institutions have gutted you know
boys and young men's chances of
flourishing and they're not attentive to
the ways in which again in
education in even some ways in in the
labor force uh today um and in you know
the larger society we're kind of not
giving our boys and young men the kinds
of
supports and the kinds of challenges and
the kind of cultural identity that would
allow them to be the kind of man that
they would want to date, mate, and marry
later on in life. And they're often
opposed too to some kind of distinctive
vision of masculinity for fear that that
might be, you know, misogynistic or
inegitarian or whatnot. Again, I'm not
saying we have to go back to the the
1950s or the 1550s, right? But I do
think we're not going to make progress,
Chris, unless and until we can kind of
tell young men that, yeah, you have some
unique gifts you bring to, you know, to
relationships and family life and to the
broader society, and we want you to
cultivate those gifts. Um, and we're
going to honor you for, you know, making
an effort to um to be a good guy. Isn't
it interesting that you know when Title
9 got introduced about 50 years ago, a
lot of what was lorded as the sort of
traits that women should take on were um
drive, agency, independence, uh desire
for mastery and sort of conquer and
upward mobility and all of that stuff.
And uh you know, lo and behold, 50 years
comes along, the glass ceiling has been
fully [ __ ] blown off and they're now
rising up. And when you hear a lot of
the advice from similar sorts of places
now for men, it's the opposite. It's
your problem is your masculinity. Your
problem is your desire for master and
concrete and self- agency. And really,
if you were able to be more like look at
the girls, look at how nice and and
placid and and uh agreeable but
hardworking and conscientious. Look at
them. Like if you were just less
masculine, your main problem with your
masculinity is your masculinity. and if
you were just a little bit more
feminine, if you were a little bit more
female with it, uh despite the fact that
that was the road, the precisely the
road map that kind of got women out of
the issue that they were in only half a
century ago. So I want to say that
something that's sort of I I hope
appropriately nuanced here. So on the
one hand, one of the things that I find
in my book is that women who are married
to men, they rate as uh better
providers, Chris, and also as more
protective are more happily married. And
so I think these would kind of, you
know, correspond, you know, roughly to
what we'd sort of classically associate
with kind of pro-social masculinity, you
know, being a good provider and being
protective of your, in this case, your
wife. Um and and I for instance talk in
the book about there's one woman she was
she was in a subway um it was late at
night they've been out you know dating
and on a date and um the subway was
emptying out and finally there was just
this couple and then some sketchy guy
and as this the subway moves from one
station to the next this guy approaches
and you know demands their money and her
boyfriend at that point stood up and put
himself between the sketchy guy and the
woman and you know protected her.
Thankfully, the next, you know, station
was pretty crowded. They just darted out
and they were fine. But she said that
was kind of a bookmark moment for her
that this guy was willing to kind of put
his own, you know, his own body between
her and this guy and was clearly kind of
protective in the right kind of way. So
again, kind of having a husband or a
boyfriend who's protective and is
capable of providing financially in
meaningful ways is still very much
valued in the 21st century. But I also
find in my chapter on gender that having
what I call a husband who pays
attention. So it's three pieces. It's
about providing, protecting, and paying
attention um both emotionally and
practically, you know, to you as a woman
and to your kids when you have kids was
also super, you know, predictive of her
flourishing, you know, in her marriage,
be she on the left or on the right. And
so I think we have to sort of realize
that there are some ways in which this
contemporary moment I think is better.
Um we do expect men to do more in
contemporary families than was the case
for our grandfathers. That's good. But I
think the challenge today is we don't
have a a kind of enough regard for the
ways in which um you know even women
themselves when they're kind of asked
questions about what makes them happy in
their marriage are kind of revealing
that having a guy who's in some ways
more classically masculine is still, you
know, um a a benefit for them. I
remember reading a study about um maybe
it was women who imagined their partner
uh there being some sort of altercation
like the one that you spoke about and
them imagining them not standing up and
not protecting them. And it is I think
it was more destructive to
attraction than
infidelity. So, you're actually better
off cheating on your partner than you
are not standing up for her when
somebody comes up to to try and take her
purse,
right? And obviously my my point is
like, yeah, be faithful, but also you
That's another justification to be like,
"Hey, um, I'm going to sleep with your
best friend, but I did stop that guy
from stealing your purse yesterday."
Exactly. But but again, I think and the
problem you're right, is that we don't
do enough, you know, of basically
encouraging like, so I was raised by a
single mom, Chris, right? And so I
didn't have a father kind of like giving
me like the you know you know all that
sort of wisdom about how to treat a
woman or treat a girl right and one of
the things that kind of surprised me in
talking to women for my book was that I
can't tell you how many women said that
they really appreciate it when a guy
would when they're you know walking on a
sidewalk like in a you know some kind of
urban context or some kind of like you
know they're out about town right they
appreciate when the guy takes the street
side of the sidewalk and kind of keeps
them on the inside portion of sidewalk.
I'd never heard that right before
interviewing these women, but it was
like a reoccurring theme. But it's just
one way again of like the guy sort of is
basically physically expressing his kind
of, you know, desire to be protective
and and the women that I spoke to and
again on both the left and the right
kind of appreciated that that kind of uh
more chivalous uh behavior in the part
of their boyfriends and husbands. Yeah,
it's interesting. um just thinking about
what are the underlying uh fundamental
traits that this is talking about. So I
guess cheating is seen as a betrayal of
trust but it doesn't actually indicate
weakness. It doesn't indicate cowardice
in quite the same way. Uh again would
you know not saying that it's got to be
one or the other here. Um but right and
and and women though it's interesting
too is that one woman I spoke to also
mentioned that you know reasonably
successful woman living in the in the
Rockies that when she came home in the
evenings to her apartment that she would
kind of she was somewhat afraid. she'd
kind of, you know, look around, look in
the closet and things like that. And and
her kind of comments just reminded me
that, you know, when you kind of survey
women more generally, they're much more
likely to be concerned about their
physical safety than guys are and for
good reason obviously as well, right?
And so I think we again in this kind of
modern world that we live in, we don't
talk about that that much, right? But I
just think that again like women are
more attentive to their physical safety
and given that you know having a
boyfriend or or husband who kind of is
attentive to that as well and can kind
of you know stand in the breach if need
be is definitely appreciated. So I
learned from you that young men are more
likely to end up in prison or jail in
the US than they are to graduate from
college if they're raised in a non
intact family setup. Do you think that
this men's session thing that we're
dealing with at the moment could perhaps
be due to a disproportionate impact of
broken homes on boys versus girls?
So,
um I do think certainly one of the
reasons why young men are floundering in
today's world is that they're less
likely to have, you know, um a married
dad in the picture than was the case,
you know, 40 or 50 years ago or 60 years
ago. Um, so yeah, that's certainly I
think part of the, you know, the the
dynamic we're seeing. And it's, you
know, it was like the most surprising
statistic for me in the book for looking
at kids was just again that we do see
today, as you mentioned, that boys are
more likely to land in prison or in jail
today if they're raised outside of the
intact, you know, household um, than
they are to graduate from college. It's
a pretty striking, at least for me,
statistic.
Um but we do see even kind of for boys
who are hailing from intact, you know,
married families, they're more likely to
be floundering u than their sisters are,
you know. So that's part I think of the
the dynamic we're talking about today in
terms of the the relative problems that
boys and men are having. Um, but it's
not the only only factor in play as well
with this tall girl problem of
socioeconomically successful women
struggling to find a equivalently or
more socioeconomically successful
partner. Is the stay-at-home dad model a
workable solution? Can we just pivot the
flip the the dynamic in that way? Yeah,
you know, it's interesting, Chris. I
think there are certain I mean I know
plenty of guys who have you know been
successfully you know at home for
periods of time while their wife is out
working um to provide financially for
the family and have done fine right but
at scale Chris the answer is no and the
reason I say that is both in my book I
do find that for married moms they're
less happy when their husbands are at
home um you know as stay-at-home dads
than women whose husbands are employed
full-time. Uh we also know that when it
comes to divorce um when women lose
their jobs no effect on the risk of
getting divorced. When men lose their
jobs um their risk of divorce goes up
33%. So it just kind of tells us that
you know again even today there's a way
in which providing is um still coded you
know more more masculine. And I the
other thing too is that in the average
marriage
um even when guys are at home, they're
just not as attentive to all the kind of
details and nuances of kids schedules
and of kind of keeping the home as sort
of clean and well functioning as the
average wife would like it to be. And so
what often happens is that when the wife
is the primary earner or the sole
earner, she feels like her husband isn't
doing his, you know, share when it comes
to kind of managing the household and
also kind of managing the kids um the
kids' lives. And the other thing that's
interesting here too, Chris, is that
what my book shows is that, you know,
there's been a lot of talk about kind of
the rising number of female breadwinners
out there in today's world, but people
haven't really kind of focused on how
that's incredibly
stratified. And what I mean by that is
that we're seeing that sort of female
dominated, you know, breadwinner
households are overwhelmingly workingass
and poor kind of pattern. And upper
middle class and upper class households
are much more likely either to kind of
have roughly, you know, similar earnings
between mom and dad or to have dads kind
of leading out when it comes to um their
earnings. And what do you see in
general? you see obviously you see upper
middle class, upper class homes, much
more marriage, much more stable marriage
because again I think we still associate
for you know a number of important
reasons
um breadwinning with men and marriage
and family stability. So again, at
scale, I don't see kind of trying to
have large numbers of men stay at home
and care for their kids as being um a
good way of handling the challenges
we're facing. Now, it's also
interesting, we have some new work at
IFS, and super family studies kind of
just showing that there's this kind of
continuing gap. When you look at who's
getting married today, Chris, even
though women are outperforming men
educationally, it's still the case that
when you look at who's getting married,
you know, men are way more likely to be
earning more money than their, you know,
newly married, you know, their spouse.
Okay. So, in that way, do you think that
the decline in marriage rates could be
laid at the feet of socioeconomically
less desirable men? Right. And so I
think what we have seen also, you know,
there's a new piece from Richard Reeves
group um showing that almost all of the
recent decline in marriage is among less
educated women, not college educated
women. And what's fascinating about the
college educated women is that even when
they're marrying guys who are less
educated than they are, they tend to be
marrying guys who have good income. So
they're marrying, you know, cops,
firemen, guys in the trades, you know.
Um, so they're kind of picking the cream
of the crop, you know, financially even
when these guys don't have the same kind
of educational credential that they do,
right? And so the fact is that we're
seeing, you know, a lot of guys who
don't, you know, have as much education,
um, they're doing less well in the labor
force. So one statistic that I find in
my book, for instance, is about one in
four, um, prime age guys, um, who don't
have a college degree are not working
full-time. Of course, that's a huge, you
know, issue financially and otherwise
and would be one reason why we're seeing
kind of um you know, less marriage in
working-class and poor communities um in
the US. And the same is true for the UK
as well. Yeah. Why you mentioned to me
about the South Korean election with a
twist. Why do you think that's a good
analogy to draw to Trump? You were
saying? Yeah. So, um, what we saw
obviously in South Korea in the most
recent presidential election was just
that, um, the more conservative
candidate managed to kind of win the
election because he got a lot of younger
men who had turned kind of in a more
conservative direction, more
anti-feminist direction to vote for him.
And what's fascinating about sort of
South Korean case, I think, as well as
in part the American case, is that it
looks like when young men are
floundering and they're feeling they're
not really doing that well, like in
school and in the workplace, they're
more likely to identify with a kind of
anti-feminist or kind of hyper
masculine, you know, ideology, a kind of
Andrew Tate ideology, if you will. And I
think that helps to explain why, you
know, South Korea turned to the right
among young men in the recent election.
Of course, the young women in South
Korea were kind of turning to the left
culturally. And we saw, you know, kind
of a similar dynamic playing out here in
the US to some extent in the most recent
elections where um you know, young men
voted, one survey found 56% of young men
voted for Trump. Um and by contrast, 58%
voted for Harris. Um, and this is kind
of emblematic too of the way in which um
I think a lot of young men are kind of
frustrated with their um their uh their
performance in school, their performance
in the workplace and it makes them
gravitate you know sometimes to a more
kind of anti-feminist or hyper masculine
ideology and um they would certainly see
that in some ways I think with parts of
the the MAGA coalition including
including Trump himself. Yeah, I well a
lot of people thought that
the rise of black vote, immigrant vote,
Hispanic vote, single vote would uh fuel
the democratic sort of coalition, the
emerging democratic majority. How come
it didn't work out that way, do you
think? Well, in part because, you know,
larger numbers of black men and
especially Hispanic men, you know, voted
for Donald Trump. And some of that
dynamic is about again, you know,
younger guys who are kind of finding it
difficult to, you know, find a good
footing or foothold in the economy and
society. Um, and even I think
relationally, you know, and worrying
about their prospects as breadwinners
and potential husbands down the road.
And so they kind of find, you know,
Trump's message, which is both more
macho and also much more directed
towards men, you know, as appealing. I
think that's part of why we we saw, you
know, Trump win a majority of u the
voters in this round. Yeah. Well, wasn't
it Trump's success was really uh it was
pretty much everywhere. Like his uh 46%
of women voted for Trump, 55% of white
women voted for Donald Trump,
45% uh supported Camala Harris. So yeah,
I mean it's certainly the case that you
know it wasn't just the general dynamics
that we're talking about today that were
in play for for Trump. Um I think there
was also kind of a real sense that you
know obviously the cost of living and
inflation had been pretty high under
Biden. So there are you know a number of
different factors kind of driving the
Trump story. But I think certainly part
of the story here is that you know men
have gravitated towards um Trump and
moved towards the right including black
and Latino men to some important extent.
And they've done so in part because they
feel and Tyler Cohen wrote wrote about
this last summer talking about the vibe
shift, you know, before Trump was
elected because he was already kind of
anticipating this vibe shift. And he was
kind of arguing that one reason the vibe
is shifting again is that too many guys
feel like they're um they're not doing
well. They feel like women are
dominating, you know, their
institutions, the workplace, their
schools, etc. and they look at, you
know, at Trump and Republicans as, you
know, vehicles for um, you know,
boosting the fortunes of men in in
today's America. Yeah. Another really
shocking stat, Trump gained support
among every racial group except for
white people where he lost 1%. Wild,
right?
Super wild. I I mean, look, it's another
case, I think, of rules for thee, but
not for me, or the sort of talking left
but walking right or the luxury beliefs
thing from Rob Henderson. It's it's
largely um the rubber meeting the road
with this stuff. Okay, what's actually
going to happen when my uh my potential
future is on the line? Am I going to
behave or vote or procreate or design my
household or have you know move forward
in my career in the way that seems to be
fashionable or am I going to do
something that I don't know ultimately
uh people sort of vote with their
efforts and uh it it seems like I don't
know a little bit of a falling away of
the um able to say this while doing
something else. It I I don't know how
long that can continue to go for.
Right. And and I do think, you know, one
of the more hopeful signs that I would
look for from the center left is just
kind of a a growing willingness to sort
of speak, you know, simple truths that
have been kind of hidden for a while
just because they would like to kind of
re-engage their possibilities of
speaking to the broader electorate. We
have seen, for instance, pieces in the
Atlantic recently on the importance of
cities taking a harder line when it
comes to public safety. You know, I
think this is kind of the kind of thing
that the left needs to do if it wants to
kind of move back to the center and, you
know, have a greater shot at, you know,
again, winning a majority for the next
presidential election and just elections
in general as well. What is most
interesting from a research perspective
over the next couple of years for you?
What are you going to be focused on?
Yeah, the big question I'm thinking
about is whether or not uh it's not just
that marriage matters, Chris, but that
it might matter more than ever for both
kids and for adults. And what I mean by
that is that um I think in a world
that's more technologically distracted,
in a world that's more economically
unequal, in a world where a lot of our
core civic institutions are weaker now
than they used to be, it could be the
case that, you know, getting married and
having a family for adults is more
valuable emotionally and socially and
financially than for kids as well
because especially nowadays when dads
are more engaged with their kids. Um, so
the point is again that having like a
spouse, having a family could matter
more than ever for our, you know, adult
men and women and then also for our
kids. And I've already seen this with
kids and college graduation, for
instance, we're seeing that the link
between having an intact family and
graduating from a college is stronger
for millennials than it was for boomers.
So I'm just exploring the possibility
empirically that on some key outcomes
you might be finding in the near future
that again having a family, getting
married, staying married could be more
valuable in a world that in some ways is
more precarious now than it was, you
know, 30, 40 or 50 years ago.
Interesting stuff. Well, I look forward
to seeing what you discover. Brad
Wilcox, ladies and gentlemen, where
should people go? They want to keep up
to date with everything that you do. So
familystudies.org has a lot of
interesting stuff from my colleagues at
IFS Inst Family Studies. And then I'm on
Twitter, Brad Wilcox IFS. Heck yeah,
Brad. I appreciate you. Until next time.
Okay. Thanks, Chris. Congratulations.
You made it to the end of the episode.
And if you want more, well, why don't
you press right
here? Come on.
Top it.