Video summary
Gary Vaynerchuk begins his analysis of social media trends by rejecting predictions regarding platforms three to five years out, arguing that treating attention like day trading requires focusing entirely on today rather than romanticizing past successes or hyping future possibilities. He asserts that while major entities like Meta and Google will likely continue innovating through mergers and acquisitions, specific short-form video formats evolve rapidly; for instance, YouTube Shorts did not exist as a strategic priority three years ago until TikTok's pressure forced the industry to adapt. Vee emphasizes that he cannot predict which platforms will dominate in the future but maintains his strategy of being "all-in" on current opportunities because every minute spent gathering attention is critical for long-term growth, noting that regret often stems from not pushing harder when a platform was still emerging rather than waiting for certainty about its longevity. The discussion highlights specific historical and strategic examples to illustrate market dynamics, particularly regarding the potential revival of Vine by Elon Musk's Twitter following their acquisition deal where ownership of the IP remained intact despite the original shutdown. Vee recalls launching Grape Story with Jerome Jarre in 2013 as one of the first influencer agencies on Vine, signing early celebrities like Logan Paul and Rudy Monus before they became mainstream figures. He contrasts this with his current approach to YouTube Shorts, where he obsesses over search optimization because YouTube remains the world's second-largest search engine, allowing content to have a longer tail than TikTok videos which rely more heavily on immediate algorithmic discovery rather than keyword-driven search results months later. Vaynerchuk also addresses the integration of artificial intelligence into native social platforms through AirChat, expressing enthusiasm for its ability to blend audio and text consumption in ways that distinguish it from previous iterations like Clubhouse or Twitter Spaces. He notes that while early adopters were often tech-savvy "nerds," recent usage patterns show a broader demographic shift involving mainstream users over the weekend, signaling a potential evolution beyond being just another feature folded into an existing app. This sentiment extends to other emerging tools like Reclip from Amazon, which he views as a significant opportunity for non-creator individuals by recording rolling two-minute audio clips that can be enhanced with editing features to transform them into TikTok-style content, effectively lowering the barrier to entry for global creators. Throughout the interview, Vee connects these technological shifts back to his core philosophy of supply and demand regarding attention, explaining why Instagram faces increasing difficulty as more content is produced daily while user time gets fragmented across YouTube Shorts and TikTok. He uses historical precedents like Social Cam from 2011 or 2012 to demonstrate how short-form video eras rise and fall quickly, reinforcing his belief that waiting for a platform to mature before entering it leads to missed opportunities as seen with Vine's initial impact versus its eventual decline. Ultimately, he concludes that the most successful strategy involves constantly monitoring these waves without anointing any single new venture as definitive, while remaining ready to pivot instantly when market conditions change or regulatory threats like potential TikTok bans in America emerge within months.
Read the full video transcript
what are the platforms over the
next 3 to 5 years that you're the most
bullish and bearish on I can't answer
that question because it's not how my
brain thinks let me explain what I mean
day trading attention is don't
romanticize about yesterday
Instagram and don't try to get too
excited about tomorrow Elon posts
yesterday Vine question mark right so
Vines comeing don't overthink today I
don't know what's going to be there in 3
to five years I definitely wouldn't like
the reason I'm good my game is when it
happens I'm all in so I can only speak
about today and anybody worried about
three to five and people ask me all the
time what's next 3 to five years I don't
know I know that meta and Google are not
going to disappear so I continue to
think they'll innovate or m&a and be in
the game as macro companies but YouTube
shorts was not in the cards for me three
years ago right but then Tik tok's
pressure made them go there I think Vine
is going to be massively interesting to
watch when they reboot is that coming
back 100% I'd be it would make the it
would be El too smart to not do it does
Twitter own Vine yes right okay and that
was part of the deal yes once you know
but they shut it down but it's still
there and they own the IP and you know I
mean Vine is the absolute seed of this
generation short phone video started on
mine it was a profound thing when it hit
I remember looking at it day one I was
like oh this is different different and
it just completely captured youth
culture at that time and I was very
serious about it as a matter of fact I
launched you can Google this right now
everyone listening I launched probably I
mean the article said it like the first
influencer agency called grape story
with Jerome jar one of the first
celebrities on Vine and we signed Logan
Paul Rudy monus like all of these
characters Britney Furlong like King
like we were talking to all of them so I
to answer your question directly and not
get too scattered here I I don't know
what three to five years is going to
bring I know that for everyone who's
listening the answer is more and yes and
and meaning
my argument with everyone here today is
every minute that you don't spend on
Gathering more
attention is a minute that you're
potentially declining on your long-term
opportunity there's times to cash in on
your attention there's times to do other
things but I feel like a lot of people
will go you know we talked earlier about
regret the only things I regret as a
businessman is not going harder on my
thumb on the scale every time where I
knew the attention was I should have
made more Tik Tok videos six years ago I
should have done more Google ads in 2001
I should have sent more emails in '96 I
should have done more Tweets in
2007 and so whether it's you know we
haven't talked about live streaming I
mean there's so much going on with
twitch and all these live streaming
platforms Tik Tok live is very important
look we don't three to five years what
if [ __ ] Tik Tok gets banned by
America in seven months where does all
that attention go right I mean to me
that's a huge opportunity for Vine if
I'm Elon I'm sitting like okay if I time
this perfectly and I'm [ __ ] Elon
right like I'm that guy if I [ __ ]
announce Vine the day to like I could
probably get every like it could happen
in that would be insane what a [ __ ]
strategy you know and so I don't know I
know that as I sit here today right this
Nan second Instagram's harder than ever
because the supply and demand curve on
Instagram is hard more content was made
on Instagram yesterday than ever in the
history of Instagram but the attention
has been fragmented into YouTube shorts
into Tik Tok so how can Instagram be as
good as it was 4 years ago it's not
supply and demand supply and demand
supply and demand of attention I know
that YouTube shorts has a longer tail on
its views than anything else cuz
YouTube's the second biggest search
engine in the world so I know when I
make a short on YouTube I title it in a
way that more matches search than I
would on Tik Tok because I want somebody
in four months to search how do I do and
I show up right these are the things I
obsess over this is why I went so nerdy
in this book I went so [ __ ] detailed
that was only a recent update with
regards to shorts that they were using
keywords in title for search it it it is
only been a recent thing more people
have talked about but from the day it
started was showing up in result yeah
well it's something that we've it's
something that we've certainly uh used
on the channel That will'll put if
there's a short that comes up from this
it'll be whatever the title of it is
line Gary ve Gary V Chu that's whichever
is based on higher for search volume
course um Okay so
is there room in your opinion actually
even better question than that Naval
released airchat yes this week what's
your thoughts I love it I'm really
enjoying it I went ham this weekend this
has been a crazy week for me so I've
been a little bit sad that I haven't
been able to jam with it as much first
of all I love the beginning stages of
seeing AI so integrated into native
social right so for everybody who
doesn't know chat you know it's ironic
you may know this it's it's been around
for almost four years mhm they keep
iterating it and the latest version of
it has really caught fire last week with
by the way all those nerds from 20067
the Josh elans the mazios like all my
favorite homies from back in the day
they're all there it's the way it always
works the Nerds are always a few minutes
before the cool kids so air but now you
see a blend back to cool kids being on
there over the weekend in a way that
we've never seen before not even
Clubhouse It's usually the Nerds now for
air chat to not become Clubhouse or
other things AKA a feature right because
Twitter spaces his
Clubhouse it needs to keep innovating
but it's really cool right so if
everybody doesn't know it's it it's very
much like Twitter but the difference is
it's all audio so you record your Tweet
but then it transcribes it into the
written word but when you consume it you
can read it or listen to it and when
there's a conversation or a thread of
tweets it will just play almost like a
podcast it's really neat there's a lot
of cool things in it um so the way I
think about things are are they features
or are they permanent
platforms so is this going to get
gobbled up by some existing larger
platform and just get folded into the
correct feature list that's right so
obviously Twitter would be a natural
because it's it looks most like Twitter
um but this might have too much friction
for that the answer is the verdict still
out but when I think about the things
that people have asked me about in the
last several years uh Dustin is filming
in the background right now you remember
I was really on it with B real people
like be Real's next I'm like I think
it's going to be a feature right like I
don't see like now be real could have
built on top of it snaap it snap early
could have been a feature and then they
built more things into it and then
obviously their killer feature stories
became foundational to every platform so
you know I'm always paying attention
when new platforms pop uh recp I don't
know if you've seen this this one's on
my mind a little bit again I've been
watching it for several months it hasn't
popped yet it's it's on your phone it's
recording everything that you're talking
it's it's a recorder of everything oh
it's Amazon yeah it's like it's what
people are scared of thinking what uh
Alexa is talk about conspiracy theorists
uh but here's the interesting part it's
only recording the last two minutes so
it doesn't record everything it's a
rolling last two minutes you know what
that allows to happen when you're oh we
just said that thing oh that's very
smart that's cool very that's cool the
reason I thought Tik Tok was going to
explode musically was I'm like oh my God
this is social media or training wheels
they're giving people music they're
giving people all these edits it's going
to help non-c creators be better
creators yeah the reason I like recp it
allows everybody in the world to be an
audio content creator or video because
then when you when you're done with the
reclip you can like add features to it
and it becomes like a Tik Tok I think
they're on to something again these are
I'm always watching but I don't anoint
it's even rare for me to mention
something like reclip in such a
prominent platform like this podcast
because I don't want I don't I on the
record air trck recp I don't know but
I'm always in the lab watching I'm
always refining my day-to-day social
back to day trading tension and I'm
always watching for the next wave and
sometimes something I'll I'll tell you
this what I learned on social cam social
cam was a social network I think in 2011
or 12 that was hot for I don't know 48
seconds AKA a summer but I'm created on
it that helped me understand what to do
on Vine it was even like Vine actually
hit social cam didn't but it was short
form video and so when vine came I was
like wait a minute and then obviously
when the whole next era came I was ready
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