What You Need To Know To Day Trade Well This Week!

Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. >> Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of uh the accesstrader.com uh weekend update show. It is Saturday, Saturday morning. Uh again, I don't know when you guys will uh get this video either later this evening or uh Sunday morning, but again, my schedule's a little bit uh rough today. So, this is a few minutes uh I can kind of share my thoughts and kind of get us into the right frame of mind uh going into uh Monday, right? So, thank you very much for tuning in, guys. Take a moment out. Uh again, I appreciate all you guys taking a few minutes to uh watch these updates. Uh all I ask is click uh you know, click a like in the channel, support the channel. Uh and if you haven't done so already, come aboard, subscribe to the channel. Hopefully, again, I can continue to point you in the right direction. So, let's talk about it. um shortened week, shorten holiday week because of Labor Day. You could quickly see the difference between uh last week, although the action was really, really good last week. You could see like the volume kind of taper out and just die out uh after 11 12:00. Uh the majority of the week, you saw some pretty good value, a lot of liquidity. Um so the you could see the instant traders are coming back from holiday. It's a very very important point. Again, you always want to be uh in a market that is driving liquidity, driving volume because again, I don't care if you if you trade 10 shares, you always need to know there's institutional money flow coming behind you to drive prices in your direction. So, let's talk about it, right? Um I personally think, and I've been saying this for a very, very long time, I think there's too much uh inflation data out there. uh we had uh we had uh PPI come out and the market got absolutely slammed. Uh then CPI came out and the market rallied. It's it's literally the same data, guys. I again I I'm I'm really starting to believe that these Fed governors are being paid by the word. There's absolutely no reason you should have a reading backtoback days and backtoback days the market does completely the opposite which basically are giving you the same data. Uh we saw a pretty big decline on uh Thursday's session uh which we lost the 50-day moving average on the close and obviously we had an opportunity to reclaim it back on Friday which the bulls did, right? The bulls did um nice really nice rally to end the week. The bulls reclaim back uh the 50-day moving average. Uh the big point of reference there is going to be an FOMC meeting. Now, uh there is according to quote unquote according to traders pled, I don't know who these traders are, but according to traders pled, it went from 74% to 70 to 82 or 83% that there potentially could be a 25 uh base point rise on the Fed meeting this week. We shall see, said the blind man. We shall see. Uh the big story uh this week is kind of like the disconnect between members in the same group. There's a there's groups out there that are behaving very very bad. Uh excuse me, very very good. Sorry. Sorry. Very good. Um the hardware sector continues to shine. Uh Dell and again you can make a case that you know this was a driver uh this was a driver by Trump when he turned around and said everybody should be buying Dell blah blah blah blah. But the stock has acted uh incredibly weird. The hardware names are surging very very nicely. You got uh you got uh Dell going crazy. You got Huelet Packard, right? Look at look at H. Look at Helen Packard's chart, right? Beautiful move on Help Packard. App Apple after their kind of a yawn uh kind of a yawn um you know event, right? I think the stars and whatever the hell it was called uh event stock rallied really well. You can see the hard aspect, the hard uh hardware names are acting very very well. The opposite side of the spectrum, the software names, right? You had Oracle come out with earnings. Again, guys, this is where we talk about, you know, stop chasing prices in the after hours. Sure, maybe once in a while you get lucky, but you got you had Oracle up 7 8% and then all of a sudden Oracle completely died. Absolutely completely died despite having a really good quarter. Adobe again in the same group, right? And the same group uh did exactly the same thing. You know, they beat on the top, beat on the bottom and died out as well. So, you got to be very very careful. Again, I understand everybody loves the excitement and everybody loves this and that and the other third, but again, there is no edge, guys. There's no edge chasing price action, p price reaction, especially in the after hours when the liquidity is a lot less and spreads are a lot bigger. So, you have to be very very be careful on that. Semiconductors are starting to wake up, right? uh if despite the NASDAQ 100, the QQQ's down about, you know, half a percent for the week, uh there is a little bit of a disconnect in uh some of the semi and the memory names. Uh first last week, we had some incredible moves in Micron, in SanDisk, uh in AMD. You know, AM Micron reversed a little bit, right? Reversal a little bit or at least at least taking a break. I I really like this thing back uh above the 5day moving average this week. If it could get back above the 5day moving average this week, roughly around the $1,000 area, I think we could see recent highs. But again, you could clearly see we've been driving the point home of watch the 50-day moving average. Anytime a stock reclaims the 50-day should give you a 2,3 day move and the stock went from 970 to the 1040s uh within a 36-h hour period. Same thing with Sandis. Sandis had an incredible run. Really great run here uh on our pivot off this 1588 level. Traded all the way up to 1807. again digesting this recent move. Again, as long as it stays above the 50-day moving average, the digestion process should take a shorter period of time. So, those two names are uh you know, kind of a resting after the big breakout. Uh AMV also big breakout this week, right above the 50-day moving average. Now, it's just going through distribution, right? Distribution cycle. The longer it goes sideways, the higher probability it will attack the breakout high. Uh again, lo noted uh shortterm expiration came in this week for uh the 520s and the 550s within the next couple of weeks. So if this thing distributes for the first couple of days of the week, there is a really good chance if it doesn't give back the 50-day moving average, this thing can start climbing back above the uh above the uh recent highs of last week. Very very important uh to note. Um, let's talk about some uh other other uh semiconductor names that look good for this week and potentially could be uh market expansion candidates. Let's start off with ARM. I know it ARM sucks. We all know it sucks. This thing trades by appointment. There's like one share on the bid, one share on the offer. The liquidity sucks, but this is very, very close to reclaiming back the 50-day moving average. If the semiconductors continue to build and continue to distribute with price improvement, any close above the 50-day moving average on ARM, this thing could take off. And again, granted, it's not for me. There's just no liquidity. You have to literally sit there on the bid collecting liquidity. That's not the way I trade. But, you know, again, from the point of market structure, if the semis continue to work, ARM looks ready, ready to go if this thing reclaims uh the 50-day. Look at Qualcomm, right? Look at Qualcomm. Qualcomm now is building above the 50-day. You see that it reclaimed the 50-day moving average uh and reclaim back the August highs. This thing is just an a hop snip thrown away, right? The only thing left to reclaim is the 100 SMA. If this thing can can get back above the 100 day SMA, this thing has like 20 25 points in the next next supply zone of 2011. So, really nice looking setups on ARM. Nice looking setup on Qualcomm. Uh Marvel Marvel uh did exactly the same thing again. Got back above the 50-day moving average and going sideways. Watch this thing above uh last week's highs for continuation. Nvidia, again, your guess is as good as mine. What the hell is going on with the stock? Like I said in the last few videos, Nvidia is only good like once a month. It really is. It's once a month and it'll go on this run and then it'll just die and then one day they'll wake up and they'll start betting $10 out of the money calls for a two-day expiration and then stock is going to wake up. So this is another name that just for whatever reason cannot live with prosperity. Again, I'm not calling it a Tesla, which is the absolute worst for investors, best for trading, worst for investors. But this is starting to get to the point of, oh, wait a minute. How come the other semiconductors are rallying and this thing can't get even get a pulse for the exception of one time a year, right? Does make and one time a month doesn't make any sense. Um, guys, I'm going to watch this thing, right? I'm going to watch this thing just in case there is a little bit of softness in the semis. Um, it's held now the 34 EMA. This is just for a trade. It's not supposed to be a longerterm move. Um, but I'm going to watch this thing. It keeps on holding the 34 EMA. If this thing loses it this week, I'm I'm definitely interested for a trade for a potential retest back uh to the 50-day moving average. Uh, let's talk about SpaceX, right? SpaceX is getting a lot of call buying, guys. We're getting a lot a lot of call buying. We saw a 918 expiration, which is this coming week for the 160s. the 155s, 160s, 155s, 160s. We saw uh a little bit longer, right? We saw a little bit longer dated uh expiration uh bets as well. Uh it is getting super duper diet. It is going uh it is going sideways. So, that's a name uh we want to watch again for uh going into this week for last week's highs reclaimed. Before we go on guys, uh just as a side note, uh I know a lot of you guys have been taking advantage of the whole week of Labor Day sales. Uh it is good until uh Sunday night. So if you are planning to join us uh for the up andcoming week, take advantage of the disc discounted rate, hang out for 30 days and quickly see uh that uh pivots are something that you could potentially uh really take advantage of in your uh development. So let's move on, right? Let's move on. Let's talk about Tesla. Okay, what the hell, man? What the hell? I will say this much. Um, if you look at the chart, right? If you look at the chart, you will not not get anything out of it. You'll say, "Well, it's a what? One big chopst." We we had a pretty really good week with Tesla. Tesla's been really organically played in between channels. The problem is with the macro stage, right? With the macro stage, it can't get out of this range, right? It can't get out of it range. to try to get out of this range uh coming into the September 3rd highs and got faded. They tried to sell it off. It held the 20-day moving average. Something has to give here, right? Until the stock loses the 50-day moving average, you got to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. But at some point, right, at some point, you know, this thing really needs to price improve. We We haven't had a multi-week rally in Tesla in a very, very long time. Um, I've been trading Tesla about what nine years now, right? Uh, 90% of all my trades are Tesla. I mean, every sing literally 90% of all my trades throughout the day are Tesla because again, I understand the dynamics of the ranges and I trade the ranges. That's the whole point. But something on the broader market has to give uh like I said a second ago, as long as it continues to build above the 50-day moving average, you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. As soon as it loses the 50-day moving average, you can see it right over here. If it loses the 50, that means it'll lose the 20. Why is 20 important? Because it's held the 20 2,000 times already uh in the last 3 weeks. So, something has to give here. I I would love to see come Monday morning, buyers start coming in for weekly expiration 5, 10, $15 out of the money. That's what drives the stock. Nothing else, right? I don't care what news comes out. It could be, you know, deficiencies in deliveries in in in in Nebraska or Afghanistan or Pluto or Saturn. The point is the options market. When the options market lights up, it lights up the stock. The question is which way? It is getting very, very tight. Um, I'd like to see this thing get back above the 89 EMA. A lot of you guys are say, "What the hell is the 89 EMA?" It's pretty important. Uh, the 89 EMA on the upside. And if it loses the downside of the 50-day EMA, both hands stepping on the throat with extreme prejudice. But again, something has to give here. The daily chart is getting super duper uh super duper tight. Let me see what else I want to talk about here. Um the video we spoke about SpaceX, Qualcomm, Marvel, Tesla. Okay, look, I I I think going into this week, um we we need to see two things. Uh number one, if they do indeed raise rates, right? They do indeed raise rates. The most important part is to see how equities react on the natural move, not the knee-jerk reaction, uh not the second move. As as we all know, the first 19 moves on a Fed day is going to be a a fake out. We'd like to see the structure, the overall structure kind of play itself out, right? The sideways consolidation above the 50-day moving average despite losing the 50-day from one day on Thursday so far is deemed very, very bullish. If you look at a lot of charts, you'll look at a lot of charts this week and go, "Man, this is gross. This is disgusting." That's why I'm kind of sticking to that semiconductor group for guidance because semiconductors at least are coming above their channels. They're building above the 50-day moving average and they have the highest probability for continuation. The higher the continuation of the semiconductors, the higher probability the cues will finally wake up and get back above the highs from two weeks ago. We shall see, right? So going to this week guys, I'm concentrating on the semiconductors. Obviously I trade every single day. Uh Tesla, keep an eye on SpaceX. Keep an eye on SpaceX just in case it's lights up again and gets back above last week's highs. If it does, maybe we get a really aggressive expansion date. Guys, have a great great day. Again, happy Saturday. Happy Sunday. God bless you all. I hope you everybody is well in your family, your health, your happiness and your projection or your trajectory in your business as well. Guys, God bless. Have a great weekend and God's help. I'll see you all on Monday.