"What's Coming Is WORSE Than A Recession" - Why Only The Paranoid Will Survive | Patrick Bet David
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
Patrick Bet-David argues that America's political cycle, which shifts every eight years between Republican and Democratic administrations, fundamentally prevents long-term strategic planning beyond a two-decade horizon. He contends that no single leader can remain in power for twenty years to execute consistent policies on issues like border walls or social benefits; instead, the system forces compromise through Congress and the Senate, preventing extreme but potentially destructive unilateral actions. While he acknowledges this instability is problematic for building lasting philosophies over 20-year periods, he notes that it also acts as a safeguard against total destruction if one leader becomes detrimental to the nation's long-term health. The geopolitical landscape presents further challenges with rising global conflicts and shifting manufacturing dynamics. Bet-David highlights India's emerging role as a critical alternative to China, noting that while China has overexpanded rapidly—evidenced by building entire cities replicating Paris—and faces demographic decline due to its one-child policy (with an average age of 38.4), India offers a younger workforce with an average age of roughly 27-28 and produces top-tier engineering talent from institutions like the IITs. This shift is causing friction, exemplified by Apple losing $350 billion in valuation as it moves iPhone production to India, prompting China's anger despite its dominance in that market. The situation is compounded by the semiconductor war, where Taiwan holds a monopoly on advanced chip manufacturing essential for global technology and automotive industries, making its protection vital amidst tensions involving Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. Financially, Bet-David warns of an impending debt crisis and potential depression, citing concerns from figures like Ray Dalio and Michael Burry's shorting of the S&P 500. He advises against trying to time the market or gambling on volatile assets like crypto without deep expertise, noting that missing just five days in a bull market can cost investors significantly over two decades. Instead, he advocates for maintaining optionality through cash reserves, Treasury bills, and index funds while avoiding speculative ventures unless one possesses disproportionate knowledge of them. He suggests that those with high risk tolerance might explore non-duplicatable assets like art or specific small businesses becoming available during economic downturns, but emphasizes that most people should avoid the "gambling mentality" often seen in crypto circles where individuals bet on trends rather than fundamentals. To survive this era of uncertainty and widening wealth disparity driven by AI acceleration, Bet-David stresses the importance of cultivating positive paranoia—balancing optimism with a constant awareness of potential failures. He urges individuals to focus on learning new skill sets every 18 months rather than spending time consuming entertainment like Netflix or TikTok without adding value. Furthermore, he advises entrepreneurs and investors to prioritize relationships with stable, responsible people who have families and mortgages that prevent them from making reckless decisions, contrasting this with the instability of single young professionals prone to distraction. Ultimately, he believes that while capitalism prevents stupidity by protecting capital, society must remain vigilant against overreach by powerful entities revealed during crises like COVID-19, ensuring that the American system remains accountable and continues to serve its citizens effectively.
Read the full video transcript
The problem with America today's the
following. Here's one of the problems
with America, which by the way is a
beautiful thing but it's also a problem.
Whoever that gets elected, we have
cyclical cycles, okay? You got Carter
gets elected, then it's Reagan senior.
Then you have Clinton.
Then you have Bush. Then you have Obama.
Then you have Trump. Then you have
Biden. So, Republican, Democrat,
Republican, Democrat, Republican,
Democrat. So,
every time you do this, every 8 years
the system is like changing. So, cycles
are changing. Whatever you're doing is
changing. So, you can't really
consistently build on a philosophy over
a 20-year period because in America,
you you can't put a 20-year plan in
place. There is no such thing as a
20-year plan in America cuz whoever's
the next guy that's going to come take
your job is going to say no, we're not
building that wall. No, we're not going
to do that. No, we're going to cut those
benefits. No, we're going to add these
benefits. No, we are going to spend more
money. No, we are going to do that. No,
we are going to leave this war. No, we
are going to get into this war. The
these things the the the complexity of
what we're asking about
is challenging because no one leader is
going to run for 20 years.
We just don't have that. Okay.
Would you want it?
I
I- In a In a way when it comes down to
the economy, uh yes, I would want it
selfishly for me and you because we're
alive today. Is it good for America
long-term? Absolutely not, okay?
Absolutely not because if that one
person is a shitty person that gets into
office for 20 years, this thing's gone.
It's destroyed. Okay, so at least this
allows us to not be able to go super
extreme because you have to get it
through Congress and Senate and it's
already complicated enough to do that.
But to fix this thing, you're never
going to have both sides agree
philosophically economically on what
they're going to be doing over a 20-year
about while all this stuff is going on.
You have
uh um the the war right now with uh
China and India
that is also taking place with iPhones
are now being made in India. You can now
get iPhones where on the back of it says
made in India. First time. Not made in
China. It says made in India. Really.
Guess who blocked TikTok in their
country? India. Guess who's blocked a
hundred apps of China?
India.
Mhm.
India is not afraid of China. Now, why
does China not like India? Why do they
always behind closed doors talk [ __ ] yet
at the same time they're part of BRICS?
You got Brazil, you got Russia, you got
India. You know, you got China and I
think it's South Africa that's part of
the BRICS, right? Okay.
So, they're part of the same thing, but
there's also way of, you know,
competing.
The reason why I like India a lot and I
think India is going to play very
important role here is because India has
seen how China negotiated with US
and they've realized we're not doing
that.
But, India's also seen the mistakes
China made with the one-child rule and
overexpansion
and what's going on with a lot of these
properties that they built out in cities
that looks like just like Paris. I don't
know if you've seen the city they build
in China. It's a city. Everything Paris
has, it has.
Mhm.
It looks identical to Paris. If you
Google this
of architecture?
If I tell you if I show you the picture,
you would think it's Paris.
They spent billions of their own money
to build a city replicating exactly
Paris. That's what China did, okay?
Wow.
So, we're talking about, you know, the
whole everything. Everything they have
they have a Champs-Élysées, same exact
model that they have over there.
Exactly. When you see the pictures like
when we're done, I can't wait for you to
see these pictures to see what that
looks like. So, China overexpanded very
quickly. India's watching. China they
had their one-child uh one-child policy.
The average age of a Chinese right now
is 38.4 years old. India's 27-28. Okay?
India's uh IIT Institute is producing
incredible engineers. Many companies
here will hire Indian engineers and
they're rock stars, better than MIT in
many cases. So, I think India's very
important for the next 20, 30, 40 years.
Very important. As long as India is
there,
China's going to hate it. They they
they're not going to like it. The fact
that Tim Cook right now has got a very
hard job. I think Tim Cook in a span of
4 weeks lost 350 billion dollars of
valuation for Apple in 4 weeks.
350 billion dollars, okay? One because
iPhone 15 didn't do what they expected
it to do. Two because China is now
giving them a hard time because China's
their number one market of iPhones they
sell. Now China's sitting there saying,
"Wait a minute. We sell more iPhones in
this country than anywhere else, yet
you're giving our business to India? Who
the hell do you think you are?"
Right.
Then on the back end, the real war
that's taking place is the semiconductor
chips. And there's different levels to
the semiconductor chips that's being
built. And China's specializing the
cheapest kind to make, the easiest kind
to make. Where some countries have
specialized on the tough kinds to make
when it comes onto semiconductor chips.
This is why China can't stand Taiwan
being there. This is why China wants
Taiwan because Taiwan specializes in
building the extremely technical
semiconductor chips that the rest of the
world uses. And then there's complete
other aspects to this that you can get
even deeper on. So, Taiwan's going to
play a very important role.
You know, we can't have a Russia-Ukraine
or a you know,
Israel-Palestine-Gaza-Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey.
We can't have that taking place with
Taiwan. Taiwan needs to stay separate.
That needs to stay protected.
How we do that? I don't know how we're
going to do that. We're getting involved
in one too many wars, but if if Taiwan
stays free and China relies on them
because China destroyed the world during
COVID. Absolutely destroyed. We realized
80% of medications being built there.
80% of technology that we needed is
being built there. They controlled
everything. Car pricing, used prices
went up 50%. Like, what are you talking
about? You mean to tell me I bought this
car for $90,000, it's used, you want to
pay me $130,000? Yes. Are you serious?
Yes. Why? We don't have chips to make
cars. Are you kidding me? No. Rolexes,
they weren't making Rolexes for 18
months. They didn't have equipment to
make Rolexes. You go to a Rolex shop,
they had one one watch. Like, what do
you have? We only have one watch.
Can I order Rolex? No. It weren't 12
months, you're not going to get Are you
serious? Yes, nothing. This is what was
going on at Rolex stores. So,
again, the stuff that gets me optimistic
is India,
is Taiwan, is we're committed to the
semiconductor business here. Uh the
things that concern me is China, is
Erdogan being wanting to be involved in
the Israeli war, because most people
don't realize the most powerful military
in the Middle East is not Israel. Israel
is powerful, but Israel has 300,000
soldiers, of which I think 150 is
reserve.
Turkey has nearly 400 active, 350,000
active soldiers, the number one military
in the Middle East. If Turkey gets
involved, you know, so we have all these
death things that we're looking at.
Obviously, the military industrial
complex which Eisenhower talked about
where be careful with these companies
like Raytheon and Boeing and General
Dynamics and these guys that are making
a lot of money when there's wars.
We have to be careful with that taking
place. We have to be very careful with
that when it's taking place. But, uh
yeah, it it it's very complicated, very
complex. Ray Dalio says a depression
could be possibly around the corner. A
lot of these guys are fearing what is
taking place today. Michael Burry
shorted the S&P 500, $1.6 billion of his
clients' money. And now, he did it in a
way where, you know, you're kind of
protected, but still, he's not
optimistic about the S&P
500 what it's going to be doing. Uh one
too too moving parts for us to sit
there. What will happen? The rich are
still going to get rich. The innovators
are still going to find a way to, you
know, win. The people who learn how to
use AI on their side, they're going to
advance and excel even more. The
acceleration and the disparity between
the rich and the poor is going to get
wider and wider and wider. Why? Because
most people are going to spend majority
of their lives on Instagram, on YouTube,
on TikTok. They're not going to learn a
new skill set. They're not studying AI
right now. They're not studying
technology right now. They're not
learning new skill sets right now.
Harvard
did an article, Harvard Business Review,
did an article saying to stay
competitive right now, every 18 months
you have 10 new skill sets to learn as
an executive.
It wasn't like that. It used to be 10
new skill set every 5 years. Now we have
to learn 10 new skill sets every 18
months. How the hell do we keep up? So
so that
this is the part where
you know,
we talk about the only the paranoid
survive. Like right now you have to be
looking at this shit's out there. What
part of it do I control? What part of it
do I have not no control over? If not a
billionaire or a hecta or a
deca-millionaire, man, I got to figure
out a way to increase my market value or
else I'm going to get crushed. You're
going to over the next 10, 20 years. If
you're going to spend more time on
Netflix, more time watching all these
shows, more time playing all these
games, more time watching all these
TikTok, Instagram, if you're going to
spend more time on that than
building value for yourself and learning
new skill sets, yes, the market's not
going to favor you the next 18 to 36
months. But if you do that,
fortunately for that community, they're
going to be okay. This doesn't mean a
recession is still not coming, though.
Okay, so let's start pulling apart some
of the issues. So the geopolitical part
of this
comes down to is there something that we
can do to position ourselves?
Um
you were talking earlier about we create
a matrix and it's like, okay, do we go
to war? How bad is it? Like all the
different scenarios and we run through
them. Um so, but let's sort of put the
pieces on the table. We have
global conflict and that's going to do
what it's going to do and we need to
think about what the plan of attack is
there, how we position ourselves well.
We have the debt crisis, which is just
probably the thing that weighs the
heaviest on my mind. It seems the most
inevitable and because it's so in plain
sight and not at all sexy, but nobody's
freaking out. That one makes me the most
nervous cuz you can just run the math
and it seems inevitable that it things
have to break for that to work. Um
you've got the what we'll call the cold
war of manufacturing and where that's
going, Apple, China, India, all
competing.
But
ultimately, how do people begin to
actually put together a battle plan? So,
one of the you you had a really good
video about advice for young men and one
of the things that you said was you need
to be aware of what's going on.
And I really woke up to that at the
beginning of COVID. COVID was a grand
moment where it's like, look behind the
curtain, there's the Wizard of Oz and I
began to see how things were actually
happening. That was very revelatory and
just as if you want to be an
entrepreneur, the ironic advice that I'm
going to give you is you need to learn
about the body because if you can get
control of your body, if you can change
your physique, you're going to find
discipline, consistency, you're going to
see that it really adds up to an actual
transformation and you can apply all of
that to
um business. Ones are Yeah, to business,
to anything really.
Once you begin to understand how the
world actually works, now you can begin
to position yourself to weather any
storm. But you really do have to
understand how the pieces move around
the chessboard, how you're being
manipulated. Um and
I don't it certainly has not then
provided me a sense of clairvoyance and
oh, I know exactly what to do, but I
feel like it makes me ask a better
caliber of question.
To me, the caliber of question right now
is what is the position someone should
be working themselves into? So, I'll
paint the picture that I think and then
tell me if you disagree if there's a
better thing.
Okay, number one. I think because only
the paranoid survive, there's actually
two things you need to be paranoid about
right now. Paranoia number one is you
can pull out of the market too soon and
miss real opportunities. And since no
one is going to be able to accurately
forecast the timing, you have to be
thoughtful about that. So, one strategy
might be just that you dollar cost
average in every day, make sure that you
have a certain amount of savings so that
you're not going to find yourself in a
panic situation. And as Morgan Housel
said, uh, the the whole purpose of
having cash in a bull market is to make
sure that you don't have a forced sale
in a bear market. Now, I thought that
was a a really wise way. So, um, what
I'm going to present to people is
there's so many variables on the table
and I don't know how they're going to
go. I just want you to be in a position
where you have optionality. So, we're
going to optimize for options. To do
that, you're going to want to be largely
in
um, cash and index funds, which is not
going to sound sexy. And when I say
cash, I'm talking money market, Treasury
bills, something like that.
5 points right now.
Yep.
Which is [ __ ] amazing.
Yep.
All day, every day, I'll take it. Uh,
now would not be the time, in my
opinion, to invest in anything where
you're not just an absolute complete
expert, where you have so much
disproportionate knowledge that you're
able to really recognize a deal when you
see it. So, I've heard you talk a lot
about some commercial real estate stuff
that you're looking at because you know
things are going to go on sale. You,
oddly enough, I still find this so
fascinating, you really understand the
baseball card market. So, you'll know a
deal when you see a deal. So, it's like
that to me, optionality,
cash, um only investing either sort of
blindly in index stocks, not just
completely removing yourself cuz you
could miss, you know, it could be 6
months, a year before 2 years before
this is Who Who knows? We really can't
predict it. But that we are in a time of
such volatility that if you are not
taking every step with sort of maximum
paranoia,
uh you're making a mistake. So, that's
I'm sure if somebody were here, they'd
have a lot of questions for that, but
that's my rough guidance to myself.
I think it was fantastic. I think it was
fantastic and we're very aligned. Look,
I mean, here's here's also the thing,
right? Like where
you're you're sitting there watching
some of these guys sitting on a lot of
cash. Why are they sitting on a lot of
cash? Are they sitting on a lot of cash
in in case [ __ ] hits the fan? Is that
what they're doing? Are they just kind
of sitting on a lot of cash wondering
I don't really know what's going on.
When I say people, I mean Berkshire
Hathaway. I mean, these these guys have
a lot of cash right now they're sitting
on the table.
And uh you know, maybe they're not
buying value stocks yet because they
don't yet believe value stocks are here.
Berkshire Hathaway, okay?
If you're not in this business,
if if you're not in the business of
investments, financial advisor, broker,
day trader, don't play around.
Do not play around and get crazy about
it. Um crypto, a lot of people got into
crypto and NFT and that was not their
world. They didn't know about it. They
lost a lot of money. I mean, couple guys
made $90 million, but the people that
bought their stuff lost $89 million, but
they got their money. There's a lot of
guys that made the money in NFTs, but
it was a gamble
for everybody and everybody's like, "Oh
my god, but I believe in it and all this
other stuff." Okay, great. That's pretty
crazy. You know, what about this and
what about that? Now,
does that mean NFTs are going away?
Absolutely not. My kids still buy stuff
on Roblox and skins and all that.
There's an element of it that is not
going to go away.
Guaranteed.
Is there a 95% of the NFTs that are not
coming back? Yes, probably. Some of them
are going to be gone. Again, my opinion.
I I have interest in
things I know about
and I'm interested in like right now,
you know, I'm looking at stuff the card
market got destroyed
the last 6 months. Destroyed.
Guys are sitting on big cars they were
thinking they're going to make a lot of
money on it. They're not right now.
Okay? Cars that would have sold for $2
million 2 years ago are selling for
$400,000 today.
Wow.
But they're going to end up selling for
that value. They're not going away
because it's art. It's non-duplicatable
assets. You can't duplicate these
pieces. Especially if it's things that
are
very few of, okay? So, if one of one,
they're not going to go away. Art. Jamie
Diamond's got a $900 million art
collection. Why?
They They know why he's telling me about
a picture he has in his
office. He showed me this yesterday that
he paid $200,000 for it. That picture is
probably worth 8 to $10 million today.
Uh art money in art being made, again,
non-duplicatable
assets
are very, very valuable. Whatever
there's few of, very valuable. But only
touch it if you know a lot about it. If
you don't, don't even get close to it.
If you know nothing about crypto, don't
even get close to it. Don't get too
crazy about, "Oh my god, I'm hearing,
you know, Bitcoin's going to go to
100,000." It may go to 500,000. But
don't do it because
you're guessing cuz somebody else said
it. Do it because
you've done a lot of due diligence in
it. So, if you don't want to have that
kind of a risk tolerance, indexing is
the way to go
to play it safe. Now, to to the small
community of crazies
that
have an itch and a tolerance for
madness, okay?
This isn't everybody. This is some.
When you have a certain amount of money,
I'm talking to my Goldman guy. He comes
in, we're having our conversation. He
says, "Hey, here's what I think we can
do with this amount of money." I said,
"Okay, what about it?"
He says, "Here's a strategy we can use
the next 90 days." I said, "Okay."
I said, "Do you have any questions for
me?" He says, "I got one question for
you. Are you okay if in the next 6
months we lose $55 million in this?"
What a great question. Just straight up.
I'm like,
"Mhm, no. I'm not okay with this."
big no.
He says, "Uh no problem. Totally get it.
Then we can't go the way that this is
one of the options we can go in."
"Because what do you think are the
chance of a World War happening next 6
to 12 months?"
"I don't know, man. I don't know if I'm
at 50%, but I'm at 10%. Well, 10 is
pretty high." "Yeah, I agree." "Okay, if
that happens, how bad is it going to
be?"
You know, like during COVID that went to
18,000. I don't know if you remember for
that minute that that went to 18,000.
Everybody was like, "Holy [ __ ] what's
going on?"
But very quickly went back to 32,000.
So, it recovered very quickly. Okay.
So, what does this mean?
If you think a possibility of craziness
is going to happen that you keep cash
and it happens, you can buy and dollar
cost average. Okay. Yes. You think
you're that brilliant that you can time
it? Historically, very few people have
been able to do it and those who did got
purely lucky. Do you want to be part of
that camp because most people,
historically, what happened to them?
They missed being in the market on the
five best days.
Correct.
And missing those five best days ended
up costing them the difference between
13% over a 20-year period to making
7.8%.
And that's a lot of money, by the way,
between those two. So,
if that's not the world you want to
play, don't do it.
Don't at all do it. For me, the game
we're playing
is a different game. The game is
there's going to be a lot of assets for
sale the next couple years. Okay?
And if you made the right choices
and you have cash and some of these
assets
don't perform the next couple years
there's the opportunity to pick up
assets. There's the opportunity to pick
up small businesses. I'm talking to a
guy who runs a
you know,
a business that they're doing 34 million
a year
and he I said, "How many companies are
there in the marketplace that you could
buy right now that are between 5 to 10
million dollars?" There's at least
eight. How many of them can't stand you?
One of them we never talk. I said,
"Okay, the other seven, how many of them
love you?" Three of them. Do they or
four know you? They know of me, but we
don't have a relationship.
Get it close to them as soon as
possible. Make the following phone call.
This is what I tell these guys. This is
what the call sounds like. "Hey John,
listen man, we're both in the same
industry. How's business?"
And you'll know by their answer how it's
doing.
They're going to say, "Oh, great. Unlike
XYZ, we did 32% last month over last
year." Proof. Okay, great. Guess what?
That's not who you want to talk to.
Next call, you got six more left. Okay.
"Hey Larry, how are things?" "Oh, um
yeah, I mean, look, I mean, some areas
we're doing good, some areas
Why? What What's going on? Did somebody
tell you something?" Okay. Boom. Check.
What's the conversation? "Larry,
here's what's going on. The reason why
I'm calling you. We're getting calls
from guys in our space
and
some of them are not one are not doing
as well as they thought they were going
to do and they're about to run out of
cash and they're calling us because we
have access to certain relationships and
contracts and technology that they want
to take advantage of.
I thought just to give you a call
because we're within the same space.
Are you in a place right now where you
want to entertain possibility of a
partnership where we can help you with
our company or no? If no, let's I'm not
going to impose, but if you are, maybe
we can have that conversation."
5-second pause.
"Uh you know, about 9 months ago I would
have told you to go go hell,
but uh
yeah, maybe we can talk. Perfect.
Um
when do you want to come to the office?
Or would you like us to come to your
office?
Would it be okay if we first met at a
coffee shop away from everybody? No
problem. Let's do that. Then he goes to
sit down. What's going on?
Look, man, I don't know if I want to do
because I heard this and I heard that
and I heard this. I don't want to be
ripped off and I don't want to be this
and I don't want to be that. Bro, let's
just see what we can do with the
numbers. If we can't, great. If we can,
we'll support you, go do your thing.
Then the conversation starts. So,
there's different levels right now in
the marketplace.
If you have cash, a lot of it,
companies are going to be for sale the
next 3, 6, 12 months, and there's going
to be a lot of opportunities for you to
increase your market share within the
industry. If not, you're somebody that
doesn't have a very high risk tolerance,
do not screw around the next 6, 12
months thinking you're Nostradamus and
you can predict the future cuz the
market's going to destroy you. It's
undefeated.
Yeah. Yeah, timing the market is a
ludicrous proposition. People
nonetheless do it, but what I find is
that it actually attracts people that
have a gambling mentality. That was my
biggest surprise getting into crypto
because I don't have a gambler's
mentality at all. Uh so, I just had a
failure of theory of mind, so I did not
see that coming. And then I was in a
chat group and I realized, "Oh my god,
all of these people are poker players."
I was like, "This is the same
mentality." Like, to them, they're
getting a gambler's high right now of
taking a risk on some crazy coin and,
you know, rolling the dice and seeing if
they can time everything correctly.
And I just thought, "Whoa, okay, that's
a a very different beast." So, yeah, in
given that my goal is to help people put
together ideas that are actually going
to help serve them,
um
this to me feels like the time to learn
what paranoia, positive paranoia really
is. Success is really a game of mixing
optimism and paranoia. You're going to
need both. And if you don't have a
constant sense of this could all go
wrong, I could be wrong. I could have
the timing wrong. Maybe there really
will be a recession. Maybe there won't
be a recession. Um if right now feels
like peak predictability, you're really
in trouble. That would be the thing I
would just red flag instantly if you
feel like you have a real sense of
what's going on.
Uh yeah, I would say not the right move.
And so figuring out, okay,
how do we deal in a time of massive
uncertainty? What I find so interesting
about Ray Dalio, and it makes me very
sad that he doesn't like to talk about
this, is that Ray is extraordinarily
good at understanding the historical
trends.
The problem is everything is sort of
plus or minus 50 years.
And it's like when you've got a swing
like that, there's just almost nothing
you can do with it.
But let me ask you, do you see, because
I think one of the real um
one of the real roads. Maybe it's a 0.1%
chance, maybe it's a 70% chance. Uh what
do you think the odds that we are
already in some sort of Roman
Empire-like
decline?
Meaning already in it in that it will
happen in the next 10 to 15 years.
Um
I don't I don't know if we're there.
I'm not in I'm not in the doom and gloom
yet.
Why?
Because
um
the great thing about capitalism
is what? Here's the best thing about
capitalism.
Capitalism prevents you from doing
stupid things
because it's going to hurt your capital.
Okay?
When I recruit a sales people over the
years,
I gave score. There's a scoring system
in this book Choose Your Enemies Wisely
on who you can have your running mates.
15 qualities for running mates and you
score them based on six different
qualities. Okay.
I would look at guys and I would say
which one of the people I work with is
going to give me the least amount of
headaches. And here's what I learned.
Okay.
Extremely good-looking guys and girls,
single in their 20s, gave me the biggest
headaches. Why? Cuz everybody wanted to
be with them and testosterone levels
high at that level. And guess what?
They're going to fool around. You may be
high one month and kill it. Next month
you're dating three girls in the office.
And one of my best girls who made a lot
of money last year, you just broke her
heart. You left her for another girl.
She can no longer come to the office cuz
she's embarrassed and she left us to
another company.
So do that for about 3 years and then go
see 17 therapists who have no clue what
sales is like. Then you're going to
realize I have to change my approach.
Then I'm sitting there
and saying, "Man, that guy over there is
so boring."
Dude, he is so boring. Nothing's
exciting about him.
But he went from making $500 a month
selling insurance
to $1,000 a month 3 months later
to making $2,000 a month 3 months later
to making $4,000 a month a year later.
Then he's making $6,000 a month 6 months
later.
Then a year later he's making $8,000 a
month.
Then 3 and 1/2 years later he's making
$18,000 a month steady.
Man, you are There's nothing about you
that inspires me.
But you know what? Here's what I
learned.
He was married and he had kids.
So what's the point? He has to make it
work.
He has to make it work.
Cuz he has to protect those two kids
that he has.
He has a mortgage. He has to make it
work. He can't go screw around. He's
married. The likelihood of him going and
clubbing and partying with all the other
single people and smoking and doing
ecstasy is lower.
So, I realized I have to invest my time
in people who are the most bankable
long-term.
Stable home, stable relationship, more
things to live for, more things to work
hard for, more things
that will prevent you from making stupid
decisions. Perfect. Now, bring that into
the Roman Empire falling all this other
stuff. Okay.
Jamie Dimon is not going to want to
screw up what he's doing.
And his legacy is going to matter to him
because there's no way in the world he's
going to let Sandy Weill be able to say,
"I told you guys that guy failed. He was
a nobody." He's not going to let that
happen.
And he's running the most, you know,
company that every day $7 trillion they
see come in and out. J.P. Morgan Chase,
right?
Um
Apple, Amazon,
Gates, Microsoft,
these guys have assets. Are they going
to let something crazy happen to it? I
don't know. Musk,
who is standing up against the
establishment,
he's not okay with what the
establishment's trying to do.
And with social media, a lot of this
bullshit's being exposed, whether it's
talking about ESG and what BlackRock
and,
you know, they're trying to do or Open
Society Foundation or these DEI scores,
CI scores, which California's famous
for,
they're getting exposed, right? And
people are talking about it. So, social
media is allowing us to hold people
accountable. I don't know if you saw
what just happened right now this week
with Supreme Court
having a discussion to say social media
companies cannot take anything off
their websites.
Whoa.
this week. So, censorship at the highest
level. You don't have the right to take
anything down. People can post whatever
they want. That's crazy if we go in that
direction.
Was that a preliminary decision?
Preliminary. It's not done yet. No, it's
fully preliminary. You got to look into
it. Yes.
So,
You got my attention.
So, so because Supreme Court is now
what? 5-4, right? So, now it's kind of
like they can impose and kind of push
the envelope there.
Okay, and they can protect sanity in
America with some of the ways that
businesses have been bullying people
during COVID.
COVID, what it did do which was great,
it was so awesome in one area. You know
what it was?
What's that quote, you know, absolute
power,
you know, reveals what this person's
driven by, right?
You know, and and Lincoln said if you
want to test someone's character, give
them power and see what they do. Guess
what? During COVID, who did we give
power to? Fauci, CDC, California, New
York, uh governors of some states had a
little too much power. They were like
emperors pretty much, you know? Hey, if
somebody in LA, you see them without
wearing a mask, text this word and we'll
find them at da da da da da da. What are
you talking about? You're paying people
in LA to snitch on other people? It's a
part-time job. What do you do for a
living? I snitch. I make six grand a
month.
Really? Yeah. What an incredible way of
making money.
So,
during COVID, if we're not oblivious and
not naive, we realize what the people of
power really wanted to do.
And we saw that in Europe. Everybody's
walking around with their COVID passport
and they're kind of doing this kind of
stuff.
Um so, to me, it was fantastic to really
see them show their cards.
Oh, this is what you're trying to do to
America. We're not going to let that
happen. What did that do? It got guys
like Rogan to flip. I'm no longer on
your side.
It got guys like Elon Musk, oh, so you
were full of [ __ ] the entire time. I
thought you were trying to do something
good. Got it. I'm not part of your camp.
I'm going to go buy Twitter.
Scott Galloway, this guy's full of [ __ ]
Professor Galloway, there's no way in
the world he's going to buy. He's
bluffing all of you. He's fooling all of
you. There's no way he's going to buy
Twitter.
Elon Musk bought 100% of Twitter.
And now Scott Galloway on Bill Maher
last week
with Andrew Cuomo saying we need to show
some grace. We were wrong during COVID.
We were wrong during COVID. I'm sorry,
Professor Galloway. Did you show grace?
Did you show grace? Oh, now you want
grace, but you never gave everybody
grace. And you're this professor from
New York who's had exits of a couple
companies and you've not taken salary
from UC Berkeley. Respect to you. You
simply go and do the work. I've seen the
money you've given to Berkeley, three
and a half four million dollars. But you
didn't have any grace.
You didn't show people grace. So, what
happened now?
But beautiful. You saw what universities
were doing. Harvard got exposed during
COVID. No more campus. You guys got to
go home. Okay, so does that mean the
annual tuition is still 60,000 or is
discounted to 20,000? No, no, still
60,000. What? For what? You're not
giving me food. You're not giving me
place to stay. You still want me to pay
60,000? Yes, we do. Bingo. You just
showed your true colors. Beautiful. That
was fantastic. Hey, we want you guys to
go and work from home. Really? Yes.
All right. [ __ ] So, I'm living in New
York.
I'm working for XYZ company. They're
paying me 250 grand a year. I can't live
normal life in New York.
I'll go live in Florida. Work from home.
Except now I'm not paying the taxes. Oh,
no, no, no, no, we don't want you to
work from home. Why now? I can work from
home from Florida. No, we want you to
come back to New York now. Got it. So,
you screwed up the policies, but now I'm
in Florida. I'm not coming back to New
York because I actually love Florida.
And I'm stuck here. And people from
California went and worked from home in
Texas and now they're saving 13%. Now
they're not coming back. So, they were
like, oh, people going to come back.
They never came back.
The people never came back. So,
this this empire is falling.
The great equalizer,
Tom,
is social media.
If social media sticks around
and they can't silence people from
sharing their thoughts and opinions. I'm
not talking about people getting up
there and saying, we should go do this.
I'm not talking about that. I'm saying,
hey, what about this? And we start
questioning things.
Then the people of power that revealed
their cards, not everybody, but the
establishment that wants to control more
of the people, they're like, yeah, we're
not we're not doing that, bro. You know,
what do you do if you're playing poker
with somebody, okay?
And you're going for the river,
and you didn't hit, you know, you know,
whatever,
uh uh
pick something. You didn't hit your
three of a kind, okay? You missed
everybody, you got two pair. It's a
jack. You got a jack, you got a jack on
the board.
All of a sudden, you're about to bluff
the guy, maybe go in 50% of what the
chip is, you know, there.
But one card accidentally falls on the
ground and you see it. It's an ace. And
there's an ace on there. What are you
going to do?
What are you going to do?
You already know you lost. So, guess
what?
The establishment revealed their cards,
and we saw it.
And if we don't
realize it and do something with it,
and they still move their agenda, it was
our fault all along.
But if we saw it and we unify, and we
come together and say, "Hey guys, we the
people have the power,
they ain't going to push us around. We
love this country. Let's fight for what
makes this country great.
Let's go and support what this country
was great about. Let's bring it back to
that. Let's be a little bit more
responsible. Let's have better incentive
programs. Let's expect better policies
from them. Let's hold them accountable
to what they say they're going to do.
Now we can go in the better direction.
And we encourage certain people to run
and get involved in politics and
office."
So, I don't think it's going to happen
because I think on one end capitalists,
the rich people, are not going to want
to lose all them all their money.
So, they're eventually going to be like,
"Yeah, I don't support what you're
doing, Soros.
Yeah, I don't support what you're
doing." Yeah, Charlie Munger said
something very interesting.
He says, "Look, I love Larry Fink,
but I don't want him as my emperor."
What a thing to say, Munger. Here's a
guy that's to 94 years old. I don't know
how old he is, but mid-90s. He's saying,
"Hey, I respect Larry Fink, but I don't
want him as an emperor." Cuz they know
what Larry Fink's trying to do. People
are not dummies, right? So,
those types of people, I think, are
going to fight each other enough. And if
we keep our eyes open, this will
continue to be the greatest country in
the world, and hopefully even better if
we rise up to it. If not,
the best days are behind us if we don't
learn our lesson from the last 3 years.
If you like that clip, check out the
full powerful episode here, and I'll see
you there.