Video summary
The podcast features a discussion centered on Lyman Stone's perspective regarding declining fertility and marriage rates in Western nations, particularly America but applicable to Britain as well. Contrary to common narratives that attribute low birth rates solely to expensive housing, contraception availability, or feminist ideology empowering women to be "girl bosses," the speaker argues these are merely distractions from a core issue: people are marrying too late. Stone posits that once individuals marry early in their twenties, they naturally have children; however, modern couples often wait until after thirty, effectively skipping their most fertile years. This delay is described not as a choice driven by lifestyle preferences alone, but as a coordination problem where men fail to signal suitability for fatherhood and husbandry during the critical window of young adulthood. The transcript explains that women seek partners who can provide reliability and resources specifically during difficult moments like pregnancy and nursing, when personal resource acquisition becomes harder. Historically, military service served as a powerful "costly signal" of a man's ability to protect and provide, contributing significantly to post-war baby booms; today, such signals are scarcer due to the decline in military enlistment and the ubiquity of university education which extends adolescence without offering equivalent proof of capability. Furthermore, women who out-earn men in their twenties face a paradox where they may reject partners earning less than them, yet struggle to find older or significantly wealthier mates willing to commit, leading many to conclude that simply "haven't found the right partner" rather than citing career independence as the primary barrier to having children. The conversation highlights how high-performing women often exhibit hypergamous tendencies, desiring partners who are even more successful than themselves, a phenomenon compared to buying a lamp for a perfectly designed house versus one in an empty room. As women build their careers and lives independently by their thirties or forties, they set up their existence around specific preferences—career location, daily schedule, lifestyle choices—which makes finding a compatible spouse much harder because the partner must fit into an already structured life rather than building it together from scratch. This is contrasted with marrying young at institutions like Princeton, where couples are selected for suitability to that environment before either has achieved significant career success, allowing them to develop their lives jointly without the stress of comparing earnings or status early on. The speaker also touches upon broader societal factors influencing these trends, including intergenerational competition theory and lifestyle inflation driven by social media exposure to others' best lives while viewing one's own worst moments online. Despite economic data suggesting that Gen Z is objectively better off than previous generations when adjusted for inflation, young people feel poor and unprepared due to environmental concerns like climate change and the perceived impossibility of achieving their parents' material milestones without significant debt or age gaps in relationships. The discussion notes that while women are often more conscientious students who excel academically before facing "motherhood tax" pressures later in life, this early success can inadvertently raise expectations for partners, making it difficult to settle down unless a man demonstrates exceptional capability well into his thirties or forties. Ultimately, the dialogue suggests that birth rates are falling off a cliff because men lack effective ways to signal their suitability as fathers during the necessary reproductive window of young adulthood, and women consequently delay marriage until they feel ready but often find themselves outside the optimal age for childbearing. The speaker advocates for reconsidering the timing of marriage, suggesting that marrying in a "sweet spot" between twenty and thirty-five offers the best balance against divorce while allowing couples to form their lives together rather than fitting into pre-existing structures. While acknowledging various contributing factors like housing costs and cultural shifts, the core argument remains that without men demonstrating reliability early on through signals like military service or successful entrepreneurship before age forty, modern marriage trends will continue to suppress fertility rates despite women's increasing economic independence.
Read the full video transcript
Have you had a look at this? Have you
thought about what's going on here,
modern marriage trends? Um, can I just
repeat the take of a different modern
wisdom guest, which is Lyman Stone,
because I interviewed him the other day,
and he had a view on this, which I found
so interesting and actually really like
pull together a lot of the things I've
been confused about when looking at
marriage rates and fertility and all the
stuff that I'm writing about.
He doesn't
think that actually
uh he basically thinks the only thing
that is wrong with fertility rates in
the west is I mean he's looking at
America but this applies to Britain as
well is um people getting married late.
He thinks that's the only problem
because actually once people are married
they tend to have kids like you know
it's it's almost like you get married
and you're like well what else are we
going to do right he says that actually
the number of people who are married and
are deliberately not having children
like the dinks they're quite culturally
prominent but they're actually rare
there aren't very many people who do
that most people get married and if they
can they will have some children right
but but when people are getting married
into like I think the average age of
first marriage now is over 30 definitely
and the average age of marriage in
general is quite old because people get
married multiple times account for
disproportionate number of marriages so
they drag it up but um you know in
during the baby boom um the average age
of first marriage was so young it was
like 22 or something really young and
even in the 80s I got married when I was
25 which is basically a child bride in
my peer group in the 80s that was
average, right?
So, people are basically just skipping
the whole of their 20ies during which
they could have been having children
because they're not actually coupling up
until later or they're not coupling up
at all. So, Lyman's take and I think
it's actually a really interesting one.
It's not to do it's not well sorry
people often say it's just to do with
housing. it's just because housing is
expensive or it's just to do with the
availability of contraception or it's
just to do with feminism telling women
that like they're girl bosses and they
don't need to have kids whatever he says
no it's actually just a coordination
problem is actually just that people are
not getting married sufficiently early
so that they then have their whole of
their reproductive lives ahead of them
and can have you know 2.5
kids but that is linked to the other
stuff in the sense that he thinks and I
think this is really persuasive that the
reason people aren't getting married
younger is because men in their 20ies
are not able to for various reasons
signal their suitability as husbands in
a way they they used to. Because what
women are looking for when they're
looking for a husband is someone who
they know is going to be reliable during
moments of difficulty when they have
children. Because when you're pregnant
and when you're nursing and you've got
young children, you simultaneously need
more resources and also have less
ability to get those resources for
yourself. So, you're in a real pickle.
And like the person or people who can
provide that for you like you I mean you
need them. You need some you need
someone and the obvious person is the
father of your children. And that's
that's what monogous marriage is
basically like legally obliging men to
step up during those moments. M um and
so women are looking for a man who will
do that and who will who who is capable
of providing those resources in that
difficult moment. And they look for
signals in men that that they're up to
that, you know, and wealth is one of
them. Um but there are other ways of
showing it as well, like um going to an
elite university, that's pretty good. Um
or uh um running your own business or
military service, that's an interesting
example. about 3% I think compared with
50% in the 1940s. Yeah, that I I asked
Lyman this and he was like yeah he
thought it was true. Is it possible that
part of the reason there was a postwar
baby boom particularly in America is
because so many men had had military
service and had had this opportunity to
demonstrate their suitability as far as
see how reliable I am. I just went to
war. I can raise your child. Exactly.
Yeah. like we don't it is harder now for
young men to to do that costly signal
and to say like it's harder to buy
property depending on where you are but
it is generally harder to buy property
when you're younger. Um the nature of
everyone going to university actually is
kind of well not everyone but when lots
of people go to university it actually
devalues the signal and it also
basically extends your adolescence in
that you don't you can't start your
business buy your property do whatever
until you've graduated and this just
like pushes further and further into
your 20ies. Um yeah military service as
you say much less common. Basically, the
ways that men could
demonstrate their that they are up to
being fathers and husbands have become
scarcer. And it's it's no good if you
start like if you gain those costly
signals in your 50s, right? Because at
that point, like you're outside of the
reproductive window. It has to be really
in your 20s or maybe in your early 30s.
And that is exactly I think what we are
missing right now. And maybe that's
maybe that's the key thing. Maybe that's
why like birth rates are falling off a
cliff. Yeah, I mean there's a lot of
things going on, but certainly
comparatively if you were to roll in
whatever uh a Michael Malcolm Collins is
or a Steven J. Shaw's idea around this
that
as females who seem to be much better at
all types of education, socio
socioeconomic success in the modern
world is pretty much laid at their feet
until they pay the motherhood tax in
their 30s or whatever. They are more
conscientious on average. They're better
at handing in homework. I saw uh Alex
Datesy post something this morning about
how they can do better sort of long-term
planning about when they need to revise
for tests and stuff. like every
different part of education when the
brakes get taken off for women it for
girls it seems to be they're they're
pretty good at it and uh they're they're
flourishing and then I think if you have
that which sets well look this is how
much I can look after me if you at the
very least can't look after me as well
as I can look after me how much faith
can I have in you being able to step up
the bare minimum should be that you can
do what I can do and it seems like you
maybe can't uh and then on top of that I
think the exposure that we have to life
expectations of other people online.
Getting to see the best of everyone's
life while we get to see the worst of
our own creates this lifestyle inflation
expectation, you know, intergenerational
competition theory. Look at where my
parents were when they were my age and
they had this house and they had this
this thing and they had this that. I'm
never going to be able to get this.
Despite when economists do every
different type of analysis that you
[ __ ] can adjusted for inflation, Gen
Z are better off than every other
generation that came before them
economically, they feel like they're
not. And the way that you feel is
reality when it comes to this because
you're not looking at so you're not
doing an economist. You don't have a
spreadsheet to work out what's actually
going on. What you're doing is saying,
"Well, how do I feel about this?" You
go, "I feel poor and unprepared and like
the world is about to burn because it's
filled with carbon." That's what I'm
concerned about.
Yeah. And also young for all of these
reasons you describe about women being
great highlighter girls. Basically,
women earn more than young than men do
in their 20ies. And that's a catastrophe
actually. That's actually a catastrophe
because it's precisely what women do not
want in a partner, someone who earns
less than them. So unless those women
are
then coupling with significantly older
men, which most people don't actually
do. I mean, I think that the average age
gap between couples is only like 2
years. It's not that big. Um, a lot of
women are just going to be like, "Why
would I why would I saddle myself to
some guy who I don't think can actually
be relied upon? I'm just not going to do
that." And the overwhelmingly most
common reason that women give when they
when asked why don't you have children
is not because I'm a girl boss or
because I don't own my house or
whatever. It's actually I can't find the
right man. Just haven't found the right
partner. Yeah. Yeah. That was the GSS
survey. Just haven't found the right
partner. every time that I'm around, you
know, my favorite place to do uh
evolutionary psychology mating research
is the Soho House Pool here in Austin.
So, it's like just replete with
university
educated 60 to 100 grand earning
uh attractive girls and you know there's
all of these cabanas around the outside
of this pool and the music's at a level
where everybody can hear and no one's
really got much going on. It's kind of a
bit boring, but it's it's it's sort of
interesting to talk. And I just sit and
go, "So girl, like who's single and talk
to me like what is it that you're
finding about the girls that you date?"
Invariably, it's they're not mature.
They don't have their life together. And
I'm like, "Okay, so what do you mean
when you say that?" Like, "Talk to me
about what you mean." And sometimes they
can come with, you know, the emotionally
they can't really get on the same level
as me. They don't seem to be prepared to
commit, you know, like the classic kind
of lethario guys, especially if you're
going a little bit more quote unquote
high value. Uh, but a lot of the time
it's a bit more amorphous than that.
It's kind of blobby. I think to myself,
I reckon you out earn most of the guys
that you're trying to date. And say,
okay, so who is it that you're dating at
the moment? You're 26, Lydia. Uh, who is
it that you're dating at the moment? Oh,
my last boyfriend was 35 and the guy
that I'm seeing at the moment's 38. I'm
like, these are big big age gaps. And uh
yeah, uh that that was really surprising
to me. It's one of the reasons why
um do you remember Princeton Princeton
Mom? No. This is this woman who wrote,
this was quite a few years ago now, who
wrote in the Princeton student magazine
or the alum the alumni magazine
maybe advice to women at Princeton,
which is um you will never be around so
many eligible men ever in the rest of
your life. The most important thing you
can do at Princeton is find a husband,
not get your degree. And this used to be
like the old phrase um that women used
to use is uh or everyone used to use was
women would go to university to get
their MRS right and actually there's
quite a lot to be said for it. If you do
go to university, one of the advantages
of just marrying your university
boyfriend, which is what I did, is that
you neither of you have had any career
success yet, right? Like you've been
selected for your suitability for that
institution, but you can't do this like
fine grained stressing about who earns
more, whatever, because no one earns
anything. I see you're just picking
someone at the start of the race as
opposed to the end of it. Yeah. Uh, and
obviously you want to be making a pretty
good bet, but I can see how you could
get into a real problem if you're one of
these Soho House girls, women, sorry, I
should say, who, yeah, has quite a lot
of career success, absolutely does not
want to date down. And you probably, you
also get to that point where you're
like, I've waited this long. I've got to
find the perfect person. Look at how
much effort I've put into myself. Look
at how much sweat and blood and tears
I've crafted. And you know, I
think one of the things that might help
this at least a little bit in terms of
reducing the need for hypergamy because
it does seem like high performing women
desire more hypergamous mates than non-
high performing women. So this is as
women earn and educate themselves more
effectively further up the socioeconomic
ladder, they don't reduce down their
desire for a partner who's better than
them proportionally. they want even more
even as they are in absolute terms more
effective. So you go oh my god like as
you are a rarified you know if you stand
at top your own dominance hierarchy
you're looking above and across one to
like like who is it that's left it's
like again it's LeBron James you know
what I mean it's like every all roads
back lead back to LeBron James but the
comparison I've heard as well which I
like is with um buying a lamp for your
house. So, if you have just bought a
house and there's nothing in it and you
need to buy a bunch of stuff, you need
to buy a lamp, you can be like, "Oh,
yeah, cool. I'll just get whatever lamp
looks sort of nice." If, however, you
have perfectly designed your house like
it is it is every every element of it
has been really carefully thought
through in terms of decor and then you
need to find a lamp that just like
perfectly fits that house, it's going to
be much harder to find a lamp because
you're going to have much more um uh
picky criteria. But you also can't build
the house around a lamp. Indeed.
Right? That is kind of what it's like
when you're looking for a spouse later
in life. You've already kind of set up
your life. You know where you're living.
You know what your career is. You have
really strong preferences. You've
probably kind of structured your daily
schedule around exactly what you like
and whatever. Like all of your life is
designed around you and then you have to
find someone who fits into that. Whereas
if you get married young, you kind of
just develop it together and you end up
your your your lives as a joint thing
are formed around each other. And
obviously that does sometimes go wrong,
but I think that is part of the reason
why there's this age. Basically, if you
get married somewhere in the medium kind
of age range between
like 20 and 35, maybe something like
that, like not too young, not too old,
you're less likely to get divorced. And
I think it probably is something to do
with that. It's that sweet spot in terms
of you're not so young that you make
really stupid decisions, but also you
form your life around your partner, not
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