Uncovering The Futures Blind Spot in Service Design / Lucy Kimbell / Episode #257

Hello, I'm Lucy and this is the Service Design Show episode 257. >> Okay, imagine yourself 10 years from now. You're looking back at the work you're doing today, all the interfaces, services, and systems that you're putting into the world. What do you actually want to be proud of? We're so often stuck in the project to project grind that we rarely stop to ask where we're actually heading. In this episode, we're stepping out of that cycle to look at the messy, strategic uncertainties shaping our practice. Hi, my name is Mark Fontain and this is the Service Design Show where we try to figure out together what it actually takes to design services that work for people, for businesses, and of course, for our planet. Our guest today is Lucy Kimble, a professor of contemporary design practices at Central Saint Martins in London. Lucy's career is fascinating. She almost took a completely different path as an arts administrator before she ended up in academia. I think that might be why she's so good at cutting through the noise. She's able to balance serious, heavy theory with a very human sense of humor and she's obsessed with helping us break out of our design autopilot. In this conversation, we talk about why we have such a blind spot when it comes to the future and why we're so terrible at actually looking ahead. We get into how to spot the weak signals before they become trends and why we need to stop designing ourselves into a corner. I thought that this would be a neat preview of what design in 2035 would look like, But Lucy pushed back on that. As you'll hear, she argues that trying to predict the future is way less valuable than just getting better at dealing with the uncertainties of it. So, whether you're just starting out or leading a design team, this is a great reality check on how to stop reacting and start anticipating. So, let's jump in and make sure to stick around for the end as I'll be back with a few closing thoughts. Welcome to the show, Lucy. >> Thank you. >> Nice to have you on. Exciting times for you, exciting times in the world in general. Um you have been on a very interesting journey, which we'll definitely talk about in a moment, but uh sort of to set the stage, uh I always try to frame these conversations as a puzzle for me and the audience that's listening is an adventure that we're going on and this is going to be an a spicy adventure because I think uh if I read between the lines of your thinking and your notes with me is um your take on design is that design is inherently political. Uh we have a lot more um responsibility than we sometimes might think. Uh we are maybe often too stuck into just delivering the work on a day-to-day basis. And I hope that in this conversation we'll sort of figure out how we can break that spell. Um so if somebody is listening to us right now and they resonate with the idea that a lot of the design work that they're doing is on autopilot. Do you recognize that as well and what would you say to them? >> Um so, I thank you, Mark for the invitation to be with you here today. Um, I would agree that um a lot of us and the us I mean people who are working in uh institutions in the global north with stable environments or possibly in niches or working as freelancers in relation to opportunities um in those institutions. So in my case it's a university and so yeah, I think a lot of us in the university are on autopilot. Um, maybe not the people who are on insecure contracts for example um and certainly not our students who are acquire gathering large debts to to be here and study at university. So um your question was about being on autopilot. That's what I experience in myself amongst others and then with occasional moments of reflexivity and paying attention to the external conditions, not just the uh highly uncertain um and often destructive geopolitics um um the climate change, the habitat destruction and so on. So all those external conditions which most of us don't have a direct um opportunity to impact on but indirectly we're impacting on um and to the extent to which we're aware of those things on a day-to-day basis is where I think the blind spots come in and the paying attention to the here and now um and dealing with our own dilemmas, what's for dinner, what time am I picking up my children from school, etc. Um and and our own familial and friendship obligations um and it's hard to think about all those external fast-moving things. So So yes, we're not we those of us who are in positions of responsibility and power are often not paying attention to the external things. >> Yeah, and uh it's great that you mentioned it already. It's first and foremost, I think, important to have empathy with everybody who's doing this. Uh a lot of obligations, a lot of responsibilities, and just uh trying to get through the day is already a major task for uh most of us. And then again, it's not it's not to blame uh people to be hands-down when they're doing the work and actually doing the work. But, I guess there are consequences of being in that mode of operation. Um What consequences do you see? >> Well, maybe we could before going to the consequences, um what why is this happening? So, um you could say one of the reasons is financialization and quantification that reality is quantified um and a sort of separation between life and world, life and other people. Uh you're the what's important to you and what you have to do as part of your job or just to keep your job or to get a job in the first place to have a stable home and so on. Obviously, there are many many billions of people not living in those circumstances of stability. Um but, for those of us or why why is this happening? Um uh unequal allocation of resources um and the consequences um which was your original question are um um mental health issues from that separation of of life and world and purpose and world and community. Um dealing with the uncertainty, negotiating those um the breakdown that's unfolding uh between um the way humans live on the planet and the disproportionate effects uh on um people of color um global communities in the global south. Uh you know, this is all quite serious stuff. I don't have any massive super super duper perspective on it. I'm just trying to pay attention, um, and and so the consequences are often felt in the body as ill health, um, and stress, and, um, uh, tensions, and so on, and also impact on, I think, people's relations with one another, with their families, with their co-workers, disconnections from community and place, uh, as part of the trying to manage and survive. >> Yeah, so the consequences are quite serious, uh, nevertheless, it seems very hard to escape, uh, this way of being, of working, uh, for a lot of people. I want to hear your take on that as well, but you mentioned as one of the underlying principles, uh, you mentioned, uh, unequal allocation of resources, but you also mentioned quantization. Could you unpack that a little bit for us? >> Yeah. Yeah, so financialization and quantification, so the idea that, you know, through these digital communication networks are, um, we, um, those of us who use them and rely on them, and allow our our data to be, uh, captured and tracked, um, we our reality is being captured and quantified and analyzed, um, in real time, um, and on the one hand, oh, here, have this, here, look at this, here's this lovely thing for you to look at, or might be of interest to you, and so on. This is a seduction of, um, entertainment, and, um, affect, and, um, and, um, distraction, um, but on the other hand, there's these, um, the uh, the continued separation of self and from self and world, and from being in the in here and now. So, that's that's really the digitalization I'm talking about, and about the quantification, because those things are happening through digital channels. Um, and then the uh, that's part of a a wider thing, which is, you could call it financialized capital, or speculative uh, capital, or speculative futures, which has been um turned into something that can be, you know, the the the the futures market. So, the the capturing of future experience, the capturing of future value in the present, that the value of a university degree being something to be assessed and quantified, how much will you earn in the future, not how will you think in the future, for example. So, this idea that our beings are quantified, our sense of self and relating to others, our self-worth, our relationships with communities we're part of, these things are quantifiable, and that has become um you know, even more present through digital networked media. >> Am I hearing you correctly that because we are living a bigger part of our lives mediated through let's let's say numbers on a screen rather than experiences in the outside world, um we are losing something? >> Uh yeah, I think it's not just about the screen. It's if you go to a shop, you know, buy your groceries at a supermarket, you might not be looking at a screen there, but you are being tracked. So, it's the surveillance capitalism idea of um superfluous. This that that everything we do, even if it's out in the world, is being tracked and recorded, analyzed um with some kind of value attached to your choices. So, it's not necessarily about you individually looking at a screen, it's about the quantification of your reality and networks that you're part of. >> Definitely happening over here. If I just look around me, and I go to the grocery store, uh like cameras everywhere, filmed everywhere, uh super Yeah, that's I would say that's reality. It's become the normal. I don't even question that anymore. So, how does this link back to us, the world of design? >> Um that is a great question, and what I'm trying to make sense of. Um I I work at Central Saint Martins. So, this is a quite large um art and design uh school, a higher education institution, part of University of the Arts London. In total, the university has about uh 24,000 students, something like that, across our six colleges. Uh with everything from fashion to communications to architecture to graphic communication design to product design to jewelry, costume, etc., etc. You know, all the different disciplines. Um and I uh see all sorts of um experiments, uh our students at the end of year show, for example, and then their various projects trying to make sense of the world they're in and respond to it in some way, often critically, thinking about um ethical perspectives, political perspectives on what is happening, what could be happening, and the consequences. So, that's a good thing, right? The spirit of inquiry is still here in the art school mode. Um but the extent to which we think about the external conditions, what is shaping the moment now, what might be changing, and how all of these experiments connect to change is um a live question. I don't think I've answered your question, Mark. I've just started talking about the art school model of education. Um but I suppose I uh see I learn from seeing what this much younger generation are doing and thinking about, and I um I'm suppose concerned about the extent to which they are able to critically analyze um and go beyond um current assumptions. And and and that's partly the conditions under which they're studying, you know, with the pressure of their student loans, their expectations about what their professional practice or activist practice might be after, where they might be able to live um in these incredibly expensive global cities like London, uh or wherever they're from, uh and their ability to negotiate all of that um with some degree of autonomy. Uh I think these are all um in play at the moment. So, it's a worrying time, um which I look at and am concerned by. >> You have been looking at this uh quite a lot recently because you've been working on a book. Uh by the time that our conversation here is published, the book won't be out yet, but I think we can already share uh the key ideas in the book. Could you tell us a little bit more about um your journey and your exploration into this topic of the future of design? >> Yeah, so huge topic, uh the future of design understood as a professionalized practice, um with a starting point of where uh some aspects of design are in, say, 2025. So, that includes service design, design thinking, human-centered design, sustainable design, systems design, those kind of terms. So, not architecture, not engineering design, not HCI, um uh although there's relationships with all of those those. So, I look at some of the, you know, themes and developments, and this is something I, along with other design academics, I pay a lot of attention to about what is happening and the recent thinking on that. But also then I really try to focus on what might be what might professionalized design look like in say 2035. And the specific scope, so it's that year, 2035, a decade from from now. Uh more or less. Uh and and in the global north. And the global north really just a construct for describing the assemblage where um um particular nation states and globalized capital are concentrated. Um um in the book I have to sort of justify why I'm using that term rather than say global minority, but there is a I am focusing on um global north meaning they are geographically associated with um you know, Eurocentric uh North American, Western. There's all these other terms which are slightly related. Even though I have interviewees from the book in the book, for example, from the Philippines. Um and examples from, for example, Lebanon. Um So, I'm trying to understand what that what might be the external conditions for the thing we call professionalized design. And I map out what I think those conditions are. And the way I do that is by sharing some perspectives from a vast number of futures reports I read and digested. And also 21 interviews. And some workshops. Just also being around and a participant observation in various conferences and so on and so on. So, I I pull all this together and map out here are some things to pay attention to which I argue shape what that professionalized practice in the global north might be like in the mid-2030s. And then I um bring them to life in three future scenarios suggesting what a studio might look like and its practice. So, so three sort of archetypes for how things might play out differently, um which are intended to be plausible, uh but not preferable. I don't make a judgment about which of these is better because in each of these future worlds, um some people are, you know, winners and losers. Some people are excluded and marginalized and other people do well and uh have their uh you know, their assets or their potential supported and reinforced. So, this methodology that I'm referring to is um that I build on, sorry, is is the Oxford Scenarios Methodology, um developed by Rafael Ramirez and colleagues at uh Saïd Business School where um I was based for some years and had access to uh learning about that. And so, it's it's not about trying to set out this is how it should be. It is more this is how it could be. And then um in the final chapter, what might be the implications of these developments be if you are a design leader, if you are a design designer, a design student, if you are a design academic, um or professional, you know, running running a design institution. Like, what what's What do you think the future of design might be and what what the students might be wanting or needing um in this future. So, it's it's a book about futures, trying to bring futures, plural, into view for professionalized design, um constrained, as I've said, by a particular time frame and a particular um sort of geopolitical context, um and and drawing together different insights sides from other people's work, um and there's also quite a lot of uh using of bits of academic research in there as well about, for example, business models or sustainable transitions, uh or political science. So, it's an exploration of futures for professionalized design. Um um it's anticipating what the future conditions might be and um, in a in a quite practical way what any of us who are in that ecosystem, what we might how that might shape our own thinking and decisions that we can make in the present. Um, for example, organizational strategies or decisions to follow this path or that path or prioritize this thing over another thing. >> We are right now uh, frantically looking in the show notes trying to find a link where to buy the book or download the PDF, but it's not there yet. Uh, everybody uh, this was a good teaser for uh, what the book is about. Um, I for one uh, and many uh, people listening with me will be so be curious to hear those scenarios. I don't know uh, if you can already uh, tease them out and can we go over them one by one? Which scenarios have you explored? >> Um, before we get onto the scenarios, um, maybe we could talk about the uncertainties and you know what? I don't have them in front of me either. So, we're relying on my brain. I finished the book 10 days ago uh, the manuscript um, and you know, in the way of writing it will change and develop, you know, in little tweaks here and there before it's published which should be early 2027. Yes, that's right. >> mentioned you prefer to explore the uncertainties instead of or uh, before we dive into the actual scenarios. Uh, first of all, why the word uncertainties? How how did that uh, emerge into the Is it in the title even? I don't know. >> Um, yes, the current title of the book actually, it's changed, is currently Futures for Design uh, Uncertainties, Scenarios, and Implications. Um, >> So, why uncertainties? Yeah. >> Yeah. So, this this comes from a strand of futures thinking um, uh, which pays attention to strategic uncertainties. What what might be shaping what factors might be shaping the the trans transactional or contextual environments. So, the things that an organization can directly have some agency in relation to. That's called the transactional environment where they can transact and influence and do things. And then there's a broader sort of like call let's call it if you visualize it as a circle there's an outer circle which is the contextual environment which stuff that an individual design agency for example or designer or design school or team in an organization, you know, interest rates, how many parts per thousand of carbon are in the environment, things like that, right? So, these are huge who's who's going to win the next uh who's going to win the midterms in America, etc. All these things which are massive and may have an impact but are sort of further away. So, the book the book is focused on things that are more in the middle circle, the things that are uncertain but the organization can to some extent have some agency in relation to. And so, I map out eight of them in the book and and now I'm going to have to remember them all. >> No, no, let let's we don't have to go like again, this is not a lecture. We are not presenting anything. Maybe you can pick one or two that spark your curiosity or your interest the most and then we'll I'll keep the other ones for people to read in the actual book. >> Yeah. All right, why don't I try and do a couple of them. So, there is an order to them because the first one is basically politics which is where we started talking. So, it's not original to say that design is political. What's probably more useful is to suggest in what ways how it might be understood to be political. Um and at the time of us talking now, 2026, um you know, we can already see in the last, say, 5 years uh a real concentration on forms of design that are clearly actively engaging with political topics. Um they include things like um design for transitions or sustainable design that are uh dealing with the ecological crisis, uh more-than-human design which is trying to uh decenter the human as the subject and the beneficiary of designing and and other more holistic approach recognizing uh ecologies in which designing takes place and the consequences, the impacts on worlds. Um another political form of design in the contemporary arena is, for example, um decolonizing design, so recognizing the histories and presents of um um injustice and um uh inequality and destructive consequences of colonization on uh different populations and their and the and and how design is tied to that, for example, through the reproduction of modernity and in particular kinds of thinking um about what is uh ordinary or what is to be expected and and different ways of relating uh between self and world. So, the these are all forms of political design. Uh there's also, you know, accessible design um and so on, design justice. These are all contemporaneous terms where they're um they're practical efforts and theoretical efforts and political efforts to um recalibrate uh or or reconstitute um assumptions that are in design um in in its forms of practice in the early 21st century. So, so those already exist, right? But you could say they're niches, you know, maybe if you go to a big tech firm, you won't find those things, or you might find a niche. And what extent are they dominant? They're certainly very visible in design academia. It's our little bubble which I'm part of, but within big organizations, you know, a financial services provider with a service design team, the extent to which that team is able to explore or or make use of those concepts, any methods that they think might be useful to bring those approaches into view, and so on. All of that is more probably more difficult certainly than in academia. And [snorts] of course there's independent agencies that then do important experiments and and work to to explore and and render visible those kind of approaches. So that's the sort of swirling stuff I see around, and they are political in as much as they are challenging, questioning, challenging the status quo, and trying to think and do otherwise in the context of professional design. And I in a sense in the book say one way one uncertainty is the extent to which those become mainstream. Not any one of them, but more the sense of that that design has this political agency that could become substantially more the case, not just in niches or or in academia or in some individual small studios and so on. That's an uncertainty. And or do these remain niches? So and then if there is a more political design, it could also be that it's tied up with some of the other things we see in the contemporary landscape, so around polarization, um intensification of positions taken, um the fact that terms like right and left no longer really nearly really work in the current arena. You see strange alliances um that you know don't really make sense if you look at things through the political logic of the um mid-20th century. Um so so how polarization plays out in society, which we can see uh or I can see all around um me in the UK um and also when I pay attention to uh news media and geopolitical events. So polarization, fragmentation of institutions, um the possible collapse of um um ordering institutions which um have served some countries and interests well, um but no longer have credibility uh or or may not may be uh just be too destabilized to continue, which has implications for things that are you know I am not at all expert in, but around for example security um and and and have impacts on global finance um so on. So So I'm just sort of listing some of the things that I do try and pay attention to in the book um in the opening sections, which is this polarization, institutional fragmentation, the importance of niches and experimentation, which is there um but actually perhaps that becomes even more important in uh with more um fragmentation um and and then whether there's growing I mean there again you could say there's growing recognition of design and the arts and the humanities as playing incredibly important roles in reconstituting um worlds, how societies could be different and otherwise. Um um uh so doing political work, you could say, to make a difference. Um and design with its materializing and embodying capacities could become even more important than it than it is. So not simply the let's be human-centered, let's look at the person's journey through a service or system, but actually the politics of that. So it could be it be the case that design as a as a competence, as a capacity becomes more visible or or it could just be um in its pockets as it is now. So these are examples of uncertainties where none of us know what that might be like. And then I'm not saying these are the only things to consider, but in that sense, um design uh professionalized design um may uh it what it might look like may not be the same as we uh as as it is generally thought to be in 2025 or so. >> Investigating these um uncertainties I can imagine that like you could have listed a hundred uncertainties, a thousand. Uh some are uh quite visible and tangible already, like you mentioned the different flavors is maybe not the right word, but the political flavors of design or where design is infused by political or ideologies, um those like we can recognize them. I'm curious like were there any weak signals that surprised you or that in your journey you found ooh this is so important but isn't yet on the public forum but definitely should be in the book? >> Uh yes, so you use the term weak signals, which is a word that is often associated with the futures methodologies. So uh yeah, there's some uh signals. I'll give you example of one. Um so, one of the other uh themes is about technology, obviously, um which is related to that um cosmo-political question that the first topic that I just was talking about. Um so, um I I'll give an example something that cropped up through a network I'm part of that focuses on AI and cooperation. And um they shared an example of something called cozy AI. So, this is a network of organizations who are trying to develop AI in a um collaborative and open way, um not really a proprietary and closed way uh for shared benefit. So, uh aligned, as I understand it, with thinking around, say, open source, for example. So, um it's a network that's a network model, um and that's an example of a weak signal that instead of the uh the giant um massively dominant uh few tech firms which are shaping the AI landscape, as far as I understand it, in 2026, which are in the news every day, the news I see, anyway. Um that actually there's other ways of um thinking about AI, and not just in a critical way, oh, we should control it or we should regulate it and here all the dangers, but actually, no, let's try and try and do something with these emerging technologies, and let's do it in a way that's open um and collaborative and shares uh the tools and the opportunities and the models and so on. The extent to which that still exists in 1 year, 5 years, who knows, uh but I think that is an example of a weak signal. >> Okay. So, um eight weak eight uh uncertainties um that could have an influence on uh the design profession uh in 10 years from now. How did you move from those eight uncertainties into just three scenarios because um like the number of combinations uh is probably unlimited. So, could you share a little bit about that process before you dive into the actual scenarios that emerge? >> Yeah. So, uh yeah, so in this Oxford scenarios methodology, which I'm use loosely using, um and then I sort of add some other stuff to it. I I did a version of these uncertainties, I don't know, 2 years ago, 2 and 1/2 maybe. And then I developed some draft scenarios um where different aspects of those uncertainties play out in the three scenarios. Um what's now in the book is a much more structured version of that. That back then, 2 and 1/2 years ago, it was more creative that I'd uh digested a vast number of futures reports and these I'm not calling them trends. I mean, the there are trend Again, there's different terms in these these method of factors uh drivers of change change. Um and try to identify the things I thought were most uncertain, um some of which are not in the final version, you know, different things emerged in the writing because it's a research process. Um and how they were combined then was to try and create stories uh of future worlds where there is differences between um those those uncertainties in those future worlds. Um so, I developed these scenarios and then I worked with six uh graduates from um speak Central Saint Martins UAL um over the course of um I think I had enough money to pay them for 18 days each. So, I gave uh they worked in pairs um and by this stage there were three scenarios. Sometimes you could have four scenarios, sometimes you could have two, it depends on the purpose, but the way the these archetype work worked out it was that there were three. So experimentally having given them these quite short form versions, I worked with these pairs of graduates who I invited to be in a project. So two years ago we worked together over about three months and their brief was to make an installation of a future studio in that world. So they were all working in one of the three worlds and then they basically made a story a story of the studio and its world and then they made an installation and then we had a a day or two, maybe it was two days, yes, where here actually on this floor at Central Saint Martins where we had 60 people come and experience the installations and do a sort of guided tour through them. So actually for your listeners, viewers, you there are short form videos, one each of those and we can provide the link for that because they're on YouTube and using the work of these these graduates and and very early stage version of these scenarios. So they were yeah, a creative generative project to try and make sense of if those thing if it were like that, what might it mean for a professionalized design entity studio, let's call it a studio. They were all in London in the book they're not, they're in three different locations. >> Mhm. >> And and so they did the thing that did one of the things that design is good at is making something you know tangible and and communicable and experience something you can experience and then we had very interesting conversations with the 60 people who came and experienced they had this sort of guided tour, excuse me, with our graduates. So um >> Maybe maybe by now um and thanks for sharing this process um almost sounds uh and I I'm not an expert in any means, but it almost sounds like writing a sci-fi novel thinking about the future. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh I'm a big fan of sci-fi, always have been. Um and that's uh a very important um you could say strand of cultural futuring exploring what futures might be like. Uh but usually what you have in a film or a novel is a future. And with this Oxford scenarios methodology, you're trying to create several futures. So, uh that you're not saying it it is like that. It could be like this, this, or this. And let us now consider those possibilities in the present to clarify, you know, decisions we need to take in the present um for learning, for thinking about, I know, our current strategy, our current plans. How would they play out in those If it was like that, our current plan to do blah blah blah, what would that what would where would that leave us? So, so the the point of the sort of structured scenarios approach is to try and quite mindfully and intentionally do futuring for uh stuff in the present, for impact in the present. Whereas the cultural form, you know, the sci-fi movies and the the you know, the all this wonderful series and uh you know, can be thought-provoking like The Ministry for the Future for by Kim Stanley um Stanley Robinson uh I might have got the name wrong in his really uh absolutely brilliant novel. I'm just reading another one now by um Stephen Markley called The Deluge, which is I just was reading it last night. Uh the bit I was reading was set in 2027. So, yeah, we need we need all these different forms. >> Yeah. >> Um and I suppose that's also one of the other insights I came to and again, there are other people writing about this. I wouldn't say any of this is massively original, but some of it is. Um it the idea of temporality in designing. And service design obviously really does deal with temporality more than for example, say other forms of professional design practice. But the idea is like what what what what's the time frame we're thinking about when we're designing something or thinking about a future system that's going to be delivering something to some people, some beneficiaries, some users, achieving something or other for some customers or an organization. Uh and what are the consequences of uh of that system, that service, those artifacts, those experiences being in the world and over over what time frame do we do that thinking? So, uh there is thinking about temporality in design, but this is a particularly structured way of doing it um for the profession itself, which I don't I found two other examples actually, which I refer to in the book. >> Yeah. Uh usually, like you mentioned, we think if we do scenario planning or thinking about futures, it's usually for the thing that we're working on, the challenge that we're approaching, the the problem that we're addressing. And it's not to reflect upon our own practice, right? And that is like the interesting we're applying the methodology onto ourselves here. >> Uh yes, basically I said I I I yes, so I open the book by saying um um maybe there's a futures blind spot for professionalized design because absolutely design professionals often called in to do something a bit like futuring. Um what might be the future of this health care service be like? What might be the education for this age group look like, etc. And of course, on all those topics there often is futures research going on. Not always, and it depends very much by geography and institutional investment and politics and so on. But often designers are sort of implicitly doing a kind of futuring, you know, something that doesn't yet exist. Our job is to design that thing, so it is an implied future, but it's not often a really systematic futures inquiry. And there have been already in the last decade in particular quite a lot of stronger intersections between futuring or futures and design taking different forms. But overall, I'm basically arguing there's a futures blind spot, which is paying attention to the conditions of the professional capabilities, the professional knowledge, the expertise itself. And given the prominence of design that's grown in the last 20 20 years in particular with design thinking, service design, and the human-centered, etc. The potential goods and the potential damage from that professionalized capacity has has more has more consequences than it might have done 20 years ago because that capacity or that competence is more widespread across many different types of organization and sector. >> And thus we should be more aware of our responsibility, of our influence, of the consequence of the work we do. Instead of being Is naive the the word right word? Uninformed? Yeah. >> Naive would put me in the position of some kind of expert kind of telling people off like, oh, you're being naive. So I would say I'm also on a learning journey as a design academic. I mean, I I did practice for a long time mostly in um, we now would call, say, HCI. Um, actually it was probably called HCI at the time, but I just didn't know because I was in a practitioner bubble. Um, uh, so, uh, I'm I'm also on my own learning journey. Um, I've been a actually not even full-time, but, uh, sort of primary primarily an academic for 20 years. Only only 20 years cuz I did lots of other stuff earlier in my life, like being an artist and, uh, living in different places, etc., etc. So, so, so I feel I'm learning about this stuff, um, and I'm trying to pay attention. Um, and um, there were several points in the development of this book because all books, uh, as as you know, take some time. And, you know, it really started, you know, 3 years ago, yeah, maybe. And then I kept thinking, "Should I do this?" and trying trying out versions of it, talking to different publishers. And then, um, it got clearer, um, yeah, maybe not yet 2 years ago. And then it was like, "No, I'm really clear what it's doing." which, um, and actually how it's played out is slightly different because when you actually do research, things develop in a way you didn't expect because it's research. So, it's, um, it's it's still me trying to make sense of things. Um, I think, you know, we all do that in in our work professionally, different ways in an aca- you know, I I've I feel like as an academic I have some responsibility to make the vast amount of stuff I've read and had access to over 20 years of being an academic. I have a responsibility to translate some of that to others into a format that might be useful. So, that's what I'm trying to do. >> I I [clears throat] hear people screaming in my ears, "Mark, when are we going to actually hear about the scenarios?" Uh, you guys talking about the process is always important and interesting, but talking about the actual content is as well. Uh, and now I'm sort of on a crossroads whether to ask you to uh, share a few of these scenarios or whether to dive into something that you mentioned a moment ago. What made you eventually decide that this was the moment to write the book? So, I'll leave it up to you what which avenue would you like to explore first? >> So, the problem with me outlining the scenarios is they might change in the final version. So, uh and also readers will be able to go watch these short films, you know, which are on YouTube. So, they, you know, these are two, three minutes. So, that will give an overview you know, by clicking away from this. Um >> Don't click away from this. So, yes, so I'm not going to And also I might just get it wrong because I didn't prepare in that way, Mark, for this. So, sorry. Uh Um >> So, okay. Yeah, so let's go back to that moment where you were contemplating on whether or not to turn this into a book. What tipped you over What is it? The scale? What tipped the scale over? >> Three years, yeah. >> Yeah. Like, writing a book is hard. It's a lot of work. >> Yeah, so actual writing started last summer. So, basically it's been nine months part-time, yeah. Um So, one reason is I've seen the um power of futures thinking by having access to some really inspiring and interesting people over the last 10, 20 years including this colleague Rafael Ramirez at Oxford and and and many others, many others. Um So, I've been inspired by the rigor and the depth of doing thinking thinking deeply about futurity um and um finding myself drawn to that. The second reason is that um some of the encounters between designing and futuring which again I observed in different ways and done a little of myself don't seem I thought there was a gap. So one example of that encounter is obviously speculative design or you know doing doing some kind of futures but some some kind of creative practice which takes the future as as um a context to do some designing in and often that work ends up in the galleries and and looks a bit like strange objects or videos and so on and um I have you know paid attention to that and had access to some of those people and those things and I I often don't find it persuasive. There's an initial you know pleasure in the artifact and the quirkiness but the the the depth of thinking about the future scenario that future world is is not communicated or or present perhaps it's there. Um and then there's also a sort of strand of futures and design intersection which is really critical thinking recognizing the consequences the varied consequences which are not always intended of design decisions in in futures. So that it's constituting different kinds of outcomes and recognizing that so with the kind of critical mindset thinking around pluralism and justice and so on. Um and so and then temporality already mentioned recognizing the the sort of varied like what's the time frame that actually we assess or or to what extent do we pay attention to temporality in designing. So all of these these things were there but what I didn't see and I I go to all sorts of conferences pay attention to all sorts of things, plus also have access because I'm working at Central Saint Martins to, you know, all our visitors and all our students and and colleagues. And I just wasn't hearing some of the stuff I hear heard from the futures community. Um so that's what kept me going uh when I checked in and out. I think, "No, no, there's still a reason to do this and I'm still finding it interesting. So I guess I'm just going to trust that." >> So so what's the reason? >> Uh oh, that there was a gap. >> Yeah, okay. >> Yeah, there was a gap um in this this what I what I called the blind spot, that there was something that that hadn't been done in in quite this way. >> So okay, yeah, so um Okay, great. A a curiosity gap. Now the book will be out in a year, we'll be able to read it. Um how do you hope this book will help to close this gap or what or >> Mhm. >> What do you hope to that this book will achieve? What's the ripple effect that you're looking for? >> So that is a great question. Um so the last chapter uh very much addresses the reader uh about how they can bring some of the insights in quite a practical way to their own team, their professional work individually or working together in kind of workshoppy situations. So it's the translation of the material into uh imp- implications um and uh that you can take out, you know, that make actionable. Um so I'm hoping people uh do read it, but I also recognize uh most of us don't read books in a linear way. I certainly don't. Um I'm an academic, so I just now these days I start at the beginning and then I go to the back to see what the references are in the bibliography. Um and then pick up a few things in the middle and then sometimes, you know, start again and read the whole thing. So books is a strange format, you know, um you know, there's maybe maybe I should have done a podcast. >> You can still do it. Nobody's stopping you. >> Yeah yeah, no, but I um I actually think writing and taking time over writing is an example of um paying attention to temporality, to the way um the Western brain has been constituted to work. And of course, they're not all the same. Uh Neuro-diverse people may not uh depending on the the the neuro-diversity, uh may find different kinds of concentration in different ways better. Um so uh but I I um I take seriously the work of research and translating translating things into a form for others to uh engage with. So, writing is one I think a profound form, and books are a profound form for that. So, uh that was why I kept going. Um the gap Your question was about the gaps, how to make it useful. So, is that people go away thinking, "Oh, I I haven't thought enough about those things. What might be the business model uh that we are basing our future abrupt teams work on in 5 years, in 10 years? What might be the kind of uh if if the world is political uh more political uh and these polarization issues, for example, play out in a particular way, what might that mean for how we choose as a team projects to work on, for projects that we don't want to work on, um and where we position ourselves um uh as being responsible or having agency within our professional work? Um Um so, these kinds of topics. Um and what might it mean for what knowledge is, you know, what's the kind of knowledge that is needed, and where might I get that knowledge, uh and continue to develop as a practitioner, you know, beyond being a student? Um To what extent does design work need to be regulated? Um so, all of these topics, these are some of the uncertainties. So, that the So, that the person comes away thinking, "Oh, I need to think about these things." Uh uh The book is not didactic in the sense of saying, "Here is Here Here is the answer." It's more It's uncertainties. It could be like this or it could be like that. Could be like this, it could be like that. So that um people give some consideration to these topics um and then can individually or in their team, their organization, bring that thinking into their their prioritization, their strategies, their professional practice. >> So if we look back to the start of our conversation, we mentioned that uh the work that we're doing as design professionals very much is heads down at the moment. You're inviting us to look from left to right, up and down, uh behind us maybe even. >> And around. >> Around. Yeah. If we start to train one skill, one muscle today, tomorrow to get better at this um futures scenarios-oriented way of uh practicing design, what would you encourage us to to to practice to to develop? >> Um yeah, so there's a term called futures literacy uh developed by Riel Miller um and and others. And then there's [clears throat] critical thinking about is it to Is it got a load of assumptions in that? But the idea of uh paying attention to uncertainty um in the future, uh paying attention to how the future is constructed, um what assumptions you might be making about the future yourself that uh are your own blind spots um about not just a particular project and its its cycle time time horizon, but your professional practice and its time horizon, your team and their time horizons. So making all of these more conscious, uh having an you know, an anticipatory mindset um to be aware of the future and its uncertainties. That would be uh an outcome that I would recommend uh for um Well, I can't say everyone, that's a bit too globalizing, but for myself and others to to think through uh with a broader time horizon. >> I would love to hear uh more about that and how to help to bring order to chaos. Like it it seems so overwhelming. It feels so overwhelming. There are so many uncertainties about everything and how do we actually make that into a a workable model, something that is actually helping us on a day-to-day basis, strive, helping us strive to a world view that we actually want to contribute to and not just extend the world views that are implicitly in place already. Yeah. All right. We're heading towards almost the end of our conversation, Lucy. Um I'm very curious if people want to learn more about the book, about your work. I can imagine that some people will be um eager to take these eight uncertainties and put them in a blender and come up with their own scenarios. Are there ways we can already engage with this material or what would you advise? >> So this is where I'm not very snappy as a self-promoter. Apologies. Um I am uh planning to share some of the material um um in a Substack and to have some workshop events just to, uh, share some of it and get people thinking. I have done a couple of keynotes where I use some of the material and sort of tried it out. Um, but I don't have, uh, all that snappy stuff just now and I have massively withdrawn from social media as many people have, um, over the last few years. So, um, uh, maybe maybe wait this is where I don't even Yeah, I can't say look at Twitter. I'm not on Twitter anymore. >> Good for you. >> So, um, I suppose I'm so the, I mean I for the foreseeable future, uh, I anticipate working at Central Saint Martins. So, that's my sort of home uh, institutional webpage. Uh, my own, uh, lucykimble.com domain is more from when I was an artist in a former life. Um, and, um, it's from such a time when, um, screen resolution was much smaller and I did look at it recently to show someone and the images were so low res and looked absolutely terrible. So, I am going to have to update that. So, I'm not giving a I'm giving a long rambling answer of I think I set up a Substack uh, with my I can't remember my name, but, um, I am certainly on LinkedIn and, um, um, reluctantly post there because of this social mediaization and the endless performativity that we're expected to do. Um, but certainly my institutional page and by the time, um, in a in a few months as the book is entering production, I will probably start running some online workshops, um, just to share some of the material. So, I would say, uh, follow me on LinkedIn uh, would be a start. Um, uh, connect with me on LinkedIn. Um, have a look at my University of the Arts, uh, uh webpage and then I'm pretty sure I set up a Substack. Um I can't remember what the name of it was. >> make sure to link everything in the in the show notes that is relevant. Uh when the time comes, uh I'll definitely uh be able to share that the book is uh up for grabs. And uh uh this is also already an invitation to to join us in the Circle community. Uh maybe talk uh there about the work so uh in a more engaging form. Um good for you that you're not on social media. You're not trapped in uh in that space. Um and we'll uh look up that Substack. Lucy, um on this podcast, we try to leave with a better questions than we started with. Um what's something that you'd like us to chew upon, think about uh after this episode? Um think about what from your professional work or activism that the competency you have as a designer, as a design professional, what do you want to be still proud of in 10 years? >> Sounds like a important question to reflect upon, not once, but on an ongoing journey. Um thank you for sharing. Thank you for sort of for lifting the curtain upon what you're working on, for for flipping the methodology onto ourselves. Uh we should do that uh more often for sure. I'm looking forward to hearing more about uh the book, the uncertainties, how we can bring that into our own practice. Uh and of course, everybody is curious what uh design will look like in 2035. One thing I know for sure, it's not going to look as we think it will. Uh so thanks for coming on, sort of scratching uh that that curiosity edge, and uh for doing the work that you're doing. >> Uh thank you very much for the opportunity. And then and then sorry for rambling answers. Uh >> You're [laughter] you're This is the place where we ramble and explore together. So no worries about that. Once again, Lucy, thanks for being on. >> Thank you. >> I'm really grateful to Lucy for this one. The thing that kept nagging me after we finished recording is how often we design futures for our clients, but we almost never apply that same rigor to our own careers. Hope you agree that that's a massive blind spot. As Lucy said, we can't afford to be naive about the systems we work within. So, take that question with you. What do you want to still be proud of 10 years from now? If you've enjoyed today's conversation, you can do me one big favor. Please click that like button on this video and most of all leave a short comment if you haven't done so already. Not the video algorithms, but to let me know whether or not we are on the right track by addressing topics like this. Finally, before we part ways, please take a moment to reflect and celebrate that by joining us today, you've directed your attention towards learning and growing as a professional. So, from everyone who you are going to impact through your work, thank you for taking the time and making the commitment. My name is Marc Fonteijn and I look forward to having you with us again for a new conversation on the Service Design Show. Take care and see you soon.