Ukrainian massive attacks on Russian ships: 172 vessels struck in Black and Azov Seas in 12 days
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Ukraine has significantly escalated its maritime operations by launching precise drone strikes against merchant vessels linked to Russia in the Black and Azov Seas, marking a major turning point in the conflict. This campaign, known internally as "Molochga," resulted in an unprecedented 172 Russian-linked ships being struck within just 12 days, a stark increase from previous occasional attacks on shadow vessels or oil facilities elsewhere. The intensity of these assaults forced Russia to redeploy hundreds of drone teams specifically for fleet protection and begin equipping tankers with counter-drone technology, effectively turning the defense of commercial shipping into a critical priority amidst a rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis.
The conflict has now expanded beyond targeting only Russian assets to create a dangerous environment where civilian vessels face accidental or intentional risks from both sides. While Ukrainian strikes are highly precise, the mere existence of this drone battle means that neutral ships operating in the region could become targets due to operational errors or retaliatory measures by Russia, which has already demonstrated its willingness to attack merchant shipping regardless of casualties, such as a missile strike near Odessa that killed ten sailors. As Moscow catches up with Ukraine in drone production and capabilities, it is increasingly capable of targeting civilian vessels, a reality evidenced by recent Russian drone attacks on cargo ships belonging to Germany and Lebanon earlier this month.
In response to these threats, ship owners are beginning to install anti-drone technologies on their vessels, but experts warn that this only shifts the financial burden to consumers while potentially sparking a maritime arms race. If nations like Russia continue to view civilian shipping as legitimate targets, they will likely develop methods to circumvent defensive systems, leading to a cycle of escalating technological countermeasures. This situation poses a severe challenge to the global consensus established in 1982 under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which designates most merchant vessels as non-legitimate targets; without adherence to this framework, the oceans risk descending into chaos and anarchy where safe global shipping becomes impossible.
A recent development adds another layer of complexity to this volatile situation, as there have been no Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil tankers in August despite ongoing hostilities. This pause is not due to a cessation of the drone war but rather a directive from the US administration urging Ukraine to suspend these specific strikes to stabilize the broader situation. Although discussions between Washington and Kyiv regarding this suspension reportedly did not explicitly reference the UN Convention, likely because the United States is not a party to the treaty, the underlying message remains clear: without strict adherence to international maritime law, the safety of global commerce is at grave risk. The conclusion drawn by analysts is that maintaining the rule of law in the seas is essential to prevent a descent into anarchy where even neutral shipping lanes become battlegrounds.
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Ukraine is gaining momentum in the
maritime sphere, launching drone strikes
against merchant vessels linked to
Russia. Thanks to technological advances
that give drones exceptional precision
over long distances, the Ukrainian
attacks marked a turning point, causing
significant damage to Russia, which it
is now trying to avoid by strengthening
the protection of its merchant vessels,
Politico reports. However, these new
attacks also usher in a geopolitical
crisis in which merchant ships in
general face the risk of drone attacks.
This, in turn, could spark a maritime
arms race. In early July, a dramatic
chain of events began. Ukrainian drones
began striking merchant vessels linked
to Russia in the Black and Azov Seas
almost daily. Previously, they had
occasionally struck shadow vessels in
the Mediterranean or Russian oil
facilities and terminals, but this
campaign was different. Several vessels
were hit daily, the article recalled.
This culminated in a staggering 172
vessels struck in the Black and Azov
Seas in just 12 days. Meanwhile, Ukraine
reported attacks on 15 Russian shadow
vessels, namely seven tankers and five
bulk carriers, in just one night.
Politico notes that the Ukrainian Armed
Forces campaign against Russian-linked
vessels, dubbed Molochga, a Ukrainian
acronym that stands for Moscow will fall
because of Crimea, was a rude awakening
for Russia, which was forced to redeploy
drone units from other missions to
protect its merchant fleet. According to
Robert Brovdy, commander of Ukraine's
unmanned systems forces, Moscow has
deployed up to 200 drone teams to
perform vessel protection missions. It
has also begun equipping oil tankers
with counter-drone technology. However,
some vessels unrelated to either Russia
or Ukraine are also caught in the middle
of this drone battle. Of course,
Ukrainian drone attacks are extremely
precise, meaning the risk of a drone
intended to hit one vessel accidentally
hitting another is minimal.
Nevertheless, tankers and other vessels
are now operating in a world where they
could accidentally become drone targets,
not only because of a possible Ukrainian
mistake, but also because of the risk
that Russia might decide to use drones
against merchant shipping to harm
Ukraine and its western allies, Politico
warns. Moscow has already demonstrated
that it has no compunctions about
attacks on merchant ships, even if they
result in loss of life. In July, our
Russian missile strike on a cargo ship
near the port of Odessa killed 10
sailors. Furthermore, Russia is catching
up with Ukraine in drone technology and
production. While it hasn't yet reached
Ukraine's level, it is now capable of
attacking a wide range of targets, which
will undoubtedly include civilian
vessels. In fact, this is already
happening. Earlier this month, Russian
drones struck two cargo ships in the
Black Sea. One belonged to Germany, the
other to Lebanon, the article noted. It
is therefore not surprising that some
ship owners are already installing
anti-drone technologies on their
vessels. But this isn't the end of the
story. If civilian vessels become common
targets during wars and near wars, their
owners will be forced to invest in
defensive technologies, and these costs
will ultimately fall on consumers. In
the next stage, if countries like Russia
want to continue attacking civilian
vessels, they will employ technologies
that circumvent such defenses, the
publication predicts. Therefore, it is
crucial for countries committed to the
rule of law to constantly remind
themselves that most merchant vessels
are never legitimate targets. This
global consensus was reached in 1982,
when almost all but a few countries
ratified the United Nations Convention
on the Law of the Sea. Therefore, if
this convention were to lapse, the
oceans would once again descend into
chaos and even anarchy. Oh, and another
twist. So far in August, there haven't
been any Ukrainian drone attacks on
Russian-linked oil tankers. That's not
because the drone war has stopped,
unfortunately. It's because the US
administration asked Ukraine to suspend
the attacks, not out of concern for
maritime order, but because it's trying
to stabilize the situation. UNCLOS
apparently wasn't mentioned during
US-Kyiv talks, perhaps because America
isn't a party to the treaty. But without
UNCLOS, there can be no safe global
shipping, Politico concluded.