Ukrainian forces have thwarted Russia's plans to encircle the "belt of fortresses" in Donbas

Recent reports from analysts at the Institute for the Study of War indicate that Ukrainian defense forces have successfully disrupted Russian military plans to encircle the fortified defensive belt in the Donetsk region. Despite Moscow's assertions of inevitable victory, Ukrainian troops are demonstrating significant success at both strategic and operational levels. A key achievement was the elimination of a Russian salient north of Lyman, which directly thwarted attempts by Russian command to widely surround the fortress belt from the Lyman and Dobropillia areas. This defensive resilience has allowed Ukraine to recapture over 745 square kilometers across the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions during the winter and spring of 2026, a figure that does not even account for more recent territorial gains. The momentum on the battlefield suggests that Russian forces will not be able to capture the Donetsk region until at least 2032, assuming they can seize it at all given their current rate of advance. Beyond ground operations, Ukrainian forces have executed successful medium and long-range strike campaigns targeting critical Russian infrastructure, including oil refineries, airfields, markets, and other military installations. These strikes are effectively damaging the Russian economy and diminishing its military potential, causing Russia's overall military efforts to fail in achieving their intended operational and strategic objectives. The disparity in progress is highlighted by data showing that Russian forces advanced approximately 124 square kilometers in August, which represents only about a quarter of the area seized in the same month the previous year. As recruitment numbers in Russia decline and officials prepare for potential forced conscription of reservists following the State Duma elections in September 2026, the Kremlin is increasingly attempting to persuade the United States to force Ukraine into ceding territory it cannot hold. This diplomatic pressure aims to compensate for battlefield failures, as handing over the Donetsk region would allow Russia to resume aggression from a much more advantageous position at its choosing. However, this strategy contradicts the stated long-term goals of President Putin and other Kremlin officials, who maintain that their objective remains the control of all of Ukraine, not just its southern and eastern regions. The situation on the ground remains tense as Russian troops continue their slow advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, cities that form part of Ukraine's so-called belt of fortresses alongside Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka. Kramatorsk, a vital logistical hub for the Ukrainian military, is facing intensified attacks, with press secretary Iryna Rybakova reporting dozens of strikes daily against the city. The streets are nearly deserted during morning and evening hours, and residents must move cautiously throughout the day due to the constant threat of drone strikes. These ongoing assaults highlight the severe challenges faced by civilians and defenders alike as they strive to maintain their defensive positions against a determined but increasingly strained Russian offensive.