Video summary
The video discusses a provocative theory regarding potential future conflicts involving the United States, specifically focusing on the idea that America might attempt to colonize or invade nations like Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela. The speaker argues that this scenario could stem from a demographic crisis where millions of young men are unable to find mates due to shifting social dynamics, leading to increased violent tendencies within the population. To mitigate this internal instability, the argument suggests that historical powers have often resolved such issues by sending excess populations to war or establishing new colonies abroad. Consequently, the speaker posits that if the United States remains internally divided, external expansion is unlikely, but a unified "MAGA red wave" could significantly increase the probability of such aggressive territorial ambitions becoming reality.
The discussion contrasts these potential American actions with the likelihood of China taking over Taiwan, with the speaker expressing a strong belief that the US invasion of North American neighbors is more probable than Chinese conquest of Taiwan. This perspective is supported by anecdotal evidence from the speaker's time in Taiwan in 2003, where they observed that while there are security concerns, many Taiwanese citizens see economic growth in China and might prefer integration over conflict. The speaker emphasizes that dismissing these geopolitical shifts as mere rhetoric is a mistake, noting that direct conversations between President Trump and Canadian leaders about border treaties and oil resources indicate that war planning for Greenland and Venezuela is already underway, even if it does not guarantee immediate conquest.
To provide historical context for such internal strife and external expansion, the speaker points to deep-seated divisions within American history, citing immigration tensions and the Civil War as precedents for how the nation has handled profound societal fractures. The argument suggests that while current fears about these events might seem exaggerated to those who have never experienced such turmoil, there are historical patterns showing that societies can recover from extreme internal conflicts. The speaker maintains a sense of proportionality, asserting that while the situation is serious, it is not necessarily as catastrophic as some predict because the United States has navigated similar crises before. Ultimately, the core message is that the future trajectory of US foreign policy depends heavily on the outcome of the 2028 election and whether the country remains fractured or becomes more politically unified under a specific ideology.
Read the full video transcript
Do you reckon there's going to be
internal strife for the next 10 years?
>> Right. So, um back to the young men
problem. So, right now there's a very
popular phrase called hypergamy. Uh I'm
not sure if if you know the what
hypergamy
>> hypergamy means.
>> You know what it means.
>> But are you looking at me as hypergamy?
He's saying that's because I'm a
high-value male.
>> That's right. That's right. Yes.
>> Yeah. So, so the problem is that
majority of men young men are not able
to find a suitable mate. Uh because one
way to reduce um
men young men's [clears throat] like
violent tendencies is to get married,
have children, and then they become
productive members of society. But if
like, you know, the majority of young
men cannot get married, then what's the
solution? Well, you send them off to
war, right?
So, um there are two possibilities ahead
for the United States. Um
how do you deal with these millions of
young men who cannot get laid,
basically? Well, you send them off send
them off to war to die. If you did that,
if you had conscription, it's possible
they they would just rather fight you,
okay? So, another solution is to
colonize
uh North and South America to turn the
entire Western Hemisphere into a US
colony. And they do not already with
Venezuela. They'll probably do that with
Canada. They talk talk about Greenland.
Uh
>> Do you think that realistically America
would try and colonize Canada,
Greenland, and Venezuela? Not just uh
we're going to take a couple of leaders
here and
have soft power. They would actually try
to
>> Yes, I do because there's no one to stop
the United States from doing this.
What Why wouldn't the United States just
take Alberta? What's stopping the United
States from just taking Alberta? And and
the part of the war is that not like
Canada has what army again? Yeah. Yeah.
The reason he's saying Alberta is that's
where the oil is. So, one of the things
So, this is this is something I was
So, with my classes at the University of
Chicago, so not for the reason of the
exact dynamic. I won't quite go that
far.
>> [snorts]
>> But what I um so having studied violent
populism,
I
watched over 200 of President Trump's
speeches as he was running for president
200 all the way through. I went to four
of his rallies, which didn't mean you
just go to his rallies and listen to a
Trump rally. That means you get there at
8:00 a.m. You're already 3 hours late
because you can and you can still barely
see the stage by the way and you have to
wait 10 hours and you can't move. If you
move, you lose your place in line and
you're all the way at the back. So
that's why those hundreds of people are
dropping over there. So what do you do?
I surveyed them. I talked to them. I
actually literally that's what a survey
is. And so I learned a lot about what
was underneath the support for Trump. I
also went to Harris rallies and
it was easier to get there. You get at
3:30, you still get a seat. So it's a
little different there. So but
nonetheless
nonetheless, what he is describing here,
you could see a lot of in some of what
President Trump was saying, he was
planting some seeds.
>> But come on, he's bombastic. This guy
gregarious, talky-talky. Like isn't this
a cool talk? He's realistic and he's
going to go to China. Like
>> Hold it. That was all fine Chris until
after the election. It wasn't just
talky-talky. It got seriously serious.
Okay. So so I'm not telling you I'm not
telling you I immediately jumped to the
conclusion and oh, that would be a 99%
likelihood of happening. I work in
percentages.
>> Okay, what do you think's the percentage
likelihood that Greenland or Canada or
Venezuela
uh uh
brought into the American
uh remit?
>> I I think it turns hugely on what
happens with this election in 2028. So
if we are internally divided as I think
there's likely to be. I think this
external expansion is likely to go down.
However, if it turns out that this is
not just we're not internally divided,
but we see the MAGA red wave get
stronger and stronger and stronger,
there's a very good chance that what um
Zhang is talking about will come to be
uh because these are This is what I mean
by it's up to us, Chris.
>> This is wild. I did not think that I was
going to find out that we were maybe
going to invade Canada and Greenland and
Venezuela.
>> Why not?
>> I just it seems so it so
absurd and and and and this would be
it would be invasion.
>> I'd agree with you. Well, I'm not I'm
not Again, the probabilities here So,
let's be clear. I'm not saying this is
70% likely. So, I deal in the world of
probabilities. But if we're talking
about where there is a world where this
is even a 20% probability, this changes
everything. The idea then, if it's even
20% likely, and notice what's happening
with Carney. Notice what's happening
with the leaders. I don't think Carney
believes it's 80% likely, but if you
watch his speech listen to his speech in
Munich this year, he certainly thinks
this is there's something on the
horizon, and President Trump has been
talking directly to him about moving the
border with Canada and the treaty and
abandoning the 1908 treaty with Canada.
This has been a direct conversation with
the prime ministers of Canada in the
last year and a half. This is I don't
say it means it's it's a certainty,
Chris. That's going too far, but to
ignore that this is then translating
into taking uh Venezuela's oil,
uh serious uh war planning now for uh
Greenland. The war planning doesn't
equal conquest, Chris, but I think we're
making a mistake to just simply dismiss
it as oh, this is just talk on the side.
>> I I I wasn't dismissing it. I didn't
even know that it was an option on the
table. What do you think is more likely?
China into Taiwan or the US into one of
Canada, Greenland, Venezuela?
>> Oh, I vote for the the latter with the
US. So, I think that
>> 100%.
>> No way.
>> Yeah.
>> All of this talk all of this talk that
people are
processors the microchip all of the the
China into Taiwan and the
>> So, I've been arguing for decades
>> more likely that we're going to go into
Canada, Venezuela, or Greenland.
>> plays its cards right, Taiwan is going
to fall right into China's lap. I've
been So, President Chen brought me to
Taiwan in January 2003.
I was one of five air power experts.
This was the president of Taiwan, okay?
For a two-day conference with the
president of Taiwan. He wanted the
answer to the question. This is January
2003.
What should Taiwan do if China
preemptively attacks Taiwan while the
United States is preemptively attacking
Iraq? So, remember, we had this thing
called the Iraq war.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Well, for Taiwan, that was a very scary
situation. So, for two days, I was with
the president and also with the top of
the Air Force and we were discussing the
no-kidding discussions here.
And I also got windows into their
national security and I got the polls,
that is the internal polls, which there
was nothing classified inside no NDAs,
so I'm not revealing anything that I'm
not supposed to be. But, I'm telling you
that one of the absolute issues here
with Taiwan is there's a large part of
the population that sees growth over
there.
>> Mhm. [laughter]
>> And they're happy to get some real
called Taipei 101. So, there's a whole
lot underneath this, Chris. Doesn't mean
Taiwan is certain to
uh you know, sort of go in China's way,
but what I've been arguing for some time
is that if China just continues to grow,
then what's going to happen is
it will eventually dwarf Taiwan even
more than it does today and a lot of
folks in Taiwan are going to want to
make money in China.
>> Uh You already talked about that. What I
want to do is not deny any of these
things. Put them in perspective. Take a
look [clears throat] at a community like
the United States, which is a community,
common values, so on and so forth.
Has there ever been deep divisions?
How did we handle them?
So, when we take a look as for example
immigration. Right from the beginning of
the founding there's a dread of
migrants.
The Scotch-Irish that came here
were marginalized profoundly and so on
and so forth. Okay?
Along with these evolutions of
uh immigration and so on and so forth,
which we would build on, we needed.
Okay? There's also tension within those
between those who wanted it and didn't
want it.
The businessmen wanted cheap labor.
The others didn't want it. The workers
didn't want it. Okay?
So,
we have to enter these from my point of
view, and I agree with you absolutely on
what's coming.
I simply have a different sense of
proportionality.
That it's not as profoundly serious as
we who have never experienced it before
would want to make it be.
There's precedent for it. There's a
manner in which the Americans have
historically gone through this. My
pointing to the Civil War was simply to
point to most extreme
situation that even that we recovered
from.
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