Trump makes insane threat to Iranian negotiators and re-activates the US military, ending the talks

Good morning everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Billy Show live. We are here. It was a wild weekend. Uh I was telling the boys if we had gone live on Saturday it would have been a different show than Sunday. Is now a different show than Monday. Everything in Iran has been up in the air. It has been absolute madness. The Iranian negotiations first fell apart after Trump threatened Iran and their negotiators, which was wild. Um Israel refuses to leave Lebanon. that continues to be a big sticking point. But then somehow it all got put back together like Humpty Dumpty and major progress was supposedly made. At least that's the claim from JD Vance. Be talking more about that. Europe is pushing harder into madness as Kira Stararma officially resigns, but he's likely to be replaced by somebody who's even farther left. That's going to be fun. But then South America swinging all the way to the right. That right wave just continues to sweep all across the continent. You've got Colombia now has elected a new president and he's promising to go full B Kelly. Ro Kana plays a round of am I evil or just dumb and gets hardcore ratioed by David Freeberg. That was fun to watch. Xihinping has made it sort of illegal to criticize the Chinese government. We'll be getting into the details. But by the way, it applies even if you live in a different country. So, I guess China is officially off the table for me. And Cuba's president publicly admits that communism doesn't work. So, that's cool. Very happy to hear it, though. Our politicians refuse to give up. All right. Shout out to Kelshi, who is becoming one of my favorite companies. You guys, I love you so much. Thank you for all the support. It is incredible. There's a QR code on your screen. You can use code impact for $10 to trade on kowshi.com. Or if you're like me, you use it to find out what does the world think? Where are people actually willing to put their money? That's what I want to know. Uh how people are actually perceiving where things are going. Because boys and girls, as the Chinese, I like to think of it as a threat as it goes. May you live in interesting times. And boy oh boy, we all live in interesting times. This weekend was a wild roller coaster for me. If you guys were watching it, Trump went full unhinged mode as the Iranian talks really started to stall out. I presume he was trying to absolutely batter them to get them back to the table. He put his position in language that would be literally impossible to understand. This is a paraphrase, but damn is it close to an exact quote. Close the straight and you won't even make it back to your [ __ ] country. So yeah, pretty pretty clear. And by the way, that was in nested inside of a longer sort of more threatening tone. It was really crazy. Hence the title of today's episode, crazy even for Trump. That one was wild. Uh, as you can imagine, I don't think Trump would be dumb enough to actually kill negotiators. At least I like to hope. That would be truly barbaric and completely kill America's credibility in any way, shape, or form going forward to actually have a conversation with anybody because now you're in like Putin uh territory with Zinsky where he's like, I'm not going to Russia. You're out of your mind. Like I'll meet you in Switzerland maybe. Uh but if the US were, thankfully they didn't, but if they were to show we can touch you anywhere, anytime. Uh you can forget negotiating anything into the future. So that was pretty crazy. I was holding my breath a bit to see how things would actually play out. Now, thankfully, things did not play out horribly, even though the Iranians originally said the talks were dead, that they weren't even going to come back. There was all kinds of stuff on social media saying, "Oh, look how JD Vance has been humiliated by the Iranian delegation. The Qataris snubbed him." Uh, and Iran said, "We're not coming back until Trump apologizes and Israel leaves Lebanon." So, at one point, I think it was early Sunday morning, I thought, well, those talks are done. I can expect gas prices to skyrocket back up on Monday. But somehow someway, it all got pulled back together. Uh, so a reminder to all of us that the internet is not a real place. People tend to talk in a spicy, crazy way on the internet that they would not do in real life. And we should all be very, very glad about that. So, it's cool. You get the unhinged take on where people at, what's their emotional temperature. Uh but watch what they do if you want to actually see where the rubber meets the road. And thankfully the rubber was them sitting down actually having a conversation uh and putting some more clarity around theou which I still think is um bad. I think it's going to fall apart. Uh but let us plant a flag as to where we are right now today. According to JD Vance uh great progress was made. The straight is open. a deconliction team has been put together. Now, what is that? They know that there are going to be skirmishes. I will give the Trump administration, they are very realistic about how these things uh play out. They have many times referred to ceasefires as where there is simply less shooting. Uh I think that that's probably the most accurate take. So, they know these skirmishes are going to pop off every now and then, and what they want to do is connect everyone so they can deescalate the situations as they arise. Iran apparently agreed also to allow nuclear inspectors back into their country. Uh I will however remind everybody that they had nuclear inspectors before. So as a part of the JCPOA, nuclear inspectors were going in. Now the Trump administration has said a gazillion times, yeah, but that was a bad deal and Iran was still just doing their thing and um spinning up the centrifuges and pushing way beyond what is necessary for civilian use. But what I will say is, well, if the inspectors did not work then, I'm not sure what makes us think that we're going to work now. And so either I got what I was going to get in terms of change when you bomb the life out of their facilities, but I should still expect them to move forward and ignore all of that. Um, or you're going to have to explain to me why things are going to be different this time. Uh, and I'm sure he's going to say something along the lines of, "They know that we'll go in and bomb things." That's a pretty fragile piece. Uh, and obviously gives them all the incentive in the world to just hide things better. So, uh, I remain incredibly skeptical about this, but nonetheless, that is one of the things that they're putting forward as being a big win. I will say if things are this fragile at this point, when we're what, a handful of days into the 60-day extension, I still fully expect everything to fall apart as negotiations move forward. So, brace yourself for that one. Lebanon basically at this point is a whole game. So, do I expect Hezbollah and Israel to not shoot each other? No, I do not. So, uh, as I said last week, I think that in Iran's pocket is a trump card that they will play whenever they feel like it. They've already played it once, and that is we're backing off because Israel struck Lebanon. not mentioning that Hezbollah had killed five of their soldiers in one attack and then several more in a follow-up attack. So, I think that they can always nudge Hezbollah to act a fool. They can point at Israel refusing to le leave Lebanon, which the Bengavir anyway is banging the drum. I haven't heard what Netanyahu is saying, but Ben Gavir is banging the drum. We are not going to give even an inch in uh the territory that we've taken in Lebanon. So this all feels like you've got a clause in theou that says if Israel doesn't get out of Lebanon that this is all void. Israel is saying we're not leaving Lebanon. Nobody has given any indication that Israel is leaving. Uh you've got rhetoric from Trump saying that he doesn't like the way that they're handling it, but he certainly hasn't said don't worry, they're all going to be out. Uh so yeah, we have a 60-day clock that ticks away. Uh, and I think America is bargaining from a point of weakness. It just is what it is, man. It is what it is. And we've got to be able to be honest about that so we can figure out a way forward. Uh, man, this is wild. May you live in interesting times. May you live in interesting times. >> Well, it was a on again offagain uh weekend with these, but going to Koshi for our trade of the week. It seems right now that the sentiment is we'll probably get a deal done before 2027, but the before December numbers are >> how do they how do they define a deal? What is a deal? >> If the US has agreed to, signed or accepted a new Iran US nuclear deal before January >> so a new JCPOA. >> Yes. And I don't think counts. >> No, there's no way. Theou is literally just we're going to talk about some [ __ ] at some point in the future. We'll see how it goes. It is >> the stipulations are imposes verifi ver verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program including limits on uranium enrichment and provides for lifting suspension modification by at least one e US economic sanction. That's very interesting. So it has to be a nuclear specific item or um >> not or is it or or and >> oh and and sorry and >> a sanction. Yeah. >> Um interesting. So yeah we definitely have seen >> the market swing on every Trump tweet. We have seen theou swing. We have seen JD Vance talking. Then Israel talking. Then Beng wants to bomb every Lebanese woman. I don't get that tweet. We could cover that next. >> Thousand uh Lebanese women must weave for every one soldier. It was something like that. It was >> one like it was poetically uh massacred. Um I don't even know how like it was beautifully written that you wanted to commit genocide. Like I don't know how to get there. But anyway, let's start first start with the likelihood of a deal. Theou gave us optimism, the strikes, the threats. >> I've never been optimistic about the >> really. So, it was completely >> It's [ __ ] This This is literally um we're going to word this vaguely. The the game that's actually being played right now is um Iran, I can keep bombing you. I just want to remind you all of that. You've got to give me a story that I can go back to my public and say that I won. And if you don't do that, I'm actually better off bombing you than I am um not. So recognize the situation that you're in. And if you want to push the world's largest military to go back to that, if nothing else, it will do massive economic damage that you guys will have to rebuild from. It will delay you. It will cause problems. There will be more turmoil within your own government, which puts you in a weaker position. But this is this is a Mexican standoff. They both have a gun to each other's head and Iran knows that they can close the straight. Trump knows that he can go back to bombing them. It's catastrophic for both of them, but neither of them will go out without doing damage to the other. Like neither of them is just going to be like, "Yeah, okay." Ah, [ __ ] Like, this didn't go well. You know, I'm going to peace out. They are going to pop off as many parting shots as they can. So, yeah, this is theou. there is so little likelihood that it gets across the finish and of course like if this gets negotiated well and things start turning around I will immediately update my thinking but uh which people are bizarrely afraid to do but that to me no problem but where are we right now this is a total cluster [ __ ] this he had a shot to get on Mount Rushmore and he didn't he didn't make it he he tried to take the game when he shot and he missed it just banked like off the rim hard and it is what it is and now this is about the PR cleanup. That's it. That's the 60-day PR. >> Do you think that's why like they have Vance out there in Switzerland and he's been running his kind of uh PR tour talking to people about the deal and and he's now kind of the >> face of it. >> If you are in the negotiation, you're holding in the back of your head, this could possibly go well. So, this is something I say to my wife all the time. If my wife has beef with somebody, she's got to like attack it head-on right now today. She's got to say the thing that she's feeling immediately right to your face. >> And I'm just like, if you buy yourself some time, an opening may present itself where you can artfully diffuse this situation. If it has to be addressed right now today, because you cannot be in that discomfort, then it's just going to be blunt force trauma. So, they're all going in hoping >> maybe if we drag this out, some kind of opportunity presents itself. I don't know what it's going to be, but it could be something. And so let's see if we can make this happen. >> And I think this really does come down to just a lack of theory of mind. Certainly on behalf of Trump, Trump cannot put himself in the position of what it means when you're willing to accept victory in the afterlife. And so for him, that's like he he's not able to run that calculus. And then on top of that, you've got people who are both backed into corners. Now Trump's corner is less terrifying, but it is like getting impeached, possibly going to prison if it really all breaks bad and the Republicans lose power and Democrats now have like a moral high ground to stand on and be like, "Oh, we never would have done that." And so that could go very, very wrong for him. The Iranians though, they get killed. They get Gaddafi. And so they've got to be very very careful because if the people are if the IRGC fractures enough that militant armed groups inside of Iran, whether the Kurds or actually like people breaking off from the IRGC that have access to weapons, then that ends in a whole lot of death. And so everybody's just like, okay, I'm not in the best position ever. I think the Iranians in are in a stronger position because of what they are willing to tolerate. Whereas the US is like, I can't let inflation get too high. I can't let interest rates get too high. Um the economy has to like keep going. Gas prices can't get too high. So it's like we've got all these sort of superficial things. These guys are like, I just can't get shot by my own people. >> So, but I can starve them. I can uh continue to murder them in the streets. All that. That's perfectly fine. But so it it is two people backed into a corner but different degrees of bad outcomes if they're not able to get the thing. So I think people want to look for that space. They want to see a path forward. They're constantly testing um what marketing works against our own people. So if you think about Trump, remember in the beginning they weren't even clear like oh this is about the nuclear issue. If you remember when we first started covering this, this is after they've blown up Fort and all of a sudden I can feel them ratcheting back up to attack Iran. And I was like, wait, is this about the fact that they killed their own people? What what like what has gotten him riled up? And at first it was like a bunch of things and like over time they realize, oh, the messaging that sticks is the nuclear thing, so just beat that to death. And so now they're acting as if that was always the real thing. But I'm supposed to hold in my head, I completely destroyed their nuclear capabilities with a couple bunker buster bombs. Aren't we the best? To no, no, no. Like we've got to destroy the whole country because these guys were like seconds away from a nuclear weapon. So it's like, well, one of those messages is a lie. So uh now I know that this is all just spin. So, what they're doing is market research, and they're just trying to figure out what can I say and repeat enough that you're going to be uh on my side so I can win at the midterms and then keep another Republican in power in 2028. >> Yeah, you covered it at the top, but you know, JD Vance says that they have made progress on their force talking points, establishing a conversation and a framework. So if ceasefire or something does break down, they have a structure talking about nuclear agreeing to getting the um inspectors in there and things like that. So it seems that what they're telling us on face value on paper, we're at least making progress going in the right direction. Um is it now just we just have to make sure Israel doesn't bomb Lebanon too hard or do you think Iran is just kind of using that as a scapegoat? >> So dumb. >> Yeah. Like you know what I mean? Like what what do you think will impede this progress now? um with kind of the the approach that JD Vance is taking because he seems very level-headed versus the Trump do what I say now or I'mma buy me to the stone ages. like, "Hey, we're getting together in a room. We're talking about the things that we want. We made progress on these issues." yada yada. >> I have to imagine at some point in the who do I choose as vice president, somebody said, "You have to accept that you're able to play bad cop in a way that nobody else is, but you need somebody to play good cop." >> And so, you need somebody who's going to be loyal. Although, there's all kinds of rumors about JD Vance being so anti-Trump's foreign policy that maybe he doesn't get that credit. But, he has sent him over to negotiate. So there's enough goodwill there that he's letting that happen. So JD is always going to come across as good cop. He is very um rational. He's very calm. He's very intelligent. He's eloquent. So he offers a very good counterbalance to Trump. Now I will admit, even though I thought what Trump said was completely unhinged, I was like, >> "You won't make it back to your [ __ ] country." >> Yeah. >> Got it. >> Um he's shown he he will just kill kill. So the fact that Trump will just kill kill kill kill gives you enough cover when it is a naked threat that is almost certainly pure bluff. Some part of you has to be like maybe it's not. >> And so that I hate to say it, but that instability is very useful. So you send in Kushner who's getting like the you're too young to probably remember this, but Carl Rove had this sense of like you could hear wolves howling in the background every time he like appeared on screen. He was like a Halloween episode perpetually. He was like a ghoul of some kind. So Jared Kushner starting to get that like vibe. But I actually from the things where I've seen him speak, he is very sharp, very calm, very eloquent. And so you put those two together and I think that um Trump is hyper aware. I am the hammer and you guys will smooth things out. I'm going to make sure that we are unpredictable enough that people need to stay at the table for their own safety. >> And so it did work because at least on social media, Iran was signaling aggressively the talks are dead. we are going home. We won't even do a photo op with JD Vance. Qatar wouldn't do a photo op with JD Vance. Like it was really like for a minute it really looked like this was dead. >> So, um I think that that is strategic. I don't think in the end um the reason I say that this is all so stupid is this is egos clashing with real lives being spent as if they don't matter at all. >> Yeah. And it all comes down to the very distressing reality that even for people who are willing to take their payment in the afterlife in the here and now it's all about the economy. So the people who are willing to take their um their payment in the afterlife, what weapon do they wield? >> The economy. So uh people always try to dance around that I for reasons I do not understand. But um the economy, the economy, the economy. And so when you really just pull it all out into the frey, it's like, oh, I've got these egoomaniacs who are like, I'm not going to have somebody talk to me like that. I'm not going to have somebody tell me that I can or can't do this thing. Um, nobody's going to boss me around and all over the economy and it's horrific, but it's where we're at. >> Yeah. Then now bringing back to Israel and Lebanese Lebanon of it all. Um, this is Ben Gir's tweet that was been getting traction. This is the first time I've seen something get like community noted, but like this post violated the X rules. However, X has determined that it may be in the public's interest of the post to remain accessible. >> Yo, that's wild. >> That's hilarious. I've never seen that before. But this is what Benavir said. For every tier of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn. With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our system of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. It's the second time you said that. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF. And this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration. I told the prime minister even in our private meetings, for every tier of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. Enough with the ping pong. In the Middle East, you don't win with measured responses and restraint. You need to go berserk to a blurberry to crush the terror. >> Um, >> okay. So, here's the thing. Um, >> this is total war though, right? Like this is >> that that is total war. >> Yeah. and they won't do total war, >> but it it really is that that impulse is there. Okay, now here's where you can get people pretty riled up about Israel, but they at one point, I don't know if they still do, so by all means, if anybody in the comments knows, but at one point they had a policy of disproportionate response. >> And that's what he's describing here. It's the for every one of ours, it's a thousand of theirs. And that's how the little guy in the region holds its ground. And it is an utterly fascinating thing that shout out to all the fathers. Um, my dad told me a story of how he stopped getting bullied as a kid and it was for me to do with what I will. But he said, um, my father told me, this is so my technically stepgrandfather uh told me that if the bully is coming up and giving you a hard time, punch him in the nose and watch how quick he stops. And so kid comes up to bully my dad, punches him in the nose, bloody nose, and the kid ends up falling down the stairs if I remember right. And that was it. My dad never got bullied again. Uh, so I would say it's good advice. Take peace if peace is on offer, but if somebody's [ __ ] with you, you got to punch them. The bad news is that if you aren't careful, you become the monster. And this is Israel going full monster mode. And so watching what they did in Gaza, everybody's like, "Oh, that's what the monster looks like." And so what they've done at an industrial scale, it's so efficient and it's so overwhelming >> that you forget how it started. you forget that it started with a music festival full of the peace, the kids that want to see um Gazins Palestinians be able to be free and have their own state and live their life. Those were the kids that were murdered and raped and all of that. So, it's like but in the face of industrial scale murder and uh ethnic cleansing, it's like you just kind of forget. So, it's one of those very effective strategy in terms of people don't [ __ ] with you. This is like some Gangghask con [ __ ] but you become the monster. And in the modern era where cameras are everywhere and social opinion whips around the world, you find yourself isolated very fast. And so, I get why they say that because it is how they have staked a claim for themselves. It is um them having to deal with a day-to-day reality of terror tunnels being built in Gaza, in Lebanon, them launching rockets at you. Like at some point you do go, "Oh, if tit fortat isn't working, then I'm going to just level your entire city, your entire country." >> And but nonetheless, it's monstrous. And so now the thing that we all have to contend with as people watching on the outside is what would we do in their position like what do you do like thought experiment what do you do if you have tried for whatever 80 years to negotiate a settled piece and it just doesn't work doesn't work doesn't work and they keep killing your people at what point do you go yeah [ __ ] them all >> it's interesting cuz like going back to the bully analogy I got bullied one time and I tried to hit the guy in the like face but I missed and then like he pushed me down and it started like kicking me and stuff. So it's like I got more beat up. Y >> I didn't get bullied again though but I didn't walk away like I didn't have like the bloody nose like triumphant in that story but it's like I went down swinging whatever. >> So I think I respect that Israel has a right to defend itself. I think every sovereign nation does Ukraine we can go around the world. However, I just hate that we're in bed with this person that's fighting all the time. Like it's one thing if you had the friend that's crazy that's fighting, but it's another thing when it's your girlfriend who's drunk at the nightclub fighting every guy. Now it's putting you kind of in this bad situation. >> Now heard agreed. But what if guys really are coming up uh pinching her ass, >> like saying all kinds of horrible [ __ ] like uh groping her >> and she Oh, and by the way, um >> let's say let's really make it bad. Let's say that she's really had some essay problems in the past, like proper horrific essay problems. >> Mhm. >> But now she's strapped up at all the parties. Uh, a guy winks at her once, she shoots him dead. Now you're like, "Godamn, like, wait, hold on." But SA is not a problem for her anymore. Let me assure you. But it's like, yeah, it you go, "Hey, got it. understand how this started, but [ __ ] like we gota we need to find a solution. But the problem is like I re there isn't a solution. >> No, I I just think that I Israel as a sovereign nation I do think that it has the right to defend itself. So it's one thing if it's just disproportionately is bombing everybody and that's cool. You guys are doing that over there. But I think it impacts us now where Iran is saying we're not going to make a deal with the US because of Israel or now we have to justify their actions or things like that. And I think that us being >> Oh, so you're just saying does America go >> Yeah. >> Well, okay. So, I don't think we understand why we're as married to Israel as we are. So, if we're married to Israel simply because they fund politicians, elect better politicians. Um, that one is it's so straightforward and yet seemingly impossible to do. I'm going to speedrun how um lobbying actually works because I don't think people understand it. The way that lobbying actually works is you're not just throwing money at a candidate today, which is why um Apac doesn't necessarily have to be one of the largest contributors and I'm sure big pharma does this. And so anyway, uh what they do is they go find a young guy running for city council and they check his beliefs and if that person is just actually in alignment with their stuff, they give him some money and they're like, "Let's see what you do." And so that person has been being funded since they're like in their 20s, since they're doing like, you know, really local stuff. And so it's more of a survival bias than it's a we're going to throw big money at the problem. This is like Soros. The genius of Soros is realizing you got to go local. So you go to a DA and you just get a whole bunch of activist judges and this gets a whole lot easier. So they go and they find people who really just believe. Like Mike Huckabe is not bought and paid for. >> Like he believes what he believes. And so Mike Huckabe is the kind of person you find young and you work with forever and you just ignored hundreds of other people that you could have gone with because he's the guy that like whoa he's got a real read of like the scripture that makes him like want to glue himself to Israel. >> So to unwind that is like I would say has already begun. We've now got um a generation, maybe two, that have become completely um radicalized against Israel. Okay? So, we're running an experiment of like there's real cultural energy now for people who are like, I'm not going to take a [ __ ] dollar from you no matter what. I'll eat [ __ ] beans out of a can because I'm not that guy. >> So, whatever. You're going to get a crop of politicians who are not going to be interested in being in bed with Israel. Now, money does go a long way. I'm sure that's part of it. You've got ultra wealthy um people who are very sympathetic to the Zionist cause either because they're dieh hard Christian or because they are um just they're wealthy and can [ __ ] they're Jewish believe in the um state of Israel and are going to funnel a ton of personal money into making sure that that's all very real. But I have a feeling there's also um Israel. The GCC nations are an increasingly important um part of the foreign equation. My generation didn't grow up thinking about them because my generation grew up thinking that oil was always a thing. And they don't realize that, nope, it's really between World War I and World War II that all the leaders of the world go, "Oh [ __ ] like we need to start building tanks and airplanes and all of that stuff is going and bigger factories and all of that stuff is going to require energy, oil." And so now all of a sudden all eyes on um making that switch over. And so reading about um Churchill was utterly fascinating because Church Hill was the guy in England that was basically like, "Hey, the Navy needs to switch over entirely to oil." And I was like, "Damn, a politician like in sort of modern history was the guy that was like, oh, we we need to switch everything over to oil." And I was like, that's really recent. And so when you think about this all playing out in the last hundred years that we've switched over to oil, I think it becomes a little bit easier to understand what's going on, why everybody's eyes are on what's happening in the Middle East. And if your guy in the region is Israel, and for reasons we've talked about before, they've got the possibly the most effective diaspora of any ethnic minority ever. >> Uh now it's like, okay, hold on. There might be a lot more going on here than just these guys um are throwing money around to politicians. So if the men in black suits roll up to the new president, whether that's Obama or anybody else, and it's like, "Bro, I get that you hate Israel, but let me tell you a little bit about what you get from Israel, and you're like, "Fuck, they're giving me all kinds of intel. Uh they're keeping things in that region, either destabilized or stabilized, depending on how you want to read it. but they play some insanely important role that we're not giving enough credit to. And so now when Miriam Adlesen rolls up and is like, I want to give you a bunch of money and the men in black suits have been like, "Bro, you're going to need these guys." Uh, all of a sudden you're like, "All right, fuck." Like, I get the money and I get the whatever that thing is, intel, um, destabilization, stabilization, you know, the balance of power in a way that's favorable to the West. It's going to be far more complicated than Miriam Medson is rich and she gives a lot of money. Like it just isn't going to be that basic [ __ ] >> Yeah. >> I found the context for the disproportionate response thing you were talking about cuz it's called the Deia Doctrine and it was um from the 2006 Lebanon war. They basically took out an entire neighborhood of Deia in Barut and um they basically said, "Oh, all of Hzbollah's here." So they used that doctrine. And then in 2008, he went on the record, the IDF chief of staff to say, "We will apply disproportionate force and cause great damage and destruction to villages from which Israel were fired upon." So that's kind of how they see disproportionate response. >> Yeah. Also, I don't know if this will make people even more anti-Israel, but there's a book called Rise Early and Kill First. And it's all about I guess there's a a passage in the Old Testament that said if a man is coming to kill you, rise early and kill him first. And yeah, >> I had heard of that book. >> Correct. So it's um >> you have it. >> Yes. >> Bro, if you >> I have it, too. >> Listen, like any state, the stand your ground states, the castle doctrine, all that [ __ ] for my money is correct. If you come into my house, you get shot in the face. Uh so yeah, but again, you push it too far and you become the monster. And oh god, so much is waging in the realm of public opinion versus the reality of if you got people knocking on your door every day. But like if I start going to my neighbors because they're launching the attacks and I start preemptively shooting them in the face, it's like uh oh, that's very different than you came into my house. And so this is where it gets ridiculously ugly. >> Yeah. The Let's talk about Hezbollah. Um cuz there were some people in the chat like where does Hezbollah fit into all of this. Um I think your analogies just nailed it. I can understand terror attacks. I'm going to people responsible for this. We have to go find them like that. But there's one thing to stand your ground. And then there's another thing that like oh somebody robbed me two weeks ago. I'll be right back. And now I'm driving up and down the block blowing their house up, their aunt's house, their mom's house, their cous like that's gang violence. That's that's gang warfare. Like that's not proportionate response. >> This is gang warfare for sure. >> So that's why I'm like it's getting toward that. But what's your read on just Hezbollah and >> Iranian proxy uh doing the will of a government who wants to see religion spread around the region. Uh Israel is a problem. The Iran in the middle of these negotiations is making it abundantly clear we are not going to give up on our desire to eradicate Israel. Okay. So now you've got we're committed. Sure, we'll do the peace talks, but bro, it's not like you're going to convince me that I don't hate Israel and don't have a duty to God to eradicate them from existing in the region. >> So now they recently found more terror tunnels. great PR terror tunnels where you go in and you find in just a [ __ ] neighborhood you find a bunch of drones and missiles and tunnels that literally allow them to shoot right at Israel and you start finding all that stuff and you go, "See, we told you this is real. We're not making this up." And as long as those two are going headtohead, you've got a problem. Now, my plan to get out of this is both the only plan that will work and almost guaranteed to fail to the point where I'm like, I need to profer some solution to be congruent with my own um like frame of reference, which is there is a solution to every problem. You need to put it out on the table. You need to understand where it breaks down. There's just cause and effect. >> Okay. So, uh the reality is because it really is all about the economy. >> Uh you need two things. One, you need to get the countries interested in the well-being of their citizens in this life, not the next. So, hey, hope that the 72 virgins are waiting for you. That would be rad. That sounds really good to me. Shout out to my wife. Like, that sounds [ __ ] fantastic. Um, but I I need something to be good here now. So I need my people to believe that a year from now my life is going to be better and that 20 years from now my kids' life is going to be better as defined by economics here in this life. So you get them involved and this is I can see the Trump administration trying to do this. They keep saying we want to give them a chance to act like a normal country. What that means is stop attacking your neighbors. Stop pushing a religious agenda. Start focusing on economics. Period. So um but I don't think they're going to do that. But that's what you would have to do. You have to get them involved in the economics. Then you have to say listen uh you guys have been killing each other for a very long time. So there is no salve to make you guys feel better about that. So the cooler heads in Israel and the cooler heads in Iran and Hezbollah and Gaza like they all have to pre prevail. And cooler heads means stop trying to force your religious doctrine on other people. You don't get the land back. Focus now entirely on moving forward. There's no more looking backwards. we completely abolish any of this [ __ ] Um, the fascinating thing that we saw in Japan play out. Um, oh god, this this gets so nested, Drew. I I have never believed more than I believe today that culture just controls everything. Culture is a very shorthand way of saying the people in um a given group, it's typically regionally based, but not always. the people in a given group have an algorithm running in their brain that controls how they interpret everything that happens to them. Uh, Japan had as a very fascinating um, honor shame culture hierarchical I'm going to do one more nest. You may have to help me get back out of this. Part of the reason that Europe conquered the world and Africa did not is that cows are all about hierarchy. And so you can come into the picture and be like, I'm the king cow now. And so all the cows will just do what you say because you've established yourself as a leader. So that's baked into their DNA is to be submissive to whoever the boss is. Zebras don't play that game. >> Horses do. So if you can exert your will on a horse, they'll fall in line. They'll do what you tell them. A zebra is going to bite you, [ __ ] you, kick you, literally doesn't care. You cannot um tame them. You can't. And so if you are on a continent where you can tame a horse and now you can kill all the other tribes that don't know how to ride a horse, you win. You have a superior technology. If you have a zebra that bites you, kicks you off, tells you to just [ __ ] right off, then you can't. And so you're going to get beat by the culture that has the horses. So this this is now what you're up against. So, we nuke the [ __ ] out of Japan, but they happen to be a culture that's like, "Oh, we totally get in line with um the hierarchy." And so, what the US did was they co-opted the um emperor and they said, "Emperor, tell them to do this." And then [ __ ] Japan just did it. Now, you try to do that to a hurting culture that realizes um if I allow you to come kill my sheep, I'm [ __ ] So, I'm going to disproportionate response. So, if you take one of my sheep, I kill a hundred of yours. Right? And so now you've got multiple cultures that believe that you did me wrong. I've got to come back at you a thousandfold. And so how the [ __ ] do you diffuse that bomb? >> So this is where it's like the answer is obvious. But it's so difficult to do because you have to break those cultural norms. Good luck. Like if you're not if you're not willing to do like for real total warfare, like good luck with that [ __ ] Because Israel, for instance, they may really get Gaza because they just bomb so many people there. Um seems pretty clear that they're running a um >> ethnic cleansing. >> Yeah, ethnic cleansing thing. I was like, I just [ __ ] said it. Uh an ethnic cleansing campaign there. So, they may get that, but the problem is that's not going to solve the problem for the whole region. It's just like they get another chunk of it and now people are even more mad. So um until you can get people to let go of that cultural belief, you will have made precious little progress. Now some Muslim countries have secularized. So it's like it is possible. Look at the UAE. >> But the UAE, like if you look at the numbers, man, it's like basically an international hub. >> So from a cultural perspective, you have one family that's basically overseeing everything else. Yeah. And then they just imported like in instead of just low-wage workers, they imported a ton of capital. [snorts] And so interesting immigration uh process. Saudi is like flirting with it. We'll see. Um but that it this is a cultural question and nothing scares me more than trying to rapidly change a culture. It feels like Yeah, you're not going to >> Got it. I never heard Israel in a culture perspective. Um, but that that that framing I feel like definitely highlights this problem and it adds an additional layer to the conversation because I think too often it's Israel stop being mean whereas now you're taking the cultural nuance that's baked into them as people then it's like okay that's why they even had that response before you even before the situation even escalated they already knew that that response was like built into them that it was going to get there. >> Yeah. >> Um >> yeah. >> All right. That was a lot to put on the table. Um let's break for super chats. >> Yes. First up, we have Marushia Dark. Tom, please consider having Rupert Low on the on to discuss the UK grooming gang report. In my opinion, it's worse than Epstein. As an American, I can't believe I'm saying this on our 250th Bday, but we might actually have to arm the Brits. >> So, I would have Rupert Low on in a heartbeat. Um, did we reach out to him? We reached out to somebody recently. I gave you a list of politicians. I'm like, get them. >> Uh, that's usually harder said than done, but yes, by all means, help. uh go on a campaign, tweet at him, let him know that you want to see him on the show. Would love to. Um, is the grooming gang worse than the Epstein thing? It It doesn't scare me as much as the Epstein thing scares me. I'll be very honest because I don't think we're ever going back to the era where like the average guy in the street can hide from law enforcement like that. Thank god. Uh people now are just like, I don't give a [ __ ] if you call me racist. I see a thing happening and I'm going to say it. I don't think we go back under that rock. Praise the Lord. Now, elites doing scary elite [ __ ] I don't think we ever got out from under that rock. So, um I still think elites do crazy [ __ ] because um no one's going to like this analysis, but a distressing percentage of people stay in the elite class because they're incredibly smart. And so now you've got very wealthy, very smart people doing really heinous [ __ ] And they are much better at getting people to look the other way. Like how many arrests have there even globally? How many arrests have there really been in America? [ __ ] all. And around the world a little bit. But like it is the wildest [ __ ] ever. So they're both horrifying. I think people should have animus for both of them in equal bang the drum measure. But if we lose sight of the fact that they are the result of two very different things. So one is like oo god oh god. Okay. So please understand I'm at the beginning of my journey here. I will update my thinking as need be. But uh you have some people interpreting the words of the Quran and the hadith to sound something like this. Um and this is not all Muslims. Please for the love of God. In the same way that Christians are not one big lump, uh, Muslims are not one big lump. And you should have a default assumption that the vast majority of Muslims are loving, beautiful, wonderful people. Uh, I have visited multiple Muslim countries. And when I say that they were awesome to a country, they were awesome. Uh, so wonderful people, tons of kindness. Uh, being on the ground was interesting in the way that all countries have good and bad, but like they were great. Nonetheless, there is a very active sect of people who are translating um the Quran and the Hadith to be that there are something called kafir and that is and I'm sure I'm mispronouncing that dramatically, but that you have people that are not Muslim and they are not uh equal moral beings and therefore can be taken advantage of in certain horrifying ways. Um, I have not read the entire Quran, nor even anywhere approaching a majority of it. So, please by all means, correct me if I'm wrong here. Uh, but when you have a subset of that culture that believes, oh yeah, this is what it says, and therefore I can rape the [ __ ] out of these girls because they are uh these morally inferior beings. And then the police are terrified of seeming racist, and so they don't push the issue. Then you get something and let this one really land for you. One of the most famous events in history is something called the rape of Nank King. I think something like 20 or 30,000 women were raped. Um obviously rightly one of the most horrific things in uh history. But if the numbers can be believed um it is an order of magnitude worse what happened in broad daylight in the um rape of Britain. So damn, that is wild. So again, if that analysis is correct, and I'm early enough that hey, maybe not, but if that analysis is correct, this is once again a cultural problem. Uh, and so yeah, you'll want to separate that from um people that are elite and also have a belief that they can do whatever the [ __ ] they want presumably to uh lesser beings. [ __ ] it's so crazy. Uh but nonetheless, uh okay, follow up for the person that hasn't followed the story. Um Epstein grooming game, both bad. Condemn, condemn, whatever. Disclaimer. Um, yeah, like whatever I need to say so the chat feels seen. Um, going to this like grooming gang report though. Is it really I'm going to say this like I'm just going to kind of put it out there. Is it really that bad? as they are talking and I'm talking about like the Tommy Robinsons and the people that are like, "Hey, you could just get raped at 12:00 in the afternoon and the cop is going to act like you didn't exist and walk a step like what is the gap between what is on this report and how law enforcement is handling these cases?" >> Well, I think we have to be very careful to tease those two things apart. So, >> again, and I'm I'm I'm not even higher than headline level, so I might just be uneducated. >> No, no, you're asking a question. Fair enough. So, uh, you've got the do we have just two-tier policing, full stop, period, end of story. Okay. >> Um, for a second grant all the charity in the world to the police officers >> and they didn't understand the scale of anything. They don't necessarily even understand all the facts in that case. They are terrified of being perceived as being racist. They're probably even terrified of being racist. And so they're like, "Oh, [ __ ] man. I don't know what's going on here, but this is scary." And my emotions are just telling me to face in the opposite direction. Um, if they don't have the intellect to be able to process through all of that and go, "Wait a second. What is my moral compass?" My moral compass says there's no universe in which if this girl is even possibly being abused, that I let that stand. [ __ ] that. Uh, I'll take whatever [ __ ] RI and they go in. So, I'm not asking people to let them off the hook. I'm asking people to understand it human life is hard and standing up for your moral beliefs is really hard and when uh what is the phrase when your paycheck requires you to not understand something you tend to not understand it and so like all of that which is not me saying don't punish them I think a lot of people have to go to prison for this so uh but you've got all of that weight so are you going to get raped in broad daylight um just by walking down the street. No, the vast majority of people are not going to f they they will look for and fail to find this because it's just in terms of the overall population is thank the lord a very small part but when you look at the industrial scale so the the same thing is true in Lebanon right now statistically your odds of dying are vanishingly small vanishingly small and yet I don't expect anybody to go oh it's no big deal >> so um I mean same thing in Iran they've got What? 93 million people. They only killed like 42,000. You know what I mean? It's a vanishingly small number. But does anybody go, "Well, this isn't a big deal. [ __ ] that." Like, if you've got the government shooting their own people, like, it deserves to be remembered. Like Tianaan Square, which killed a fraction of the number of people that supposedly were killed in Iran. >> Mhm. >> So, may that slaughter be fully uh investigated and fully remembered through history as the way that tyrannical governments go. So, this is one where every rock has to be turned over. We have to find out exactly who turned a blind eye, who did it because they were just not up to the task morally, were not up to the task intellectually, and then who was evil. There's going to be all of it. There are going to be politicians that were just downright evil that saw, "Nope, not going to pay attention to that. We're going to turn a blind eye to that. It doesn't fit the narrative." yada yada. I'm just going to look away. There are going to be people that were just too dumb. There are going to be people that have no moral spine. like all of the things. But while I wouldn't say to my wife uh when we were in England, hey, don't go outside. you're definitely getting raped. I would say that this this is a scandal that is so big that you must confront it headon with a level of aggression >> that you would treat war crimes that you would treat um uh murder rings, pedophile rings, like this is [ __ ] crazy. And even if you dial back to the more mundane, like these girls were just being trafficked around, >> really think about I'm just going to give you the basic [ __ ] complaints. Forget the nail a girl's tongue to the wall while they rape her. So outrageous. Let's pretend that one's fake. I I actually need that one to be fake. But let for now, let's really say that that that isn't real. and that all that was happening was they were targeting young girls who were um vulnerable, no father in the home, maybe in foster care. And so they're going to these homes and they're and let's even age them up. Let's say that they're 15, 16, and they're taking these vulnerable girls and they're saying, "I see you. You're beautiful. Come hang out. Feel welcome. Feel embraced. Um, here's some drugs. Let's have fun. Like, [ __ ] your parents. [ __ ] the system. Like, let's just party. And then maybe you have sex with one guy, maybe it's two, maybe it's three, but like the guy's being really encouraging. Like, no, no, no, come on. Like, this is fun and don't let people put their morals on you. Like, that would be the lightest. Even that is so horrifying. That person needs to go to jail for an extraordinary period of time. That is a monster. That is somebody who has literally made a system out of rape that you know what places to go to find these girls. You have a profile of the girls that you're going after. You're inviting other men into the deal to be like, "This is how we get them." Where it could be documented. You could teach another guy. Well, if you want to do it, here's how to like most efficiently go find. Now, the bad news is it almost certainly isn't just that. And it almost certainly is 10 times more horrifying than that, >> bigger in scale. And so, and then we can't pretend that it's not 87% uh what is it? 87% of the people involved have traditionally Muslim names. Let's be very careful about what has actually been put forward. So, um you start putting all that together and it's like cool, we have to figure out like is Tom right? And this is a cultural thing and that's what's playing out here. um the evil that's gone on that allows this to be industrialized. Um the moral corruption, the literal political corruption that allowed people to turn an eye, like the just bankruptcy of not standing up for it because you're afraid that somebody's going to call you racist, like all that [ __ ] Um which you have to bring it out into broad daylight. >> That is uh bleak. >> It's very bleak. And if I may on that, every time I look at this, I'm like, this is not an indictment of Muslims. This is an indictment of humans. So, if people have not heard my frame of reference enough, uh, we're automat. We are NPCs in a video game. But, okay, now let's really get nasty. Uh, the penis is shaped like a shovel for a reason. And the only reason that makes sense is if a woman is having sex with multiple men while semen is still present. Um, guess when that happens. So, it happens so much that we have a longtail evolutionary reaction to it. And that is so horrifying. But we are in a position where we also have a prefrontal cortex >> and that allows us to override our animal impulses. And so, you don't get a free pass for it. But at the same time, man, this is why I'm always like, "Hey, when you're thinking about World War II and you're thinking about all those evil Nazis, remember the vast majority of the country broke Nazi. They didn't break I'm going to hide Anne Frank in my attic." >> So, do not give yourself the autofree pass of being like, "I'm not one of the bad guys." I think the only way to not end up being one of the bad guys is to really go, "Oh [ __ ] I bet hiding somewhere inside of me is an algorithm that says, "Hey, the group's going to turn on you if you don't conform." And that's legitimately dangerous. It's not like that's a fake fear. That's legitimately dangerous. You might get killed in the [ __ ] street because people turned on you. And nonetheless, you've got to be willing to do it if you want to be one of the 12. People remember us talking about ordinary men. if you want to be one of the 12 instead of one of the 488. >> That's like wild, too. Um, somebody in chat said they also were being selective of who they would take a report from versus others, stuff like that. So, it did seem like there is a systemic thing to >> there. Two-tier policing is real. So, if you want to I should have pulled this. I should have pulled this. >> I uh Okay. So, online today, right now, you can go find footage. Maybe it's fake. Maybe it's an accident. Whatever. But you can go on uh X right now and find footage of somebody on an Italian subway and the ticket collector comes and says, "Let me see your ticket." to uh the Italian people and literally you can see them in the shot just ignore the immigrants. And so they'll check your ticket if they don't think you're going to kick up a fuss, but they won't check your ticket. They literally just walk past them. It It was wild. That was wild. So now, hey, you can make a clip look like just about anything. Maybe that guy had already checked theirs and he was just coming back through and it just happened to be that the Italian-L looking people were the ones that were fresh on the car and the other people had already been checked at the last stop. That's very possible. [snorts] But I have a feeling given how many reports have come out that they literally, they being the cops in many European countries are like, "Lot of drama ensues. If I go after that guy, I'm just going to not." And no drama ensues over here, which again, culture. >> Interesting. All right, that was a meaningful fractal from the super chats. Uh, [laughter] let's keep it going. >> Uh, next super chat doesn't have a message, but it's from Roberto Sparsi for $20. >> He uh came He dropped another one with the actual message. >> Oh, did he? Let me go look. >> Uh, I'm a I can read it. I'm a fan from Argentina, part of the thriving middle class. Things are looking up here. Would love to have a deep dive before end of year about it. >> Word. Okay, that that's a good one. Can uh Ryan, can you slack me that? >> Yes, >> the an actual deep dive on what's going on in Argentina. I used them uh pretty heavily in one of my previous deep dives, which people can check out, but there's I think plenty of updates >> and it wasn't specifically about Argentina, so we could we could do that. >> R.J. Johnson says, "My son-in-law is Russian. He's got a PhD in applied mathematics and works for uh Genentech as a data scientist. He has close friends and colleagues in Russia. with that. He says, "Your take on Russia last Friday was delusional." >> Okay. Does he have um help me get better? So, R.J., you of all people know I'm super open if somebody has better information that allows me to more accurately map the world. I love it. Uh so, people tend to stop at the like name calling, but they don't drill in. So, I put Roana on blast on X, but I took the [ __ ] time to actually write out this is why I'm saying what you're saying is lunatic. Uh, so I'd love to know in what way my take is delusional so that I may update it. But thank you for passing on the message. And last super chat for now comes from April. Thank you for being a show that's willing to discuss some of the toughest topics, topics that many people won't even acknowledge, let alone have an honest conversation about. Yeah, I the reason I I'm willing to do it, one is that um my entire game is to earn my own respect and I don't like anything that makes me feel like a coward. And so being afraid to talk about this stuff, this started years ago. It started during COVID. I was legitimately afraid to talk about these topics. Um I think probably for good reason because I do think this is going to hurt video game sales. But uh nonetheless, it made me feel like a coward and I didn't like that. So I started going down that path. Um, and then also I am not worried about being right. I'm worried about understanding how to actually solve these problems. Uh, because I still, man, do I have fantasies about living forever. And so, even though I don't have kids, I want Drew's daughter to grow up in a nation that I think is wonderful and beautiful for her. And shout out to Drew and all the other fathers out there who bust ass to raise their kids well. Thank you truly for your service. Um, so yeah, I want the world to be good for me and for all the kids and that you have to stand up and talk about the ideas. May I never get locked into dogma, but you certainly have to be willing to talk about the ideas. >> That was it for super chats. [laughter] >> My daughter's there making all the noise in the world. >> Um, all right. Well, we covered the grooming gangs. Um, this is perfect timing for K Starman because now he can just slowly back away and say the next guy has to deal with it. This is his speech from the resignation uh a clip from his uh resignation announcement. >> Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labor Party. >> Respect. I have spoken to his majesty the king this morning to inform him of my decision. I will ask the National Executive Committee of the Labor Party to set out a timetable with nominations opening on the 9th of July and completed by the summer recess. >> The bad news is he's probably going to be uh replaced by somebody farther to the left. That's the wild part. But people are offering I think legitimate criticism which is that the right did nothing to stop immigration. So you had people vote for Brexit. >> They exit the European Union because they didn't want to be beholden to their laws anymore and they still let a ton of immigrants into the country. I think it actually went up when conservatives were in power and actually went down under Kira Starharma. So it's like this is one of those where it's like kids if you don't get it together and confront why they're bringing in migrants. So everybody hears the story about why the people on the left want to bring in migrants, but people don't hear the story about why the people on the right want to bring in migrants. Everybody is trying to deal with the fact that birth rates have been declining for a very long time. And if you have fewer workers, then the workers start getting powerful and they can negotiate for higher wages. And all of a sudden, you realize that your economy isn't growing because you regulate things to [ __ ] death. And so it's like, well, this is a lot easier to import cheap labor, especially when you have a left-leaning personality and you're like, well, we raped the world for 200 years, so we should now let the world literally come and rape us. That is the brutal reality. The brutal reality what you see playing out. And because you have that dual need, right? All eyes on Japan, please. because you have that dual need, you're going to see neither the right nor the left get serious about booting people out. Just real talk. Um, Lith in the chat kind of nailed it for me. I think UK naturally is more left. So, even their conservative party, I would say we would call like American moderate. I don't think they have like a I guess Rupert Low and the Reform Party is like the real right. >> Restore Britain is right. >> Yeah. like may maybe that's where that's where it is. But under UK labor like the Labor party has to get control until their the next election. So it is going to be somebody from the same party. So the equivalent of if Trump resigned it would be another Republican person that will then take the mantle over. >> Yes. And maybe it would be far more noticeable because Trump really is a singular figure >> in England. Um Kier Dharma is not a Trumpian figure. he's not able to force his will on his party or people outside the party. Uh so the real question is the guy that everybody thinks is going to replace him is a guy named Burnham. And that's why he's announcing now because Burnham got elected. He had to be a member of parliament to be considered for um uh prime minister. And so they finally got him elected. So now he can be considered uh for prime minister. But this would be like what um AOC getting elected, stepping down so M Donnie could take our place. And yes, I'm well aware that he couldn't actually be an American president because he wasn't born here. But uh that's what it's like. It's a shift even farther left. >> Mhm. Um so we shall see. Like you said, they'll have it wrapped up by the summer recess. So that's like around the fall time for us. Um it it's weird though because I want to say this is their seventh prime minister. But like it seems like UK it hasn't really been yeah like locked in the last couple years and that's I want to say from like 2019 or something like that. So it's not a long time or 2019 uh yeah 2019. Um in general though is this more an indication of how he performed as a prime minister? Is this more of an indictment of the west is still distracted and people don't like the change that it's going through? What do you think is the thing that like made him actually like leave? >> It's populism. Mhm. >> So you have economics. Well, sort of. So what I'm talking about, the specific element of populism I'm talking about now is you have economics is the problem >> and you're bringing in a politician to solve an economic problem with every other tool at his disposal and so it fixes nothing. And so he can read a laundry list of, oh, I've done all these things and everybody's like, but I still have a problem. And that problem, depending on whether you're on the right or the left, is going to be different. But it it has an underlying economic issue. And so unfortunately, what you need right now is the country to believe in a Margaret Thatcher type character, but they're not going to. They'll be super divided. And this is why austerity hasn't helped and why he came in because you're not pushing it far enough. And so he came in and um lifted the austerity measures, which is the exact wrong thing to do when you have an economy that's in trouble. He's trying to socialize things even farther. And so what what the UK needs to do is close your borders. >> Um you need to deregulate a lot. You need to focus on innovation and you need to grow your [ __ ] economy. So you're going to empower your workers so that their real wages are going up. you're going to um deregulate so that fewer things are run by the government and let the free market start to run, which will increase your GDP, which will increase your tax base, which will also allow you to deal with the fact that wages are going to get more expensive because there's less immigrants coming into the country to undercut everybody. So, um that's what they need to do. And then also, they've really for long-term health, they've really got to get their birth rates up. Um, but they're not going to do that. And so whether you go right or left, I mean, maybe if you go all the way to restore and they at least stabilize the culture so that you're not swinging left and right so hard. Um, that may help. I don't know enough about Rupert Low, though, to know if he's really going to go unhinge psycho. Um because anybody who's at the fringes like the very thing that gives him the backbone to say we're going to deport all these [ __ ] uh can also make them go Xinping. And so we've got and we'll see if we have time for it, but um Xiinping is it's hard to say if he's passing laws, edicts, like whatever the right word is when you have a pallet bureau and they just do things by decree, but he's starting to now tighten his fist over China. And it's like, yes, when you have a benevolent dictator, it actually is a more efficient form of government, but you create a vulnerability to a character like Trump or a character like Xi that we don't actually have. So Trump isn't able to do for all of the crying and wailing. Trump is not able to do the things that Xi can do. We have too many checks and balances. Even though our system is certainly weakened, it is not weakened that far. Um, so that's where it's like be very careful what you wish for. And I don't know enough about Rupert Lo to know, no, maybe he's great. Maybe that's exactly who they should elect. >> Um, but anybody that finds themselves on the extreme end makes me nervous. >> Yeah. Um, so it's interesting on that stand front. The UK, the West is going a bit more right where South America seems like they're going through a red wave of themselves. >> Wait, wait, wait. UK is going more left. >> Yeah, the West is going more left. South America >> Sorry, I thought you said more right. My apologies. >> South America is going more right. uh with uh Colombia's um new presidential um uh candidate. Um I need the Spanish speakers. How do I pronounce his first name? >> Albalardo. >> Albalardo de la. >> I think that's exactly correct. >> Espia. >> Espria. >> I can't really. >> Espria. >> Espria. Espria. Okay. Espria. >> What's up? We need to go to Colombia for research. [laughter] >> That's what it's for. Uhhuh. Cuz it's it's it's rightwing and we got to inspect it. So with that going on, u it it does seem like in different regions everybody's kind of tightening it up and now bringing it back to China with this national unity law. China's already a dictatorship. They don't have to worry about the right or left, but even Xi Jinping now is trying to like double down. So where do you think it's coming from? From China and how can we tie that kind of how the the es and flows are going on around the world. >> All right. So let's take them one at a time. The most interesting story in South America is a question. I don't think anybody's answered it. It is literally just a question right now. But the question is, did US aid as an NGO >> influence all of the left-leaning things that were happening in South America? And the reason that all of a sudden we have so many countries swinging to the right is because US aid is no longer funneling money into those um organizations. That to me is a very critical question. So I have a growing belief that NOS's are just activist groups that throw money around in the same way that anybody who's up in arms about um Apac should be up in arms about US aid. >> So um that's where I'm like we we don't have a clear enough picture about the NOS's yet, but more and more stuff is coming out. So that's it's very open-ended and I don't think we have an answer, but it is that is a very very interesting question. Now, it may just be that people have put up with this [ __ ] long enough. They see a Trumpian figure, they get excited, they see Blly, they see MLE, and they're just like, "Oh shit." Like, these guys, one, they're being supported by the US, which is a very good thing for us in South America. And then two, like look at what Blly has done. Look at the surplus that uh MLE has done. MLE, everyone said there's no way he's going to come in. He's going to ruin everything, but he didn't. And he's actually turning the country around. It's very, very exciting. So now it's like is it just that or is it both? It's probably both. We'll see. But that's the part that I find really interesting about what's happening in South America right now. And by the way, I would like to put another thing on the table, which is the um the president of Cuba. I had to fact check. I was like, there's no way he actually said this. But the president of Cuba went on and said one of the core tenants of communism does not work in practice. And so it's like, hey, really cool idea. It sounds awesome. I get why people like the idea of communism. It lets you completely indulge in all of your resentments. You can hate the guy that's more successful than you. [ __ ] burn that [ __ ] to the ground, which is a real thing that drives humans. Humans are very resentful creatures. And so you've got that and it leans way into that. And it also cloaks it in. Treat the country as you would treat your family. And because you really do have that impulse for your family, like, yo, I want like it is a point of pride for me that if ever Lisa and I like there's only one thing and one of us is going to get that thing, I'm like, not 90% of the time. 100% of the time that goes to my wife. That makes me feel good about who I am. And so it's like, cool. Yes. Like I get it. That doesn't scale. It is also in the human mind. [ __ ] those other kids. So you get into like this complete derangement. Remember the iron law of oligarchy. So you build something around um a thing of resentment. In fact, will you do a fast search? If we can pull it up while I um talk here, I want to read a message. So um Carl Mark's father's message to Carl. Search that. See if we can get it up. So, you've got this like ideology of resentment cloaked in this like thing that's very loving. We want to take care of everybody else. Um, but it doesn't work in practice. And so, everywhere, yes. Okay. Here we go, boys and girls. On the day after Father's Day, let me read a message from Karl Mark's father to Karl Marx. So, this is a guy that gave us communism. Frankly speaking, my dear Carl, I do not like this modern word which all weaklings use to cloak their feelings when they quarrel with the world because they do not possess without labor or trouble well-furnished palaces with vast sums of money and elegant carriages. This embitterment disgusts me, and you are the last person from whom I would expect it. What grounds can you have for it? Has not everything smiled on you ever since your cradle? Has not nature endowed you with magnificent talents? Have not your parents lavished affection on you? Have you ever uh have you ever up till now been unable to satisfy your reasonable wishes? And have you not carried away in the most incomprehensible fashion the heart of a girl whom thousands envy you? Yet the first untoward event, the first disappointed wish evokes embitterment. Is that strength? Is that a manly character? That, boys and girls, is socialism and con communism in a nutshell from the father watching his son literally invent it. So hearing the president of Cuba finally admit price controls don't work. Price controls don't work. They [ __ ] everything up. They break the physics of the economy. And once you understand that the economy works on physics, that plugs in to the human mind, you understand why it is both so enticing for the reasons I just laid out and it [ __ ] everything up. It's wild. And yet, we keep doing it over and over and over because people do not mentally map the actual functioning of the economy. It's wild. It takes a long time. I get it. It took me a very long time. But nonetheless, if you don't, you end up in a culde-sac of death as you pursue things that are never going to work. So, I loved hearing him admit it. It was >> um we were supposed to be talking about China and uh but that is a perfect segue to the uh Freedberg Rocon exchange that's been happening on X. Um for those who haven't been following the journey, we're not ready yet. For those who haven't been following the journey, it started off with Freeberg um giving his opinion on the economy. Ro kind of retweeted it and then after that way they kept kind of going back and forth on it. Um >> yeah and I can give you the details. So basically uh you've got Freeberg trying to get everybody to distinguish between makers and takers. So there are people in the world that make things and then there are they create value. So obviously this is still largely an echo of the conversation around Elon Musk. Roana is just beating the drum literally going on every show that he can saying hey we can afford this amazing thing. we can take care of all kids. Uh we just have to tax Elon Musk. Literally just one guy. We just tax him and it would take care of this. This other policy, we could just tax Elon Musk. It will take care of this. So you've got Friedberg trying to get everybody to understand this is all [ __ ] This is fake framing. The world is not even divided into rich and poor. It's divided into makers and takers. People that create value, employ people, build things that people actually want, create a way for people to invest in the stock market to make their money go up. And then you have people that just want to tax everything, that don't make everything, don't make anything. These are the politicians, people like Ro Kana. And so that is when Ro was clapping back and being like, listen, there's no way Freeberg, this wouldn't even pass like a freshman class in a place like the University of Chicago, which is full [ __ ] [ __ ] from Roana. So, and I went through and I tweeted back at him and broke this [ __ ] down point by point. Now, our boy uh Friedberg, which by the way, it's fun seeing two alumni of Impact Theory uh doing Battle on X. But, um Friedberg clapped back with a really like cool zinger, which was like, "All right, man. If it would work so much to just go take money from people, you're worth roughly 200 million. Why don't you uh donate that money? Just go ahead and do it. You want other people to do it. Uh why don't you do it?" Which of course he's not going to do. But a it's wild that Ro Kana has a 200 million net worth. I believe he's if not the top trader in Congress. He's one of the top traders. I think last year he did like $53 million in trading volume. Absolutely wild. So >> it's my first time hearing about Roan being a top trader. That's interesting. >> Roan is not here to [ __ ] around. Uh, so yeah, this is where it's like also one of the things that Ro said that absolutely drives me [ __ ] crazy when they talk about taxing the um someone like uh um Elon Musk and they say we could take care of children's food, education, whatever. They never say for a year. >> So they just go this is a one-time tax, Drew. What what's the problem? We could feed kids, clothe kids, educate kids for, you know, they they never say for a year. We could we could do it. Then it's like, uh, you say it's a onetime tax, but that will only pay for one year. You 100% want this to be a policy that lasts forever. And this is exactly why for every new dollar in tax revenue that we bring in, we spend a $158. This is literal madness. We do not have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem. And if if you can get by a freshman class in uh the University of Chicago or anywhere else by saying we can do a one-time tax and then put a policy in place as if that's not going to create a problem in year two, you better fail otherwise that [ __ ] university is not worth uh the ground that it's on. Like that would be the most insane [ __ ] ever. And so now I'm back left asking a very sincere question. Are these people dumb or are they evil? It's one of the two. They are either dumb or they know exactly what they're doing and they are pushing this [ __ ] agenda. And either way, that is bad news for being in office if you actually want to solve the problem. Because here's the thing. I think Ro, unfortunately, is smart. And I think he's intentionally conflating things. And so, he'll say some true things. He'll point out the economy is broken. The American dream is dead. He is correct. Now the question becomes, if you roll up on a house and there's a dead body on the floor and there's [ __ ] blood everywhere, you don't just go, "Ah, that person's dead and let me tell you who I want to be the killer." You actually have to do the forensic analysis and figure out who killed the American dream. The American dream is dead. There is like [ __ ] slaughterhouse blood everywhere. And the answer is very simple. Politicians and central bankers killed the American dream. That's it. Nice and [ __ ] simple. Nowhere to hide. I don't need to caveat those two classes of people killed the American dream dead and they did it in a mechanistic way which means that we can just follow the cause and effect and the mechanistic way is the only thing that people understand if you want them to actually save their wealth so they can pass it on to their kids. They understand saving money meaning I spend less than I make and they understand buying a house. That's it. Full stop. Period. End of story. So if you make houses unaffordable, you just [ __ ] them. It is the only asset they understand. This is part of why Pokemon cards do so well. People sort of understand it. Not really, but at least they know they like the thing. Best performing asset class more than Bitcoin. PS. By the way, I'm not sure if it's more than Nvidia. That would be the only question mark that I would have, but it might be. It's been insane. So, politicians and makers have created that problem. So, politicians regulate everything to high heaven and they deficit spend, which then forces the Fed to print money. When you print money, you devalue the dollar. And smart money does what? They go into assets to hide from the hidden but very intentional tax of inflation. And so now the rich get richer because you push them into this wealth creation vehicle known as the markets and you force so many of them in there because they have to beat inflation that already that bumps up the value. But then you devalue the dollar, which then makes it appear that their wealth is going up even more than it is. So, and then you cry foul. [ __ ] you. You created the problem. It's very easy to see. We can talk about it openly all day. You can throw any caveat that you would like to talk about and let's just talk about it head on. So, the American dream is dead. You [ __ ] killed it. And you're the only one that's going to be able to unwind this [ __ ] Balance the budget. And then on top of that, he like goes through a list of like all the other like bullshitty things that we need to do. Okay. Oblique references the K-shaped economy. We just talked about that. Uh nurses and teachers need to get paid more. Awesome. Guess how you do that. Isn't price controls. Guess who just told us trying to control the price with rent freezes and [ __ ] like that. They just said it doesn't [ __ ] work. The president of Cuba. Yet you [ __ ] are still going to do it. That's [ __ ] crazy. The guy in the middle of it is telling you this [ __ ] doesn't work and you still want to do it. That [ __ ] is wild. Deregulate. Deregulate. Let the tax dollars follow people. Oh, by the way, we have spent more and more and more on our students and the union. And guess what? It's done [ __ ] all. So, we have made school more expensive, but we have not improved the outcomes. You've got to trust the parents to actually think through this problem and say, "We have this many dollars to give to parents for each of their kids that are in school." Cool. Let them do what they will with those dollars. Then you're going to find out real fast what schools are actually competitive and which are not. So, yeah, >> you kind of say the same thing about our military, too. We threw all that money at our military and yet Iran is handing us uh a problem >> sort of. So I I know you well enough to know uh that that is your sort of version of sarcasm. So what I will say on the military is the military. You're making a category error. Unfortunately, you can't have competition in the military. So we can't like arm a bunch of states and be like, "All right, you guys decide which one of you guys is going to go fight Iran." Uh that's how you end up in total chaos, madness, civil war, all of that. >> I I am not. And this was actually part of my um push back to Roana. Unless you want like actually that's not true. My push back is the people on the right who want to go all the way to no government. And it's like unless you're going to go with Michael Malice and anarchy which I think is the most positive version of that that you can go. So this is not me trying to be cheap and say you know the typical branding of anarchy means chaos. It doesn't. But it does mean that every exchange has to be voluntary. There is no tax. there is no military and it's like that to me is stupid. So you need to have your country needs to have a military. There are going to be some guard rails that you need to put on because the elite just as they will do all the crazy sexual [ __ ] they will also manipulate the financial world as they are doing right now today. And if you don't try to curb them, they will curb stomp you. So you do need some guard rails. But this is, and I'm going to use this analogy until I see people [ __ ] wearing it on t-shirts. This is just like food. So regulation is like food. If you have too little, you starve to death. If you have too much, you obesify yourself to death. You have to be disciplined. You need to eat, but you need to look at your body fat and be like, "Am I lean or not?" And if you're [ __ ] fat, you need to be like, "I'm fat." America is [ __ ] fat. Morbidly obese. Our government is crazy. This is this is legitimately an 850lb man to whom people keep bringing ice cream and that person is like I don't have enough calories. [ __ ] you must be kidding. So this is crazy. Once people understand the American government is like an 850 lb person who is adhering to the fabric of their [ __ ] couch. They will understand whenever that person goes, "I need more food." You can just immediately say, "Fuck you." Literally, [ __ ] off right now. Shut up. get up, starve for at least a year, then as you start trimming back so you can actually stand up, then we can talk. But god damn, right now, hell no. All right. Um, let's go through some of Roana's exchanges because I think we need to beat this dead horse to death. Um, because I think that everybody says, "Well, but he does have a point because the math works, but to your point of the year thing, let's kind of run these thought experiments." So, this is him on Bill Maher talking about the student loan debt. I took out a lot of student loans. I've done well. They shouldn't forgive student loans for people like me. But if you're working class, you're first in your uh family to go to college, you have all this debt, and then you're paying off your debt until you're 50 or 60 and can't get a house. We can pay off that debt. And you know how we pay for it? >> So here here, oh man, does this make me mad. So okay, uh here's what's actually going on because people don't understand how these loans work and how we have found ourselves in this situation. Everybody is just super confused. Um the US government has done a very immoral thing and they have um put students in a situation where they can get themselves in an insane amount of debt and those people cannot declare bankruptcy. You cannot discharge student loan debt and then the government has guaranteed those loans. So now taxpayers are on the hook for the kids that end up going to college. That already is absolutely sinister because what you allow the colleges to do is just absolutely bloat their um staff with a bunch of um administrators that aren't providing a better education. Remember Xihinping just killed off a bunch of degrees you can get because he's like these are [ __ ] So these don't matter in the modern economy. So we've got people going to universities to get degrees that literally don't matter. You're not going to add value. This is why you remain in debt for so long because your job is not going to pay you enough for that investment. So this is like um everybody's an entrepreneur of their own life and they say to start my company, my life, I'm going to take on this debt in order to go get this degree so that I can build this company, my life, moving forward. And the government's like, "Yeah, cool. I'm going to back you." And so I'll guarantee it. So the banks will give you the loan and [snorts] then the schools are going to get their money whether you end up succeeding or not. And so the schools win and they just keep getting bigger and bigger and bloating and bloating and getting more and more obese and more um degrees are added on that are never going to pay back. So there are bad companies that never should have been funded in the first place and taxpayers are going to eat that when that kid defaults whether now or in the future. The taxpayer ends up having to pick up the tab. So, what they should do is go, "Oh, we need to free market this because some of these degrees are stupid." And so, we're going to net we're going to let kids decide. So, hey, if you want to take an underwater basket weaving degree, uh, if you want to do like trans lesbian studies, whatever, [ __ ] go do it. And if schools want to offer it, great. And then when a crop of people gets out and they're like, "Damn, I got my uh, trans lesbian studies degree, but I'm [ __ ] sweeping the streets." Then people go, "Well, okay, it's dope. I want to read about it. I want to learn about it. really important to me and I'm not even being derogatory about that. Like if if you really love that, [ __ ] learn about it. There's nothing stopping you. I'm obsessed with Japan. Learn about it all the [ __ ] time. Nobody's paying me to do it. So go learn about the thing you care about, but don't try to start a business on that. That's [ __ ] stupid. Your life is a business. And so the government shouldn't be backing these loans. [ __ ] you. If people take out a bad loan, they need to be able to declare bankruptcy so that here's the punchline of it all. The banks are disciplined about who they loan money to. Right now, the government's like, "You don't need to be disciplined. I'm going to cover you." So, they'll back anybody to go to college. And it has created these insane distortions. Once again, price controls do not work. You need to let banks go out of business for making bad loans. Full stop. End of story. Then all of a sudden, banks are going to be like, "Yeah, I'm not loaning. What degree are you going to get? What' you get on your SATs? you either are or are not a good person for me to invest in because I either do believe or do not believe that you're going to be able to pay this back. Once you force that discipline, all of these downstream problems go away. You no longer have generation after generation saddled with this insane debt because the schools know they can charge more and more money because the government's going to guarantee your loan and the banks are going to give you a loan for like these insane [ __ ] figures. It is so crazy. So again, Ro is either dumb and he doesn't understand how this works or he's evil and he just wants to have another thing to promise people. We're going to free college for whatever because he's given like some weird narrow things. The first person in your family to go to college, why the [ __ ] does that matter? Uh yeah, so this is all insanity. Force the discipline at the level of the economics which is at the bank. >> We do have an affordability crisis. We do have a student loan debt epidemic across a trillion dollars. It's going to be almost as big as the military's uh budget. Is is this something that should be talked about? My proposal always was the government should be making profit off of kids in their loan. So, if you are if you do have a student loan, cool. You can pay it back, but just pay back principal. We don't need interest. The government has plenty of money. They only need to make 7% flips off um a bunch of 18 year olds. That's my pitch. that cuts the loan down by 30 40% on average to certain people. At least now we're under a trillion dollars. Some people want to forgive it full stop. How do you think the government should handle this massive amount of student loan debt and the saddled young people who can't get out of that? >> I think the least um controversial one would be you've got to let them declare bankruptcy. They should, anybody with student loan debt should be able to discharge it by biting the bullet and filing whatever chapter 7 or 11, I forget which one's personal, but you file for bankruptcy and now it's gone. You've got seven years of like bad credit, but hey, better that than a lifetime of this. Now, that would cause real problems with banks. You're probably going to have some banks go under. It is what it is. Mhm. >> And by the way, if that ends up affecting me because my money is in a bank that ends up getting hit, it is what it is, man. Like, this is one of those where you've just got to say, you can't do that. You can't settle kids with that. That's [ __ ] crazy. Now, your idea is also great. It's far better than this idea. Just principal only. Okay, awesome. Let them declare bankruptcy and just make them pay the principal. And that way, if somebody's like, "Okay, do I take the seven years of hard knocks to get rid of the 180 grand or whatever?" Yeah, I'm never going to make this back. [ __ ] it. Cool. Great. Double whammy. Now you got both. So, I think that there are plenty of sophisticated ways that we can go about dealing with this that are relatively straightforward and do not make this a taxpayer burden. But right now, that's the one thing. Hey, wouldn't you know it, politicians are banging the drum. Let's make it a taxpayer problem. >> All right. And then the second thing, this is him. Um, Jennifer Welsh. I blanked on her name. Um, a 5% onetime tax on Elon and this can provide universal child care. Um, he used Elon Money to solve like four problems already. So, >> for a [laughter] year. >> But think about this, Jennifer. For 5% tax one time on Elon Musk, you could have universal child care in America, $10 a day for every family. That's one person, one time, 5%, and he wouldn't even miss it because the market would grow by 15% and his wealth would still grow. And yet they're opposed to something. >> Listen, I would say that Ro can't predict the market, but maybe he really can given uh his history of trading. So, yeah, that's like a string of absurd statements. So, first of all, absurd statement number one we talked about before. That's only for a year. Uh, of course, they're going to keep the policy ongoing, which means you will have a hole in the budget the next year. Also, the just foundational problem is that Elon does not have that money. That money is fictional. It's called an unrealized gain. I wish that they would just call it uh pretend gains, fake gains, maybe one day gains, but it's not money. It's not actual money. [snorts] So, that one's maddening. That one's maddening. Uh, so words matter. And when we call it wealth, we make it sound like people actually have this money. Elon does not have that money just as a reminder. Um, first of all, I'm sure there are lockups, so there's some amount of it he's not even able to sell. And then in selling it, you end up influencing the price, yada yada. So, yet another problem. Uh, also, hey, every time the government throws money at something, guess what you get in just massive measure? Corruption. So, guess how many daycare centers open when the government's just like, we're just going to pay for all of this. All of a sudden, it's like just like we had a 10,000% increase in autism, all of a sudden we have more kids enrolled in daycare than we have kids in America. So, yeah. Uh, your government is obese. Your government needs to get lean. Yeah. Um, we covered the the Cuba angle of it all. I It's just I don't know. I'm going back to Freeberg's original post on allin a couple months ago when he was just like, I think sometimes we just have to walk it through it. Some people just have to burn their hand on the stove to know never to touch it >> because I think >> that's dire. >> Yeah, this this conversation keeps coming up and people still repeat it and but still he got it still. He's fine still, but it's Elon. He can make more like there's we come back to this a lot. So, I feel like it's one of those things. >> Here's the thing. I This is one of those um every time I say this stat, I think I have it wrong and then I reook it up and I'm like, "No, it really is true." Um Ryan as our uh fact checker. >> Yes. >> Since in the last 10 years, I believe we have doubled the um government's budget. Please fact check that. Now, I believe that's accurate. And if that's accurate, ask yourself, has your life gotten twice as good? And if it has, okay, well, that's at least an argument. If it hasn't, I don't think most people would say that it has. Uh, what the [ __ ] are we doing with that money, Ryan? >> Federal spending was about 3.69 trillion in fiscal year 2015 and 7.01 trillion in fiscal year 2025, which is close to a 90% increase. So, essentially doubling in uh nominal terms. >> Kids, wow, >> kids. What the [ __ ] So, we went from 300 lb to 600 lb and we're still asking for more calories. That is crazy. >> All right, I got one. Kit Moon. I just think it's messed up that the government bailed out the banks but are against bailing out people with student loans. >> Like student loans debt is considered they need to figure it out. They need to bootstrap it. They shouldn't have done it. Why are you taking out that loan? What's your major? What's your degree? Meanwhile, you shorted the housing market, but it's cool. You're too big to fail. We need you. >> Like you created the problem. We were pred the receiving it of predatory policy. Got prayed on. >> You know what I mean? And yet >> they don't get that. >> Here's why. because you end up giving a tax break or just raw dollars to people that are already ahead of the curve and you're asking people that may be worse off than them to deal with the tax burden. >> So it's that that one's pretty rough like from a psychological perspective. So, um, when you do that, like if you forgive that, so those >> forgive student loans, >> forgive student loans, that that money is owed. And so, now the government is going to have to go pay all that debt, and they're going to use a trillion dollars, whatever, of taxpayer dollars to do it, but they're not going to shrink the budget. So, now they just got to get another trillion dollars in tax somehow someway. They will either do it by printing, which is almost certainly true, and that taxes everybody. M. >> And so now you've got a [ __ ] poor guy coal mining and he doesn't pay taxes, but you're still taxing him via inflation. And so the money that he makes goes down. And so rightfully people who are like, "Hold on. I didn't go to college because I couldn't afford it or I didn't send my kids to college because I couldn't afford it. And now you're going to ask me to pay for your college? No way. Hard pass." So, I think it is unfortunately immoral. >> I mean, there's people without houses that still got taxed by inflation. Well, because of what the banks did with the housing market. >> Yeah. But it's like, okay, let's say this. Um, one person got beat unfairly and so now I need you to beat everyone to like make up for it. It's like that doesn't strike me as the right answer. So I agree bad things have been done but the way that you end up in madness is just constantly looking backwards. You just have to fix the problem and move forwards. Like there's unfortunately there's no way around it. You have suffered an injury to which only you can deal with the consequences. That's the bad news. And you're just going to put the country back in the same death spiral if you're like no no no you need to cover this too. There will be no end to the calls for but wait I was wronged over here. you've got to take care of this as well. You You just literally have to say, "Okay, >> we're not doing that anymore. We're just going to look forward and yeah, fix the problems, but don't paralyze yourself with having to both fix a problem moving forward and create a bigger hole for yourself by trying to resolve a problem that will be fundamentally unresolvable going backwards." >> Is that the same argument as food stamps in section 8? I can pay my rent. I can buy groceries, so why am I responsible for other people's SNAP benefits and section 8 benefits? >> Not quite. Because what we're talking about is um if we want to look at like the SNAP benefits and things like that, what you want to look at is the breaking point where you end up making yourself poorer. So like somebody like me covering the cost of poor people, that's whatever. I'm not going to notice. But when you have one of those tax demarcation lines where you start losing SNAP benefits because you're making that amount of money, but you're not making more than you lose in benefits. And it's that transition period that creates all the madness because people go, I'm better off here. I'm just not going to make that extra money. >> And so you create a perverse incentive. So there are people for whom they would be better off if they just let go of their pride and said, "I'm just going to take from the government." and they would actually have more money in their pocket. So that has like its own derangements and you know my take which is that should all be means tested. If you're able-bodied you should be working. Um and just full stop period end of story and all of government assistance barring like permanent catastrophic disability should be temporary at best. I love that we have it but it should be very temporary. Um, so that's how I would look at that as differentiated from, okay, uh, you did this bad thing and there have been so many people that have been wronged by bad government policies and I would like you to make up for all of those bad government policies. It's like you really can't look backwards. It's it's too deranging and it just makes the hole deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper. And so this is where okay where socialism communism goes very wrong is it says I just cannot have an individual suffer so I'm going to push everything up to the government level. What Christianity solves for and the reason that Christian countries have done so well is it says no the individual needs to carry their own burden and you've all been forgiven. You're going to heaven. you're gonna get your just rewards, but I'm gonna push this all down to you. You all have to bear your own cross. And that idea of like, all right, I'm gonna shoulder my responsibility, and that is how I honor God. Um, that's how you get something where the spark of divinity is in the individual, and you get a country now where people carry their burdens and they um take personal responsibility. They push forward and that asking people to carry their individual burdens where the family rallies around them or the church may rally around them, but you don't try to push it back up up up up up up to this nameless faceless thing that has no idea whether the people that are asking for a handout are worthy or not quite frankly. >> Um, you bring me back to my like summer camp days when you raise your hand. I appreciate that. [laughter] >> Yeah. I just don't want to cut off the floor. >> Go ahead. What were you saying? Um, I was just wondering cuz I feel like this is adjacent to this whole conversation. Um, so I'm on Catholic Twitter even though I'm not practicing. So I still see all the arguments going on and one of the things the PO pope tweeted something this morning and it split the entirety of Catholic Twitter and I was wondering if y'all saw it because it's kind of about all of this. He basically wrote is the it is it is important to resist the commodification of basic human needs. Food, water, and healthcare cannot be subordinated to market considerations or geo uh geopolitical interests. And he keeps going. So I'm just curious like with the religion element um how does like Catholicism play into this because we mentioned Christianity. >> Yeah. So well on that all I can say not necessarily how Catholicism feeds into this but certainly how that comment feeds into this which is um he has been a part of an organization that has been prosperous now for almost 2,000 years. Uh so at this point I think he has completely lost sight of the fact that both religion and governments were originally born because most people died of toxic water or whatever. And so, um, what we have relied upon to get to this point is innovation. And the fact that we're now acting as if, uh, nature isn't read and tooth and claw, that you don't have to bust your ass to pull bacteria out of the water to avoid, you know, all of the waterbornne diseases and parasites and all that [ __ ] is crazy. people have lost a frame of reference that is so scary that they're going to bring us back to that initial starting point. So, I get it. He's viewing himself as somebody that needs to fight for the little person. And I [ __ ] love that. I love that there are people that are wired like that. And religion at its best does that at the the ground level that it's like you literally train people to be you're going to give your life in service of God by making contact with humanity. So God is running this experiment where he creates everything. But he steps back and only pops in like once every few thousand years and like no I got you don't worry but like I need you guys to do this [ __ ] yourselves. And so you get these, you know, being generous here, but you get these pious people who are legitimately like, "Holy [ __ ] I'm going to dedicate my entire life to this." Like, I cannot fathom a guy saying, "I'm never going to have sex because I just want to serve people so much that I will subordinate all of my needs." But yet some of them do it. Man, what a [ __ ] beautiful gift. Like that's really crazy. And so at the local level, go to your local church and look after 75 people and just do everything you can to make their lives better. That's awesome. Like can you really look poorly upon that? Now they derange in the same way that a large corporation deranges or a large government deranges. I get it. But like if you accept that read of the way that some people go into it to really do that, that is a really beautiful thing. Okay. But we have to understand how we actually solve these problems. We solve these problems because we have people that innovate. And unfortunately, a lot of that innovation is warfare. A lot of that innovation is sanitation. But if you want to go see countries that are really held back and they just cannot make progress, they can't take care of the basic stuff. And unfortunately, as China has proven, as so many countries have proven, the only way to pull people out of that desperate gr grinding poverty where they are just being eaten alive by disease and stuff, famines, is innovation. And the only way to get people to innovate is to give them economic freedoms. To let people get rich. That is the only thing that gives them the energy to try things. The vast majority of whom will fail and die broke because they tried and it didn't work. But every now and then someone becomes incredibly successful and it makes life better not only for the people in that country. It makes life better for the world because that technology inevitably spreads. How do we deal with the changing societal contract where it's no longer go to work, get a go to college, get a job, you'll be good for 30 years. Um to a now you have to kind of figure it out yourself. You're responsible for your career path. It's on you to kind of make the money. Um, how do we square that with not everybody is meant to be an entrepreneur? So, is it just going to be kind of a wave of hardship and then the people that can't figure out don't figure it out and the people that do do? >> Yes. >> And we have to just stop trying to make the most amount of people prosper at once. >> That is correct. And uh if unless you are literally [ __ ] it is on you to make your life work. Now the awesome thing about family and we should be encouraging family values um they'll take care of their own. >> Now [clears throat] not always and of course families can break bad just like anything else but it's the right level for people to look after their kin. So um we should be encouraging that. Again religion has historically played this role. Maybe that day is over. Maybe it's resurging, but that's where you don't ask the government to be a nanny because it's absolutely god-awful at it. It will perpetually destroy the children. >> Uh but you do it at the family level and you get a pretty overwhelming number of people that come out. Okay, we all get broken in some way. Everybody's broken in some way, but nonetheless, that's the best layer to do this at. And yes, some people are going to win, some are going to lose. But if you look at um certainly western civilization, it has been not an only up phenomenon because it is a jagged line but it is a over the long period of time innovation makes everything better because being um isolated like if you were just take an extreme example if you were schizophrenic back in the day your best hope was to become Jon of Arc. Uh but for the most part you got kicked out of the group or just killed by the group itself because you seem like a witch or you seem completely crazy or you really were dangerous and so they just killed you. Uh and so being the reason being ostracized is so terrifying to people is it meant basically certain death. They literally gave um Socrates you can be banished or you can um drink hemlock and kill yourself. He just killed himself. He just drank the [ __ ] hemlock. So ostraization used to be like good and proper terrifying and only through innovation have we made it such a homeless person can get by because we live in a world of so much abundance. They can get themselves out of the elements. They can get money off of people just walking by. We'll just give them [ __ ] money. Um and so in even a city like New York, how many people freeze to death in a winter in a population of I mean in the city proper? What's it like 3 million? something like that. 4 million somewhere in there still only losing a couple hundred. Like that's wild. So, um none of that should be possible. It should be uh every homeless person effectively should be dead, but they're not because of all the technology, whether that's the heat coming up on the grates and they just [ __ ] cling to those, whether it's shelters, people giving them money, whatever. Uh so, we've completely lost sight of none of this is natural. This has been an unending string of innovation. >> Mary, what's up? Um, Okie Doofi Sophie just said, "Uh, Drew, does your kid know what she wants to do yet? I'm struggling to know how to guide my teens. I feel like that's going to be a conversation. I had a going away party this weekend with a friend of mine who was leaving uh Phoenix. He was like, "Yeah, man. Like, you know, I you know, I got all these things I have to figure out. What about you? What are you dealing with?" I'm like, "I don't know. I'm dealing with a world that I don't know how to raise my daughter in because I don't know what it's going to look like." So, it's like I know what my next year is going to be, but my next five is just a big question mark because it's like, is she going to crash out and not be able to do it? And then I'm going to have to modify my life to take care of her. Uh, or, you know, maybe I can, uh, become a bank and just get bailed out. So, who knows? Uh, one can hope. Maybe I could be too big to fail. >> Fingers crossed. >> Fingers crossed, you know. So, I I'm trying to figure that out. But I think that that's definitely a sentiment that's happening is just that there is a changing social contract. And I think that I've heard the boots strap regret my whole life. So that's nothing new. But I think I've never heard it while society was also collapsing under those straps. >> But here's the thing. So it the the reality is the only way out is to get as strong as you can intellectually, emotionally, and financially. >> And uh obviously I know you personally, so I know you're making all of those moves. So I believe that Lynn is being certainly indoctrinated by watching you. Mhm. >> Uh you're both loving, you're attentive, you're smart, you're hardworking, you're focused. So I imagine you're telling her all of these same things. Now AI is terrifying. So it is hard to see around that corner. But the thing I remind myself of is the only real battle with AI because AI is either going to fail to become the thing that we fear. Um in which case life looks very much like it looks now or it becomes the thing that we fear and we have universal high income. And then the only thing you have to manage for is meaning and purpose. Now that's not nothing. That's a big deal because I don't think people have a very easy time manufacturing meaning and purpose in a world that's easy which is why we have the fourth turning why good times make weak men. Um but nonetheless if what everyone focuses on is adaptability that um to your daughter I would say yeah I don't know what the future looks like and that's super scary but there are people that love you and you love them focus super intently on that >> in term because by the way that's the best thing life has to offer you anyway full stop. Uh, and then in terms of money and taking care of yourself, the big thing is going to be to be adaptable and to find out ways to engage with the thing that you love, whatever that ends up being, or maybe there's multiple things that you love, to find out ways to um, make sure that you're making a living somehow touching one of those things. And that can be working as little as possible to allow yourself maximum free time to engage in those things. Or it can be working as much as possible doing the thing that you actively love. Now, a lot of this is based on your talents and skill sets. And so, focus on something that's going to be very difficult for AI to supplant so that you're the last one standing. So, get good at using AI because that's where we're at currently. And then things that are about being in person, engaging with real people who value real people. That is never going to go away until the human genome has been altered, either through technology or through gene editing. And so, that's off in the future. And again, you don't have to worry about it because it will only matter if we all do it. Uh otherwise, it will be again coming back to uh love yourself, love the people that you're around. Um make sure that you can be emotionally resilient because some of this shit's going to get real scary, but that's life. And I think if we all model that that like, yeah, okay, cool. Courage is not the absence of fear. It's moving forward in the face of fear. Like then it's just like keep your head screwed on straight. And then whenever, dude, if ever I get overwhelmed with business, I always say to myself, okay, there is a knowable obstacle between where I'm at and where I want to get to and there's a knowable thing that I could do with the next 15 minutes of my time that will take a meaningful like bite out of that obstacle. What is that thing? And then just do it. And this is why lateral eye movement works as a um anxiety treatment and depression treatment is your eyes move laterally when you're moving forward. So evolution had to get people going even in the face of being terrified the whole village is going to die or whatever. And if you laid on your stone bed uh in your cave then you all died. And so only the people who when they started moving forward they felt better only they survived. So now we all have this algorithm in us where when we move towards the difficulty we move towards the solution we actually feel better. And so that's my whole thing is I have a rule in my life. I don't stand still. I make mistakes. I sometimes pursue the wrong thing. But I never stand still. Standing still is the only guaranteed failure. If you move forward though, it's like, okay, moving forward. I'm always checking for is there a different direction that I can go, but I'm not just going to stand still. And so in the face of AI, that that is my advice to people and I'm living that. Now, look, admittedly, I have money, all that. So, I understand, but keep in mind, my whole life has been moving towards one dream, which I am trying to build in this video game. And as I'm building it, I'm getting daily notifications that AI is almost certainly going to make it irrelevant by the time I'm actually able to get this thing across the finish line. And so on a daily basis, I have to fight the impulse to just go be rich and to just to give up and not do it. So while I don't expect anyone to give me any credit for the fear and anxiety that I will have to eat, but again, AI will only be a problem if it ushers in an age of abundance. So, we're all going to have to contend with the like meaning and purposing. How do I keep myself moving forward even when it seems like God maybe this is all going to be worthless? Just it's not worthless today. So, keep going. >> Cool. Appreciate it. Appreciate it. Uh, we got a bunch of supers. >> Yes, we do. Uh, Demo says, "Informed voters electing better people misses a key point. Government controlled public schools force feed information to future voters before they vote. The goal of the first amendment is to prevent government info control and public education. That's so true. This is one of those things that terrifies me, man, that we So, oh god, this is probably too big of a fractal for the end, so I'm going to speedrun it. >> Drew, >> were you looking for approval? Oh, on the speedrun. [laughter] >> Uh, Drew, I want you to lie to Lynn relentlessly. >> Yeah, I have to. >> And I think you're right and moral to do so. As long as the lies that you tell her make her more optimistic, more brave, more bold, more confident. Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. >> Mhm. >> Um, at the same time, people need to be able to say that's a lie and he's not being honest and they shouldn't be shut down for it. But you really need like you need to mind control yourself. You need to mind control your kids >> and you need a frame of reference that is high utility. So, we live in an age now where we're giving very low utility beliefs to people and it's terrifying. But I'm not going to come in and say what we really need to do is try to give kids the full and complete picture of say America's sorted past. It's like you got to agegate that [ __ ] It's like yeah eventually they need to discover that humans are [ __ ] flawed and a lot of them are super evil. But it's like starting them with that when their prefrontal cortex not fully formed. This is a terrible [ __ ] strategy. >> So yeah, mythology exists for a reason. Your job is to impart morals to your kids, values to your kids. It is not to be truthful. Yesesh, I can't. That really is true. >> So take it for what you will. >> That's valid. >> Uh hello Blind World with the $50 super chat. Thank you for the $50 super chat. >> Oh [ __ ] You guys, by the way, to all of our super chatters, and some of you are here all the time. Thank you so much for supporting the channel. We've never done anything where it's like we've got a separate for subscribers only, maybe one day, but uh man, in the interim, the people doing the super chats, thank you. It is very kind. >> Without government subsidies and government contracts, would Tesla and SpaceX have survived as companies? >> So, we'll never have the counterfactual. But here's the way that people should be thinking about that. If as a government we don't want to try to direct any of our industry. I think that's a suicide pact. So I would not do that. I think that there really are times like right now times in history where you have to say I get that China can do this cheaper, but we've got to tariff the [ __ ] out of them and we've got to start manufacturing here here in the US for reasons I've gone into a hundred times. Uh that's very important. Now, once you start creating the incentive structure, don't be mad at the company that ends up winning within that incentive structure. That's dumb. And also, unfortunately, it doesn't work to go, well, if the government's going to create these incentive structures, then we want to take some of that um ownership of that company. What that does is create a perverse incentive to treat it like it's too big to fail. Far better to do something like this. We're going to give uniform broadspectctrum coverage to every company like an S&P 500. Maybe you create your own, but it's based on preset criteria and any company that qualifies gets put onto it. And any company that stops qualifying falls off of it. Great. Do it like an index. Give that to every kid. I love that the most. That way, you don't give a [ __ ] who wins. You just care that someone is winning. And so now you're agnostic to the company whether you created the incentive structure that allowed them to get big for a while or not. Now the marketplace stays competitive and the average person from the second they are born gets access to the power of that market. Avidly Aspire says you're laser focused on the economy. Would love to see you deep dive into the US health care system. It's 18% of the US economy requires at least 20% of middle class income and is the number one reason for wage stagnation. Okay, Drew keeps beating me to death. Every time I ask him what I should do a deep dive about, he says healthcare. Uh, maybe it's that time. >> I'm trying, guys. I'm trying. Pitch it like three times already. >> Okay, I've got it. Today is Monday, so I'll be deciding on the next deep dive today. Here's the only thing that might eject me out of that. Uh, uh, actually, okay, I won't let it eject me out of it. Um, because I love knowing what I'm going to write the next deep dive on. Let's do it on healthcare. So, we'll we'll do that, but I may have to do uh like a trilogy because there's no way I'm gonna understand all of health care to have because I have to record this tomorrow. So, I tend to start with something that I already have a pretty deep understanding of and then do it. Um I do not have a deep understanding of healthcare. So, I'm going to have to bite it into small pieces. Now, that may end up punishing the channel. So, um Drew, forgive me. Uh but, uh if people are that dieh hard about it, I'll certainly give it a shot. Chatterbox7000 with a $51 super chat. >> Hey, he tried to win up super chat. Thank you for the reason. Insanity, >> man. Hi, right back and thank you for such a generous super chat just to say something nice. Um, I'm always humbled by that. So, thank you. >> Esoteric Dichtomy says, "The bank bailouts were TARP loans. The bank had the banks had to and have since paid them back 100% plus dividends. It is not comparable to student loans/forgiveness. Still shouldn't have happened, but it isn't banks getting forgiveness. >> That's that's a great point. Um, if the banks really did all pay them back with interest, then shout out. I love that. Um, and has been something I've said about Tesla in the past. Um, so yes, uh, in that way, if you end up getting your money back, I've got no beef with it. Um, but the money printing still devalues the dollar which breaks the ability to pay for it. So if we had to money print to make the loans, unfortunately it probably still does more damage than good. So love that we build a reserve that we use to save companies if they can pay back those loans. But if you have to money print, you really do hurt people. do AIG next esoteric and then the when you're done do the uh Ford and General Mill uh General not General Mills Ford and General Motors uh bailout also in 28 2008 so banks was one of four >> at the m levers we pay pulled >> and if I remember right they paid like insane bonuses and [ __ ] it was just >> taxpayers getting fleeced >> by the elites >> and lastly no message but Tabitha Parton sent $50 >> oh she wrote a message in the chat >> oh was it in the chat I missed it >> thank you guys Thank you, Tabitha. Uh, I just seen she said I didn't write a message or something something something. [applause] >> Oh, I missed it. >> Uh, hold on, Tabitha. Don't go nowhere. >> Yeah, especially >> Oh, I found it. I forgot to type my message with my super chat. Thanks to Tom and the team for helping me get inspired each and every day. We all have a choice to wake up and cry in a corner or seize the day. >> Damn, I love that. Tabitha, thank you. That was amazing. Thank you for the generosity and thank you for a wonderful message. Much appreciated. All right, we get them. >> Yep. That's all the super chats. >> Awesome. All right. Okay. Well, my gratitude continues to Kelsey. Kelchi, thank you so much for supporting this live. We really, really appreciate you. And you guys show them some love. There's a QR code on the screen. Use code impact for $10 to trade on kowshi.com. Uh really, really appreciate them. And what I use them for is just figuring out where is the sentiment, where are people willing to spend their money. They are tremendously good at acting as a proxy for polls. Uh so I encourage you guys to get a read on where culture is, what people think. uh super effective for that. And speaking of being effective, I've got another AI master class coming up this Thursday, not this Thursday, Thursday, July 9th at 1 PM Pacific. Thursday, July 9th at 1 p.m. Pacific. So excited for you guys to sign up for that. It's completely free and I'm going to show you guys how to use AI to launch a business. This is such a charmed window. Do not let this moment pass you by. Uh and I'm not like blind to what AI can actually do and where it falls down. So, I'm giving you the real stuff, things we do here at Impact Theory on the daily. All right, guys. Love you bunches. We will see you on Wednesday. Take care. Peace.