Trump Kills Housing Bill To Stop "Commies" & The Supreme Court's 4 MASSIVE Judgments
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
President Trump's decision to withhold his signature on a bipartisan affordable housing bill in an effort to leverage the passage of the "Save America Act" serves as the central catalyst for this episode, sparking a deep debate between Tom Bilyeu and Drew Pinsky regarding national priorities. While recent Supreme Court rulings have delivered significant victories on immigration issues such as ending Temporary Protected Status and overturning birthright citizenship, the hosts disagree sharply on whether these legal shifts render voter eligibility reforms less urgent or if solving today's housing crisis should take precedence. Bilyeu argues that ensuring only citizens vote is foundational to preventing a demographic shift driven by mass immigration incentives, which he fears could skew census data and lead toward a one-party socialist state; conversely, Pinsky contends that the immediate affordability of homes for current residents must be addressed first, noting that rent control measures often backfire by causing building abandonment rather than solving shortages.
The discussion extends beyond politics to analyze broader economic methodologies and historical precedents, criticizing Trump's strategy as short-sighted political gamesmanship while acknowledging that productive discourse requires understanding each other's underlying assumptions about cause-and-effect relationships. The speakers examine four major Supreme Court decisions, expressing strong disapproval of the ruling in *Monsanto v. Donnell* which shielded corporate interests over citizen safety, yet accepting the reversal on TPS as consistent with its temporary nature. They also address Thomas Massie's comments on nationalizing private companies like Intel and MP Materials, warning that adopting an "American economy with Chinese characteristics" would calcify free markets and lead to failure, contrasting this dangerous path with Cuba's model of starvation and dictatorship while highlighting how asset ownership prevents the resentment-driven revolutions seen in other nations.
Looking toward the future economic landscape, the conversation explores America's potential transition from a global imperial power to a wealthy regional hegemon focused on North and South America, where superior wealth, AI leadership, and capital inflows seeking safety could drive growth despite deglobalization trends like tariffs forcing manufacturing back home. To address widening wealth disparity and ensure broad participation in compounding economic growth without government interference, the speakers propose an innovative education initiative that would automatically deduct funds into index funds for citizens starting at birth, offering a superior alternative to traditional Social Security or homeownership requirements. Furthermore, they analyze the tech sector's evolution where early adopters often fail due to high infrastructure costs while later entrants succeed using existing systems, predicting consolidation as foundational models become commodities and money shifts toward application developers who build user-friendly interfaces on top of them.
Finally, the episode touches upon diverse topics including geopolitical tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, parenting advice that emphasizes guiding teenagers with principles rather than dictating actions to build emotional resilience, and a critique of public figures like Gary Vaynerchuk for terminating logical debates with emotional appeals instead of addressing reasoning. The speakers refute historical criticisms regarding economic booms under high tax rates by pointing to low per-person revenue post-WWII manufacturing dominance and financial repression as true drivers of prosperity, while also dismissing Mark Carney's "mosaic" identity concept for Canada as suicidal without a shared societal cohesion that prevents fracturing into resentful factions. Ultimately, the dialogue concludes with an acknowledgment that while political tactics like holding housing bills hostage to pass unrelated legislation are flawed, understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating complex issues ranging from AI regulation and martial arts insurance policies to the fundamental structure of American democracy and economic freedom.
Read the full video transcript
Good morning everybody. Welcome to
another episode of the Tom Bilyeu show
live. I am so glad you guys are joining
us. Uh, this is going to be a wild one
as you would expect in the world the way
that it is.
We're all trying to make things more
affordable and yet Trump refuses to sign
the wildly bipartisan affordable housing
bill as a way to get the Save America
Act passed.
Drew and I are definitely going to be
fighting about that. It'll be an
interesting time. The Supreme Court
gives two big immigration-related wins
to the Trump administration.
Uh, this is an important thing. It's
going to be one of the biggest debates
of the next 10 years for sure. A
Singapore ship was struck by what's
rumored to be a drone while attempting
to transit the Strait of Hormuz and that
is not closed the strait, but it
certainly diminished traffic greatly.
Thomas Massie calls out Trump for
communism
and I'm going to say he's got a point. I
have a feeling you guys are going to
hate my take on that one, but it's going
to be important to talk about.
Regulatory capture games are being
played right now in AI, all of course
under the guise of safety. Brace
yourselves for that. New York City rent
freezes get passed. Man, did I not want
to see New York go down like this.
Uh, it'll supercharge the New York City
affordability crisis
and most likely justify the seizure of
properties. We'll get into the details.
Inflation numbers are out man. Yikes. We
have hit 4.1%.
That is double the Fed's mandate and up
from May. Not good news.
But speaking of actual good news, GTA 6
has made a rumored, it's rumored, but a
rumored $3 billion
in pre-sales
nearly 5 months ahead of their release.
So,
man, if you build it, they will come.
It'll be very, very interesting to see
what actually ends up coming to that.
All right, shout out to today's sponsor
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Shout out to Luis Morales. He's long
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haven't already.
All right. Boys and girls, the biggest
housing affordability in decades, bill
that is,
actually cleared Congress and not just
cleared Congress, but it has massive
bipartisan support. That is going to be
a very important part of this story.
This is beloved by people on both sides
of the aisle. These are warring
factions. That is the right way to think
about what Congress and quite frankly
the Senate look like and everybody, not
everybody, but the vast majority of
people on both sides of the aisle are
supporting this thing
and Trump is refusing to sign it.
Now, before I tell you why he's refusing
to sign it, I want you to understand
what it actually is. So, first of all,
the private equity cap is like the big
part of this. So, the bill bars large
institutional investors from owning more
than 350 single-family homes. Now, that
might still seem a little bit traumatic,
uh but
at least it's the first federal limit.
So, previously, the PE firms could just
go crazy. They could gobble everything
up, make things far less affordable.
Now, the reality is that they don't
actually own a lot of American
single-family homes like something like
0.34%
but they're purchased in really
strategic areas and therefore they can
in a given place make that make the
prices there go up.
Also, I just think it's a terrible
precedent in a time where we are
struggling so desperately with
affordability when it comes to homes.
Now, the thing that I love about what's
happening here is that there's actually
a lot of incentives to get people
buying. And so, you can get carve-outs
for new builds. So, if you're doing a
new build, which is one of the things I
think the bill is going to be most
effective at spurring,
um is okay, if I'm a PE guy and I want
to put my money to work in real estate
and I can't do it with homes that
already exist, cool. Then, if I want to
gobble up more, I'm going to have to
build more. Now, still may not be ideal,
but boy oh boy, is this a step in the
right direction, which is precisely why
you're getting this bipartisan support.
So, if you can trigger private equity's
greed, and I know everybody hates that
this is how the human animal actually
works, and I know everybody is spiraling
right now thinking that
we've somehow got to legislate our way
around greed. It won't work. What you
end up with is resentment versus greed.
This is a terrible battle to play out.
We're going to talk more about that
later today. We've got something special
for you guys at the end of the show for
people that want to stay late with us
today. We're actually going to uh bleed
into a third hour. I'm going to be doing
a full-blown reacts to the DSA sweep, uh
Chevalier, who I think is really
representative of that, but that stick
with us in the uh in the extra hours, if
you will, uh if you want to be a part of
that. But
if you really want to make things more
affordable, you've got to build more.
And so, anything that's focused on
putting regulation in place that's going
to inspire people to build, I'm here for
it. Now, is it triggering a um desire to
be greedy and go in and make money? Yes.
Is that how humans work? Yes. So, is
that how we drive costs down? Yes. Is
that how we innovate? Yes. Is that how
we actually solve the affordability
problem? Yes. So, getting
more people building new things has to
be the end goal and that's what this
bill's about. Okay, so there it is, it's
sitting out there. This is a thing. It's
certainly not perfect, but there's a
reason that it has this kind of
unprecedented, at least in today's
environment, bipartisan support is
precisely because people can actually
see from a cause and effect perspective
how this is actually going to be good
for people who are struggling with
affordable housing.
With that looming in the air,
you've got Trump saying, "I'm not going
to sign this." And so, the question
becomes, why on Earth is he not going to
sign this? This is where I hope we can
all share in an absolute hatred for
politics. But, step down from the
emotional reasoning of I just hate
politics. This is something I find
people have a hard time tracking with
me. I will often say things in a very
passionate way, a very big way, a very
animated way, a very emotional way, but
the actual words coming out of my mouth
are chains of logic. And so, I want
people to separate emotional reasoning
from an emotional presentation of
logical steps that you can follow from
cause and effect.
Okay. So, when you look at the way the
politics actually work, part of what
makes this so grotesque is it is a game
of convincing people to take the
electoral
action that they want them to take. So,
they've got to convince voters to
actually vote for them. And then, within
the structure of the actual rules of the
way that Congress and the Senate work,
and all of the procedural things, that
there are ways that they all go about
bullying each other. And so, all of that
is hideous, all of that is grotesque. I
don't know a way around it. This is from
time immemorial. This is just how this
stuff works. So, we're now in the belly
of the beast. This is exactly how the
sausage is made. Trump is saying, "I
need to get the Save America Act
passed." Now, I think what you're going
to see, at least between Drew and I, I
don't know actually, we'll see, but um I
think we see that part of it very
differently. So, I'm like, the
affordability housing bill needs to get
passed. It must get passed. I think it
will get passed because there is so much
bipartisan support.
But, in a very temporary fashion, I
think Trump is using it to get the Save
America Act passed. So, now you can
obviously begin to tease all these
different things out. Should um
legislation work this way?
Okay, I would say no, but the reality is
it just interfaces with the human mind
and this is how you leverage to get
things that you want done. This is done
on both sides of the aisle, again, for
all of human history, at least as long
as this kind of government has existed.
So, I don't think we're going to back
our way out of that one with any
realistic thing.
So, now it becomes, okay, should Save
America, the act as it stands, be a
thing that we're fighting for? That's a
very different question, and we will
certainly talk about that as well. And
then, what should we uh how should we
react when a politician is holding
something that has this kind of popular
support, when they're holding it
hostage, how should we react? And I
think most people are going to say,
"Well, if I want that thing to get
passed, I'm going to be really annoyed
about it. If I don't want it passed,
then I'm going to care a lot less
because, yeah, [ __ ] it." So, right now,
to at least give the cause and effect,
know what goal you have. So, rather than
walking through what my take is, know
what goal you have, and then figure out
which path is going to get you there.
So, if you're looking at the end state
of immigration, and you're saying we
absolutely must put constraints on um
immigration because
you get this
tearing apart of the social fabric of
your country because people are not
assimilating and you have a side that is
running an immigration strategy to get
what and this is my presentation to get
illegal voters in the country to
increase your body count which helps you
on the census which then drives your
power in Congress but also they're
clearly certainly in California pushing
for um expansion of voter rights to
extend into people that are um currently
have a legal status and are not able to
vote. Now, I think that's also being run
at a federal level. So, that's why I'm
gung-ho to see
Save America get passed. I want to see
people have to prove that they're a
citizen before they vote.
Okay, but you have to fill in what's
your end goal there, right? So, that's
mine but what's yours? Now, what are the
actions that need to be taken in order
to get across the finish line there? And
so, that's where all of this is now
going to play out within the body
politic where they're going to try to
take that thing, hey, I know everybody
wants this. Cool, you want this? I'll
give it to you but you've got to give me
this thing. And so, that is politics.
Now, I don't think there's any way that
Trump is going to be able to stop this
from going through. I think that it
would be too politically damaging but I
think that he can leverage it to at a
minimum force the Save Act to a vote.
And so, that is um
the way that everybody has to think
about this. Right now, it isn't that
Trump is saying that he doesn't want
that bill to get passed. He's saying I
see how popular this is and I'm going to
use it as leverage. And so, that's the
moment that we're stuck in.
All right.
Drew.
>> I feel like you've been teasing me up
like me and Drew are going to clash
about this.
>> it's interesting. I When when you and I
talked about it at the surface level, I
thought that um
you
This is where we have to look at what of
the three things are we talking about.
>> Mhm.
>> So, if anybody said I don't like that
this is being used as leverage, I'm
going to be Yeah, me either. So, that
one's easy. I wish that we didn't live
in that political reality. I wish that
humans weren't like that. I find
politics disgusting. This is one of the
many, many reasons I will never be a
politician. There's nothing about this
that I like.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh it's all posing, posturing, bullying,
all that [ __ ] I just despise it. So,
that one's like an easy give. But, when
you get to Okay, should we be trying to
push forward the Save America Act, which
is what this is about to me. This to me
isn't about the housing affordability.
The housing affordability, I think is a
yes on virtually everybody, including
Trump. So, it's like that is going to go
through. It just becomes a question of
do we use it in this moment? I've
already addressed my thoughts on that.
So, now we get to is Save America a
thing that we actually want to see
pushed through?
Now,
>> Go ahead.
>> I was going to say, can we throw this up
on the screen? These are the
>> three paths that can happen with the
bill. So, Trump had the first option. He
can sign the bill into law and make it
law. The second thing, he could veto the
bill back and send it back to Congress.
He could do number three, take no
action. This is the thing that people
are getting wrong. While as he's taking
no action, there's a 10-day clock. 10
days from now, if Congress is in
session, the bill will become law
without Trump's signature. But, if
Congress is adjourned, I don't know, for
maybe a holiday recess that's happening
next week for somebody's 250th birthday,
>> Let's go.
>> then the bill will then be sent will be
pocket vetoed and sent back to Congress
and they have to start all over again.
So, while yes, Trump can take use this
housing bill to take hostage, I'm just
going to point out that we all slapped
our Democrats around and called them
told them that they don't care about
country or America when they were trying
to stall um the budget bill because they
wanted to defund ICE after ICE got the
raise in in funding. So, it's one of
those things where I'm going to be mad
when you do the tactic and then I'm
going to do the tactic and now
everybody's mad at me. It's that's
completely fine. If we're now we're
realizing that we're going to take for
tat. So, to your point, if we're going
to talk about that, we both agree tit
for tat is wack. That's a bad way to run
the government. Cool, we can put that to
the side. Save America Act. We talk
about the Save America Act in nauseam to
me. I think that this is something that
we want to be correct, so we're finding
evidence and things that we're putting
in there to try to justify it. But there
has been federal lawsuits. Dominion
Voting has got paid out by two different
people, Fox News and the MyPillow guy.
Um
>> No, they dropped the lawsuit against
MyPillow.
>> It was settled.
It wasn't a drop, it was settled.
>> Interesting. How much did they pay him?
>> It's undisclosed amount.
>> Ah.
>> You love when it's undisclosed amount.
And then MyPillow guy is now talking
about I'm I'm running out of money going
for bankruptcy. He was trying to clear
out that pipeline cuz he's running for
governor. So it's one of these things
where when we're fighting it in the
court of public opinion on X, everybody
sees thousands of voter fraud
everywhere. When it's time to get it to
the court from the Georgia mail
drop where Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard was in the I was about to
say DNI. Tulsi Gabbard,
she was in the back of the SUV with all
the boxes and they stole them at the
middle of the night and the governor um
the overseer of the voters in Gov in
Georgia was all mad like, "Hey guys, I
want my votes back." And they had them
and it's been 6 months and nothing
happened from that. So again, I want
this to be a fair and safe election. I
want everybody to have a good election.
I think gerrymandering is a way bigger
problem than a voter fraud cuz we're
actually seeing the results of that.
We're actually seeing people lose their
seats. We're actually seeing people lose
primaries. We're actually seeing the
fabric of the Senate and the House being
changed based off gerrymandering laws.
Whereas with voter fraud, as much as we
want this to be a thing, all it's been
so far is vibes and emotion.
>> Okay, so just to make sure that we're
tying it back to the Save America Act.
>> Mhm.
>> Um are you saying, "Hey, one, I hate
that we're using this political process,
this gamesmanship of leveraging again
something that basically everybody
wants. We're holding that hostage. I
hate that. And the very thing that
they're holding a hostage for, I think
is garbage anyway and we shouldn't be
doing it. The thing that we think we're
solving, the commie takeover,
>> Mhm.
>> would be directly
like extinguished if more people can
afford housing. The reason there's so
many socialists going on right now
>> on cuz you're fractaling. So, we and
>> That's a very valid point. We'll get to
that.
>> Copy.
>> But I want to walk people through if
anybody's trying to figure out how they
think through this. This is and this is
something I find that people do a lot is
um they won't resolve one issue before
they move on to the next.
>> Okay.
>> So, we we have like real agreement on
the political process sucks, but we're
we're trapped, and so here we are. Then
we've got Save America Act, yes or no,
because that to me, this whole thing is
about Save America.
>> Mhm.
>> Now, you have another very valid point,
which is gerrymandering is a bigger
problem, but this battle isn't about
gerrymandering.
>> Even if you address specifically, Save
America specifically.
>> Even in the Save America Act, we have
wins in men and women's sports, we have
transgender mutilization. So, if a very
smart Democratic person can take that
and say, is transgender mutil-
mutilization, child surgeries more
important and a bigger issue than the
housing uh unaffordability crisis?
I can name 10, five people of major
cases that are children who are being um
affected by this. I can name 5 million
people who can't afford housing. So,
again, Save America, if we want to just
say the act versus the housing
affordability, I think the housing
affordability is more important than the
Save America Act, yes. I think if we go
through the Save America Act itself, I
like that you need to be a citizen to
vote, absolutely. And I'm just I have
morals and I have principles that I am
not illegal, I vote. I don't know any
illegals that vote. If I see an illegal
voting, I would say something. I don't
see it, I don't experience it, I don't
know.
But to just act like the Save America
Act is only about election when it's
already a pork bill with other things
that aren't necessarily important, I
think Trump is using this as a talking
point, and I think the Save America Act
is similar to the Iran War. He's about
to start a He's creating a problem, and
then he's going to try to fix a problem
that wasn't really a problem in the
first place.
>> Okay, so just to summarize, obviously a
lot of very valid points in terms of the
way that people shove things into random
ass bills, that I'll put back in the
bucket of the political process itself
is deeply flawed. I don't see a way to
fix it personally, and maybe we can have
that debate another day. Uh but setting
that part aside, now looking at just
Save America, you're saying I have a
priority, and my priority goes like
this. Uh housing affordability is so
much more important than the Save
America Act. I literally don't give a
[ __ ] I'm not even going to think about
Save America. I don't see this as a
problem, so [ __ ] it. I'm not going to
think through it. It's just not a big
enough problem. So, [ __ ] you, Trump.
Put this thing through.
>> Yes.
>> Okay. So, uh that's very clear. My take
on this is very different. So, um
housing affordability is critical. It's
one of the single most important
problems that we have to solve as a
nation, but one of the things that I
found certainly in the realm of business
is if you get the prioritization wrong,
then you're really in trouble. And one
of the things every entrepreneur has to
get good at, and I think of legislators
largely as a board of a company, and
that company is United States of
America, and basically the policy that
they're trying to put in place, they've
got the prioritization wrong. So, if you
essentially keep marching towards either
something that is directly
um socialist, which is what I believe
will happen if you don't make sure that
the only people that are voting are
citizens of the country
for incentive structure reasons that we
can talk about, but I'll say let's set
aside for a second. Um if you keep going
down that road, I think that is far more
foundational and will have much bigger
impacts even on housing affordability.
So, you can just look at what's
happening in New York. So, for me,
without trying to convince you guys to
adopt my way of thinking, I'm trying to
show you how I think through the
problem. Subtle difference, but it's
very meaningful. So, um when I think
about this, I'm trying to think, okay,
what's the right priority for these to
fall into? Which one is more
foundational? Who votes in your
elections is more foundational than
housing. Housing is actually going to be
downstream of that. So, the people that
are voting are going to set the
policies, the policies are going to set
whether or not housing ends up becoming
affordable or not. And so, that for me
is why you've got to solve that problem
first. Now, yep.
>> People voting in our elections are a
bigger problem than people affording
houses.
Accurate representation of what you just
said?
>> No.
>> Pe- pe-
uh
verifying that citizens are the only
people voting in your elections are more
important than housing affordability.
>> No.
>> Okay.
>> So,
>> I thought this is what you just said.
I'm going to say
>> No. So, I'll I'll say it um with no
words around it.
Starting now.
Who votes in your elections controls
housing affordability. Therefore, you
must address voting first, or it will be
fruitless what you decide on
affordability today, cuz it will get
wiped out.
>> Okay.
>> Period.
>> Okay.
Um people voting in your election.
Let's double click onto that, cuz I can
I have data that shows who needs a
house. I have data that how this housing
bill can help people get a house. I have
data even that when more people own
houses, they become less socialist.
But I don't have data on illegals voting
in the election. So, how do we do that
part?
>> I do have some data, and this isn't
necessarily on illegals, but this is on
people who are typically lumped into the
illegals group voting in favor of Trump,
primarily. I do have those if y'all want
those numbers.
>> Sure.
>> So, um this is specifically border
towns. So, Starr County, Maverick
County, Webb County, and Zapata County,
which all covers Rio Grande City, Eagle
Pass, Laredo, and Zapata, all ranging
from 95% to 100% Hispanic. Let's just
say for the sake of the argument that
illegals are voting in this. Uh
predominantly, Trump won by a large
margin in all of those counties, but
they're all border towns. So even then,
if illegals are voting, they're
predominantly voting Republican.
>> Okay, this is so fascinating. So I think
the your read, your analysis on the data
doesn't make sense. And so the to me the
data is going to look something more
like this. In border towns, those are
people that are going to feel most
strongly that you need to close the
border. So the great irony is that in
those towns, especially the people that
they're likely to be able to pull to get
these numbers or in the actual
elections, are going to be predominantly
the people that can vote because I agree
with Drew. I don't think that right now
we have like some insane massive amount
of voter fraud. What I see is
terraforming to make sure that we can
actually do some sort of amnesty
program. So the people that have come
across the border for reasons that we'll
get into in a minute that really inform
my decision-making, so that they will be
able to vote. Now I think what's
happening in California is ballot
harvesting and things that ought to be
illegal but actually aren't illegal. So
let's tease that out. But what I see us
doing is moving ever more towards the
first of all, illegal aliens count in
the census, so that is going to change
the power dynamic already. Nobody
debates that. Nobody argues whether
illegal aliens count towards the census
or not. So full stop.
The fact that a border town is going to
be more likely to feel the effects of
illegal immigration is well documented.
So you're going to get some of your
biggest pushback there. So it doesn't
surprise me that border towns are voting
for Trump because he was the guy saying,
"I'm going to stop people from coming
in." It also does not surprise
>> Hispanic, though?
>> Yes. Hispanics are like the most hold
the [ __ ] on. Like I came here legally,
you got to like chill this out.
>> Well, but for the the sake of the
argument with illegals and I mean these
are border towns, right? So if if there
are illegal immigrants in these border
towns, most of those people probably
have birthright citizenship if we're
going the Hispanics legally voting,
right?
>> Well, so hold on. Now you're talking
about legal voters because right now if
you have a baby in the United States,
they are immediately a citizen. So if
you're talking about somebody that's,
you know, whatever 18 years down the
road, they're not illegal. So this is
where we really have to get specific
about what exactly we're saying.
But when you start looking at the data,
and I don't want this to be the the full
derail cuz I think we can address this
at the level of thought experiment
rather than getting lost in the weeds,
but just to close the loop, when you
start looking at the data there, that
the people who come here legally resent
the people that are coming illegally.
And so the border towns are often wildly
Hispanic in population, but they're
wildly Hispanic, they've come, they've
integrated to some extent. Uh if they're
the ones picking up the phone and
actually answering the poll questions,
they are likely to be legal at that
point, have legal status of some kind.
Otherwise, they're dodging those [ __ ]
calls. They don't even want you to know
that they exist. And so
the fact that that creates this
appearance that, "Oh, immigrants lean
Trump." is going to give you a very
different picture than people that came
over the border over the last four years
because they see that we have good
services that in places like California
apply even to illegal immigrants. And
the governor of California is making
mouth noises as aggressively as he can
to say, "Not only like we're going to
fight for your rights, we're going to
make sure that you get what you need."
You've got the same thing coming out of
the DSA in New York. to fight for
illegals, whether you're temporary
protected status or not. We're going to
make sure that we protect you from the
recent immigration
um Supreme Court decisions like the So
there's
a complex issue at play. Now, pull back
out to the just what are the likely
um
motivational factors. Like show me the
incentives, I'll show you the outcome.
So, if you have a country that has
incredible
services for people and you just need to
qualify for those services, of course,
if somebody says, "Hey, the wealthiest
nation on planet Earth has open borders,
come on in." You're going to get a lot
of people coming in. We know that
millions of people crossed the border in
the last 4 years alone. And then you
>> What is it? Closed for the last 2 years?
>> The border's been closed for the last 18
months, I'll grant you that. I certainly
won't give you the last 2 years.
>> it's been closed
>> hold on, hold on, hold on.
Ask yourself, "What?"
>> I It's not It hasn't been closed since
the 2000. That's the wildest thing I've
ever heard. That's crazy.
>> [laughter]
>> Wait, it hasn't been closed since 2000?
under Biden. That is true. But acting as
though they completely stopped is a
little It was a little like misleading.
>> I just want everybody to know I just
want Hold on. I want everybody to know
we got here because I asked Tom, "What
data do we have on voter fraud?"
>> Yeah.
>> No, we didn't. That's not why we're
here. What's happening right now?
>> That That was the last thing I said. I
said, "We have data on how many people
can afford housing. We don't have data
on how many illegals are voting."
>> Yes. And the thing that I'm trying to
make abundantly clear for everybody is
you have to tease all of these into
separate things you can talk about. And
I said, "I don't think that we have a
major illegal voter problem. That's not
what I'm worried about. What I'm worried
about is the incentive structure, which
is what I'm walking people through now."
So, this is
we have to take these things one at a
time.
>> Let's take them one at a time.
>> And what ends up happening in all of
these debates is people start conflating
everything. They get lost in the [ __ ]
weeds and they debate [ __ ] rather than
pulling up and going, "What is the
incentive structure? What's the
principle at play here?" And what I'm
saying is, from an incentive structure,
and I'm going to say this as a fact, I'm
not looking for feedback. As a statement
of fact, at least in my universe,
if you give services away for free and
you tell people who live in countries
that cannot get access to services like
that, that live in a country that is
falling apart, that has been torn apart
by
uh drug lords or by
socialism itself. I mean, think about
people
that have fled here from countries that
legitimately their currency is
collapsing, things like that, okay?
They're coming in and it is a
legitimately better life. Now, the
problem is that when you do that,
you have this thing called the census.
The census drives your representation in
Congress and that census does not ask
whether you are here on vacation,
whether you're here legally, whether
you're here illegally. Just says how
many bodies are in the state. That
determines that state's representation
at the national level. So, now you have
an incentive structure for people to
come here to get the free things and
they are going to vote for whoever it is
that's going to give them the free
things that they came for and you have
one party that is beating the drum that,
"Hey, we're going to give you that." So,
we've seen this play out in California.
You can look at the litany of credible
scholars that say the big mistake in
California in terms of it becoming a
one-party state was when Reagan gave
amnesty to all of the immigrants that
had come before. And so, they all
started voting blue because those were
the policies that made the government
bigger, made social services bigger, and
got them a lot of free stuff.
So, now it's like not only do we have
historical evidence that that's exactly
how people end up voting, but we can
follow that chain of logic. And so, what
I'm saying is as you look at the beats
of that chain of logic, you've created
an incentive structure where California
grows more powerful at the national
level the more people that they can get
into the state. And that the people that
get into the state to grant them that
power are incentivized to continue to
vote for them because of the policies
that they're running, which is more tax
dollars, more free things regardless of
status. And so, if you have any concern
at all about this country becoming a
one-party state, which I would have
tremendous fears left or right. I do not
want a one-party state country. That is
exactly how you devolve into madness.
So, we have a grease shoot pipeline that
we watched over the last 4 years
pre-Trump. So, it's not exactly the last
4 years, whatever, going back
a year and a half, the 4 years before.
So, during that period, we had I don't
think anybody's contesting this,
millions of people except for maybe
Ryan, millions of people came across the
border with that incentive structure.
So, now I'm just saying, "Hey,
given that we know
that you have
places like California that are saying,
"We want to get these people legal so
that they can vote." We have places like
Minnesota saying the same thing. You've
got
a national opportunity to say only
citizens can vote. That's how it already
is. Let's just formalize that. Let's
make people prove that they're actually
a citizen.
And that to me is exactly what you need
in order to avoid becoming a one-party
country, which would be, in my opinion,
an absolute catastrophic disaster.
Okay.
That is the cause and effect sequence of
like
logic. Now, if there's a beat of that
logic, not that there's something more
important or whatever, which we can
absolutely talk about after that, but if
there is a beat in that logic where it's
like, "No, that is a fundamentally wrong
assumption." Hit me.
>> A fundamentally wrong assumption. TPS
status was just ended from the Supreme
Court. Birthright citizen is is going to
be ended under Trump.
Um the border
>> But I didn't talk about any of that. So,
what do you mean?
>> You're just saying that a million 2
million people came over the border
illegally. They're going to get amnesty
from like a Reagan
legislation, and that's going to turn
them into citizens. What I'm saying is
that people the
>> Not citizens, but
>> People who can vote.
>> Yes.
>> The people who are now here, who would
be eligible for that? TPS, the TPS
temporary protected status.
>> Some. That's like the people that are on
the radar officially.
>> a fraction of those people. Yes. Those
people are not able to get those get
amnesties. Birthright citizenship. The
second wave of people who are illegals
who come over the border who have babies
and they're now those kids are citizens.
They can then vote 18 years from now.
Even though the housing bill would help
people today,
um we're talking about 18-year problem.
I just want everybody to know that. Um
so that the birthright citizen thing,
that's going to get overturned by Trump
as well.
>> Maybe. We'll see. That hasn't happened
yet.
>> He's four for four on the immigration
with the Supreme Court and the Supreme
Court is mostly conservative. It's a
conservative take.
>> Okay, so wait. Let me What I hear you
saying, correct me if I'm headed in the
wrong direction, is that hey, what's
really going on here is we're solving
the problem by other means. So why put
>> the the amnesty issue fear that you
have, that rate that was true in the
'80s under Reagan or '70s,
um is not true currently because the
Supreme Court leans right and the right
policy that is leading that Supreme
Court
>> Was my summation incorrect in some way?
>> Yes, because your fear of the his of the
his history repeating is not repeating
cuz we're breaking those things that
would allow
>> That's what I just said. So here's what
I hear you saying.
>> Okay.
>> That Tommy, you don't need to worry
about this because the problem is being
solved by another method.
>> Yeah, and I was listing those methods,
yeah.
>> Yeah, yeah, but I'm just saying there's
nothing wrong with what I hear you
saying, correct? That is what you're
saying. So I don't believe in any way,
shape or form that that is going to
clean up everything.
And I don't see why we wouldn't just
say, hey, given that
you it's already the law that only
citizens can vote, why would we not want
people to prove that they are in fact a
citizen?
>> This is now we're moving to a second
point cuz we finished our first point.
>> That That's That's my whole point.
>> Your initial fear was that the illegals
that crossed the border will get amnesty
and then they will do that.
>> Yeah, that is that is
>> So we just solved that that's not going
to happen.
>> that we're trying No, no, we didn't.
What I'm saying is I hear you saying
that and I'm saying it won't be
effective. So let's say that that mops
up
some percentage. It's unknown. I could
give you an answer, but it would be
completely made up. But, it seems like
the um
in your mind, the base assumption that
you're running is that these new Supreme
Court decisions clean up 100% of that
problem. And my belief is not only is
that not true, that I don't even think
that the government has any sense of
exactly how many people have come in.
So, people that have a formal status
like temporary protective services, um
yeah, those are status. Those people are
recognized. And if you were saying,
"Man, I really hate that the people who
did the right thing by actually coming
in and saying, 'Oh, you have this TPS
thing. I would like to take advantage of
that.'" Um and those are the ones that
we're booting out first, I get why that
would rub you the wrong way.
>> But, for the Supreme Court, they also
got asylum seekers, people who came in
through the border, who came over the
border, who then said, "Now, we just
came in over border. Now, we're seeking
asylum. We're in these attention
centers." Those also high profile
>> So, but for you, what percentage of all
the people that have come across the
border
uh for decades, what percentage do you
think get cleaned up by that?
>> It's the same answer that you just said.
I can't give you an answer cuz it'll be
arbitrary.
>> Sure, but if if at least we understand
that you think that percentage, the way
you're looking at me is as if you think
that percentage is like dangerously
close to 100%.
>> Cuz I'm looking at you because you said
you your biggest fear at the start of
this conversation, part the part three
of the conversation, was that amnesty
for asylum seekers that then converted
into voting members of the populace.
That was your biggest fear. And I'm
saying there are Supreme Court decisions
that are happening now
>> Mhm.
>> that are making sure asylum seekers are
sent back.
>> we got to that part. So, where where you
and I are disconnecting is on our base
assumption about what percentage of the
problem that cleans up. I'm getting to
that.
>> you're only saying 10% of that cleans
up. There's still 90% of people that to
be
>> Yeah, that's ballpark. I don't have the
data, but
>> So then those 90 people are now coming
in illegally. They didn't get any
government services cuz if you got to
government services, you'll be on one of
these logs.
>> They do get government services
depending on what state they're
>> But they'll they'll have to be on those
logs though. So that's what I'm saying.
So you
>> What do you mean?
>> On one hand, you can't say that they're
getting government services, but the
government doesn't know who they are. If
they're getting government services,
they have to register as
illegal. And then if they're registering
as an illegal, then they are then being
identified
>> we've just encountered another base
assumption. So one, I think there's
going to be plenty of identity theft
that exists in that.
Uh where people are using social
security numbers that don't belong to
them. And then two, you've got um people
that like in a in California or
Minnesota or increasingly New York where
they are actively trying to make
services available to people that don't
have any kind of documentation at all.
So now
uh we run the risk of now fractaling
over into another problem which is
are illegal immigrants actually
contributing more than they take and all
that stuff which we can't talk about.
I've done a whole video on, but is all
of that stuff we don't need to litigate
each one of those points when the
reality is we can find the terminal
thing that we disagree on which is you
think either the problem isn't a big
deal or maybe it's even just that people
should be able to come here. Um or the
problem is already cleaned up by these
Supreme Court decisions. And so if our
terminal collision where we go, "Okay,
cool. I understand your position. I
disagree which is perfectly fine. I'm
actually not trying to convince you. I'm
just trying to tell you what my position
is." So if you're like, "I think this
cleans up the vast majority of something
that already isn't really a big
problem." That's what I hear you saying.
And so that to me, if I'm doing theory
of mind, I'm like, "Oh, I understand why
you think what you think." Because I
think your argument goes like this.
They're holding up affordability,
housing affordability which is a far
more important issue, and it's immediate
because you were like, this other thing
is like an 18-year project. Like, what
the [ __ ] are we even talking about? So,
you've got this immediate thing that
could alleviate a real pain point.
And so, I don't even know why Tom is
making me [ __ ] talk about this. This
is ridiculous. And so, it's a
non-problem to start, and it's already
being cleaned up by this other thing.
And so, that's like, cool. I can lay out
your string of logic. It has internal
consistency. I just disagree with
multiple base assumptions that you have.
>> That it will get cleaned up. That the
Supreme Court is going to do his job.
That the
>> I don't think those things will have the
impact that you think they will have.
And so, if you were to map me, just as I
can't point at you and go, "Oh, that's
an inconsistent string of logic."
You, I don't think, can point at me and
go, "That's inconsistent." I'm not being
inconsistent. You just don't agree with
the base assumptions that my argument
rides on top of.
>> Got it. Okay, that's fair.
>> And so, at that point, we go, "Cool. We
understand each other, and we don't
agree." And that's perfectly fine. To
me, that's what people should be trying
to do is say, "What does that person
actually think?" And this will be for
people that stay with us into the extra
innings today, one of the things I'm
going to be talking about with Chevalier
is that she will not tell you her actual
string of logic. She's a brilliant
politician. Holy Jesus. But, she's not
going to actually tell you the string of
logic. And so, you're going to have a
very hard time following her on purpose
so that she can keep you in the realm of
emotional reasoning rather than go,
"Wait a second. Now that I know what
your base assumption is, I can say I
disagree with that wholeheartedly." So,
when you understand somebody, and you
can identify like what the base
assumption is that you disagree on, then
you can like drill into that, and then
you can have a debate.
So, what I hope we have effectively done
here is lay out why we each think the
other person is crazy, but I don't think
that you're inconsistent. Your argument
has internal logic. I can follow it. You
were able to articulate it. I can say it
back to you in a way that you recognize.
And so it's like, yeah, cool. I We just
disagree. That's where now the debate
could live somewhere fruitful. I think
it would be bad TV, and I'm sure we'll
do it another day, but it's like now you
can get into, okay, cool. That's what we
have to argue. We have to get into what
is the Supreme Court decision actually
going to do? How many people are
actually here? Are they getting access
to these things at home worries about or
not? Will they actually be able to vote
or is this [ __ ]
>> No, I'm not I'm not disputing that
they're getting access to, so I'm not I
think
>> I'm just saying, now we know where the
point of real conflict is and we can go
ham on that stuff because now we're down
into values, we're into cause and
effect. Once you're at values and cause
and effect, great. Part of what I think
is valuable about this show is that you
and I we overlap on values enough that
um and I'll only speak for myself, I
have tremendous respect for you. So, I
like hearing the things that you think
I'm wrong about. It helps me sharpen my
own thinking. I'm never trying to
convert you over to my value system
because I think that you're an
intelligent, well-intentioned person
who's close enough to the middle that
I'm like, yeah, if we had to hand over
the country to you, you would 10 years
from now, I would still recognize the
country, still be stoked to live here.
So, like that's the perfect kind of
person that I want to debate with.
Uh so,
if as a if as a show we can bring that
to people and show people, look, find
out their base assumptions, figure out
what they are. Do they have internal
logic that coheres or not? If not, then
you can say you're not making any sense.
If yes, then it's like pull forward the
base assumption where you collide and
say, is this values or is this cause and
effect? If it's cause and effect, then
we can do a historical essay essentially
and look backwards and go, okay, what
would a historical audit of that belief
tell us, right? Which is exactly what
I'll do when we talk about Chevalier and
Hassan. It's like, I'm just going to run
a historical audit of their belief
system and go, "Well, how does this
[ __ ] play out?" And so, that's super
fruitful. Everybody can make progress.
You can find your way forward. So, from
that perspective, this to me is a great
example of you set out the base
assumptions, and now you can go deep
into those. With how long we've already
talked about this, we won't be doing
that today, but
that I think is very
>> thing I'm contractually obligated to
say.
Martin Luther King wasn't killed because
he set black people free or gave them
voting rights. Martin Luther King was
killed because he started to talk about
poor white people, poor gays, poor black
people, and how we're all fighting the
same thing.
>> That's right.
>> Right now, we are talking about illegals
that are quite possibly here. We don't
have a number, we don't have a percent,
we don't have data, we don't have
anything to actually show it. All we
have is Elon Musk retweets, we have
boxes in the back of a van, and we have
California and we have Spencer Pratt
bitching on Twitter.
>> So, here's
>> actual people who can't afford houses.
We have actual people who are on the
streets. We have actual people who are
working middle class. You work You have
You and your girl both working, you got
two kids, but you're stuck in an
apartment. This bill will get you into a
house. But no, because we have to stop
this thing that we can't quantify, point
out, talk about, or present. So, as much
as I I am with everybody, I want
everybody to thrive, I want everybody to
have a good life, but please don't
sacrifice your opportunity and your good
life for the boogeyman that somebody
else is telling you is coming and it's
on its way and it's coming to take your
stuff. Cuz you don't have stuff now. So,
don't fall for the fact that they're
coming to take your stuff. You don't
have the stuff now.
>> Okay. I'm contractually obligated to say
the following.
Please understand that your ability to
accumulate wealth is on the other side
of making sure that only citizens vote.
And if you make the mistake of following
allowing people that have an incentive
structure to pillage your economy, you
will find yourself being unable to
afford anything. And so, if you want to
see it all go to hell in a handbasket,
then
feel that because the economy is broken
for a reason that has nothing to do with
what we're talking about right now,
uh that you're going to vote to let more
people in, not understanding exactly how
this going to play out from a cause and
effect. Now, everything that you want,
including affordable housing, is
downstream of who you let vote and what
their incentive uh for what they vote
for,
uh all of that is going to be determined
by who ends up being able to cast a
ballot. Okay. Uh with that, now to talk
directly about affordable housing, I
will say this, you have to fix
affordable housing. If you don't, you're
dead in the water. And so, if Trump is
dumb enough to actually let this bill
die,
uh yeah, he's There's no universe in
which he or anybody that's ever known
him uh is going to get reelected. So,
you have one of the biggest problems
that you have right now is you have
through
banking and politicians deficit
spending, you know the drill, you have
made houses unaffordable because houses
are an asset and they inflate like mad
as you run the inflationary uh regime
that we are running right now. But, that
is a banker-politician problem. So,
bankers-politicians have created a
wealth siphon
through which they steal wealth from
everybody, the rich, the poor alike, but
they only give back in a way that
benefits people who understand assets.
So, those people just get richer and
richer.
Okay. So, given that, what do you have
to do to solve the housing affordability
problem? Is it that you freeze rents
like they have done in New York? And I
will say, if that's your hypothesis,
every hypothesis makes a prediction. So,
if you think freezing rents is actually
going to make rents cheaper, then I
would say, do a historical survey and
see if that ended up being true. Where
rents were frozen, did rents get cheaper
or did they go up? And the answer is,
this experiment was actually run in New
York in the '60s and '70s. And what
ended up happening was the Bronx turned
into a third world country where the
building owners
burned the buildings down because it was
easier to get the insurance money than
to try to upkeep the building because
buildings are a business. And once you
try to control prices, remember the
president of Cuba just admitted trying
to control prices from the top doesn't
work. It's ends up creating shortages,
okay? Somehow people think because
housing is a {quote} {unquote} right
right, which is already absurd, but they
think that it's not a business somehow.
It is a business. And so it requires all
kinds of upkeep, which costs all kinds
of money because nobody works for free
and you're just as impacted by inflation
and things like that as anybody else. So
as you're running your business of
owning a building, you've got to be able
to do what you think is right to keep
that business afloat. And if you're not
good at the business of running the
building, then you will go broke, you
will lose the building, and somebody
else will get it. So
when we ran this experiment in the very
city that's trying to run it now, the
the result was so catastrophic
that whatever 20 years later, they
unwound virtually all of it.
So we see this play out time and time
again. Freezing rents is stupid. It is
exactly the same as trying to control
the prices at the grocery store or as
Trump is trying to do now at the gas
pump. It's completely asinine. It
doesn't work. History is abundantly
clear on this. What you do need to do is
build. Now, that's why I'm excited about
the very imperfect
bill that's being put forward that is
far far far better than what we have
now. So if you really want to help
people and you really want to make
housing affordable, the only question
you have to ask is
do you let landlords charge whatever
they think is right so that we're not
freezing rents and making things worse.
And do you let people build build build
build build because what you need is
more inventory. Once you have more
inventory, then all of the sudden the
prices come down. It really is, I know
that this is one of those things that's
so simple that people lose sight of it.
It is just supply and demand. And so, if
you artificially limit supply, which you
do through rent freezes, rent controls,
et cetera, et cetera, the prices don't
go down, they go up. Fewer people can
actually cuz you can just keep the
price. Let's say you just keep the
price. Cool. Then you create a black
market, and so people will start
subletting and things like that to try
to turn a profit. They're not supposed
to, it's illegal, but they'll do it
anyway, which we see over and over and
over, because that property becomes so
much more valuable because the supply is
artificially constrained because the
business owners can't make money and or
they're not even allowed to build. And
so, now you're in a position where
you've disincentivized investment
because they know that you'll put them
in a trap where they can't afford to run
that business of owning the building.
And you put them in a position where
uh they don't want to build because they
don't want to end up in that state. If
they do end up in that state, they can't
take care of the building anyway. And in
New York right now, they're threatening
to confiscate the buildings if people
can't uh upkeep them to the level that
they decide. So, it's complete and utter
madness.
And that's why I'm saying all of this
stuff is downstream of what you vote
for.
So, be very careful what you vote for.
>> Can I also clarify so my chat my ass
doesn't get eaten up in the comments, my
stance? I was including title 42
expulsions, chat.
>> [laughter]
>> In in my argument. If we're just talking
pure deportation with actual legal
crime, like yes, that Biden era is
lower. But I included title 42 because
Trump enacted it and Biden carried it on
until he had to rerun and wanted to look
better for the left.
That was my claim.
But just to clarify for the chat. Are we
hitting the Supreme Court or is that
getting cut for time and we can move on?
>> Nah, let's go.
>> Okay.
>> [laughter]
>> Uh all right.
>> No, do you You to do super chats first
or what?
>> Um I'll come back to super chat. Super
chats, I love you guys. We'll be here
for a third hour. Hang out.
>> [laughter]
>> Uh, okay, there has been um, four
Supreme Court decisions that have been
passed down. Um, this is from The Midas
Touch. They just listed them all out one
by one. Um,
number one, Monsanto versus Donnell. The
court ruled that Monsanto was shielded
from cancer victims suing over Roundup.
Federal pesticide laws block states from
requiring cancer warnings on label.
Uh, number two, Wilford versus Lopez.
The court struck down Hawaii's law
requiring permission to bring guns into
private property that is open to the
public like stores, restaurants, and
hotels. Number three, Mullen versus Al
Otro Lado. Asylum seekers stopped at the
border are turned back in Mexico. The
court says you haven't arrived in
America yet, so no right to apply for
asylum. This was the thing I was talking
about earlier. And number four, Mullen
versus Doe. The conservative majority
ruled that the Trump administration can
end temporary protected statuses for
migrants fleeing violence and natural
disasters in Haiti and Syria. These were
the people that had that downloaded the
app that wanted to come over.
>> And you're saying they it's unfair that
they get grabbed when they did things
the right way.
>> I did I did not say that. No.
>> No, no. So, what do you mean by these
are the guys that downloaded the app?
>> The TPS status is connected to the app
when they were
>> Then why bring up the app? There's a
reason you made those sounds.
>> The app is to people that to deduce
between who's an illegal alien who
crossed the border and what this
temporary protected status means.
Cuz for temporary protected status, you
have to apply, you download the app.
Those are the people that came over. No,
it all is
>> I'm just uh, uh,
my base assumption is that you brought
that up for a specific reason to make a
point that these guys are in a different
class. If it was purely meant as
>> Um, trust me, Brian. I'm not trying to
get you.
>> No, no. I don't think that's any of me
at all.
>> yeah. I wasn't trying to yeah.
>> So, it I I have a base assumption.
People make sounds with their mouth
specifically to communicate something. I
find that they sometimes don't know why
they're making those sounds to
communicate it.
Um, it's entirely possible that I'm
reading you wrong, but here's um
doesn't matter. Cool. Misunderstood.
Here here is um what I will say about
temporary protected status is obviously
it is inherently temporary. So, if it
was meant to be a this is temporary
because we expect 100% of you to be
migrated over to full-time status,
then I would get why people feel
betrayed. I don't know enough about the
actual definition of what TPS is
designed for,
um but clearly it is not meant to be a
permanent status. So, if this is the
Supreme Court ruling that hey,
regardless of what you originally wanted
TPS to be, this is something that should
be given back to the executive branch.
It is meant to be temporary and so
anybody that comes in on TPS, they're
going to be eventually handed to the
executive branch for them to make a
decision about. Cool. That is exactly
what we put the uh Supreme Court in
place to do. Um so, that one I have no
beef with. Now, the Monsanto one is
horrifying. And so, I yeah, I think this
is bad. And what's crazy is I think the
Trump administration uh under uh Kennedy
would be the first to admit that you
want vaccine makers to be able to be
sued for creating health problems. So,
why the actual [ __ ] would you not be
consistent and say, "Yeah, you can't
have people using chemicals that
knowingly cause cancer." And if you're
saying like let's be the most charitable
that we can be. I do not think this is
true, but just being psychotically
charitable. If you're like, "We won't be
able to produce enough food to have
caloric security for our population
unless we use this thing that is a slow,
long-term carcinogenic."
Uh so, yeah, we just can't have people
suing because this is the only way to
support this population. That would be
like the only plausible argument. But
even then, I think you have a moral
obligation to say, "Hey, we're going to
use it, but the cancer uh warning is
like the biggest thing on the bag." Much
like with smoking, where you can't look
at a [ __ ] pack of smokes without
seeing like a black lung, right? So,
yes, because I don't want somebody who's
working on a farm to not realize that
this thing is cancer-causing. I want
them to be able to take all kinds of
precautions, up to and including going
to their employer and saying, "If you
don't give me one of those radioactive
jump suits every time I'm out in the
field, you can [ __ ] right off." Yeah,
I'd be all for that. Dope, love it. So,
um on this, I think it's crazy. You
should be able to sue, because again,
that was me being obscenely charitable.
I think the reality is this is just the
uh big ag or whatever we're going to
call Monsanto
having the political capital and dollars
to be able to get people to go, "Yeah,
no, that makes sense. Cool. Don't tell
anybody that this is
uh a carcinogen. Just keep putting it on
everything." Uh I think it's a terrible
[ __ ] idea. And it's stuff like this.
I I just There's no way that Kennedy uh
is on board with this. So, I'd be very
curious to hear the internal
uh machinations of like what that's
like. But anyway, that one seems stupid.
I don't know what the um the actual
angle. I'd have to read the Supreme
Court decision to see what they're
queuing off of.
Uh but yeah, on that one, I think people
should be able to sue.
>> This is from Thomas Massie. Uh this is
correct. I attended the Supreme Court
arguments. Trump's DOJ argued alongside
Bayer and Monsanto that because the EPA
has already blessed gl- gl- glyphosate
glyphosate, no state government could
require labels disclosing cancer risk.
The EPA and DOJ in this instance was
only there to protect Bayer.
And they He retweeted somebody that was
MW4 Liberty. "Today's ruling in favor of
Monsanto proves that I what I've said
for a long time. Government agencies
don't protect citizens from large
corporations, rather they protect large
corporations from citizens. Our
government is illegitimate, and no, your
side is not going to fix it.
>> I definitely agree with their lessons.
So, here here is the bad news.
Government itself is
I mean this as an analogy
that by its truth will be an indictment,
but the out of context phrase I'm about
to say is going to seem like I'm trying
to be provocative. I'm not trying to be
provocative with what I'm about to say.
I'm trying to draw parallel to something
else that behaves in a similar fashion.
The government is like a cancer.
The cancer
quickly realizes it needs to pull all
resources to itself. This is how cancer
actually works.
And then it tries to wall itself off
through literal molecular signaling to
tell the immune system, you dear voters,
"I'm not the problem. Ignore me, move on
to the next guy."
And then it will often like build a
capsule around itself so that the immune
system can't get in and kill it, which
is precisely what it's meant to do. So,
the cancer pulls blood vessels to it,
encapsulates itself, signals that
everything is fine, and tries to grow as
big as it can. And the very mechanism
that makes it cancer is that the cells
no longer have a self-destruct
mechanism. So, every cancerous cell
should detect, "Oh [ __ ] I'm cancer."
and self-destruct, blow apart. That's
how it's programmed. This is how you
live and, you know, for as many times as
your cells divide,
most people don't get cancer until
they're very, very old. So, it's really
the body has extraordinary ways of
dealing with this. And one of the scary,
but sort of fascinating things about
human biology is all of us have a tiny
bit of cancer in us all the time. But
the immune system tracks it down and
kills it. So,
when the cancer gets to the point where
it no longer has a self-regulating
mechanism
to stay small, and it hides and
obfuscates and lies to the immune
system, pulls resources to itself and
grows and grows and grows, that's when
it becomes a problem. We are officially
in that stage where the government is
simply trying to get as big as it can
for the sake of getting bigger, where
you had Biden presenting all the jobs
that they had hired people into the
government for as if that was somehow a
win, even though the government um does
not generate revenue, it only spends.
But the wild thing is the dumb way that
we count GDP, that actually gets
counted. not.
But nonetheless, so we're that's where
we're at. Now, my whole thesis is people
are confusing this moment where the
government has truly become
definitionally cancerous. Again, not
trying to be provocative, trying to use
an analogy of what it's doing. It has
become cancerous where it's grow at all
costs, get as big as you can, pull as
many resources in as you can. There's
never too much tax dollars, just more,
more, more.
Uh and we're confusing that with
free market capitalism is broken.
But you've got Trump breaking free
market capitalism in his way. Thomas
Massie had another banger uh accusing
Trump of communism.
>> Suited up.
>> Very accurate. That's the terrifying
part. Uh so, if we cannot recognize that
the government behaves in the same way
that a cancer behaves, and that's why
when people vote for bigger government,
more services, I'm going to have a
knee-jerk reaction that it's a terrible
idea. I don't care if it's coming from
the right or from the left. Because the
very thing that America is getting sick
from is that cancer. So, we're confusing
it with something else as people often
do. They don't realize that the thing
that's making their back hurt is
actually lung cancer. Um they're
completely confused by it until it's far
too late. And so, that's the phase of
America that we're in. Now, there are
treatments that can cure us from that
cancer, but boy, oh boy, people instead
want to drink apple juice like my man
Steve Jobs and they just [ __ ] die.
So,
unfortunately, that's the path that
we're choosing to take right now. We
don't have to and hopefully there's
intervention, there's plenty of time and
we can all back us off.
Uh but currently we're not. So, with
that Thomas Massie, take it away.
>> Republicans decrying communist
involvement in the Democratic Party just
look the other way when this
administration nationalized ownership of
these private companies. Intel 10%, MP
Materials 15%, Lithium Americas 5%,
Trilogy Metals 10%, and US D.O. {quote}
"golden share".
>> Yep, this is all obscene.
Now, here's where this one gets super
[ __ ] weird. So, let me be very clear.
This is obscene.
Trump should not do this.
This is
the American economy with Chinese
characteristics.
And I say that a little tongue-in-cheek,
but it's literally
the American economy with Chinese
characteristics. Uh this is Trump
saying,
"You know what? The government should
really be involved uh with keeping these
companies going. And you know, let's
make sure that the American people
benefit from it."
And so we're going to give them a piece.
Now, at a high level, that sounds
lovely. The American people should
benefit from the companies that we're
building,
uh especially in a time where people are
not able to make ends meet because of
the hideous banking and politician um
cabal that is here to destroy middle
America um and anybody that doesn't own
assets. So,
all of that is just patently ridiculous.
We should not want him to do that.
We should vote him out of office for
doing it. We should not elect people
that want to do it.
Now, having said all of that, there's a
difference between China now and Cuba.
And oh god,
if we keep going in this direction, the
thought that in 2028 we're going to be
voting for it, do we want to be more
like China or more like Cuba? That is
[ __ ] wild. We should want to be more
like America. Unfortunately though,
there's a really big difference between
China and Cuba.
And so, this is where I know no one is
going to understand my take on this, but
it looks like this.
This is corrupt. This is horrible.
It's not corrupt. He does corrupt
things. This just isn't one of them.
This is um self-defeating. It robs us
even farther of the free market. Um it
is
just
Here's what's running in Trump's mind.
I'm mind reading, which means that I'm
not going to be 100% correct, but the
reason that I say this is the US economy
with Chinese characteristics is Xi is
he understands
because of what China went through that
you can't do Cuba. Cuba kills people.
So, you've got to do something
different. He looked at America and
said,
"Whatever you guys are doing is working.
We want to do some of that." Technically
it was Deng Xiaoping. Anyway, Xi's the
keeper of the sepulcher now or the
scepter now. So, he says, "We're going
to keep doing this. We need free market
capitalism. We need people to be able to
get wealthy." Remember, remember, China
has more inequality than America.
So,
we're going to allow people to get
wealthy so that we can pull people out
of poverty. And everybody, rightly, says
that China has pulled more people out of
poverty than any other country in
history. It's extraordinary. What China
did is patently extraordinary.
And
the bad news is
that they didn't give up the
authoritarian rule to do it.
So, they've built this way of
negotiating against the rest of the
world for dominance.
And in doing so, they've created
basically a new kind of economy that we
call communism with Chinese
characteristics.
Now,
it's ironically the reverse of the
American economy with Chinese
characteristics. So, China is trying to
run it like a communist dictatorship,
very light on communism, very heavy on
dictatorship,
uh very pro free markets. The US is the
opposite. Our base state is a free
market, and now we're layering some of
the communism dictatorship on top, where
we're saying, "No, we we are going to
start from the top down saying what
companies live and what companies die."
Because make no mistake, if you own 10%
of Intel and Intel's in trouble, then
you're going to make sure that they get
the loans or the bailout or whatever
they need. Uh because the American
people are tied up in it, and that will
be the excuse, and that will be how you
get Americans to be like, "Yeah, I own
10% of that." Uh because that's
effectively part of our national
uh our sovereign wealth fund. So,
people will actually now think that
they're able to pick winners and losers,
and slowly over time you will lose
competition, and your once beautiful
free market capitalism calcifies into
[ __ ] and you just can't understand
how you're now uh failing in the world.
But that's how it's going to play out.
Okay, but we really do have to
differentiate between
what China learned and how they pulled
themselves out of unimaginable grinding
poverty, killing 45 million of their own
people by starving them to death.
That's the Cuba model.
And the model where they realize, "Okay,
we have to have free market capitalism.
We have to let inequality grow because
some people are just more talented at
making money than other people. Uh but
we're going to keep control of it, so
that we can get everybody to work in a
coordinated fashion, which is why it
works so effectively on the world stage.
So, it is far better than what the DSA
is clamoring for. So, I will continue to
draw a line between what
the DSA is calling for and the
Cuba-style danger that that is because
it will break the engine of prosperity
for reasons we'll go into later
versus this where China's showing you
you create a very fragile style of
government because once they're wrong,
oh [ __ ] all hell can break loose.
But you do realize that you have to let
people get wealthy, you have to foster
innovation, you have to scale your
economy, you have to grow your way out
of problems. And once they realize that,
they became a behemoth. So, now I would
much rather see us be American. Lean
into the things that make America great.
Actual freedoms, freedom of speech,
freedom for people to make a decision on
what company they want to run. Let
people vote with their own dollars and
their own feet versus the government
trying to create a sovereign wealth fund
out of companies. What they should be
doing is creating, hey, you're born,
awesome. You're now invested in the US
stock market as a whole. Like an S&P 500
where you qualify and you're on the
list. If you don't qualify, you're off
the list and that's just constantly
being updated
and every American is invested in the
American stock market. That would
suddenly make people care very much
about the
whether the US economy is thriving and
growing, but they won't care about any
one company and that is precisely where
you want them to be.
>> Um that reminds me of a Peter Thiel
three tweet or email that he sent out
Mark Zuckerberg into the like Facebook
team.
>> Years ago.
>> Uh Nick, I certainly would not suggest
that our policy should be to embrace
millennial attitudes unreflectively. I
would be the last person to advocate for
socialism, but when 70% of millennials
say they are pro-socialist, we need to
do better than simply dismiss them by
saying they are stupid or entitled or
brainwashed. We should try and
understand why. And from that and from
the perspective of a broken generational
compact, there seems to be a pretty
straightforward answer to me. Namely,
that when one has too much student debt
or if housing is too unaffordable, then
one will have a negative capital for a
long time or find it very hard to start
accumulating capital in form of in the
form of real estate. And if one has no
stake in the capitalist system, then one
may well turn against it. And I feel
like we keep thinking that these commies
are coming out of the ground and they're
like, "Ooh." Like they're the boogeyman.
So, it is all cause and effect. A wise
man once told me that. So, if enough
people don't get stuck get starved out
when too many people get hungry, they
start to get a little bit anxious.
Um and last thing about that, the
American dream
was not in the Constitution. Founding
fathers didn't say it. It was a mortgage
marketing campaign started in the '60s.
So, the reason it caught fire was
because now you're part of the American
dream, you're bought in, you got a piece
of America, you are now team America,
and that immediately stopped the wave of
like communism. It's It's because I when
I'm a part of the system, I care about
the system. When I'm not a part of the
system I don't care about the system.
So, I think we need to stop just there's
other mechanisms that we can do that I
think will directly tie to the result of
this.
>> Yeah, I agree wholeheartedly. So, it's
interesting to see somebody who is so
hated um say what is one of countless
things that he said that are absolutely
brilliant. And this is why I'm saying,
yeah, this is all cause and effect. We
have to be able to map it out. The
problem is the energy on the left is the
DSA, which is literally a suicide pact
economically. Um and
if we go in that direction, we will make
this worse. Now, this is where I just
wish I could get people to read about
history. Um read about the French
Revolution. It It is the most
eye-opening thing in the world. Because
guess who doesn't rise up?
The working class that is supposedly
being the most abused. Guess who does
rise up? Overproduction of elites. The
people who grew up believing, "I'm going
to be part of the elite class. I should
be rich. I should be powerful. And I'm
not. I'm on the outside of the system.
And so I'm going to take it down.
Once you realize that, oh, this is the
overeducated person that cannot find
that power or position that they thought
they were going to have because we have
so many people falling into that class.
And revolutions tend to start not at the
moment where things are the worst. They
tend to start as things start getting
better, but the people still don't feel
like we have met their expectations. And
when you hear their expectations, which
are patently absurd, I'm talking
specifically about the DSA, um that's
when you realize, oh, yeah, they're
going to come for your necks. The
problem is, just like in France, they
don't end up building something
beautiful on the back of that. They end
up waging a war all across Europe
because they were just killing each
other so much that the crazy strong man
known as Napoleon comes in and is like,
oh, I know what to do with these guys.
And he points them at Europe and tries
to confiscate all of Europe's land and
wealth because once people turn
murderous, man, it is hard to turn off.
So, because it is born of resentment, it
is a such a negative like
constructive way of viewing the world.
And so it's wild hearing people like
Chevalier talk about we need something
of hope and promise. It's like, that's
not what's on offer. So,
we have to be very cognizant of what
actually causes people to feel iced out.
The baseline answer is they don't own
assets. And whenever you're running an
inflationary regime, if people do not
own assets, they will get poorer.
And that is what people are responding
to. Now, why houses become a thing is
not because they're an asset per se.
It's because it is the only asset that
when a man and a woman are doing the
mating dance, that the woman is going to
pressure the man to buy a house and both
of them completely understand it as this
is a valuable thing and it's a valuable
thing that I really want. Now, the great
irony is the reason that Pokémon cards
have performed so incredibly well as an
asset class is it is a thing that people
have an emotion pulled towards because
of nostalgia and they know that it's
valuable and it goes up in value and
they can buy it for cheap. If houses
were working as they should, Pokémon
would cease to exist. That is where
people go when they want a thing that
they have an emotional response to that
they can buy that happens to become an
investment.
Humans are emotional creatures. You buy
a Pokémon card because you have an
emotional response to it and it can make
you wealthy. You buy a house because you
have an emotional response to it and it
can make you wealthy or at least allow
you to store money.
It is the one asset you cannot break.
You cannot break houses. Houses cannot
become unaffordable. Now, I don't think
people understand what happened after
World War and so people will often bring
it up as like, "Look, we got everything
right and now we're a bunch of morons."
It is it was a very different time. It
is a great way to test to see what would
your philosophy have looked like back
then and to ask, "Do you have the same
setup that we had after World War II?"
Uh but people are really going to have
to get deft like if we actually want to
cause and effect our way out of these
problems, you have to understand why
things worked so well in the '50s and
'60s and why this moment is not like the
'50s and '60s. We have a different
problem, but we can learn a lot by why
things felt so good. Namely, that people
were getting in real terms, they were
getting wealthier.
It is not because we had a 91
percent top tax rate, which is what
people will tell you. And I will just
remind people on a per taxpayer basis,
on a per taxpayer basis,
we collect more money now by a lot than
we did with the 91% top top tax rate.
So, you're going to have to [ __ ]
contend with that if you're going to try
to say this is a tax problem. This is
not a [ __ ] tax problem. This is a
spending to revenue problem. It's
spending problem. It's spending problem.
You've doubled the amount that you spend
at the federal level almost like 94% in
the last 10 years, and it's not making
things better. It's making things worse.
So, anyway, uh
we can go down why the '50s and '60s
were so dope, and they were dope, and we
should try to mimic as many of those
things as we can, but right now let's
just stay focused on the housing.
It becomes the American dream not
because it has a good marketing
campaign. The marketing campaign worked
because you have a real thing. You have
an emotional pull to buy that asset. I
lived through this myself. I did not
want to buy an apartment.
But, my wife really wanted one, and I
wanted to get laid. And so, I ended up
putting myself out way over my skis,
getting one of those adjustable rate
mortgages, all of that [ __ ] dangerous
as the day is long, but I did it because
I wanted to impress my wife. And so,
that dynamic is insanely powerful
because it accidentally puts you into
assets, and right now that's what we're
lacking.
>> Cool.
Um moving on, the Strait of Hormuz that
was wide open, um just shut down a boat.
Um the plan to get thousands of stranded
sailors out of the Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz got frozen after a cargo ship was
hit near Oman. The IMO has spent days
working on it out a safe corridor along
the Omani coast for the hundreds of
ships stuck in the Gulf since February.
Then the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely
got struck 7.5 nautical miles off of the
heat, and the whole thing was paused
until further notice. The heat came
hours after Tehran told ships to stay
off any route it hasn't signed off on.
Over 100 days stuck in the Gulf, and the
wait out lasted no more than a few.
And then these are some of the
threats that potential vessels have to
worry about. Unmanned aerial vessels,
naval mines, shore-based anti-ship
missiles, and then unmanned surface
vessels. They got drone boats, which is
crazy.
>> Yeah.
Yeah, so here's the bad news. The Strait
of Hormuz is going to open and close,
open and close
for the foreseeable future. Um
everything that I see in the MOU,
everything that I hear coming directly
from the Iranians, tells me we are not
going to get to the end of the 60 days
and have an agreement, and everything's
going to be hunky-dory.
I don't even think we're going to get to
the end of the 60 days with everything
negotiated, not by a long stretch.
Again, I think they are just trying to
uh defang Trump by getting him to the
midterms, making sure that he loses the
Senate and or the Senate and Congress,
uh and then they'll know that he'll be
impeached and that he's just going to
have a much harder time getting any
legislation done, that Republicans who
want to get elected in 2028 are going to
start pushing away from him. So, he'll
end up being a lame duck for the last 2
years. That's, in my opinion, obviously,
the playbook that they're running. Uh
they are just blatantly saying Trump is
saying things that just simply aren't
true. Trump isn't saying, they're saying
things that just simply aren't true. But
what I see, the evidence is, America is
negotiating from a place of weakness. If
for no other reason than through
asymmetrical warfare, they can shut down
the strait at any time, and they now
have the um
the balls, just the willingness to do
it. Historically, there's always been
enough international pressure where Iran
didn't do it, nobody else was doing it
cuz there are several of these straits.
And so, now it's like Iran is going,
"Hey, Oman, listen, you control your
side, we'll control our side. We got
this whole thing, we're the most narrow
part. Uh and so we'll will able to
patrol the entire strait.
Oh, and by the way, dear Gulf countries,
if you guys want in on this, get in on
it. We'll give you a taste. They want to
make sure that they control it. Why do
they want to control it? They want the
US out of the region. So, they want to
isolate Israel. They want to become the
ones running the area. And guess who, by
the way, they put in charge of this
growing coalition? The Pakistanis. Why
the Pakistanis? They are both Islamic
and nuclear-armed. So, now it's like,
what do you think the Iranians are going
to do if they can actually get the US
out? They're going to rebuild their
nuclear program. And so, this will all
have been for naught. I mean, maybe we
pushed back their nuclear ambition by a
few years. But, yeah, these guys are
going to do their thing. And if the US
actually ends up backing out of the
region,
ooh, buddy. Uh this will obviously have
been just an absolutely catastrophic
failure of untold proportions. It
becomes our Suez Canal moment. We become
a regional power in our hemisphere, and
that's sort of that. And you're done and
dusted. So, that is certainly the track
that we're on right now.
>> Um resident black pilled er, Pat black
pilled er, and friend of the show, Simon
Dixon, said the real fight we just was
played by the GCC and Iran. They were
working toward the same regional end
game all along, enabled by the Saudi
Iran normalization brokered by China and
reinforced by the broader BRICS sent uh
transition. The war was the theater. The
regional realignment was the strategy.
My followers have watched this thesis
unfold in 2023. Follow the money. And
this is to your point, going back to the
Iran and the Gulf states are set to hold
talks.
Um
conspiracy theory, disclaimer,
disclaimer, stuff like that. But, I do
kind of see think that there is
something to Iran saying,
"America is on its back foot. We have
leverage right now. What if we just cut
the middleman out cuz our initial thing
was Trump is doing all this for the
GCC." And maybe Iran is like, "Hey guys,
we don't need it, you know, we don't
need America in the middle. Let me just
go straight to the source and negotiate
a better deal." Like, could we get cut
out? Do you see a possibility of that
like actually happening or is this just
speculation in your opinion?
>> Let's use this um let's use game theory
as an analogy. So, um John Nash does
this really famous breakdown that ends
up becoming game theory, which is all
right, you're at a bar and you see a
bunch of attractive women, which one do
you go for? Do you go for the most
attractive knowing everybody's going to
go after or do you go for one of the
other women? And it ends up being wiser
for you to go to one of the women who
are less attractive that you're more
likely to be the only one to go after.
The reason that that analogy is so
useful here is that you're looking at
your options and you're thinking
strategically through, okay, what
happens if I make this move? What
happens if I make that move?
If you think of the GCC nations as I'm
just trying to get laid and it's like it
can be the US, it can be Iran in a
regional thing here, doesn't really
matter. So, if the US had come in and
shot their shot and won, back to Iran
down, regime change, take it over, it's
the next Venezuela, then the GCC would
have been like, "We love America the
most. You guys are so dope. Like, this
is rad. Normalize relationships with
Israel. Cool, we're good. We'll move
forward with that."
If on the other hand, America comes in,
shoots your shot, you [ __ ] up, Iran now
takes over, that's why midstream they
went from, "Yeah, we can take off
whenever we wanted to." No, no, no, you
can't take off. Okay, well, yes, you
can. Because they're like, "Fuck, who's
more likely to win? I don't know." But,
they're they're going to have a plan A
for America wins, they're going to have
a plan B for Iran wins. They just want
to make sure that they're on the side of
whoever wins. And so, once you
understand how utilitarian all of
politics is, all of these great wars
are,
not that this is a great war, but a war.
So, it at the end, people are just like,
"Okay, this is a new world order. Cool,
then I'm going to go do that thing." So,
I think ultimately everybody's agnostic.
Just like the US has a backup plan. All
right, cool. We tried to reestablish
ourselves in a much wider part of the
world. We tried to isolate China. Didn't
work. Uh so, now we're going to go back
to being a regional power, but by the
way, we're going to be wealthier than we
were when we went into this. We're going
to scale back our empire, which would be
really good from a capital perspective.
It'd be [ __ ] incredible.
Um
I think there are complexities with
Israel, but even that like I think it's
going to be tough for Israel to hold on
to a
an America that's pro-Israel for much
longer. So, now it's like, "Yeah, [ __ ]
them. Like it plays out how it plays
out. We keep our whatever $3 billion a
year. Not worried about those guys. Not
worried about the GCC. We
produce more oil than Saudi Arabia and
Russia combined. Who the [ __ ] cares?"
And so, we're just going to double down,
do our thing. China's going to be its
thing. We'll tell them, "You've got to
stay the [ __ ] out of uh the larger North
America, which technically goes all the
way down South America. But like you're
going to stay out of our part of the
hemisphere. Uh Europe can do its own
thing. We're the [ __ ] out of NATO. But
like
people are going to be real confused if
they don't understand even if America
scales back, we are still a gigantic
economy. And by the way, and this is
something I don't think people
understand.
China's economy is from a GDP
perspective, you could say it might be
bigger than the US's. Who the [ __ ]
cares? They sell a bunch of stuff. We
buy a bunch of stuff. So, everybody's
going to dick ride America. That's just
how it is because you need our money.
And whoever is going to be in charge of
America, if they understand that, we're
not an empire anymore, we've got our
little neighborhood, but holy [ __ ] our
neighborhood is the wealthiest
neighborhood in the world. Everybody
wants to do business with us. And
literally, look at the charts of foreign
investments pouring into the US, which I
have a feeling, this is just a feeling,
but I have a feeling you can track the
amount of money pouring into the the
on a chart with the housing crisis in
China that people are like, "Woo, there
is nowhere else for me to put my money
other than the US." And so you've got
what the US is doing in AI, we're
currently the leaders though we may try
to really [ __ ] that up, but we're
currently the leaders in AI
which is the hottest technology on
planet Earth.
Uh everybody is doing uh money printing,
so it's like, "Yeah, yeah, [ __ ] I'd
still rather be on the US side of this
for now." And so uh as Japan
destabilizes, China destabilizes, Europe
destabilizes, the GCC destabilizes,
America will have to retreat back to its
own little space, but America retreated
back to its own little space will still
be ridiculously wealthy. And by the way,
if we actually stop being dumbasses that
outsource everything to China and we
start manufacturing in America, now we
can get back to a thriving middle class,
that's an oversimplification, but it
gets you directionally correct, you can
look at the data. What weakened the
power of the American worker is largely,
it's like 34% just straight-up
globalization.
>> But there's something to that though,
because I think when we look at this
chart of uh international investment,
we're high-fiving each other like, "Yes,
we have a bunch of capital inflows, the
stock market's at all-time highs" and
things like that. But is this just the
same phenomenon, but instead of China
taking our jobs, now they're taking our
capital? Like, I'm not saying taking our
capital, but they're
>> It's literally the opposite.
>> They're they're icing Americans out of
the stock market because it's
overpriced?
>> It's not how the stock market works. So,
the what they're doing is they are
funding companies, those companies, if
they are smart and we don't do dumb [ __ ]
like taking stakes in companies and then
telling them what the [ __ ] to do and
what company to work. The way that the
stock market works is yes, it's a
vehicle for everybody to get wealthy,
but it's also a way for the smartest
people in the [ __ ] world when it
comes to being entrepreneurs to
aggregate capital and build new [ __ ]
So, the only reason that Elon Musk has
been able to do what he does is because
of his access to capital. Now, we have
been going in a private capital
direction for way too long. That's
terrible. I don't like to see it. I'd
much rather see us in the public phase
so that broader spectrum America can
participate in this more.
But just setting that aside, when you're
taking in the capital, yes, there's
going to be inflation of assets. There's
no doubt about that. But if you get new
companies being formed all the time
because you've got a dynamic ecosystem
where some companies go out of business,
you're super Hawkeye
watching for monopolies that have unjust
motes. If you're avoiding regulatory
capture like the plague, now you'll have
a very dynamic industry. And you want as
much money flowing into that as you can
possibly get, especially given that we,
like our thing, America's thing, is
financializing everything. And so the
big problem that we have isn't
necessarily that we financialize
everything, though I desperately want us
to get back into manufacturing in a big,
big, big, aggressive, huge way. But the
big problem we have is we're not
teaching people to get into that part of
the economy. We love, by we I mean the
[ __ ] elites, the politicians who are
either too dumb or too sinister to
understand what's going on. For sure the
bankers know exactly what the [ __ ] is
going on. But once we get out of deficit
spending and doing the death spiral of
money printing and using inflation and
siphoning the wealth from everybody and
feeding it back only into asset holders,
if we either stop doing that or we make
everybody asset holders, then you're in
a much better position. So much of this
problem goes away. Like let me just
paint a picture of Japan for you for a
second. Okay, everybody? We dropped two
nuclear bombs
on Japan. Okay?
40 years later,
they were the richest country on Earth.
40 years later.
And that wealth was spread across Japan
so widely,
they they were just balling, dude.
>> Mhm. They were [ __ ] traveling
everywhere in the '80s. If people didn't
grow up in the '80s, they don't
understand. Like, there There is a song
God damn it, I forget which song it was.
California Girls, I think, by Van Halen.
And uh there's a the video opens with a
bunch of Japanese tourists taking
pictures of everything. That was like
memes before there were memes was
Japanese tourists just taking pictures
of America because we were just like a
destination for this country that was
just radically outpacing us. Anyway, so
that's what it looks like when you
really get people involved in the
like the boom, if you will. Now, their
boom wasn't stock market, but when you
get people involved in that boom, which
if we're going to financialize
everything, you've got to get people
involved in that boom. When you spread
it around, it's just good times.
>> To your point though, the politicians,
the elites, and things like that, the
people that are shaping policy in the
country, are they conflating cuz every
time we talk about the stock market, we
talk about it as a proxy for the US
economy. The US economy's booming, stock
market's new high, things have never
been as higher. But when foreign
investment is
10x, 8x what it was 10, 20 years ago,
that inflates those numbers and that
shows a success metric that might not
actually be there. And then that's where
the
I'm just saying it like can we be
blinded by the fact that stock market's
hit a new high that we're not addressing
actual things that Americans need
because the foreign investment in the
stock market pushing those assets higher
are being clouded?
>> Sort of. So, you're You can feel a thing
that you know is a problem,
uh and so when you look at that number,
you don't get excited. But the problem
isn't that the foreign dollars are
coming in and inflating the asset
prices. The problem is that people don't
have access to that because they don't
understand it. So, it just drives more
wealth inequality. So, if you look at
this chart and you go, "Okay, cool. Hey,
one side of the [ __ ] equation is
working, but the other is the
discrepancy between productivity and
what the average worker is capturing."
So, until I think it was
in the '70s or '80s,
uh you start getting a break between
what the I don't think it maps to '71
like that, but you do start getting this
break between the productivity that a
company is able to generate and then the
average worker, how much of that
productivity are they able to capture?
And so, you've got to get back to a
place and you can't do it from the top
down. This is what drives me nuts.
People will often get the problem right,
but they get the solution wrong. And so,
you've got to create an environment
where um the workers in a stronger
position. The single biggest thing that
you can do, it's not unions. You can
look at the [ __ ] numbers. It's not
unions. The single biggest thing that
you can do is to deglobalize so that
there is, whether it's tariffs or
something far more brilliant, but you've
got a reason why the companies need to
be here. They need to make [ __ ] here
because you want to put workers in a
position where they are able to build
their skill set up. You can actually
track this.
Uh industry calls for more talented
workers, but at what rate? And so, if
you get people getting educated faster
than the corporations call for talent,
then they find themselves you get an
overproduction. So, they become cheap.
But if you get the other way, like
industry really needs talented people,
but they're just not able to get as many
as they need. Now, they're all fighting
for the ones that are awesome. And so,
that's start putting workers in a better
position. But we've we've got to get
back to a workforce that is more
powerful. But all the things that we put
forward are born of resentment, and so
all those ideas come from the left and
they're universally stupid and they will
end up breaking the actual engine of
prosperity. That's the problem. So, it's
like, what are the things that we can do
to make sure that the economy's
functioning, that new companies are
starting all the time, that we have
people starting uh small companies that
are going to like have access to, you
know, that broad spectrum of people. And
so, that like that's where we've got to
get people focusing. Now, everyone knows
my preference. I would rather they just
stop stealing from people that save
money, but if we could do that plus get
people into assets plus
make sure that we recognize that workers
have to be in a better position or we
are [ __ ]
>> You started this by saying it's an
education problem.
If we educated, you said when we were
talking about the inflows and the
K-shaped economy, people not capturing
into the
>> They don't know about assets. Yes,
education on assets. Correct.
>> Uh
is this something that if we just
started
a education tour, we showed people how
to invest, we matched them $10 for every
$10 they put in. I'm being facetious,
but like if we actually educated the
masses and more people got into the
stock market, do you think that would
solve the inequality process?
>> Yes.
>> It It
>> Mechanically, it would solve the
problem.
>> Copy.
>> So, it's the same It's actually better
than owning a house because owning a
house takes so much upkeep, but if you
if if from the second you were born,
you were getting money put into the
instead of like Social Security, you
were getting it put into something like
the S&P 500.
And that's just compounding in the
background. It's growing and growing and
growing and growing, and the government
in is just
pulling something out of your paycheck
and putting it right into that like they
do with Social Security. And now that
it's going to go up and down as stock
markets will, but because you're
effectively forcing them to save for
almost two decades before they're going
to touch it, there has never been a
20-year period where somebody wasn't
better off than where they started. Net
literally, not since the stock market
came into existence.
>> Agreed.
>> So, it's like that is where Oh my god,
that would be a win. Like I can imagine
parents I mean, think about you with
your daughter.
Imagine when Trump's like banging on
about the stock market is at all-time
highs, you know that in 4 years your
daughter will be able to start drawing
some of that money.
You'll be like, "Fuck yeah. Like, keep
going. Like, yeah, yeah, yeah. Drive
that higher. Go, go, go." Because you're
participating in it, your daughter's
participating in it. Now it's not a
thing that happens to somebody else.
It's a thing you directly benefit from.
And then I would like to think people
would get paranoid about, "Hey, don't as
the government, you're [ __ ] dumb,
don't as the government decide what
companies are going to succeed or fail.
I don't care. I'm invested in an index,
so I don't care which company is
successful. I just need a company to be
successful. In fact, I don't want you
putting me into individual companies
because I don't know if they're going to
survive. Because OpenAI, Anthropic, they
may legitimately not survive what's
happening in AI right now, which is why
both of them are going for regulatory
capture. Because they're like, "Uh-oh,
the government is slowing us down now
because our models are getting so
powerful that they're actually scary."
And so, uh, that's slowing down. And
corporations are like, "Hey, this
doesn't do all of the things that we
needed to do yet or at least the cost
structure isn't there." So, now they're
pulling back. So, now you've got this
insane debt that continues to grow.
Plus, you have interest rate payments
you have to make. And you're getting a
slowing down, a double whammy of
government is slowing you down, plus
you're getting the slow down of just
corporations being like, "Uh,
like, we got a little out over our skis
here. We're going to back off." Now
you're like, "Fuck, I don't know if
we're going to survive." And so, even
though you may have built all the
infrastructure and done all that, it
might be the next run of companies that
are going to take advantage of that. We
want to make sure that kids are in on it
and that they don't care if it's them or
the next person. If you roll off and the
next person comes in, great, so be it.
Now listen, trauma like that will take a
very long time to recover from. So,
people need to be very honest. Getting
in the stock market does not mean you
don't need a job. And it doesn't mean
you should be thinking you're retiring
at 18. It should be you continuing to
put money away in that. Uh but you have
that emergency fund if you need it.
Ideally, you let it ride until you
retire because by then, god damn. We ran
the math. Caleb uh Hammer did something
on this where it was like if you had put
I forget how much, 10% I think of each
of your paychecks based on a real
paycheck from like 1990,
um in 2025 or 2026 it was worth $2.5
million.
So, it's like
That's exactly what we're trying to do,
invite people into.
>> Um cool. Speaking of the AI boom, um
Bill Gurley, friend of the show, said
this is why Anthropic is causing is
aggressively begging for government
protection. See below, customers are
finding cheaper alternatives, keeping
the employees require keeping employees
requires continuing ultra-rich
secondaries that are dependent on
revenue growth. When you can't win on
the field, go to DC. And this is after
UBS Group found that 60% of companies
now are watching their AI budgets and
are moving to cheaper models and the
open source Chinese models. China
strikes again.
Seems like we should just stop trading
them up and giving them access to our
infrastructure and they just keep
winning.
>> Listen, there there is a lot of truth to
that, but we also need to recognize that
this is how revolutionary new
technologies go. This is why I did a
whole deep dive about um
every time if you look back in history,
go back to the railroads,
when a revolutionary technology comes
into existence, what ends up happening
is usually the first wave of investors
get wiped out.
There's just too big of a gap between
when you have to make the really
expensive investments and when the money
actually starts flowing in and people
usually do it on debt and so the debt
comes due before the revenues come in.
They get stuck, they get liquidated.
That's just a tale as old as time. But
the infrastructure's there and so the
next company comes along and takes
advantage of that. So, Google didn't
have to lay the fiber optic cable, the
companies that did went out of business,
but Google was was to build one of the
most um profitable companies the world
has ever seen on the back of somebody
else's catastrophic failure. So, we want
to be in a position where I mean, us as
individuals just don't care whether it's
Open AI, whether it's Anthropic, whether
it's X.ai, I don't care. As long as
somebody is able to get this over the
finish line and we get access to that
incredible technology. So,
yeah. This this is exactly what you're
up against. Right now, they want to get
glued to the government. They want the
government to come in and use regulatory
capture. So, the government cares very
much that they end up making it and will
support them and create laws to keep
other people out.
It is a terrible idea that greatly
diminishes
people's ability to compete.
And then we all lose.
>> Um
We talked about this a couple shows ago.
I feel like AI is going to be go similar
in the way that the internet did. When
the internet dropped, it was Netscape,
it was AOL, it was
Net Zero, all these internet providers.
These were the These are the internet
companies. This is the future dot com
bubble. All those companies are gone and
instead we have Chrome, we got
Gmail, like we have these other entities
that are built on the internet that is
actually thriving. We have PayPal, we
have eBay, all these other companies.
And I feel like unfortunately for AI,
they have footed the bills for data
centers and all these things. And I just
think at this point the value that they
bring doesn't justify the revenues that
they are trading against. Um even Yann
LeCun is being highly critical of X.ai
and Tesla. And he's saying they're now
going to renting out their data spaces
because they cannot afford to build
internally. They don't have the talent.
It's too competitive. The The market's
too saturated. There's open source free
models competing with models that have a
$400 billion
uh
uh infrastructure cost before they even
release it. So, it's like you either
getting like it's going to be an uphill
battle for them. I thought there would
probably like the five will turn into
two, so
cursor already kind of fizzled away.
He's going to get rolled over to XAI. I
feel like that consolidation is going to
happen again and we'll probably have one
or two and then everybody else is going
to go out of business.
>> Yeah, and then the next wave will come
in and they'll innovate and they'll make
the things that we all go, "Oh my god,
this is amazing." And then as many
people have predicted, the the
foundational model becomes
um a commodity. And it's like, "Yeah,
okay, cool. Like that's those are the
models. Those guys do their thing, but
the real money is the company that
builds something that leverages the
foundational intelligence to
do like the actual like, "Oh, I'm trying
to, for instance, somebody please, for
the love of God, make a pipeline for
games that's just easy peasy, so I'm not
having to cobble different things
together." Like that would be insanely
beneficial.
>> uh
what is it? Um
the engine Unreal Engine released the
MCP server or whatever. They like to
>> Um yes, true. I'm very impressed. No, I
love that. Let's go.
>> is like a big deal. That is
>> Well, it will be a big deal. It's not
quite yet.
Um but yes, that that is a sign that
they're going in the right direction and
that's going to get better and better
and it's going to be absolutely
incredible. And their big prediction is
when we drop six, basically, like it's
all just going to be completely
integrated. AI will do a ton of the
coding for you. Uh but it can
theoretically now allow you to update
blueprints. It's a little shaky for now,
but I expect that to get better over
time. And I think ultimately AI will
make game development effectively
trivial uh from the technical side,
which is phenomenal, but we're not there
yet. But anyway, it'll be people that do
things like that. They build an
interface layer where you don't have to
even know or think about um what are the
control weights and all that kind of
[ __ ] It's like they make this kind of
thing just like really seamless for the
user. You tell it what you want and it
gives it to you. And when we do that,
which will probably be on the back of a
lot of people losing a lot of money
because that debt will just go bad,
that's where it gets scary because of
2008 practices. I don't want to drag us
down that rabbit hole, but just know
there's a rabbit hole there.
Um but that's where this will all, I
think, play out wonderfully, but it's
not going to be an only up phenomenon.
Like there's going to be brutality
between here and there. Which is why
don't over index on any one company.
Don't over index on any one industry.
Like make sure that you are well
diversified. I know that's not sexy, but
ooh, buddy. Uh getting the timing wrong
is the same as being wrong. So, be
careful.
>> Here's the line uh the Yann LeCun uh
quote.
>> XAI is kind of a failure.
Frankly, because the the founding team
has left.
Uh
or was fired. There's some uncertainty
about this.
Uh and Elon is not in a position that is
very, very difficult for him to kind of
find hire top people in AI because
um because he's kind of
you know,
not behaved in sort of very good good
ways toward the the current the previous
team.
Um
so, now he's got this huge
infrastructure
which he rents to other people.
Because that's the only way he can uh
recoup the the cost. So,
>> Now, these two have clashed on cuz if
you guys couldn't hear the beginning of
that, he was saying XAI is kind of a
failure.
Um so, these guys have clashed on X
before. So, I imagine he's maybe a
little too eager to see Elon fail.
Uh and maybe
um
unwise at this stage to bet against
Elon.
Uh so, I'd be a little bit careful with
prognostications that he's not going to
be able to do something. Elon approaches
things like an engineer um and
he'll, I think, be able to attract
talent. So, he's that they built the
infrastructure the wrong way from the
team perspective. Uh so, he didn't get
what he thought he needed out of the
team. He's shown before, whether it's
with X, whether it's with Tesla, both
places he did the same thing, and then
he rebuilt them better than ever. So,
anyway, remember, Elon only gets paid if
he pulls off effectively the impossible.
Um so, I doubt very much this is a guy
that's just going to sit on his laurels,
and his track record is quite frankly
unparalleled in human history. So,
anyway, I'm not one to bet against him
yet.
>> Um okay, I'm looking to pull the actual
footage, but it hasn't been released
from the manufacturers of GTA 6.
But, um allegedly, GTA 6 has surpassed
39 million copies in pre-order. It comes
out in November, 5 months before it
drops, and it's generated over 3 billion
in revenue. The estimated ticket was 1.5
to 2 billion to cost, so they already
made their money back, and it hasn't
even dropped. No DLCs, no pay-to-play,
nothing. Sheesh.
>> Two tack-ons to that. So, the source was
a French retailer, which is where that
number comes from for context. And the
other thing is, it's probably higher
than 3 billion, because there was a
independent gaming group that a lot of
the gaming community follows online, and
they did a poll of which version of the
game are you buying, cuz there's the $80
version and the $100 version. And
overwhelmingly, I think it was like
40,000 people voted, and it was 80%
$100.
>> Woah.
>> Everybody thought it was going to cost
$100, so I was like That's the theory
right now, is that the $100 version was
the original game, but they were worried
about the backlash to $100, so they
locked some of the content behind a
wall, put it in the ultimate edition,
and then made the $80 version. So,
that's the working theory right now that
the community is working off of.
>> Did you pre-order?
>> Uh so, I'm waiting because it's only
digital. So, that's a whole 'nother
conversation with it is, I'm just going
to buy it the night before.
>> They said they are going to do a
physical game. It just won't come out, I
think, until after release.
>> Which they haven't confirmed it, so that
physical thing could still just be
talking about like physical collector's
editions with the code. So, we still
don't know, but I'm hoping it is the
disc because
I'm going to buy it at launch just cuz I
don't want to wait. I've waited 13
freaking years. But, um
you know, it's just crazy.
>> It's very interesting. What's really
fascinating is that their stock price
dropped. So, on the back of rumored $3
billion already profitable,
uh and people are saying that the reason
that the stock price dropped was because
the they expected the base game to be
$100 and they felt like they were
leaving a ton of revenue
on the [clears throat] table.
So, it's very weird to me. You've got a
company doing that well. People are that
excited about it. It made that much
money already 5 months out. It's so
crazy. But, nonetheless, people
apparently had already priced in that it
was going to be a $100 game and when it
wasn't they were not happy about it and
so the stock dropped. Uh it'll be very
interesting to watch to see what happens
there. There's so much turmoil in the
gaming industry right now because costs
are absolutely outrageous. If we have
any fellow Destiny uh players in the
crowd, uh I played Destiny 1 and Destiny
2, but uh Bungie just basically lost the
plot and so they lost all of their
player base, but now Destiny announced
today that they're doing a bunch of
layoffs and there are people behind the
scenes saying, uh "Hey, listen, I'm a
Sony insider and I'm telling you right
now that they are going to make Destiny
3, but they've got to get their cost
structure in order and so this is all
rumor, all rumor, but supposedly they're
going to reduce their costs, build an AI
pipeline, and then start down the road
of doing the game that theoretically
everybody wants them to do, which is
Destiny 3. So, it'll be very interesting
to see, obviously, what comes of the
games industry right now. There are so
many people in the industry that are
just violently opposed to AI. It's
pretty wild. Uh and yet it is so obvious
that AI is the future of gaming. I just
cannot stress this enough. Somebody was
asking me um cuz I So, I did a post and
I said, "I've built uh these mega um
factories, built them out, and
I've also built a video game. And
building the video game was harder than
building out the manufacturing sites."
And so, people are like super weird,
like, "What the fuck?" And the reality
is um when somebody asked me, "Okay, why
is it so hard?"
If I just explained to you just the
animation, which is like really
ultimately a pretty small part of the
game, just the animation, you've got uh
the concept art, the 3D model of the
character, the rigging of the character.
By the way, those are all three
different people. Um you've got
topology, you've got so the total number
of polygons, the triangles as people
often say.
Um you've got like the human artistry
side of just making it look interesting.
You've got um whatever tech art you're
going to do to actually make this thing
work on a computer that has limited GPU
budgets. You've got timing of the
animation. Can the animation be
interrupted? The I mean,
and many more things. That's just the
animation. It is
game development is so technical. It is
far more technical than most people
realize. And so, yes, it is just
extremely, extremely difficult. And so,
if AI can come in and simplify some of
these things, which it already is, and
if it can keep doing that, oh my god,
the industry will be unrecognizable. So,
I'll be very curious to see how quickly
the gamers who are staunchly opposed to
AI actually end up embracing it. I think
it's going to be pretty fast. Now, I
don't know how many um
super chats have built up, but we should
leave ourselves time cuz I want to make
sure at the hour we can switch over to
the
uh
reacts.
>> I've got quite a bit. We'll start from
the top. Quirk says, "What did you think
of Mark Carney saying Canada is a
mosaic, not a melting pot?"
>> Um
it's suicidal. That's so stupid. He is
somebody that prescribes to the idea
that
diversity is our strength, which is
dumb.
Diversity is very much not your
strength. You have to find a way to
overcome the diversity in order to move
forward in any sort of coordinated
fashion. I do not know how people get to
the level that he's at without a
fundamental understanding of
the mechanisms that make a country work.
Like that is ridiculous. It's
ridiculous. So, you want a team of
rivals in the
Lincoln sense
where there are people who think
differently than you, but if you do not
have shared goals, if you do not have a
shared value system,
if you don't have a shared sense of
identity, you're toast. You're toast,
man. So, yeah, I don't get it. Look at
India and Pakistan. Look at Israel and
Palestine.
These are diverse, man. Boy, oh boy.
And they kill each other dead. So, I
don't know what the [ __ ] people think
with stuff like that. It's It's
completely asinine.
>> J W Mann says, "Love the show and it
wouldn't be the same without Drew and
Ryan as in parentheses mostly winky face
thoughtful foils. Do you think the
videos of World Cup fans experience in
the US will help some of the DSA folks
realize how blessed we are to live in
the US at this time?"
>> Nope, not even a little bit. Once you
understand that um
Marxism, Leninism, socialism, communism,
whatever word you want to use for it,
that is it requires resentment. And so,
to push that agenda, no matter what
words come out of their face, it it is a
an ideology born of resentment. It is
about confiscation. It is about
breaking. It is about tearing down. Um
it they have no love for America. Uh
you're going to see that more and more
and more. And
unfortunately, all the evidence in the
world presented to an elite who feels
like they have not been given their just
desserts, they're not going to have it.
And they're going to keep moving in that
direction. Um some of them are doing it
knowingly, and others of them really are
just lost in the emotion of it all. And
so they say words make them feel better.
They say words that make them feel like
they're fighting for the small person.
Uh but in reality, it is confiscatory.
They always turn on each other. And um
yeah, you can look at um whatever flavor
you want to look at. You can uh see how
when um it was run in the Soviet Union,
how all the left-leaning people that
brought it into power were then just
sum- summarily killed uh because they
were no longer useful. They were
agitators. [ __ ] those kids. Like, we're
in power now. We can't have people um
saying anything against the party.
You're dead. Um you can see the same
thing in Iran, by the way. When they the
left ended up helping um
Khomeini get into power, and then he
killed them all. I mean, it's just like
this just happens over and over and over
and over. It is an ideology of
resentment. It requires total rule. Uh
it is not somebody who's trying to
interface with the world as it actually
is. It is somebody who's hungry for
power.
Uh and once they get it, they will use
it. And they will clamp down on
everything. But because um it is not
something that acknowledges uh humans
are selfish. And we need to create space
for them to innovate, for them to
succeed, for them to reap the rewards of
their success. Um
if you can't do that, you end up doing
what the Russians did. This is really
fun. Uh so, they capture all of that
resentment by saying um to Drew's point
that this isn't about race.
This is about class. And so you need to
um really grab your identity as I'm
oppressed. However you manage to find
your way to that, great. And so, in
Russia,
um it was if that guy has more cows than
you, you're being oppressed by him
because that's an unequal outcome. In
Cambodia, it was that person has
glasses. They're more educated than you.
So, Cambodia, we kill people glasses.
And in Russia, they literally
killed the Kulaks, uh the ones that were
better at farming, and then they starved
to death.
That was the outcome. But, that's what
happens when you have that kind of
ideology. So, I wish that some reels on
Tik Tok or Instagram were going to
convince them that no, come on, look how
really wonderful and beautiful this
place is. Um it's way too late for that.
That's not what that ideology is about.
>> And Boomba with a $100 super chat. Damn.
Thank [cheering] you.
>> [applause]
>> Hi Tom, the theory of constraints,
logical thinking tools are used for
building cause-effect logic maps in a
way assumptions can be surfaced and
challenged. Do it or not, ZTF alumni and
founder, community member 18 months. I
appreciate you, your team, and
community.
>> Wow, thank you, man. Thank you for being
a part of it. Uh that means a lot to me.
You know how fiendish I am about
creating an entire generation of
founders. Um so, I am always super
honored
uh that people take that program and
give me a chance to help in some small
way. Ultimately, obviously, you guys do
all the work, uh but I'm very honored.
So, thank you.
>> Uh Justin Pollan says, "Shout out to my
daughter Isabella. We are traveling to
San Antonio next week for high school
FBLA Nationals. She placed first in
Arkansas a few months back. If you could
wish her luck next week, that would be
amazing. Love you all."
>> Oh my god. So, first of all, I think
this is the first time that somebody has
used uh the live as a way to send a
message to uh their kid who presumably
is also watching. That's incredible. So,
yes, best of luck. Uh very excited for
you. That's [cheering] incredible. I
hope it goes very, very well.
Uh and thank you for being a part of the
crew.
>> Next up, Luke Adam Miller says, "Tom
usually critiques socialist policies in
terms of incentives to produce and
innovate. Friedrich Hayek's uh,
Friedrich Hayek's uh, 1945 essay, The
Use of Knowledge in Society, explains
markets as necessary systems of
epistemic
epistemic production. Deep dive?"
>> Um, I that deep dive would fail, but
that's really interesting to me
personally. Drew knows all too well,
like I don't know how you package that
one up. Uh, but yeah, that's very, very
interesting. That it is a factory for
truth.
That makes sense. I mean, you're making
ground truth. That is why top-down price
controls don't work because you lose the
truth signal from the market that says
this is what this is actually worth.
Now, what you think it's worth what the
market on mass is telling you it's
actually worth. Um,
yeah, never quite thought of it like
that, but that's very interesting.
>> Bruce Lugo says, "How exactly does
deglobalization, things becoming more
expensive, less uh, US companies selling
product globally, lower profits, lead to
higher wages? How wouldn't that just
lead to destruction of the US economy?"
>> Okay, so um, one you would never do it
like a light switch where uh, we're
doing everything globally and now
everything is internal. You would create
the incentive structure that will get
people to invest and bring their
companies back here. And so, it will
start and we can use tariffs just
because we're doing it and we can sort
of see, but imagine a world in which the
Supreme Court doesn't uh, reject it. You
saw companies literally saying, like,
"Yeah, we're going to start building a
factory in the US because we don't want
to pay those fees." So, you have
well-established car companies for
instance, instead of manufacturing
somewhere else, like maybe some of this
is being done in Canada or Mexico or
whatever, they start bringing it here
uh, into the US. Um, if you look at um,
the UK,
you see BYD everywhere. And so, stopping
people from or China very specifically
from flooding your market with um, um
government-subsidized things so that
they can artificially destroy your
market so that you can afford to produce
it because it's not profitable and so it
all goes there. Um you start hollowing
out the jobs. So if you reverse that,
you keep those out by making them just
too expensive for them to bring in, you
incentivize companies that already exist
to start building here, and then new
companies to be like, "Well, I might as
well found things here." This is like
exactly what we did when I was looking
for people to help me build Kaizen. I
didn't care if they were in America. I
just needed it to be as cheap as humanly
possible. And so you want to build an
incentive structure where it's people
just go, "Oh, cool. Yeah, then I'm going
to do it here because it's actually
cheaper than if I go somewhere else."
Now, if you do it all at once, you could
definitely create massive problems. But
what you're triggering is the same
innovation cycle that ended up making
China the best, you're just forcing it
to happen on your soil. So it's not an
overnight fix by any stretch of the
imagination, but you have to start
walking that journey at some point. Like
if you don't do it now, then you're
going to be, you know, a year from now
wishing that you would started it. So
whatever that phrase is, what's the best
time to plant a tree? 40 years ago.
What's the second best time? Today.
Uh so yes, would have been better if we
had started this or just never let it
happen in the first place, but we didn't
and so here we are. So today becomes the
second best time to start.
>> And last but not least, lol420 says,
"Great discussion as always. Tom, do you
practice any martial arts like BJJ? Lots
of benefits, but I think the biggest is
you get real feedback in the form of
someone trying to choke you."
>> Yeah, that's really interesting. So um I
did a very long time ago,
um but it was probably too fake of a
martial art for me to have really gotten
too much out of it. Um
and I did it at a time where one, I did
not have all of my mental
um
aggression, fortitude, etc., etc. in
place, and so it was competing with me
doing well in college, and I was really
trying to get into film school, and it
just felt like I had to pick one or the
other plus I'd gotten injured and so I
was like, "Oh god, getting injured over
here. It's pulling me away from what I
really want, which is film school."
Um so, ended up not doing it. Do though
wish in my youth uh that I had. Now,
listen, I could make it a focus and do
it now and I think it'd be
extraordinarily
beneficial for the reasons you were
saying. Weird thing is I was just
thinking about this the other day.
Knowing how to fight is like an
insurance policy, but the problem is
it's an insurance policy. I've spent the
vast majority of my adult life not
having any physical confrontations
whatsoever and so putting time and
energy into my mind uh has felt far more
useful. And then if I'm honest, uh
it has been a much shorter path to
getting good with a gun
uh than putting all that time into BJJ.
But I agree with you, man. It It's one
of those where um
I really do wish
that
I had either done it back in the day or
that um I wasn't worried about getting
injured or just wasn't being lazy cuz
ultimately if I made time for it, it
could happen and if I was willing to
deal with the injuries and all that
stuff, uh I would learn something
incredibly beneficial. And I don't want
to put this person on blast, so I will
just say this.
Uh a well-known um martial arts a BJJ
coach gave me exactly one session. It
was extraordinary. He's such a good guy.
Now though, I think he is not a very big
Tom Bilyeu fan for reasons
uh that are outside the scope of this
conversation, but um
that was cool. I did get injured though
in that one session. Uh and so was just
like, okay, yeah. I would I would really
have to like figure out how to deal with
the injuries. Too many words on that
answer, so I'll stop there.
>> Um you got Dan G 470. He responded in
the chat. I have it pulled up. Oh, you
have it? Go for it.
>> Drew just pointed out um this is from
our super chat from earlier. Drew just
pointed out why Trump is holding the
housing affordability hostage. He's
betting on the emotional response from
constituents that will drive
representatives to get behind the Save
America Act.
>> Hmm.
That was not my read of Drew's
uh take on things. My read and obviously
you're hearing it's always weird when
I'm answering on your behalf, but I'll
I'll finish the
>> using that as leverage, yes. That's the
difference.
>> So, um to me it goes something like
this.
Drew recognizes
the housing problem as not a little
bigger, not a little more important, a
lot more important. And so,
holding the far far far far far more
important thing hostage for this thing
that is largely already solved by
something else. It's like, what the [ __ ]
are we doing? This is political
buffoonery. Given how easy it is to
track his logic, if you share his base
assumptions, it actually makes a lot of
sense. So, it's only when you disagree
with his base assumptions that it's
like, well, I think there's something to
argue about here. So, that's where I go.
If somebody like, okay, for instance,
Gary's economics. The number of people
that come to Gary's aid, I will just
never understand. Uh if you have a video
that you want to link me to where he
actually walks through the logic, I'd
love to see it. But what Gary does is in
in the majority of his content. Maybe
there really is good stuff and I just
haven't seen it. I'm super open to that.
But in all the stuff that I see, Gary
terminates in
cuz he'll give you a couple beats, but
when you point out, hey, that logic
doesn't make sense and it you break
cause and effect for this reason, which
Daniel Priestley did extraordinarily
well when the two of them went
head-to-head on Diary of a CEO. This is
not me guessing. This is me having
watched it play out. And Gary would just
hit the eject button every time uh
Daniel was like, but it doesn't work
like that. And Gary would go, fine.
Yeah, man. Sure, sure, sure, bro. Just
uh keep doing that and see what happens.
And it's like, that is emotion. That's
not a sequence of logic. So, what I want
to hear from Gary is, hey, he just
brought up a point. So, what's your
takedown of that point? So, for
instance, I couldn't refind it, but um
somebody in so we did a reacts video,
which is great because it ends up
attracting people that aren't already in
our audience, but that means that they
hate [snorts] everything that I'm
saying, which means that when I have
time I can go in and like find out, do I
actually have a rebuttal for this
argument? Some I'm going to, some I
won't, which gives me a great jumping
off point to go, oh, am I wrong about
that? Let me go look it up. Anyway, one
of them was about they said, uh, "Tommy,
you're never going to address why things
were better in the '50s and '60s."
Uh, which he was using as like a gotcha.
Um, so you're not addressing the real
problem. You guys know my arguments.
Tommy, you're not addressing the real
problem. I know because the top tax rate
in the '50s and '60s was 91% and so
haha.
Uh, you won't address it because you
can't. Now, here's the problem. It's
very easy to address and I'll address it
now, but I want to nest it in
This is the what I'm about to do is
exactly what I want to see Gary do and I
don't see Gary do, which is, okay, cool.
You've pointed something out. There was
a top tax rate in the '50s and '60s when
the economy really was booming and so
now the question becomes was that
causative? Was the economy booming
because we had a 91% top tax rate?
And, uh, that can be verified. And so
you just go back and look and the
reality is top tax rate was 91. Uh,
however, we were taking in much, much,
much, much less tax per person than we
take in now. Now, that's largely a
function of the economy growing and not
necessarily because you have a 91% tax
rate, but the question becomes as you
abandon that tax rate, does that free
the market up to grow? The obvious
answer is yes because we did and the
economy these decades later is just
boom, boom, booming. Now, what was going
on in the '50s and '60s that was
extraordinarily powerful? One, we were
inflating our debt away, right?
Something you would think I would just
be radically opposed to, but it's part
of a beautiful deleveraging and when you
do it well, it works just fine. So, they
used yield curve control, known as
financial repression, and they
actually inflated their way out from
that whatever 125%
debt to GDP ratio. Now, the reason they
could do it now, and the reason we
wouldn't be able to do it today, is that
the economy was naturally growing. We
were just coming out of World War II. We
were the only ones that were untouched.
The whole world was turning to us to be
this manufacturing marvel. We were sort
of the China of that day. So, you're
financially repressing people, you're
inflating the [ __ ] out of them, but the
economy is actually growing more than
you're stealing in the inflation. So, in
real terms, the average workers' wages
are going up. So, this is not a because
you're taxing at 91% that wasn't the
causative reason for the economy to be
booming. So, there were other things
were happening, and one the one that I
just want to see people really pay
attention to is the worker was more
empowered. They could negotiate better.
They could get better pay. And so, we
want to look at that. Now, everybody
dead ends at the brain dead just get
unions back in. Unions are like a
government, they'll turn cancerous very
quickly. It also doesn't have a very big
impact. So, for my money, that's not the
place to start, but at least that's an
argument that's like, "Okay, we've got
to make the worker more empowered so
that they can capture more of that
increase in productivity." Which is like
the other part of the problem that we
have to solve for. Okay, so that's the
kind of thing that I want to see Gary
do. Now, then the next layer might be
Gary goes, "Okay, well, wait a second. I
don't think that you're clocking the
data right on the unions." And I do
think it's unions. Okay, Gary, cool.
Let's go through it. There's two camps.
Camp number one says it has had a bigger
impact. Camp number two says it it comes
out to about 1 or 2%. Now, you can
debate it. You're in the weeds. It's
probably not going to be super useful,
but like at least we know what we
disagree on. And now we're back to,
"Hey, we agree about the philosophy of
we have to empower the worker. We just
disagree about how to get there." You're
you're going to end in places like that
where people are reading the data in
different ways, they have different base
assumptions, yada yada. That's perfectly
fine. That's super fruitful. Here's the
base assumption, you believe this.
Here's my base assumption, I believe
that. Now the audience gets to make up
their own mind. But when somebody taps
out and they start appealing to uh it's
no longer about cause and effect and
it's just an emotional appeal, which
again, I will ask you guys all to be
clear in your mind, someone can
emotionally present cause and effect,
that's not the same thing as reasoning
from emotion. Okay, what I'm saying is
Gary reasons from emotion. This thing is
the right thing to do because it feels
right. It seems self-evident. This is
what people want. I don't give a [ __ ] if
it's what they want. What works? I know
where they're trying to get to. Is it
actually going to take them there? Is it
actually going to make their life
economically better? Will they feel, not
feel, sorry, will they actually be able
to afford a home? Will they be making
more money in a year than they are now?
Will their kids likely make more money
than them, you know, 20 years from now?
Those are the things that are real,
tangible, and measurable.
And I'm saying he routinely ejects out
of that. And that's where, man, we're
going to talk about uh Chevalier and the
DSA uh in minutes. So, that's where I'm
like, they just [ __ ] tap out. They
just say words that are emotional,
meaning
uh it's about hope. We want to do cool
things. We've got to protect the
integrity of people. What the [ __ ] What
does that mean? What are you going to do
as a matter of policy? We're going to
freeze rents. Okay, cool. Now you've
given me something where I can walk
through cause and effect. I can do a
historical analysis and say, "Hey, has
anybody tried this kind of thing in the
past and does it work?" All right. I
should probably stop there.
>> I got one more super chat. Um Drew, on
your end does it show a message because
someone replied like there was, but on
my end it just says the amount.
>> Yeah, yeah. Uh same. This is Caleb T357.
Thank you for the $100 super chat on a
Friday. Uh
>> [applause]
>> Any advice on how to help a young
teenage daughter navigate the world
effectively? Drew, I'm looking at you.
Tom, please weigh in as well. I respect
and appreciate everything you all do.
>> Let's go, Drew. You've got one.
>> Uh the best parenting advice I had was
that you're not supposed to
you're not supposed to tell your
daughter or your your child how to walk.
You're supposed to walk with them along
the path and you're supposed to guide
them and give them principles that way
they make their best decisions going
forward. So,
I know when teenage, it the
switch flips and it gets a lot worse and
it's a lot more um intense in the way of
the pushback and the self um
the independent philosophy and the
argumentative and stuff like that,
especially with young uh women. Um but
it's still grounded in when she was
eight, she was in um
martial arts for 2 years, so that's how
she learned respect and discipline. So,
the things that we did as she was
growing up reinforced things. So, now
when she's going through her uh
independent um
spurts, we can kind of use those
historical examples to kind of calm her
down and walk her against the edge. Um I
I will say though,
my daughter specifically, she has
told me off, not like cursed me out or
something like that, but she has
forcefully voiced her concerns about
something that I have I did.
Um she's made jokes about me that made
me like open my mouth and the group
laugh and the table like riot. Um and
she has over performed in everything
that she puts her mind to. So, it's one
of those things where you can't get mad
when she's overly expressive, when she
has an attitude, and then not be
uh happy that she's also making an
off-color joke that nobody prompted her
to. So, I allow her to have that space
and that playground to play, but at the
edges of those fences are those
principles and those morals that we
built earlier in her life. So, yes,
she's going to go to the edge of that
gate, and yes, she's going to say
something or do something that you might
be the butt of the joke, or she might
lash out at you, and then you start to
go a couple levels deeper and you
realize, "Oh, it's not that she's mad at
she What she's saying isn't the thing.
You have to look at the subcontext." And
this is something that I think is
applicable to a lot of women
just in life is the lash out often times
is a sub-context under that of like,
"Oh, what I'm really saying is I don't
feel safe." Or, "Oh, what I'm really
saying is I miss you." Or, "Oh, what I'm
really saying is you weren't there for
me and I needed you to support me in
that thing." So, don't think about the
words that are coming out of her mouth.
What's the context that comes under it?
>> Can I jump in from a recent teen
perspective?
>> There it is.
>> Uh so, you said something 4 weeks ago
that stuck with me that my parents also
did, which um I don't know your exact
phrasing, so correct me if I'm wrong,
but it was hear them out even if you
disagree and validate that these are the
things they're feeling. And I think too
many parents don't do that. And like you
said you do that, my parents do that to
me. It's like that is so helpful as a
teenager for developing your worldview
is because you're not going to always
agree with your parents just like you
said now. Um so, I don't know. I just I
like when you said
>> about that like to other people cuz when
me and Lynn get into it, I immediately I
have a bunch of female friends. I really
call them like, "Am I tripping right
now?" Like I don't I don't I want to
just make sure I didn't And it
every time they have the conversations,
they're like, "Oh, the argument is
good." Like the fact that she's bringing
her feelings to you, you're talking
through things, you're working through
it. You want that. You don't want her to
just be quiet and ice you out. That's a
way worse position. Your relationship is
strained. At least now she's actively
trying asking for more because she
there's something there's a deficit
there. So, that's where I started to
kind of change the perspective on it to
Ryan's point of like
you feel how you feel. I hear you. Thank
you for bringing your emotions. Thank
you for being vulnerable with me. I
don't see it that way, but thank you for
saying it. You hungry? And then we I try
to like lead it into something else.
>> And that's exactly how my parents were
as a teen. [laughter] So,
>> For real, thank you for your service,
man.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh that that is banger advice. The only
thing that I would add to that is get
your child addicted to the only belief
that matters, which is that if they put
time and energy into getting better,
they will get better. AKA give them a
growth mindset. Everything after that,
you're not going to be able to walk with
them forever. Um and they are going to
meet the real world and they are going
to have to figure out how to navigate
it, and the real world is going to break
them. It's going to scar them in some
way, and if they don't have the
emotional resilience to get back up and
keep going, then all hope will be lost.
Um, so that would be
if if I were going to try to impart
wisdom onto a kid, it would be that.
That's literally what I'm trying to get
across, whether it's in a video game or
a story, when I'm thinking about kids
that I'm right there with that.
>> Right.
>> That's it. You guys, thank you so much
for everybody that stayed with us today.
I appreciate you guys so much. Shout out
again to Humble House who uh allows us
to talk about these crazy subjects. I
appreciate those guys so much, and they
make an absolutely amazing product. The
ingredient label is sales uh marketing
enough for me. It's absolutely
incredible. They are delicious. You can
get 15% off with code Tom.
humblehousefoods.com. Make sure that you
check them out. Uh and then I'm doing
another ITU AI masterclass Thursday,
July 9th at 1:00 p.m. Pacific. Make sure
you join me. It is free, free, free, and
I will show you how to be a part of the
solution and build a company using AI.
Again, it's completely free Thursday,
July 9th at 1:00 p.m. Pacific. The link
uh is there. You can click it and sign
up. It's in the description. All right,
everybody. We will see
>> missed any part of the show, make sure
to head on over to Tom Bilyeu Clips.
I'll also drop that link in the chat.
>> Discord clips channel.
>> Discord clips channel, AI masterclass.
>> There you go. All right, so we do have a
clips channel. So, the reacts will
almost certainly end up living on the
clips channel. So, make sure that you
subscribe to Tom Bilyeu Clips. All
right, everybody. Have a great weekend.
See you Monday. Peace.