Trump Just Triggered the Collapse of the IRS – No One’s Ready for What’s Next
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
The podcast argues that the United States is currently undergoing a radical shift in taxation driven by the collapse of IRS enforcement, which has seen staffing fall by 34% and audit rates for millionaires drop over 70%. This dismantling is not merely ideological but a mathematical necessity within Ray Dalio's "big debt cycle," where America has entered late stage five: internal conflict. The speaker explains that with the national debt growing at an unsustainable pace, interest payments now outpace major government programs like Social Security. Because voters demand low taxes and high spending while politicians rely on populist promises to win elections, traditional tax enforcement becomes politically impossible; cutting the IRS allows leaders to fund deficits without appearing to raise taxes directly. To replace lost revenue from a gutted IRS, the administration is turning toward tariffs, which historically funded over 90% of federal revenue before the Civil War but are now insufficient for modern fiscal needs. The speaker describes this as "Kabuki theater," where politicians use tariffs as a politically palatable cover story to shift tax burdens onto consumers and foreign exporters rather than admitting to raising taxes domestically. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent understands these mechanics, both hyper-funding the IRS and implementing massive tariffs are characterized as mere band-aids on a severed artery. The core issue remains fiscal dominance, where the Federal Reserve is forced into impossible choices between causing inflation or creating asset bubbles because interest rate adjustments can no longer manage the exploding debt burden without destroying the economy. The transcript warns that this trajectory mirrors historical empires and nations like Venezuela, which collapsed after nationalizing industries and printing money to cover spending gaps. The speaker asserts that relying on government bailouts, rent freezes, or free programs is a path to ruin because these initiatives are funded by inflation rather than economic growth. With the political system unable to vote for balanced budgets or meaningful spending cuts due to career incentives, the nation faces an inevitable default within roughly a decade unless it undergoes "beautiful deleveraging"—a process of cutting spending and restructuring debt that is politically unfeasible in the current climate. Consequently, individuals must prepare for a scenario where the dollar's value erodes significantly as the government resorts to stealth taxation through money printing. In response to this impending crisis, the speaker outlines an individual strategy focused on robustness rather than outsmarting the market or timing its peaks and valleys. The advice includes avoiding leverage, which turns paper losses into permanent ones during repricing events, and building liquidity with cash reserves for disruptions. Investors are urged to diversify away from exclusive reliance on US assets by including uncorrelated classes like gold, energy, or Bitcoin to hedge against structural inflation. The ultimate goal is not to achieve the highest returns but to avoid being wiped out when the "everything bubble" corrects; winning in this environment means maintaining a portfolio and lifestyle that can withstand multiple hits without panic selling. Ultimately, the podcast concludes that the IRS collapse and tariff reliance are symptoms of an empire clutching its straws as it approaches stage six: total collapse. The speaker emphasizes that voters must stop supporting policies that promise free goods funded by money printing, as these only accelerate inflationary decay. Instead of trying to be macro traders who predict market crashes perfectly, individuals should adopt a global mindset and focus on owning productive assets while minimizing debt. This approach ensures survival in an unstable economic landscape where the old rules no longer apply, protecting personal wealth from both government-sanctioned fraud via counterfeiting and the inevitable consequences of unsustainable national debt levels.
Read the full video transcript
IRS enforcement staffing has fallen by
34%
even as the tax code ballooned to more
than 4 million words. Over 25,000
IRS employees have been eliminated in
the last few years. It's the largest
collapse of US tax enforcement in modern
history. The IRS now audits less than
0.2%
of taxpayers, the lowest audit rate in a
century. Audits for millionaires have
dropped by over 70% and audits for
billion-dollar corporations have dropped
by more than half. It's all actually
happening. Trump's long-promised plan to
collapse the IRS is no longer just talk.
With IRS layoffs, the one big beautiful
bill tax reform, and record-breaking
tariff revenue, we are witnessing the
most radical shift in American taxation
in 100 years.
The question is why? What's Trump's
vision? Replace the IRS with a
streamlined system funded by foreign
tariffs instead of punishing hardworking
Americans? Maybe, but here's the
problem. The government is still
spending $7 trillion a year while
collecting only 5 trillion. And that gap
will sink us. This isn't just about
taxes. It's about power, control, and
whether you get crushed or come out
ahead. When I started my research, I
actually wasn't sure why things were
headed this direction because a tax
system doesn't just quietly dismantle
itself. Not while the national debt is
exploding faster than at any other point
in our history. Someone wants this, but
why now? Why gut the only institution
responsible for collecting the revenue
that keeps the country running? Why
disarm your tax enforcers right when you
need tax dollars the most?
Today, we're going to explore why the
IRS had to die, who killed it, and most
importantly, what exactly is changing
and how to use the new system to your
advantage. Fail to understand that and
you will be part of the 90 plus percent
that end up left holding the bag.
Now, parts one and two are about getting
beyond the PR of what's
happening right now so you can actually
see the true nature of the problem. And
part three is the path forward. So,
welcome to part one. Why the IRS had to
die.
Between 1980 and today, the US national
debt has grown by 3,000%
while tax enforcement capacity has gone
in the exact opposite direction. In 2023
alone, interest payments grew by 38%
outpacing every major government
program, including social security.
Federal spending is now so lopsided that
70 cents of every tax dollar goes to
just three things: social security,
Medicare, and interest on the national
debt. In the last 50 years, Congress has
passed a balanced budget exactly four
times, and none of those times happened
in the last two decades. Since 2001,
Washington has increased annual spending
by nearly 90% while median household
income has only risen by 18%. The US
Treasury has to issue billions of
dollars in new debt instruments
every day to cover its shortfalls, a
pace never seen in American history.
We're in that moment in the movie
Titanic where the ship seems fine, but
it is a mathematical certainty that it
is going to sink. Everyone's still calm,
but it's just a question of how many
people are going to drown and freeze to
death.
Many countries have been here before us,
and all of them have fallen.
How did we all end up in this same exact
position time and again throughout
history? Well,
every empire that has ever existed
learns the self-destructive power of
debt and money printing the same way.
Debt allows you to grow because business
is the act of creating a system that
outputs something more valuable than its
inputs. Take some protein powder, liquid
fiber, mix it together with some other
stuff, and you've got a protein bar.
Do it right, and people will pay more
for the finished bar than what the
ingredients and labor cost you. That's
business. But, getting started is often
very expensive, and that's why debt,
borrowing money, comes in so handy. And
governments do it on an industrial
scale.
The problem is, and the reason it brings
down empires,
is they get addicted to borrowing money.
And every empire that has ever existed
has ended up borrowing more money than
they could ever possibly pay back
unless they counterfeit their own money.
This is known as money printing,
quantitative easing, debasing the
currency, whatever euphemism you want to
use, but it is legalized counterfeiting.
And regardless of being legalized, it's
still counterfeiting. And counterfeiting
money has the counterintuitive effect of
making each dollar less valuable. Now,
if you owe a lot of money, that's
actually a good thing. That's what you
want. You want the dollars to be worth
less over time, so they become easier to
pay off. The catch is that some people
understand how this game works and they
know there's a way to hide from the
government-sanctioned fraud of legalized
counterfeiting
and that's to own assets. Things like
houses, gold, stocks, bonds, and crypto.
The bad news is that the vast majority
of people in any given country don't
understand how assets protect you from
the ravages of legalized counterfeiting,
which is often referred to as inflation,
and that's why 10% of Americans own 93%
of all the assets. The other 90% of
Americans are made poorer by the day,
literally, by this counterfeiting, by
debasing the currency.
And so this small number of people races
away in wealth from everybody else.
In the short run, this makes the wealthy
happy because they get even wealthier
compared to everyone else.
But,
they become so convinced that they're
clever for escaping the effects of
inflation that they lose sight of the
age-old truth. Too much wealth
inequality as these two groups race away
from each other causes revolution and
the collapse of a once-wealthy nation.
It's happened over and over throughout
history.
Before the revolution happens, the
wealth inequality manifests as what's
known as populism, which is what you're
living through right now. Populism is
where people's economic economic
insecurity is turned into anger. That
anger then manifests as tribal thinking
and a desire to secure more government
money for one's own side. No one wants
to compromise. No one wants to cut
spending. People, in fact, want more
spending and they want that money to go
to them and their team. This causes
politicians to promise a bunch of free
stuff because it's in a populist moment
and that's what people need to hear to
be motivated to vote for a politician.
And politicians will literally say and
do whatever they need to to get elected.
And one of those things that they say to
get elected is that they'll cut the IRS
and reduce taxes. Another is that
they'll make healthcare more affordable.
Another is we'll fund this war effort
and that war effort. No one is thinking
about where the money is actually going
to come from. They just know they
themselves don't want to pay for it and
they want as much of the benefit to go
to them as humanly possible.
Hence,
we're dismantling the IRS and giving tax
breaks all while we radically increase
government spending
during a time when we are running
historic deficits and racking up more
crippling debt.
It is not at all hyperbole to say that
America is racing towards bankruptcy and
that within roughly a decade, if nothing
changes, America is going to default on
its debt or inflate its own currency to
a breaking point beyond which it will
not be able to recover.
Ray Dalio, the legendary investor who
made his insane fortune by understanding
how something he calls the big debt
cycle drives the rise and fall of
empires.
He's documented how debt and money
printing cause empires to follow a
tragically predictable cycle. First,
they bring on sensible debt, then
outrageous debt, then they print money
to keep up with the rising interest
payments, then they collapse under the
weight of their debt and have to debase
the currency to try and keep up with the
ever-increasing interest payments.
In the end, debt is undefeated against
empires and we're in the middle of that
cycle. The big debt cycle has six
official stages. Stage six is total
collapse. Phase five is the internal
conflict phase. It's when societies
fracture into warring tribes, when trust
in institutions collapses, governments,
desperate to avoid short-term pain,
resort to the same three tactics over
and over again. Borrow more, print more,
and push the pain into the future.
We will get right back to the show in a
moment, but first, let's talk about the
difference between making content and
producing content at scale. Impact
Theory is a media company with over a
billion views. I'm telling you that for
one reason. We know what slows down
production. And my team tells me one
huge time sync is hunting for assets,
stock footage, music, sound effects,
licensing confusion, paying per download
like you're being nickel and dimed. It
adds up fast and it compounds with every
video you make. That's why my editors
love Storyblocks. Unlimited downloads,
one price, no caps, no overages, no
surprise fees. Video, music, sound
effects, templates, all of it. Download
as much as you need. Everything is
pre-licensed and royalty-free. You
download it and use it, you're
protected. To get started with unlimited
stock media downloads at one set price,
head to storyblocks.com/impact
or just click the link below. And now,
let's get back to the show. Dalio's
framework is brutally simple.
Empires rise when they borrow to invest
in productive things.
They peak when debt grows faster than
productivity. They decline when money
printing becomes the only way to delay
the economic crisis, and they collapse
when interest payments spiral so far out
of control that the government can no
longer meaningfully function.
According to Dalio, America is now in
late stage five of this process.
Remember, stage six is total collapse.
The deficit is just too large, the
political system is too divided, and the
debt burden is compounding too fast for
the old tools, namely interest rate cuts
or interest rate increases, tax hikes,
and spending cuts
to work without destroying the economy
in one direction or the other.
And that's why the IRS is being
sacrificed. The system is past the point
where traditional tax enforcement would
solve the problem anyway. The math is
just too gnarly. Plus, the political
incentives are too warped, and no one is
going to vote for more taxes, unless of
course it's just on the rich. More on
that later. And so, here we are. Despite
Thomas Massie's heroic debt clock lapel
pin, America is in stage five. We are
buried under so much debt, we're stuck
in a debt loop known as fiscal
dominance. I did a whole video about
that, which you can watch here.
For now, suffice it to say that we've
burdened ourselves with massive deficits
by voting for government to spend way
more than we make every year in tax
revenue. Those deficits have become so
massive that the Fed, the organization
created to guide the economy by
adjusting interest rates and printing
money, can no longer do either of those
things without creating massive
problems. If you raise interest rates,
you force the government to hyperinflate
the currency to make its interest
payments, thus destroying the dollar and
making everyone poor. If you lower
interest rates, you flood the economy
with cheap money, which creates
2000-style dot-com bubbles and
2008-style housing bubbles, but
everywhere and much worse.
There are no good paths left. Well,
except a balanced budget, but no one's
going to vote for that. And for anyone
who thinks that we can simply tax our
way out of this, the rich or otherwise,
know this, for every dollar of new tax
revenue since 2019,
our beloved government has added $1.58
in new spending.
That is the populist doom loop. Tax
more, we'll spend more.
Tax less, still spend more. Technically,
as the richest country on planet Earth
though, we don't have a revenue problem.
Technically, we have a spending problem.
But when you have to promise tax breaks
to get elected, you make the whole
problem much worse.
And even if politicians wanted to fix
this the old-fashioned way, by beefing
up the IRS and cracking down on
enforcement, the sad truth is, as I
said, the IRS model itself is no longer
compatible with the world we live in.
For starters, voters don't want the
Nordic-style high across-the-board taxes
that would be necessary to balance the
budget without spending cuts. And even
if you confiscated every single dollar
in every billionaire's bank account,
you'd only buy yourself roughly 2 years
of extra runway.
That's what happens when your national
debt is $38 trillion
and growing by a trillion more dollars
every 100 days.
Additionally, the US tax code has become
hyper-complex
by design. It's not a revenue system
anymore.
It's a 4-million-word labyrinth of
carve-outs, incentives, political
favors, industry protections, and
decades-old patches stacked on top of
patches. You don't enforce a tax code
like that, you just try to survive it.
Add to that the reality of globalized
capital. 40 years ago, income was earned
locally. Today, it flows across borders
at the speed of light. A sophisticated
individual or corporation can move
money, assets, ownership structures, and
tax liability across jurisdictions with
a single keystroke. The old audit model,
built for a paper-based economy, simply
can't keep up.
On top of that, you've got congressional
loophole making, which never seems to
end. Every session adds new exceptions,
new credits, new deductions, new
industry favors, and new layers of
complexity. The IRS does not just have
to enforce one tax code, it's
essentially got to enforce dozens of tax
codes that have been stitched together
into a giant Frankenstein's monster. And
to top it all off, that enforcement has
become customer level, not corporate
level, not structural level. Millions of
individuals filing millions of
increasingly complicated returns, all of
which must be checked, verified,
cross-referenced, and reconciled with
other agencies. That would be hard
enough, but when you add human
overwhelm, the data complexity alone now
exceeds what a human enforcement system
could physically handle. Massive data
sets, multi-layered financial reporting,
endless forms, hybrid digital and paper
trails, even a fully funded, fully
staffed IRS would struggle to keep up.
It gets hard to argue for a department
and it gets hard to argue for a
department nobody wants to do an
overwhelming job when, despite however
many additional billions it manages to
collect, it won't even make a dent in
the trillions of dollars we add to the
deficit every year.
It's not an ideological problem, it's an
architectural one. The enforcement model
that worked in the 1950s
simply cannot survive in a world where
the financial system has been
gerrymandered to allow politicians to
make any promise they need to to get
elected.
Once you see that, you see the game
that's actually being played. In a world
where voters want big spending and low
taxes, any politician who stands up and
says, "I'm going to raise taxes and beef
up the IRS audits." is committing career
suicide. So, what's a girl to do? Well,
if you're a Democrat, you promise free
things, print money, and you tax the
rich to please the base, even though it
won't help in reality. If you're a
Republican, you've got the IRS and offer
tax breaks to please the base, even
though in reality it won't help. But, on
the surface, it does three crucial
things.
First, it's invisible to most voters.
Nobody gets a bill saying, "We just let
your neighbor underpay by $50,000."
The lost revenue just doesn't show up as
a line item. It just silently widens the
deficit. Second, it's emotionally
popular. The IRS is consistently one of
the least-liked federal agencies.
Roughly half of Americans view it
unfavorably.
"Cut the IRS." and "Abolish the IRS."
are reliable applause lines on the
campaign trail. Third, and this one is
big. It not only pleases the base, it
pleases big donors. And we've got so
much money in politics. Remember when I
said the politicians will do and say
anything they need to to get elected?
Well, when audit rates for millionaires
and large corporations fall 50 to 70%,
that makes campaign donations a little
easier to secure. But, then so do
promises of free buses, free daycare,
and freezing rent. That also buys votes.
Rational politicians do what politicians
do. They focus on gaining and retaining
power. So, Republicans starve the IRS
and Democrats expand social services and
both of them race us towards
catastrophe.
But optically, their choices check all
of the boxes for getting elected. Voters
love it. Donors love it. And the
inflation and/or loss revenue is simply
invisible to virtually everyone.
Sure, the actual budget math is a
bloodbath, but in everyone's back pocket
is a plan, however precarious, to grow
revenues. For the Democrats, it was
boosting GDP through new government jobs
and for the Republicans, it's replacing
the Internal Revenue Service with
tariffs and the External Revenue
Service. The question is, part two, what
are tariffs and can they actually save
us?
From 1790 through the Civil War, over
90% of all federal revenue came from
tariffs.
During that period, the US government
raised more money from tariffs than from
all other taxes combined.
By 1820, 87 cents of every dollar the
government spent was earned from
tariffs.
One of the first acts of Congress was to
ensure that the federal government was
funded almost entirely through import
duties, aka tariffs.
Before the Civil War, the federal
government spent less than 2% of GDP and
almost all of that was funded by taxes
on foreign goods, not citizens' wages.
The federal income tax didn't even exist
for the first 124
years of American history.
Once again, tariff revenues are on the
rise. In fiscal year 2025, tariff
revenues hit nearly 200 billion dollars
in a single year, an all-time high.
The question is, is that enough to save
us?
As always, the answer is to look at
history for clues. And as you just
heard, tariffs are not new. In fact,
they're as old as the country itself.
But what is new is the way Trump has
resurrected tariffs, not as a simple
line item in the federal budget, but as
a political weapon. If you understand
anything about Trump, understand this.
He likes tools that let him negotiate
from a position of dominance. He likes
leverage. He likes pressure. He likes
yanking people in with that weird-ass
handshake and saying, "Do XYZ thing that
I don't like, and I'm going to hit you
where it hurts." Tariffs give him that
kind of leverage. But do they generate a
meaningful amount of revenue? They let
him posture on the world stage, I'll
give him that. They let him reward
allies and punish adversaries, I'll give
him that. But do they generate a
meaningful amount of revenue? And if
not, why not? Because for the first half
of the country's existence, they were
effectively our only source of income.
Now, the short answer, of course, is no.
They no longer generate a meaningful
amount of revenue. When you add a
trillion dollars to your deficit every
100 days, and interest is compounding
far faster than revenues are growing,
200 billy a year just ain't going to get
you there.
This is part of the Kabuki theater of
government that we're living in right
now. They've got to message that they're
going to tax someone somewhere. Tax the
rich. Tax the foreigner selling us
stuff. Secretly tax everyone through
inflation. Tax someone somewhere. Just
not me.
And that's tariffs' real superpower in
this hyper-dysfunctional political
moment. They're a tax with a great cover
story. But the harsh reality of tariffs
is that they are a consumption tax. It's
a tax that is typically shared between
the exporter, the other guy, and the
importer, the US company. And because
this tax is typically shared by both
parties via renegotiated terms,
politicians can beat their chest and say
that the other guy is paying. It's a
simple slogan. It's very memorable, it's
great for getting reelected. It even
feels patriotic. Finally, someone is
going to pay their fair share. There's
just one problem. It's not economically
viable given the size and scale of our
government, and most importantly, the
fact that we have globalized the
economy. We've got essential goods that
we need that are manufactured outside of
the country. Now, you can try and get
clever and make carve-outs, but the
reality is that revenue streams aren't
just about how much you make, it's about
how much you need to make. For the first
half of America's life, the government
was small. The government didn't carry
so many people on its back. The
government today is massive. It picks up
everybody's tab everywhere, making the
idea of funding an entire
quasi-socialist empire through a
consumption tax on non-essential goods
ludicrous.
You either won't generate enough revenue
to reduce your deficits meaningfully, or
you end up causing prices on essential
goods to rise. And given we're in the
middle of an affordability crisis,
that's a non-starter if you want to get
reelected. So, while tariffs give Trump
the perfect cover story, the actual
mechanics are such that we'll make some
money, raise prices at least a little
here and there, and ultimately still be
left hunting for a solution that
actually resolves the fiscal crisis.
So, the big question becomes, can
tariffs at least fill the hole left by a
gutted IRS? Are they equivalent? The
short answer is yes, but does it really
matter? When the Biden admin decided to
hyper-fund the IRS by giving it 80
billion new dollars, it was estimated to
bring in roughly 200 billion dollars
over 10 years. Given tariffs have
already done 200 billion in a single
year, it's safe to say that tariffs are
better than a hyper funded IRS. But,
we're still staring down a two trillion
dollar annual deficit. That's a 10x
difference.
Neither tariffs nor the IRS can
supplement revenue enough to reverse our
fortunes. Sure, they let politicians
raise taxes without admitting they're
raising taxes, but it's just not going
to be enough. And for anyone who thinks
that Trump just doesn't understand
tariffs, it it doesn't matter.
Even if Trump doesn't fully understand
the macro mechanics of anything he says,
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent does.
Bessent is one of the most brilliant
economic minds on planet Earth. He
understands full well how tariffs work,
and he's advising the president. But
even still, tariffs and a hyper funded
IRS are nothing more than Band-Aids of
varying size on a severed artery. They
buy a little time, but they don't heal
the wound.
These are both the tricks of a
late-stage empire clutching its straws.
When you can't raise taxes, won't cut
spending, and are forced to print money
to avoid defaulting on your debt,
you turn to the only tools you have
left. Financial repression, inflation,
capital controls, and stealth taxation.
Tariffs
are all of that rolled into one. They
are the perfect late-stage tool. They
look patriotic while acting as a hidden
tax. They look like punishment for China
while quietly raising revenue at home.
They look like strength while
functioning as a pressure release valve
for a collapsing fiscal system.
But what they can't do is solve the real
problem.
The compounding interest on the
ever-growing debt.
Once the interest payments on your debt
exceed your revenue, it's game over. And
tariffs, despite their popularity and
political utility, at least for
Republicans,
They cannot stop the math of what's
coming.
So, that brings us to the only question
that actually matters. If the IRS is
dead and tariffs can't save us and the
big debt cycle is accelerating,
what the hell are we supposed to do?
Stay with me because what I'm about to
tell you affects every single person
listening right now. There is a
billion-dollar industry profiting off of
your personal data and you're the only
one that isn't getting paid. Data
brokers are legally harvesting your
information, your home address, your
email, your phone number, even your
social security number and flipping it
for cash. Scammers use it to steal
identities, criminals use it to commit
fraud, stalkers even use it to find
victims. That's where Incogni comes in.
Incogni finds where your data is exposed
across hundreds of data broker sites
and removes it automatically. You give
them permission, they go to work. No
phone calls, no forms, no stress, just
real results. So, if you're serious
about privacy, take action right now. Go
to incogni.com/impact
and use code impact to get 60% off your
annual plan risk-free for 30 days. And
now, let's get back to the show.
Welcome to part three, the wise man's
path forward in a country that's going
broke.
In the 1950s, Venezuela had the fourth
highest GDP per capita in the world. For
decades, Venezuela had the world's
highest growth rate, rising faster than
South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore.
By 1960, Venezuela was richer than
Spain, Greece, and Israel and wealthier
per capita than half of Western Europe.
In the late '70s, the Venezuelan
currency was considered one of the
strongest currencies on Earth. In 1980,
it was worth more than the dollar.
Then, in 1976, Venezuela nationalized
its entire oil industry. Between 1999
and 2017, Venezuela passed more than
1,000
price control laws.
Like what you're seeing in New York.
Regulating everything from food to
medicine and household goods. Inflation
exploded after the government printed
money to cover spending gaps, increasing
the money supply by over 10,000%
between 2010 and 2020.
Between 2014 and 2021, Venezuela's
economy shrank by nearly 75%,
erasing 3/4 of its GDP in just 7 years.
That's what collapse looks like.
And as always, it's triggered by
political lunacy brought on by a
populace that votes for free
without understanding how the economy
actually works.
If you want to fix your society, you
must fix what people vote for. Since
politicians will do and say whatever
they need to do to gain and maintain
power, voters are what matters. So, the
first step in navigating well a country
that's going broke is to never vote for
free buses, rent freezes, and expanded
social programs. Money printing is how
these things are always paid for. By
nature, these things economic
growth, which means you'll never be able
to tax your way to cover the costs.
Taxes can only support a massive
government when the economy is growing
rapidly. And ironically, over-taxation
and nationalizing your most lucrative
industries is exactly how you slow the
economy down.
But despite that PSA, I don't expect the
voting populace to master economic
rationality.
I really hate to be cynical. It does not
suit my personality, but in reality, I
just don't see it any other way.
So, here is the wisest path forward
given the reality we're in. Everyone
would have to accept that the reality is
that to collectively get out of the
current problem,
we would have to execute what Ray Dalio
calls a beautiful deleveraging.
And that's where you dramatically cut
government spending,
strategically print money to juice the
economy to offset the reduction in
spending,
and restructure some debt. All while
increasing taxes a bit and spreading the
wealth around to reduce wealth
inequality and avoid a revolution.
In my most optimistic moments, I think
if enough of us bang that drum that
maybe we could actually pull it off, but
in my more sober moments, I accept
that's the ideal, but the odds of us
getting there as a collective are
effectively zero.
So, it's better to have a plan that only
requires us as individuals to act
rationally. So, strap in, that's what
I'm going to walk us through.
The first step in navigating this well
is to stop arguing with reality. We are
in fiscal dominance, and therefore, our
corrective measures are very limited. We
can't just print money.
We can't just lower rates. We can't just
raise rates. Taxation alone will not get
us there. A hyper-funded IRS isn't the
answer. Tariffs are also insufficient.
We must dramatically reduce spending,
but no one gets elected with that
campaign promise, so that option is out
as well. Interest costs are exploding,
and they will tank the economy. That is
a given. We have no realistic brakes
left on this runaway train.
Based on the rate that we're
accumulating debt, we're headed to
default somewhere in roughly the next 10
years. I wish it wasn't true, but that's
the math. Openly defaulting on our
national debt would be brutal, but
honest, but it's way too painful, so
we're not going to do it. It's kind of
like the difference between jumping off
a cliff versus being pushed off. Odds
are we're going to wait to be pushed.
Getting pushed is the equivalent in this
case of what's known as a soft default.
This is where we'll print money until
the dollar no longer has any meaningful
value, like Venezuela did.
Now, I'm not qualified to give anyone
financial advice, but I'm going to walk
you through how I think about this
moment for myself. Please keep in mind
this is for entertainment and
educational purposes only. You really do
need to understand the stuff yourself.
Do not take anyone's word for it, not
mine, not anybody's. Think through the
problem.
Any intelligent, forward-looking
financial strategy will take massive
money printing into consideration.
Consider diversifying away from just the
US. Though currently it's still a very
potent market, so think diversification,
not extrication. Keep cash on hand to
deal with any major disruption in the
markets without the need to panic sell.
Expect volatility, avoid binary,
all-or-nothing bets, and tilt your life
towards robustness in the face of
unpredictability. So, get into
uncorrelated asset classes. Assume you
cannot see the future clearly and plan
for surprise nested inside of
predictable historical loops. Odds are
we are right now in an everything
bubble, but you don't have to predict
the exact week or month that the
bubble's going to burst. You just have
to be in a position where when it does
happen, you're not the one getting
margin called, you're the one going
shopping for opportunities. Time in the
markets really does beat timing the
markets. Despite the fact that it's a
major cliché, it's true. The goal isn't
to try and thread the needle with one
perfect move. The goal is to create a
portfolio, and a life, quite frankly,
that can take several hits and allow you
to keep standing.
Put some money where you think it will
grow, some money in cash and cash
equivalents so you can fund your
lifestyle even in times of major
disruption and take advantage of
opportunities, and put some money in an
inflation resistant asset you trust like
gold, energy, or Bitcoin. And avoid the
following mistakes.
Do not try to short the market because
it has to go down. Yes, the everything
bubble will eventually correct. Yes,
valuations are likely to compress, but
trying to time that perfectly with
leverage is a game that has wiped out
many who have come before you.
Avoid debt.
I most certainly understand the power of
debt, but for the average person, it
should be used only sparingly. Debt is
how empires die, and it's exactly how
individuals die financially. In a
repricing event, leverage turns a paper
loss into a permanent loss.
Don't go for hero shorts. Don't use
leverage. No bets on precision timing.
Those are the moves that might feel
smart in this moment, but often end up
being suicidal.
We all need to recalibrate what winning
even looks like. Most people think
winning is about outsmarting everyone
else, beating the market, getting the
highest percentage return, calling the
top, or calling the bottom, being the
genius who saw what nobody else did.
In times as unstable as this, that's not
the game. Read the book 1929 by Andrew
Ross Sorkin to step inside the anatomy
of a collapse so you can feel how it
feels, see what the signs are to look
out for, and how exactly they play out.
In times of profound instability like
this one, the people who win are not the
ones who get the flashiest returns.
They're the ones who don't get wiped out
when everything changes. The biggest
risk right now is not missing the
upside. The biggest risk is sitting in
cash when inflation quietly steals your
purchasing power. Living entirely off of
W-2 income in a world where taxation,
inflation, and job security are all
moving targets at best.
And the most dangerous of all, having no
real assets when money printing is the
only tool left in the government's
arsenal.
So, the mindset shift is this. You're
not trying to be the smartest macro
trader in the room. You're trying not to
be the guy holding only cash and a
paycheck when the music stops. That's
the real game.
So, let me make this simple. I'm going
to speed run what I just walked you
through. These are the seven things you
should do. First, own productive assets.
Second, avoid leverage. Third, build
liquidity. Fourth, diversify your income
streams. Fifth, position for structural
inflation. That doesn't mean
hyperinflation. It means a persistent
bias towards prices drifting higher as
the money supply grows. Own things that
generally benefit from that drift.
Sixth, expect volatility. And seventh,
think globally. I am very pro-American,
but the forces at work right now are a
loop that is almost impossible to pull
people out of. And as I have said many
times,
every country except Japan has ended in
internal conflict or outright revolution
if they spent any meaningful time over
130% debt to GDP. We're nearing 123%
right now, and that number's climbing
fast. Again, this is all my advice to
myself. It's not meant to be a
get-rich-quick plan. It's a
don't-get-destroyed
plan. It's a
be-prepared-for-whatever-happens
Now, to bring this full circle back to
the IRS, the IRS did not get gutted
because of some grand ideological
victory. It was reduced because the
American fiscal model has entered the
part of the big debt cycle where the
math just stops working, and the system
starts cannibalizing its own
institutions just to survive one more
election cycle.
Tariffs also are not salvation. They're
a symptom. Sure, they're clever, maybe
politically convenient, and it allows
you to raise money without admitting
that you're raising taxes, but they're
never going to fill the gap. They're
just a stealth tax with an American flag
wrapped around them.
This moment will absolutely destroy
anyone who insists on believing that the
old rules still apply, that you can sit
in cash, live paycheck to paycheck, and
trust that the system is going to make
it all work out for you. It is not. The
goal is to be one of the few people who
understands the economy right now is
unstable, and instead of leveraging up
and thinking you can get rich timing the
market, you face this moment with
humility and build out an all-weather
strategy.
That, my friends, is the wise man's path
forward when living in a country that's
going broke.
All right. If you want to see me explore
topics like this in real time, be sure
to join me live Wednesdays and Fridays
at 6:00 a.m. Pacific on YouTube, X,
Twitch, or Kick. You can join the debate
or just chill in the community. I'll
have to see you there. All right. Till
next time, my friends. Be legendary.
Take care. Peace.
If you like this conversation, check out
this episode to learn more. In fiscal
year 2023, federal agencies reported 236
billion dollars in improper payments.
And that's not a one-off. In fiscal year
2024, after massive post-COVID
reductions,