“Time Is Running Out!” Peter Schiff on Buying Bitcoin, Dumping Gold, & Getting Rich!
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Peter Schiff argues that inflation remains the primary economic threat, a problem he believes will escalate significantly due to reckless Federal Reserve policies and government interference in free markets. He contends that capitalism naturally allows banks to fail without bailouts, whereas current regulations have made financial crises inevitable by encouraging excessive risk-taking protected by taxpayer money. Reflecting on his 2011 debate at Occupy Wall Street, Schiff notes that while protesters were rightfully angry about the lack of accountability for Wall Street's losses during the Great Financial Crisis, their anger was misdirected; they should instead blame the government for offering bailouts in violation of constitutional principles. He emphasizes that under true capitalism, those who make bad bets must bear the consequences rather than having profits socialized while losses are nationalized. The discussion extends to the housing market and retirement security, where Schiff criticizes government subsidies like mortgage interest deductions and guaranteed loans as distortions that have artificially inflated home prices and created an inventory shortage. He warns against using Bitcoin for retirement savings, labeling it a speculative "blockchain letter" or Ponzi scheme with too much risk compared to tangible assets like gold, which he asserts cannot be replaced by digital currency due to its industrial applications in electronics and aerospace. Regarding Social Security, Schiff describes the program as unconstitutional and bankrupt, citing Senator William Proxmire's admission that benefits would eventually be paid via worthless printed money rather than actual funds. He advocates for eliminating payroll taxes entirely and restructuring debt through default or significant cuts, arguing that private charity is far more efficient at helping the needy than government bureaucracies which primarily serve to perpetuate dependency among voters. Schiff also addresses the impact of minimum wage laws on employment and automation, suggesting that artificially high wages force employers to substitute human labor with machines and AI, thereby accelerating job displacement rather than protecting workers. He draws a historical parallel between modern discrimination against low-skilled workers via minimum wage mandates and past efforts to stop hiring Chinese or African-American immigrants by imposing equal pay requirements. While acknowledging the potential for rapid economic growth driven by AI productivity gains, he cautions that government interventions like Universal Basic Income could rob society of these benefits if displaced workers simply rely on state handouts instead of finding new productive roles. He concludes with advice for young people to embrace risk, work hard, and avoid relying on government safety nets, urging them to consider jurisdictions with lower regulatory burdens or emerging markets where they can build wealth without the constraints of excessive taxation and regulation.
Read the full video transcript
Inflation is the number one economic
problem, and it's going to get a lot
worse as this crisis unfolds. Under
capitalism, the banks would be allowed
to fail. I'm betting that the Fed is
going to continue to behave as
recklessly in the future as it has in
the past. Government wants to keep
people poor. Once I can get somebody
addicted to government money, I've got
their vote for life. Freedom is freedom
from government. It means you're left
alone. You're free to make your own
choices. What's something today that
nobody is listening to?
Well,
Peter, thank you so much for having us
today. We really appreciate it. You're
an economist, stockbroker, predicted the
great financial crisis, and when I first
found you, it was in 2011 or 2012 when
you posted the Occupy Wall Street video,
the I Am the 1% where you went into the
dragon's den, so to speak, and debated
people for 2 hours. And what I was most
surprised about was how contentious some
of the people were and how angry they
were at the entire situation. So, what
do you think they were angry about, and
do you feel like it was misdirected?
Well, I mean, if you remember those
days, the whole point of the protest was
the financial crisis, the bailouts.
People were losing homes or losing their
their home equity, and a lot of people
were angered,
particularly by the bailouts, because
they saw Wall Street really getting the
blame for the crisis, but then getting
bailed out.
So, that nobody was actually held
accountable. Nobody was losing any money
or, you know, nobody went to jail. So,
people were angry, but the whole purpose
of my visit was to redirect that anger
where it belonged. Because the
protesters shouldn't be upset with Wall
Street for accepting the bailout. I
mean, who wouldn't accept the bailout?
They should be angry at the government
for offering the bailouts in the first
place.
That was something that shouldn't have
been done. There was no real
constitutional authority for those
programs. And, you know, a lot of people
may have rightly, partially, or even
totally, you know, in their in their
minds, blamed Wall Street. And so, why
should they get a bailout? Why should it
be heads they win, tails taxpayers lose?
Yeah. You know, if you make a bad bet,
you should have to deal with the
consequences. After all, when they were
making a lot of money, they kept the
profits. Therefore, if there's a loss,
they should be responsible
to pay that loss. Now, they didn't keep
all the profits. They they paid taxes,
but the bailouts really dwarfed what
they what they paid in taxes. So, I just
wanted people to understand that what
was happening and what was upsetting
them
was not capitalism. That under
capitalism, the banks would be allowed
to fail. There would be no bailouts. In
fact, if we had capitalism, the
financial crisis wouldn't have happened.
The conditions that led to the
insolvency of many banks would never
have developed if we had a free market,
if we had capitalism. It was only
government interference in the banking
sector, in the housing and mortgage
sector, that laid the foundation and
made that crisis inevitable.
Do you feel like any of them made any
strong arguments that maybe caused you
to reconsider some of your points? No.
I mean,
uh you know, I mean, there were no real
strong arguments. There was just some
emotion. There were a lot of socialists
there that really didn't understand
capitalism or or the free market. And
and so, I was, you know, trying my best
to educate them. I don't know if I got
any converts
that were actually there that day at
Zuccotti Park, but I do know for a fact
that I managed to persuade a lot of
people who watched uh any one of a
number of the versions that made it on
the YouTube, because there have been,
you know, well over 10 million views.
Just, you know, the one on my channel
alone has about 5 and 1/2 million, but I
didn't even put it up until maybe 5 to 7
years after it happened. A lot of people
still reach out to me to this day. I
mean, I get emails from people who found
that Occupy Wall Street video, and
they're just letting me know how it
changed their lives, how it maybe put
them on the right path to do more
research, but how they were very
left-wing, very socialist-oriented
before
they watched the Occupy Wall Street. But
now, as a result of having watched it
and maybe some other uh research that
that video caused them to do, they've
completely flipped. And now they're 180,
and now they're free market,
libertarian, pro-capitalism. So, it did
work in that respect, even if I didn't
convince,
you know, the 100 people that were
crowded around me.
I may have influenced thousands or tens
of thousands of people uh who weren't
there that day, but who saw the
encounter on on YouTube. I remember I
saw that video for the first time when I
was in high school, and that was a very
transformative time for me,
Thanks. because I was trying Well, Oh,
yeah, there we go. Because I was trying
to like develop my own opinions and see
like, okay, am I more pro-free market?
Am I more pro-free government
intervention? And I think that you
explained it in such a simple way. And
also, fortunately for you, unfortunately
for people maybe looking for the middle
of the road thing, you were talking to
people, they seemed very uneducated. So,
it like made your point come across
extremely clearly. So, I learned a lot
about the, you know, the free market
from that. What would you say you
learned from that experience? Yeah,
there was certainly human nature.
was a big con- contrast that a lot of
people pointed out. If you look at the
comments on YouTube, uh because it it a
lot of it wasn't just what I was saying,
but all the foolish things that the
people in the audience were saying. And
they were very arrogant, too, in their
opinions. Like, you know, they were
there to, you know, to tell me all the
things that I didn't know. And it was
also interesting that, you know, I was
there representing the 1%. You know,
they're oh, we're the 99% as if that
gives them some type of virtuous
position, because they represent the
majority, or at least they purport to
speak
for the majority. And so, I was there
representing the minority, you know, the
1% versus the 99%, but trying to
persuade them why the 99% really owes a
debt of gratitude to the 1%. That their
lives would be demonstrably worse off
if it wasn't for the benefits that they
get from the 1%. And maybe it's not the
people who are in the 1% may not have
started out in the 1%,
but they ended up there because they
were able to create so much value for
the 99%. You know, they create all the
goods and services that the 99% consume
and and take for granted that all these
goods and services are available. Sure,
you have to pay for them,
but you're happy to pay for them because
your life is much better with these
products than without them.
You know, some people may be may regret
the fact that they don't get them for
free, that they have to pay, but in
countries where you get stuff for free,
you get nothing, because there's nothing
there. There's nothing produced. There
needs to be an incentive to go out of
your way to create uh and produce goods
and services for other people. And
capitalism provides that incentive. And
though
the people that create and own the
capital benefit more than any individual
consumer in society, the 99%, but
collectively, the 99% benefit far more
from the work and the efforts and the
ingenuity uh of the 1% than the 1%
themselves. Now, one of your arguments
during that was that you could see it
coming and that you predicted the great
financial crisis. And one of your quotes
back then was that nobody listened to
you.
What's something today that nobody is
listening to? Well, basically the same
thing, because the same problems that I
correctly observed in the years leading
up to the '08 financial crisis,
they're they're here today. It's the
same problems
created by the same source. Only the
scale is larger. The coming
collapse, financial crisis, is much
greater than what we went through in
'08-'09.
Uh but the same people who couldn't see
it coming back then are oblivious to it
now. And they're going to have the same
reaction. Just like in 2008,
people were saying, oh, well, you know,
nobody could have seen this coming. This
just totally came out of left field.
Black swan, 100-year flood, right? Don't
blame anybody for not
knowing that this crazy thing was going
to happen. Of course, ignoring all the
people, myself included, who did see it
coming, because it was predictable.
It was not a black swan. Uh it was a
garden variety swan, if you understand,
you know, what to look for.
Uh and so, we have another gigantic
white swan that they can't see
uh that's looming. That's much bigger,
cuz it's not just going to be a garden
variety financial crisis, like we had in
'08. It's going to be a sovereign debt
crisis. It's not just subprime
uh mortgage borrowers that can't pay
back what they borrowed. It's the US
government that can't pay what it
borrowed. It's going to be a currency
crisis, because when the US government
can't pay, the Fed prints, and that is
going to turn the inflation problem into
a potentially hyperinflation problem,
but certainly a much bigger inflation
problem than the large inflation problem
we have right now. And inflation is the
number one economic problem in the
country,
and it's going to get a lot worse
as this crisis unfolds.
I think for a lot of people, their main
concern today is housing prices. What
are your thoughts on the current state
of the housing market, and do you feel
like there's the potential for a housing
market collapse?
Well, the government has totally screwed
up the housing market. Uh prices for
homes have been,
you know, artificially high
for decades because of government
subsidies. The government guarantees
mortgages and because of that mortgages
get made on much uh looser terms and get
extended to far less credit-worthy
borrowers than would be the case in a
free market. In a free market, down
payments might be 20%
but with the government, people could
buy with nothing down or or 3% or very
low down payments. In a free market,
banks would be a lot more concerned
about the ability to pay.
But once the government guarantees the
mortgage, no one cares if the if the
homeowner can pay cuz if he doesn't pay,
the government will. So this has caused
a lot of excess credit to be pushed into
single-family housing, condos
people have bought homes that otherwise
might have rented and so more um
owner-occupied housing has been built
than might otherwise have been built. We
might have had more multi-family, more
apartments but the government through
subsidies s- kind of pushed everybody
into home ownership
and pushed up the price of homes to the
point that people were really stretching
to borrow a lot of money to buy homes
that they really couldn't afford.
And so the market has been screwed up
for a long time but what really happened
during COVID to screw it up to an even
greater degree was that by slashing
interest rates to zero
and keeping them there
mortgage rates went down into the twos
Mhm.
and lots of people refinanced
and now have these rates, super low
rates
that will never really exist again
locked up. People have maybe 28 years
left, 25 years left on these mortgages,
fixed-rate mortgages and they're never
leaving these homes because that means
giving up that mortgage which is
probably their their greatest asset but
also the banks' greatest liability. One
of the reasons that the banking sector
is in worse shape now than it was in
'07, '08 is because back then they lost
money on defaulting mortgages. So the
mortgages that didn't default, they were
fine. Mhm. It was only when the
borrowers defaulted
where it was a problem and that that was
a big problem for a lot of banks. But
today, it's not about default. It's
about every single mortgage that the
bank owns cuz it's losing money on even
the good mortgages
because they're underwater. They They
have a mortgage that pays them 3 or 4%.
But the Fed funds rate is over 5%.
understanding with some of those loans,
banks flip them. So if they issued a
loan at 3%, they're only holding onto it
for a few months and if some banks hold
onto them
Somebody owns that mortgage and is
underwater and is taking a loss but
banks still own a lot of mortgage debt,
a lot of mortgage-backed securities, a
lot of treasury debt.
All that is underwater. I mean they're
these banks are all insolvent including
the big two big to fail banks but the
government lets them pretend they're not
by not having to mark to market these
massive losses because they they hide
under the assumption that they're going
to hold these investments to maturity,
these mortgages and these bonds but they
may not have that luxury if their
customers need their money for whatever
reason, they're not going to have it cuz
they've lost it in the bond market. But
the other part of your question, so
you have all of these homeowners now
that have locked in these low mortgages
they're not moving. That means those
houses are really off the market and if
you want to buy a house now, there's not
a lot of inventory
and there's not a lot of new
construction because it costs a lot to
build with rising material costs
rising labor costs
and so people are stuck. Home prices are
not falling which they normally would
with a big rise in interest rates like
we've seen. Mortgage rates have gone
from 3% to 8%.
You would expect a big drop in home
prices
but that hasn't happened because the
homes are just not for sale.
So who should buy a home today?
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the episode. So who should buy a home
today? Well, I mean it depends on your
circumstances and and where the home is
located but
for a lot of people and this has been
the case for a long time
uh renting is a better option. Now
another thing that the government has
done too to push people into home
ownership which has helped screw up the
market is the tax consequence. They The
government gives you a tax write-off. If
you buy a home, you can deduct your
mortgage interest but you can't deduct
your rent if you rent a home. I mean
some sometimes there's a
a renter's credit, some local
governments give that but there's much
bigger government subsidies for buying a
home
rather than renting. And so that's
caused people who might otherwise have
been better off renting to buy instead
because they're taking into account the
tax benefits. But in the real economy,
they should be renting but in
the economy created by government they
end up buying.
But you know, that distorts the market
and it and it and it leads to a less
optimal decision
because it's all based on on taxation. A
lot of people don't itemize their
deductions now, they take a standard
deduction.
And so it doesn't matter that the
mortgage interest is tax deductible,
they don't get the deduction. You know,
depending on again your circumstances, a
lot of people are better off renting. A
lot of people who own homes, the only
reason they're they're better off
staying where they are is because their
mortgage rate is so low.
Their mortgage rate may be so low that
if they sold their home and rented,
their rent would be higher than what
their current mortgage is. Now they are
stuck with maintenance, insurance,
taxes, all these costs are going up. So
it's not like the cost of homeownership
isn't rising with inflation, it is
making it even harder for people to buy
a home today because not only do you
have to pay these inflated prices and
then borrow at, you know, 7, 8%
but you have to pay insurance costs that
have basically doubled over the last few
years. You have to pay much higher
maintenance costs. You have to pay
higher local property taxes. I mean
everything related to buying a home is a
lot more expensive. And of course, if
you don't buy a home, if you rent, rents
have gone way up and there's no end in
sight. They're going to keep on rising.
What you explained has been exactly my
experience. I bought a home a couple of
years ago and I got like a 2.8% rate and
if I were to get that same loan, well, a
different loan but at its the same price
of the house, it would be about 80%
more. And so I have no incentive
whatsoever to sell this house. Probably
going to hold onto it forever and I know
if I could pay off the home, I wouldn't
do it because I can get 5% in a in a
bank and a Why would you Why would you
take any money that you have and pay off
a sub-3% mortgage? Plus you get the tax
write-off potentially for that mortgage.
So it the real effective cost is
probably below two. Why would you do
that when yeah, you could take that
exact same money, put it in the bank,
get 5%
and then use that to pay your mortgage
and have money left over. Or you could
do something more productive than a 5%
investment. You could buy, you know,
dividend-paying stocks. Let's say the
ones that we, you know, manage in our
portfolios. A lot of dividend-paying
stocks are paying 7, 8, 9, 10%.
Plus, you know, the stocks could
appreciate over time. They probably
will. So, you know, instead of taking
that money and paying off your mortgage,
you know, buy other assets. Worst case
scenario, you could always rent out the
house because you could probably charge
in rent more than you're paying in in
mortgage. And so let your tenant pay
your mortgage for you and keep the
difference. Now, of course, you do have
to pay
property taxes, maintenance, insurance,
but you know, you can build all that
into the rent. So then what are your
predictions for the future of the
housing market as someone who's looking
and exploring maybe buying another
house? It's hard for me to even justify
because I've only really seen when I
have been in the market really low
rates. When I see now my monthly payment
would be, I'm like, this is crazy.
money on rents. It just doesn't
financially make sense. look, you look
like a young guy, or I mean you are a
young guy. I mean are you married? Do
you have kids? I'm not married. I don't
have kids.
do you need a house for? What do I need
another house? Or any house. Why don't
you just rent? Well, because I got a
2.874% so and it appreciated so it
Right. That was, you know, that was a
a government subsidy. You never should
have even got a rate that low, right?
The Fed gave you that gift.
Um but generally when you're young and
have, you know, no real roots anywhere,
you don't know where you you may end up
settling down, if you may settle down,
who you're going to marry, how many kids
you're going to have, if you're going to
have kids.
Uh those are a lot of things that are
important when it comes to, you know,
planning roots and and buying a home.
But one of the benefits about of being
young and being single is you can kind
of play it by ear. You can go wherever
the wind blows you. And why do you want
to be tied down to a home? Sure, you can
sell your home at a gain right now, but
the market could change. You people
somebody could buy a house today and
it's down. And it could take you months,
maybe years to sell a house unless
you're really willing to move the price
down.
Whereas if you're young, I mean if
you're single and you're renting, I mean
you can get out of a lease very easily.
You know, you get a job offer in another
city,
you know, you meet a girl in another
city, another country and you can go,
right? So it's like renting has a lot of
perks when you know, you're single. And
then you don't need a lot of space. I
mean, you know, you don't have the wife
and kids, you know, maybe do you have a
pet?
No, I have I rent out four four rooms.
You rent out all of the Oh, so
So it was it was an investment. Yeah. So
you're renting
Yeah. You bought it as an investment. So
you could rent out your room and then
you could leave and go where you want
and just keep it as a That's a little
bit different when you're talking about
it as a investment vehicle.
investment. And people have done that,
you know, sometimes college kids, you
know, their parents, well, let's buy a
place and you can get some roommates and
we'll make a little bit of money. But
there are a lot of people that were
pressed into homeownership by
overzealous realtors who make a big
commission and then the idea that, oh
yeah, I'm going to get rich owning a
home. Realtors kind of perverted the
American dream into homeownership. Like
that's the American dream, buy a home
and get rich as if the home makes you
rich. Well, I think for a lot of people
that that's their only means of saving.
Is that when you look back like who
stored it's a forced savings account
No, it's not a forced savings account. A
house depletes your savings. It's a
money pit.
Houses are expensive. You know, how much
money I spend on this house? How much
money I spend on my Connecticut house?
It's crazy the amount of money that a
house costs you. Now, people get bailed
out because I think, oh, the house
appreciates. Not always. It's inflation
really. I mean that's that's that's
doing it. Uh and all that's happening is
your the land is keeping pace. But
houses don't I mean even if somebody
tells you, oh, here's this house that I
sold for a million dollars and I bought
it whatever 10, 20 years ago for
$500,000.
If you think about all the money they
put into that house over that period of
time,
they may not have made any money. You
know, a lot of the houses too that were
bought back then, if you don't redo the
kitchens, redo the bathroom, put on a
new roof, you know, your audio visual
systems are all obsolete, the wiring, I
mean a lot of stuff has to be brought up
to date in order to sell it for the
million dollars. A lot of money was
spent. I mean a lot of these houses too,
if they weren't updated over the years,
they're considered a teardown. What does
that mean a teardown? People say, well,
my house is Teardown means a house that
was once brand new and had a lot of
value
now has zero value. It's going to be
torn down. The only thing that has value
is the land itself. The house is
worthless. Well, I think a lot of people
make the argument and they backdate it
and they say, well, over the last 60
years housing prices have appreciated,
you know, after inflation 1 to 3% and if
I'm not saving any money anyway, but I'm
forced to pay down the mortgage after
those 30 years, I have money sitting
here. It doesn't mean it's a better
investment than the S&P Yeah, I mean if
you're so reckless and like the only way
I'm going to save if I have a mortgage I
have to pay down. But, you know, you
could take the money. I used to tell
people during the housing bubble days,
look, just, you know,
if you can rent for cheaper then
rent
and take all the money you save and
invest it.
You know, open up a brokerage account,
invest the money. Don't just spend it
out. Don't just, you know, buy a fancier
car or take more vacations with the
money you save by renting. Invest that
money, right? In in an actual
investment. You know, but inflation too
is actually been higher than the CPI. So
when people say housing's done two or
three percent more than inflation,
that's because we're not really counting
all the inflation. So it's it's actually
been higher. But, you know, if you look
at what's happened to the dollar, you
know, ever since we've had the Fed, when
the Fed came in in 1913, you only needed
$20 to buy an ounce of gold.
Now you need almost $2,400
to buy an ounce of gold. So over that
100, you know, plus years, the dollar's
lost almost, you know, 99 and a half
percent of its value. You know,
I mean so everything is going to cost 20
times more when the dollar is 99% less
valuable. You know, so in terms of gold,
houses, you know, may not be any more
expensive than they were 100 years ago
as far as how much gold you need to buy
them. Although, you know, now we're
building bigger houses than we built
back then, more square feet, you know,
more bathrooms,
uh stuff like that. So there's more that
goes into them than than did back then.
see housing prices going down? Uh in
some markets I think they will go down
even in nominal terms, but I think that
there's going to be so much inflation
that's going to continue to be created,
it's going to be difficult to see a
meaningful reduction in nominal housing
prices. But in in real terms, right? In
terms again, in terms of an ounce of
gold, how many ounces will you need to
buy the average home? There I think you
can see a crash
uh in home prices. And I think you might
be able to see
the decline by just comparing
the price of a house to what you pay for
groceries,
what you pay for electricity, what you
you know, there you might see, gee, the
house is actually a lot cheaper now
compared to my grocery bill.
Um but it doesn't mean that it's
actually Sure. gone down. Yeah. And when
you're talking about investing the
difference in the stock market, how do
you feel about stock prices? Because I
believe the S&P just hit an all-time
high. At least when I was on my way
here, we hit a brand new record.
Yeah, stocks and especially US stocks
are I think overvalued. So no, I would
not just take the money I saved by
renting and just buying overpriced
stocks
as opposed to overpriced real estate. So
I think you have to be a lot more
selective in the names that you invest
in. And if you, you know, you you can't
do your own homework then hire somebody
who could do it for you like me or my
company, Euro Pacific Asset Management.
I mean we find a lot of the values
outside the US, the compelling
um stocks that we could buy at
attractive prices, get good yields. But
I also think that there's a major dollar
decline coming, potential dollar crisis.
And so I want to be invested abroad. I
want to be invested in countries that I
think will
uh have currencies that will rise in
relation to the dollar. And I want to
invest in companies that can thrive in
an environment where the US consumer is
broke and no longer buying stuff.
So I think one of the arguments against
that and one of the things that's
constantly surprised me is the Federal
Reserve's resiliency to go through and
keep the stock market high in a sense.
And every time I think, here it comes,
here we go, the Federal Reserve will
step in, they bail everybody out, they
inject a lot of money into the economy.
I think COVID was a great example of
that where everything shut down and the
Fed just went nuts. Yeah, you know, you
really have a very cozy, unhealthy
relationship between
the Fed,
the government and Wall Street. It's
just one big club, revolving door of
personnel. Yeah.
And the Fed through its policy has
really engendered to build
an asset-based
economic model where the wealth effect
is very important to driving consumption
confidence.
And so the Fed feels that they need to
keep the stock market up because if the
stock market crashes, everybody's poorer
who owns stocks, so they spend less. Now
we're in a recession, people lose their
jobs. So the Fed kind of thinks, well,
what's good for Wall Street is good for
the economy. And of course, that works
great for Wall Street, you know, and so
and it again, it's the same the same
economists that work at the government
work work for Wall Street. They go they
go back and forth, right? They're all
they're the same people, they're all
buddies.
And of course,
some of the biggest donors
are, you know, Wall Street bankers.
You look at
the people who write the big checks, not
only just directly to the campaigns
because those are not the big checks.
It's the PACs, right? So the people that
are writing the, you know, 50, $100,000
plus checks to the PACs that are working
to reelect particular, you know, people
they are disproportionately on Wall
Street. That's not a coincidence. You
know, it's not that these guys are just
so patriotic that they really feel that
it's important to donate to the
candidate who's going to do good for the
country. No, they're making an
investment in those candidates, just
like anything else, and they're
evaluating it based on a cost-benefit.
Like, how much is it going to cost me to
buy this senator this congressman, and
what's my return on my investment going
to be? Cuz I'm not doing it out of the
goodness of my heart because I'm a
patriotic American. No, it's because I
want the politician in office that's
going to do things that make me money.
So, how do you feel comfortable betting
against that? Cuz don't they say don't
fight the Fed?
I'm not fighting the Fed. The Fed's
going to keep creating inflation, so I
want to own assets that will benefit
from what the Fed is doing.
You know, I'm betting that the Fed is
going to continue to behave as
recklessly in the future as it has in
the past, that it's never going to learn
from its mistakes, and it's going to
keep repeating them. And it's going to
repeat them until it basically destroys
the dollar, sends the price of gold to
the moon. And so, that's what I'm
investing for. I'm investing for the end
game because I know how the game is
going to end. Most people who are
playing it don't even realize the game
that they're playing. Don't They don't
get the rules. They've just been winning
for so long, you know, they think they
know how the game ends or how the game
is played. They don't. Right? It's like
a game of musical chairs, but they don't
know the music's going to stop one day.
They just think it's going to keep on
playing, and and but it's going to
surprise them when it stops, and you
know, they're not in a chair.
So, how are they playing the game? Is
that mostly with tech stocks because it
seems like to me the Nasdaq and the S&P
are the clear winners over the last 20
years or so, and that's where a lot of
people seem to be investing the bulk of
their money. Yeah, I mean, they are
playing the game by buying the momentum,
buying whatever the crowd is buying,
buying whatever is going up.
And it doesn't matter
what the fundamental value of the
underlying business is. I mean, in some
cases, it doesn't matter if the
underlying businesses have any
fundamental value at all, or do they
even care? All that matters is what's
the price,
and where is it going, and how many
people are buying it. Look,
the price of anything can go up if
people keep buying it. It's just that
when they stop buying it that you have a
problem. You look at cryptocurrencies,
right? They have zero fundamental value.
Uh so, they're probably the most
speculative investment, not probably are
the most speculative investment, yet
people have more profit in Bitcoin if
they had been in it from the early days
than in anything else. But, all these
things are going to ultimately collapse
when inflation rears its head in a way
that people realize it's it's here to
stay
and recognize that the Fed is all talk
and no bite, you know, bark and no bite
when it comes to
being able to contain inflation, being
able to bring it anywhere near 2%, let
alone back down to 2%. Although, we'd be
better off with inflation below 2%. I
mean, 2% is not some holy grail that we
need to shoot for, and that inflation is
at 1% that that's somehow a problem that
the Fed needs to solve. I mean, the only
problem with 1% is that it's not zero.
I'd rather have no inflation than 1%,
and in fact, I'd rather have minus 1%
than prices staying the same. You know,
everybody wants lower prices. The lower
the better. The less stuff costs, the
more stuff I can buy. Even the
businesses want to be able to lower
prices.
Because if they can lower their prices,
they'll sell more stuff. And so, how do
businesses try to lower prices? They try
to lower their costs.
And what what a businessman cares about
is the margin. As long as I can sell
above my cost, I'm making money, and
then I can make even more money if I can
ramp up the volume.
But, what about Japan's argument where
they've had a series of
deflationary times where people are
afraid to spend their money because it
just becomes more valuable the next
year.
That's very bad logic. I mean, people
aren't afraid to spend money.
Maybe incentivized. If I wait a year to
buy this couch, I could buy it way
cheaper, and if I don't need it now, I'm
going to wait.
But, what are you going to sit on for
the next year? On the floor? You know,
it's
it's an upgrade. Well, but I mean, yeah,
but the question is how long do you want
to sit on a shitty couch while you're
waiting for the price of the couch you
really want to go down? I mean, what
what real experience will tell you is
when it comes to consumer goods, an
investment is a different situation. If
you're thinking about buying an asset as
an investment, and you think the price
is too high, well, you're going to wait
for it to come down. Right? But, when
you're talking about consumer goods,
which is, you know, what all this is
about,
people don't wait. If you're hungry, you
buy food. You don't say, "Well, if I
starve myself, I can get the food
cheaper next week." You know, if you
need clothing, you go out and buy it. If
you need a new cell phone,
you buy it. I mean, you know that if you
just wait another year, you'll be able
to get that phone for less, but you
don't want to wait. You want to use the
phone right now. Maybe you need the
phone, or you're just tired of the phone
you have. You want to get a new phone.
You may not even be alive next year,
right? I mean, so who knows? You can get
hit by a bus, right? Waiting for the
price of a phone. And we know
that doesn't happen, right?
Computers,
TVs, they get cheaper almost every year,
even now, but people still buy them. I
mean, the first cell phone, you guys
don't even remember the 1980s with the
Gordon Gekko cell phone, which was like
a huge brick. Hardly anybody bought
those phones when they came out. And
it's not because people didn't want
them. Everybody wanted one. They were
just so expensive, few people could
afford them. The reason that everybody
has cell phones now is because they're a
lot cheaper. The first television sets
that came out in the 1940s, you know,
they were huge. They were big piece of
furniture with a tiny like a 2-in
screen, and you could only watch them
for maybe two or three hours a day, and
it was in black and white, and you know,
it was a horrible picture. They cost as
much as a car.
Who bought them?
Really rich people that wanted to show
off that they had a TV. Now, the middle
class, sure, they they they were they
would like one, but they just they
couldn't afford it.
Um and so, when prices go down, then
people buy. So, people don't wait
indefinitely for prices to go down
because there is a present value
to having something today
versus having it a year from now, two
years from now.
And you have And so, the economists that
that believe this nonsense are
forgetting about attributing a value
to having something now. So, even if I
know the price is going to go down, I
can buy it today for $100. I can buy it
a year from now for $95. Am I going to
pay $5 to have it today and get to use
it for the next year, rather than
waiting a year?
Now, in terms of that, how do you feel
about the US dollar as a reserve
currency, and do you feel like that's
potentially threatened?
It is threatened. It's not potentially
threatened. I mean, it it's it There is
a threat right now. The status is in
jeopardy, and it's going to be lost.
And you can see that
in the record high price of gold.
Central banks are major buyers of gold.
Where are they getting the money to buy
their gold? They're selling dollars. Why
do they want the gold? Cuz they want to
get rid of the dollars. They don't want
them. They're They're reducing their
dependency on the dollar. And not only
did they have an economic incentive to
get rid of the dollar because the dollar
is going to gradually, you know, and
then rapidly depreciate because of the
enormity of our deficits and the money
that we have to print to monetize it,
but we created an added incentive, Biden
did, with sanctions that were put on
Russia because we didn't like what
Russia did. Russia invaded the Ukraine,
and we said, "Well, you know, we don't
like that, and therefore, we're going to
take your dollars. We're going to kick
you out of the global Swift system.
We're going to confiscate, you know,
your treasuries." And you know, right or
wrong, you know, whether you you know,
agree with Putin or disagree with Putin,
right? That's immaterial. Doesn't
matter. All that matters is we told the
world America decides
whether you get to keep your dollars,
whether you get to keep your treasuries,
and we have to approve of your conduct.
And if we don't like what you're doing,
it may not have to be a war. Could be
anything.
This is the precedent.
We don't We're going to We're going to
take your dollars away from you. Well,
who the hell wants to be in that
position? Especially country like China,
who's our biggest creditor, who's got
trillions worth of our treasuries. I
mean, how much anti-China rhetoric is
there in the US? Look at all the tariffs
that they just put on imposed today on
Americans who want to buy Chinese
products, right? China is vilified all
the time in the media by US politicians.
If I was China, I wouldn't want any US
dollars. I wouldn't want any treasuries.
I mean, it's only a matter of time
before we sanction them and freeze their
assets.
How much of that is justified with
China? None of it. I don't think any of
it is justified. Our problems are are
homemade. They're not made in China. I
mean, just about everything else is,
but not our problems. Our monetary our
economic problems, our inflation
problem, that's here. I mean, Washington
is the enemy, not not Beijing. But,
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so much StreamYard and back to the
episode. So, do you think a lot of the
issues that we hear about with China?
Because I hear quite a lot of it from
CNBC, from the news. Do you think that's
just American propaganda to make us
dislike China? Well, it's more about
scapegoating China. I mean, it's not
like they just want Americans to hate
China, but they'd like Americans to
blame China for problems that US,
you know, politicians create, so it
takes them off the hook, right?
Everybody likes a good scapegoat, right?
And so, the Chinese, you know, they make
a good scapegoat, right?
Uh and you know, the Chinese government,
of course, is communist.
Um but they're not really communist.
I mean, you know, I mean, just like
we're not really capitalist, but there's
a lot of capitalism that happens in
China, just like there's some capitalism
in America. In many cases, there's more
capitalism in China than there's in
America. It just depends on
uh the industry.
But both economies are kind of a mixture
between capitalism and socialism. It's
just a question of the the degrees. But,
you know, the Chinese have accumulated
enormous surpluses trading with the
United States. And that basically
amounts to a giant subsidy to the United
States.
China has been willing to subsidize the
United States. Now, they haven't
necessarily done this out of the
kindness of their hearts. They have
accumulated
a lot of our treasuries and we owe them
a lot of money.
But the reality is we ain't going to
pay.
So, you know, either we're going to
default or we're going to inflate.
And I think at this point the Chinese
recognize
this predicament and they want to
diminish their holdings. So, they can
cut their losses. That's going to have
some profound consequences for the
American standard living and not in a
good way, in a bad way, because our our
standard living's going to go down
because
so much of the stuff that we buy is
going to get a lot more expensive.
How fast do you think this could all
unravel and how fast do you think it
could all be solved?
It's going to be very quick cuz that's,
you know, you look at any situation
where something blew up, whether it's,
you know, here in Puerto Rico where I
am, where we had a Puerto Rico had a
debt crisis and major default. For
years, it was obvious to me and it
should have been obvious to everybody
that Puerto Rico
had no capacity to repay
the money it was borrowing.
But for years, nobody even cared. They
just kept loaning the money anyway.
And then all of a sudden, people cared
and then it was a crisis. Same same
thing happened, remember in Greece when
they had a crisis. The problems are
there hiding in plain sight.
It just doesn't matter until it matters.
And so, that's the same thing with the
United States. It's just that
it hasn't mattered for a long time, but
fundamentally, it's always mattered. And
and and there's going to be a catalyst
which is going to
result in a aha, you know, emperor has
no clothes moment
where everything is going to collapse
quickly in a crisis. So, it can fall
apart very quickly. The problems can't
be solved quickly. They are solvable,
but not within
the, you know, the political
uh situation that exists today. And even
if we had politicians
willing to
cast votes that actually would help the
country in the long run. There would be
a lot of harm
in the short run, right? It's it's kind
of like the movie The Matrix, right? I
mean, you're living a pretty good life
in the Matrix, but somebody could burst
your bubble by explaining the actual
situation of your life.
And if you want to wake up into reality,
that's a rude awakening to, you know, go
into the that world of, you know, that
of what the world really looked like.
Uh and you can't, you know, be in that
pretend world. Now, a lot of people
would prefer to live in the pretend
world of the Matrix, but the problem is
what happens if something happens to the
the the Matrix breaks down and now
you're you're thrust into reality,
right? Uh but the voters don't want to
tell or the politicians don't want to
tell the voters they're in the Matrix.
So, what needs to be done? We need to,
you know, rebuild the
industrial nation that has
been destroyed over the years by taxes
and regulations.
We need to rebuild savings. Americans
have to stop living beyond their means.
They have to stop buying stuff they
can't afford. They have to save their
money, delay gratification. You know,
people have to work, you know,
productively,
not just in the service sector, but we
have to produce.
Um you know, so and asset prices have to
come down. People are going to have to
lose money.
Interest rates have to go up
even more than they have. This is going
to be very disruptive
for a lot of people. And a lot of people
are going to have to be told that
they're not going to be able to retire,
that, you know, their retirement savings
are inadequate, that Social Security,
Medicare are broke and you can't, you
know, you're not going to get what was
promised to you.
Cuz government has to cut a lot of
spending. And, you know, the politicians
don't want to tell the voters that
because the voters don't want to hear
that and they're not going to vote for
them. But that doesn't mean that the
voters are going to get all the benefits
that they have been promised. They're
not going to get them.
All right? They may be they may receive
the the money, but the money's not going
to buy very much. And that's really what
counts. It doesn't matter that I get a
Social Security check. What matters is
can I buy food
right, with my Social Security check?
And the answer is no,
right? Then what difference does it
make? You know, and it's interesting
because even my father pointed this out
in his book, The Biggest Con. And this
is back from the 1970s. He had published
an excerpt from the Congressional
Record.
And this was William Proxmire who said
this, who was the chairman of the Senate
Committee on Money and Banking. And they
were talking back then about Social
Security and what to do and, you know,
they ultimately raised taxes and stuff
like that. But they talked about the,
you know, the precarious situation
of the program back then. Proxmire said,
"Look, you know, at the end of the day,
Social Security obligations will be
paid. America, we have a printing press
and we're going to use that printing
press to pay these benefits. The
benefits may be worthless when the
recipients receive them, but they are
going to be paid." And so, this is a a
high-powered senator admitting
that Social Security benefits may be
worthless, but people are going to get
them. And that's a big statement. And
because and if Social Security benefits
are worthless, then the dollar is
worthless cuz that's what Social
Security payments are. So, Proxmire was
saying, "All of our money may be
worthless, but, you know, we're going to
keep on printing it. We're going to
we're going to keep all of our
commitments." What I think is much
better is for the government to
acknowledge that it's over-promised and
can't deliver and make cuts to
government spending, including
restructuring the 35 trillion dollar
national debt that's growing
exponentially, coming in clean with our
creditors that we can't pay and
defaulting and,
you know, offering to pay less than a
hundred cents on the dollar. These are
This is what we have to do. If we don't
do that and we just print money instead
so that we can pay everybody in full,
the losses are going to be much greater.
The real losses that result from
inflation will dwarf the losses that
would have resulted from default. So,
what do you think we should do then with
the people that have paid in their
entire life into Social Security and
maybe they're just about to receive it
or maybe they got a couple more years to
go before they can start receiving those
benefits. That's a really tricky one. I
remember learning in in US history
actually back in high school of the
first person ever to contribute to
Social Security.
Yeah, I'm a Fuller. Yeah. And how much
did she pay in if you remember? Hardly.
She lived to be 99. That was the most
ironic thing of all is that she paid in,
I think it was like some very small
amount. It could be hundreds, could be
like tens of dollars, but she closed it
like 40,000 or something.
Yes, she received back like thousands of
percent of what she contributed. Yeah,
that's the case with all Ponzi schemes
or pyramids or chain letters. If you get
in at the very beginning,
you make a lot of money. The gains from
the people that come in early
are covered by the losses for the people
who come in late, right? A lot of the
people in Bitcoin are going to find this
out the hard way, right? People made
money in Bitcoin who got in early and
that's because all these other people
got in late
who are going to lose money. But, you
know, what I would do if I was, you
know, in charge or could do it. You
know, I mean, first of all, it it just
reminds me of the of Animal House. You
see that movie? There's a line in that
movie, Otter,
out of the main character, and I don't
want to use the F-word, but he's like,
"You effed up. You trusted us." Right?
That's kind of what, you know, this
makes me think of. People really effed
up because they trusted the government
with their retirement, and the
government blew it. Right? The whole
purpose, the pretext that the Roosevelt
administration used when it created
Social Security, which never should have
been created, completely
unconstitutional, was that
people are not smart enough to save for
their retirement, so we need the
government to do it for them. And that's
why initially it didn't apply to the
self-employed because the government
said, "Well, if you're smart enough to
run your own business, well, you can
save for your own retirement." But if
you're just the average Joe Schmo who's
got a job, well, you're too dumb to
save, so the government's going to take
your money by force
and save it for you. Of course, the
government spent every nickel of Social
Security tax they collected. Right? They
saved nothing. They did a worse job than
anybody could have possibly done. What I
would do now, right? Instead of just
creating inflation and just spreading
the pain kind of across the board
equally without any regard to uh how it
affects people. Right? Because if we
just print a lot of money, we don't make
any cuts to Social Security, and we just
print a lot of money,
Warren Buffett's Social Security is
going to go down by the same amount as
his secretary. So, people who really
need Social Security, they're going to
be hit exactly the same as people who
just use their Social Security, you
know, to tip uh the the the caddies at
their country club. I would rather say,
"Look, Social Security is bankrupt. It
doesn't work. Program is over, right?
We're ending it, never should have had
it. We're eliminating the payroll tax
for everybody. You're all off the hook.
No one has to pay 15% anymore payroll
tax, right? Now, we got to deal with
this mess because now we have all these
people who are broke, who paid these
high taxes all their lives, and there's
no money, right? So, what are we going
to do? Well, let's develop a
transitionary program. We'll qualify
people based on means for now, right?
So, if you're destitute and Social
Security is all you got, all right,
well, we'll we'll have a maybe we'll buy
you an annuity. There's some way that we
can get you something. You know, if
you're wealthy, if you have income, if
you have assets, you know, tough luck,
right? You screwed up. You you you
trusted us. Because, you know, if
somebody's got enough money to take care
of themselves, then they got to take
care of themselves. Because otherwise,
what you're really doing is Social
Security is taxing the poor to subsidize
the rich. The young and the poor are
being taxed to subsidize the old and the
rich. And and why if I'm a poor kid,
right? Let's say I'm not going to
inherit any money from my parents,
right? My parents don't have a lot of
money. Why should I work to pay Social
Security taxes so some rich guy doesn't
have to spend his money so that when he
dies, his kids inherit a bunch of money
that I'm not going to inherit. I mean,
so if you can afford to take care of
yourself, then you got to do it. And the
money you paid into Social Security,
well, it's gone. It was stolen by the
government, right? Just think of it as
another income tax because legally,
that's what it is. If you actually look
at the law, the Social Security tax is
another income tax. Nobody is entitled
to anything, you know, just because you
paid the tax, you're no more entitled to
your Social Security money back than
your income tax back. And the money all
went into the general revenue. All the
money that was collected in Social
Security, that was used to fight the
Vietnam War, the space program, the Iraq
War, uh O- Obamacare. What all all all
of this it came from the same pool of
money, right? So, we've got to come to
terms with this
and and figure out the best way to deal
with it. But, the way we're going to
deal with it is the worst possible way.
We're just going to wipe out the value
of the money, and everybody is going to
suffer. So, then what do you believe
should be done for people that don't
make the right decisions for themselves?
Do you believe in a full-blown,
unmitigated, laissez-faire economy, or
do you think there should still be some
social programs to help those people? We
were listening to Jordan Peterson
recently, and he had a really
interesting argument, which was an
observation of a study done by the US
military, which is that people with an
IQ beneath 83, which is 10% of the
population, they are positively
counterproductive in any work
environment.
Well, I would say the government makes
decisions that are of lower quality than
your average 80 80
IQ person.
So, I would lower than I I Look, I would
trust individuals
to make their own decisions more than I
would trust a third party who doesn't
bear any
responsibility or consequence from those
decisions, right? I think by and large
people can make the right decision. I
mean, after all, we trust people to
vote. I mean, I mean, if you don't think
that people can make the right
decisions, then they shouldn't be
voting, right? Because that's a decision
that they shouldn't make either, right?
many people don't make the right
decisions, even if you lay it out.
to make the right decision financially
than to make the right decision
politically on who to vote for. You
know, so that voting is something that
I'm more concerned about than people
that saving for their retirement. But
But, this is what This is how it should
be. It's a free market. You get the
benefits of your good decisions. You
suffer the consequences of your bad
decisions. You learn from your mistakes,
right? These are These are the proper
incentives, right? If you want to
encourage good decisions and discourage
bad decisions, you allow people to
enjoy the benefits when they when they
do something right and be and and the
suffer the consequences when they do
something wrong. And to the extent that
people just make a series of bad
decisions
and find themselves
in a destitute situation, charities are
there. That's why charities exist, and I
believe that humans, individuals,
will take better care of their fellow
human beings than government will. That
individually,
we are better at charity than
collectively. And all you have to do is
look at the numbers. You know,
government-run programs, better than 90%
of the cost goes to finance the
government that provides the benefit.
So, the government takes a dollar out of
your pay, and 10 cents goes to help
people, 90 cents goes to perpetuate the
bureaucratic machine. Whereas in private
charities, you donate a dollar, 90 cents
goes to uh the people that you're trying
to help, and like 10 cents goes to
administer the charity. So, and and I
think private charities are more
concerned about helping get people out
of poverty, whereas government programs
are more concerned about trapping them
in poverty perpetually so they never get
out because they want to maintain the
necessity of the program, and they want
to keep the voters coming back for more.
You know, once I can get somebody
addicted to government money, I've got
their vote for life. And so, government
wants to keep people poor. The private
sector doesn't want them to be poor,
right?
Uh it wants to help them out of poverty,
not trap them in poverty. That's a
really good point because I was going to
say, for the sake of playing devil's
advocate, a lot of people argue, and I I
think somewhat rightfully so, that we do
need like a social and economic fabric
because if we don't have that and people
go into a position of destitution, or
they go into being impoverished, that
affects everybody.
But also, people think, "Look, if we
didn't have government doing all this
stuff,
we'd all we'd all get to keep our
money." I mean, if if you think about
America from 1790 when we started really
as a country, until, you know,
World War II, when we really started
paying the income tax. I mean, even
though
we got the income tax in 1913,
very few people paid it until 1942,
right? There was no withholding tax.
Nobody had taxes taken out of their pay.
That was all to fight the war. So, if
you think we need an income tax, then
you you must think we needed World War
because without World War we never would
have had an income tax. But if you think
about America from 19, you know, 80 70
90-ish to um 1942, what did Americans do
with all their money when they didn't
have income taxes to pay, right? And
they didn't have Social Security taxes.
That didn't even start until the '30s,
and that was 1%, and it didn't even it
didn't even apply to you if you were
self-employed, right? So, what did
Americans do with all that money that
they don't have anymore, that the
government takes for them? Well, apart
from just having more money for
themselves, they donated to charity,
right? And so,
most people
would think, "Hey, if you didn't have to
pay any more income taxes, if you didn't
have to pay any more Social Security
taxes, if you got to keep pretty much
everything you earned, would you be
willing to
voluntarily take some of that money
and help out people that needed your
help? Would you be willing to do that? I
mean, most people Most people would do
it if they had the money. The reason a
lot of people don't donate to charity
today is they can barely afford to
support themselves, and they figure,
"Why do I need to? The government's
already taken 30%, 40%, 50% of my
income. That's all the charity I can
afford." Right? People are stuck,
you know, because they the government is
taking their money. Uh so, I think if we
had a free market,
everything would be better, and there'd
be a lot more charitable giving. What
are your thoughts about bankruptcy in a
free market? Because couldn't you argue
that getting loans discharged in
bankruptcy would be counterproductive to
bearing the consequences of a maybe bad
decision?
No, I mean, I don't think that um
bankruptcy
um is is a a barrier to the free market.
I mean, we you know, to the extent that
somebody gets themselves
into a financial predicament
but that there's no way out. I mean, a
bankruptcy, whether it's an individual
or company, is a legal way of dealing
with it. Remember, when you go bankrupt,
I mean, you know, you've got to lose
everything with you maybe with a few
minimal exceptions. But, I mean, the
risk of bankruptcy is there
when people enter into
uh lending relationships with other
people,
the probability or the possibility of
bankruptcy is there.
And so, the the the higher that
possibility, the higher the interest
rate you're going to charge or you may
not make a loan at all. But, I think
it's it's a tool that the market can
develop in the court system
uh that, you know, that that could be
advantageous to make
um you know, the economy function
better. I mean, if you knew that, all
right, I I mean, if I have debts, I
mean, they're going to they're going to
pound me for the rest of my life and I'm
never going to have any opportunity to
get out of a hole that I've
unfortunately found myself in.
But, you know, people bear the
consequences. If you go bankrupt,
it's a public record. I mean, people are
going to know that. People are going to
take that into account
uh in other business dealings that
they're going to have with you. Default
is part of lending. I mean, that's just
going to happen.
And uh so, no. I mean, I you know, but
what I don't like is a
government-guaranteed
loan.
That's what I don't like. I don't like
the government saying,
"If you loan money to this company or
this individual, the US government will
guarantee it." Why? Cuz the minute that
happens,
that person has an advantage. They're
going to get the loan.
But, somebody else is going to get
denied a loan because the government's
not guaranteeing it. But, that other
person or government may be more
creditworthy.
And the whole point about loans is
allocating capital.
And you want allocate you want to
allocate capital to its highest and best
use.
And that's happens in a free market.
But, in when the government,
you know, puts its foot on the scale
and says, "Oh, this borrower is going to
get a government guarantee." Well, then
that borrower is going to get the money
even if it's not the highest and best
use of those funds.
And when it comes to retirement, it
seems like a lot of people are turning
to Bitcoin. What do you think about
that?
And do you have anything good to say
about Bitcoin and maybe a positive with
it?
I mean, first of all, if people are
using retirement money to buy Bitcoin, I
mean, that's an even bigger mistake.
Yeah, there was a study that came out
that Gen Z and Millennials predominantly
were relying on cryptocurrency to fund
their retirement.
Yeah, well, the good news there is their
retirement is a long ways off. So,
they'll have plenty of time to re-earn
the money that they lose
in in crypto.
that.
But, if somebody is already at
retirement age and they're putting that
money into crypto, they're going to have
a very short retirement.
don't think there's any chance that a
cryptocurrency investment today, 50
years from now, could provide a future
retirement?
I mean, not not a not a chance. Not a
chance that's high enough that I'd I'd
want to gamble on it. When you say
there's no chance, I mean, you know, I
mean, sure, I mean,
we could be invaded by aliens. I mean,
there's a chance of that. Right? I mean,
I I I discount it as a viable
probability, but hey, anything could
happen. So, it is possible that this
pyramid, Ponzi, chain letter, whatever
you want to call it. I like, you know,
it's a blockchain letter. Can it go on
for 50 more years? Well, it's gone on
for 15, but
I mean, it already to me it looks like
it's getting pretty top-heavy. I mean,
we've basically spent the last 3 years
going sideways
uh with tons of money coming in, tons of
advertising, tons of promotion.
And they really haven't managed to get
the price, you know, much higher than
60,000. We got to a little bit above 70
briefly, but I think that there's far
more risk of it blowing up
than of it mooning.
You know, the people that are buying it
and and they're talking about not just
$100,000 Bitcoin,
but, you know, $500,000, million dollar,
multi-million dollar Bitcoin.
Cathie Wood's prediction was a million
dollars by 2030 is what she believes.
Yeah, well, I mean, who cares what she
believes or I don't even know if she
believes it. I mean, she's just saying
it, right? She says a lot of nonsense. I
mean, people have lost a lot of money in
her funds. I mean,
even though the funds themselves may be
higher than they were 5 years ago based
on where all the money came in, you
know, people have gotten clobbered by
getting those funds cuz she bought all
kinds of overpriced stocks when the
money was flooding in.
And I think that, you know,
a lot of her stuff is still going to go
down a lot from where it is now. But,
she does have a big position in
crypto-related stocks.
And so, naturally, she's going to be,
you know, optimistic on crypto. You
know, whether it's
she owns those stocks because she's
optimistic on crypto or because she owns
those stocks, she's optimistic on
crypto. It's like, I don't know what the
cart is or what the horse is.
that you have a lot of gold or that you
have a gold position and therefore
you're pessimistic about Bitcoin because
could Bitcoin threaten gold? Yeah, I
mean, in theory, right? They're saying
Bitcoin is digital gold. So, why do I
need real gold if I can have digital
gold? But, the problem is it's not
digital gold. I mean, that's just BS.
Right? There's you you you can't replace
gold with Bitcoin in any of its actual
use cases, right? I mean, I have here I
mean, I'm wearing this watch, right?
This watch is has gold in it, right? And
this this is a I got this gold bracelet
from Mené, right? mene.com, right? They
can't make this bracelet with Bitcoin.
You want to make this bracelet, you
know, you can you need gold. Now, you
can make you can make one out of silver
if you don't want to have one out of
gold. You can use a different metal.
But, if you want a gold bracelet, you
can't use Bitcoin, right? Um computer
chips,
there's gold in there, little bits of
gold to conduct electricity. You can't
put Bitcoin in the computer chip instead
of gold.
You know, they use gold in dentistry.
Uh they use it in aerospace.
Uh
there's all sorts of industrial
applications. In none of those
applications can you substitute Bitcoin,
right? It's It's not a metal, let alone
a precious metal. You know, it's not
even tangible. It's a string of numbers.
And there's 20,000 other
cryptos
that you could use if you instead of
uh Bitcoin. So, it's just to me
um
the whole thing, you know, is just a
giant blockchain letter. I you know,
people
attribute value to Bitcoin that it
doesn't have. It has a price. I mean, I
don't argue with that. I mean, you can
put a price on anything. I mean, look at
Peloton during the pandemic. Peloton
shares were 170. Now, they're three. So,
was Peloton worth $170 a share? Well,
that's what the price was because some
idiot was willing to buy it at that
price.
Uh it doesn't mean the company was, you
know, fundamentally worth that much. So,
sure, someone could buy Bitcoin and pay
$64,000 for it. Does that mean it's got
$64,000 worth of value? No. It's just
got that market value because somebody
was willing to pay that price.
you think Bitcoin is actually worth? I
don't know what it's worth.
It may not be worth anything. It may be
worth some nominal amount. I mean, what
if it's worth $100? I don't know. Maybe
it is. I I don't know. At this point,
it's irrelevant whether it's worth zero
or $100
because if it goes to $100, it might as
well go to zero for 99.9% of the people
who own it, right? They're going to be
effectively wiped out
if Bitcoin goes to 100. Even if it goes
to 1,000, right? From 60,000,
right? You've lost pretty much
everything. It has to be worth,
you know, you know, something near the
current price,
which I I can't imagine what Bitcoin can
possibly do
that would create that much value. And
for a lot of the use cases that people
are coming up with, like ordinals,
right? Like, hey, I created an ordinal,
too. It is called the golden triumph,
right? It's a picture of an arm holding
up a gold bar,
you know,
I put it on a on an ordinal on the block
Bitcoin blockchain. And you can go you
can buy them at Magic Eden now. We sold
out of them. There was like 50 of them.
But, they're trading. You can buy an
ordinal. But, you only need you can put
the ordinal on on a Satoshi. That's all
you need is one. There's 21 quadrillion
Satoshis.
I mean, there's enough for everybody in
the world to have a few hundred thousand
Satoshis. And so, I don't see where
there's a shortage of these things. You
don't need a whole Bitcoin, right? You
just need a Satoshi. There's no real
difference between a Satoshi and a
Bitcoin other than the fact that a
Bitcoin is a whole bunch of Satoshis.
Now, people say, "Well, but an ounce of
gold is just a whole bunch of specs of
gold." Yes, but you can't do anything
with a spec, right? You actually need a
specific quantity. You want to make this
gold Rolex,
I think there's maybe 6 oz of gold in
there.
You can't make it with 1 oz. You need 6
oz, right? You need that specific
quantity to do that job. But, I don't
need any quantity of Satoshis to do any
job because you can't do anything with
them. All you can do is give them to
somebody. And so, I don't see what's so
unique about that. I mean, you do all
these other cryptocurrencies, you can
transfer. And look, I can use PayPal. I
can use Venmo. I can use Zelle. There's
all sorts of ways that I can transfer
uh payment to somebody over the internet
cheaply, quicker than Bitcoin. And if
you really like
um a digital currency, then tokenize
gold. I mean, there there's there's
already a bunch of these tokens out
there. They you know, there'd be a lot
more if it wasn't for the regulatory
cost. But,
all you have to do is take gold,
tokenize it, and now gold can circulate
as a digital payment. I can own gold and
I can assign, transfer
that ownership to anybody in the world
instantly, practically free.
And I'm just instead of sending you my
gold, I'm sending you the token that
signifies ownership of that gold. The
gold just stays in a vault and the
ownership goes from one person to
another.
What do you think it would take for
Bitcoin to go to $100? The absence of
buying. It doesn't even take a lot of
selling. It just takes the absence of
buying. Right? Because if people decide
they don't want to buy Bitcoin anymore.
And why do people want Bitcoin? The The
vast majority of the buying
is because people think they're going to
make a lot of money buying it, right?
They They They think that the price of
Bitcoin is going to go up and they're
going to get rich. And then they're
going to sell their Bitcoin and buy a
car, a boat, a house, take a vacation,
buy new clothes. So, everybody who's
buying Bitcoin wants to sell it at some
point. They can only sell it if there's
somebody else
who is equally confident that from that
point the price will go up. So, now they
can buy a house and a car and a boat or
whatever they want.
But if people stop believing in the
fairy tale
then you run out of buyers. Now, without
buyers, how do people sell to get the
things they want? That they can't. So,
the price will collapse. Right? So, I
think it's not going to be that
everybody starts selling.
It's going to be that new people stop
buying. And then as the price really
starts to fall
maybe, you know, I don't think the true
believers, the hardcore Bitcoiners,
they're not going to be fazed by Bitcoin
going from 60,000
to 40,000. Right?
They've seen that before. Been there,
done that. Like, Bitcoin always comes
back. That may not be the case for the
people who just bought into the Bitcoin
ETFs. I think they're going to be the
first ones out. Right? They were the
last ones in, they're going to be the
first ones out. They're not long-term
holders, even if they bought the one
with the symbol hodl. They're They're
traders, I think. I mean, if they were
real Bitcoin people, they would have
bought years ago. They wouldn't have
waited for an ETF. They got kind of
suckered into it by the hype and the
promotion. And they thought they could
make some money. And that's going to be
a big problem for Bitcoin, too, when the
ETFs start to sell off because
um you know, if you go back and look at
prior Bitcoin crashes
you always have a big influx of Tether.
There's a lot of Tether, whether they're
counterfeit Tether, we'll see. But
Tether comes in and buys up Bitcoin and
that puts in a bottom. But when the ETFs
start to liquidate
and now they have to take the Bitcoin
that they own into the spot market and
sell it
the buyer has to pay with real dollars.
They can't pay with Tether.
And there may not be enough of those
that want to buy Bitcoin. And so, I
think that the next Bitcoin crash is
going to be pretty big cuz I think it's
going to start in the ETFs and it's
going exacerbate the decline when you
have all these market orders, sell me
Bitcoin at the market, whatever the
price is. No limits, just get me out by
the end of the day. I have to get out.
No I can't wait till tomorrow. I have to
be out today. And then all of course the
buyers are like, well, I'm not buying.
Everybody steps away and it's a
trapdoor. But so, let's say now the ETF
selling drives Bitcoin down to 10,000,
right? Not 20,000, not 10,000. And now
you look at these charts like, wait a
minute, Bitcoin just went below the
previous low. It's now lower than it was
5 years ago, 6 years ago. The trend is
broken. I think at some point you're
going to shake the confidence
of
the hodlers
who are being to be like, you know
I I don't know if it's going to come
back again. This maybe this is
different. And and they're going to want
to sell. And as it goes down, then you
get the fear. Then you get, oh my god, I
better get out before it's worthless,
right? Even the diehards are like, I'm
not going down with this ship. I mean,
there are some people that say they're
going to go down with the ship, but
let's see what happens when it's
actually sinking and they're, you know,
up to their neck. Are they really going
to, you know
finish and drown? Or are they going to
try to salvage
something? Because, you know, there are
people, too, that still bought in at
much lower prices. So, they can They can
still sell Bitcoin at 5,000 and make a
profit. There's not that many people
left anymore that that have a cost basis
that low.
But
you know, they There are going to be
some of them. Are they going to let that
turn into a loss or are they going to
sell? So, I I think the whole dynamic
can change. Right now, everybody is very
confident, very sure themselves they're
all going to get rich. Everything else
is a bunch of FUD. Tune it out. Guys
like Peter Schiff or Warren Buffett or
any person who talks sense is just a
boomer who doesn't get it. You know,
we're trapped in the Stone Age. I mean,
I just laugh. I on online all these
people, Peter Schiff is smart about so
many things, but he's an idiot about
Bitcoin.
It's like, you know, if I'm smart about
everything else, why would I be so dumb?
It's like, well, if Peter only studied
Bitcoin. So, you you think I haven't
studied it? You don't think I haven't
looked at it? They They just can't
accept the fact that I'm a smart guy who
has looked at it, who has studied it and
just doesn't you know, believe it. I
didn't drink the Kool-Aid, right? I I
had a good look at it. I smelled it,
right? I just didn't want to didn't want
to swallow it. Now, to answer your
question
if people are going to look at it as an
alternative to gold yes, it could be a
competitive threat to gold. There's some
money that went into Bitcoin, not all of
it, not even the majority of it, but
some of it that might have gone into
gold had it not gone into Bitcoin. Now,
gold is a much bigger market than
Bitcoin. So, how much it might have
affected the price it's hard to say.
Maybe gold would be 100 or 200 dollars
higher, I don't know, if there was no
Bitcoin. It's not like gold would be
10,000 or 20,000, but it could be a
little bit higher. I don't think at the
end of the day that really matters. I
mean, I think if you look at gold and
Bitcoin, they more often trade in the
opposite direction than in the same
direction. I mean, Bitcoin is more of an
anti-gold than a gold. Bitcoin is risk
on, gold is more risk off. Bitcoin is
speculative, gold is a safe haven store
value.
Um so, I really don't see them as
competitors. I see I think Bitcoin
competes with
AMC or, you know, games you know,
GameStop. You know, or a lottery or
gambling on sports, right? That That's I
think that's where the Bitcoin money
might otherwise go if it wasn't in
Bitcoin. And I feel badly, though, for
the people who are buying it because
they think it's a store value. They
think it's an inflation hedge. They
think it's digital gold. They're wrong,
right? That's part of the marketing
hype, right? Of Bitcoin. That's part of
the the story, the sizzle that they're
all they're all selling. I think I'm
looking at it objectively because there
are other people that are in the gold
industry who are also proponents of
Bitcoin. I mean, I see them.
Um so, it's not like you can't be in the
gold business and you can't say, hey,
buy gold and Bitcoin. Look, I tell
people to buy gold and stocks. And And
in fact
I didn't start SchiffGold until 2010.
I started my broker-dealer in 2 1997,
1996. So, for about 13 or 14 years I
owned my own broker-dealer. Yet I kept
telling people to buy gold, not from me.
I said, just go find buy it. I was
trying to get people to invest with me
in the stock market. I was stockbroker.
And I said, but you should also have
some gold. And I knew that if people
went out and bought gold, they couldn't
send me that money to invest in the
stock market, but I still recommended
it. Right? So, it's not like I only
recommend gold because I sell gold. I
recommend gold because I think people
should own it. And the reason I ended up
starting a SchiffGold was because a lot
of people who were buying gold after I
told them to were getting ripped off by
companies who were selling them
overpriced numismatics instead of
bullion. And so, I set up my own company
so I knew that people wouldn't get
ripped off. And so, I was very
consistent. I recommended it before uh I
I had SchiffGold and I continued to
recommend it after I started SchiffGold.
So, I could recommend I could tell
people, hey, put 5% of your money in
Bitcoin if I believed in it. And I would
have done it myself if I believed in it.
You know, people tell me, oh, we think
you secretly have Bitcoin. Why would I
keep it a secret? Nobody who owns
Bitcoin keeps it a secret. I mean, in
fact, the minute you buy Bitcoin, you
have to tell everybody else to buy it.
That's part of the thing. It's like
they're like the Hare Krishnas of the
investment world. You have to like
proselytize. You have to convince new
people to buy it. Right? Ever have Ever
go to dinner, have a Thanksgiving, some
family members in Bitcoin telling
everybody they got to buy Bitcoin. I've
noticed that with Tesla, when you buy a
Tesla, you tell everyone else that you
just bought a Tesla and you convince
other people to also buy a Tesla.
Well, that's a little bit different.
Maybe, you know, you you kind of really
like your Tesla and you enjoy driving it
and you're bragging about it, but you
know you're not going to sell your Tesla
at a profit one day. Bitcoin needs new
converts. Right? The way Bitcoin goes up
is people have to buy it. So, you have
to convince people. Now, people will
say, well, that's the same thing with
every other asset. No, it's not. If I
buy a dividend-paying stock, nobody else
has to buy those shares. I'll collect
the dividends and make plenty of money.
If I buy rental property, nobody has to
buy my property. I'm collecting rent. If
I buy a bond, I'm collecting interest. I
don't need new buyers to have a return
on an investment. That's just not true.
Now, yes, if if you buy
uh a stock that doesn't pay any
dividends you need the price to go up.
But why would the price go up? Well, in
theory because the earnings came up and
the company eventually paid a dividend
because it had earnings.
But Bitcoin is never going to have any
earnings. Never going to pay a dividend.
Now, you can say, well neither does
gold. Well, gold doesn't have to. It's a
commodity. You use it for things.
Just like every other commodity. Wheat,
soybeans, corn, cotton.
These things are all used. You can buy
them and hold them and trade them.
But they have an underlying use. Bitcoin
does not. They People say, well, but I
can give my Bitcoin to somebody else."
Yes, I know that. You can give anything
to somebody else. That doesn't mean it
has a use because what does the person
you gave it to do with it? Nothing but
give it to somebody else. It's a It's a
hot potato, right? And yes, you can say,
"Well, but I can do it quickly." Well,
there's Yes, you can transfer other
things quickly, too. But one of the
reasons it's so quick and inexpensive to
transfer Bitcoin is because you're
transferring nothing. It's a lot more
expensive to transfer something than to
transfer nothing. But there are 20,000
other nothings, and most of them you
could transfer quicker and cheaper than
you can Bitcoin.
It's kind of a like a meme-y question,
but I'm curious because you set you you
sell gold, right?
Well, Schiff Gold sells gold, right. And
we don't sell our own gold. We we buy it
we buy it wholesale and sell it retail.
Got it. Okay, that makes sense cuz I was
curious like you're like trading dollars
for gold in the other direction that
would be
Yeah, no, no, we don't keep the dollars.
I mean, I got to pay my employees, I got
to pay my rent, and whatever's left
over, my profit, I I invest it. I don't
keep it in dollars. Mhm. I I use some of
it to buy gold. I've been using a lot of
it to buy gold stocks, but I also buy
other things, right? I mean, I bought
this house, right? I mean, I buy I don't
I don't just hold on to the dollars.
People say, "Oh, if Why do you want
dollars? You know, what if you if you
love so gold so much, why are you
selling gold and taking dollars?" Right?
I'm not I mean, it's a business, but I
think people should own gold, but you
know, it's I it doesn't mean that I I I
want the dollars. That's just that
that's how we sell gold. So, a question
we've been asking a bunch of different
guests on our podcast, and we've gotten
a
crazy variety of answers to this is if
you're poor in the United States between
the ages of 25 and 60, you have no
disabilities and no dependents, is it
your fault? Well, I mean,
I think that
if we had
a
freer market than the one we have today
with fewer regulations and therefore
more opportunity, fewer people would be
poor, right? So, to a degree, the
government is
the reason that more people find
themselves
in a state of poverty than would
otherwise be the case
if the government stayed out and we had
more freedom, which means we'd have more
opportunity. Those who make it, you
know, either they're just naturally uh
born, you know, with more intelligence,
or they just have more drive, more
ambition, they're willing to work
harder. Uh so, to the extent that most
people succeed, it's because of
their own hard work. Now, of course,
some people get lucky. Some people are
born uh to wealthy parents, and they
inherit a lot of money,
and they do nothing to earn it, right?
So, that's that's life, right? Life
isn't fair. Some people, you know, get
dealt a good hand, and other people get
dealt a lousy hand. But there are people
who are dealt a lousy hand that that
that win, that make the most out of that
hand, and that, you know, that end up
being very wealthy. And there are people
that that that get a great hand, and
they end up losing, right? They they
they squander their money. Am I trying
to say should I blame people? I mean,
I'd have to look at their individual
choices and their circumstances. I mean,
did they just really get a bunch of bad
breaks? What What did they do? How did
they find themselves in their
circumstances? Look at, you know, the
choices that they made, how they ran
their lives. Some people could have just
gotten unlucky, and they just happened
to be the victim of a string of
unfortunate uh events. People are by and
large responsible even if the government
makes it harder to succeed. They don't
make it impossible. And what do you
think we should do about the people that
do just want to be lazy, they want to
like eat, sleep, play video games, work
the bare minimum, and exist in their
life?
They need to figure out how to exist
that way without compelling somebody
else at gunpoint to take care of their
needs. So, look, if you don't want to
work, if you just want to lie around and
play video games, then you figure out
how to afford to do that.
Well, you figure out where you're going
to get your food. And you Cuz nobody
Nobody owes you
uh any of those things, right? You're
You're on this world, uh and the rest of
the people that are here
don't have a duty to feed you, clothe
you, house you. You have to figure out
how to do all those things. Now, if it's
more important to you to just lie at
home and and play video games, well,
then that's your priority. So, maybe you
stay and live with your parents and
convince them to pay your bills, right?
But don't, you know, expect other
people, right? Who to pay your bills for
you. And of course, if you created in a
world where everybody can just choose to
do nothing and play video games, well,
what if everybody makes that choice?
Well, how we How is the world going to
survive? How Where's the food going to
come from if nobody wants to be a farmer
cuz the farmers just want to play video
games? In fact, where are the video
games going to come from if nobody is
going to work to produce them? If
everybody just wants to sit back and
play them cuz they assume somebody else
is going to do it for them. So, look, we
just have to get rid of all of the
government interference and and and
subsidies, and then people will make
whatever choices they're able to make
in their circumstances. So, what do you
think the role of the government should
be? What should a reasonable budget look
like and taxes? Where's the revenue?
Well, in America, because, you know,
America was founded on certain
principles, but we have governments to
secure our liberties, life, liberty,
property, the pursuit of happiness.
Government is there to protect me
uh and to prevent people from taking the
things that I own and the things that I
earned. Government is not there to steal
from me.
It's not there to take things away from
me,
but to secure my freedom and to secure
my liberty. Government is not there to
give me things.
So, I have freedom,
right? Of of speech, but the government
doesn't have an obligation to provide me
with a microphone and a platform or an
audience, right? I can pursue happiness.
If I want to go out and
get an education, that's my right, but
the government doesn't have to provide
me with one. The government doesn't have
to give me a school, give me a teacher,
right? I don't have a right to those
things. I have a right to seek out an
education on my own. The government
can't stop me from doing that, but they
don't owe that to me, right? I can't
force my neighbor to pay for that. I
have a right to to eat. I don't have a
right to food. If I'm hungry, I can't
steal your food. I can't elect a
politician to steal it from you. I have
a right to go out and,
you know, grow my own food or try to
trade with farmers who grow food, uh do
some work or trade something else, or I
can even go to somebody and ask for a
free food because I'm hungry, and maybe
they'll give it to me. But I can't take
it from somebody else. I can't take what
I don't what doesn't belong to me, and I
can't vote for a politician to steal in
my behalf, right? Theft is wrong, uh no
matter who does the stealing, no matter
how many people vote for the thief,
theft is still wrong, right? You don't
change the nature
of that relationship. Now, I we have
decided, I think, in American society
that collectively there are certain
things that we're going to pay for
through taxes.
Police, you know, you know, on the
federal level would be a military to
protect all of us from foreign invasion,
right? We want to have a government, we
want to have, you know, embassies, and
we want to have certain things that the
federal government legitimately does,
well, then, you know, collectively we're
going to pay for them. That is not theft
because the money
is being used
to benefit everybody equally, including
the people who are taxed, whereas
the way it works now is the government
takes money from one person and just
gives it to somebody else,
right? It's not It's not used for the
benefit of the of the of the nation, for
the collective well-being, for the
general welfare, right? Like it says in
the Constitution, but it's for the
specific welfare of the individual who
gets the money,
and it's taken from an individual who
derives no benefit from that. So, what
do you think the tax rate should be?
Well, personally, I don't think there
should be an income tax at all, so the
tax rate should be zero. I don't think
there should be a payroll tax, so that
tax should be zero. I think the
government should fund itself on
indirect taxes, which is how the
government funded itself until 1913. It
was predominantly tariffs.
Uh and so, they're fine, or you can have
taxes on certain goods, taxes on
alcohol, you know, tobacco. We have
those taxes now, taxes on um gasoline.
There are federal taxes that we have.
That used to be it. That used to cover
everything. The only reason we have an
income tax
and is because we have all these welfare
programs, Social Security, Medicare,
Medicaid, all these other government
involvement, getting government in
education, and all this stuff that it
shouldn't even be involved in. Do you
think government should enforce parking
laws? Not the federal government.
The local government?
look,
the local government could could could
certainly do these things if it's a
public road, public uh parking lot, then
the government should, you know, be in
charge. But if it's a private, if I own
a piece of land,
they shouldn't require me to set aside
handicap spaces. I mean, I should be
able to decide how I'm going to organize
my private parking lot. Even if it's
publicly accessible, it's private
property. So, if I own a restaurant, if
I own a store, I can configure my
parking lot however I want. And if it
means there's no place for the
handicapped to park, well, then I lost
out on that business, right? I mean, so
it should be up to me to decide and my
customers to decide, you know, how I'm
going to organize my my private
restaurant. But if it's a public
facility, if it's a government building,
then then they Yeah, then the government
can decide how they want to do it.
What do you think about either a flat
tax or implementing a consumption tax
where you're only taxed if you spend
money? Well, a flat tax as a you know, a
flat income tax is better than the
progressive tax that we have today. I
would just assume have the rate be zero,
right? That's the flat rate I want, but
if it was a choice between a graduated
progressive tax where some people pay
nothing and other people pay a lot, I
would rather have a flat tax without all
the deductions and all the distortions
that come along with that.
I think that'd be a much fairer system,
a much easier system. Uh but I think the
best system is to not tax income at all.
Yes, a consumption tax. Consumption tax
is a tariff. National sales tax,
value-added tax. Those are the type of
taxes that would fall on consumption.
They're much better from an economic
perspective. They don't discourage
savings, investment, production.
They tax people when they consume their
wealth, not when they create their
wealth. So, it's much better for
economic growth. It's much better for
individual liberty and freedom. You
don't have to keep records. You don't
have to file returns. You don't have to,
you know, swear under perjury. You don't
have to face audits.
You know, when you pay your sales taxes,
it's built into the price. Nobody really
cares. I mean, yes, I pay a sales tax
when I go to the store, but I don't keep
records. I don't have to hire an
accountant to figure out how much sales
tax I owe, right? So, it's a much better
way, it's a much more efficient way to
fund the government. That's what I would
like. And that's why the Founding
Fathers made it so hard for the federal
government to collect a direct tax like
an income tax.
They envisioned that the government
federal government would only resort to
those taxes in a war, like when it
really needed a lot of money. But during
peacetime, the framers thought that the
federal government's role would be very
minimal, and it wouldn't need need much
revenue. And so, it could it could exist
on on excise taxes. And that's what I
want to go back to. I don't want to have
this big, enormous, one-size-fits-all
massive federal government. We're 50
states. Let the states decide. Let all
this stuff happen on the state level. If
a state wants to have a big government,
then it can tax its residents
accordingly. And if the the if the
people of the state are happy paying
those high taxes, they can stay there
and pay them. If they don't, they can go
to a state that has smaller government
and lower taxes.
And speaking of that, uh California
implemented a $20 minimum wage for fast
food workers. Do you feel like that's
too low?
Too low? It's hard to live in California
now. I mean,
Wow. Housing is expensive. No, I mean,
the best minimum wage is is zero. We
shouldn't have a minimum wage. And you
know, we didn't always have minimum
wages. You know, the the origins of the
minimum wage, they they they they they
basically were discriminatory.
You had people who wanted to force
employers not to hire the Chinese, not
to hire African-Americans because they
were working for lower wages than
white people were were were working for.
And one of the reasons was there was
some,
uh you know, racism to a degree
at that time. But one way that you
overcame racism was to work for less.
So, if I was Chinese and I went to work
for somebody who didn't really like the
Chinese,
one way I can convince you to hire me
was, "Well, I'll work for less money."
Right? Most people would prefer steak
over hamburger.
So, given the choice, you're going to
buy a steak.
So, why does anybody buy hamburger when
they like steak better? Hamburger's
cheaper.
If hamburger and steak were the exact
same price, nobody would buy hamburger.
So, how does hamburger compete with
steak? It's cheaper. So, the Chinese or
African-Americans back then, in order to
overcome the fact that there was some
prejudice, they were like, "Look, we'll
work for less." And now the the the the
guy that's prejudiced is like, "Well,
yeah, I I I really don't like the
Chinese, but I I mean, I'm not going to
pass up this money that I could get by
hiring them." And so, you know, and
obviously over time, as you hire more
Chinese or African-Americans, your
prejudices might go away as you spend
more time with them and you see that
they're good workers.
Uh you know,
you know, and then as they become more
valuable to you because they've worked
with you, they know your business, you
start giving them raises. Otherwise,
they'll quit and they'll work someplace
else. But so, what happened was white
people got governments to impose minimum
wages to stop the hiring of the Chinese,
to stop the hiring of African-Americans
because now it costs nothing to
discriminate.
Right? If I have to say pay the same
price for hamburger as steak, I'm eating
steak. If I have to pay the exact same
wages to hire a Chinese guy than a white
guy, I'll take the white guy. Now, some
people might think, "Well, that's not
fair." Well, okay, well, it's better
than the guy, you know, the Chinese guy
being unemployed. Right? Let him get a
job. But that's where the origin of the
minimum wage. It was to stop people from
hiring
And and that's really what it does
today. I mean, it's not really about
racism. At this point, most people don't
care if the worker is Chinese or white.
I mean I mean, those prejudices, by and
large, don't exist anymore. I'm not
saying that there's zero prejudice
today, but there's a lot less than there
was 100 200 years ago. The minimum wage
law just makes it very hard for
uh low-skilled or marginally skilled
people to find employment. It's it's not
really
something that burdens
the employer so much as the employee.
So, when you have a minimum wage, let's
say California says the minimum wage is
$20 an hour.
What California is saying is that if you
are a person and you want to get a job,
you need to convince somebody to pay you
$20 an hour or you can't work. Now, how
am I going to convince somebody to pay
me $20 an hour? Well, I have to convince
them that by hiring me and paying me $20
an hour, I will deliver enough
productivity to your company so that you
will make more than $20 an hour. You'll
pay me $20 an hour, and by employing my
labor,
you might have $25 an hour in revenue,
and you're going to make $5 off me.
But what if I don't have a lot of skill?
Right? What if I don't, you know, I
haven't really had any jobs in the past.
I'm not that well-educated.
Maybe I can only, through my own hard
work, my muscle, right? What I'm willing
to do. Maybe I can make you $15 an hour.
Maybe I could do that. Well, you're not
going to hire me
and pay me 20 and lose $5 an hour. So,
I'm not going to get a job. Even though
I would like to have a job at $10 an
hour, $12 an hour, it's better than no
job at all. But the government made it
illegal. That cuz that's the real
minimum wage. It's zero. That's how much
money you earn if you can't get a job at
the legal minimum wage. You get zero.
Don't you think that's going to speed up
AI or robots taking over some of these
jobs?
I'm an employer
and the government is artificially
driving up the cost of wages, I am going
to look for ways to substitute machines
for humans.
So, to the extent that I can automate,
right? And that drive to automation
is going to be accelerated the higher
the wage cost is. Because when I have to
do a cost-benefit analysis
of
how much,
right? Is it worth the investment? Cuz
I'm going to have to spend money up
front to automate
a business. So, what is my payback? It's
the labor cost that I save.
So, the higher the wages that I avoid by
automating,
the the quicker the payback on my
investment. So, let's say wages are $10
an hour.
It may not make sense for me to automate
because the $10 an hour I save may not
justify the upfront cost. But if you
jack up my wage cost to $20 an hour, and
now I run the numbers, it might be that
automation is the best thing that I can
do. And so then I make the investment
and fire all my workers. So, yes, I
mean,
human beings are competing with
machines, right? You know, uh and the AI
is making the machines a lot smarter,
and so they're a lot more competitive.
And a lot of jobs are going to get
eliminated that might not have been
eliminated. And you know, the public, by
and large, prefers human interaction.
Now, that might change as the AI gets
better. But I always hated One of the
first things I usually do when I that
they answer the phone is, "Agent, let me
speak with a representative." I mean, I
There's a lot of things that I can't do
with our automated programs. A lot of
people don't like pumping their own gas.
They'd rather have somebody else pump
it. But, you know, they end up saving
money, and uh so they pump it
themselves. And and so, but all else
being equal, if there was no minimum
wage, there'd be a lot more full-service
gas stations. Uh but because they
require such a high cost for the workers
relative to the value they add, people
are like, "Screw it. I'll pump my own
gas."
Um you know, and so there's going to be
a lot of people would prefer human
waiters and waitresses, but they're not
going to get them because they're the
government made them too expensive. So,
you're stuck with
self-serve and automation.
I almost like the automation. We went to
a sushi restaurant a few days ago in New
York, and the entire thing was
automated. You get there, and you press
a few little buttons on a screen, and
the sushi comes out on a conveyor belt.
And then you press,
you know, close tab. There's something
nice about just There's something, you
know, having a nice, entertaining,
attractive waitress, you know,
at you at your table. I mean, you know,
as I mean, as opposed to just just
pushing buttons and serving yourself,
right? I mean,
but if there's a big enough cost
savings, I think most people would do
it. You know, you don't have to tip the
the the the AI like you tip the
waitress. And now it's, you know, you're
paying 20% of your bill
extra for that human waiter or waitress.
Yeah. So, like a lot of the stuff, but I
think, you know, as they end up with
AI and automation, and as the cost to
produce a robot, a, you know, a
humanoid- looking robot, like an
Android, um
that has a personality and laughs and
smiles and is intelligent and interacts
with you and has a conversation with
you, then probably people will be fine
with that as opposed to an actual human
being.
Um but but all you know, this stuff is
all going to happen over time, and this
is all progress that is attributable to
what's left of capitalism. You know, I
mean people think oh this is a bad thing
because the the robots are going to take
our jobs. They're freeing us up from
having to do these jobs. Just like every
labor-saving device. I mean
the shovel, you know, took a lot of jobs
of diggers. But we're all glad that we
don't have to dig with our hands. You
know how much it would cost to build
this house if people had to dig with
hands.
If they if they didn't have any tools,
how long how many how long would take
how many slaves what I need to build
this house you know because that's how
they built the houses in the you know in
the the Egyptians and the Romans. They
had all these slaves. They don't have
machines. Uh but you know machines
um you know made it so that one machine
does the work of 100 people, right? And
it's we're not upset that 100 jobs have
been destroyed. 100 people have been
liberated to do something else and now I
more people can afford to have homes
because we don't need to monopolize so
many workers to to build them. I think
it's one of the arguments that the
market could keep going up exponentially
for the next few decades is because AI
and robotics are going to increase
productivity to such high amounts that
right now we can't even fathom what
we're able to accomplish because we
haven't thought of it yet. Yeah, I mean
look that's you know my son is in that
camp and he's like you know very
immersed in AI. He used to be a crypto
guy now he really doesn't care about
crypto cuz it's just AI. But yeah I mean
that is something that I'm willing to
concede is an outlier
get out of jail free card potentially
for some of these
fiscal problems that I I think are about
to blow up if we can get
enough growth in the economy rapidly to
bring down the debt to GDP levels to a
manageable level by growing our way out
of the problem.
I just don't think
that
it's going to roll out that quickly. I
mean things always take time. I mean
look how how long it's taking. You know,
we still don't have autonomous cars even
at a Tesla. Right? From when they had
the first Tesla. You know, my father
told me that he went to the 1939 World's
Fair and one of the things they had was
a helicopter in every driveway. So
people were going to be using
helicopters instead of cars. You know,
but you know, we're still we're still on
the ground. We don't have flying cars.
Back to the Future had flying cars in
2015, right? That's almost 10 years in
the past now. That's how crazy that is.
I remember going to the movies in 1985
watching Back to the Future in the
theater thinking how far into the future
2015 was and that yeah we could have
flying cars by then.
Right? But we don't have flying cars,
right? We have so
um but we have drones. Things take
longer than you think uh
um to to really
uh make the type of change that would be
needed. But I can see in in certain
industries
uh AI having a pretty rapid
effect.
The question is though
in a in a free market economy when
workers are displaced by automation or
computers, they can you know do
something they can do other things. They
can transition other things. But today
they may not have that ability with a
lot of the laws and regulations and the
government may create incentives for
people who are displaced by innovation
instead of finding something else
productive to do, they just may live off
the government. And so the government
may just end up printing all more money
and having bigger deficits because oh
it's not fair you lost your job to AI.
It's not your fault. So now we just give
you universal basic income or something
like that. And so we don't get all the
benefits of the new productivity because
the worker who's freed up doesn't find
something else to do.
He just lives off the government which
means he lives off the taxpayer which is
robbing us of the benefits
of uh of the productivity. Now I suppose
at some point in the future
to the extent that everything that we
need can be created
you know at almost no cost by AI, well
then none of it's going to matter,
right? If everybody can have everything
they want and nobody has to work well
then we don't we don't have these
problems anymore, right? Because
everything is about and economics, you
know, is about how do you satisfy
unlimited human desires
with limited resources.
Well if AI means we have unlimited
resources, well then there's nothing to
worry about, right? Everybody can have
whatever they want and nobody has to
work and nobody has to depend on
government because it's all there. And
maybe that's the way society will be
eventually, you know, if we can create
it for ourselves. But I I don't know how
far off that is. What's your advice for
young people today?
If they want to get ahead, they're
starting off from zero and they want to
become wealthy and they want to be
successful. Well you know you got to
work hard.
You got to be ambitious. You know
don't accept failure, persevere. If you
make a mistake, you know, just correct
it, learn from it. You know, don't be
afraid to fail
because you know, failure is part of
success. Some of the most successful
people have failed many times before
they succeeded. You got to take a risk.
You got to believe in yourself.
Uh you know, I mean it's hard. I mean
not everybody can be successful.
Not everybody uh can start and run their
own business. A lot of people are
satisfied uh with you know the ordinary
just letting somebody else make all the
hard choices, take all the risks and
just play it safe and take a job. And
you know, there's something to be said
for that too. It depends on you know who
you are and and what your goals are and
what your ambitions are.
But even though the government makes it
a lot harder to succeed, it's not
impossible.
So you could do it, right? You can
overcome any barrier. It's a big world
and if there's too many rules and
regulations in America, go someplace
else.
You know, especially if you're young,
you don't have any responsibilities.
Uh you don't have a family, you don't
have kids. You can pick up and go
wherever the wind blows.
you go?
If you could pick anywhere I assume
you'd go back to 20 years old and you
could go anywhere in the world for an
opportunity, where do you feel like you
get the best
Puerto Rico is not bad right now given
the tax breaks that you can get in
Puerto Rico. You still got to deal with
the local government. But you know, I
mean
if I wasn't an American and have even a
bigger choice unless I'm willing to uh
you know, relinquish my my citizenship
and and get out from under it. But you
know, you can go to you know, Southeast
Asia, a lot of these emerging market
economies. You can go into you know,
like a Dubai. Uh who knows maybe we'll
see what they're doing down there in
Argentina. I mean it would have been a
place I never would have thought about.
But you got Milei in there.
Some big reforms. I mean I wish him all
the success.
But uh who knows? I mean Argentina was
the one of the wealthiest countries in
the world over 100 years ago.
Maybe it will be again. I mean it was
Argentina was wealthy because it was
free. It went broke because of big
government.
For the same reasons that that we're
broke. Where did you get your
self-sufficiency from? Because it really
feels like you take complete ownership
and control over your life in a way that
many people don't believe they have.
Well I think there's a lot of people
that are like that. I mean America was
about the rugged individual. I mean
that's the whole concept of an American,
right? You know you know, we take care
of ourselves. That doesn't mean that we
ignore the plight of others. But we take
care of ourselves. We we're not
dependent. We don't look for a handout.
And you know, when when they first
introduced welfare in this country in
the 1930s during the depression, they
called it relief, right? Because it was
supposed to be temporary.
But a lot of people were too proud to
take it. And a lot of people who took it
paid it back even though they didn't
have to. They just felt wrong. It just
didn't feel right. Because they knew
that I didn't earn this money. But
Americans don't have that. Most of them
today don't have that sense of pride.
Uh they couldn't give a damn, right? If
the money was stolen and give it to
them. They just you know, in fact that's
why there's so much theft today too. And
people don't care. They have no respect
for private property. They just think
they're entitled to stuff. Right? It's
the whole the reparations mentality. I
mean you society owes me something.
Other other people owe me because I'm
here. Because I want stuff, I deserve
it. Because I'm here. Bunch of nonsense.
But that that wasn't what being American
was about. It was about being free.
Being about left alone. I mean that's
why when my grandparents came here,
there was they didn't come here for
welfare cuz it didn't exist. They didn't
come for food stamps. They didn't come
for minimum wage. We didn't have that.
There were no government caseworkers
that that greeted my grandparents. There
was no government housing. There was no
subsidized health care. People came here
to be free.
Free from government. That's what
freedom is. Freedom is freedom from
government. It means you're left alone.
You're free to make your own choices
and to benefit, right? From the good
choices and if you make bad choices,
you're going to have to be held
accountable. But people came here
knowing the deal. Knowing that if you
succeed
you you get the benefits and if you
fail, you suffer the consequences.
People came here anyway. By the
millions, by the boatload. They came
from countries all around the world that
had much bigger governments.
They they rejected big government in
favor of small government and individual
freedom. But the nation changed, you
know, in those 100 years, right? The
whole character of the nation has
changed and it's for the worse. And I
would I would really like to see
uh a backlash and a return to to our
roots. What do you think about Elon
Musk's compensation package being
revoked? Well again you know, the
shareholders voted for it.
And
as far as I know most of them still
think he's entitled to it and want him
to have it. So again, it's a government
interposing uh
uh you know, itself where it doesn't
belong. But look, the the worst thing is
the government does is look at all these
uh mergers that they break up. I mean
every day at government hearing another
this merger was blocked, that merger was
blocked. I mean if companies
uh believe that by coming together they
can be more viable businesses. They can
have synergies and they can lower their
costs and then provide a more
competitive product.
Why doesn't the Why is the government
getting involved? I mean look the most
recent one it's luxury handbags or what
is it? You know,
two companies that make women's handbags
and who cares? But the government says
oh no no you know this is not going to
be a monopoly nobody companies make
handbags. But it's just so ridiculous
that the government you know they they
they steal so much money from us and
then they worry about pennies. Oh we're
going to protect you like from your from
a bank that's charging you a fee to
bounce a check. You know that but
meanwhile they're taking you know 30% of
your paycheck right out from under you
and then they're worried about this you
know the small amount of money that they
claim you know you're getting ripped off
in the private sector. The government
needs to stay out of all this stuff.
One question before we end it.
We're shooting with Kevin O'Leary in a
few days. Mr. Wonderful. Do you have any
questions or anything we can show him of
you to get his reaction to it? Any
comments, questions, concerns?
Well I don't know I mean I'm I'm a Shark
a Shark Tank fan
and you know I've watched quite a few of
those episodes. I know he's the guy that
always wants the royalty which is
generally a pretty good deal because you
don't have to deal with the expenses you
just get money right off the top. You
know we we own a lot of gold royalty
companies for our clients and in my in
my gold fund. And if he has
some money that he'd like to have
somebody else manage
I'm ready to do it. If you want to set
up an account at Euro Pacific Asset
Management and and I can manage a
portfolio for him in emerging markets
and develop markets that will do well
with a weak US dollar and if he does
want to buy some gold instead of Bitcoin
shift gold and by the way you can take
your Bitcoin and use it to buy gold at
Shift Gold because we were one of the
first companies to work with BitPay. And
so you can go to the Shift Gold website
and BitPay will allow you to exchange
your fool's gold for the real thing and
then have it shipped right to your
house. Thank you so much Peter. We'll
link down to all of that stuff down
below in the description if you guys
want to check it out. It really means a
lot to us you invite us into your home.
We're in Puerto Rico so that's pretty
cool.
And until next time. Thanks.
Appreciate it.