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This Is How New York Will Collapse

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The discussion centers on Zohran Mamdani's anticipated election as New York City mayor and a critical assessment of his proposed policies, which are characterized by the speakers as fundamentally flawed due to their ideological underpinnings rather than economic viability. The transcript argues that while supporters view free buses and other social programs as benevolent measures for improving lives, these initiatives ignore the underlying mechanics of debt and money printing that already destabilize the economy. Critics assert that Mamdani's approach is driven by a Marxist ideology where he will persist in pushing his agenda regardless of economic consequences such as falling tax revenue or capital flight. The core contention is that attempting to solve housing affordability through regulation, rent freezes, or restricting foreign investment fails because it disrupts the entrepreneurial nature of real estate and discourages necessary maintenance and new construction. A significant portion of the dialogue addresses the historical failure of rent control measures in New York City, citing examples from the 1960s and 70s where such policies led to burned-out buildings rather than affordable housing. The speakers use a vivid analogy involving an arsonist: while society rightly condemns someone who burns down a building for insurance money, they argue that government-imposed rent freezes place property owners in similar desperate positions by making it impossible to cover upkeep costs like plumbing repairs or mortgage payments. When the potential return on investment drops below maintenance expenses, landlords face a choice between operating at a loss or abandoning properties entirely. The transcript highlights that this dynamic has already occurred historically, with arson becoming cheaper than repair for some building owners in areas like the Bronx, illustrating how well-intentioned policies can inadvertently incentivize destruction when market viability is removed. The conversation further explores the economic reality of housing supply and demand, rejecting narratives that suggest new construction cannot increase affordability. The speakers argue that artificially limiting who can live where or capping rents does not lower prices; instead, it drives them up by reducing competition among developers to build more units. They contend that while certain neighborhoods like Manhattan will naturally remain expensive due to finite land supply and high demand from wealthy individuals seeking specific amenities, the solution lies in deregulation rather than restriction. The argument posits that if building lucrative properties were allowed without excessive regulation, a surge in construction would increase inventory and lower rents for everyone, whereas current restrictions effectively tell investors not to invest in the area, exacerbating the housing crisis they claim to want to solve. The disagreement culminates in a clash between ideological goals and practical economic outcomes, with one speaker noting that voters across cultures consistently choose policies that punish the wealthy over those that help the poor, even if the latter are more beneficial overall. The transcript suggests that Mamdani's specific proposals represent a values problem where he attempts to artificially hold unit prices down for specific demographics without addressing the supply constraints of Manhattan. Critics emphasize that following basic economic math reveals that making it impossible for businesses to run profitable operations will cause those businesses to stop running entirely, thereby eliminating affordable housing options rather than creating them. Ultimately, the summary concludes that despite Mamdani's intentions to help New Yorkers born in the city who are being priced out, his methods contradict established economic principles and risk worsening the very issues he seeks to address by driving away investment and stifling development.
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Zohran Mamdani is clearly going to be the next mayor of New York, but he is a villain. A charming villain, but here's what his fans are not thinking about. >> The mayoral debate was yesterday. In the words of Tom who calls Mamdani his villain, is he like your super villain now at this point? Like arch nemesis? >> the super villain is Marxism itself, socialism itself. When you look at the price of gold right now and realize how rapidly it's going up and the price of gold is an indication as to how stable the market thinks your economy is and it's saying, "Bro, you're in real trouble." Everything that is wrong with the economy right now is based on debt, money printing. Mamdani is going to make that worse. The buses are never going to be free, nothing is ever going to be free, everything is going to be paid for by somebody, but this all becomes abstracted. If New York decides that what they want is free buses, then my only question is what aren't you going to do to be able to pay for that? If what we see is a measurable improvement in something that we all care about based on that and you don't see capital flight because they're like, "Okay, yeah, this is a thing that we're that's worth paying for." Great, no problem. I have exactly zero belief that that's how this is going to go. I think he's doing it from an ideological standpoint. I think no matter what happens economically, whether he gets the funding or not, whether tax revenue goes down or not, he's going to keep pushing his agenda because he believes from an ideological standpoint, this is what we ought to do. The city's too expensive. I think that housing has become too expensive essentially ubiquitously across all of America. I think it is one of the most catastrophic problems. We have tried rent freezes before in New York. In fact, we're doing rent freezes already in New York. It hasn't solved the problem. We did rent freezes in the extreme back in the '60s and '70s and it led to the burned-out buildings in the '70s and '80s. People do not understand that even buildings housing is an entrepreneurial endeavor. It is somebody who their product is an apartment complex. You buy that product cuz you want to live inside of it. And what ends up happening is imagine if I told you, "Hey, you can't charge people You can't charge them that amount for a pair of shoes." All of a sudden, the number of people making shoes goes down because it has a knock-on consequence to all the things that they can make those shoes from. And so, upkeep in a building to take it back to real estate, when you put rent freezes, they're like, "Well, you've now just made it impossible for me to make money off my building. Maybe make it break even, which just reduces somebody's incentive cuz they're like, "Wait, I'm going to have to work this hard and I'm going to have nothing to show for it. Why would I do that?" So, people aren't going to run businesses out of charity. What ends up happening is people go, "Wait a second, if at those rents, I can't afford to repair the plumbing, for instance." So, they don't and they tell you wrap a towel around it. And so, you end up in a situation, this is real, you end up where a quarter of all of the buildings that burned in the Bronx were due to arson because it was cheaper to burn the building and collect the insurance money than it was to try to upkeep it. When you start mapping Marxist beliefs on somebody who's really trying to make people the poorest life better, you're going to be eternally confused because they they'll do things that are so obviously well documented that it doesn't work and they do it anyway. So, it's like, "Why are they doing that?" If you map them as resentful people who want to punish the wealthy, all of a sudden all of their moves make sense. In the cross-cultural study, what they found was if people had the opportunity to create a tax policy that made the poorest lives better, but also helped the wealthy, they won't vote for it. Not as much as they'll vote for something that makes the life of the poor worse, but punishes the wealthy. Across cultures, the thing that people will actually vote for is the thing that hurts the rich. They won't vote for the thing that helps the poor. And so, helping the poor would be let the free market stop putting so many regulations on housing and let people go in and build new apartments, build new buildings and charge whatever rent they can get away with charging. Now, putting some restrictions on it like we're not going to let foreign investors buy property. Okay, I get that. With every additional property that a person buys, just charge them bigger and bigger taxes. If somebody wants to buy the third property and you're charging them 50% tax, okay, that's on them. Let them do their thing. Very simple things like that would, over let's say the next 5 years, make housing very, very simple. I don't think that's necessarily a fault of the policy as opposed to a fault of the person. Of course it's a fault policy. >> I feel like we should be more mad at the arsonist and not mad at the person whose rents are lower. You should be mad at the arsonist because it's illegal. You should also recognize that the government put them in that position and I would bet dollars to donuts if I described a scenario where let's say that your mom had bought a house, her whole life was like, "When I get to 65, I'm going to retire. I'm going to move to a really small apartment near my son. I'm counting on the rent that I'm going to be able to get from that house and my upkeep on the house with property taxes and maintenance and all of that, let's say is $1,700." And then the government comes along and says, "You can't charge more than $1,500 a month for that apartment." Now your mom's like, "Hold on a second. Now I'm losing money every month with no hope of ever making Or you could sell the building. Who's going to buy the building when I say, "You can't make money. You will lose money." And so now your mom is like, "No one's going to buy this." So, you just tanked the value of my real estate because anybody even considering buying this building is going to ask, "Can I make money off of maintaining it, off of the property taxes?" And if the answer is no, she's left holding a building that she literally can't sell. That's what happens. And now Remember, this is your mom who for 30 years paid into this building with a plan for how she was going to retire and then somebody says you can't charge what the market is willing to pay and now your mom's entire like plan for the rest of her life is just over. She can't sell the building and now she's looking at it going, "I I have to get the money out of that, otherwise I'm going to be working until the day that I die." And this is where people get put into desperate situations. Now, I'm not saying that your mom is a good person if she burns the building down, but I am saying I get why one day late at night she's like, "Well, that is an option." Housing I I think is a different bucket here. Even the grocery store thing, I can kind of take that point and see that a different bucket. So, you know the way to make housing more affordable is to make more housing. You come up with a narrative that we can't build up, which I totally reject wholeheartedly. I'm just saying when we build up, especially in New York City, you've never seen a high-rise that's more affordable than the unit that it replaced. >> now your beef is I don't want there to be places like Beverly Hills that poor people they just can't afford this neighborhood. >> That's all of Manhattan. Fine. So, so you're saying it's fine that they can't afford it? Yes, of course I'm saying it's fine they can't afford it. >> But I thought the problem was of housing affordability. >> Yes, of course. You don't have a right to live in whatever neighborhood you want to live in. What I'm saying is stop artificially making it impossible for people to live somewhere that it's the government regulation is making it impossible. For instance, stop freezing rents. Because if building a business in Ma- building a building in Manhattan was lucrative, then a whole bunch of people would do it. And if a whole bunch of people were doing it and renovating these buildings and knocking them down and building new things with more tenants, it's going to become more affordable. Now, if in doing that, the wealthiest people in America are like, "Actually, I want to migrate to the city." Yes, it is very possible that given that that is just a fixed finite piece of land, that the wealthiest people are going to keep pouring in. But my instinct is that isn't going to be true. >> number one city in the in the world, arguably. >> Right, but are you trying to regulate who can and can't come there? I don't understand. If you are saying no neighborhood should ever be able to be out of reach of I don't know if you'd say anyone, but are you saying every neighborhood should have low-income housing? I have not said that, no. Perfect. Then now you're just into what you just said a minute ago, which is there will always be a supply and demand problem when Manhattan is a finite size. What I'm saying is the free market is going to lower the prices, it's not going to take them up. Regulation is going to take them up, it's not going to lower them. So, I'm saying, "Yeah, it's possible that an area just becomes so desirable for a whole host of reasons." Take the Hollywood Hills, for instance. The Hollywood Hills are always going to be more expensive because they have a view and there's just always going to be a certain type of person that's going to be willing to pay for that view. So, limited amount of hills, how many additional units we try to build on the Hollywood Hills, we are going to reach a upper threshold. Yeah, exactly. We ran out of hills. But I'm saying if you want to lower it as much as you can, then you would deregulate as much as is safe. I'm not saying you take it to zero. And then if you're going to put limitations on it, put limitations of habitation. So, I get a regulation that says you can only own a house here if you actually live in it at least 51% of the time or whatever. Now you're going to find out when it is single-family ownership, single-family dwellings, what becomes the price. And then if that price is just it's too high, there's so many people that can afford the that place and want to live in that place, well, Manhattan is just more or less off-limits for anybody that's making less than whatever, $350,000 a year. I understand the A to Z of what that laid out, but the end results of that policy would be this is just how much it is, either you got it or you don't. It's It's like you're at the bar, it's at the club. >> going to be the case. You You can't You can't own a house on a minimum wage job. It's just not going to be possible. Now enter Mondani who's saying there are people who are quote-unquote residents of New York who are born in New York who are now getting priced out of this same thing because the demand is too high, because the prices are rising, because New York is the number one city in the world, because people are still flooding in. Yep. They are getting priced. So what he's saying is I'm going to artificially hold this amount of units just so that way I can help those specific people. And if it worked, I'd cheer for it. It doesn't work, it goes the exact opposite direction. It will make a housing crisis. It will make it so that nobody wants to invest in the area. There's rent control units now. There's people who still want to live in New York. New York does not have a vacancy problem. I I guess this is the fundamental this is a values problem. So I think we could talk about housing but >> You have to tell me what what the end result is that you want to get to. Drew personally understands how the economics are working. The reason I'm trying to argue Mondani's point is because I think a lot of times when we talk about him on the show it becomes oh that's a socialist and we kind of minimize like what he's trying to Mondani's policy is full It it is so ignorant to how economies work that the very thing I'm screaming for is for people to just follow the math. If you follow the math you realize if you make it impossible for business to run, then business stops running. Business is how you get affordable homes in anywhere and he's breaking that equation. We've run this scenario before not only here but all over the world. It doesn't work sometimes, it literally never works. But we're doing that now though and I that's the thing that I think When I'm literally hear yourself, you're saying hey New York is totally it's totally broken and we're we're already running his policy. That's my point is e- even now when you have some small amount of it going on, it hasn't solved because what it does is it tells it tells investors don't invest here.