Video summary
Peter Zeihan asserts that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered a new stage defined by what he terms the second revolution in military affairs, which applies digital technologies to warfare on an unprecedented scale. While the first phase of this evolution occurred during the 1980s and 90s with expensive smart bombs and cruise missiles developed primarily by the United States, the current era is characterized by low-cost semiconductors that allow anyone to manufacture drones. Zeihan notes that Ukraine has successfully combined its inherited Soviet aerospace expertise with desperate survival instincts and foreign support to produce thousands of drones daily. Consequently, the battlefield evolves every three months; tactics have progressed from single-person drones to jamming systems, missile-equipped drones, water-based variants, mass drone swarms, and Shahed drones capable of limited target selection. The pace of technological innovation in this conflict has been so rapid that it renders previous assumptions about modern warfare obsolete within a matter of years rather than decades. Zeihan highlights the absurdity of how quickly offensive advantages are neutralized by defensive countermeasures: after Hellfire missiles were deemed superior, they were replaced by nets; when drones developed ways to cut through those nets with specialized attachments, defenses shifted again to materials resistant to cutting and eventually to EMP blasts that destroy them from the sky. He contrasts this three-year period of intense evolution in Ukraine against the rest of the world's military history since 1960, noting that only the introduction of jets during World War II had brought such significant change until now. This rapid iteration means that rules for engagement and tactical doctrine are currently unknown to all parties involved. Zeihan emphasizes that this conflict serves as a unique laboratory where dangerous assumptions about predictability in warfare have been shattered by technological growth curves, drawing global attention similar to the Crimean War or the American Civil War when industrial technologies first hit the field. Although he clarifies that Russia and Ukraine are not intentionally being used as an experiment for others to watch, observers globally treat it as a sandbox to understand how new technologies function in real-time combat. The stakes of this specific conflict remain exceptionally high because it involves nuclear questions regarding Russian security on the northern European plain, threatens to unite Eurasia under a single power, and relies heavily on Chinese industrial support, thereby drawing in American interests and making it the most critical current global event. Ultimately, Zeihan concludes that while energy needs like electricity for drones add another layer of complexity, the fundamental lesson is that established military rules no longer apply as technology outpaces traditional doctrine. The West benefits significantly from this situation because Ukraine is conducting real-time experimentation with lethal technologies at a cost in lives and resources that would be catastrophic if replicated immediately on a broader scale by other nations. As economic models break down due to these conflicts, political instability naturally bubbles up alongside security issues before technological changes are even fully accounted for. The war demonstrates that the future of warfare is currently unwritten, with every day bringing new innovations that could claim millions of lives if not observed and understood through this specific conflict first.
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You mentioned Russia there. The last
time that we spoke that was that was
sort of front page news. What is
happening with the Russia Ukraine
conflict? Is it entering a new stage at
the moment? What's going
>> every 3 months? We're in a new stage. Uh
we're in something called the second
revolution in military affairs which is
applying digital technologies to
warfare. Uh the first phase was in the
1980s and 90s when the United States
started making things like smart bombs
and cruise missiles. Now it's going onto
much cheaper platforms because uh
lowcost semiconductors are ubiquitous
around the world and anyone can make a
drone. And so we've got Ukraine which
inherited part of the old brain trust
from the Soviet missile and aerospace
things combined with a country that's
desperate to survive combined with these
new inputs that they can bring in from
abroad and making thousands of drones a
day. So every 3 months there's a new
page. Uh, first it was singleperson
drones, then it was jamming, then it was
drones with missiles, then it was
water-based drones, then it was mass
drones, then it was Shahed drones, and
it was Shahed drones that could do a
limited amount of target selection. Now,
uh, it's something called the the
Octopus drone, which the Ukrainians are
just starting to use, which is a drone
interceptor.
Uh, it's a new day every day, and I have
no idea how this is going to play. I can
tell you with the technologies that
existed pre-war exactly how this war
would have gone.
>> Those aren't the technologies that are
being used in the war anymore.
Isn't that so so interesting that all of
the dangerous assumptions people had
about modern warfare, all of the
predictability, I mean war war is
unpredictable enough, uh but when you
apply the uh growth curve of technology
to warfare, uh you just end up with I
mean that that weird evolution between
uh offense and defense that we saw
happen. Well, drones have come out and
this is better than using a Hellfire
missile. And then instead of using that,
you get a net and these drones are
defeated by a net. And now the drones
have a little thing on the front that
cuts the net and now the nets are made
of this material. And now there's an EMP
that blasts them out of the sky. And now
there and the uh pace of innovation with
kinetic consequences
is it's mad. It re it's been absurd. Uh
>> right. But this is why it's called the
revolution in military affairs. Um, if
you go back to roughly 1935,
the technologies we were using then up
until 2022 with the exception of the
introduc introduction of the jet really
hadn't changed. I mean, it was guns, it
was artillery, it was tanks, it was
ships, it was subs, it was helicopters.
The jet was the only one that was
introduced and that was introduced late
in World War II, 1944.
We've had more technological evolutions
in the last 3 years just in Ukraine than
the rest of the world combined has had
since 1960.
>> Wow.
>> And so the rules we don't know. We are
only in the very very early stages of
developing the weapons much less the
doctrine much less being able to play
that against a battlefield. Um and we
are very fortunate in the west that the
Ukrainians will want to partner with us
because they are doing in real time uh
the sort of experimentation that is
costing lives that if we were doing this
in a broader conflict would have already
claimed a million people.
>> Yeah, I was going to say I wonder how
many countries are uh watching Ukraine
and Russia almost like a lab. Yeah. The
last time something at this scale
happened, a major conflict in which
people were watching, it was either the
Crimean War or the American Civil War
because those were the two conflicts
where industrialized technologies first
really hit the field, whether it was a
Gatling gun or penicellin or the
railway.
And people are watching and thinking,
well, this is a good explainer, uh, a
good, um, sandbox for us to observe what
these new technologies are going to be
like. How how are these
>> say I'm dark? [laughter]
>> Well, look, I mean, yeah, I'm not saying
that Russia and Ukraine is being used as
an experiment for the rest of the world
to watch, but that's what the people who
are not invested in it directly will be
will be thinking, right? Look at this.
Look at look at look at the way that
this goes forward. I that seems to me I
was interested in what the most
dangerous assumption about modern
warfare was. But the uh the the
assumption that it is predictable or
that it follows any of the rules that
have been established in the past seems
to be a pretty [ __ ] good one.
>> Yeah. No, we still need energy. We need
still still need food. When you're
talking about drones, you need
electricity specifically. So that adds
another layer of things to it. But
[sighs] yeah, uh the rules are changing
very quickly. What conflicts are more
important than Ukraine at the moment?
>> At the moment, that's really the only
one that matters because that has the
nuclear question because of the Russians
that deals with the northern European
plane. So, automatically draws in all
the Europeans. It has the issue of
uniting Eurasia under a single power.
So, the Americans get interested. Uh,
and then of course the Chinese are
providing the industrial base that's
necessary for the Russians to carry out
the war in the first place. So,
everyone's involved uh in some way. Uh
it is by far the most critical one out
there. Uh we'll probably have a few new
ones in the next few years. Um whenever
you break the economic model, politics
gets all wonky and security issues
naturally bubble up from that. And
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