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The Stock Market Sucks? | Know Where To Look! | PS60 Process

Duration: 14:27 2641 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

The video begins by addressing the current market sentiment during the "dog days of summer," a period in mid-August where trading activity often feels sluggish due to vacations and school starts. The host explains that while major indices like the Dow and Nasdaq appear indecisive or weak, this lack of movement is not necessarily a sign of trouble but rather a natural digestion phase for the market. He uses the analogy of shopping at a supermarket to illustrate his point: just as consumers do not buy every item in the store but focus on specific needs, traders should not react to the general market noise but instead identify and focus on specific sectors that are showing strength. The core message is that when the broader market seems flat or "sucks," it is crucial to look for the groups that are still generating high-probability opportunities rather than panicking over the overall drift. The central theme of the analysis revolves around the semiconductor and memory chip sector, which continues to outperform despite the rest of the market's indecision. The host highlights that the highest probability setup for price action is reclaiming the 50-day moving average, a level that many stocks in this group have recently retested and surpassed. Examples such as Micron, SanDisk, TSMC, Lam Research, and Marvell are cited to demonstrate how these names are either grinding higher after reclaiming this key support or showing aggressive expansion once they break above it. The video emphasizes that institutional money flow is not random; when deep short-term call options are purchased at specific levels, such as the 150s for SpaceX or the 82 weeklies for Circle, it signals a deliberate strategy by large players that often precedes significant price moves. Looking ahead, the host identifies three specific names—AMD, Lam Research, and Marvell—as potential candidates to follow the successful pattern of their peers by reclaiming their respective 50-day moving averages in the coming days. He notes that AMD is currently sitting near this level after a period of consolidation, similar to how Micron exploded upward after a brief pause, suggesting that a surge in aggressive weekly call buying could trigger a similar breakout. The discussion also touches on other movers like AAOI and SMTC, which executed large moves immediately after reclaiming their key averages, reinforcing the strategy that stocks returning above the 50-day line have a high likelihood of expanding upward. Ultimately, the video concludes by encouraging traders to ignore the drifting market noise leading up to Labor Day and instead focus on these rotating sectors where capital is actively flowing, promising that patience and chart observation will reveal the standout opportunities hidden within the apparent stagnation.

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Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. >> Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of uh the axisofeviltrade.com nightly wrap-up show. Uh thank you very much for uh tuning in, uh giving us a couple of minutes of your day. Uh all I ask is take a moment out, uh hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already. And again, hopefully I can uh continue to put you in the right direction. So, here we go. So, this is um kind of where we talk about, you know, the dog days of summer. Um it is the middle of August. Your kids, uh depending where you are in in the world, but your kids probably either uh started school or about to start school or within the next 2 weeks of starting school. Um I am Thursday going to uh my son, it's moving day. And um you know, as we approach the end of summer, you are going to notice there's going to be days that the market feels like it doesn't want to do anything. Uh and it's because, again, people are taking their last opportunities, especially here in the Northeast, uh to go on vacation, to move their kids into dorms, or just to have uh you know, the the the typical staycation. Just leave me alone, I'm in my backyard. I don't want to talk to anybody. Uh the point of trading is, remember, all this is real, right? What I just discussed. The problem is, we don't trade the stock market, right? Again, you don't go into uh the supermarket and buy every single aisle, right? You go into the supermarket and you get your specific needs. You you cheese, your meat, your dairy, whatever the case may be. And trading is exactly the same way. Now, if you approach today's trading day from a point of view of nothing is going on, you're probably right, right? You probably did um you know, hit the ball on the nose, right? It market pretty much didn't do anything. Yeah, the Dow down 200, uh Nasdaq down 80, Qs are still kind of uh new you know, kind of distribution this distributing this whole move uh that we claimed the 50-day moving average on August the 4th. And if you look at the majority of names, you know, they're neutral to weak, right? Even the stocks that were very, very strong are neutral to weak now, right? PLTR had a really big uh god-like run. It's tired, right? It it's it's tired, you know, it's kind of tired. It it needs a little bit more distribution uh to kind of move higher. Uh you know, you have names for example like Nvidia, right? Nvidia has been very, very strong for the last 3 weeks and you know, it it started out very well. Say it had a lot of uh call buying coming in and everything was great and just again, it got tired. Uh names like Amazon who's been on their uh pressure in the last several weeks ever since uh Jeff uh Bezos has been selling the stock. Again, not really a lot of great price action the last several weeks, but ultimately again, all this is happening still above the 50-day moving average. Google as well, uh you know, ever since it came out with earnings, not only did it give back the whole earnings move, it lost the 50-day moving average about a week ago and now it's you know, not that far away of losing uh an intermediate week worth of channel. You have Tesla kind of in no man's land. Good news is is giving us a lot of really, really great opportunities from reclaiming the five, reclaiming the 10, reclaiming the 20, traded all the way up to uh the 34 EMA and it's kind of like in the middle of the channel here. Above the 34 EMA, it goes higher. If it loses the 5-day moving average, it goes lower. So, you're starting to see a lot of indecisive charts uh where the price action, the price discovery is kind of in no man's land unless you know where to look. And this is kind of where I always encourage guys. I don't care if you are trading for 10 minutes, 10 years, or you know, anything in between. The point is keep looking at charts. You're going to find that group that's going to stand out. You're going to find that group that eventually is going to give you that highest probability of price action. If you know where to look and you turned around today to say the market sucks, the market's not doing anything, well, you're not looking at the semiconductor group. That group continues to do very, very well. And we saw that latest rounds of sell-offs couple of a couple of weeks ago got completely engulfed. And we talk about the greatest setup, right? The highest probability setup always to uh price action is reclaiming the 50-day moving average. And if you look at a slew of symbols in the last week or so, you'll notice, well, they reclaimed the 50-day moving average and now they're going higher. And that is the theme. So, if you look at every single group for the exception of the semiconductor {slash} memory chips, yeah, they're completely indecisive. But, this is the group that looks like where the rotation is coming in. Rotation continues to flow in. And as the day goes by, you'll notice more and more names are reclaiming the 50-day moving average. So, in the last uh few days, you had Micron. Remember Micron? We kept on talking about watch the you know, they're coming for the thousands, coming for the thousands, they're coming for the thousands short term expiration. Well, it was sitting above the 50-day moving average for one, two days, and today it expanded. Uh SanDisk did exactly the same thing. SanDisk uh was below the 50-day moving average, reclaimed it today, and did very, very well, right? Went extremely aggressive. TSM reclaimed the 50-day moving average about a week ago, and just kind of grinding up. It's up about, you know, went up as much about seven, eight points above the 50-day moving average, and now it's just kind of grinding higher. And if you look at the names on deck, right? You can see where the potential value in the next couple days. Again, assuming they can reclaim back the 50-day moving average. But I'm going to give you guys three names that potentially can reclaim back the 50-day moving average. And unless the market completely implodes, um if the rotation continues in these memory / uh semiconductor names, then these are three names that potentially in the next couple days, like I said, if the market doesn't die, can start reclaiming and start expanding. The first one is AMD, right? AMD is starting to look like Micron. And what I mean by that is if you guys remember, Micron got to the 50-day moving average, and did nothing for 3 days, and then it just absolutely exploded. If you look at AMD, it's exactly it's kind of playing out the same way. AMD right now is just sitting right around its 50-day moving average for the last couple of days. Uh it had an expansion cycle last Friday, and did absolutely nothing today, which is a good thing, right? Which is absolutely good thing. I think if the market continues to kind of even straddle, right? Straddled from Delta neutral to a little bit of weakness, little bit of positivity, kind of doing uh that is concerning or uh eyebrows raising, I think it'll be fine. Uh all this thing needs to do is get that aggressive weekly call buying. If you guys notice, I'll show you guys some examples today. If you guys notice, again, the stocks that are getting the deep option flow, right? The deep short-term calls, like when Micron was at nine, you know, 950, 960, we were talking about guys, they're bidding the thousands, bidding the thousands, bidding the thousands. Well, again, they finally got the the thousand expansion. So, what we are looking for in next few days is AMD to come in for some I would love to see a a buyer come in for like 5 million for the 550 weeklies. Right? That's going to literally, you know, send it off. So, it's definitely a name I am watching for the next couple of days. Look at Lam Research. Same thing, right? Lam Research is now day two above the 50-day moving average. Same group, right? Same group, same thought process, same everything. If there is going to be money flow and it continues to go into the semiconductors, you want to concentrate on the names that are building back either above trying to reclaim it back to 50-day moving average or build above it. LRCX is definitely a name worth monitoring in the next couple of days. And Marvell, same thing, guys. It's the same play over and over and over again. So, Marvell had a very, very aggressive move today. Some short-term short-term call buying coming in. As you guys see, it got rejected off the 50-day moving average. So, it needs to get back above it in the next couple of days. Same theme, same trade, same setup. And if it if everything plays out like everything should, well, all three of these names, if they do confirm, and again, that's a big if, we don't know, they should pull maybe a a Micron, a Sandisk, or possible TSM. So, other good flow that that came in today, and we'll get to the pivots in a second, was SpaceX. I tell you one thing, SpaceX gave a really good move. When SpaceX is very, very close to busting out of this channel. Obviously, the 50-day moving average doesn't come into play here just because, again, it's a relatively short data-driven stock, but you could see they were coming for in the morning, they were coming for the 150s. Then they rolled them over to the 155s. And then that we started seeing some weekly 160 calls. Folks, let's keep an eye on this thing. This thing I got rejected off last week's highs today. Again, I don't know if it'll go tomorrow, whatever the case may be, but let's definitely make sure we set reminders. Let's keep an eye on this thing above last week's channels. If it does confirm, you know, all those 155 160 call buyers could really really wake up and that's exactly what we are looking for. Look at Circle. Again, we haven't talked about Circle in a little bit of time. The reason why I bring up Circle is number one, everybody's kind of forgotten about it, right? It used to be a high flyer going back into, you know, what what was it? 2000? I don't even remember what what year was even monthly, right? Yeah, this thing was a big high flyer in 2025 and everybody just like forgot about it. But you can see here again, it's kind of doing the same thing on a little bit of a smaller scale. It's building above the 50-day moving average. 1 2 3 4 5. You see how it keeps on getting rejected off the 100-day SMA, right? We started seeing buyers come in today for the 82 weeklies. Considering the stock is at 74 bucks, let's keep an eye on this thing. If this thing starts getting back above starts getting back above the 150-day moving average that now it's got rejected three times in the last Excuse me, we got rejected twice in the last three days. If they could get back above the 50 the 150-day moving average, maybe this thing does expand. Again, guys, people the one thing about institutional money flow, they're not just throwing random weekly calls out there, right? There there's some method to the madness. Like for example, this morning when um SpaceX was 143, they were pounding the 150s, right? The stock went to 149.80. So, there's a reason why they're betting when they do. So, when I started seeing some call volume coming in this afternoon for the 82 weeklies, considering that's eight points out of the money, right away it goes on our radar. So, going into tomorrow, I am sticking to the theme. Let's watch for anything that reclaims back, especially any semiconductor names, reclaims back the 50-day moving average. Everything else just kind of looks like blah, right? Just looks like Like like we're just kind of drifting into into Labor Day, right? I'm not really interested in a lot of names. Again, even the strongest names look like they're just kind of tired, but the money flow has to go somewhere. That's the most important part. The money flow has to go somewhere, and if this theme continues to play out, then more and more semiconductor names should light up. So, let's talk about today, right? Let's talk about today. Not a bad day at all. Not a bad day at all. DDOG never confirmed. This was pretty good This was pretty big. It was a little bit too thin for me. I I I can't take a lot of these thin trades cuz I need liquidity, but AAOI really did well. One buyer came in today for the 180 weekly's. I don't know what the hell he knows, but this thing sparked off 15340. This is the This is the pivot, and this damn thing went to 161. Big big move. Congratulations to all you guys who caught it. It traded right up to the daily Bollinger band from the 53 40's right up about 12 points at one point. A really really big move on AAOI. SMTC, again, here's another example, right? Another example of a semiconductor reclaiming back its 50-day moving average. Here is the pivot, 14375. Needs to build, right? SMTC, it's the same setup, guys. You see it? It's literally the same setup here, right? It got back above the 50-day moving average and went up 13 points. Folks, that is the power of the 50-day reclaim. I don't care what style of trader you are. You get You get a stock back above the 50-day, there's a really high probability it's going to expand. So, big move on SMTC. AMD only went up a couple of bucks and it came back in. Not ready yet. Not ready yet. Uh, Apple didn't make it. This was good right off the word go. One they were pounding the 150 weekly calls on SpaceX. 144 and 145 needs to reclaim. SpaceX 1 to 149.80 basically where they were pounding the 150 calls. So again, every time there is a little bit of a rest digestion cycle in the market, you don't need to panic. You don't need to start trying to recreate trades. Just look for the theme. Guys, everybody should be everybody, no matter what stage of your career is, should be looking at a lot of charts. That's where you see the stocks that stare, you know, kind of, you know, stand out like sore thumbs. And for me, in the last couple days, I just been seeing one after another after another these semiconductor {slash} memory names reclaiming big levels. That's it, everybody. Have a great night, everybody. Good speed back to you guys on the field. Hope everybody is doing well. With God's help, again, we will see each other again tomorrow. Take care.