The Seventh Carbon Budget

and welcome to the climate change committee's advice on the S carbon budget this advice Builds on over 15 years of analysis evidence and learning within the committee I am Professor PE forer I'm the interim chair of the climate change committee and also a climate scientist I'm going to talk to you about by the budget number we're advising today batters and why it's the climate change committee that gives this advice for the UK's 10 warmest years have occurred since 2002 from under record going back to 188 Cor in 22 we experien a temperature of over 40° across large parts of the country recent years we frequency frequently seen large areas of the country under under por the UK is already facing the impact of climate change the the climate change act required the country to have a proportional fair and Fe feasable plan for meeting its keagle commitments on climate change cobal land as established under the Paris agreement is designed to keep the well the cloud rather below two degrees of Waring and and make all best efforts to C for 1.5 degrees the UK is committed to hitting Net Zero by 20 50 Net Zero means that most sorts of emissions must be eliminated and the any greenhouse gases that are contined to be emitted must be balanced by the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmos from the atmosphere on the way to 2050 the committee is required to advise government on interim carbon budgets at the most basic Cal a carbon budget is a limit on the that are released in the UK over a particular time period they do break down the longterm problem of climate change into medium-term targets his budget is set by the go government of the day 12 years ahead of the start of that period the RO of the committee is to provide the government with the best G we can of the right LEL of each carbon budget such that Parliament can legislate appropriately and and and then to offer advice to Parliament and government on delivery the committee recommendation is for the government to legislate the seven carbon it for the period 2038 to 2042 535 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions this represents an 87% reduction in the UK's imps compared to 1990 levels when set in in legislation carbon budgets provide certainty to businesses investors and house hes competence in the direction of travel in the UK has driven Investments inovation by businesses in offshore wind solar Power and electric vehicles we very much welcome the discussion about how the the UK should reach Target this is just the beginning the committee is accountable to Parliament and we look forward to meeting representatives from both houses and across the political Spectrum to discuss our work the committee is very proud to give this chice I now passed to hmer or chap executive to take you through her work thanks peers Our advice offers a pathway from where we are today to 2050 with Comprehensive analysis across each sector of the economy the pathway also offers the hope of a more prosperous future for people in the UK in our analysis both the country and individual households benefit from a low carbon economy instead of a future where we remain dependent on fossil fuels this analysis supports the sentiment of UK citizens that has shown up in poll after poll the British public think that action on climate change is important and they want the UK to do its fair share to protect nature our quality of life and the people that we love from climate change to realize this better World requires collaboration investment and honest discussion across Society there are of course tradeoffs and uncertainties in our analysis and the future will continue to surprise us in 2008 when the climate change Act was passed not many people would have predicted the speed and scale of global offshore wind development as a keystone technology for decarbonizing power in the same way the committee has sought to offer sensible but nuanced advice on the emerging solutions for areas of the economy which will be critical to decarbonize in 2038 such as for Aviation however the progress over the recent past means we could be confident about most of the critical action needed by government for the next decade the UK has made real progress whilst delivering against the carbon budgets to date the economy has grown while we have been decarbonizing rapidly the emissions reductions during the first three carbon budgets were achieved primarily through replacing fossil fuels in our power mix the UK is the first G7 country to remove coal from the generation mix a huge achievement the growth of Renewables as a percentage of the electricity mix to 36% is beyond what we could have expected in transport the increase in electric vehicle sales and the legislation that enable it shows the success of government and business working handin hand this collaboration between government and business has been vital in delivering emissions reductions to date our analysis is the beginning of a discussion but this report built on the body of research and Real World experience of the energy transition shows a future worth delivering at the heart of the seventh carbon budget is an energy transition which is gathering Pace in the UK and internationally since the committee offered advice to government some technological choices have narrowed into clear Market winners the costs for Keystone Technologies in power and surface transport have fallen rapidly against fossil fuel equivalents in particular the cost of Renewables and batteries the global average cost for new electricity generation has fallen by 88% for solar PV 60% for wind and nearly 90% for battery storage since 2010 the committee is confident that generating and using clean electricity across the economy will be doing the heavy lifting on decarbonization to 2042 around 60% of the emissions reduction required to meet the seven carbon budget come from electrification in our pathway the clean power transition is vital and must go beyond generating this low carbon energy to deliver a rapid roll out of the technologies that use it it is also vital to make sure that electricity the fuel of the future is cheap this is a critical assumption in our pathway this is against the backdrop of a global move towards Clean Energy Technologies with many of the world's largest economies transitioning at speed internationally the world now invests almost twice as much in clean energy as it does in fossil fuels the UK's carbon budgets are not delivered in a vacuum we are aware of the challenging economic situation and the difficulty with the cost of living that many in the UK are struggling with in recent years the world has suffered both a pandemic and a gas price crisis our analysis dels into the cost of action across the whole economy this covers the technology costs the energy costs the one-off costs and the timing of deployment and the levels of demand our analysis shows opportunities for the UK economy from investing in a low carbon economy as well as the importance of protecting this economy from the impacts of unmitigated climate change over half of the recession since the 1970s have been caused by a fossil fuel crisis this country can move beyond our dependence on volatile International fossil fuel markets and security risks that now come with them which is another important consideration in a less predictable geopolitical age we also estimate the net cost of Net Zero will be around 0.2% of UK GDP per year on average this is lower than in our previous advice this investment will lead to a net saving to the economy by the time of the seventh carbon budget with Benefits then increasing out 2050 this saving comes from replacing dirty fossil fuel Technologies which are less efficient at producing and using energy than their modern low carbon Replacements as in earlier energy transitions the economy overall will save money from cheaper and more efficiently used energy the sooner the UK invests in this decade the sooner we can see the benefits to realize these benefits we will need to see a significant level of upfront investment in this Parliament most of this investment will come from the private sector and the role of government will be to provide the market conditions and incentives for people and businesses to deploy their Capital as well as setting policy to meet wider objectives such as industrial strategy or wider social needs the carbon budgets have helped private sector investment by providing clarity about the UK's future Direction was not being so prescriptive that they prevent Innovation or new delivery Pathways investors and Technology developers plan Investments and projects over decades not parliaments providing understanding of the necessary Capital needs to 2042 is a key outcome of legislating this next carbon budget Our advice for the seventh carbon budget has also considered how people's lives might change through the 2030s the most meaningful change people can make over the next decade is to replace an old fossil fuel technology for a modern electric equivalent for example chooseing electric vehicle when they need to buy a new car or a new heat pump when they need to replace their gas boiler a typical UK household will act on climate change but not change their lives radically they will have a warm home drive a car eat a healthy diet and go on holiday these choices contribute a third of the emissions reduction in 2040 and over 70% of that is just through Heating and transport transitions the efficiencies and falling costs of these Technologies mean that by 2050 a typical household in the UK will save approximately 700 a year on both their energy and on their driving bills of course there are also The Upfront costs of new heating systems and cars themselves and we do offer some advice to government on how these impact different households and how to address these costs where needed there are also wider benefits for people such as improving improved Health outcomes through improved air quality and better insulated warmer homes investing in homeg Grown clean British energy and then using this power and efficient Technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps is a more efficient way of using energy across the economy it significantly protects households from the unpredictable costs of fossil fuel prices by reducing Imports with record numbers of households and business still struggling with their bills this is further motivation Beyond addressing climate change to make clean electricity production and electrification as cheap as possible for the seventh carbon budget we commissioned a Citizens panel to test both the committee's recommendations and wider policy options available to government the results are in chapter eight which is one of my favorite bits of the whole report the committee strongly believes that thoughtful honest informed engagement with the public which acknowledges competing opinions and trade-offs is absolutely essential for progress on decarbonization the panel showed that the public are Keen to understand what they are being asked to do and they're open to change they simply want reliable information and a sense that the transition will be fair across Society with government and businesses taking action to make household choices easy attractive and affordable for all the panel reconfirmed on top of a body of research how insufficient and confusing the public discussion has been to date about low carbon Technologies and about decarbonization overall there has been a lack of clear independent information available to the public this must change and it is another key recommendation in Our advice we provide a full sector breakdown of our pathway in the report which I hope you'll look at but there's one new area in our pathway that I really want to highlight which is our treatment of land and agricultural emissions agriculture is currently the fourth highest emitting sector in the UK economy and by 2040 it will be the second enti emitting sector we need to find a way to deal with these emissions but in our analysis we have been able to balance emissions across the Agriculture and land use sectors by 2050 what does this mean well in our model there will still be some emissions from agriculture in 2050 but this is where the net in Net Zero comes in carbon SE restation from Woodland expansion and reducing emissions from Petland restoration means that in our pathway remaining emissions from agriculture are balanced by the carbon dioxide being removed from the atmosphere through better use of land and the restoration and creation of precious natural resources farmers and land managers will play a crucial role in delivering this transition it is really important that their knowledge and skill sets are used rural communities and farmers are essential to our future in the UK we will not tackle climate change without changing how we use our land but no group has more firsthand experience of how climate change is already impacting us than Farmers with 60% of farmers recently ped saying climate change will have a negative impact on their Farm there's a time pressure on this action for agriculture land use and nature because there are limits on how fast nature can change new trees take decades to reach maturity we need to start ramping up tree planting rates this decade to deliver the carbon removal potential of new Woodlands before 2050 rural communities have always adapted to the needs of the populations that depend on them but farmers and land managers need government support sustainable livelihoods and a plan for what they need to do at a challenging time decarbonization is something we know how to do which offers opportunities for the economy and chances to improve people's lives humans have created the problem of climate change but now we have the means to fix it the committee is also asked to make recommendations and how government might act to deliver the carbon budgets we have grouped our suggestions for this carbon budget to government into seven buckets make electricity cheaper this is vital to enable a switch to efficient low carbon electric Technologies across many sectors remove planning barriers to reduce energy bills and improve our energy security the UK's grid infrastructure needs improving and the processes that can enable this need to speed up provide certainty timely decisions on new technologies and phase outdates provides confidence to investors businesses and the public on what needs to happen next support households to install low carbon heating especially low-income households and support businesses to carbonize UK businesses could take advantage of growing Global demand for low carbon goods and services grow the necessary workforces government working with businesses workers and communities should proactively plan for how to enable this and engage with the public a strategy is needed that engages the public about the benefits of low carbon choices with clear and trusted information now to take you through how we came to these recommendations here is Dr Emily nurse our head of Net Zero thanks Emma I'm now going to talk you through some of the detail of the analysis that underpins our advice on the seventh carbon budget I'll start with a look back on the UK's probos so far this chart shows how greenhouse gas emissions have fallen in the UK in the last three decades since 1990 emissions have approximately halved and the pace of emissions reduction has more than doubled since the UK's climate change act and carbon budgets were introduced 17 years ago the first three of the UK's carbon budgets these orange blocks have all been achieved the reported emissions shown by the gry line are lower than each of the budgets in the next 25 years the UK needs to reach Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions the seventh carbon budget starts in 13 years covering the period 2038 to 2042 to advise on an ambitious and deliverable level for this budget we've produced what we call our balanced pathway this is an emissions reduction pathway for the UK starting from this year 2025 taking us to net zero emissions by 2050 achieving this pathway would ensure that the UK stops contributing to global warming our balance pathway meets all of the UK's existing targets these are the next three carbon bu shown as pinkish blocks and the UK's International targets the nationally determined contributions shown as black bars our advised seventh carbon budget is shown as the last bright purple block as you can see it's a lot smaller than the other blocks as Pierce has said it's a limit of 535 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent setting this budget would mean that the UK's emissions over the 5year period from 2038 8 2042 should not exceed this amount that's an 87% reduction in emissions from levels in 1990 if this budget is achieved emissions will be around a quarter of today's levels in 2040 the middle of the seventh carbon budget period importantly our analysis has shown that not only is this emissions reduction deliverable it will bring additional benefits such as cleaner air low energy bills and improved energy security as Emma has mentioned over half of the emissions reductions seen over the first three carbon budget periods were in the energy Supply sectors shown in yellow here looking forwards action needs to broaden to all other sectors of the economy Emma discussed the role of transport and heating buildings here you can see that around half the emissions reduction needed to achieve the seventh carbon budget comes from surface transport shown in bright purple and in buildings shown in Orange contributions from Aviation agriculture carbon sequestration from trees and other land use and from engineered removals also become increasingly important this is especially true in the last stretch to Net Zero after the seventh carbon budget period now let's look in more detail at these future emissions reductions underpinning our balance Pathways a set of sectoral Pathways showing how emissions are projected to fall in each sector of the economy over the next 25 years the UK's highest emitting sector is surface transport which is currently responsible for around a quarter of the UK's emissions this is mostly emissions from Petrol and diesel cars fans and lorries in our pathway these emissions fall rapidly as electric vehicles powered by Clean electricity replace them the physics of electric cars makes them good efficient Technologies typically with lower running and maintenance costs than petrol and diesel cars in the next few years we also expect them to be cheaper to buy the second hand car this is already the case by 2040 surface transport emissions Fall by 86% in our pathway compared to today the UK's next highest emitting sector is residential buildings this is mostly emissions from gas and oil boilers used to heat our homes in our pathway these boilers are replaced by low carbon electric Technologies mostly heat pumps this happens in our pathway when it's time for households to replace their heating system heat pumps are also very efficient Technologies generally three to four times as efficient as a gas boiler our pathway sees a rapid increase in installation rates similar to those seen in other countries such as the Netherlands and Ireland by 2040 emissions would have fallen by around 2/3 in this sector putting it well on the way to almost completely decarbonizing by 2050 as Emma has said switching to an electric vehicle and an electric heat pump when it's time to buy a car or change your boiler are the two most significant changes individuals can make to reduce the UK's emissions emissions from industry fall 78% by 2040 this is achieved predominantly by Electric Technologies replacing fossil fuel ones there's also a role for hydrogen in industry and for carbon capture and storage Technologies which capture carbon dioxide emissions from industrial activity and transport it to permanent geological storage supporting decarbonization is important for UK Industries so they can benefit from the increasing Global demand for low carbon Goods the electrification of vehicles heating systems and Industry is supported by the decarbonization and expansion of the electricity Supply system in 1990 electricity Supply was the UK's highest emitting sector emissions have since Fallen by 81% and by 2040 will be a further 88% lower than today in our pathway this is driven by a rapid expansion of the already significant renewable electricity generation in the UK our pathway has a backbone of offshore wind and significant contributions from onshore wind and solar supporting this there's a portfolio of other types of generation and storage to ensure sure the UK gets enough electricity when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine I can assure you that we have considered that possibility the missions in agriculture and Aviation already contribute significantly to the UK's total by the seventh carbon budget period they will be the largest emitting sectors together contributing more than half of the UK's emissions emissions reductions are slower in these sectors there's no clear technological solutions to completely eliminate their emissions exist a combination of lower carbon Technologies and practices and measures to manage demand are particularly important in these sectors the balanced pathway also sees reductions in emissions from fuel supply waste commercial and public buildings shipping and Earth gases by the seventh carbon budget period our pathway includes removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere around a third of the UK's residual emissions will be balanced by negative emissions the landu sector will be in net sync by this time getting increasingly negative by 2050 engineered removals from both bio energy and carbon capture and storage and from direct air capture of carbon dioxide will also be being deployed at scale overall the makeup of emissions in 2040 will be very different to today let's look now at the balance of emissions in 2050 whilst most sectors will be almost completely decarbonized emissions will remain in in some particularly Aviation and agriculture these emissions must be balanced by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere such that the UK is at Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions Emma already explained how emissions from agriculture in our pathway are balanced by the natural sequestration of carbon dioxide that's mostly from planting more trees together the Agriculture and land sectors reach net zero emissions by 2050 residual emissions from the other sectors by engineered removals in these Technologies carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere is permanently stored in our analysis the aviation sector is assumed to reach net zero emissions by 2050 with any residual emissions from flying offset by engineered removals we assume that the aviation industry pays for these removals so what does the UK need to do to achieve the seventh carbon budget the dashed line in this chart shows a projection of emissions in the absence of any new action to reduce emissions emissions are projected to be similar to levels today slightly increasing as population and GDP are projected to grow we call this the Baseline this purple line shows our balanced pathway which shows emissions falling over the next 25 years to reach Net Zero by 2050 the emissions reductions in the balanced pathway can be grouped into five key routes that Branch across the different different sectors of economy that I've just discussed first the purple wedges show reductions in high carbon activities for example reducing the energy wasted when heating our homes by installing insulation other examples include reducing livestock farming with a switch from some of the meat and dairy that people eat for low carbon and healthier food and increasing the use of public transport walking and cycling while we see an increase in flying from today's levels this increase is lower than in the Baseline second the yellow and orange wedges make up the biggest chunk by far as Emma has said 60% of the emissions reduction required to meet the seventh carbon budget comes from switching from fossil fuel Technologies to more efficient electric Technologies this is mostly electric vehicles and heat pumps as well as various Electric Industrial Technologies this is all underpinned by an expanded and decarbonized electricity Supply system there are some technologies that cannot be electrified for these the third group the red one shows a role for lowc carbon fuels these include sustainable Aviation and shipping fuels and hydrogen there is also a role for carbon capture and storage which can be used for example to capture the process emissions in activity such as cement production fourth nature-based measures play an important role in our pathway as shown by the green group here trees are planted on land freed up by a reduction in the numbers of cattle and sheep our pathway sees an increase in the proportion of the UK's land that is covered in Woodland from around 13% today to 19% by 2050 and much of the UK's Petland is restored these benefits will increase Beyond 2050 and lastly in Black engineered remov play a crucial role in balancing emissions that cannot feasibly be eliminated Emma talked about how technology choices have become clearer and markets have scaled up rapidly in recent years where that hasn't happened we encourage the government and Industry to develop multiple options until there's a clear technological solution our pathway relies on the roll out of these low carbon Technologies renewable energy generation has already entered the mass Market stage in the K driving much of the successful decarbonization of electricity Supply so far this will continue to increase rapidly as the UK continues to decarbonize and expand electricity generation electric cars are in the early adoption stage with 3% of cars on the UK's roads fully electric sales are increasing fast and as I said earlier we're expecting new electric vehicles to be as cheap as petrol cars to buy in the next few years at this point sales should accelerate rapidly and by 2040 80% of cars on the road are electric in our pathway heat pumps are currently installed in only around 1% of homes in the UK but in almost all other European countries there are many more these are good and wellestablished Technologies and should lead to lower energy bills for households by 2040 around half of the UK's current homes will be heated with a heat pump and some with other forms of electric heat some technology such as synthetic fuels for Aviation and shipping in The Innovation phase investment is needed to ensure they can be deployed and scaled up as soon as possible the transition to Net Zero is predominantly a technological transition such transitions have happened rapidly before and being at the Forefront of these can provide advantages to the UK we've already transitioned away from coal the next stage is to transition from oil and gas demand for oil and gas will fall significantly by 2050 is the UK moves to a homegrown electrified Energy System this will allow the UK to avoid having to import significant amounts of oil and gas in the future overall energy Imports will be less than a quarter of levels today by 2050 in our pathway this will provide better energy security and shield household bills from Global energy price shocks such as those we've seen in recent years so in conclusion our recommended seventh carbon budget is an ambitious yet deliverable Target achieving it would put the UK well on track to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 and ending its contribution to global warming today is the beginning of the seventh carbon budget's Journey the government has over a year to propose their seventh carbon budget which will be voted on in Parliament we look forward to this and stand ready to support in any way we can with that process before that we will be offering carbon budget viice to the Northern Ireland executive and the Welsh and Scottish governments these add up to form part of the seven carbon budget but we have separate analysis for each part of the country we will be visiting those Nations to offer this advice and I look forward to working with each of the devolve Nations this year finally I want to take a moment to address the reality that we're all living with the climate is already changing and the impacts of that are being felt here in the UK people noticed world is changing around them they notice how their neighborhoods or local Landscapes are impacted at times of extreme heat months of rain or floods we are a population of people that has always thought of our green and pleasant Landscapes our gently changing seasons and we have fought to protect them we are a nation that gets Furious when commuter trains are canceled for leaves on the line let alone when rails Buckle under heat or disappear under floods we worry when our precious National Health Service and vulnerable loved ones are impacted by increased Hospital admissions from heat waves or cold snaps we care when food in our shops is more expensive or when our Farmers lose an entire crop to extreme weather adapting to a changing world is also essential and the adaptation committee will be offering their advice on this in 2026 but let us never forget as some do that not doing anything on climate change is putting at risk things that are precious to the UK and part of our national identity doing nothing is costly not costree looking into the future we see genuine hope and opportunity for the UK working for the committee means working with some of the most Brilliant Minds in the country debating ideas and doing our best to offer a transparent and honest view about how the government might deliver a decarbonized future there is no doubt no doubt that a safer cleaner Better World Is Possible this is not some fanciful wish but a considered position based completely on economic realities and scientific models thank you to all of those whove provided support and evidence for our work it is as strong as it is because of all of you now it's down to government to decide what to do with our advice debate and legislate a Target in Parliament and produce their own pathway and policies for delivery