The REAL Bitcoin Bear Market Could Start in 2027 | Alessio Rastani

So, most analysts I talked to believe that Bitcoin has reached the bottom of the current bear market or at least that it's approaching the bottom of the bear market. While you have a completely different opinion, you believe that Bitcoin is actually on the verge of a multi-year bear market. Can you tell us more about it? >> I think we're going to see a temporary bounce before we see another decline. So, as I just said, I think Bitcoin probably has another bounce or rally short-term medium-term the next 3 3 to 6 months before another drop to lower levels. So, this chart that I'm showing here with the arrows pointing to lower levels, I'm not saying these are going to happen. I'm not saying that Bitcoin is going to drop to those low levels this year. I don't think it's likely. So, if I just zoom in on this chart, by the way, this is a chart of Bitcoin Elliott Wave count going all the way to 20 2009. We can see that Bitcoin, and by the way, I should just say this is courtesy of uh uh the trader and analyst Bob Prechter who I recently talked to. So, I want to give credit to him. Uh so, Bob Prechter in his newsletter, he formed this chart and this is what I'm using right now. Essentially, in in his view, we've completed five waves to about 126k, the highs the all-time highs, and we're now starting a multi-year bear market, which could take us, if I just zoom in here, which could take us eventually in the next year or two, I mean, perhaps by next year Bitcoin could be going to 20 uh 20k or about the lows of 2020. So, it's the red arrow, which is about 16 or uh 16k approximately or 15k. Uh by the way, the reason why Bob believes that his that Bitcoin is going to go to those low levels, like for example, where the red arrow is at that wave circle wave four, and even lower if I Bob is much more bearish than me. He believes that it's going to go to 3,500 or 3,100 approximately or the purple arrow is. The reason why is because in Elliott Wave Theory, once the five wave completes, so once we get the five wave rally or bull market or uptrend, when the five waves complete, Elliott Wave Theory says that the next correction, or bear market in this case, typically drops to the prior wave four. So, whatever the prior wave four was, now that depends on how bearish you are. So, Bob is much more bearish. He believes that Bitcoin eventually is going to go drop to the purple arrow, the wave four, uh which was back in 2018. Uh that would be the width of wave four here at about 3,500. I should say that I don't I don't personally think uh that way. I I mean I'm I'm not as bearish as Bob. It's possible he could be right. I am less bearish than he is. Again, I respect his view, but I'm less bearish. I think that perhaps by the end of next year, 2027, we could see uh 20K, 25K, somewhere in the region at this this particular wave four, this red arrow you're seeing here. This is much more likely in my view. I think it's more realistic target. >> Okay, so now let's switch gears a little bit from the long term to the medium term. So, you were mentioning this uh support levels even last time we talked. Uh it was it was the 21 and the 30 34 week EMAs as the key support levels, uh which back then were around 59K and around 47K. You were also mentioning the fact that if we reach one of those levels, uh which we did, so we touched briefly 59K, even a bit lower than that, then we should have expected a significant bounce after that. Do Do a bounce now that Bitcoin touch those support levels? Yes. So essentially Yeah, maybe a short-term bounce. >> Yeah, I mean the at the moment it seems Bitcoin is holding that blue level, that 21 quarterly EMA on the quarterly chart. The blue line the 21 EMA is holding on the right hand side as we can see there. And again, we just go back zoom in here. If suddenly we were to drop below 60k 57k then the door opens or in other words the risk increases for a drop down to the next level. That 34 EMA which is approximately just under 49k or let's say 47k. So if Bitcoin drops below 57k in the next few months then brace for impact. That would be the next level. 49 to 47k at the 34 EMA on the quarterly chart. But I'm not expecting that at the moment because uh I it looks like Bitcoin is holding that level for now, the 21. So I think at the moment we could see a short-term or medium-term bounce to these levels. >> And now just to get like a broader sense of your long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some people say that by 2030 we might reach even 1 million per Bitcoin according to the theory according to which essentially the scarcity of Bitcoin will make it appreciate versus the depreciation of fiat currency. According to expert that you mentioned the this this long-term trend probably won't play out and we're going to see uh trace a retracement back to >> Yeah. >> uh to levels that we haven't seen since 2018 as you mentioned. So do you really believe that could be a scenario that >> Yeah, let me respond first of all to the claim that Bitcoin is going to go is going to go to a million. I do think Bitcoin eventually will go to a million dollars in the next few decades, maybe the next 10 to 20 years. Uh no, I'm not expecting that by 2030. I think, um, I I honestly think that those analysts, respectfully, are wrong. Uh, 2030, put it this way, uh, at some point in the next couple of years, by 2027, and we'll talk about this separately, uh, the stock market is going to is going to top. And when the stock market tops, and again, I know you want to talk about this separately, but we're going to see a recession is my point. We're going to see a recession and probably a depression in the next few years. Uh, and a bear market in stocks. That means it's highly unlikely for Bitcoin to be able to get to a million, um, to by 2030. 2040 is possible. 2040, 2050, yes. Not Not in the next 3-5 years, no. Highly unlikely, very improbable. Not impossible, just not probable. Before we get to a million, we need to see Bitcoin dropping at least to 20K, and probably even below 20K to 16, and maybe even close to 10K. So, I would say that in the next 10 to 20 years, a million dollars on Bitcoin is absolutely possible and probable, but not before Bitcoin goes down to 20K and 10K, probably even, in that region. So, Bitcoin has to first drop to this red arrow, minimum, before it then climbs in the long run, long term, to, let's say, 300K, or let's just say over 300K to a million dollars. That's my view, and I think that's the correct one. Okay, that's that's interesting. >> It seems that you have the same outlook as, um, Mike McGlone, who is a respected analyst from Bloomberg. He also believes that to the asset class of Bitcoin, crypto, needs to purge. So, he it has to enter a a prolonged period of, uh, depreciation, that, uh, he says that he will we will eventually see a 10K for Bitcoin before we're going to see, uh, new long-term uh trend playing out. But, now I would like to continue talking about this by switching to the the stock market because I think that that's connected. So, you were you were discussing in the latest video the stock market and you were making the point that in 2027 or late 2026 even, we might see very strong crash in the stock market similar to the one we saw in in the uh dot-com bubble. Can you explain a little bit the rationale behind your prediction? >> Yeah, thanks, Giovanni. Yeah, it's very good point you made. Um I want to mention a few charts uh to back this view. Now, there's an old uh cycle uh well, there's a what's called a Benner cycle, which uh is very interesting. This uh so, this guy called Samuel Benner, who suffered uh essentially a major economic went through an economic collapse and lost a lot of money in 1875, approximately the 1870s. So, in 1875, he studied patterns in the markets. Um now, he was looking at oh many different kinds of markets, but specifically, he realized that most markets typically follow this pattern. I don't have the I don't have the exact formula in front of me right now, but he put this cycle together, and he found that basically, when you when you uh when this is applied to like, for example, the stock markets, uh he found there's major cycles and minor cycles. So, for example, major cycle tops like 1927, 1945. Now, let me just say that he devised this chart, this cycle back in 1875. But, when you look at this, he got some of these tops and bottoms almost correct. Now, of course, the top was not in 1927, it was 1929. But, still, couple of years off. One more thing to mention here, Giovanni, before I forget. These um num these dates, these years, They don't mean the beginning of the years. They mean the end. So, when it says 1927 year, it actually means 1928 because it means the end of 20 the end of those years. So, in actual fact, when you look at it, for example, when you see when that's a crash the Great Depression crash when it ended, uh the bottom that he's the bottom that he his cycle suggested it was 19 the end of 1931. That is correct because we know that the Great Depression ended in 1932. So, he got it almost bang on correct. Same with the dot-com. If we look over here, 1999. So, we know the dot-com bubble bursted and we saw a bear market start in 2000, which is correct here. That's the end of 1999. And that's uh had a major drop. Now, again, not everything is correct. Some of these are uh not exactly right. So, some of the tops and bottoms he did not get right. But, again, it is something most analysts pay attention to. I pay attention to it as well. Uh because not as a buy or sell signal, but as a tool because it can help us. So, there is a minor cycle in 2026. If we look at some of the minor cycle here, Giovanni, there's one in 2007. That was absolutely correct that the market topped at the end of 2007, as we know. And then started a crash from 2008. Uh now, this one uh this one saw the bottom a little bit later, but again, it's still not that bad. So, according to his cycle, we could see a top on in the stock market, Giovanni, at the end of 2026 to last us all the way to 2032. That's what this minor cycle suggests, which means a top not this year, but in 2027. Uh because these these these are suggesting the end of those years. And if I show you this chart, again, courtesy of um Bob Prechter, um his chart suggests that we have what's called a 26-year cycle. And he mentioned in his newsletter that uh we got this 25 or 26-year cycle going back to the 1890s. And if you project that forward according to this 26-year cycle, we could see a top. So, we can see that top occurring in the year 2026. Uh again, just simplifying this uh for our viewers. And if we apply the Elliott wave count to five-wave Elliott Elliott wave count, we can see that waves 1 2 3 and 4 and 5, the way I have applied them. Bob has a slightly different wave count. This is my own wave count in red. So, we have a wave five top occurring in the year either 2027 or the end of 2026. For me personally, I think 2027 is much more likely. So, I'm not expecting a top this year for the stock market in the S&P cuz I think this S&P probably has higher to go, probably towards 8,000. Uh like by the end of this year. So, I'm not expecting a top this year in the stock market unless the S&P were to drop below support, like 7,300 or 7,000. But for now, as long as the S&P stays above 7,300, I think this wave count is right for a move So, for a a wave count Sorry, I beg your pardon. A rally to proceed towards higher levels, probably towards 8,000 by the end of this year going to 2027. And then if we look at this chart, my final chart here, Germani, this is the S&P going back to 2021. By connecting those highs on this logarithmic chart, uh now you can use a standard chart, too. It doesn't matter, standard or logarithmic. We can see the S&P pulled back to that trend line on the right-hand side. If I just get my pen here. So, if I just get my pen and draw on this, we can see that the S&P came down, held held at level approximately just above the 21 weekly average is a weekly chart of the S&P. Held it approximately that trend line support and the 21 and is bouncing from it. As long as the S&P stays above that June low that I have here in the red line as long as it stays above this level 7,237 or 7,200 the balance of probability still favors the uptrend to continue by the end of this year towards much higher levels. For example the higher 7,000 to 8,000 maybe maybe even above 8,000, we shall see. But that's what my that's my view. But having said that let me also mention this. If the S&P if the S&P was to drop below that level the June lows that would make me quite bearish. Below 7,200 and 7,000 I would have to change my mind and become very bearish on on the S&P because that would indicate potentially a drop down towards these levels like 6,400. >> So you often claim that the four-year cycle theory is not a reliable one because markets are not linear and markets don't work as clocks. But on the other hand you seem to rely on the theory of Samuel Benner which is over a hundred years old to assess future trends in the market. So don't you think that there is a contradiction in that? >> I do look at cycles. I think time cycles are important. It's not that I ignore them. Um but time cycles should be always combined with price action. Anyone who thinks the markets follow this kind of uh predictable simple kind of linear uh progression of you know, the cycle is now ended now we're going to go continue the next bull cycle is going to be very disappointed. Because never in the history of the stock market for example, has that ever occurred where the market just follows uh the cycle exactly. And people assume this about Bitcoin because they think Bitcoin, maybe because they they think it hasn't broken the cycle, that it will just continue not breaking the cycle forever. Wrong. Uh if the if Bitcoin has not broken this 4-year cycle, it will eventually. Okay? And uh people A lot of people will be completely disappointed if they think that following these cycles is like clockwork and and you can you can just rely on it with ease and reliability, you know, it doesn't work like that. You should all My point simply is this. Uh always combine time time cycles with price action. Price is king. Price over everything. That's the first thing. You can uh I you can certainly rely on time cycles, but only as a companion, only as a secondary thing to increase your probability, but price always comes first. That's why we look at the charts like what like what I have here. Support, resistance, key levels on the charts, price levels. Then you go and apply time cycles. That's all I'm trying to say here. >> So, summing up your outlook for the next couple of years, we should be prepared for a major correction to happen both in stock market and Bitcoin market that could completely erase the gains that we saw in crypto in the last cycle, correct? >> Yes, I mean, if we go back to this chart from Again, let's just go back to the banner cycle. Again, potentially a top by the end of this year, 2027. And once the market tops, then I think we could see a significant retracement to the bull market. Uh maybe Again, that depends on how bearish you want to be. I'm going to be modest, modestly bearish, and say once the bear market starts in 2027, next year, once the market tops, we could see a significant uh I think the next bear market cycle could be about at least 50%. Uh, in other words, a 50% crash from the highs. The one thing we don't know is how high this market can go. Will it go to a thousand? Honestly, I cannot answer that question. I don't know. Uh, it's possible and I think it's probable. But if we go to 8,000 and then start the bear market crash from 8,000, uh, then a 50% drop would take us back to 4,000. Uh, so we'll we'll see. But of course, I should say that Bob Proctor, who devised this chart, he's much more bearish than that. He believes that the next bear market cycle by the end of 20, uh, in the next three to five years could take us worse than the dot-com crash, which would mean um, more than 50% potentially. Because on the the in the dot-com crash of the year 2000, 2001, 2002, the NASDAQ dropped by about 80%. So an 80% drop on the NASDAQ, an 80% drop on the S&P, that I mean that would be that would mean significantly lower levels, uh, below 4,000, probably near 3,000 and lower. So So that's that's something else. >> Yeah, and obviously, if this is dot-com like crash happens, that would have a huge impact on the Bitcoin market because of course uh, of the correlation that traditionally links stocks and Bitcoin as both uh, risk-on assets, correct? >> There are some people that disagree with this view. So there are some people, uh, some friends of mine who say that they don't they don't they don't share my view. They say, "Well, what could happen is that in the next recession, depression, the next crisis, financial crisis, maybe Bitcoin will be seen as a better source of value as a as a as an better asset than the stock market as a safer asset than the stock market because of the financial systemic problems that may be in the economy. So, they hold they view they hold a view that Bitcoin will do okay in the next crash and bear market. My view is I have yet to see evidence of that. We don't have any evidence that Bitcoin is not going to follow a crash like the stock market because in every bear market cycle in the stock market we've seen Bitcoin also go into a bear market and follow a similar crash. So, I have not seen any evidence at the moment that shows that Bitcoin is going to do the opposite of the stock market.