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The Mistake That Could Break America - David Friedberg

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The podcast features a discussion regarding California's deteriorating economic and political landscape, described as a fundamental sinkhole where prosperity is unraveling since the 1800s. The host notes that approximately one-third of people he has spoken with have already left the state, while informal surveys suggest nearly 87% of core tech leaders intend to depart. This exodus includes emerging technology CEOs and startups seeking stability elsewhere; for instance, a company planning an expansion from Southern California is now considering moving to Nevada due to uncertainty about future conditions. The speaker attributes this chaos to politicians making unsustainable promises during election cycles that they cannot fulfill once in office, noting that no politician has ever been elected by promising reduced government intervention or taking away resources. A central argument focuses on the state's massive financial liabilities resulting from broken fiscal promises and excessive spending. California established a system with some of the highest tax rates in the nation to fund projects like the high-cost bullet train, which cost roughly 30 billion dollars for limited utility, alongside other failed initiatives such as rural broadband programs where funds could have been better utilized by federal solutions like Starlink. The speaker highlights that public pension guarantees created over the last decade and a half now represent an unfunded liability estimated between 600 billion to one trillion dollars. Additionally, promised healthcare benefits for union workers remain underfunded, creating a situation where the state faces insurmountable debt while simultaneously facing rising costs in essential services like health care. The conversation shifts to the implications of new tax legislation, specifically the Billionaire Tax Act proposed by unions such as SEIU-UHW, which targets individuals with net worths over one billion dollars. While initially pitched as a temporary 5% levy on billionaires, the speaker warns that this mechanism allows legislators to adjust thresholds and rates in future years, potentially expanding taxation from billionaires to millionaires and eventually affecting lower-income earners. This approach fundamentally alters private property rights by allowing the government to assess all assets—including real estate, art, and vehicles—and theoretically seize them based on a majority vote. The speaker argues that this precedent degrades the foundational American principle of limited government intervention in personal wealth, moving toward a system where 51% of voters could effectively confiscate the resources of the remaining 49%. Historical context is provided regarding the evolution of income taxation in the United States, which began as a temporary wartime measure during World War II with rates reaching up to 94% before settling into lower permanent structures. The speaker contrasts this historical progression with current proposals for a wealth tax, emphasizing that while free energy and technological advancements like AI promise an era of abundance where robots handle labor and humans enjoy longer lives, political narratives are steering society toward control systems rather than liberation. He points out that despite the potential for happiness through innovation, public sentiment remains highly unfavorable toward technologies like artificial intelligence compared to other issues or even Donald Trump. Ultimately, the speaker frames the choice facing America as a dichotomy between embracing an optimistic future of abundance and retreating into dystopian fear-mongering fueled by specific political agendas. He suggests that if the United States adopts these expansive control systems, it risks falling behind nations like China, which may not follow such restrictive paths. The discussion concludes with a strong assertion that while technological progress offers unprecedented opportunities for human flourishing, allowing government overreach through wealth taxes and eroded property rights will lock society into a pessimistic trajectory where innovation is stifled by fear rather than embraced as a means to solve global challenges.
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What's happening with this California flight stuff? Cuz I was with Palmer over Christmas and I a bunch of other guys from that side and um I didn't know about it. I knew that it was going to be brought in before the end of the year. It's this sort of sticky thing that seems to be following people around, but it's also going to get worse over time. It seems like there's more and more rumblings that stuff's going to keep on This feels like the sort of core engine of California's prosperity since the 1800s is now unraveling. Yeah. Uh I'm in a bunch of group chats. I talked to a lot of people. I would say probably a third of people I talked to have already left. Uh you're asking about people leaving, right? And I would say um like a survey we did informally in a group which has been published uh talked about is close to 87% of people are going to leave. Um these are the core leaders in tech. And the other thing is I talked to a lot of emerging tech CEOs of startups that are doing really well, that are growing. Mhm. And they're all looking to leave. Like there's one company I was talking to they're going to move up to Northern California from Southern and they're like, "Now I'm going to move to Nevada." And that's because they're worried about what's next. So California's in this fundamental like sinkhole right now. Um it goes back to my point about people making promises. In order to get elected, politicians promise people something that they don't have today. That's how you get elected. >> Mhm. Mhm. You don't get elected by saying, "I'm going to take stuff away from you. The government's going to do less for you." Show me one politician in the last 100 years who's been elected saying that. Mhm. So in order and and the there's a fundamental kind of like moment this come-to-Jesus moment. Can you keep doing these promises? Can you even meet the promises you've already made? And in California, the answer is no. California set up a system um where we created the highest tax rate in the country because of all the success in Silicon Valley, all the income that's being generated, all the success and capital gains and whatnot. And use that to fund a bunch of nonsense. The the bullet train to nowhere. You know, [laughter] freaking like 30 billion dollars in nothing. Like the How much is it? 30 billion. Um And they've had six CEOs, by the way, that have all been fired. And one guy just got arrested. It's insane. There's um got It was just published that this this homeless program, 220 million dollars was spent on it. Six homeless people got themselves out of the cycle of uh poverty that they were in. Um You go down the list. >> What was it sorry, just what was that thing about the affordable internet? Oh, bill. Rural broadband. >> That was it. And for the same amount of money that was spent, I think every American citizen could have got Starlink. >> Yeah. That And that one I That's a federal problem. I mean, don't >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But You're going to get me very emotional. I've been I've been [laughter] very like You seem You seem like an emotional >> very like unemotional during our uh talk about science in the future. And then this is the opposite. Okay, this is the the opposite that happens when social systems become manifest like um rotten. It's a system where people lie to each other in order to keep themselves in power, in order to keep their money flowing, in order to keep this nonsense up and running. People lie to themselves, they lie to their constituents, and the democracy starts to become like, what's the point? Like, does this even work? California in particular, um we made a bunch of uh changes to the pension system. So, we have public pensions for public employees in California. And over the past um uh 12 to 15 years, um those changes have resulted in a bunch of guarantees to people on their future retirement benefits that the state simply cannot afford to meet. >> Mhm. The estimate currently is that there's 600 billion to a trillion dollars in the hole. Okay? The state then has a question, how are we going to like pay for all these people, all the stuff that we promised them? And that's a big part of And then there's also all the near-term stuff like health care costs. Hey, we promised them health care. We promised our union workers health care. We've got to figure out a way to fund the health care because the promises were made. But the promises were never funded. The promises were never possible to be funded. And then suddenly it all comes to roost and everyone's like, well, how are we going to make the payments now? How are we going to fill the hole? That's the situation California's in. California has such a heaping liability problem that it's now you're seeing like all the rats jumping, you know, off the ship or they're burning the ship or the people are leaving the ship. I don't know what the right analogy to use is. But that's the chaos that's ensuing in California in this very moment. And that's And And so we talk a lot about the billionaire tax. The billionaire tax came about because of one union, one guy, one union called SEIU-UHW, who set up a a scheme where they would tax you 5% of your net worth if your net worth is over a billion dollars, which everyone in this audience like, who cares? Screw the billionaires. But what it does is it gives the state assembly, the legislature, the ability to in the future change the threshold and the amount. So theoretically you could take the 5% on billionaires one time and make it 1% on billionaires every year. Wasn't this the case with the original income tax? 1930, it was 1%. >> Tell people the story of how the original income tax >> the original income tax was pitched because we did not have an income tax in the United States. And that was again why this country was founded. It was set up as we no taxation without representation. There was a huge tax scheme to fund all of the, you know, nonsense that was going on in England. Uh and >> Careful. Careful now. I mean, at the time, very different, um not to speak to the people, but the uh let's call it the aristocracy. And uh you know, what we call the elites today. And By the way, the I think about the term the elites, it's sort of like that Spider-Man meme where like everyone's you're the elite, >> [laughter] >> you're the elite, you're the elite. Like the tech guy's the elite. Like that's kind of the moment we're in right now. It's like the tech guys are the elites, but like the tech guys last year were telling they were calling out the NGOs as the elites and then the you know, it's just like everyone's an elite. >> Your privilege is more privileged than my privilege. >> this is all rooted in Marxist philosophies by the way. It's all this like oppressor oppressed stuff. Like again, but all of those philosophies fundamentally distinguish people's agency. Like this is so critical for people to understand. When you give people a bunch of stuff or you create a governmental system or economic system that says you do X, you get Y, you're you're a slave to that system. You are now oppressed, no matter what anyone tells you. You are not getting risen up and you're not and pulling other people down doesn't solve any of your problems. Another conversation for another day. But in California, so we started out as a one So they they way they started the income tax in the United States is they're like, "Hey, we'll promise everyone 1% on high on incomes over whatever it was at the time." I think $10,000 a year. You probably look it up. And that was it. And then over time it's like, "Wait, we have to fund a war." So we And now we're like going to expand the highway system. >> original the original income tax was 1%? >> 1% on high net worth people, on high income earning people. And that's it. Jared, Chad this and find out what how the income tax progressed over time. I want to see this. >> Right. And you can look at this. And so then it became like suddenly today everyone pays an income tax. In California, I pay 53% income tax. And you know, most people pay an income tax. That's And now they're like creating a whole new tax regime. And I want to talk about this importantly what they're trying to do in California. Here you go. It was a temporary wartime tax. And you know, again, leading up to this we had tariffs to fund the government. The government was small. Like the government wasn't meant to be this big system that took care of everyone and did all this stuff. >> Mhm. Keep going. Coming Coming out of World War II and here's the the income tax started out as 1% on income over $3,000 a year. Okay? Yep. >> And and then there was like a progression. They added a 7% top rate later. And then you can kind of see here when the thing kind of expanded. Oh, wow. 1944 to 1945 in World War II the top rate was 94%. >> took everyone's money to fund the war. But but that set a precedent because what happened at that point is after they set the precedent and then we had this kind of FDR kind of New Deal expansionism, all this stuff that happened post World War II in the United States was like, "Holy crap, we can get the government to do big stuff. Let's do big stuff to make our lives better." That you can see that that sound principle like it makes sense. It sounds good in principle. But this is where it leads us to today because every year once you start thinking about the government as solving your problems and doing things for you that becomes something that only escalates up. It never goes down. Think about if 51% can vote themselves what the 49% >> So this is the next thing that happens. So now so so that's income. Let's say you've paid your income tax and you own a bunch of stuff. That's now your private property. You own the stuff. That's yours. So now comes along the government or this new bill, the Billionaire Tax Act in California. And for the first time ever in the United States we're trying to create a wealth tax. It doesn't matter that it's billionaires and it doesn't matter that it's one time or 5%. What you're saying is that the stuff that you've already paid taxes on, that you now own, that's in your backyard, all your iron ore that you've stored in the backyard >> Correct. Get or yeah, or your cool you know, podcast studio. You own these things. You've paid taxes. You've earned your money and you bought the stuff. But now the government can come in and say, "You know what, we want that lamp. We want half your iron ore. We're going to take all your private property for Right, your iron ore." They're going to get all your private property. That's what a wealth tax does is it taxes people on post-tax earnings. It takes away private property. If you give the government the ability to do that on even 1% of net worth for billionaires the next step is 5% of the billionaires or maybe 2% of millionaires. And then maybe it's 3% on people making that have a net worth of 100 grand a year. And by the way, to figure out how much you have, what your assets are, you got to send me a list every year of everything you own. So now the government gets to look into your house, not just see what's in your bank account, what stocks you own, but what cars do you own? How What's the value of those cars? How much is that art worth? What's everything here worth? Private property rights go out the window when you institute a wealth tax cuz now the government has the right to assess all your value and to take anything they want from you based on a vote where a bunch of people raise their hand and say, "We'll increase the tax rate to this, 5%, 2%, 10%", whatever it is. And here's the threshold and we'll take it every year. And when you do that, it eventually leads to 51% of people voting to take everything from 49%. That's That's the worst case. Like that's the end state of this. Is it eats itself and that's socialism. And so I think that a wealth tax and I look, I it's not going to affect me this California tax. So like don't think that I'm trying to like speak my book or whatever the comments or bullshits are. I think this is a fundamental principled issue that by degrading private property rights, we are setting a precedent in the United States that is the foundation of why the United States was set up in the first place, which is for all of us that came to this country to get away from tyrannical governments outside the United States that took all our and controlled everything and told us what to do all the time and we came here and we get to have private property. Sure, I'll pay my tax. Here's my 53%. Thank you very much government for all the great stuff you do, for all the services you provide, but Now off. Now off and leave me alone. And that's not the case anymore when this passes. Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, all these national politicians, AOC, Elizabeth Warren, they're all saying we need to have a national wealth tax now. So it's not just in California. This is going to be the issue between 2026 and 2028. The elites are the billionaires and the tech people, they're coming after them and the manifestation of that is to create this wealth tax and that gives the government the system by which private property rights are gone and the United States has a very questionable future at that point. That's the thing I worry about the most and and I just oppose that with my optimism about the future and this amazing >> [laughter] >> Like I mean think about it. Like this amazing that's happening in the world. We're going to have free energy. We're going to live forever. We're going to have all of this insane stuff that we never imagined abundance and resources that we could never contemplate. Happiness, spending time with family, working less hours, robots that build for us. Everything is going to get better. Everything is getting better. Everything is getting more amazing. And then we're like let's ourselves. Like Why not? Cuz we'll just ourselves. That's that and you know this is this principle of like I I I don't like using the term good versus evil, but it's like are you thinking about the future optimistically or pessimistically? If you're thinking about the future as these are control system, this is these these tech guys are crazy, this is dystopian, blah blah blah. You know, the number one most unfavorable thing in the United States right now according to a recent poll is AI. More unfavorable than Donald Trump. More unfavorable than uh everything. It's the most unfavorable thing because it is this like I this narrative that everyone's been instituted in their minds that like this is the thing that destroys us, yada yada. And that's the choice we have. That's the choice we have right now. Is do we want to walk this path of abundance or do we want to lock ourselves up? And I will say the counterbalancing force and people won't like hearing this, but the counterbalancing force in the world will be a place like China. Because if the United States walks this path, other countries will not walk this path. And it will glean the benefits therein. And we have to recognize that. A quick aside, there is a stat that genuinely surprised me when I first heard it. 95% of people don't get enough fiber. Not because they're being careless, but because hitting your daily fiber target through food alone is actually quite hard. But that's why Momentous built Fiber Plus. See, fiber isn't just a digestion thing. It's the foundation of your gut health, which drives how well you absorb nutrients, how stable your energy is, and how quickly you recover. If your gut isn't dialed in, everything else that you're doing is working at a fraction of its potential. 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