The Man Who Predicted The Iran War: The Next 9/11 Will Target Your Bank Account! | Professor Jiang

I think there are a lot of people who do not like what I'm saying. I am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now. But I'm trying to prepare everyone. And what I want to explain [music] to you today, Stephen, is why the world is collapsing. Because having studied patterns of history and global supply chains, I now recognize and have a framework to predict the future. And I brought to you three, four, five predictions structured around 9/11. >> So what are your predictions? I've been dying to know. My first prediction, if there is another 911 attack, it will be an attack on the US financial infrastructure. Imagine one day you open your iPhone and you're looking to buy a coffee and all the money your bank account has been wiped out and they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it. I believe that's what [music] makes Americans most vulnerable and therefore the most easily traumatized. >> What's prediction number two? >> Is that Lion Messi will become president of Argentina. >> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that. And also, do you think Trump is going to have a third term? [music] Let's take a friendly ban and say $100. Trump gets a third term. There'll be a siege to New York City. Prediction three. My third prediction is that are you sure? You don't think that the US would actually do that? >> Well, I understand a lot of this is going to be extremely pessimistic, but we are living in a time of not just war, but also the regression of civilization. We've basically [music] hit the height of technological advancement. The word collapse you use there is a strong word. >> Yes. I am positive that we are seeing the collapse of civilization. All the stuffing that we have might have seen on television, it is coming to us in our lives and the world is essentially running out of time and I will paint a clear and simple picture of what is about to come. What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place. >> Well, the only that gives me hope is before this episode starts, I have a small favor to ask you. Two months ago, 61% of the people that watch this channel weren't subscribed. We're now down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if you've ever liked any of the videos we've made on this channel, if you like this channel, can you do me a small quick favor and hit the subscribe button? It helps this channel more than you know, and the bigger the channel gets, the more we can invest in the guests and the production. Thank you and enjoy this episode. Professor Chang, what is front of mind for you at the moment? Your energy is giving me some things on my mind. What is that? >> I think that we are living in a time when the world is collapsing. And so what I want to explain to you today, Stephen, is how we got to the world that we are in and why it is collapsing. So first thing I want to explain to you is the um petro dollar system which is the basis for the global economy. So let's go back to the year 1945 and this is the end of World War II and the United States is dominant. The United States will manufacture goods for Europe and for Japan which were destroyed in World War II. So what the United States said is we will lend you the US dollars in order to purchase the goods that we will export to you but you have to promise to pay us back in gold. And the United States became complacent. They were spending money they shouldn't have been spending. United States went from a credit nation to a debtor nation. So in the year 1971, Richard Nixon said that the US dollar would no longer be pegged to the gold. And so the question now was if the US dollar is no longer pegged to gold, then what is the value of the US dollar? So Richard Nixon had to create demand for the US dollar. And so three things happened after the something called the Nixon shock. 1977 in shock. Okay. So the first was a creation of a petro dollar. So Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East agreed to sell their oil only in US dollars. So if you want to buy oil energy, you need US dollars. Late 70s, early 80s, China said the same thing. If you want our cheap manufactured goods, you have to pay in US dollars. Mid80s was something called a pla cord where Japan agreed to take all its savings and buy US treasuries. >> So it's essentially they're buying a a promise from the US. All this is based on promises, right? The US dollar is a contract. It's a promise. China promises to give you manufactured goods and Saudi Arabia promises to give you oil. This system, the petro dollar system create the world that we live in today. So, let me explain why. All right. So, this is a semiconductor. All right? And it's a basis of all technology of all computer. And there are three critical elements in a semiconductor. Silicon, they are gallium and they are germanmanium. Okay. There are many more elements but these are the three most critical and these three together allow uh semiconductors to achieve almost impossible technology. For example, pre precision missiles, satellite communication are all based on these three elements working together. Why we have these three elements in place is because of this global system. Because silicon is mainly manufactured in China about 60 70% of the world silicon comes from China. 70% of gallium comes from China. 90% of the world's germanmanium comes from China. Now for semiconductors to work the process is this. The United States mainly in California, Nvidia or Apple, they will design very advanced semiconductor chips to power the iPhone to power video games. Then United States will send this chip design over to Taiwan and Malaysia for the manufacturer of these chips. The Netherlands and Japan will create machines to print out these semiconductors. So a company in the Netherlands called ASML, they manufacture lithography machines that are worth $400 million each. Then these lethog machines and the chip design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan, but also Malaysia as well in order to manufacture these chips and then these chips are then sent to China to be put into appliances. So when you see this semiconductor, you're not just seeing a piece of metal and plastic. You're really seeing the world converging together. So I want you to remember this formula and this will help us explain how the world works. This formula is very simple. Technological progress is correlated with specialization times globalization. This is the formula. Okay. So it's very simple. All technolog technological progress is premised on more countries being able to specialize and these countries being able to trade freely with each other. And what makes this all possible is global trade that is supported by two things. The first of course is the US dollar. The second thing that's most important is is the US military hegemony. >> Hegemony meaning >> meaning there there are no pair competitor. There is no one who can challenge the United States in control of the seas. >> So you're coming now to the point of why you think because the the claim at the top was that the world is collapsing. >> Exactly. I bring this all up because we need to appreciate what technological innovation is. If techn technological innovation is specialization times globalization then we are living in a time of not just war but also the regression of civilization. So in other words my argument to you today is we've basically hit the apex the height of technological advancement. We cannot go any further because in order for technology to progress, you need greater specialization and you need greater globalization. But what we're seeing right now is this war in Iran, it will cause a chain of events that will force all nations to become much more general. Okay? So you will see a decline in specialization and they'll become much more nationalistic. They will need to create self-sufficient supply chains. So you will see a decline in globalization and therefore technology the progress will have to decline. >> The word collapse you use though is a strong word. >> Yes. >> Is that the word you meant? >> That's exactly the word I meant. We are living not through World War II. We are not living through a shifting of the global order. We are we will live through over the next 20 years the collapse of civilization itself. >> The collapse of civilization itself. >> Yes. >> Are you sure? >> I am positive that we are seeing um the collapse of civilization. >> Give me some definition around the collapse of civilization because people could infer that as oh you know the the dollar is not going to be as strong or they could say okay we're not going to innovate as much or I don't know if your prices are going to go up. But the collapse of civilization. >> Yes. So, let's go back to World War II. Okay, in World War II, if you lived in Europe or Asia, it really seemed like the end of the world. Tens of millions of people died in that war. But at the same time, you had a superpower that was emergent, the United States of America. So at the end of World War II, America was so powerful that it was able at the end of World War II to create a new world order and basically finance and defend this new world order called Pax Americana. And we are seeing the last days of Pax Americana. And then you ask yourself, well then let China emerge or maybe Russia will emerge or maybe Israel will will emerge to replace Pax Americana. And unfortunately what we know is that systems in decline, empires in decline do not go willingly. Okay. So the historical analogy I would use is the Bronze Age collapse because the Bronze Age was very similar to this period in our history when the entire world was globalized because in order to make bronze you needed both copper and tin and these places were found in different places of the world and that allowed for global integration. But because of global in integration over time you that led to massive inequality, debt and polarization. And so when the system collapsed, the entire world collapsed. So I I would argue the closest historical analogy that we have um to today is a bronze age collapse. What was life like in the Bronze Age collapse or how was it different pre-B bronze age collapse versus post bronze age collapse? So during the branch collapse what happened was there was a perfect series of crises that caused systematic collapse. Okay. The first was change in weather patterns climate changed which led to famine primarily in Europe. Okay. We have famine and people are starving. What do people do? They migrate. Okay. They migrate to areas that have food and that this this place is primarily going to be Anatolia and Egypt. These migrants overwhelm the systems of Egypt and Anatolia and this would cause a cascading effect where the entire world lost order. These migrants were called the sea peoples and they were destroying traditional hierarchies and authorities. And once that happened then the very fundamental elements of civilization disappear. So if we apply this analogy to today then I'm going to paint for you a scenario uh of what might happen. All right. So we have this war in the Middle East that is only expanding. It's bringing in more and more countries. So, as you may know, um, since we last spoke, basically all of Iran's proxies have been brought into the war. This includes the Houthis, which occupies this part of Yemen. >> So, the Houthis are a group of military that are in favor of Iran. >> The Houthies are an ethnic group in Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is divided according to tribes. The thing about the Houthies is first of all they live in the mountains. So it's almost impossible to dislodge the Houthies. Saudi Arabia be a tried for 5 years. It didn't work. The other thing about the Houthis is they are a Shia tribe people. Now they're Shia Muslim and they're Sunni Muslim. The vast majority of Muslim in the world are Sunni. about 90% of the entire global Muslim population. The Shia are about 10%. And as a result, because they're the the minority, the Shia are much more fanatical than the Sunni. And this has always been historically true. They believe in martyrdom. So in other words, uh the the Houthies will fight to the death. They're not afraid of death. Okay. And the third thing about the Houthies that we need to appreciate is they control this critical choke point called the Bab El Mandad Strait. This is this is the Red Sea. So a lot of trade has to go through the Red Sea. Now what we know is Iran has already closed off the sh of hummus and the easiest and cheapest way for Saudi Arabia to get its oil to East Asia and South South Asia is by the sea. So Saudi Arabia cannot actually transport its oil. Okay. So that's the first group that is now involved in this war. Houthis. Then you have Hezbollah, okay, which is in Lebanon right here. [snorts] And they are now fighting Israel. Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So they are also very fanatical. And then you also have Iraq, the Shia militias that are basically their own independent militaries. So all four are have been brought into the war. You have Iran, you have the Houthis, you have Hezbollah, you have the Shia militia in Iraq. Why is this important? Because they span the entire Middle East. And so we are now seeing expansion of the war and over time what might happen is more and more nations have to be brought into the war to protect their own interests. How is this different from, you know, I grew up with this Iraq war >> and there was lots of conflict in the Middle East. There was always fighting going on and it's it feels like it's been a function of my my childhood is that the Middle East are always fighting in some capacity somewhere and it you know eventually there's a piece in Iraq and the war kind of stops and ISIS is decapitated or whatever and it just kind of moves around a little bit. >> Yeah, great question. But what's happening today is very different from 20 2003. 2003, United States went in to get decapitate Saddam Hussein and his government. And that was easy to do because you had a government that was not very popular amongst uh the people. So, America specializes in shock and awe military tactics. The problem today is you have four different groups. You have the IRGC in Iran. You have the Houthi in Yemen. You have Hezbollah in Lebanon. You have the Shia militia in Iraq. They are decentralized. They are fanatical and they share a similar esquetology. They share a similar religious framework. And as a result, what we know is the United States military is not very good at fighting guerilla insurgents. We know because of what happened in Afghanistan as well as Iran. These two are what is often referred to as TW as fervor wars where the United States spent trillions of dollars over over 20 years to try to squash insurgents and they failed miserably. So because these four groups are coordinating but they're decentralized. This means that this war can only expand over time. Now Saudi Arabia is feels threatened by the Houthis. So what Saudi Arabia has done is most recently it's signed something called the Mecca Accords. Turkey and Pakistan. Okay. So Turkey and Pakistan and Saudi Arabia now must come to each other's defense. And it seems to me of these three countries, Saudi Arabia will be the first to invoke this mutual defense pact against the Houthies. So you can see a situation where Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia is brought into war to try to dislodge the Houthies. But we know that the Houthies in a mountain retreat are almost invincible. So this war can only expand. And the Houthies in response what they can do is destroy the energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia. The Houthies have ballistic missiles. They have drones. And Saudi Arabia is this giant lake of gasoline ready to be blown up or lit up by the Houthies at any time. >> You know, back in the early 2000s, there was the alqaeda, there was ISIS, there was, you know, there was still Hezbollah in Hamas. So, how is how is this different? because there was lots of military militant groups. >> Great question. Okay. Why this is different is there is active coordination amongst these groups. So al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working separately. But the there are three proxies, okay? You have the Houthis, you have the Hezbollah in Lebanon, you have the Shia militia, they all report back to the IRGC in Iran. And here's the kicker. This is really important. Both China and Russia are supporting Iran in this conflict. China is supporting Iran through the Belone initiative. Basically transporting goods to Iran through this corridor and Russia is supporting Iran through the Caspian Sea. As a result, Iran in theory could fight this war indefinitely. Okay, that's one thing that we have to appreciate. there's a clear alliance in place to make sure that Iran and its proxies can withstand this war. The other thing that's really important for us to appreciate is like the Middle East, it is the heart and center of the petro dollar system. It takes all these barrels of oil in the GCC countries and transports them to India, Pakistan, China, Japan. Okay. And what then happens is the the East Asia takes these barrels of oil energy. Um, could you put the the mirror brothers in Japan? >> What are these little figurines you're asking me to put in Japan? >> So, this represents Japan's contribution to the global economy. So, it takes energy from the Middle East and turns them into manufactured products, consumer electronic products for the world to consume. It makes these in US dollars and China, Japan and the GCC all invest their access savings in the United States which allows United States to focus on innovation to create places like New York City. New York City is also a very specialized area because it basically is a financial center of the world. Okay. So all this is a petro dollar system. As you can see, the system is dependent on free trade. But once the oil stops flowing, then what happens is China, Japan are no longer able to make the manufactured goods they need to export and United States loses all these recycled US dollars. So the three biggest buyers of US treasuries basically the three biggest financiers of the of the US economy basically the AI bubble are Japan the GCC and China. So we will see a cascading effect of theft where maybe in a few months time the system collapses. Do you know what professor? One [snorts] of the reasons why I think it's quite hard for and I'm going to be completely honest. People can take this as they take it, but it's just me being honest. One of the reasons why it's quite hard to [snorts] believe that, you know, the world is is going to collapse and that this is going to be like the Bronze Age collapse. I was I was actually reading about the Bronze Age collapse after you mentioned it. And what I I pulled up here says, "The late Bronze Age collapse was a rapid, violent, and widespread societal breakdown that occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean between approximately 1,200 and 1,150 B.CE. Before the collapse, the region was heavily globalized. Major superpowers like the Egyptians, etc., etc., were deeply inter interconnected through diplomacy, royal marriages, and complex international trade networks. But within a span of just 50 years, almost every significant city in the Eastern Mediterranean was destroyed and many were never rebuilt. And there's a map which I'll throw up on the screen which shows this breakdown. I here's my honesty. As a 34 year old, I have lived a very charmed life. >> Charmed life. >> Yeah. >> As it relates to his, you know, history and the things that happened in history. So when we hear these things that you know the society will break down, there'll be civil collapse, we don't really have a reference point as like Gen Z's and millennials really our parents and their parents they have you know reference points from World War II etc in the 1940s etc but we don't really have them. So it seems all to be quite you know that can't happen to us. Yeah, you're absolutely right. And I think a lot of the issue is the world has been constructed in a way to maintain the privileges of the western populations. An example I use is um you say that we've lived a charm life. Well, if you've been if you lived in Iraq, Afghanistan, these places, you do not live a charm life. Yeah, >> because United States came and attacked you for no particular reason and they destroyed the very infrastructure of your society. Even today, Iraq and Afghanistan are engulfed in political violence and war and political assassinations. And so, you've never known if you were a child in Iraq or Afghanistan and even in Africa, you've you never known peace, stability, and prosperity. So the inequality in the world is stark and we in the west have been extremely privileged to be sheltered from a lot of the chaos in the world. In fact, the US empire is designed to ensure the populations never have to suffer the tragedy and suffering of other people. And what I'm trying to say is this US empire is breaking down and there's nothing that we can do to stop it. So all the stuffing that that we might have seen on television, it is coming to us in our lives and we need to be aware of it. >> When you say it's coming to us in our lives, it's coming to us in our lives. the same political violence, the same chaos, the same political polarization that has infested the rest of the world. Do you think war is coming to our shores? Because we now live in a post new nuclear bomb era. >> Yes. >> And that seems to have created in a weird way a bit of peace, right, >> between superpowers. >> So, I'm going to go to the screen, >> okay? And I'm going to paint you a picture of our global supply chains and what it means for global supply chains to break down using a few maps. And these maps, I hope, will paint a clear and simple picture of what it what is about to come. >> Can I ask you a questions before we go to the screen? Sure. Have you always been pessimistic about the future? >> No. >> When did you become pessimistic about the future? I became very pessimistic about the future after Brexit and the election of Donald Trump because I was an immigrant who grew up in a very poor family. My father was a dishwasher and he was a dishwasher for 30 years before we retired. We're so poor we couldn't even afford a car. We never took any indications. But I worked hard. I got into Yale University, one of the best colleges in the world. And not only that, but I went there on a full scholarship. So from my perspective, the world was perfect. It was a meritocracy. It was a place that rewarded talent and hard work. So I believed that the world was governed by reason, by logic, by science, by truth, by good people. And when Brexit and the election of Donald Trump happened, I was traumatized. Brexit was the British people turning away from globalization. The election of Donald Trump from my perspective was the American rejection of meritocracy, of reason, of truth, of of order. And when that happened, it sort of told me what I believe about the world didn't really work. And when those things happened, that forced me to reflect deeply on why the world was was breaking down. And those events led me to today. Because what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to figure out patterns of history, principles of society that allow us to better understand ourselves. And that's why I drew you this formula because traditionally we understood innovation as maybe coming from universities. And having studied history, having studied global supply chains, I now recognize that no technology just comes from specialization and globalization. And this not only is an analysis of the current world, but it also gives us a framework to predict the future, right? So if in a time of war, commercialization, globalization break down, then in theory, technology should break down as well. Okay? 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And what they've been building is this new tool called Stanley that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history, looks at your best performing posts, and tells you what you should post, makes those posts for you. You can also just use it for inspiration. And sometimes what we need when we're thinking about doing a post for our social media channels is inspiration. Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life, and I think it could change yours, too. So, I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot and let me know what you think. All you have to do is search coach.stand stand.store now to get started. >> So this is a summary of the global supply chain network and we can see how it involves the entire world. You are not able to build semiconductors unless you have a globalized economy. So there's been a lot of talk about China controlling the elements, right? So, China manufactures about uh 70% of the world's silicon and rare earths, China controls about 70% of rare earths. What people don't appreciate is it works both ways. Okay? So, China does export a lot of silicon and rare earths, but it also needs to import a lot of helium in order to sustain its semiconductor manufacturing process. The reason why is helium cools these semiconductors in a way um to to allow it for to be manufactured. Okay. So, helium is a cooling agent. Another thing that people don't appreciate is people think that China has a monopoly on rare earths, but America in a place called Spruce Pine, Spruce Pine, North Carolina. This area has monopoly on high quality quartz. It controls about 90% of the world's high quality quarts which you need in the silicon manufacturing process as well. Okay. So if these nations start to stop trading with each each other technology would cease to progress. Now something to keep in mind is it's not just semiconductors that are dependent on the global supply chain. Food is also very dependent on the glo global supply chain. So what we're seeing is a stark contrast between the north and the south. So the north, okay, produces most of the world's fertilizer and the south, okay, primarily Africa, the Middle East and South America, they import a lot of the fertilizer. This map shows it much more clearly. Okay, so ammonia is a very important component of fertilizer. And as you can see, most of the ammonium production plants are actually in the north of the world. Canada, United States, Europe, China, Russia. [snorts] So the south, the global south is dependent on the north for food. In a time of war, when global supply chains break down, the north might lose access to fancy wireless smartphones. The south will face famine. Okay? Why is this important? because the world is rife with conflict. The main issue that we're we will face next 20 years is not oil. It's actually water. All right. So, this map that we're seeing right now is actually telling us where the next major geopolitical flash points are. So basically if you see red on the map it means this place has water scarcity issues and the red issues tell us exactly where wars will erupt. Okay. So, even the United States, if you look at the western part of the United States, they do have water scarcity issues. And actually, if you go to uh the western United States, Colorado, California, Arizona, these places, they're fighting over the Colorado River because the Colorado River is what supplies most of their water. You go to the Middle East and you know that the Middle East is almost like a dynamite ready to explode. And what this war will do is aggravate all the tensions in the Middle East. India itself is facing water shortages which brings it into conflict with China. Okay. So this one map if you can just see it, it basically tells you um where the next geopolitical flash points will be. It means a place that is most likely to go to war or have conflict or political violence with the next 20 years. Okay. But also here is north uh east Asia. Japan is here. North Korea is here. Okay. So that's another major flash point. So this is what over the next 20 years where war is most likely to break out. Okay. But what's important to appreciate is once war breaks out there are third order effects um causing conflict to spread around the world. Okay. This is a really important map for us to appreciate as well. This map tells us fertility rates around the world. As you can see, Africa has the world's highest fertility rate followed by the Middle East. Okay. >> So, they're having the most children per couples. >> That's right. Why is this a problem? Because if you go back to the previous map, this area is also where there is the most geopolitical tension. And so if there are more and more children, young people being born here, they have no choice but to migrate. And where will they migrate? Probably to Europe. And you're like, well, okay, well then what Europe should do is turtle up. Europe should build walls and prevent these migrants from reaching Europe. But Europe has its own problem, which is the aging crisis. Okay. So, look at what's happening where the fastest aging populations are in fact in the most developed nations including Japan, Europe, and North America. So, if you have an aging population, you need to provide cheap health care, nursing. What What does that mean? It means you have to let in more immigrants in order to surface the aging population. And what will happen then is domestic conflict where you have more migration into western societies which brings them into conflict with the native populations and therefore it is possible you have civil war as well as political violence and even the possibility of revolution. Okay. So these maps collectively paint a very grim picture of the world that we're we're living in. >> On this page here about immigration causing civil war political violence, revolution, won't it just be the case as we're seeing that these western societies will increas right-wing political parties, which is kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing, you know, parties in the UK like reform surge. I think there was news yesterday in Germany of the the political party there. We're seeing I mean we're seeing the same in the United States as well. >> That that's a fantastic point. That's that's exactly what we're seeing. We're seeing the AFD surge in Germany. You know, MAGA being very dominant in the United States. We're seeing Vox in Spain. So, in theory, what's going to happen is these countries become much more right-wing and then they block out immigration because that that is their main policy platform. And that should stop the civil war. >> The problem is what do you do about your aging population? >> Robots. >> Exactly. Right. That's what you would think. But what we're seeing is a breakdown in global supply chains. Robots depend on copper, right? Which you get from Chile, Peru, China, Australia. These are pretty far away places from Europe and United States, right? You also need lithium which you get from the lithium triangle again pretty far away. You also need silicon which is u mainly manufactured in China. You need rare earths which again is really manufactured in China. You have this you have this huge issue where in theory you could use robots but in the but when global supply chain breaks down you have to figure out the cheapest way to resolve the labor issue and the cheapest solution is immigration. Right? People I had to say this, but people are much cheaper and much more expendable than robots. So, I know this is a bit scary. I know this is really depressing, okay? But what if the United States were able to win this war in Iran and conduct regime change? Then our problems are solved. Right now, Iran is under the control of the United States and we're back to globalization where oil is able to flow to South uh Asia to East Asia and then they manufacture goods and then recycle their profits into the economy. And with all this money, AI is able to innovate to a point where we achieve AGI and then we solve all the world's problems. Okay. So what happens next with this whole Iran situation? >> So unfortunately it has now des momentum. All right. So let me explain what is most likely to happen. Okay. So you have Iran and you are now controlling the Shamus, right? You have the Houthis and they control the Bao and Mandad Strait. You have Hespala which can threaten the Suez Canal. You have the Shia militias that can also threaten the Mediterranean. Right? From a game theory perspective, what Iran should do next is take the initiative and disrupt all global trade. And the reason why is the US empire is based on the petro dollar. It's based on global trade. When you disrupt global trade at the same time, there's no way for the United States to respond. >> How could they disrupt global trade? what they can do is start to attack randomly. Okay. So what who can do is attack Saudi Arabia? Um Iraq can um attack Israel. Iran can attack the moves. Uh Hezbollah can attack the Sewish canal. Okay? And why you do that is you're creating uncertainty and chaos in the global trade system. Why is that important? Because the global trade system is built on confidence and that's what drives insurance. Okay? So if you're an insurance company, you're like, "Oh my god, these countries are sorry, these [snorts] actors are completely out of control. The United States has lost control over the situation." You can no longer ensure global shipping. If you can't ensure global shipping, global shipping ceases to work. All right? So this is a madman theory and this is Iran's best play moving forward. And the reason why is the United States does not have the military capacity to respond to a coordinated random strike across the Middle East. >> So is this your prediction? Is this what happens next? >> I don't want to make this prediction just because there are lots of factors I do not know. Okay. So, so first of all, I don't know politically what the situation is in Iran. Certainly, the IRGC would want to do this, but there are political factions within Iran who would think this is too provocative, and it's possible the entire world would unite against Iran if Iran were to do this. >> So, what is your prediction in terms of Iran and what happens next? >> My prediction is this will only escalate. How it will escalate, I don't know. Okay. But the trump card to use a pun for Iran is to start to disrupt global trade. But United States has a response and this response is to attack Iran's critical civil infrastructure which includes dissalination plants and power plants. And this would be worse than using a nuclear weapon on Iran because without power plants, the people in Tran, a city of about 10 million people, they face starvation because a lot of this food is refrigerated. This is how the war becomes almost civilization destroying. If Iran were to completely disrupt global trade and if the United States were to destroy the power plants of Iran, >> obviously that would be horrific and uh sort of inconceivably horrifying for the people that live in Iran, the innocent people that are caught in the middle of this. You don't think that the US will actually do that though, right? >> I think the United States will be forced to do it. >> You think they'll be forced to do it? >> Yes. According to game theory, they will be forced to behave like this because we need to appreciate this formula where the more power you have, the less imagination, empathy you have. You and so the idea is you don't think killing millions of Iranians is a too heavy a price. It's all worth it if you can maintain the empire. The hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle. >> Don't you create a huge migration crisis where people start fleeing from Iran up into Europe because they are starving. >> Exactly. Right. Not just Iran, but Africa as well because they've lost access to cheap energy and fertilizer. So you have all this migration into Europe which would overwhelm European the European social fabric which would overwhelm the European state. But unfortunately, this has been happening at a much slower pace ever since 2014 when for whatever reason the United States chose to destroy Libya and cause civil war in Syria which caused millions to migrate into Europe. And as you remember the Europeans in the generosity accepted all these migrants which is leading which has led to tremendous social friction and political tension in Europe today. >> So your prediction here if we conclude then is that the US won't win this quote unquote war in the Middle East because they can't defeat Iran and its proxies. But also your conclusion is that this is going to continue to escalate in the Middle East. >> Yes. And already what we're seeing are other actors being drawn into the war. So the so the most recent news is South Korea has authorized a naval contingent to go and try to secure the home moves. >> What would you do if you were Donald Trump? [laughter] >> I mean [gasps] um what would I do if I were Donald Trump? I would push all in. I would start attacking power plants in uh Iran because if I take any half measures, I would just look weak and I'm only going to create more problems. I would only incentivize Iran and its allies to be more provocative, to be more aggressive. So if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this situation, I would just push all in. >> You would end up killing millions of Iranians theoretically. Well, I start this war, right? Then I have to win this war because I can't lose this war. I refuse to lose this war. I mean, again, I I understand the concerns. Okay? But if you want to understand how these lead leaders think, this formula gives you the best window into into the psychology, which is because of so much power, they lose the capacity to imagine different possibilities and have empathy for the suffering of the people in the world. >> Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't they just couldn't Donald Trump just say do a big press conference where he says, "We won this war in Iran. We've destroyed their military, their naval bases. It's done. and Iran will no longer have a nuclear weapons. >> The entire petro dollar system is premised on two things. The US dollar as the world reserve currency and the aura of inevitability and invincibility of the US military. >> If they look like they are beatable, then the the US as its image is sufficiently tarnished. >> Right. What are your predictions? I've been dying to know. So I brought to you three predictions and because we are so close to the anniversary of 911 in New York City um I um structured these predictions around the anniversary and so these will be three fun but horrifying predictions. Okay. All right. So my prediction number one is there will be a siege of New York City. All right. So let me explain my logic. I was here last time and I said that Donald Trump will get a third term and he's been joking about it. He's been talking a lot about it. He's been socialing about it. And so let's imagine what happens if Trump gets a third term. Well, you would have a lot of pissed-off people, especially in the major cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and New York City. We should probably just pause there because there is a a constitutional ban on serving three terms. The primary barrier being the 22nd amendment, which was ratified in 1951 by Franklin D. Roosevelt, um, who won four elections. It establishes a strict term limit for the presidency and the text in the 22nd amendment explicitly says no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice. So how could that happen? Well, let's just say there is a national emergency and the president is forced to suspend the constitution. Then he could theoretically have his third term. It's also possible that in 2028 he decides to run as the vice president and have his son Don Jr. run at the top of the ticket and then once the election is over then Don Jr. would resign and then Donald Trump would become the president and there's nothing in the constitution that prevents him from doing that. So there are two possibilities. There isn't anything in the constitution that allows the US president to suspend the constitution in a in a time of a national emergency. >> It's president. Um so for example during the American civil war Iran Lincoln was able to suspend habius corpus which is a constitutional right in the US constitution. And during World War II Franklin Delano Roosevelt also did many unconscious things. for example, interning the Japanese population uh in caps. [snorts] There's nothing the Supreme Court could do against uh this uh because a lot of US politics is convention. It's agreed upon norms. But if a US president is like, well, screw these conventions. There's nothing anyone else can do about it. All right. So let's imagine, okay, just for for the sake of this argument, Trump gets a third term. What will happen is these cities that are democratic will be an open revolt, meaning they will refuse to pay taxes to the federal government, but they will also not welcome ICE federal agents into their cities, which creates conflict between local law enforcement and federal law enforcement. And historically, if that were to happen then the president, US president usually thinks that he has responsibility to quash this insurrection, right? And so this would over time lead to the siege of New York City where may maybe federal forces along with possibly militias from other states, possibly red states that favor Trump. They would try to besiege New York City by cutting off the food supply and water supply to New York City. And this will be a conflict that could go on for years and years. >> And what year would that take place? 2028. It could happen right after um Trump secures his third term. >> Do you think Trump is going to have a third term? >> Um do you want to bet? >> Yeah, >> I think he'll get a third term. >> How much you want to bet? >> Let's take a friend bet and say $100. >> Do you know said this before, but I actually did have a bet with two random guys on Facebook. I don't use Facebook, but I had to bet with two random guys on Facebook a couple of years ago. They told me that after Donald Trump had lost the election to Joe Biden, they told me that he was going to stay in power. And so I said, "There's no way he stays in power." >> And they said, "No, he will." So they and then they offered me a bet. They said, "£1,000 each. We bet you he's going to stay in power." They were like queuing on people. And I said, "Fine." And they actually did pay me when he he came out of power. They they transferred me $1,000 each. I gave it to charity. But so I'm more than happy to make another bet if you want to make a bet. >> Yeah, let's do it. $100. $100. >> $100. And you're betting that Trump gets a third term? >> Yes. I think he'll be in power after 2028. Is that fair? Like like he'll be in power after 2028. >> When's the election? >> Well, the election should be November 4th, 2028. But I I didn't say he would win the election. I I just said he he would get a third term. >> So, you're saying that he will refuse to leave office or find another way to remain president beyond the date of the inauguration? >> Yes. I'm saying that uh on January 21, 2029, Trump will still be in the White House. Okay, I'll take that bet. >> Okay, >> if everyone's clear. And please do uh remind me to cash in, lads. >> $100. >> Okay, [laughter] $100 may not be worth anything at that time, but that's $100. Okay. >> Okay. >> All right. So, again, we are just assuming for the sake of argument that Trump is in office in his third term. There will be political violence uh across United States, primarily in New York City. And if the federal authority is being challenged by a city or lo local state authority, then the president will take this very seriously and send in forces to quash this insurrection. Maybe other cities will be much more compliant. But New York City has a very charismatic mayor in Zohan Madani and New Yorkers. You don't want to mess with New Yorkers. When they get angry, they get really, really angry. So, so this I think uh is uh very likely if Trump gets a third term, there'd be a siege in New York City. >> He would almost [snorts] be 83 years old. >> I mean, we say that, but like the amount of energy he has, right? The fact of the matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers every day. He gives a press conference almost every day. He's always on social media tweeting out something stupid. For example, he's tweeted out that, you know, all of North America is now the USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that yet. And he's talking about taking over Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So, I don't know where he gets his his energy, but he seems really energetic. I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed Obama. >> Michelle Obama. >> Okay. But like if you just look at the picture of Obama in 2008, he was a really handsome, really young, very vibrant man in 2008. You fast forward eight years and he came out just decrepit. Okay, he he was he had aged like at least 20 years in his office. [snorts] Donald Trump, for whatever reason, has not aged that much. hair dye and fake tan. >> He So, there's something really weird about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US journalists in Washington DC have his direct personal cell phone number and they can call him and they will talk for an hour. Like the guy is the president of the United States. And if you are just an average Washington journalist, you can call him and talk to him for for an hour a day. There are journalists who go to the White House to interview him and says like we try to get we try to like leave like an hour ago, but he he made us stay and talk to him some more. He would not let us leave. So I don't know where he gets his energy from, but he's extreme extremely energetic and he loves that attention. >> Okay. What's prediction number two? >> So again, we are approaching the anniversary of 911 and there are a lot of people who fear there will be another 911 attack on the United States just because you have a lot of actors that are very angry at the United States and who may want to seek vengeance against the American people. In that case, if there is another 911 attack on the United States, I believe it will be an attack on the US financial infrastructure. Okay. So, let me explain my reasoning. What was 911? 911 was an act committed by terrorists in order to traumatize the population into self-destructive violence. Is that a fair statement? >> I don't really know. Is that was that the >> So, let's parse the statement. 911 was an attempt to traumatize the American population into selfdestructive violence. What I mean by that is you're taking the symbols of American power, which are like these airplanes >> as well as the Twin Towers. These are symbols of American power >> and the Pentagon. >> And the Pentagon and the White House and you're destroying them. And for the longest time, American people believed that these are symbols of American invisibility, our planes, our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And to see them destroyed like that would traumatize the population. In fact, it did traumatize many, many people. And the idea is you traumatize them into a self-destructive violence, which means like they want vengeance. And so what did they do? They went to the Middle East, fought against the Taliban and Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq, then this war spread to Syria, Libya, and we can say that these 20 years of these forever wars in the Middle East have been very destructive for the United States. It's caused a huge fiscal deficit. It's caused uh the American military to lose a lot of prestige. It's caused a lot of corruption in Washington DC. It's been very bad for the United States. All right. So, if you're at the terrorist and you look at 911, you're like, "Okay, well, I want to do the same thing, which is like I want to traumatize people into self-destructive violence. How can I do so? Well, I need to traumatize them, right? Me flying planes into the new the the new twin towers doesn't do that because people are now used to they've they've been normalized into this sort of violence. So how can I induce trauma into people? Well, there are different possibilities you can use, right? So let's do a thought experiment. What would happen if one day you open your iPhone and you're looking to buy a coffee? Well, you scan your iPhone and it doesn't read and you're like, well, there might be a problem with the bank. You call the bank. you can't get food to the bag. And like after hours and hours of frantic anxiety, you finally recognize that there's an attack on critical US financial data servers. And so all the money in your bank account has been wiped out and they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it. Would you feel >> concern? I would say you would feel more than concern. I would say you would feel a lot of anger and anxiety and frustration. >> That must be hard to do. Surely taking out the financial infrastructure for everybody for a long enough period of time where they start to feel real world consequences. >> Would you say 911 was hard to do? >> Yeah, >> I would say so as well. I can possibly imagine them doing this. So there is certain creativity to these people and I would not rule that out. But I'm just saying if another 911 happens, it is possible what we'll see is the destruction of the US financial infrastructure, which would drive millions of people into a mad frenzy. You've worked your entire life to save up $2 million. That $2 million is your retirement. It used to be that working for yourself was a massive, massive risk. But that world has completely changed. If you've got a business idea that you can't stop thinking about, I think you owe it to yourself to at least try and make it happen. And that is where our show sponsor Shopify comes in. Their smart platform includes everything you need to start selling and get that idea off the ground. They have this drag and drop editor. They have this AI sidekick and helps you. They have analytics and you don't need to be an expert to get going. Shopify's best-in-class checkout makes sure that you're getting paid from day one. It helps more of your customers finish their purchase because their checkout is so efficient and it saves their info for next time. Personalized checkouts like that equal more conversion, equal a faster growing business. Nothing kills that early enthusiasm you have for a new idea than that first initial step to get going being difficult, complicated, or expensive. And you need to save as much time and money so that you can focus all of it on growing your actual business. And that's what Shopify gives you. Head over to shopify.com/bartlet and you can start your free trial right now. You said to me at the top of the conversation you're having difficulty getting back into the United States recently. >> Yes. What do you mean by that? >> So I think there are a lot of people who do not like what I'm saying. I would say I am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now. So, uh, the story is that the Iran war happened in March and it made me famous and I was really afraid that this fame would annoy and frustrate a lot of Americans and so I uh decided that I should not actually go to United States at this point because it's most likely that I come here and I could be held in detention by customs. I could be deported. And so that time period was uh extremely um scary for me. And I I refused all offers to come to United States. There were quite a few people who wanted me to fly United States to be interviewed. So then what happened is over the summer the war started to die down. thought, okay, let me fly to Canada where my family is. And I'm in Toronto and I'm going to try to enter United States by ear from Toronto. So on August 5th, I went to to the Toronto airport, Pearson. It was like 7:00 in the morning because I had an early flight to Los Angeles. [snorts] I told them that I was going to go on the Theo Von show for and I'll be in the United States for 2 weeks. Uh which was all true. So, so when when I'm at customs, the immigration officer asked me a lot of questions, but I I handle all these questions pretty smoothly. Then he asked me, "Do you have a travel letter for your son?" Because my son Chris, who's 8 years old, he's traveling with me. And I'm like, "What is a travel letter?" And again, this this like 7:00 in the morning, so my brain's not working. He's like, "Call your wife." Like, "Okay." So, I try to call my wife. My wife is in the shower. And so then the immigration officer says, "Okay, you have you have to go into secondary to be interrogated to make sure that your son Chris is traveling with you willingly." So we go to we go to into secondary and it's like 7:00 in the morning and my flight's at 8:30 and we're waiting for like an hour and I'm freaking out because it seems like we're we'll miss our flight. And during this hour I'm texting my wife and she's given me the birth certificate. She's given me all the materials I need to prove that this son that Chris is is my son. And then um at the very last minute we get called and a minute a minute I'm able to resolve the issue. And I tell him I'm going to go on the field von show and uh I'll be there for two weeks. So, I'm in the United States and I get contact from other podcasts to do interviews and I travel around the United States and I I forget about the two week promise to the um immigration authorities because uh I'm not sure if you know the law but I'm Canadian I'm I'm a Canadian citizen and therefore I don't need a visa to come United States. You know, if if you say I'm coming for two weeks but you stay a month, it's usually not an issue. I go back to Toronto and I come back to do this podcast. And so yesterday I am put in yesterday I'm ready. Okay. I have my travel letter. I have my son's birth birth certificate and I go to immigration officer and they still put me in uh secondary. But basically, I think what happened was I said certain things during my podcast interviews that piss off some really powerful people in the United States. A lot of things that I said were related to something called the clean brick memo, which you have. The Queen Greek memo was published in 1996 and it laid out a plan for how Israel can become the dominant hegeimad in the Middle East. It's written by a study group and part of the study group there were two individuals. They were Richard Pearl and others five. These two would in the George W administration sorry George W. Bush administration go working in the Pentagon and these two along with Paul Wolfitz were the chief architects of Iraq war. So I named these people and I explained how this war in Iran follows from the clean brick memo and the goal is to establish Israel as the regional hedgeimon and I think this is what got me into a lot of trouble. >> Why do you think that got you into a lot of trouble? >> Because I'm a Canadian. when I come into the country, they usually don't bother me. And so for them to question me, I think it was because some top officials basically requested that I be put in secondary every time I come to the United States. And I I also believe this because I have a friend Max Bumantho who is a very good US journalist and he was in Iran covering Kam's funeral. In response um a social media influencer named Laura Loomer demanded his arrest. And so when Maxville came into the country and he is a US citizen by the way, his devices were confiscated. And now Max Bumo is suing the Department of Homeland Security for illegally uh confiscating his devices. And so I think that we live in a time when unfortunately the empire is in decline and because of hubris and arrogance they are trying to silence their critics rather than accept our constructive criticisms. >> Okay. So it's a theory. >> Absolutely. Right. They never told me why I was put in secondary, but he hinted at me that every time I come to United States, I will be put into secondary to make sure that I'm coming United States for legitimate reasons. Also, he hitted at me that it is possible that once my I94 expires in 6 months, they will not renew it, meaning they will not let allow me in the country anymore. I hope I come back to United States. I I have the deepest admiration for the American people. I think that the Americans are the most open and generous people in the world. But at the same time, I do appreciate that we are living in very interesting times. >> Prediction three. >> Okay. My third prediction is that Lionel Messi will become president of Argentina. >> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that. >> Yeah. So I wanted three new predictions that were fun and interesting for us to uh discuss. So why I make this prediction is that Argentina is working very closely with the United States and Israel at this moment. You are a British citizen, so you will appreciate that Argentina has recently demanded the return of the Faullands. And Donald Trump has voiced support to Argentina. So I'm asking myself, why are they so concerned about the Folklands? And not only that, but if you've been following the news, Hav Malay has become very close with Benjamin Benjamin Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel have very strong relations. In fact, Argentina is welcoming Israeli investment and immigration into Argentina. And apparently if you are an Israeli citizen and you go into Argentina and again you can fact check this but from what I understand you have immediate access to their healthcare as well as pension which makes actually no sense because they're not Argentina citizens right so it seems very much that Argentina is working very close with Israel and the United States and the reason why why I think that is and Argentina are working very close together is right now there's almost a civil war in Israel, when Misianic Jews who believe this war in the Middle East will usher in the end times and the coming of the Messiah, and secular Jews who are like, "These people are insane." And so, the only way to resolve this conflict is by exporting secular Jews elsewhere. And it seems to me, um, Argentina is a very good place to export them. So, but then you're like, okay, how do you get the people of Argentina to accept this massive immigration into into Argentina from Israel? Because Israel is not very popular in Argentina. I think the best way is to make Lionelo Messi the president of Argentina and his popularity will be enough to let all these Israelis into the country. Him as well as the reclaiming of the Faulland Islands, right? These two things, you know, the God of Argentina becomes president and Argentina reclaims the Faullands from the British. And I'm I apologize to you as as a British citizen. >> It's okay. I like Missy. Um, you you also mentioned to me that you think Japan is going to go to war with China. Well, China is going to go to war with Japan. >> Yes. >> What makes you think that? >> Well, because every Chinese believes this. [laughter] >> Yes. So, it's the funniest thing, but like for the longest time, people believe that China will eventually invade Taiwan. This is what's very commonly accepted in the West. But if you actually go to China, no Chinese actually believes this and no Taiwanese actually believes this because um this is not the way that China actually goes about its foreign policy. It does not go and invade other countries or in its most recent history it has not been that aggressive. The last war that China fought was in Vietnam. This was was in the mid early 80s. Okay, so this is a long time. [gasps] But if you go to China today, everyone believes that China and Japan will go to war. And to appreciate this, you have to understand the geography of Southeast Asia. >> Should you try to throw something up on the screen? >> Yeah. Okay. So, what I want to do is use geography to explain why conflict between China and Japan is inevitable at this point. Okay. So you have Japan, okay? And you have China. Okay. So the first thing to appreciate is that these are two very different countries. China is a land power that is self-sufficient. Japan is a sea power that is dependent on resources from abroad. So historically, China was primarily an agricultural nation. Japan in order to survive engage in piracy. So the Japanese have always been pretty militaristic. They have a very they had a cyber culture for the longest time. They were always at war with each other. Um and the Japanese people are extremely resilient and cohesive because the geography of Japan is very unstable. There's lots of earthquakes. There's lot tsunamis. So they have to work together as a people in order to survive. This is important because this war in Iran is affecting both China and Japan. China will probably have to de-industrialize. But if Japan doesn't do anything, then it's possible in the next 50 years Japan cease to exist. Because not only is Japan dependent on energy and imports and resources from overseas, but has an aging population, it has the most elderly population in the world. So in a time of war, when the United States is no longer able to give you protection, Japan needs to create resource colonies. And historically, Southeast Asia right here has been the main resource colony of Japan. If it doesn't have Southeast Asia, the United States now becomes the main benefactor of Japan. And Japan doesn't want to be in that position because that's what happened in World War II when uh Japan got most of its energy from the United States. And when the United States embargoled Japan, Japan was forced to declare war on the United States. Okay? Okay. So, United States can provide Japan with all its energy needs, but that would make Japan completely subservient. So, Japan wants to basically access the resources of Southeast Asia. There's a problem though, and that problem is called Taiwan. Taiwan is right in the middle of the South China Sea. And if China and Taiwan were to reunify, what China couldn't do now is embargo Japan. I'm not saying China will do so, but I'm saying that China has the option of doing so. And that's and Japan sees that as a threat to it existence. In fact, um a few >> say embargo. What does embargo mean? >> Embargo means you blockade. Okay. >> But if they did this, wouldn't the whole hell would break loose? You know, Japan are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's going to get messy. It's going to impact. I'm not saying that China would embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the option of doing so. >> But you are saying that China is going to attack Japan. >> No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a conflict between between these two nations. >> Okay. I thought you said it was inevitable. >> Yes. So, so let me explain how how this would draw, how this will play out. Okay. So, Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue as vital to its national security interest. And that's what exactly what Prime Minister Taki said a few months ago. And when she made that statement, China overreacted. So before you had millions of tourists from China visiting Japan a year. Now most of them are not allowed to go to Japan. And it's very likely that China and Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan. Now the thing to remember is it does not benefit any nation here to a war because as you point out all chaos would break out. What you need to do is create leverage to negotiate better terms. Okay. So what Japan is doing is saying okay look we can't take on China directly because China is too powerful but what what we can do is build alliances to possibly challenge and if we have to embargo China right so what Japan is doing is build alliance with the Philippines and Australia and India and together these four nations even without the United States they could in theory choose to embargo China right what Japan needs is access to Southeast Asia because that will be the main source of its resources going into the future so that is the scenario being played out now China does not want to come into a conflict with Japan why because China is seen as the big bad dragon in this area and if China is seen as too provocative that would basically incentivize all of Southeast Asia to gang up on China. So you can see alliance between India, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China. Okay. So the way to resolve this issue is to use a proxy in order to threaten Japan in order to uh develop more leverage over Japan in negotiations, >> right? And that proxy of course is North Korea. So, North Korea has the potential to shell South Korea because most of the population of South Korea lives within 20 minutes of North Korea. And so, in theory, North Korea could flatten Soul in just a day. Okay. Most of North Korean artillery is actually by the border. What North Korea could also do is lobby missiles into the Sea of Japan and rattle the Japanese. Okay, so this is the dynamic being played out where Japan through its proxies primarily Philippines is challenging Chinese naval dominance in the South China Sea and China will use North Korea as a proxy to threaten South Korea and Japan. Over time, as the United States retreats from uh the Asia-Pacific, this conflict between China and Japan will get worse and worse. And the reason main reason why is it is in the strategic best interest of the United States to ferment as much tension between China and Japan as possible. >> But it could compromise Taiwan. No, >> who cares? >> The US care about Taiwan? >> No, it doesn't. I thought that's who we get all of our semiconductors from. >> But what does Trump want to do? He wants the Taiwanese to move their semiconductor industry to the United States. And that's already happening where TSMC, the main semiconductor u company in Taiwan, is open a I believe it's 2020 20 billion new factory in Arizona. So if there's a conflict between China and Japan, the the tension becomes worse and worse, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, it would be forced to relocate the United States, would be in the best interests of the Americans. >> You also think that um Russia are going to invade the Baltics. >> Yeah. Okay. So now we'll shift focus and go into Europe. All right. Okay. But but is this pretty clear? >> Yes, it is clear. >> Okay. Right now you have NATO or Europe supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. Okay. And most of this war is actually happening in eastern Ukraine. And Russia seems to be winning a lot of territory in eastern Ukraine. But everybody's saying that Ukraine are fighting back really really well. >> The reason why is what Ukraine has chosen to do in these past few months which has which has changed the contours of the war is Ukraine is using drones to attack Russia's energy infrastructure >> and just hitting Russia in general is making the people of Russia change their perception. >> Exactly. Right. So before this conflict was contained to eastern Ukraine, it didn't affect the people of Russia. In fact, it really was helping the economy of Russia because Russia could still export its oil around the world. Now, Ukraine, what Ukraine is doing is using drones to attack the war refineries of Russia, which is causing economic pain on the Russian people and this is making uh Putin increasingly unpopular. Okay? So, the contour of the war has changed. So if you're Russia and you're looking at this, you think your enemy is not Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO Europe. Why? Because Ukraine the drones are being manufactured in Germany and the UK and other places as well. So in theory, Ukraine could fight this war to infinity because its manufacturing hub is in Europe. Europe is is is also providing Ukraine with infinite financing as well as intelligence. Okay. So, if you're Russia, you're like, "Wait a minute here. Over time, we can't possibly win this war of attrition because we're funding Europe and Europe's manufacturing capacity is well protected behind the NATO alliance." Okay. So what I need to do is provoke NATO and Europe into coming into Ukraine. Basically force them out of their shell shell, right? And so what's been happening is Germany and Russia have been in conflict these past few months. In early August, there's a drone attack on Libig airport. Okay, Libig airport. and the Germans blamed the Russians and in response the Germans closed down the Russ Russian consulate in Bond as well as remove certain Russians from uh Germany. Russia is retaliating by closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg and the Russian foreign minister S Lav have have said we are in a similar situation to 1941. What happened in 1941? the Germans invaded Russia. Okay, so in other words, Russia recognizes that if they just leave Europe alone and just fight this war in Ukraine, they will lose in the end, so they must force and provoke Europe into mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And one way to do that is by hitting critical manufacturing infrastructure within Europe. Do you think Russia Russia's next move is to attack within NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.? >> It has no choice. It It has to do this. >> Can't it just do a deal with Trump? Like, you know, they're trying to do a deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared Kushner is apparently trying to get a deal done between Ukraine and Russia. And so, if the United States, do you want peace between Europe and Russia, or do you want war between Europe and Russia? Well, from a gameplay perspective, you're better off with war. Why? Because if there's war, Russia can't sell it energy overseas. United States has monopoly over energy now, right? >> This causes global instability, though. If there's a war here, then it's going to impact the US in a big way. >> Well, then why the United States invade Iran, right? Because they thought it would be an overnight Venezuela situation where you decapitate the leadership, everyone rises up, you have a favorable leader in the country that you is subservient to you. >> Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how the empire thinks, right? We already used this formula, right? Yeah. >> Now, if we apply this formula to Europe situation, then the thinking is, well, Putin is a paper tiger. He is very unpopular at home. If we just force this war for another two months, if we continue to attack the energy infrastructure of Russia, then eventually people will rise up and overthrow Putin. Right? The same logic. >> So therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to win or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what they're doing. >> Well, Trump personally doesn't care, right? Because the more war there is, the more the Europeans are forced to rely on American energy. >> Okay? >> So, if you're Putin, what you need to do is force the Europeans into war in Ukraine. Why? Because there's only really only one path to victory in this scenario. The path of victory is to cause instability and violence in Europe. Okay. The idea is if you force Europe to mass mobilize, the people would rather overthrow the government than agree to take up arms against Russia. That's a theory. Okay. But Russia has exactly one path to victory and that is to cause as much instability and violence as possible within Europe. The best way to do that is by forcing the Europeans to mass mobilize their population. Okay? But for that to happen, what Russia needs to do first is declare total war. What total war means is the mass mobilization of your society. So what's important for us to appreciate is so far Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. It is a special military operation which means that Russia is relying on volunteers to fight this war. In a time of total war, Russia could mobilize its ADA population. And we estimate there are at least three million reser in Russia ready to be called up to arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would force mass mobilization in Europe. And this is how the war is most likely uh will most likely turn out. I mean I guess the other thing that's I mean listen professor there's a sounds like there's a lot of conflict on the way >> there's an acceleration underway >> what would have to be true for us to sit here in 2036 and for there not to have been a conflict between China and Japan for the uh Iran situation to have cooled off the Ukraine war is either you know where it is now or it's uh regressed the clean memo that's changed history. >> So what what are you saying spec specifically? What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place? >> Okay, in the year 1995, okay, this was published in 1996. Now Yahoo came in power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we lived in a world of neoliberalism, something called Washington Census. And the idea is we have developed a new model of history. If people just traded with each other and consumers just bought goods, we would have peace forever. Okay, this is what we call neoliberalism, Washington consensus. And Bill Clinton was the main proponent of this idea. And in order to achieve this vision for global peace, what he did was promote the Oslo peace process which sought to create a two-state solution and bring peace in the Middle East. Right? The two-state solution is the Palestinians and the Israelis agreed to live side by side. And at that time the main thinking was that once peace happened in the Middle East once a two-state solution was created then they would start to trade with each other. Israel and Palestine be brought into the GCC and they would be part of the global supply chain and once prosperity comes to Israel and Palestine they would have no need to ever hate each other again. This is called the also peace process. Okay. And again at that time this was just how policymakers in Washington understood the world right? It worked in China. It worked in Japan. It worked in Germany. The Japan and Germany were these really militant nation states. But then we allowed them to trade. We allowed their consumers to have air conditioning SUVs and now they're just really peaceful people. So why can't we do the same thing in Israel and Palestine? So what is the clean break theory? What? What in a sentence? >> The clean brick theory is this. Netanyahu came into power and basically his argument is we can never ever trust the Arabs not to hate us. We are Israelis. We have been promised this land by God. And the Arabs see us as enemies. And whatever we do, they will always hate us. So screw peace, screw compromise. Let us become the regional hedgemon because that is our manifest destiny. That is what God told us to do. That is what is written in the Bible. And that's what we were born to do. Okay? And this is something called the clean brick memo. And the clean brick memo had three major pillars that have that have all been achieved today. Okay? The first pillar is stop the also peace process. Do not give more land to the Palestinians because the Palestinians are animals and the way to treat animals is by beating the crap out of them. Okay. Do not treat them nicely. They will um they will hate you. >> So wait, are you saying that the way to stop all of the pessimism that we talked about happening is by the clean break theory succeeding? >> No. No, no, no. What I said was in 1995 there was already a theory in place called neol liberalism that offered a solution to the Israel Palestine issue that has been plaguing the Middle East for the past few decades. And if they had follow that through then we live in a very different time. >> Okay. So to to my question my question is and what would have to be the case for this all the things you've described the the the wars and the conflict not to happen. >> Right. What would have happened is the United States had pressured Israel into seeking peace with the Arab nations. >> Okay. So the US need to get Israel to be friends with the Arab nations. >> Yes. You force it because Israel simply dependent on you for technology, for financing, for arms. Israel is the biggest recipient of American foreign policy uh aid. So, just for those that want to know what the clean break theory is, it was it's called a clean break, a new strategy for securing the realm. It refers to a prominent 1996 policy documented um and then prepared for Benjamin Netanyahu by a study group led by American neoonservative strategists. Um did he read this me memo? >> He commissioned it. >> He commissioned it. Okay. And the key objectives of the clean break are, as you said, the first one, abandoning land for peace, which advocated for moving away from the Oslo Accords framework, shifting to a posture of peace through strength and peace for peace without giving up any territory. Number two, regional dominance. It recommended transcending the Israel Palestine conflict by focusing on weakening regional adversaries, specifically advocating for the containment or removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and Syria, and dismantling the Iraq Syria Hezbollah access. And lastly, preemptive action. It urged Israel to abandon defensive containment policies in favor of proactive offensive strategies. And that's exactly what Israel is doing today. This is what Israel has done for the past 30 years. It has promoted regime change in Syria, in Iraq. >> And so the conclusion here is to stop this sort of conflict escalating, they have to reverse course with this strategy. >> The US needs to contain Israel. Yes. Okay. But what I'm arguing is it's too late because you you've already unleashed these structural forces that will collapse the global trade system. In which case, it's every nation for itself. I mean, you you've already created the conditions for Japan and China to go to war. You've already created conditions for Germany and Russia to go to war. It's no longer you can't put the gene back back in the bottle again. >> What does this mean? you know, a lot of mo most of us aren't involved in politics. So, um, we just kind of watch this stuff and we have to sort of figure out what to do with our our families and our lives in spite of this sort of craziness that we see in the news and the global conflict and all that stuff. What is the advice that you have for the average person? >> The best advice I can give to the average person is believe in God. So, I am a product of the meritocracy. I received the best education in the world and I feel the best education in the world makes you think the world is materialistic. God doesn't exist. And as a result, in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I was a deeply angry, depressed, frustrated person because if God doesn't exist, there's no order and structure to what's going on and it's just complete chaos and there can be no hope or light in chaos. And because I married a wonderful woman who I think is really an angel, because I have like three beautiful children, I do believe there's a plan and a structure and order and reason to the world. And I've come in the past two years, and it's only been recent, okay? It's only been the past two years when I have a true belief in God. >> So, it's all going to be okay. Yes. Great. Yes. But you need to believe in God and you need to focus on your family. Then it will be all right. >> So don't focus on protesting in the streets or elections or any of those things. If you believe in God and you focus on your family, sometimes you're compelled to take action. Because I believe in God, I live a life following one simple principle, which is speak the truth. Why am I on your show? Why did I spend the past month um going on so many different podcasts? Because it's important people know the truth. If you really believe in God, if you really focus on your family, you have a personal and moral responsibility to speak the truth. If you know what's going to happen, then speak it. Why are you doing this? What good will do? It doesn't matter. It's just like your faith in God compels you to live the truth to and to speak the truth and to spread the the truth. So just because you believe in God doesn't mean okay now I believe in God and now I can just sit back and hide in my room and play computer games all day doesn't mean that. It means if you truly believe in God and you believe there's a plan then you have to take action and you have to participate in the world because why else would God create you? So why is God letting all of this stuff happen? When I look around the world I see lots of wars and conflict. Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other things breaking out at the moment. Why would God let this happen? >> What is the path to wisdom? >> Struggle, pain, failure. >> Yeah. >> Can we just have the wisdom without them? >> Well, or could you? [laughter] [snorts] >> So, we've got a lesson to learn. >> We have many lessons to learn. But if you are truly a spiritual person, you're thankful for this time because this struggle, this suffering will allow us to transcend ourselves. Where are we here to make a lot of money and drive fast cars? Are we here to learn what it means to be truly human? To learn what love is? To develop a deeper connection with God? I mean, I think we're here first and foremost to be truly human. And that means living a life of love, empathy, and imagination. And so, we go back to that formula where if you have too much wealth, you have too much fame, you have too much power, it's impossible for you to truly have imagination, empathy, and love. So, how do you correct this? Will you create a world of crisis? Because in a world of crisis, everyone, you and me, we're forced to look deep down and ask ourselves, what is truly important to me? What gives me happiness? What is meaning and purpose in my life? And I think the answer is it's my love for the people around me. And that's the answer that we will all come to. And once we come to this um answer, then I think that is the great spiritual awakening that could possibly redeem all of humanity. >> Professor, what's the most um pertinent thing that's front of mind for you at the moment that we haven't talked about? >> Well, I mean, we did talk about the coming conflict between China and Japan, and I worry a lot about that. >> What about AI? We didn't talk about that and that's kind of overlaid on all of the stories we've talked about because it's to do with robotics, it's energy, it's semiconductors, chips, it's US, China. Yeah. So that's a great question. Um and so if we go back and talk about global supply chains, this formula is very important to understand. Technology equals specialization times globalization. So in a time when global supply chains are breaking down in time of war AI cannot make that leap into AGI. So what will happen is AI will be repurposed as a control grid rather than AI developing the intelligence necessary to reduce scarcity to solve the most pressing medical problems of humanity. uh to solve climate change. AI will be re repurposed to monitor and surveil all of us. >> I think that's going to happen irrespective of, you know, I think governments are going to be increasingly interested in and capable of monitoring all of us all the time cuz we have cameras. We're here in New York City at the moment. There's cameras everywhere. They're just a little bit dumb. They don't really talk to each other. >> Yep. And >> with AI, they can all talk to each other. professor's walking down the street and he's off his way to this hotel and now he's in a hotel and >> I agree that is the most likely trend. But what I'm saying is all these crises will accelerate this trend because let's just say you have a siege of New York City. Well, Palunteer will use this opportunity develop um autonomous drone warfare that is controlled by AI. >> So is that your big concern with AI? Is it surveillance? >> That's not the big risk I see. The big risk I see is how AI can cheapen the human experience. How AI is almost dehumanizing because what people like Ellen Mus and Peter Theo and Soman are saying is computers are so much smarter than us. And it could be true that AI will eventually be able to do mathematics, do medical diagnostics much more efficiently than we are. But ultimately, we as humans, we're here to love, imagine, and have and be kind to other people. And that is what the human experience is. And if we focus too much on AI, that diverts and distracts us from our true mission, which is one of spiritual growth. Our true mission is spiritual growth. What do you um what gives you hope? Well, the only thing that gives me hope um um are my children, right? you met Chris, but I'm here because of Chris. Honestly, if I didn't have children, first of all, I don't think I would be this successful because I wouldn't have much purpose and meaning in my life. But honestly, at the same time, I think that while children and I were suddenly this famous, I would become very corrupted very fast. I would just focus on the fame. I would try to make as much money as possible because while children the only purpose in life is competition against others, right? To prove that I am materally more successful than other people. And so I would just try to to uh make as much money as possible for myself in my 50 minutes of fame. But now that I have children, I'm more much more concerned about building a legacy for them and setting a good example. >> Are you worried about Chris's future? >> I'm not. You know, >> I'm not all worried about his future. >> Why? >> Because my wife and I have loved him to the best of our ability. And the fact that we love him gives him the confidence to live his life to the fullest. We see every day Chris as a gift from God. >> But if the world is collapsing in your words, and Chris is in that world, >> Yeah. >> are you not concerned? >> I'm not at all concerned. Because we are here in order to have a spiritual awakening and all the crises they will induce deep reflection in order for us to fulfill our purpose. I don't know why Chris is here. When Chris was 2 years old, he literally told us, "Mom, dad, I'm from a I'm I'm from another world." And he named that world and I'm just an alien visiting you guys. And my wife and I, we weren't surprised. We're like, "We knew this." Yeah. We knew you were an alien. We We knew you came from from another world. And we knew that you came here to experience humanity for all our faults and all for all our problems. And we see you. We love you, but we will do whatever we can to empower you on your mission. And we going to try our best because ultimately it's your life. It's your mission. And we cannot ever control you. Love is about trust. Love is about liberation. Liberation from your own anxieties and liberation from the need to control others. Professor, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next not knowing who they're leaving it for. The question left for you is, what is your biggest challenge and how are you working on fixing it? My biggest challenge is my fear, my doubt, my paralysis. I went to um the US border yesterday and now I'm afraid that I will never be allowed back in the United States after I I leave. I'm afraid that I might get banned from a lot of countries because all I do is talk trash about different countries. I've talked trash talk trash about China. I've talked trash about Canada. I've talked trash about the United States. If I got banned from all three countries, I'd be in a lot of trouble. And so, my constant challenge is to maintain my faith in God, maintain my faith in my family, maintain uh my faith in in my purpose. >> I hope you do. And you have a wonderful son. He's so He's so um curious is the vibe that I got from him. >> He's a gift from God. >> Very very curious. I just met him in the green room then and he was like he's playing with some Play-Doh and lots of toys and stuff like that and I'm not surprised that he is your son from the 15 seconds I spent with him [laughter] cuz he's very very curious and clearly going to be a very smart young man. So congratulations. Thank you. >> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you you might love it.