The Government Is Hiding Something Much Worse Than Epstein — Former CIA Spy Explains
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
Former CIA operative Andrew Bustamante argues that recent government silence regarding high-profile events like the assassination of Charlie Kirk, attempts on Donald Trump's life, and the Epstein files stems not from nefarious cover-ups but rather from bureaucratic incompetence and strict adherence to checks and balances. He points out significant procedural errors in the FBI investigation into Charlie Kirk's death, such as releasing details before state police or misidentifying a volunteer suspect as an apprehended criminal, which he attributes to Director Kash Patel lacking traditional government training. Bustamante explains that while Trump has pushed for transparency regarding Epstein files, the judicial branch controls these documents and will likely release only redacted versions to subcommittees rather than the public, protecting ongoing investigations involving other "bad guys" who were used as covert informants (CIs) against more dangerous targets like world leaders. The discussion shifts to analyzing recent violent crimes, where Bustamante distinguishes between amateur operations requiring luck and professional interventions; he characterizes both the killing of Brian Thompson by Luigi Mangione and Charlie Kirk's assassination attempt as premeditated but ultimately amateur efforts likely executed alone without foreign government support. Addressing conspiracy theories fueled by figures like Candace Owens, Bustamante introduces "Occam's Razor" and "Hanlon's Razor," suggesting that human brains crave closed loops of information to feel safe, leading them to invent conspiracies when faced with an absence of immediate data. He advises listeners to differentiate between objective facts verified by multiple independent sources—such as signals intelligence (SIGINT)—and subjective narratives based on emotion or single-source reporting, warning against the "circular reporting" common in conspiracy circles where all new information traces back to one original claimant. A significant portion of the conversation addresses geopolitical tensions with China and its implications for Taiwan. Bustamante asserts that while a military takeover is possible, it is more probable that Beijing will achieve reunification administratively by changing laws and creating administrative bridges similar to their handling of Hong Kong in 2019, potentially before Xi Jinping's promised deadline around 2027. He notes the current split government within Taiwan itself, where pro-reunification parties hold parliamentary majorities despite a pro-independence prime minister, complicating U.S. intervention strategies. Furthermore, he warns that China is leveraging its dominance in rare earth minerals and technology to force American dependence, creating a scenario where the U.S. might hesitate to fight for Taiwan due to economic leverage rather than military capability alone. Finally, Bustamante delivers a stark warning about the trajectory of the United States' economy over the next 10 to 15 years without significant structural changes. He describes current government policies as inflationary mechanisms that artificially inflate asset values for the wealthy while squeezing the middle class through currency devaluation and subsidies that push the nation toward an economic cliff. Using a metaphor from the TV show *Dexter*, he argues that waiting passively will result in a catastrophic fall, whereas voluntarily accepting a "beautiful deleveraging"—a painful but necessary reset of debts and values—could allow for recovery. He concludes by urging Americans to understand these macroeconomic forces, invest wisely rather than keeping cash under mattresses, and recognize the utility of government secrecy in national security matters before societal trust erodes further into fear-based anger against convenient scapegoats.
Read the full video transcript
As a former CIA operative, what do you
read into the fact that the FBI is being
so silent about the attempted
assassination of Trump, the
assassination of Charlie Kirk, and the
Epstein files? The FBI is leaning into
the way our government is divided.
Meaning how it's actually divided by the
by our founding fathers, the legislative
branch, the executive branch, the
judicial branch. FBI falls under the
judicial branch. The president falls
under the executive branch, and of
course Congress, the house all falls
under the legislative branch. So, the
three branches of government are built
to keep each other's in check. But,
they're also built to kind of protect
their own
um vertical, their own duties. So, I
think FBI understands there's certain
duties that they have that are defined
by their role in government, and it
doesn't matter what the house or the
president has to say, those duties can't
be messed with. But, then you also have
this layer where Kash Patel was put in
place by Donald Trump, the executive.
So, you already have some of this
cross-pollination that's unique.
And it's it's unclear what it all means.
Like, do we hear Trump talking about the
Epstein files
because he knows that the judicial
branch isn't going to release anything?
Is he letting this whole thing play out
in in the House of Representatives
because he knows that no matter how many
votes happen in the house or the Senate,
at the end of the day the judicial
branch is going to be who determines
what gets shared, what gets redacted,
what gets kept and held back?
And in all of those scenarios, Donald
Trump has done what he can do to have
the Epstein files released. And he knows
that that the assassination attempts,
the assassination of Charlie Kirk, like
these all blend between branches of
government and along with the checks and
balances also comes a certain amount of
of distancing of responsibility. But,
Kash like went out of his way to say
we're going to be super transparent, we
know how important this is to the
American people, and then we've gotten
anything but. So, certainly I as a
commentator on the internet start
speculating like crazy.
Um
uh what do you read into that behavior
from
like are they are there signs that
they're hiding something? Are there
signs that they're just running a good
investigation? Like, what do you see the
signs being?
>> The signs for sure there's there's lots
of things being hidden. But, the things
that are being hidden aren't necessarily
nefarious. A lot of what's hidden in
government is actually incompetence. And
that's not something comforting to know,
but it's the truth.
>> But, do you actually see signs of
incompetence in this investigation?
>> absolutely. Like, you see you see Kash
Patel and FBI coming out and releasing
details about arrests before the actual
state police who have made the arrest
are willing to share the same details.
You saw that very early on with the with
the first announcement that they had
apprehended a suspect in the Charlie
Kirk killing. When in fact, what they
had was a an old man who said it was me
with no evidence, no proof. That did
that was not a suspect, that was a
volunteer. But, you saw it go out on on
official channels, you saw it go out on
social media. So, you see these updates
that are coming out at the speed of
social media because Kash Patel is used
to working at the speed of social media.
He's not used to working at the speed of
government. And that has created all
sorts of questions about whether or not
he's fit for the role. And then that
bleeds into whether or not FBI is up to
snuff to do their job, and you can just
see how it it snowballs out of control
from there.
>> So, do you think then that he just
popped off too early and now he's
realizing I got to keep my mouth shut
until we really know what's going on?
>> in that instance, he learned an
important lesson about talking too fast,
talking too early, and the importance of
of vocabulary, right? Government people
who are brought up and raised in
government, when you've been a police
officer, when you've been an FBI agent,
and then you're appointed as the
director of FBI, you already know this
stuff because you spent all of your
formative career building this this
vocabulary for both dodging
responsibility, but also for for
denoting responsibility. And then you
have somebody who's appointed to the
role who does not have that upbringing,
and now it's very easy for them to use
the wrong term in the wrong context, and
that's what we jump on. Unfortunately, I
think most of what media jumps on these
days is vernacular. They're jumping on
words and word usage, not thinking about
the intention behind the words. Kash
Patel was just trying to comfort the
American public and say, "Hey, FBI is
doing their job. We already have people
of interest that we're looking into."
But, that's not the terminology he used.
That's the terminology we're accustomed
to, that's not the terminology he used.
And now that puts the president in a
place where he has to think whether or
not punitive action is required for his
FBI director. And there's and that's
just one case that we're all aware of.
There are hundreds of cases that FBI is
working through all the time that
they're communicating up to the White
House and back again. So, what's what do
all of those cases look like? And and
what's the communication look like
between the White House and FBI
day-to-day? And how is it different from
what it looked like when the whole world
saw it with the killing of Charlie Kirk?
Would you have expected more information
to come out by this point?
>> In effective professional government,
the public is the last to know.
And that's how it's supposed to be. We
are supposed to be focused on
making it through our everyday life.
We're supposed to feel safe, we're
supposed to feel comforted, we're
supposed to feel secure enough that we
focus our energy on our productivity.
That's what we're supposed to do. That's
how our country was designed. But, now
there's so much distrust in government.
Not just distrust that the government's
working in our best interest, but also
distrust that the government's even
competent. There's so much distrust,
we're actually reducing our productivity
because we feel like we have to watch
our own back. We feel like we can't
necessarily trust the police, we feel
like maybe we can't trust our schools to
educate our children or even keep our
children safe. We feel like we can't
trust our neighbor because now the most
violent criminals are turning out to be
middle-class white boys. So, like
there's all this stuff that's splitting
our attention, it keeps us from doing
the one thing we're supposed to be able
to do, which is contribute to the
economy. Going back to you looking at
this as an outsider who has been trained
on picking up on cues that other people
might not see,
uh does it seem plausible that in the
case of Charlie Kirk's assassin that he
acted alone, or do you see something
more coordinated? You know, of all of
the of all of the public
killings, and I mean assassination
attempts I'll I'll include in that that
we've seen uh today, right? And you've
got two assassination attempts on the
president, you have the killing of the
United Healthcare CEO, um Brian Thompson
in December of last year. You have the
killing of Charlie Kirk this year. In
each of those instances,
you you can start to with a trained eye,
you can start to see how the
premeditated efforts were executed. And
some of them required
seemingly required professional
intervention, and others were completely
amateur. The killing of Brian Thompson
was a textbook amateur operation. Right?
The guy was cased by a single
individual, Luigi Mangione, who then
found him in a a moment of vulnerability
that's a mix of luck and planning, and
then killed him in plain sight in front
of cameras and the doorstep of his
hotel.
That's very amateur. But, he had he
still showed some very intelligent
premeditated movements to try to get off
the X and cover his tracks, and it was
just luck that he was captured in a
McDonald's having french fries after
flirting with a waitress or whatever the
story is, right? The same thing is true,
I feel, with Charlie Kirk. The the
killer for Charlie Kirk shows very
strong amateur tendencies. Premeditated,
but amateur tendencies. And that lends
itself to believe that he's most likely
operating alone in his intent to kill.
Does that mean that he wasn't um
collaborating or sharing his plans with
other people? Maybe, but I don't I don't
get the sense from what I've seen of the
evidence that he was supported
externally by foreign governments or by
um by rogue elements inside our own
country. He just it the evidence points
to an individual who made a plan and
executed that plan premeditatedly on a
soft target. Candace Owens would beg to
disagree.
Uh what do you take in her breakdown of
all of this? Like, to me this is a
fascinating
thing that we're living through right
now. We have this massive velocity and
volume of information. Rightly, there's
nobody trying to censor us, so people
are able to say what they think. Um some
people may think that she's a nefarious
actor, that certainly is not what I read
into it. Uh I don't think that she's
right. I think that she has a bent
towards the conspiratorial.
Um but, anybody's able to say what they
believe, and so you're getting a lot of
narratives that are running wild, you're
getting citizen journalism or podcaster
journalism. I don't know what they call
that
new thing.
Uh but, yeah, what do you what do you um
see in the way that Candace is putting
pieces together? So, I'm not I'm not
very familiar with Candace's argument
overall, but here's what I will say
about Israel.
>> Oh my gosh.
>> I'll just simplify it for you.
>> I mean, if that's the end conclusion, I
I would I would love to poke holes in
the entire process. Either way,
there's a there's a very clear and
predictable anatomy to conspiracy, which
explains why conspiracy happens.
Conspiracy has always happened. The the
theory of a planned
coordinated lie has been around as long
as the United States and beyond.
And it happens anytime there's a factual
event that's immediately followed by an
absence of information. Anytime those
two things happen, a factual event
followed by an absence of information,
it just invites conspiracy because the
human brain does not like an open loop.
It does not like to not have a
conclusion, it doesn't like to not know
the answer, it doesn't like to accept um
having to wait wait for a conclusion,
wait for a resolution, wait for more
information. Our brains don't like that.
Our brains like very clear, very closed,
very consistent loops. It keeps us
happy, it keeps us satisfied, it keeps
us feeling safe and secure.
So, here with Charlie Kirk, like with
mo- with any major criminal incident,
there's going to be a long absence of
information because the in order for our
legal system to prosecute, it has to go
through a process of building a case.
And if if that case building process is
is um undermined with with people
reaching in and knowing about
information and evidence before it can
be presented to the court, then it makes
it harder to build the case, which makes
it harder for us to actually find the
justice that we are promising, not only
for the victims, but also for the
criminals who are also protected under
law as a US citizen.
So, we have to accept that if we want
our system to work the way that we all
want our system to work, we have to give
space for the courts to collect the
information in secret that they need to
collect. Otherwise, we're actually
undermining the evidence trail because
we demand the need to know.
And that leads that that gap of
information leads to some incredible
conspiracies and conspiracy theories
that float around, completely
unsubstantiated.
And you can make anything coincidental
or anything um
uh accidental sound like it's
intentional until you kind of vet it
through an analytical process that most
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And now, let's get back to the show.
All right. So, if you were going to
build a
um
module into Everyday Spy and you were
going to teach people how not to fall
prey to conspiracy theory,
but we
are in a vacuum. Like, we we have this
dearth of information. Like, really use
Charlie Kirk's assassin. We don't know.
The FBI promised to tell us things, but
they're not telling us things. So, if
you were going to teach me how to deal
in this moment, even if it's just a sit
comfortably with uncertainty, how would
you walk me through it? How would you
help me dissect, I get you don't know
the specifics, but how would you help me
dissect somebody like Candace who makes
like she comes with, I'll say,
coincidental receipts, but nonetheless
receipts that in a John Nash sort of
way, which people know more from like uh
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia with
like all the strings. Like, she can
paint a picture of look at how all of
these things are connected.
How do you help somebody have the
defenses to know when something is
true or likely to be true and how to
debunk information from somebody who is,
let's say, both
well-meaning, intelligent, and
coming with very specific examples. So,
the answer is is kind of twofold. You
have to understand the difference
between um objective information versus
subjective information. Objective
information is information that can be
proven, that can be verified, and that
is coming from more than one source.
So, proven, if she's got receipts,
they're proven. If she's got uh you
know, samples, kind of like with 9/11,
people can show that there are certain
flight manifests that are suspicious.
They can show that there are there are
there's timing that's suspicious. Like,
those are facts. That's objective
reality. Okay, cool. So, you have facts.
That's one part of what makes something
objective. Another part of what makes it
objective is having multiple sources of
it, not just one source. Many conspiracy
theories all boil down to one person or
one location, one source that started
the theory. And then everybody else is
repeating the theory. That's called
circular reporting.
When all the new information actually
ties back to one original source. So,
you're always trying to find multiple
verifiable independent sources when
you're talking about objective
information. So, if if she's saying
certain receipts are valid, where is
somebody else independent of her
verifying the same information? How do
we know that the receipts are real? How
do we know that the receipts actually
have the connections that they have? Or
is it just suspicious? If it's just
suspicious, then it's not objective,
it's subjective. It's based on the
individual, it's based on feelings and
emotion. So, you have to understand that
there's objective and subjective
information that that makes the
overwhelming amount of information that
we're dealing with difficult to
navigate. And then second to that,
>> Does it make it difficult to navigate or
there's just such a volume of subjective
information
that you have to filter it out quickly?
>> I think of it like being in a river,
right? If anybody's ever tried to swim
in a fast river, if you've fallen off of
a white water raft into a fast river,
you know what this feels like, too.
There's an incredible volume of water
that's moving.
And it makes it hard for you not just to
stay afloat, but it also makes it hard
for you to move the direction you want
to move. So, it's actually hard to move
in the water because the flow of the
water, even if you swim arm over arm,
this water's going to overpower you. So,
many times you have to learn how to
navigate in that much volume of water.
In a white water situation, when you
fall into the water, you're actually not
supposed to try to swim upstream. You're
supposed to turn around and let the
water carry you, and then you just push
yourself left or right, and then the
water will eventually carry you to one
shore or the other. And because of the
volume of water. You do the same the
same amount of water with no flow in
like a pool or a lake, and you can swim
anywhere you want. So, that's how I see
information in our world right now.
We're in this this just tidal wave of
information, subjective and objective,
factual and feelings-based.
And if you try to fight it,
it's going to continue to just choke
you. There's a certain element that you
have to weave your way into it to move
where you want to move, or else you're
not going to get where you need to go.
So, that's when I talk about navigating,
I mean the word like controlling
yourself, going where you want to go,
whether it's towards the facts or
whether it's towards the fabrication.
Like, people choose where they want to
go in a lot of this stuff. Okay. So,
we've got this massive torrent.
Uh we are though right now teaching the
course on how to figure out what is real
and what is not. So, we've got
objective, subjective. So, we try to
find things that are corroborated by
multiple people that are establishing a
simple thing that this happened, and we
see it from multiple angles. Then the
second thing that you need is some sort
of index that you can use to to
um compare the probability of
information
against the reliability of the source.
So, probability and and reliability are
very important when it comes to
analytical rigor around the information
or around the conclusion that you're
trying to to arrive at. If something is
coming from a highly reliable source,
but it's very unpredic- like, it's um
it's improbable, right? A a very trusted
source says that
Russia's going to drop a bomb in New
York City.
That is a difficult thing to to analyze.
Whereas an a low reliability source
saying the same thing is much easier to
put at a lower probability.
Similarly, when you have a high reliable
source saying something that's also high
probability, something that's that's
highly likely. So, if the if it's a
Russian
nuclear missile general saying that I
received orders to launch a missile on
New York City, now all of a sudden,
that's a very reliable source, and if
you have SIGINT that says that the
Russians are targeting New York City,
now you have something that's also very
likely. So, it's
>> SIGINT significant intel or something
like that?
>> SIGINT is signals intelligence. So, you
have a verified secondary source,
SIGINT, that matches the human
intelligence source, the general, that
are both saying the same thing. Now, all
of a sudden, you have a high probability
incident.
When you have single source reporting,
like we're talking about here in the
Charlie Kirk case, that immediately
reduces the probability of accuracy, the
probability of likelihood. And then,
when you have a low reliability source,
so you've got a low reliability source,
and then you have an unlikely situation
because you don't have secondary
reporting saying
that Israel's involved in any way.
So, you have this situation where in our
index, this is very unlikely and low
probability that what she's saying is
true. If there's a second independent
source that's saying the same thing,
that moves up the probability scale. Or
if there's a more reliable source, not
just a conspiracy theorist, then that
also would move up the probability
scale. But here we have
uh we have single source reporting from
a low reliability source,
that makes it less probable. Okay. One
thing that I know a lot of people that
buy into Candace, specifically, are
falling into the not falling into,
they're aligning with the very
anti-Israel sentiment of they're
controlling a lot of things behind the
scenes, maybe all the way to blackmail
on President Trump, which is why they
would read Trump as acting like somebody
towards Israel that could only possibly
be being blackmailed because it's so
unpopular with his base, but he's doing
it anyway. Um you, when I first
mentioned that was Candace's stance, you
immediately had a okay, that's
ridiculous.
What is it about your worldview that has
led you to believe the exact opposite of
what feels like the new torrent of
beliefs, which is Israel is manipulating
the world? Um yeah, how does your mental
model diverge from that? First of all,
everybody's trying to manipulate the
world. The The fact that we're focused
on Israel just kind of shows our
ignorance of the reality that
everybody's trying to shape the world.
The Chinese are trying to shape the
world, the Russians, the North Koreans,
the the Botswanians, right? You name
every country in the world is trying to
shape the world. We're all trying to
influence in in the the most beneficial
way for ourselves in our limited spheres
of influence, which some are very
limited. Some people may only be able to
influence their neighbor. Some can only
influence their family. Others can
influence entire, you know,
international markets. So, everybody's
trying to influence everybody. So, to to
single out Israel is is just juvenile.
Of course, Israel's playing a role. And
if they're playing an effective role, we
shouldn't be surprised because they have
very strong allies, they have a strong
economy, they have a uh
uh a history that has made them very
self-reliant and um
and independent. So, if they're good at
influencing,
that's then we shouldn't be surprised by
that. The United States is also very
good at this. The Russians are also very
good at this. The Chinese are also very
good at this. Why aren't people blaming
the Russians or the North Koreans for
what's going on with Charlie Kirk? That
leads to the second point, that it's
because there's an anti-Israeli
sentiment. Our country is so susceptible
to these nationalized
um biases. Do you remember when we had
Islamophobia? Do you remember when we
had Asia Asia phobia? Now we have Jew
phobia, Israel phobia, whatever you want
to call it, right? Like we we are so
susceptible to this in large part
because as a population we are so
unskilled at differentiating between
information. So, we start to think that
oh, because Israel is attacking and
killing Palestinians in Gaza,
and because the whole world has turned
against them for that decision,
they must also be villains in many other
places. And now everywhere we see
villainy, we can blame it on Israel.
That's that's not accurate. It's It's
not any more accurate than when we were
saying, "Oh, now that Al-Qaeda blew up
the two buildings the Twin Towers in New
York, everything's terrorism." That's
not really true. And for sure, what's
terrorism is not always Islamic
extremism, and what's always Islamic
extremism isn't always Al-Qaeda
specific. So, we've got to learn how to
differentiate between our feelings and
the facts that are out there. The one of
the big reasons that you heard me kind
of scoff at that is because there's
there's also an element of um that we
call blowback. Blowback in government is
is probably the the biggest concern that
we have. And that blowback can be public
blowback, but even worse than public
blowback for us is diplomatic or or
international blowback. When you make a
bad call that then becomes knowledge to
your allies and your rivals,
there's a blowback penalty that's very
real. Sometimes it means they stop
trading with you, sometimes it means
they stop sharing intelligence with you,
sometimes it means they stop cooperating
with you, they activate their own
independent cells inside your country,
whatever.
Israel does not want to risk that level
of blowback inside the United States.
They don't want to risk alienating the
United States, especially not the
conservative base of the United States.
>> You're saying by assassinating Charlie
Kirk?
>> Correct. What What would What would they
have to gain from that long-term?
Outside of the fact that we want to
accuse Israel of every villainy that's
out there right now, what would they
actually have to gain empirically? What
would they actually have to gain
substantially that wouldn't have
asymmetrical risk instead? Their fight's
not with the United States. Their fight
is with their own survival because
they're surrounded by enemies on all
sides. So, we want to look at these
through analytical laws or what we call
razors. Occam's razor is that the
simplest solution is often the correct
solution. But there's a second razor
that's called Hanlon's razor. And
Hanlon's razor says, you should not
subscribe to conspiracy that which can
be explained through um incompetence.
Meaning incompetence is more likely than
conspiracy. So, what's really more
likely? That Charlie Kirk was killed at
a public event
as a soft target because the security
wasn't up to snuff to prevent his
killing? Is that more likely? Or is it
more likely that Israel launched a
secret operation to have him killed and
was so effective at it that nobody has
been able to collect evidence to
demonstrate that except one person?
What's more likely? What's more
probable? Which one's Which one is the
one that actually meets the index of
possibility and source reliability?
Which one actually meets both conditions
of the razor? Which one actually meets
the idea of subjective and and objective
information? When you look at it
professionally, that's why it's
laughable. We will return to the show in
just a second. But first, let's talk
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And now, let's get back to the show. I'm
going to channel what they they uh would
say. So, first I'll lay my thoughts on
the table so people know when I'm uh
pushing my own beliefs versus when I'm
channeling somebody else. Uh I think
we're going to find out the kid acted
alone. I think that there is enough
internal hatred in America that you do
see left-wing, right-wing violence. I
don't think that you have to go much
further than somebody who uh becomes
radicalized by an ideology that says um
you're going to hurt people that I love,
and so I'm willing to take you out,
especially when I become the young,
disaffected, intelligent young man who
is hyper-educated and underemployed.
That's going to be a phenomenon that we
in the West are not used to dealing
with, and for a long time we just
thought we washed our hands of it with
video games and pornography, and we're
finding out that that is not true. Um
that Jordan Peterson is right, that
people have a Christ complex, and they
want something that makes them feel like
they've done they've carried their cross
and they've done something meaningful,
and even if that means um shooting a
healthcare CEO and spending the rest of
your life in jail or getting the death
penalty, or uh for your lover killing
the person that you think ideologically
is the biggest risk to their well-being.
And that people get sucked up into a
narrative, which is exactly what I think
is happening to Candace and other
people, but everybody needs a worldview,
and they're going to tell themselves a
story about the world, and when that
gets reinforced, there there is quite
literally no end to how far they will
go.
No one's going to remember Heaven's
Gate, but like people will literally
kill themselves because they think the
aliens are coming to whisk them away to
heaven. Just recently we had people that
thought that the rapture was going to
happen, and they were like giving away
all their stuff and selling their stuff.
I'm just absolutely wild uh what people
can get sucked into. So, anyway, that to
me seems the most obvious razor-enabled
outcome. We'll see.
Now, to go back to what they're
channeling, it goes something like this.
Um Israel has already proven that they
are extremely
good at putting together very
future-facing, long-term plans to get
people. Uh the pager thing I think
really
it it did two things. People had to be
like, "Damn, that's impressive." That
they were able to create a distribution
network for pagers. Like that's so wild.
Uh so, and then to kill people with such
precision in a coordinated fashion, like
very, very impressive. So, people know
that they do that, and also I think um I
don't know if it was intentional, but
there's been a lot of media around how
savvy the Mossad is. Like I forget the
Steven Spielberg movie Munich? Munich?
Where they show like, "Oh, you um killed
a bunch of our athletes, bro. Forget it.
Like we're we're going to hunt you down
one after the other."
So, there's been plenty of media around
the just relentlessness, the
ruthlessness, the um brilliant cunning
that they have displayed. So, you've got
that. So, they would say, "Well, hold on
a second. Like
we know that they do this kind of
thing." And then Charlie Kirk was killed
days after saying, "I just lost a big
Jewish donor because I'm going to have
Tucker on um and I might be turning away
from it." So, what motive does Israel
have? The motive that Israel has is that
Charlie Kirk was one of the most
effective people at turning put that
could potentially turn the youth against
Israel. We couldn't have it. We can see
he's going in the Tucker anti-Israel
direction. Nope, hard pass. Got to take
him out. So, first of all, you cannot
compare Israel's response to its ex-
existential threats like Hamas, like
Hezbollah, like Iran. You can't compare
its response and preparation for those
threats to political threats like what
they would have in the United States
from a senator, a congressperson, a
president, anybody else, a nonprofit.
You can't compare the two.
And you you certainly can't compare the
two in terms of the budget that they
will spend
and the risk, the blowback, that they
would risk in response. The pager
incident.
Hezbollah has been a existential threat
for Israel for decades.
Decades. Why did they have a plan in
place to put explosives into pagers?
Because they knew that Hezbollah and
they knew that Hamas was using pagers,
they knew the model, they had already
done the research, they knew the
distribution channel because it had been
years in the making because the threat
was persistent and always there. Now,
there's all sorts of intel operations
that sit on a shelf, right? We should we
The term shelving shelving something
actually comes from this idea of
military operations that are planned out
just in case and then shelved so that in
the event something happens like a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan, you're not
starting from scratch the day that you
find out. You can pull something off the
shelf that's 80% complete, 70% complete,
90% complete.
Mossad, in defense of the nation of
Israel, the existence of Israel. That's
an existential threat. They have plans
on the shelves that I'm sure would send
all of our heads spinning. They knew
what they were going to do in Natanz
long before they ever asked the
president to drop bombs on the Iranian
uh enrichment facility. They already
knew how to sneak across the border and
launch drones. They had all of that on
the shelf possibly for the last decade.
They just chose to execute it at a
certain time. That's what happens.
That's what makes Mossad seem so
impressive. They essentially only have a
handful of enemies. But those enemies
are existential enemies. Where the
United States
has
binders full of enemies and almost none
of those enemies are existential
enemies. So, we don't put nearly as much
money or time into planning that the
Mossad puts into their planning for a
handful of threats. So, to say that
Charlie Kirk
meets the same kind of budgetary or
existential threat
that Hezbollah or Hamas or or Iran meets
is already flawed logic. It just doesn't
happen. And then when you think about
what is the most logical way to handle
the threat of him potentially turning
the youth against Israel, is it really
better to kill the guy or is it better
to spend a year or two trying to woo him
back into your favor?
Which wouldn't seem unrealistic, right?
could you arrange a large donation?
Could you arrange even a blackmail
operation, which is completely and
totally
uh unlikely, but it would still be
easier to launch a blackmail operation
that somehow compromises him and forces
him to verbalize his support for Israel
rather than killing the guy because once
you kill the guy, you can't There's no
taking that back. The risk for blowback
is too high. So, the fact that there
that there's an argument at all that
because of what Mossad is capable of
with Hamas, therefore they must also be
capable of that with every other target
in the world
is a ludicrous argument just based on
how they prioritize their time, how they
prioritize their efforts. The other
thing that's important to talk about
here is the information warfare
landscape. It's so easy for us to
forget. We're constantly in a landscape
of information warfare. Not only is
there information, not only is there
good and bad information, but there's
also intentionally
bad information. What's called
misinformation, what's called
disinformation, and what's called
malinformation. Misinformation,
incomplete or incorrect. Disinformation,
fully patently false. And
malinformation, which is true
information spun in a negative way. All
of those are part of the landscape, too.
Why did Israel let a movie like Munich
become so popular? Why did Israel
promote and and share on social media
their incursions into Iran and the
launching of their drones? Why did they
share footage of what the what happened
whenever uh whenever the pagers went
off? Because they're shaping that
information warfare landscape. They want
the whole world
to overestimate their capabilities.
Can they do amazing things? Yes, but
could they do that against 161
independent countries?
No. They can do it against a handful of
imminent
existential threats to the homeland.
Okay, you brought up blackmail. By the
way, that was a wonderful argument. I'm
sorry. I'm That was just a diatribe.
>> That was great.
Uh because I really think this is
gaining steam and boy do I wish that
people well
I was going to say, boy do I wish that
people look at history and go, pogroms
rear their ugly head and never do we go,
I'm really glad that we killed a bunch
of Jews. We always end up going, ooh,
those were monsters.
Um but we're living through one of those
moments right now and the distressing
part has become that people go, yeah,
but why do people keep launching pogroms
on the Jews? That's the part where I'm
like, oh my god. First of all, there's
an obvious answer that when you have a
minority that is very successful
in populist moments where economics
makes people uncertain, that anxiety has
to be transmuted into anger because
anxiety feels horrible and anger feels
awesome.
My audience will have heard this too
many times to count, but
uh there was a study done, very few
people, but fascinating enough that uh
if you open somebody's skull and start
electroding their brain and you touch
all the regions for emotions and then
ask them which emotion did you enjoy the
most that you want me to press again,
they will universally say anger. So,
anger comes with certainty, it comes
with focus, it just feels good. It's an
aggressive forward-moving thing. And so,
when I hear pogroms, I'm like literally,
if you were just like flipping through
the pages of a history book and you're
like, pogrom, I'm like, they're they're
having economic problems. Guaranteed
every time, 100% of the time.
Uh because you need someone to blame.
And so, when you want to transmute the
anxiety into anger, you're like, who do
I aim my anger at? And so,
uh the right question for me around
Israel or Jews, I guess uh is what is it
in Jewish culture that makes them so
effective
that they can go into a strange land and
become very successful. Now, is it just
a focus on economics and they're just
very good with money? In which case,
learn about money. Uh I don't understand
people's bizarre reaction.
>> phenomenal book called Thou Shalt
Prosper
written by a rabbi, um a gentleman named
Rabbi Lupin.
And he goes through I 100% I recommend
this book. If you're a business owner or
if you're an entrepreneur, you must read
this book. It literally answers the
question that you just asked. What is it
about Jews Mhm. that makes it possible
for this religious um ideology to
basically go anywhere and be successful,
financially successful. I would argue
and Rabbi Lupin would argue that their
financial success is secondary.
That what they're actually successful at
first is community.
They find real needs and real
uh real opportunities to enhance the
community that they are now part of and
then they just maximize their
contribution to the community, which has
a secondary effect of maximizing cash
flow, maximizing revenue, maximizing
growth because they're servicing a need
in the community that nobody else has
previously serviced.
And then as more and more Jews kind of
come together, they also have a
religious element of supporting each
other. So then, you may not be good at
business, but you have somebody else in
the synagogue who is good at business
and then they help you to develop your
business idea. They help you to develop
your business strategy, they help you to
do your marketing, they help you to
negotiate your lease, they help you to
manage your books because that's part of
the community and then as a result, you
end up having this thriving mhm sector
of people who share a faith. Compare
that to Christians, compare that to to
Islam, compare that to Buddhism.
We don't share the same focus on
community, we don't share the same focus
on finding gaps in the existing
community. We focus Many of those
religions focus first on their own kind.
And in fact, Jews don't focus on their
own kind first. They focus on on making
the most of the environment that they're
in at that moment. They kind of assume
hardship and they try to work their way
through the hardship first. Wait, are
you saying that Jews don't focus on Jews
first? I don't According to what I've
read and according to the book that I'm
referring to you right now, that's not
the first focus. The first focus is
wherever they relocate to, the first
focus is how do I serve how do I exist
in this community?
>> Mhm. I I'm not a scholar, but I have a
worldview right now that says that they
are very insular, that they do focus on
the Jewish community first. I'll be
interested to see if that's true. I am
very open to being wrong, but when I
mentally map them, I take away like,
ooh, must remember this
uh in terms of helping each other. So,
helping people that are on your team,
however you define team, but that you
create a community, you find uh
a closed system and you say, cool, we're
all going to help each other so that we
can rise up and then also, and I don't
know if this will hold up to historical
scrutiny, but um
if they really do focus on money, that's
brilliant. And and I'm just PSA, thou
shalt listen to the the following rant.
So, uh
I learned how to make money, but I did
not know how to invest money. And the
last 6 years of my life has been
basically about learning the economy.
And when I say everybody must learn the
economy, otherwise you will be
manipulated by your government, like
right now, the the litany of people that
have lived and died under regimes that
were manipulating them economically is
so horrifying and I see what America is
now doing and it's an organism doing it
to you. It's not like individual people.
It's just that the incentive structure
is such that uh the people that have a a
roll of the dice before we started
rolling we were talking about playing
games like D&D where you roll your
character and you give them skills and
trades based on rolls of the dice.
Humans are actually like that. So we all
have traits. The people that really
score high on the Machiavellian scale
and they really want to accumulate power
uh they are going to rise to the top and
they will learn as every empire before
them learns that oh you have to you have
to counterfeit your own currency is the
fastest way to say it. We call it money
printing or quantitative easing. We give
it fancy names, but it is literally just
counterfeiting your own currency and you
realize that it benefits the elite that
know how to invest in assets and it just
absolutely slaughters everybody else. So
every empire ever in all of history has
done the same thing and so there's just
something in the human mind to avoid
being taken advantage of by that, you
must learn how it works because once you
learn how it works it's like oh my god
the emperor really has no clothes and a
very small dick and you're just like I
know exactly what the [ __ ] is going on
right now.
And uh most people just don't learn it.
So the the way that people
go oh they do that and that's so gross.
I'm just like [ __ ] hell. Like please
for the love of God if it's that
effective will you just learn the skill?
Like instead of uh dismissing somebody
just be like oh that must be really
effective. Let me go figure that out. Uh
but that's not the moment that we're in.
The moment that we're in right now is
anybody that's good at that I'm going to
take them down. And that is really
history says this is very distressing
and you become the bad guy very fast. So
your I I love what you just said and
it's important I I think it's important
to highlight that what you just said has
a handful of powerful truths that all
need to be broken out and detailed in
order for the layperson to understand
let alone for the layperson to accept
>> Yeah. the the truth of what you just
kind of spat out, right?
Much to my dismay. Well, but it's all
it's fair. You're dedicating
a huge portion of your life to teaching
people how to do this.
>> Enjoy it while it lasts.
We're talking about that. But I
appreciate I appreciate that you're
you're making that dedication. As a
fellow teacher, I appreciate the
dedication to trying. There's so many
people who will learn the information
and they're like oh it's my information.
I have a client in in Florida. Sent some
millionaire client. No he he and I have
had the same conversations you and I you
you and I just had here. Mhm. Right?
Over bourbon, cigars at his giant uh
plantation.
Damn. And he's not sharing it. He's not
telling anybody. He's like yeah this is
the way it is. Sucks for everybody else,
but here's what I'm doing.
>> That's so wild. But that's how most
people are. That's when you understand
how the system works
there's there's a instinctive an
instinctual response in the human brain
that makes it so that you know something
somebody else doesn't know. That means
you don't share it. Dude people should
have people like that should have to not
have to. They should understand the
utility in hanging a painting of Marie
Antoinette on their wall. Mhm. I don't I
don't disagree with you. Um but the
reality is reality. So I there's two
things I want to say kind of to to close
the door
unequivocally in my opinion on the
Jewish topic, right? First
read thou shalt prosper. Go find the
book, find it on audio, find it in the
library or however you like to read.
Read the book because it was incredibly
enlightening to me as a business owner
and as a as a member of the human race
to to read and understand more about how
Jewish people think through the lens of
a rabbi talking about business. I loved
it. It was life-changing for me. I can't
not do everything I can to express
people look up that book thou shalt
prosper.
And then second
differentiating between Israel and
Judaism. It's an important distinction.
Israelis and Jews are two completely
different bodies. They might be they
might consist of many of the same people
but Israel is a nation. It is a it is an
a government that has been created with
a with an infrastructure above it. They
don't separate between church and state,
but nevertheless Israel is a government.
You have an Israeli passport. You don't
have a Jewish passport, right? Judaism
is a faith. You can be a Jew and not be
Israeli. You can be Israeli and not be a
Jew. There's all sorts of differences
between the two, but we live in a world
where we we talk and we assume so
quickly that we put the two hand in
hand. There are plenty of Jews that
don't agree with the policies of Israel.
And it's important to have that
distinction between the two because
the government of Israel can be a
ruthless government. It is proving to be
corrupt in its own ways. It is proving
to be isolating in terms of its
international policy. But that doesn't
mean that Jews as a body of faith-based
people all reflect the same ideologies
as their government does.
I think you're exactly right that when
there is economic pressure when there is
fear
people don't like the way fear feels.
They would rather feel anger. So as fear
reaches a peak, people find something to
focus their anger on. When COVID was at
its peak, we all hated the Chinese. When
World War II was at its peak, we created
concentration camps here in the United
States for Japanese that were living
inside the United States.
>> Yeah. We've ostracized everybody. I mean
if if you're if you're an Indian in the
United States, you have felt what it's
like to have people racist against you
just because you're Indian. If you're
Chinese, if you're Korean, if you're
Mexican, we all know what it's like to
have America turn against us culturally
because of some fear from somewhere else
whether it's jobs and we all now are
afraid of Mexicans or whether it's
uh whether it's fentanyl and now we're
all afraid of Colombians or whatever
else. Like it is there's all sorts of
reasons where we choose anger in the
face of fear because of how it feels.
And the Jews have been victim to that
too. The whole world knows about that
when they were victimized because they
were the target of anger in Germany
and then that it went the way it went.
So we know that that's
that we're susceptible to that. It takes
effort to work against that. It takes
effort to say hey
what else could be the root cause to the
pressure to the fear that I'm feeling
right now in our economy right now. What
else could be the real driver? Is it
that is it really a war in Venezuela
that we need?
Is it really um to shut off H1 visas to
foreigners? Is that really what we need?
Is that going to actually solve my
concern or is that just focusing my
anger and giving me a very convenient
answer to close a loop in my mind that
allows me to sleep better at night so I
can focus back on my productivity. Mhm.
All right. Speaking of blackmail and
open loops, uh Epstein.
You've put a very interesting idea out
that he looks far more like an FBI
intel agent CIA. I was like I see. Uh
walk me through that because this one
gets weirder by the day
>> Yeah. in terms of Trump uh releasing it
all. You guys are still obsessed. What's
happening? They better release
everything. Like it's so wild uh
watching him vacillate, watching um Kash
Patel and Dan Bongino go from bro day
one we got you
to
uh I think a Putin every time men in
black suits coming up to them whispering
in their ear this is not how the
government works and them just suddenly
like nobody's interested. This this
one's crazy. This one feels like
um
the ugly under the hood machinations of
the world came up to the surface and
people just like there's no way I'm
going to let you see how things actually
work. Um Drew my producer who's just off
camera right now. Hi Drew.
Uh has said you'll never get the Epstein
files. Like he's been saying that from
day one. How what's happening? Give me
the FBI angle. Yeah there's there's a
the truth is somewhere in between the
two extremes which is what so often
turns out to be true, right? So um
Jeffrey Epstein was doing a lot of
illegal stuff on his own.
In the eyes of the justice system
a bad guy doing bad things is useful.
It's helpful.
>> That's so wild. Because bad guys doing
bad things are almost always connected
to
other bad guys doing other bad things.
And that opens up this access route this
utility
for the Justice Department to say oh
well now we have a smorgasbord of bad
guys, but we only have access to these
bad guys through this one bad guy here.
So they created this process called a CI
a covert informant or a clandestine
informant. The CI's job is to inform and
to gain and grant access to a wider net
of bad guys.
>> And this is specifically an FBI thing.
It's specifically a a law enforcement
thing. Okay.
>> So So is it CIA or FBI?
>> CIA is not law enforcement. Interesting.
>> Yeah. CIA's job is intelligence
collection not not law enforcement.
>> to kill people.
They used to be more able to kill people
than they currently are.
So law enforcement falls under the under
the judicial branch. Intelligence
collection falls under the executive
branch. That's why the president can do
whatever the hell he wants to with CIA,
but the president cannot do whatever he
wants to with FBI.
Right?
>> That's that's how it was that FBI could
could investigate the president and how
he decided to have a backlash against
the FBI. CIA he just says no. He just
shuts off their budget and and tells
them he doesn't listen to them and and
stops using them and that's how you have
the max the mass exodus of 2016 that you
had at CIA during Trump's first
administration.
So you have these two different branches
of government. One controls CIA, the
executive branch. One controls FBI, the
judicial branch. That also means that
Donald Trump can say, "Release the
Epstein files." and that doesn't have
any impact on the judicial branch. They
don't But is Kash Patel that makes that
decision or someone else? So, they can
they can be
pressured into acting when the
legislative branch and the executive
branch both work together in a checks
and balance way.
>> Like if Pam Bondi and Kash Patel say
we're releasing it. Is there's nobody
else, right?
>> Not really, yeah. They they can they can
choose to do that on their own as long
as it fall it fits American law.
American law is dictated by the
legislative branch. So, here's why I'm
saying this. I'm saying this because
even if
our legislative branch votes to have the
judicial branch release the files, that
does not mean that they control what
gets released or where it's released.
So, the files might be released only to
the Senate Intelligence Committee or
only to a sub committee in charge of law
enforcement, not to the American people.
You're not going to They're not going to
vote today and then tomorrow you're
going to have full access to every file.
They also might only release redacted
files because there's going to be lines
and details inside all of the files that
have law enforcement, intelligence, or
national security relevance. So, it's
all going to be redacted. You're already
seeing that in the emails that were
leaked recently from house members.
Who makes those redactions? The
Department of Justice makes those
redactions. Why do they make those
redactions? Because they're protecting
other cases that they're trying to close
for criminal conviction.
So, release the files. What what's
laughable to me is that they can release
the files and uh the average American
still won't see them because they're not
going to be released to the public.
They'll be released to subcommittees.
They'll be released from the current
kind of bucket of control they're in in
the Justice Department and they'll be
released to the legislative department.
And then the legislative department and
the subcommittees there will determine
whether or not it should be released to
the public or it should go right back to
the judicial department because we have
to protect XYZ case.
Epstein as a CI was incredibly valuable
because as much as he did bad things
the people that he had in his sphere of
influence did worse things in the eyes
of the law.
This is an uncomfortable truth that
people need to understand. In the eyes
of national security
a pedophile is not that big a risk. Yo.
That sucks, but it's true. If you're
trying to protect a country, if you're
trying to protect national secrets, if
you're trying to protect our ability to
win a war against China
a guy having sex with a an underage
child is not that important. But when
that pedophile is connected to other
world leaders, when that pedophile is
connected to politicians that might be
corrupt, politicians that might be
allowing foreign influence in American
policy
now all of a sudden that person can be
granted amnesty
in exchange for their cooperation in
advancing the cases for all these other
targets.
That makes the most sense
in in any research I've done, in any
expert I've spoken to, in any review of
the evidence that we've gotten so far on
Epstein, that explanation makes the most
sense of any other. That the United
States said, "Hey, you're doing shitty
You're doing bad things. Here's a whole
list of things that we can arrest you
for and and convict you for today."
And he saw that list and then they said,
"Or you can cooperate with us to bring
down bigger fish." And what's a guy like
that going to say? This isn't the mafia.
He doesn't have to worry about somebody,
you know, whacking him, he didn't think.
So, he's like, "Okay, I'll cooperate
with you because then if I cooperate
with you, you bring down some big fish,
I don't ever go to jail for the things
that I have to do to stay influential in
my network
and now I'm protected.
Right? At the end of the day, we all
have two instincts that we have to deal
with. Our survival instinct and our
tribal instinct. And those those are the
two instincts that drive us. Sometimes
we're very survival based. Sometimes
we'll sacrifice our survival to be part
of a group. In that moment Epstein was
like, "I need to survive. I need to take
care of me more than I need to take care
of my friends, which are my tribal
instinct." And then
life just is. That's just how human
beings are wired. All of us have that
same decision matrix every day.
And what do you think about um was he
exfilled by the FBI so they could either
protect their sources or did somebody
actually have him killed or was this
just the guy that was like, "I don't
want to go through the trial." Yeah, I
don't think he killed himself. I I will
say that
>> Because of evidence. What has been
released to us so far when I look at it,
it just it doesn't make biological sense
to to be able to hang yourself
essentially off of a doorknob at low out
at at a low distance from the ground.
It's a very difficult thing to do.
So, I it it just seems biologically
improbable, not impossible, but
improbable. And then even though I have
I have I have supported wealthy people
who have been convicted and are going to
prison. I I provide counseling and I
provide um training Oh, [ __ ]
>> to shape to shape their mindset before
they go into prison. Woah.
>> Because they're going to come out of
prison, too, right? So, I have I have
helped people in that way. Okay. I've
helped people in that way and they all
have that same thought
that Epstein most likely had where
they're like, "It's all over.
My wealth is gone. My reputation is
gone. My family will forever hate me. My
kids are better off without me, so I'm
just going to kill myself in jail. I'm
just going to give up and never talk to
anybody again."
They all have that moment and it's just
a mindset moment that they have to work
their way through. Without a doubt,
Jeffrey Epstein had a consultant like me
who came in and coached him on his
mindset. Without a doubt, his attorneys
would have done it for sure. He had too
much wealth behind him for someone not
to invest in that way for him.
So, when I think of probability,
probability is he would not have killed
himself. Probability is even if he tried
biologically it wouldn't have been
successful. So then, what did happen?
Was he killed in an organized criminal
activity or was he or was he killed as a
political martyr of some sort? But most
likely, most probable to me
he was violently attacked. Whether they
intended to kill him or just intimidate
him, I don't know. But that seems the
more likely case.
That's completely separate from his role
as a CI.
If he would have been discovered as a
CI, he would have been even more likely
to be killed. If he was not known to be
a CI, they still wouldn't want to
release the details because to release
the details of his role as a CI would be
to undermine the all the other CIs in
the world right now who are providing
information about worse bad guys than
them to the FBI. The promise the FBI
makes, the promise CIA makes to all of
their assets is we will protect you. You
will provide us information. We will
protect you to the best of our ability.
The best of their ability when they're
protecting a US citizen in the United
States is pretty high. Mhm.
It is uh like this one is wild to me in
terms of um
what what does it say about the state of
the government, I guess, or just how
dirty the work is.
>> Like that We've all been We've all
believed
that we're good.
We've all believed that we're on the
right side of humankind and we're a good
and decent government.
Why do we
>> When I watched House of Cards, it didn't
seem plausible. So, it was fun. I
enjoyed it. Very over the top. I'm like,
"Get out of here." And then Epstein
having it, I was like, "Oh my god."
>> Yeah. Like this might actually be like
the level of chicanery that's actually
going on. That that's where I'm like
"Wow, this is really hard to
metabolize."
>> Again, you have to look at those two
razors that we talked about, right?
Occam's razor and Hanlon's razor. Is it
more likely
that we only recently became corrupt as
a federal government?
Is it only recently that we became
highly politicized and and survival
oriented?
Or
have we always been that way
but the advent of technology has made it
more transparent to the layperson? Which
one of those is more likely? Well, if
you keep If you take the most simplest
explanation, we've always been that way.
So, it meets Occam's razor to believe
that we've always been this way. We've
always been this way. It's just that
technology has made it so that you and I
can now keep up with it at a faster
pace. And then if you look at Hanlon's
razor, don't subscribe to conspiracy
that which can be explained through uh
idiocy.
Then again, we've always been this way.
It's not that we've been able to keep a
secret. It's just that nobody's had
real-time access into so much
information about what's happening in
government. We've never had so many
leaks. We've never had so much press
interest. We've never had so many
channels to communicate the information
that we're collecting. We've never had,
like you were saying before, um podcast
journalism or social journalism or
community journalism, whatever whatever
isms you want to call them. We've never
had that before. Everybody was too busy
working on an assembly line or trying to
scrape together two sticks to make a
light, right? We never We never had that
in the past. So, when I look through the
laws of analysis, it just confirms for
me what I learned when I was at CIA.
The average American has no concept of
how the government works. And the
average world citizen has no concept of
how their government works and for sure
they have no concept of how the US
government works, the largest,
wealthiest, most militarily powerful
government in the world. You think that
we became that way by playing fair? You
think we became that way by by standing
on the moral high ground?
That's not how government works. That's
never been how government works. That
will never be how government works. The
whole reason we have a representative
government is so that we don't have to
have blood on our hands as the voters.
We can elect someone else to go do the
dirty work.
Are we ever going to get transparency
into who Epstein was and what he did? I
don't believe we will. I don't believe
we will because it doesn't benefit our
national security infrastructure to tell
the true story. We might get answers,
but we'll never know if the answers that
we're given are complete, accurate, or
truthful.
Because
every government knows you have to give
the people something to follow.
And then you that doesn't have to be the
truth.
Just like what's happening right now in
the Caribbean. Why do we have a military
build-up in the Caribbean?
Because of Venezuela?
Run that through the two razors that we
talked about. It doesn't make any sense.
But that's what we're being told. And
because we're being told that, we accept
that. Nobody's questioning whether or
not our military presence in the
Caribbean is due to something else.
You think it's China?
That's what I believe.
>> We'll get to that in a minute. If you
were advising the Trump administration
right now,
how do you get enough Epstein file out
there,
lie or otherwise, that people go, "Cool.
Got it. Check. Thanks. We finally got
the transparency that we needed."
>> You don't want people to say, "Cool. I'm
done." You always want to have this red
herring. This is the definition of a red
herring. A red herring is is a useful
tool that you can use to to distract
people. You want the Epstein case to
always be available as a red herring.
So, if I was advising the Donald Trump
organization, I would say do exactly
what you're doing right now. Donald
Trump, you tell the people officially,
I think that you should let the House
vote on releasing the files. Even though
the president, as the leader of the
executive branch, could do it himself.
He could tell the the judicial branch to
do it and and they would arguably, as
commander-in-chief, be hard-pressed not
to listen to him. But he's not doing
that. Instead, he's making it the
House's problem. He's making it
Congress's problem.
So, he's like, "Hey Congress, you do
this thing from the legislative branch,
and I'm going to be the one that's the
figurehead saying the leader saying you
do the thing that's going to help the
American people."
And then simultaneously, you're telling
Kash Patel, "Release whatever you need
to release that doesn't compromise
current investigations and anything that
looks bad on our current administration,
redact."
Now, Kash Patel, leader of the FBI, Pam
Bondi, the the head of Homeland
Security, they can both go in there and
they can they can redact anything that
they that they decide looks bad on the
current administration or is related to
a current criminal investigation and
release that. And the American people
will say, "Oh, well, now we have all the
files, but what about all these
redactions?" And now the Justice
Department can always say, "Those
redactions are critical for national
security because the stability of the
federal government, the survivability of
the current administration is considered
a national security priority.
Yeah, this is going to get weird. Like
this has not been good for his
presidency and his inability to fix the
economy in a timely manner, which I
think is impossible, but nonetheless, uh
is a double whammy. We we shall see.
Well, that's I think what's happening. I
think Donald Trump is also
he's a very practical
personality. No matter how you cut it,
you can kind of accept that there's a
pragmatism when you look at it through
the lens of Donald Trump protecting
Donald Trump. That's survival instinct.
He's any any failure that he has in a
campaign promise
is something that he can distract from.
He also promised to not start any new
wars.
And he's gone back on that several
times, right? He's turning into a very
conflict-oriented president.
Not only with Iran, but also with
Venezuela. That complete that goes
completely against the campaign promise.
He's done an about-face on releasing JFK
files. He's done an about-face on
releasing Epstein files. Those were also
campaign promises.
Uh you you see him trying to like trying
to boost the economy in traditional
ways. The traditional ways are not that
different from the way Biden or Obama
tried to boost the economy, either. Even
though he tries to make it look
different. He knows that
probability-wise, this is his last term.
And coming out of this term, he wants
all the benefits of being a former
president and he wants to shore up as
few risks as possible that carried over
with him into the presidency. So, Donald
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>> The election is existential now on both
sides. So, uh Trump is obviously going
after his political rivals.
If the Republicans win, I would imagine
that whoever comes into office will
pardon Trump just to end all of that.
Uh I believe he can't pardon himself, so
that's off the table, but
if the Democrats win, they're going to
go after him legally in a big way. So,
the bad news is that becoming president
is now existential in office and out of
office. And this is why if I were
advising Trump, I would say, "Whatever
you do, don't pursue Obama. That would
be a huge mistake." Because they will
come after you tenfold. And then when it
switches again, they will come after
them tenfold.
So, anyway, we're in a super weird death
loop. But um
talk to me about Venezuela. So, China is
the thing that I'm very sad anytime
people get distracted because
uh while I would love to hold hands and
march into the future with China as an
ally,
um
but we not decouple, but we get
realistic about not letting anyone
control certain aspects of our way of
life. Uh certainly not somebody who has
proven that they will very rapidly
become an adversary. Um
what is Venezuela all about? How does
China figure into this and what should
we do?
I'll I'll answer your question directly
first and then I'll kind of backfill it
with why I think I think the way I
think. I believe Venezuela is a red
herring. I believe that all of the
Venezuela talk and the Venezuela focus
is not actually the focus of the
president, not actually the focus of the
Department of War, as it's now called. I
believe that that is all a red herring
that's being given to us as a pill that
we'll accept because we all kind of
agree Venezuela's we don't know anything
about it. That's what we all really
believe. We don't know anything about
Venezuela except Maduro bad.
And we all hate drugs. So, if you can
speak for yourself, Andrew Bustamante
now. So, if you can
>> I'm kidding.
>> If you can affiliate Venezuela with
drugs, then boom, yeah, of course we're
against it. Rah, rah, rah. Let's let's
blow up boats and let's show American
power off the coast of our own country.
I mean, who doesn't want to cheer for
that? I lived in Tampa. It gives you a
giant erection every time an F-22 takes
off and you're like, "Fuck, yeah! That's
America, right?" Like when you're
standing in the field and there's Abram
tanks that are driving by, the whole
world rumbles and you're like, "Fuck,
yeah! That's America." Trust me, I get
it. I get it. And now we get to do that
off the coast of Florida. And of course
Texas, and of course Mississippi,
Louisiana. We're all like, "Ooh, [ __ ]
yeah! That like we we're awesome." Cuz
we get to do it here. We've been
projecting that power worldwide. We
don't get to rah, rah, rah when it's,
you know, off the coast of Israel.
But here it's different. So, all of
that's to say, I believe Venezuela is a
big red herring. Now, why do I believe
that that's a big red herring? When you
look at the actual evidence, the
objective realities of the claims that
are being made,
we're fighting a drug war against
narcoterrorisms or narcoterrorists,
right? The term narcoterrorist
has an actual definition, right? And
that definition for a terrorist has to
be the use of violence to gain a
political change. That's that is what's
required of a terrorist. They must use
violent lethal
attacks in an effort to force political
change.
Narcoterrorists would just be
drug-funded or drug-related terrorists.
That's the definition that's out there
for everybody to look up.
Well, the cartels aren't doing that. The
cartels aren't using violence,
particularly not violence against the
United States, to change politics.
That's where the argument comes from
recently that they're trying to say,
"Oh, no. Maduro weaponized cocaine. He
weaponized cocaine specifically to
attack Americans." Even if that was the
case, what's the political change that
he's trying to drive? Because that's the
important part about a terrorist. They
have to be driving a political agenda.
Secondly,
only 15% of all the cocaine, at most,
only 15% of the cocaine that enters the
United States comes through Venezuela.
Um 100 of it 100% of it almost is
created in Colombia.
But then a small fraction is sent
through Venezuela and then shipped up to
um Puerto Rico where it goes into the
American postal system and then it can
be shipped all over the United States. A
small percentage.
Upwards of 90% of all cocaine
goes through Mexico. So, why are we
focused on Venezuela? If we're trying to
fight cocaine, why wouldn't why wouldn't
we focus on Mexico? Why are we focused
on Venezuela?
Doesn't make any sense in terms of
volume. Then you start to think about
other issues. What one of uh Venezuela's
top two military weapons partners are
Russia and China.
Russia historically, China more
currently.
Venezuela also maintains one of the
largest amphibious assault forces in all
of Latin America. And guess who provided
all of their amphibious assault weapons?
China.
>> China. So, if you really want to know
what an amphibious assault would look
like of China against Taiwan, you want
to get a look under the hood of what the
amphibious assault looks like in
Venezuela. What do their capabilities
look like? What do the weapons look
like? How would they use them?
China's number one trading partner is
actually Pakistan. So, China's number
one weapons importer is Pakistan.
Pakistan buys the most Chinese weapons.
But almost all of the weapons that
Pakistan buys from China are focused on
ground warfare and airborne warfare,
radar detection, uh ballistic missiles,
et cetera. That they're using against
India. It doesn't give us any And
Pakistan's a US ally. So, we know
everything we need to know about Chinese
weapons because our Pakistani partners
are probably giving us the information.
But we know very little about China's
amphibious assault capability. But
Venezuela would be our best insight into
that. Add into that mix
the fact that the Panama Canal was a
major focus of Trump during the
presidential administration because he
claimed that China controlled the Panama
Canal. That's not fully correct. The
more correct way of saying it would be
that China controlled the entrance and
exit ports of the Panama Canal. They
were predominantly owned by a Hong Kong
subsidiary.
In March of this year, Trump demanded
that that Hong Kong subsidiary sell a
majority stake to US investment company
BlackRock, I believe it was. So, then in
August of this year that that transfer
actually happened. So, it was only in
August, August 25th of this year, that
the Panama Canal became majoritively
owned by US investment firms instead of
majoritively owned by Chinese investment
firms. And then within 2 weeks after
that date, the first drug boat was blown
up off the coast of Venezuela.
>> Really? So, I'm not saying we have
smoking guns, but I'm saying we have
multiple verified s- uh independent
sources of information that point to the
fact that our conflict in Venezuela
actually isn't about Venezuela.
>> So, uh the boats that we're blowing up,
are they us really going, "Oh, these are
narco boats." or these boats that China
is working with them to do a thing and
we want to keep sending a message to
China.
>> No, I believe that they're actually
carrying drugs. And if you look at some
of the drug Not only the drug boats
between Mexic- or between Venezuela and
the United States, but even the drug
boats that are going to Europe, like
they're busted old boats. They're
handmade, they're leaky, they're they're
s- they're they're not
they're not um
significant enough that you would
imagine they'd be worth a six-figure
missile to blow them up.
>> Mhm. Right? But that's what we're doing.
Maybe it's five Maybe it's a $50,000
missile, not a $100,000 missile that
we're using to blow up the boat. Either
way, it's a $50 boat.
So, I do believe that there really are
drugs. I do believe those drugs really
are moving. And I do believe that we
really are impacting the flow of drugs.
But we're impacting a part like a a
fraction of the 15% maximum of cocaine
flow that's actually coming into the
United States.
If we really
>> buy that that's all a red herring. But
now I want to understand So, if this is
really I think we're already in a cold
war with China. That seems patently
obvious to me. So, in in the rubric of
this is a cold war with China, why what
are we doing blowing up the boats? Is it
just a reminder we have these missiles?
I mean, it seems so insincere.
>> consolidate our military in the
Caribbean. To justify sending them
there. Yeah, to justify sending our
military to the Caribbean because China
not only predominantly owned the
entrance and exit port for the Panama
Canal,
>> Mhm. they predominantly own multiple
>> not Venezuela. So, do you It's that o-
it's that part of the ocean.
>> Mhm. Right? But do you think there's a
clandestine battle that's happening that
we just aren't aware of? Uh So, I think
the answer to that is the simplest
answer is yes. My the book that I wrote
about my own experience with CIA talks
about the start of what we call a shadow
conflict with China, right? An
intelligence battle, an intelligence war
with China. And the big difference
between the Cold War that you and I
lived through the tail end of with
Russia and the Well, I lived through the
whole thing. I'm older than you, my
friend. Not the whole thing, I suppose,
since it started at World War II, but
But the big difference between the Cold
War with Russia and I don't know. We
should come up with a name for it. Let's
just call it the rice war. I'll be I'll
be racist.
>> Damn.
>> The rice war that we're dealing with now
>> everybody. The rice war that we're
dealing with now is that during the Cold
War, the United States had no economic
reliance on Russia. They were two
completely separate economies.
>> Yep. But now we have a major economic
reliance on our largest geopolitical
adversary. So, it's not so easy to have
a standard cold war where we just turn
our cold shoulder and we put up an iron
curtain. Now, we have to meet over rice.
We have to talk. We have to pretend like
we're friends even though we wonder
who's poisoning the rice, right? On both
sides. I kind of like this this analogy
right now.
>> Right? Especially since I think we grow
the rice and they actually buy our rice.
>> That is
>> There's all sorts of interesting [ __ ]
up things about our relationship with
China. But that's what we're dealing
with. So, we can't just out China. If we
out China, we go back into a tariff war,
we stop getting plastics, they stop
getting chips. It all gets really
[ __ ] messy.
So, we have to find this way to like be
in bed together, but still kick each
other under the sheets. It reminds me It
reminds me of the sport water polo. I
don't know if you follow water polo. I
know enough about it to know exactly
where you're headed.
>> Yes. I I knew nothing about water polo
till I went to college and then I became
friends with a water polo player and I
only then discovered it's a dirty
[ __ ] sport. Under the water,
>> Yeah. they do horrible things to each
other and then they just pass the ball
up top. So, when we watch, we get to see
all this cool action above the water,
but all the nasty shit's happening under
>> Mhm. the water. That's what this war is
like with China right now. So,
China owns huge chunks of the Caribbean.
China has massive leases on
infrastructure and military bases and
ports all across the Caribbean. They
have rare earth mineral rights across
the Caribbean. Their major shipping
routes go through the Caribbean.
We move all of our [ __ ] to the Caribbean
just to tell the Chinese, "Don't forget.
Don't forget. This is our house."
And that's what we're doing here right
now. We've consolidated our forces. Look
how fast it happened when we were
fighting Venezuela. How fast do you
think it's going to happen if you mess
with us? How fast can we take your your
Caribbean investments? How fast can we
cut off your flow not just to the
American uh the American market, but
also to all of your own rare earth
minerals and all of your supply chains
in the Caribbean. And oh, by the way, if
you think that you're going to continue
to grow influence in Latin America and
South America, which it has, China's
increased its partnerships all across
Latin America.
>> Massively. Look up the gold corridor.
>> Yeah. By the way, don't forget that
we're their neighbor. It's a huge
message. It's a huge message that was
arguably effective enough to walk China
off the tariff cliff that Trump just
closed with them recently. That is a
very good breakdown. I knew that this
was a move about China, but to be
honest, I'd not started putting the
pieces together of specifically what
they're doing. I didn't realize how much
of China's shipping went through the
Caribbean. That is very interesting. Um
how do you see this playing out? Is
China So, first of all, this is one of
those I have to be very careful because
I really want to believe this, uh but
I'm hearing reports that Xi is losing
power in China. Now, for anybody that
follows the timeline of China, Deng
Xiaoping, listen, he was the Tiananmen
Square guy, so only clap so hard. But
he's also the one actually responsible
for China's Great Leap Forward. Um
Xi is a reversion to Mao.
>> Mhm. And so, seeing Xi come into power
and turn the Mao spigot on and start
purging a whole bunch of people, uh
start really going back to their
communist ways, that makes me uneasy
uh for the Chinese people. Now, they may
tell me not to worry and they love it.
Entirely possible. But as somebody who
has just an absolute allergic reaction
to um
Mao, Stalin, Lenin, like a a massive
allergic reaction, I'm looking at this
going, "I really hope he's losing
power." Do you um have you paid close
attention? Is he losing power? Is that
just a pipe dream on my behalf?
>> Well, I don't think it's just on your
behalf. So, Xi Jinping is one of the
strongest leaders that China has ever
seen. Um He's very much like a Putin.
He's very much like a Netanyahu to the
Chinese. There are many people who
celebrate him as a hero, not necessarily
as any kind of villain.
>> Right.
So, your allergic reaction is a valid
reaction as a Westerner.
But as an Easterner, we have to try to
look at the situation through their
eyes. Under Xi Jinping in the last 10
years,
their country has modernized, increased
their GDP, increased their global
positioning, increased the their um
reduced their reliance on manual
fabrication and manufacturing, increased
their reliance on high technology, which
increases their overall standing not
only as a as a center of excellence in a
modern first world country, but also as
a global alternative to the United
States. That's what Xi's goal is. The
reason he's turning back to Maoist
tendencies isn't because he believes
that communism is the way of the future.
It's because he understands that
consolidated power means he can move
faster.
Whereas
>> he also looked at Russia and was like,
"We're not going to let that happen
here." And so these capitalists, like,
yeah, useful, but they get a bit uppity,
but I know how to handle that. Possibly,
but the the the point is
what what all of the world's
authoritarians are trying to do right
now, whether it's Putin or whether it's
Netanyahu, I do classify him as
authoritarian, right? Again, Israel's
different than Jews.
Israel knows that Netanyahu is an
authoritarian, you know I'm talking to
you, Israel.
Um but either way, Xi Jinping
understands that he needs to bypass the
process to move fast enough.
When you look at their when you look at
I mean the most obvious thing to look at
is their is their fighter aircraft. If
you compare Chinese fighter aircraft to
American and Russian fighter aircraft,
there's only like seven of them that are
in production right now.
Every one of their aircraft is almost a
carbon copy of either an American model
or a Russian model.
It's crystal clear that they're
fabricating based off of stolen
stolen plans. Right.
They even number them the same way,
right? We have an F-35, they have a
J-35. Why is it called J-35? Because the
J stands for Jian Ji Ji,
which is the word fighter
in Chinese. So, it's literally the F-35,
right? They they have they've modeled
this all the way down to the to the
Su-30.
So, they've got this they they copy and
then they refabricate on their own. And
that largely took off in 2017. In 2017,
you started to see a huge reduction in
Chinese importing of technology,
specifically technology that was related
to their military infrastructure. And it
was because they had finally grown their
own indigenous capability to create
high-performance weapons,
high-performance engines,
high-performance avionics,
high-performance you name it,
technology. Mhm. And that started to
become their new mantra. China knows
that the United States gained
global dominance because we stopped
creating corn and soybeans and we
started creating
financial tools and we started creating
software and we started creating weapons
and we started creating digital
healthcare devices, storage devices,
computers, software, the cloud, etc.
So, that's what China's been focusing
on, telecom, technology, AI, robotics.
They've been on that the whole time that
we were focusing on a war on terror.
So, from 2001,
when we got distracted by a global war
on terror, they started focusing in on,
"How can we just suck the West dry of
technological information and use this
as an opportunity to build our future
economy?"
That's all under Xi's guidance. So, the
average Chinese person sees the rise of
their middle class. The average Chinese
person sees more money, more power, more
influence, more global standing. They
can reach more parts of the world. The
world welcomes the Chinese in a way it
never did before outside of the United
States. Do they still have a real estate
crisis? Yes. Do they still have an aging
population? Yes. But so does South
Korea, so does Japan, so do lots of
pro-Western Asian countries. So does the
United States. Right. So, is it really
such a big deal? Like we we try to keep
a scorecard, you can't keep a scorecard
between East and West. That you couldn't
imagine two more different cultures than
American culture and Chinese culture.
Thanks for letting me. I give you these
long-ass answers today, I apologize.
Why? Because it seems
What whatever's educational, I want to
learn more. So, I'll take it. If I think
you're
uh going too hard on a tangent, well,
first, yes, we could edit it, but I
would just interrupt you.
Um okay, so that all makes sense. Is
China going to take Taiwan?
I still believe that China is is on
track to take Taiwan. Do we have a
timeline?
>> We we all think that it's going to We
all assume it's some kind of military
takeover. My original estimate was that
China would make aggressive moves on
Taiwan before the 2024 election.
In hindsight, you can actually see that
I I estimated correctly. They didn't
launch an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
Instead, what they did is they launched
an espionage campaign that shaped the
election of the prime minister of Taiwan
in October of '23, just before the
election in the United States and just
before Donald Trump took over in '24.
So, you can see right now Taiwan has a
split government. The prime minister is
pro-independence,
but the parliament is predominantly
majoritatively pro-China reunification.
Wow, I didn't realize there was a
movement inside of Taiwan.
>> Oh, absolutely. The KMT is a The KMT,
which was interestingly the original
group that left the mainland um under
Chiang Kai-shek to take refuge in
Taiwan. They were the original people
who separated from China. And now they
are the ones that want to reunify back
with the homeland. So, it's a very
interesting turn in politics, very
similar to how our feels like to me if
the southern states and the northern
states had split and all of a sudden,
you know, whatever
years later, the South is like,
"Actually, we want to reunify
with the northern states." Like it feels
like they would still be bitter rivals.
Right, exactly. And that's what's so
interesting, that they're not. The KMT
is pro-reunification,
whereas there's the real movement on
Taiwan has been a movement of
independence. That's been what's really
been interesting about the growth of
Taiwan. It never intended to be
a an independent country. It intended to
reunify and kind of take it back over
from Mao Zedong. Chiang Kai-shek was
backed by the United States when he took
refuge on Taiwan. They all expected they
would come back and take the country
again. It just never happened. So,
that's changed over time to now just be
a reunification party in general.
And and they own they control the
majority of the parliament on Taiwan.
So, you you have a split government in
Taiwan very much like you have a split
government here in the United States.
So, we're already seeing China
heavily invest in espionage, information
warfare. Another fantastic search term
for anybody who wants to look this up
themselves is just Chinese espionage on
Taiwan, Chinese information warfare,
Chinese covert influence on Taiwan.
You'll see it. It's there. It's just not
making the front page of any newspapers,
right? So, they're making those moves
now. I believe China will take Taiwan
the same way they took Hong Kong in
2019.
They did it administratively.
They changed laws, they created
administrative bridges that put Hong
Kong under Chinese Beijing control, and
then they just wrote laws and signed
those laws into law so that when they
moved into Hong Kong physically, anybody
who tried to resist was breaking the
law. And that gave them the reign that
they needed to get violent and and
arrest people, and we all forgot about
that because it happened at the same
time as COVID.
But in 2019, China went into Hong Kong
in a very violent, very abrupt, very big
way, and ever since then Hong Kong has
been part of China.
That's the MO for what they'll do in
Taiwan.
Timeline? That's the difficult part.
Xi has promised to reunify with Taiwan
by I believe it was 2027. I believe he
made that public promise as part of his
25-year plan.
Um but he's and he has worked very hard
to meet his promises. He had a promise
in 2024 to be economically or to be a
uh technologically dominant in the
world.
And I think Chinese people would agree
he has met that goal. And now his next
big promise is reunification with
Taiwan. So, between now and then, we
should probably expect some more big
moves from China.
Wowza. How do you think that'll play out
for the US? What will our reaction be?
>> we're going to sit on our thumbs cuz
it'll be administrative, that's not
violent. We have no access to part of
it. We Why Why put American troops in
harm's way?
Why stand in the way of this rice war
that we're already in the middle of,
right? If we try to fight for Taiwan,
then China's going to cut off our access
to other things that we need. China cut
off our access to to rare earth minerals
and we
changed our almost overnight we changed
our narrative. They know they have they
have levers that they can pull for us
because we're dependent on them. So, the
question will become, is Taiwan worth us
breaking our dependence and our reliance
on China? And what would that mean for
the United States to not have what
China's giving us, not have uh
disposable goods, not have cloths and
fabrics, not have shoes, not I mean,
what would that actually look like? We
don't even have the manufacturing
capability here to do it.
That's why we're making friends with
India, hoping that India will be there
for us when we cut ties with China. But
China's also making inroads with India
to make sure that India sides with them
when they cut sides when they cut ties
with us. So, India's in the best
geopolitical position of any country out
there right now having the the two
largest economics economic superpowers
kind of vying for its affection. Right.
But uh I don't I believe that when China
makes its move on Taiwan,
we'll
put up our vote in the UN that it's that
it's uh
illegal and it's not supposed to happen
and we should and you should back out,
just like we're seeing with Ukraine and
Russia right now. All the all the UN
members who are like, "Oh, we vote
against. This is a bad idea. You're
breaking the law." But they're not doing
anything else. That's how it's going to
work.
What about though
um
the
T TSMC, TMSE, the chips? Like how do we
get around that?
>> So, Biden launched the CHIP Act when he
was still in office here. And a part of
that CHIP Act was not only creating an
avenue for TSMC to start building
manufacturing base here on the United
States or here in the United States, but
also creating an indigenous capability
for the United States to create their
own high-performance chips. Yeah. TSMC
doesn't have IP over the chips that they
create. Their chips that they create are
ours. Yes, but like we can't yet
manufacture. Correct.
>> as I know, the person that's the closest
is Elon with the new chip, but they're
making a chip specifically for xAI,
either xAI or Tesla, I can't remember
which. Uh, but that's with TMSC. TSMC, I
cannot ever remember those four letters.
>> I think it's TS TSMC, but somebody can
fact-check us. Yes. Um, so if China were
to take Taiwan administratively or
otherwise, and then say you can no
longer interface with them, since we cut
them off for so long from those chips, I
can't imagine they're going to smile on
that, and that would be a very um, like
that's a kill shot.
>> That's cuz you're assuming that China
would cut them off.
That's why the United States doesn't
want a hot conflict on Taiwan.
Because if
>> Yeah, I get that, but like if I'm trying
to Listen, uh, I've read enough about
China to prognosticate. So, here's how I
think this is going to play out.
>> Okay. Uh, I'm Xi Jinping. Yeah, in 2027,
I'm not going to cut off your access to
chips because there are things that I
need to do to make sure that I can
squeeze you to death. And so, I'm going
to make a couple moves,
uh, and then in whatever 2033, I'm going
to start suddenly now you can't get
access to the chips that you need. And
so, if the US does not get very
aggressive about
decoupling is always a risky word cuz
people really start going crazy, but uh,
if we aren't able to make ourselves
technologically independent, we are
going to be in a very weakened position.
People need to only look to the
communications that Xi has done when
it's aimed at a Chinese audience, where
he's like, "Yeah, we're going to start
being dismissive of the US on an
international stage." Like that was a
very conscious move. Uh, and so, this is
how Thucydides Trap goes off, where the
US is like, "Okay, we're not going to do
anything in Taiwan because we don't have
the plausible deniability that we do
need, but all of a sudden, uh, "Ooh,
sorry, did we sink a Chinese ship going
through the Caribbean? Our bad. Like we
totally thought that was a Venezuelan
drug boat." So, it'll be
it'll be things like that that will just
keep like escalating the tension.
Uh, China is China believes that they
have a mandate from heaven to run the
world. Uh, and they can't have an uppity
declining power like America stand in
the way of that. So, I mean, it's like
12 out of 16 times when a rising
superpower has collided with a declining
superpower, it has ended up in hot
conflict.
>> Yeah. So, maybe we're in the four out of
16, but the odds aren't with us.
>> Correct. I I'm on the same page as you
are. And it's just a matter of when and
how those chips start to fall. Because
China outmaneuvered us
for about 12 years
by by building a rival or building the
the beginnings of a rival technological
economy.
And in creating that rival, it gave the
rest of the world an option. Do you buy
from the United States or do you buy
from China? You all need this
technology. You all need cell phones.
You all need laptops. You all need, um,
MRI machines. You all need, you know,
pacemakers. You all need it. So, who you
going to buy it from? The United States
at the same premium that they've always
charged?
Because they've been the global
monopoly? Or are you going to buy it
from us, our Chinese alternative, which
might be less effective, might be less
good, might just be a copy of them, but
it comes at a much reduced price.
More and more countries of the world are
buying Chinese. They're buying Chinese
alternatives, which is not only
diminishing our economy, it's also
diminishing the premium that we put on
our own materials.
And the only solution that we've been
able to come up with so far is to start
tariffing the rest of the world
and negotiating, if you stop buying
Chinese and you start buying American,
we'll reduce your tariffs. That was the
whole tariff war that that that Trump
put in motion that nobody seemed to
understand at the moment, and hopefully
they understand that now. He wasn't
trying to like increase tariffs to make
money from Europe. He was trying to to
create an artificial negotiating point
to get Europe to concede to United
States technology rather than Chinese
technology, especially when the majority
of the cars, the electric cars in
Germany are Chinese. The electric cars
in Spain are Chinese. The electric cars
in France are Chinese. They're not
American electric cars.
So, you see all of this playing out. I
agree with you. A hot conflict is the
most likely conflict, traditionally
speaking.
China knows that, too. And both
countries know that as soon as a hot
conflict erupts, as as soon as there is
interstate war,
everybody loses.
They both lose
people, they lose
reputation, they lose technology, they
lose growth opportunity, they lose
economic benefits that they lose
because that's what history has shown
us. So, how long can they
can they, um, kind of keep this rice war
in perpetuity?
And in the hopes that the United States
melts down on its own, or what we're
talking about here, China's going to
melt down on its own. They're hoping for
an internal meltdown without ever having
to resort to hot conflict. Talk to me
about America's meltdown. What do you
think the likelihood is?
I mean, when you when you put it in
probabilities, I can I'm only talking
about an economic meltdown. I believe
that all of our woes are tied to our
economy. You and me both. Um, and I
don't see us
taking any steps that are going to
resolve our economy right now. So, my my
estimate is that 10 to 15 years is kind
of 10 to 15 years is our window to fix
our economy.
But I don't think anyone's going to fix
it. So, it's really after the 15-year
mark that we're going to be either
in a hurt locker, where we have declined
too much to fix ourselves, or we're
actually on the fringe of social
meltdown or political meltdown. So, but
I do believe we have about 15 years to
figure it out. The question is, are we
willing to put ourselves in a a great
depression that we start for ourselves
in order to fix our own financial
problems? And that's really the only
solution that we have, because just like
you were saying earlier, all the
economic incentives for a government
are inflationary. Create more currency,
increase the value of assets
artificially, make the wealthy who own
the assets artificially wealthier using
more dollars that actually value at less
per dollar.
And that's how you keep everybody
appeased, and you squeeze the the the
bottom class, and the middle class gets
squeezed cuz they have they have no way
of investing in assets, but the overall
wealth remains predominantly high.
Do you ever watch Dexter? No. My wife
does, and so I've seen like little
snippets of it, and there was a spoiler
alert, uh, there was a very interesting
scene where a serial killer, not Dexter,
has a woman on a ledge,
and he's like, "You have to jump."
And she's like, "Can you please push
me?" Mhm. And he goes, "That's not how
this works."
And she's like, "But I don't know if I
can." And he goes, "Well, I bet if I go,
get your kids, and start throwing them
off, sooner or later, you're going to
jump."
And that's the position that the
American economy is in right now. We are
going to fall.
If we jump, we can actually fix things.
If we wait to be pushed, then it's too
late.
And we really can't get We can't make
ourselves jump. It's so wild.
And it's been I mean, I've talked about
it many times. Exactly what you do. It's
called a beautiful deleveraging, which
is a terrible word for everyone is going
to suffer, but we'll try to make sure
everybody suffers roughly on par so that
nobody feels singled out. Um, but we're
all going to suffer, but on the other
side of this, like we can get back to,
like, growth and being the America that
we used to be.
People just can't do it. It's It's the
same way I feel when people are like,
"Americans won't pick strawberries." or
whatever. I'm like, "Well, if there's no
other option, they'll pick the [ __ ] out
of those strawberries." The problem is
right now, they can get government
subsidies. And the really bad news is,
as you subsidize them, you
are pushing us off the cliff. And so,
sure, they they fall a little bit later,
but they fall a lot harder.
>> Yeah. So, there's a lot more blood
splattered on the ground. I just It It's
one of those where getting people to pay
attention long enough to actually
understand the thing that you just
explained, um, is impossible, I'm
finding. And so, it's terrifying. When I
cuz I I try to educate my company,
um, on where where our economy is going.
Because I want I want the people that
work for my company to have the most
success possible. And I understand that
just by virtue of the fact that they
work for my company and don't own my
company,
that already puts them at a
disadvantage. So, I try to get them to
understand how this works. And I
recently had a conversation with a few
of the folks that are my full-time
staff, and this seems to connect with
them, right?
We have to hire a new person just
because of the growth of the company. We
have to hire a new person.
So, as we were evaluating how much we
were willing to pay and who we were
going to find and what our
qualifications were,
my people themselves landed on the
conclusion like, "Oh,
we're in a down economy right now.
Everybody's looking for work. So, we'll
be able to get a very good person at a
very low price."
They understood economics enough to
understand that they have negotiating
power. We have the job. There's lots of
people out there looking for the job.
>> Right. So, we don't have to pay the
person what they're worth, we just have
to pay them what the market is worth and
the market right now is down. So, we can
get a $90,000 a year person for $75,000
a year.
And they understood that and I was like
I was super proud of them. I was like,
yes, you get it. That is with everything
else in our economy right now, too.
Right? Everything is desperate.
Everything is on the decline. So, so not
only are you are you is a well-educated,
skilled, hard-working professional
not only are they worth less in terms of
dollars right now,
but the dollars that you will be paying
them will actually be worth less every
year moving forward that you continue to
pay them. So, I'm going to We're going
to pay somebody $75,000 a year who's
worth $90,000 a year and then next year
when we pay them the same salary, we're
actually paying them less because the
dollar has going to decrease in value.
And project that over three or five
years and then it started to really
connect with the people in my company.
They're like, oh [ __ ] They connected it
to their own salary. They're like, that
means that the money I'm making right
now is going to be the same next year,
but worth less. It's going to buy less
car. It's going to buy less milk. It's
going to buy less eggs.
And then I was like, yeah, that's why I
want to encourage you to learn about how
to invest, how to invest in the market,
how to invest in currency, how to invest
in anything. I had a another wealthy
client who was like, all you have to do
is throw a dart at the NASDAQ and
wherever it lands, you're more likely to
have success there than if you keep your
money in cash. Sad, but true. For a
while, it all gets very volatile very
fast.
Um
I love sitting down with you. Uh where
can people follow along with you? Uh
you'll always find me at
everydayspy.com. You'll find me on
social media everywhere at everydayspy.
I have a YouTube channel for Andrew
Bustamante.
>> Yes, you do and it's killing it. I
appreciate you very much, sir.
Uh and then of course, you'll find me on
bookshelves now all over the world with
my with my CIA memoir.
>> Best-selling author.
>> Times best-seller. It's amazing, man.
>> It is amazing.
>> you. And that book is called Shadow Cell
and uh yeah, anywhere people want to
find me, I'm happy to meet them there. I
love it. All right, everybody, if you
haven't already, be sure to subscribe
and until next time, my friends, be
legendary. Take care. Peace.
We just had a socialist elected to the
be mayor of the biggest financial city
in the world.
Um what do you take away from that? Do
you think that that's going to make New
York City better? Is this a good
direction for