Video summary
Cal Newport reflects on a decade since publishing *Deep Work*, noting with concern that while his warnings about social media ubiquity and constant digital distraction have become common sense, the problem has actually worsened rather than improved. He cites Microsoft's 2025 data showing knowledge workers are interrupted every two minutes, leading to "cognitive fatigue" because switching attention between abstract tasks takes ten to twenty minutes for the brain to reconfigure itself. Newport argues that tools like Slack were built specifically to facilitate a "hyperactive hive mind," which prioritizes constant ad hoc messaging over deep focus; while effective for coordination, this style of collaboration prevents workers from entering flow states and leaves companies leaving money on the table by failing to utilize human brains efficiently. The conversation shifts to the rapid advancement and limitations of generative AI, specifically Large Language Models (LLMs). Newport explains that after GPT-4 demonstrated broad capabilities like playing games and solving math problems, subsequent attempts to simply scale model size hit an asymptote where performance gains became marginal without significant architectural changes. He predicts a future of "distributed AGI" rather than a single monolithic intelligence, consisting of thousands of bespoke systems combining LLMs with world models, logic engines, and policy networks tailored for specific tasks. This shift suggests that while AI will automate many jobs in the near term—evidenced by stock market dips in SaaS sectors like legal advice and graphic design—it is unlikely to achieve total economic disruption immediately because current technology lacks true reasoning or structured understanding of citations, often hallucinating facts as seen when an LLM failed to retrieve a specific quote from Isaac Asimov's *I, Robot*. Newport also addresses the mechanics of learning and reading habits in the digital age. He posits that deep reading is not merely about consuming information but physically rewiring the brain by connecting visual and auditory processing centers into new neural pathways, a process essential for handling complex modern ideas. While he acknowledges e-ink devices like Kindles are superior to backlit screens because they mimic physical pages without inducing skimming behaviors, he warns that short-form content on platforms like Substack encourages shallow mental models where users grasp isolated points rather than understanding the nuanced arc of an argument. He contends that reading full-length books is necessary to develop the cognitive stamina and complexity required to navigate a world filled with sophistry and low-resolution simulacra of truth. Finally, Newport offers strategic advice for navigating this evolving landscape by focusing on quality over quantity in both work habits and information consumption. The core strategies he identifies are treating focus as a trainable skill that yields superhuman results in the knowledge economy and rigorously controlling one's workload to avoid being overwhelmed by too many projects. He emphasizes that saying "no" is counterintuitive but essential for optimizing output, noting that adding more tasks often leads to diminishing returns rather than increased value. Looking toward quantum computing, he clarifies that while it holds promise for specific problems like factoring prime numbers or simulating physics systems, it cannot simply run LLMs faster and remains a narrow tool with significant technical hurdles regarding error rates in qubit stability. Ultimately, Newport concludes that the future belongs to those who can maintain deep focus, manage their cognitive load effectively, and resist the urge to rely on AI for tasks requiring genuine understanding or creative synthesis.
Read the full video transcript
Dude, you
must be feeling like Cassandra at the
moment. So prescient, the distraction,
the necessity of deep work, the inherent
bombardment of our attention. Do you Do
you feel like you saw the future earlier
than what even at the time maybe felt
late with deep work and focusing on
quality over quantity and stuff?
I mean, I think part of what I noticed
was the present was crazy to me. And no
one else recognized it. So it was less
even predicting the future. I I feel
like there was a time
God, it's like 10 years ago now.
Where I was looking around and yeah,
saying two things. One, social media
doesn't make sense.
Why are we all pretending like this is
at the the center of democracy and civic
life and all business we all have to be
on here all the time. And two, email
doesn't make sense.
Not what was going to happen in the
future. I'm just like looking at the way
we're working today with email and Slack
and Teams was coming. Like this
completely does not make sense. You're
switching your context once every two or
three minutes. This is a terrible way to
actually use your brain. So I never
thought of myself as predicting the
future as much as just telling people
what was going on then that it makes
sense. And everyone thought I was crazy.
And 10 years later, it just kind of
jumped from I was crazy to it's common
sense. So it's not even that interesting
that I'm saying it anymore. So I kind of
skipped the part where
where it sounded prescient.
>> Do you feel vindicated?
Um I think certainly on a couple issues.
The social media issue was a big one
because I used to get a lot of flak for
that.
For for going out and I wasn't even
saying
social media was bad. Or that no one
should use it. Really what I was pushing
back on was just the idea of ubiquity.
The idea that everyone had to use it. I
said, "This doesn't make sense. I get
there's some people this makes sense
for. There's a lot of technologies that
have markets that make sense for it. But
why is there this pressure for everyone
to be on these services? This is not
going to a good place." They're They're
spending a lot of money to mine
attention and they're going to get
better at it, right? And at the time
this was considered
uh crazy. What do you mean? Like you
want to use social media. I wrote a New
York Times op-ed back I looked this up
the other day. It was 2016.
And it argued
maybe social media is not the biggest
thing for a young person to focus on if
they're thinking about their career.
That's what it was. It was like focus on
your career instead of social media.
Actually doing things well is what
really matters.
And you would think
you know, that I had just come on and
say like America as an idea is done and
grandmother should be kicked. Like
people were upset about this. The New
York Times commissioned a response op-ed
two weeks later that was
that went through mine. I mean it and
said this is what is wrong about Cal
Newport's op-ed or whatever because it
made such a furor to suggest it. And
today it's it's boring to suggest like,
you know, social media has problems and
most people probably shouldn't use it.
People people agree with that. The one
that upsets me though
that one I feel like people have come
along to and more and more people are
being much more selective and minimalist
about their social media.
The distraction, email, Slack,
constantly jumping back and forth
between different things.
That's just got worse. I mean, I think
people recognize it now. This is
probably not a good way to work, but I
thought because there was dollars and
cents here this is less productive from
an economic productivity standpoint to
have all of your workers
changing their attention all the time.
You're just getting a really low return
on all the money you're investing in
these human brains. So I thought, oh
this is dollars and cents. This is the
one that's going to change.
Social media is fun. Like that's going
to be hard to change people's behavior,
but certainly this hyper distraction
thing in knowledge work that'll change
because we're leaving money on the
table. It hasn't changed at all. It's
gotten worse. It's worse than it was.
It's I'm at the 10-year anniversary now
of the book Deep Work. So this like this
month is the 10-year anniversary. It's
worse.
>> Congratulations, dude. That's [ __ ]
seminal. Like that that has become a
part of the lexicon. That's really
really cool. Yeah, but it's it's got me
a little bit depressed because I've been
doing this 10-year reflection. Like
okay, it's been 10 years and the book
was a hit and it's millions of copies,
etc.
And that is the issues I talked about
are worse. They're like really worse
than they were 10 years ago.
So, people know the problem, nothing has
changed. What does the data suggest
around
the worstness of it now?
>> I've been
the one I've been following, the study
that I think is useful as a trend line
is Microsoft actually does this annual
report where they gather data from
Microsoft 365. So, it's like Office and
Word and PowerPoint and Excel. Nowadays,
you use this sort of the web-based
version of these is very common. So,
they can gather data from just tens of
thousands of knowledge workers actually
using all these different tools. And the
latest report they put out in 2025 now
has the interruptions on average once
every 2 minutes.
So, it's just gotten out of control. So,
switching to a communication tool once
every 2 minutes. They also found the
latest report, and this is depressing to
me as well. There's one time in the week
where they see a notable rise
in the use of the non-communication, so
actually using the core productivity
tools like Word or PowerPoint, and it's
Saturday and Sunday morning.
So, we've just
put the work off until the weekend when
there's no expectations of responses and
spend the actual weekdays talking about
work.
Which I just don't get. Like that is not
economically productive. Like companies
are leaving money on the table, but it's
just where we are. We really can't quit
this behavior. Isn't it interesting that
you had to try and appeal to a very
utilitarian approach for this?
>> [clears throat]
>> That you didn't say this is probably
making staff miserable.
Uh it's not a good use of time. We've
got some really strong evidence that
suggests that doing one thing and
getting better at it over a protracted
period of time actually makes you feel
more satisfied. You get into a flow
state, etc. etc. You look back on your
day and you can look at the things that
you did.
None of that, which is the much more
immediate experiential
uh way that people interface with
distraction. You tried to appeal to the
bottom line, which you thought, "Well,
you you incentives incentives align the
[ __ ] incentives." Um and that didn't
work, which obviously means also that
people's level of
administrative burden misery is also
coming along for the ride at the same
time. Yeah, it's a it's a [ __ ] mess,
dude. And I think, you know, even with
what I do, it's not a very big team, but
Slack Slack is like
it's so useful
and
invites so much chaos at the same time.
It is And with Slack Slack wouldn't have
been that big during deep work, I'm
going to guess. It wasn't big. It wasn't
out yet. I I talk in deep work about
these very early instant messenger tools
that no longer exist, like Hipchat, that
was just emerging among the programmer
class. I was basically saying there'll
be dragons, like let's be careful about
that. But I wrote an article about Slack
years later uh when Slack was bought.
So, I think Salesforce bought Slack. I
wrote an article about it for the New
Yorker. And I think the title of that
article gets to the core of the issue
you're talking about. Uh the title was
Slack is the right tool for the wrong
way to work.
And I think what happened Here's my
whole theory on Slack is that when email
arrived
it moved us to this new style of
collaboration that I call the hyper
hyperactive hive mind, where we'll just
figure things out um on the go with ad
hoc back and forth unscheduled
messaging. Just sort of like shooting
messages back and forth. We'll figure
things out, like we're all just kind of
connected all the time.
That's a terrible way to work for all
the reasons I talked about. It's
distracting, it's context switching, you
can't do anything deep, it's hard to
produce value. But if that's the way
you're going to work
email clients are not a very good tool
for that. You have threads and it's
clunky and there it's hard to search
through your email and find what you did
before. So, Slack came along and said,
"Look, if this is the way you're going
to work
hyperactive hive mind, constant back and
forth ad hoc coordination, we'll build
you a better tool for that." So, that's
why people both love and hate Slack.
It's a really good tool for that style
of collaboration. It works really well,
but that style of collaboration makes us
miserable.
So, it's this weird love-hate
relationship we have. Like, this works
great. I hate the thing that is making
me use here.
>> Why does it Why does it make us
miserable, that style of collaboration?
Because our brain isn't meant to switch
our target of attention that quickly. It
just takes us a long time if we're
talking about targets that are abstract
and symbolic.
It takes us a long time to switch from
one to another. Physical world targets
we can switch quickly, right? We're
wired for that. If there's a tiger's
roar,
I can boom, 100% attention, what's going
on over there. But, when we're thinking
about abstract things, information,
ideas, things that are symbolic and in
our head, that's us
we're basically uh reappropriating our
brain hardware to do something we're not
evolved to do. It takes a lot of effort
to do symbolic thinking,
to think about uh abstract concepts. And
we know it takes 10 to 20 minutes to
fully change our attention context from
one abstract target to another. It takes
a long time. That's why if you sit down
to write something, everyone has this
experience, the first 5 or 10 minutes
like, man, this is terrible. Like, I I I
I'm making no progress or whatever. And
then after a while you're like, oh, this
is starting to flow. Like, it's going
better. That's because it took that much
time
for your brain to load up all of the
relevant information and to inhibit all
the unrelated circuits and get your
brain really ready to do that activity.
So, if you now interrupt that brain once
every 2 minutes,
it never can lock in on anything. And
what you feel then is this sort of
diffuse cognitive friction that we begin
to experience as fatigue, cognitive
fatigue. And it's a really frustrating
experience. It's why if you go to an
email inbox,
you're like, I have time.
I'm going to empty this inbox. I'm going
to go message by message. Here's the
best way to do it, right? On paper. I
I'm going to go message by message and
I'm going to answer these messages. Why
does that get so hard? Why do you find
yourself like jumping around and looking
for easier messages? Because each
message is a different context than the
other, and that's torture for the brain.
It's really, really hard to go from
all right, this is a complicated
question one of my employees is asking
me, and now this is a completely
different issue, completely unrelated to
that, where I have to think up like a
good title for something, and now here's
a completely different issue, and you're
trying to switch one after another.
Our brains aren't wired for that. It
really makes us unhappy.
What would you say to someone who wants
to try and retrain that attention? Maybe
maybe they they're going to try and make
some sort of a stand inside of Slack and
say I will only be available at certain
times of the day, but
regardless of the inbound, let's say
that they fix the inbound, cuz that's a
totally separate problem. That's much
more sort of structural.
Um
unless you've got any advice for that as
well. But how how does someone go about
re-
appraising, retraining their mind away
from that? Because we be we do become
um we got like Stockholm syndrome. It's
Slack Stockholm syndrome. Where our
captor, tormentor, becomes the way that
we operate, and we've got our favorite
little ways of working, and it feels
like we've done But then at the end of
the day we look back
and have this sort of odd
malaise thing about what did I actually
do
today? What got What What got done?
Well,
not much. Not much got done.
Yeah. Well, it's hard unilaterally. If
you've changed nothing else about your
workload or your communication
protocols, if you just say
uh I'm not going to be on Slack from
this hour to this hour. I only check my
email twice a day, or whatever that
standard advice was from 15 years ago,
it doesn't work well, because if you're
involved in a large number of projects
that are timely, and the way progress is
going to be made is with ad hoc back and
forth messaging,
you have to be in there checking. That's
the brutal part of the hyperactive hive
mind is that it has defenses to its
elimination built into its very nature.
>> [gasps and laughter]
>> Because if this is how we're going to
figure this out, like we have to have
five or six back and forth messages to
figure out what we're going to do about
this client coming tomorrow and we have
to get this done today, that means you
have to see my next message right away
so that we have time for me to answer
you and you to answer me and for that
ping pong match to happen, that means
you have to be checking your inbox or
Slack constantly. Otherwise, you're not
going to see my next message in time for
this whole game to unfold. So, the very
nature of that style of collaboration
demands constant inbox checking, which
is what I think people often get wrong
about this when I think about things
like Slack or email. They think too
often about either
information, like oh, I've got so many
messages in my inbox that I don't need.
I have all these newsletters and spam.
That's not a problem. That's a minor
problem. That's an easily solvable
problem. You It's a clutter, you know,
that's not a big problem. Um the issue
is actually my collaboration style
requires me to be in there because if I
miss messages in a timely fashion,
everything falls apart. And so, the
issue is not
how do I interact with my inbox? It
really has to be
how do I change the way the inbox is
being used? I mean, so I ended up I feel
like had three big ideas on this that
span three different books, right? So,
um in Deep Work, like one of the big
ideas was you can train your personal
ability to focus. Uh focusing is really
important. Putting aside for now all the
things trying to prevent you from
focusing, you have to practice it. And
if you practice it, you'll get better at
it. And if you get better at it, you'll
be a superstar because like that's what
matters in the knowledge economy.
Everything good comes out of focus.
Then uh I wrote a book after that called
A World Without Email.
And in that book, I was arguing uh
the way we the thing I was telling you
about, hyperactive hive mind.
Communication is a problem. This is a
real problem. The fact that we are using
this method for coordination is causing
all these trouble. It's really causing
problems. And I went through all the
data and all the research and made the
case this is super non-productive. I
went back through the archives of the
New York Times business section in the
'80s and '90s to exactly document the
rise of email and how people were
talking about email when it first came
onto the business scene and I made the
case
the way we work is arbitrary. This
hyperactive hive mind was not a plan. It
wasn't seen to be more productive. We
stumbled into it, so we really should
change it. So, that was that book. And
then the the most recent book, Slow
Productivity from a couple years ago, in
that book I argued, "Oh, wait a second.
Workload matters, too." The other issue
with this problem is we don't put any
limits or transparency on how many
things we're working on.
And if you pile too many things on your
plate,
too much communication interruption
becomes unavoidable because they each
have little issues they need you to deal
with. So, so I've now, over this 10-year
period, have kind of broken down this
problem. There's like training yourself
to focus, Mhm. fixing your communication
protocols. Like, how do I communicate in
a professional context? How do we
collaborate?
And then managing workload to be more
reasonable. All three of And this might
be why this problem's not solved.
There's no one thing to fix, right? So,
all three of these things go into the
the issue and they're each complicated.
What of across those three books, all of
which are great and everyone needs to go
and check out. I think we've done
episodes about each of them, so they can
just go and listen to those. And then
and then and then buy the books. Um
looking back across this
portfolio of productivity advice,
mhm
what have you heard from readers or what
has been the stickiest
strategies for you?
You you look back and you go, "Okay,
that's the 80/20 of of of what I've
published over the last three books."
To me, I think the
the big two that give you the biggest
results,
and then I'll tell you the one that's
the hardest and
that's why this book probably sold the
least. Um the big two that gives you the
biggest results is taking focus
seriously like a skill. That really does
make a difference. Practicing focus,
you get better at it. And it has a a
demonstrable
difference. You sit down to work
and you're just producing better stuff
or you're trying to pick up some
complicated new thing like, "Oh god, I
can learn this faster." That makes a
huge difference.
Um and then the second one, which was
more recent in my life, was, "Oh, you
really got to control the workload."
So much is downstream from how many
things you've agreed to work on. You
have to leave the mindset of everything
I say yes to brings with it value.
So saying yes to more things is just
going to aggregate more value. That's
not the right mindset. That's not the
way it's it's a non-linear
uh you know um
reward function there.
There's a certain point as you add more
things and not only does value stop
growing, uh it begins to go down on the
other side. And there's a real uh saying
no to many more things is actually a way
to optimize
reward and output, which is not natural.
Uh it doesn't make sense at first. It
doesn't feel like common sense. So
workload and focus training,
you can control those more than you
think and you're going to have huge
results from those.
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The
learning to say no thing is interesting,
especially
as people
progress inside of their career and they
get better at what they're doing,
they have to learn to be able to say no
to opportunities that they would have
only begged to have had the opportunity
to be in the room to have maybe said yes
to Yeah. only half a decade ago.
Yeah. In that time, you've had to go
from needing that opportunity to
actively being able to say no to
something that's probably better than
it. Alex, my friend, told me about, you
remember in the Matrix, the woman with
the red dress, and Neo turns around and
he says, "We're you looking at me or we
looking at the woman in the red dress?"
Look again and it's a an agent with a
gun in his face.
And
the analogy that Alex used was
and now imagine that she's not a 10 out
of 10, but imagine a thousand
hypothetical 1,000s out of 10 and you
need to be able to say no to them, which
previously you would didn't even know
existed. So, this I think the kind of um
It's almost like reverse entropy or
habituation. You know, you your
opportunities get better, which means
that your capacity to say no needs to
get better
more quickly than that. You can't be
chasing your tail trying to learn to be
able to say no less quickly than the
opportunities get more seductive. Yeah,
it's almost perverse.
Uh the way that works. It's like when
you have all the time in the world, all
you want is opportunities. And then when
you have opportunities, all you want is
all the time
>> [ __ ] pace. in the world. I had to
change I don't know what you do, but I
had to change my rule at some point.
This was hard for me to the default no.
Like that's just how I have to operate
now. It cuz as soon as you try to have a
triage rule,
well, look, I'm not going to do this
opportunity unless I only do speaking
gigs that have this much money or this
or I'm only going to go meet with
someone if they're like this interesting
or this or that, eventually the number
of things that satisfy that criteria
overwhelm you just as well. It's just so
I've I I've just had to fall back on the
default no. I mean you're you're
you're talking to somebody who came back
from a two-day trip to Qatar at the
start of this week. So I spent as much
time
traveling as I did in the country to to
give a talk. And as I looked around,
there was this first the first night
dinner, there was maybe 300 people
there, and I'm talking to Logan Paul and
Steven Bartlett's over his shoulder and
the CEO of Qatar Airways is here and the
Middle Eastern director for Meta's over
there. And I was looking around
thinking,
everybody here
wants to be here. It's very exciting.
Everyone's really lovely. But also
everyone here can't say no. Everybody in
this room is chronically incapable of
saying no because it's
>> no to this one several times, by the
way. I I the amount of invites
[laughter] to the
Qatar and the UAE and other places,
I have I have said no to many of them.
>> consider me a [ __ ] consider me a [ __ ]
compared to you, Cal. Whatever whatever
it is. I must be easy an an easy booty
call. They tried to get Cal Newport. We
couldn't get Cal, so we'll ring Chris
instead. The default no. Oh, man. Yeah,
it's it's crazy the things you end up
saying no to after a while. But I mean
there's a currency shift. For me, time
to think is such a valuable That's a
more valuable currency than money.
Right? You get to a point where you're
like, "Oh, I'm doing fine."
But if I don't have time to think,
what's the point? And then that becomes
just like really rare currency that's
that's much harder to get a hold of. And
that's the only way I can protect it now
is anything that requires me to like go
somewhere it's a default no. And then I
can talk myself
out of it later. Right? I'm like, "You
You what? I can bring my family with me.
We can have a trip, right? So actually,
you know what? I I will do this or uh
you know, I just did a uh I had a master
class course released um
this week.
I spent
a year and a half saying no
to that. And then like eventually, I
sort of talked myself I talked to some
people.
Uh they're like, "Well, come to DC to do
it." I talked to you know, James Clear
just done one and I had a good talk with
him about it. And I was like, "You know
what? This is This will be interesting."
And it took me a year and a half um but
I finally talked myself into it. So I
will say yes, but it's just the default
no means that you don't have to
>> standard. Yeah, you don't have to run it
through the ringer. And then you're
like, "Okay, if it really sticks with
me, then maybe I'll be like, all right,
all right, I'll do it."
How much should people actually be
working?
Well, it depends what you mean by work
and what they're doing.
Right? Because think about it. Let's say
you're an athlete.
It's super well defined. Like here's
optimal training, here's optimal rest,
and like that's what you should be
doing. Like you the the
That's really clear. We don't have those
limits as clear in the culture for other
types of jobs that we probably should.
If you're at a a high-wage hourly bill
job, like a law partner at a big law
firm, there the economic model is the
more you work, the more profitable it
is. And we'll we'll pay you big money to
do this, but like you should basically
work as much as you can that your body
will take it. That's the economic
engine. That's why I think those jobs
are those jobs are scary. If you're a
novelist
that writes literary fiction, so you're
like, "I really need to be award
nominated for each book or I'm going to
fall out of this like slipstream of
because no one's going to read these
books unless they're some of the best
books."
Then you should be doing like 4 hours in
the morning and then just
disappear, right? Like you should be
doing all
very little more work than that because
almost anything else will get in the way
of you like sticking in that position.
And so it all just depends on what on
what you do, you know?
Didn't you look at some experiment of
shorter work weeks?
Yeah. What what did you learn from that?
There's a lot of these right around the
pandemic, right before and then right
after, in Europe and Iceland.
So, some European studies, I think
Germany did one, Iceland did one, UK did
one. And they were looking at four-day
work weeks.
So, what would happen if we take away
one one day? The interesting thing about
those experiments is what they found is
the whatever measures of productivity
they came up with,
uh they didn't get worse, which I
thought was very interesting.
They took a day away,
and yet the perceived productivity or
the measured productivity didn't go
down. And there's there's two ways to
look at it. The one way to look at it is
to say, "Oh, this means that like we
should have a four-day work week because
it things didn't get worse." And okay,
maybe maybe, right? But to me, there's
like a bigger observation that came out
of that, which is like, wait, so what
were we what are we doing
during the work days? Like this there's
something
going on here that should really catch
our attention. What does work mean
that we could take an entire day off the
table with no other preparation,
and the the valuable stuff being
produced doesn't change?
This tells us that like whatever we're
doing while we're sitting here in work
is not just sitting down and trying to
produce value. We're clearly have all
sorts of other sorts of distractions
going on, uh context switching, time
that's being devoured, Parkinson's law
is at play.
Uh work must be broke. To me, that was
the more important observation. It's
that like if you can take away a day and
nothing changes, then I don't think
we're doing in the office what we think
we're doing in the office. Parkinson's
law was on the tip of my tongue. Work
expands to fill the time given for it.
And if you give people five days,
they'll take five. And if you give them
four days, then they'll do it in four.
And And look,
>> [clears throat]
>> everybody knows
just how much time they waste not doing
the work, not doing the thing that
they're supposed to do. And this isn't
victim blaming. This is a lot of the
time dealing with admin, unnecessary
meetings. You can't get out of them. You
have to be there for whatever reason.
So, it's not as if it's bottom-up. A lot
of it is top-down dictated. This is the
environment that you work in and you
have to do this.
But even outside of that, when you do
have your 1 hour in between meetings,
your inability to not I I remember I
used when I used to run nightclubs and
I'd get in
at 2:30 in the morning,
the final part of the night was cashing
the till.
So, this was before we switched to
tickets, which was sort of the late
teens, just before COVID.
Uh digital tickets online, which meant
that you didn't have to cash as much
money in the till. Uh but before that,
it was all, you know, £5 and £10 notes
and £20 notes and single pounds and all
the rest of it. And I would go into the
office with the manager of the venue and
we would be counting the money. But this
is the final task. It's the final bit of
the night. It's [ __ ] 2:15 or 2:30 in
the morning. We've just taken the taken
the till off, as it's called. Anybody
that's coming in doesn't get to come in.
Blah blah We're not going to take any
more money. And I'm sat up there doing
like light lift mental arithmetic, but
for me, somebody who hadn't done math
since I was 16, it was a relatively
heavy lift.
Flicking through the money, flicking
through the money. It's like a you know,
huge fluorescent overhead lights just
before and then I get to drive home and
I'm like thinking about it. I got to go
put the money in the till and I got to
write it in the the spreadsheet and then
I get into bed. And as I got into bed,
my eyes below my eyelids would start
flicking left and right. I wouldn't be
able to tune myself I'm also doing this
and let's not forget
in a sweaty beer stinking office above a
room
I've had to walk through the club. I've
had to shout at the the hostesses. One
of them's getting fingered on the dance
floor. Stop doing that. You're supposed
to be at work. The DJ's pissed. I need
to you know, it's chaos. And I've tried
to coordinate this orchestra of
[ __ ] And then I've had to do mental
arithmetic. And then I get to drive
home. And then I'm like, okay,
chill out brain. It doesn't want to. And
that eyes moving left and right thing, I
think it's the sort of
optical equivalent, ocular equivalent of
how people feel when they finally get a
moment. It's okay, all of my stuff is
done. And then they try and sit down to
work on the thing that ostensibly this
actually there to do, right? Cuz all of
the other [ __ ] the meetings, you're
not there to do the meetings, you're not
there to do the Slack, you're not there
to do all of that is foreplay to get you
to do the thing that you're there to do.
And then you sit down to do the thing
you're there to do.
And your eyes are moving behind your
eyelids is the equivalent. You've
swiping and moving across the screen and
you've got a few different other Well,
I'll just check on this thing. Like,
what the living [ __ ] is going on? I've
like trained
the environment that I work in
has trained me out of being able to do
my work.
Well,
we are meant to do like what would be
the ideal work day
in an office environment that would
actually match the human brain? It would
probably be you come in,
you work on something hard for a while.
Like, that's what you do in the morning.
You have lunch.
And then you like catch up with
have some meetings, talk to some people.
Hey, what's going on? And and you know,
do some task and that's your day.
Like, that's basically what we can do.
Like, two things. One big burst of like,
let me focus on something hard. And then
we can kind of come down the mountain
after that with let me chat with people,
what's going on? Some decisions need to
be made or whatever. That's probably
about optimal. Instead, we juggle a
dozen to two dozen tasks that all have
their own demands, they all have their
own communication needs.
Uh this is why the Microsoft data shows
all the work happens
the Saturday and Sunday morning. It is
really hard. You can't go from And
meetings are very hard as well. We think
like, oh, I'm not actually doing work
during meetings. But what you are
engaging in a meeting is all the parts
of your brain that deal with social
interaction.
And those are a large part of your
brain. And that is a fraught and mental
energy-consuming activity to sit in a
room or on a Zoom screen and try to
manage all these different people and
how do I look? And what am I saying, and
what's going on here, and I have to say
the right things. It's draining. And you
come out of something like that,
it's difficult just to jump right back
into something else. And if you come out
of something like that, and there was a
lot of obligations generated. Oh, we
discussed in this meeting things I need
to do. And now you try to go straight
from that meeting into another,
well, now that's really in the back of
your head. What about this? What about
this? We can't forget this. We just made
our obligations. That that feeling of
fatigue, it's a it's a really it's
fatigue fatigue is what it feels like, a
mental fatigue, like there's a sand in
your brain, sand in the gears of your
brain. That's the state that a lot of
people who work in front of a computer
screen, like that's the state they're in
most of the day, and they don't even
realize
oh, that's a bad feeling. That's a
negative state. That's that's not how it
needs to feel, because you have nothing
else to compare it to. Yeah, the amount
of things we're doing, the amount we're
trying to switch back and forth. I
always thought that part of the problem
was a lot of our current thought about
work culture and hustling and what it
means to produce
was influenced by Silicon Valley in the
'90s and 2000s, because that was
considered this very um
ascendant part of the economy, you know,
through the 2000s, through the Steve Job
era. We looked at Silicon Valley, like,
these are the coolest companies, they're
doing all the coolest stuff.
Over there, I think they adopted a model
of work that was very inspired by
computer processors, right? So, because
that was what was in the air in the '80s
and '90s in Silicon Valley was the
computer processor wars, you know, the
386 versus the 486 versus the Pentium.
And it was all about speed. And the
thing with a computer processor, if
you're a computer type,
what matters is uh you never want the
pipeline to be empty, right? You want to
always make sure you have stuff for that
processor to do, so it never waste time.
The processor will every command you
give it, it operates the same as any
other. It can switch, it doesn't care
what they are. It just sits there and
operates one command after another. And
the whole game with getting processors
to be effective is like don't have
downtime. Like the real fear, I can put
on my computer scientist hat for a
second, the real fear in computer
processor design is that you sometimes
get to a command that's going to
generate a huge delay.
So it's like, oh, go get something from
memory.
Uh that takes a lot of time from the
perspective of like a computer processor
cycle. It's just sitting there cycle
after cycle doing nothing while you're
waiting for the memory bus or whatever.
So we invented these processor pipelines
like, oh, while we're waiting
to get something back from memory,
here's some other stuff the processor
can run so that it's never not working.
And the idea was you want to move as
fast as possible and you never want to
have downtime. And that's how you get
the most out of a computer processor.
This human brain is like 180° different.
We can't just switch back and forth
between unrelated commands. You switch
me from one to another thing and boom,
30 minutes of my mind is fried. Humans
operate very differently, but I think
Silicon Valley associated is that here's
the thing we're going to associate with
being really good at your job. It might
have used to be,
I don't know, your skill. It was uh Don
Draper in Mad Men. Remember that
conception of of what it means to be
good at your job? They weren't showing
Don Draper grinding it out. Like, man,
Don Draper is like in the office till,
you know, 3:00 a.m. every night or
whatever. No, he took the 5:00 train
back to, you know, Connecticut or
whatever. It was he he was really really
good
at coming up with ad copy. He was good
at what he did. That's what you used to
respect. And then after the '80s, '90s,
Silicon Valley became pervasive.
Like, no, what matters is you never have
a no up. You never have a down cycle.
You might as well say yes to more
things. You might as well get more
emails so you never have time where
you're not working. That's what
productivity is going to be. And that
was a disaster for the human brain.
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There's definitely an element of this
that it's very
public productivity. Very obvious. Look
at how hard I'm working, right? If
you're the one that replies quickest on
Slack or on email, then it's evident
that you're the one it looks like you're
the one that's working hardest because
you're the one that's most responsive.
Whereas the person who's silently
working on their own, they can't
broadcast it by design. They can't
broadcast it to everybody else. So yeah,
this uh
obvious productivity in a way is way
less sexy. So I think, you know, the new
elephant in the room is AI and how that
is
enabling an increase in pace
uh of output but almost certainly a
decrease in quality. So
fold AI into your existing
worldview because to me it just seems
like a huge force multiplier for what
already was pretty sloppy.
Slack, email, async communication that's
always on, people taking their work home
with them, never being able to not
context switch, not focusing on quality
and instead focusing on quantity, not
being able to to dial themselves into do
deep work for one moment. And now
that is
enhanced and magnified even more by the
use of LLMs to help you put out more, to
help you think less, so your focus is
actually you're you're in Slack with
your LLM. It wouldn't surprise me if
there is a LLM integration into Slack at
some point in future. I don't know
whether there is.
Um where you can just do it in there. So
you're just talking back and forth in
one [ __ ] workspace. Talk to me fold
AI into this. You must have a million
thoughts.
Oh, there's a lot going on with AI. Uh I
mean I think in its current
instantiation, so we think about like an
office worker for the most part, put
programmers aside, I'll get back to
them, but non-programmers are really
interact with chatbots. Like that's the
main way they're integrating right now
with AI.
It's exaggerating exactly what you said.
For a lot of people, it's exaggerating
the problems that already exist. Now
there's a term for this that comes out
of a Harvard Business Review article
from last year. They call it work slop.
Let's say put together as one word.
And they have some pretty compelling
data on this.
>> So what's work slop? Define work slop
for me.
>> So work slop is AI-generated work
products in the knowledge work sector.
So like emails, reports, and
PowerPoints, or what have you, that are
generated quickly by AI,
but they're so low quality that they
actually it's very difficult that they
make everyone else's jobs harder. This
seems to be This is like the defining
aspect of work slop. It's quick to
produce, but it's so low value that it
actually no real progress is made. So
like you get a work slop email from, you
know, your boss or whatever, and like
this isn't useful to me. It's this weird
wordy thing that's broken up into
sections, and it doesn't get to the core
of the problem we have to solve. So you
made that email quick,
but in the bigger uh scheme of things,
we made very little progress towards uh
what we want to do. Or you put together
a work slot PowerPoint presentation so
that you would have something at the
meeting,
but now we're spending 20 minutes
looking at this nonsense, and nothing
it's not helping us. It's not helping us
actually do things. So, this is what's
happening, or at least my fear. I mean,
the reality is most people
aren't using these tools in the office.
Uh I mean, let's just set the reality,
right? So, but for the people who are
using them right now, um which is a
healthy percentage, but it's not
>> know what the numbers are?
Well, it's difficult because there's a
lot of fudging of the numbers here.
There's a lot of mistaking uh have used
or experimented with
with are regularly using them. So, I see
this mistake happen a lot.
Um and so, it's difficult to get good
numbers. There there was like famously
um I think it was an Ethan Mollick
article where he was talking about in my
world like academia, the homework
apocalypse. And he's like,
"Look at this study. Students just don't
do work anymore. Uh nine out of 10 are
just using chatbots now."
But you look at that study, and what it
actually said was nine out of 10 had
tried using a chatbot at least once. And
if you looked at who's using them
regularly, it was like two out of 10,
right? Because like for most of the
students, it was wasn't helping them the
way they thought it would. So, I don't
know what the numbers are. Um
if you count like advanced Google use, I
think it's larger. Like, yeah, I search
for information on this instead of going
to Google.
That's larger, but in terms of people
who are actually making office work
product out of it, I think it's smaller
than the people who follow AI commentary
or talk about it on AI Twitter, AI
YouTube. I think it's a lot smaller than
they probably assume, just because in
their world is pervasive. But the people
who are using it, this is the problem,
uh they're trying to avoid, this is my
theory on this, is like what how is AI
helping like an office worker now? Well,
their brain is exhausted from all this
context switching. So, what problem are
they looking to solve?
They're looking to avoid having to do
hard moments of cognition, because their
brain is so fried. Mhm. Mhm. It's really
difficult to like solve the blank page
problem. Oh god.
I got to send this email. I got to It's
a blank screen. I got to start writing
from scratch. That's really hard. Yeah.
And if I have to
>> The inertia that they've been trained
out of overcoming because of the prime
It's almost like a a one-two punch.
Yeah. Humans were primed to not like
heavy cog Well, we already didn't like
heavy cognitive load. Then our ability
to deal with it and get through that
initial resistance was decreased through
the context switching. And now we Don't
worry about it. Don't worry about Don't
worry about it, carbon-based life forms.
The silicon-based life forms are coming.
And let's throw in one one other aspect
in there also outside of work. We have
these distraction machines in our hand
that were further degrading our comfort
with concentration because any possible
moment of introspection we would have
had even outside of work, why would I do
that when Tik Tok has like the perfect
dash cam video of, you know, a Karen
getting punched or something? Like I got
to watch that, right? Uh and so we've
com- we we we have that revolution comes
along plus the email revolution. We
completely atrophy our ability to think
and we exhaust our brain. So, the other
aspect of it, as we talked about, it's
really exhausting to go through your day
context switching. So, like I don't have
any reserves left to write this
PowerPoint. That seems impossible. And
then AI is like, "Hey, hey, hey, hey,
hey. I can do it for you. It'll be fine.
It'll be fine. It'll be good enough.
It'll be good enough." You're like, "Oh,
okay. I can smooth over" I used this
analogy in a New Yorker piece last year.
It's like it takes your effort graph
looks like spikes like an EKG or
something like that. And AI smooths over
those peaks and so you don't have to
your peak concentration required can
come down. Like, "Well, you can fill the
blank page." And then maybe I have to
work with it a little bit, but that's
easier than doing it from scratch. But
the stuff being produced is no good. And
so I feel like work's law
it's almost less of a
It's less of a um
critique of AI than it is AI making
obvious a problem with the way we were
already working. I think that's what's
going on there. I think this is even
happening with computer programmers.
This is considered, you know,
heretical right now. I guess I'm used to
being yelled at. Uh people are really
excited by
this workflow where I have seven or
eight Claude code agents going
concurrently producing code and testing
them and I'm just a manager of all these
different processes and they're all
producing this code on my behalf and it
feels really cool and interesting like
this has to be the future.
I don't know that that is. I mean, I
don't know the context. The problem is
outside of like demos or internal tools
or just having fun.
That's not really code you can trust
very well and it it does though
completely lower the peaks of being a
computer programmer. Those peaks of
cognition is much much easier to manage
a bunch of Claude code processes
than it is to come up with an algorithm.
And then you have that same blank page.
So I'm I think the jury is still out on
even where we're going to end up in the
AI impact on programming. I don't know
where it's going to end up, but the way
it's being talked about in the last few
months after the latest Claude code
update, which is sort of I guess that's
something humans don't do anymore.
I don't think we're there ready to say
that yet. I get popped with Claude code
ads.
I get I I you give me a terminal, I have
no idea what to do. I'm like I'm like,
you know, someone's grandmother trying
to use an iPad. I have no idea what's
going on. So they are
pushing very very hard at the moment of
this.
>> it's kind of it's funny, but it's a
little bit crazy, but it's my world,
right? I'm a computer scientist is that
uh for engineer computer scientist
types, they they forget how technically
advanced they are. So yeah, Claude code
uh works in the terminal, right? And
that's why it works so well. It exists
in a world of text only. Text command
line commands like the old DOS command
line. It's all text commands,
um which you can do a lot with. You can
create and edit and compile computer
programs. So it's very good at that and
it's a limited set of textual commands.
That's perfect for a language model. Um
and the engineers are like, "Oh, we can
use this terminal-based tool to do all
sorts of other stuff that's not computer
programming.
Great. This is the pro- This has solved
the pro- Everyone's going to be doing
this. Everyone is going to have these
sort of personal assistants based on
something on Cloud Code." I'm like,
"Man, do you realize
how foreign a command line interface is
to pe- You realize like how weird and
nerdy and complicated your world is?"
You're like, "Yeah, this will be great.
My grandma will just on the command line
understand that like the Cloud Code
agent can bring up a bash script that's
just going to cat those files over to
the the regex grep, you know, it'll be
fine." They don't No one knows how to do
any of that type of stuff. So, it's sort
of funny seeing the engineers building
these incredibly intricate, nerdy,
wonderful tools they've custom built for
Cloud Code to help them in their life.
And they think the gap between that and
everyone else having AI automate things
in their life is like, "Oh, it's this
real small thing." I'm like, "Oh, man, I
don't think you understand." I mean,
people are still not quite sure about
the right click. I think you got You
still have a ways to go before there
there
>> uh
I I saw this this tweet uh from Robert
Freundlaw.
Uh lawyer uses ChatGPT to help write a
brief. ChatGPT hallucinates cases and
quotations. Court sanctions lawyer and
four co-counsel for not catching the
errors. The lawyer who used ChatGPT has
practiced for over 30 years. He prompt-
prompted ChatGPT, "Write an order that
denies the motion to strike with case
law support." Told the court that he
doesn't normally use ChatGPT and he used
it this time cuz he was caring for his
dying family members. Said none of his
co-counsel were aware of this use of
generative AI. Court says that because
all five attorneys signed both documents
that included these errors and they
admit that not one of them verified that
the case law in those briefs actually
exist, their conduct violates Rule 11b2.
There's hundreds of those happening,
right? I heard I don't know where this
site is. There's a site that tracks
this.
Lawyers getting busted for chat GPT
written briefs that just make things
because it will for sure make up things
if you ask it. Because again, what it
tries to do is, you know,
not to get People know this, but right
at the very bottom, what is a language
model trying to do? It's trying to solve
the word guessing game. That's how it
was trained. It was given real text. You
knock out a word and say replace that
word. Can you figure out what word was
really there in the real text? So, the
language models just think they're
trying to expand a real text that really
existed. So, they're trying to produce
text that makes sense given the prompt.
They're not There's not world models or
structured reasoning in there of like,
"Okay, this is a legal brief and we have
a notion of a citation." We don't know
how it thinks about that. There's
hundreds and hundreds of cases of this
happening. I heard Scott Galloway talk
about this on the Pivot podcast that he
tried There's some site that tracks this
that he keeps an eye on, and he says it
astounds you. You think it's a handful
of people?
It's not. It's all the time. I got
Here's my story of getting burned by
that. I sort of learned my lesson. I was
working on uh because the the the the
one way I'll use chat GPT is just
sometimes instead of Google.
Right? Um especially if I'm if I want
like instructions for how to
whatever, change settings on something.
It's great. Uh it has a lot of really
useful stuff.
>> [ __ ] spectacular for all of that
stuff. If you want to use it, it's
basically a glorified Wikipedia that's
more instructive, like Yeah. Yeah, and
then you could have like Wikipedia you
can ask questions of. Yeah. So, so um I
was using I was writing a an essay
and it was on Isaac Asimov's um Rules of
Robotics. This was a
New Yorker essay.
And um I left my copy of I Robot. I was
here at my studio and I left it at home.
I was like, "Oh, I needed to add this
quote, right?"
Uh and now I left it. And I was like,
"Oh, you know what? That that story is
in the public domain. It's all over the
internet." And this seems like it would
be perfect for chat GPT. Like, "Hey, can
you just grab a copy and find me that
quote?" And that'll save me a little bit
of time. He's like, "Yeah, here it is.
Here's the quote." I was like, "Yeah,
that's roughly I remember I put in put
in there."
And then the fact-checker was like,
"Where's this quote from?"
I was like, "Yeah, it's from the story
or whatever." I I get the book. It had
just hallucinated a quote that was more
or less like what was said, right?
Because again, it's kind of playing the
game of this is the type of text it
would make sense giving the prompt, but
it wasn't the actual quote. It had full
access to it, right? You can search this
it's in the public domain, so that the
actual story is everywhere. So, I had
just naively assumed if you ask it for
some information that exists on the
internet that oh, it'll just go find it
and format it for you. Uh it didn't. And
then I went to a whole dialogue with it
where I was like, "This is not the right
quote." It was like, "Yeah, you're
right. You know what? I thought you
meant paraphrase a quote. Here it is."
Made up. I was like, "That's not the
real quote. Can you go
get the real quote and give it because
at this point I was just experiment, you
know, I'd already filled it in the
article. And it was like, "Uh you're
right. Yeah, you know, I was being
hasty. Here you go."
I could not get it to give me the real
quote. So, anyway, so I would I learned
my lesson. I was like, "Oh, don't assume
even if it's common information that it
has access to
>> Dude, the desire the desire to [ __ ]
reprimand an LLM and I I've shouted at
them. I've capital letter exclamation
marks. It's like, "What are you How are
you What are you doing?
What are you do It is
What what What are you hoping to achieve
by throwing your emotional distress at
this [ __ ] disembodied voice on the
other side? Okay. We
bits aside. I [ __ ] love ChatGPT. I
think it's been really really fantastic
for tons of things. It what's important
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What opportunities do you think an
increasing reliance on AI opens up? Cuz
I I get the sense that as more people
use LLMs to do the work for them, this
will create advantages in some areas for
people who don't need to be
reliant. So, have you thought about the
the holes, market openings that have
will occur?
It will. I mean, the way I think about
LLM based AI versus more advanced AI
that we don't know how to do yet is, you
know, my theory is the
what is being affected is going to be
more narrow at first. It's going to be
places where there's a an exact match
between what generative AI existing
tools can do
um and existing
market sectors.
We saw this actually the week we're
recording this. We actually saw this
reflected in the stock market. It was
this interesting paradox that was going
on this week, where the stock price of
software companies
that deal with stuff that is well suited
for an LLM
went down. There was there was they call
it the the the SaaS-pocalypse, right?
The software as a service apocalypse.
So, um you know, companies that do like
legal advice, uh companies that do
graphic design, like Figma and Adobe,
because a lot of you know, we have
generative image generation is making
building images from scratch is less
useful. Uh customer service, so
companies that do a lot of customer
service type software.
We saw the stock was sliding on these
very specific software industries
because they're like, "Look, I think
LLMs are going to be able to do this."
It was triggered by Anthropic releasing
some plugins that made it easier to
integrate LLMs into your services
without having to hire these other
companies.
But you would think that's would be good
news for the big tech companies building
the AI that's going to replace all this.
Their stock was sliding as well.
So, the big tech companies had this big
slide that at the end of the week we're
recording this, there was a rebound at
the end, but where it was like a
trillion dollars in market cap
disappeared from the the big tech
companies at the same time. So, what
does that mean the market was betting
on? What are investors betting on at
that point? What was going to happen?
And they were betting that in the near
future, the next year or two, what we're
going to see
is uh selective impacts in specific
fields
from generative AI,
but also that too much money is being
invested in these AI companies uh as it
already, which means they're betting
that they're not about to automate most
of the economy, they're not about to,
you know, just one more iteration away
from a huge economic disruption. They're
not They're not uh at this peak of like
complete transformation because if they
were, you would be trying to increase
your holdings in these companies. Like,
I don't care how much money they're
investing, these companies are going to
be worth an astronomical amount of
money. But the market is betting
I think the impact is going to be more
limited in the one to two-year window
than uh a lot of the commentary we're
seeing. So, I think that's important
because talk is cheap, but tech stocks
aren't.
And so, people, the way they spend their
money actually often has more of I think
there's a lot of information in that
versus just
I've been reading these articles online
and I got the vibe really seems to be
saying this is a big deal.
So that I kind of agree with the
market's consensus right now. For sure,
there's going to be industries that are
affected. But it's not going to be one
of these situations where you say,
"Okay, any work that's not just the
deepest creative work is all going to be
automated in the next few years. So I
better go learn how to like do art or
something like that." I don't think it's
going to be that broad at first. I don't
think the current generation of AI
technology can support as broad of
impacts as people think. There's a lot
of extrapolation from "Well, if it can
do this with code, certainly it could do
this with all these other jobs. If it
could do this with this industry, well,
certainly next it'll do it for all these
other industries." We have to be wary of
those extrapolations. Right. You you
I think I read an article from you "What
if AI doesn't get much better than
this?" Yeah. Sort of if we have, I don't
know, some sort of Flynn effect thing
that kicks in before AI where,
you know, cuz
I think
a lot of people would agree ChatGPT 2 to
3
[ __ ] hell, to 4, 4.0, I know there's
this there's a whole furor on the
internet about people that have got
girlfriends or boyfriends that are
virtual on 4.0 and they're all getting
up upset and sad about it. And I don't
understand. I don't think I use the
tools sufficiently deeply to be able to
test this and benchmark it. It's like
my Fire TV Stick's remote isn't working
well.
I I
it was able to do that [ __ ] 5 years
ago. Um
but is your your thinking is that we're
maybe going to reach asymptote for what
LLMs generally and transformer
technology is able to do and then it's
going to be a new architecture entirely
if we're going to actually get beyond
this? Yes. Yeah, that's what that
article was about. I think that was a
very
Of the articles I've read, I think that
was a really important one. That came
out in August. And the and the story it
tells, and a lot of other people have
told the story as well around that time
and since, but the story it tells is
basically what happened
is there was this big paper that was
published in 2020 the lead researcher
Kaplan Jared Kaplan I think was at
Anthropic at the time and it was this
paper where they said hey something
weird is happening here if we make LLMs
bigger and we train them longer
they perform better. Like technically
they are seeing the loss decrease.
That sounds kind of obvious but in like
machine learning circles that was
surprising because there's this idea of
overfitting where if you just make your
model bigger
um the performance goes down so it used
to be like you have to find the perfect
size model for your problem space.
That's the way people thought about
machine learning until this paper came
out and like I don't know transform
based LLMs
uh they were using GPT-2 and they were
systematically making it bigger and they
were seeing that the performance just
kept going up. Like this is interesting
so let's try it and that was GPT-3. All
right, let's actually make this like 10x
bigger surely this can't be right and it
was it matched the Kaplan curve exactly
like oh my god this actually got way
better just by making this bigger. Like
all right, well
certainly that must be the end of it.
Let's try it with GPT-4. They made it
bigger they trained it much longer
months and months they trained it you
know Microsoft had to build these custom
data centers to train it with new AC
technology didn't exist before
and it fit the curve. It was like way
better and the thing GPT-4 did
that really got so GPT-4 set off the
whole industry. The thing it did is it
started showing abilities beyond just
language and that's where people got
excited like oh wow if you train a
language model on enough language
it learns about things that isn't just
producing language. It can play games it
can do math problems it can do logic. I
mean this was super exciting. It was
super exciting so the assumption was
do this two or three more times
you have AGI. So that's what the whole
industry was based off of when we went
from three to four was
this is legitimate justified excitement.
Expand the size and the training
duration two or three more times
and the economy is going to happen in
the box. I mean, it was so That's where
all of That was the the engine for all
this excitement. So, they tried
uh at OpenAI it was called Project
Orion. They made it bigger model than
four. They trained it even longer. Like,
here we go.
And they tried it and they said, "It's
not much better."
And this was this
big uh
brick wall surprise for the industry.
Like, wait, it didn't get better. Um
everyone else tried as well.
Right? Grok, they tried this with Grok
as well at the Colossus data center with
like we're going to have 200,000
GPU data center. No one's ever built
anything this big.
And it was like a little bit better. Uh
Meta tried this. They had a model called
Behemoth. Like, we built the biggest
data is bigger than anyone we've had
before. They didn't release it because
it was marginally better
than the last model that they had. And
so, this was a huge issue, right? You
couldn't just make the models bigger and
train them bigger. So, what they did was
they switched to
what are other ways we can get
performance increases and can we get
more narrow by what we mean with
performance? And this is where we began
to get all the alphabet soup models.
Well, it's GPTO 03-mini/whatever.
Uh and they switched the focus from just
this is amazing if you use it to we have
these benchmark graphs. And look at
these graphs. Things are going better on
these benchmarks. It all became about
benchmarks because these are very narrow
things that you could train models to do
well on. They weren't intuitive. GPT-4
was just awesome.
By the time we got to GPT-5, their whole
launch their launch page had 28 graphs
of uh
benchmark names that no one knew what
they were. And so, then they had to look
for all these other ways to get
improvement and that's where you got
like inference time compute. Well, what
if we we compute longer for harder
questions? And they began really pushing
fine-tuning. Well, for specific types of
problems, we can get data sets that have
answers and uh questions and answers and
we can use reinforcement learning to try
to take this pre-trained model uh and
make it better at this particular type
of problem and then we can have a
benchmark that shows us we got better at
this problem. And my argument in that
article is like
this is a way different game than we
were playing when we went from two to
three and three to four. We're no longer
scaling to AGI. We're taking basically
GPT-4 and we're doing all of this like
tuning and adding extra stuff on top of
it and around it and and measuring these
very narrow benchmarks. And that's why
people have this feeling ever since.
Like I
I guess they're better, but it's not in
an obvious way. It's better in specific
tasks or if I vibe code this it looks
better, I guess, and it seems more
narrow.
And so yeah, we're we're reaching an
This is a long answer to your short
question, but I we are reaching an
asymptote on
just pure fine-tuned LLMs as an engine
for AI. We're going to need more
architectures. It's going to take more
time.
Well, presumably
Chat GPT-6 could come out and oh, [ __ ]
they just blew through the entirety of
my prediction. This curve no longer
curves flat in the way that I thought
and [ __ ] this is
this is a different universe now. Yeah,
but that won't happen because they they
tried and it they don't know how to do
that.
So, it's not going to be just an LLM.
I mean, my my prediction of the future
of AI is I think what we're going to see
I think LLMs are very powerful, but what
we're going to see is much more of
hybrid models that are custom custom fit
to particular problems.
Where okay, this system
does this thing better than a human.
And in its guts, there's like a an LLM
in there, not a huge frontier model, but
one that's like souped-up and optimized
for this particular type of thing.
But there's also like five or six other
models and go There's an explicit world
model, there's a future predictor.
There's a policy network trained to
reinforcement learning to try to
evaluate situations to see what's good
or bad. There's a whole logic engine on
top of this that hooks these together.
These are what I think the the AI
systems of the future going to be like.
They're going to be bespoke and there's
going to be a ton of them. So, when we
get to the AGI, it's not going to be
GPT-7 can do everything you ask it as
well as a human. It's going to be a
world in which there's 10,000 different
AI products, and you realize
everything I can think of now, there's
some product out there somewhere that
can do this better than humans. Just
like there's AI that can play chess
better than humans. There's a different
AI that can play Go better than humans.
There's an AI now that can beat uh
professional poker players at Texas Hold
'em No Limit. They're all different
systems with their own pieces in them,
and a lot of them have some language
models in them as well, but a lot of
other pieces as well. It's distributed
AGI. That's what it's going to be like.
We're just going to wake up one day and
say,
there's fewer and fewer things
where we say humans can do this better
than computers. And it's a different
model than HAL 9000. There's one giant
It's a really inefficient way to imagine
solving this problem. If we just have a
big enough language model, it's going to
do all activity, it's going to power all
agents, it's going to automate all
systems.
That really doesn't make sense. I think
it's going to be a much more distributed
path towards AGI and AI.
Given
what AI can and can't do, and what the
quality of work is that it puts out at
the moment,
what is some good advice for somebody
who wants to
work against the weaknesses that are
going to be exposed in other people
because of their reliance on AI by
avoiding it themselves or by using it
appropriately, what would you focus on?
Because
>> Yeah. again, it seems to me like
quantity is
easier to achieve than ever before.
Quality is going to be rarer. That
inertia, getting the project off the
launchpad, the blinking cursor of the
blank page.
Yeah.
>> Where Where should people focus their
time and their attention in order to
capitalize this?
I think you need to begin thinking about
the feeling of cognitive strain
the way that, you know, a weightlifter
thinks about the burn of a muscle or a
runner thinks about burning lungs as a
thing that is uncomfortable in the
moment, but man, I'm excited about this
feeling because it's I'm getting
stronger.
You got to make yourself really
comfortable thinking hard. That is the
differentiating factor. I mean,
obviously I've been saying this since
oh, 10 years now. But that's that's even
more now going to be the differentiating
factor, right? And if you talk to
athletes, they're like, this is like
Schwarzenegger in Pumping Iron talking
about pump and that's a really painful
what he's doing actually, right? Like
lifting the the the level of weights
that the physical pain he's in is high
and he compares it to an orgasm, right?
Because if you're a weightlifter, you're
like, oh, that pain
is directly translating to more strength
and more muscle mass. You got to think
that same way about your brain. You
cannot flee
cognitive strain. You have to think
about it in a knowledge work cognitive
age, that is the feeling of my brain
getting more capable. Yeah, I want to
seek that out. Let's go get it. Let's go
get some, right? Like I want to this I'm
nope, bring my focus back to this thing.
I'm going to try to push this through
and then when you're done, be like, oh
man, I exhausted my brain. That's
awesome.
That was like a that was like a really
good cognitive workout. Mhm. So, don't
while everyone else is using AI to run
away from strain, you should be the
person running for it because especially
in the American context, I mean, the
knowledge economy is now a massive
portion of our GDP
and the knowledge economy itself is
shifting more towards uh cognition
intensive work. So, you know, knowledge
work can capture anything where you're
not building things. But now, all the
lower level knowledge work is being
outsourced or automated. A lot of it has
been replaced over the last 30 years by
software. We don't have support staff
and assistants and secretaries like we
used to because well, you can use
Microsoft Word and email. We don't need
separated people. Uh and so, the the
work that's left in our economy, the
knowledge economy, has been getting more
and more cognitively demanding.
And so, the number one skill is I'm used
to straining my brain learning hard new
things and maintaining focus. That's
what I would train.
That's so good. I I I
really really agree. And it's so The
funny thing is that's why I
asked at the top if you just felt like
[ __ ] Cassandra
because each subsequent
development in technology makes this
more important. Uh Yeah. I do There's
always going to be that seductive
whisper in the back of someone's mind
that well, yeah, but I can work faster
with AI. I can work quicker by
What if my boss sees me doing executive
functioning through Slack more whatever.
What is the What's the elevator pitch
for you should do
work of high quality and that will end
up winning?
You have to think about employment
ultimately
it's a marketplace. There's a lot of
obfuscation and fog and smoke but it's
ultimately a marketplace, right? Uh
you're paid money
in exchange you produce things that have
economic value. That's what makes that
exchange make sense.
There is not ultimately an underlying
economic value
to the coordination activities by
themselves. There is no actual economic
value to the speed of your Slack
responses or the number of meetings you
go into or the number of like
bullet-pointed emails with those sort of
ChatGPT emojis that you put out. That
itself doesn't generate economic value.
The stuff that does in knowledge work
almost always requires you mastering
hard skills and applying them through
concentration. And ultimately that
shakes out. There There's only so far
you can get or so far you can hide being
busy
because busyness can't be monetized.
Mhm. And you know, of course you can
create a smoke for a while. Like I don't
know, like, you know, uh Chris seems
like productive, I guess. Like he's
always on these emails and this and this
and that. But if you're not actually
producing things that have economic
value, like ultimately that catches up
to you. Your opportunities narrow,
you're going to get found out at some
point. Where if you do the other thing
if like, no, I'm creating stuff that is
rare and valuable. It's unambiguously
uh has value in the marketplace. You
write your own ticket. Like what? You
want to have a business where you work
half the year, you can do it. You want
to get paid a huge amount of money, you
can do it. You want to like work for a
company, but you all you choose when you
come in the office and you declare like
I don't want to do meetings. That's
actually a thing by the way. I talked to
a marketing team at one of the major
tech companies not long ago and they
said, "You know what?
We're in the sales side
and they're like our group, the sales
group, we are exempt from meetings
because they can directly monetize, oh,
you brought in this many dollars.
We can see it. And if you're bringing in
dollars, they're like you can do what
you want. And they could also see if we
make you go to meetings, those dollars
go down. So like forget the meetings for
you. Everyone else where there's not a
clear number where they can see how much
value you're bringing like oh, you
better be there in the meetings.
>> I I've dude, I've I've always thought
this. The the the
big problem that most people have that
doesn't exist in the world of sports
stars. If you're a sports star,
everything that you're doing is to
facilitate performance and performance
is very tightly bounded and it's
quantifiable. If you're a weightlifter,
that 300 kilos is 300 kilos. You either
pick it up or you don't pick it up. And
your sleep and your recovery and your
nutrition and your hydration and your
game tape and your technique work and
your S&C and your body work and massage
and soft tissue and all of that stuff
combine to this output. It's a very,
very sort of single ordinating
principle. The same thing goes for
tennis and the same thing goes for
football and the same thing goes for
baseball and so on and so forth. You do
not perform well, you begin to
scrutinize all of the contributing
elements that that come toward that.
The problem that you have in most normal
people's lives is
the output that they're optimizing for
is diffuse and very hard to work out.
It's well, I want to be a good
father, but I also
want to perform at work and I you know,
and I I do Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in the
evening time and my wife makes me go
dancing and I want to be engaging at a
cocktail party. Okay.
Uh well,
first off, that's a lot of things. It's
not a single ordinating principle. And
secondly, define to me the lineage
between your disrupted sleep last night
and your poorer performance around the
dinner table or in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
or whatever.
The diffuse thing contributes because
you inevitably have to make trade-offs
from one thing in order to do an to do
another.
But also, it's just hard. It's hard to
work out how your performance is
performing. And this is the same in
the work life. The
perfect example, the sales people, we
just know if we do make you do this
thing, we lose that thing. And that
thing is more important than this thing.
It would be like if for some reason
sports stars were being encouraged to
stay up late, you go, "Well, we know if
we make you stay up late answering
[ __ ] Slacks,
your performance in the game the next
day decreases." But for most people,
there's this
implicit assumption that part of what
you do is the contribution to the
strategy and the operations and the the
executive function culture and so on,
which means that you forget what you're
there for. I think people have forgotten
what they're there for. What what what
am I supposed to be here at work doing?
What is my out my my outcome goal?
There's so much fat
in the Amer- American knowledge work
sector right now. Right? Cuz it
we're so wealthy and there's so much
money being slung around that we can
have whole organizations where most
people don't even know how they're
directly connected to producing that
value and they could just be doing email
all day or whatever, right? It's so
inefficient. But there are, I mean,
there are plenty of knowledge work areas
where people don't put up with a bunch
of this nonsense and it's all areas
where it's very easy to quantify Mhm.
your production. I I did this essay a
couple years ago where I did a
reflection where I said, "God, almost
every thought I've had in my books
all came out of my experience as a grad
student at MIT. So, I was at the the
theory of computation group in the
computer science department at at MIT.
They don't call it a department, but the
theory of computation group in the CI CS
lab at MIT, which is like a group the
professors there. The students we
weren't like this, but the professors
were super geniuses. Like literally
Turing award, Turing award, MacArthur,
MacArthur, Turing award, Dijkstra prize,
like
smartest people in the world. And it was
incredibly clear if you were successful
or not. What major theorems did you
prove in the last few years? That's it.
That's all that mattered, right? And
that required a lot of thinking. So,
they were terrible with email. They had
no interest in social media. Uh
meetings, like if you're trying to throw
meetings at them, they would just ignore
you, right? I I wrote about this in Deep
Work even and and people pushed back. I
was like, this is what it's like in that
world. If you send someone an email in
this world, like one of these
professors, and they're like, "Ah, this
isn't This is ambiguous. You kind of
didn't word this well, or I don't really
want to do this." They just ignore it.
Like, that's on you, buddy. Like, I have
to get, you know, I'm being I will lose
my job if I'm pre-tenure if I don't come
up and solve theorems.
And they put up with no nonsense. And a
lot of that actually infused the my the
book Deep Work is like, you know what? I
came of age in an environment where all
anyone cared about was focus, and
everything else was secondary. It's like
athletes, just like you said. If this is
getting in the way of my launch angle
going down or my batting average
adjusting, I'm going to I'm going to
change it. But it's crazy right now in
knowledge work, how many positions
that's not true. But what I advise
people then,
get in a position where that's true.
Mhm. Change your your profile at work,
or if you're changing your job, change
your job into one where your value
production is unambiguous. Now, this is
a double-edged sword. Cuz it swings both
ways.
>> anymore. You can't hide anymore. But if
you get in the one of those situations,
and then you do the cognitive work,
I know how to focus, I build the skills,
I apply the skills, I'm not afraid of
cognitive strain.
You're in the absolute best position in
our economy, right? You can write your
own ticket, but you have to be willing
to go into a a circumstance of like,
this is the only world I know. Academia
is
what did you publish? That's all that
matters. It's all we care about. What
did you publish? Book writing?
How many copies did your last book sell?
That's all that matters. There's no, you
know what though? He answered our
publisher emails so quickly, so let's
give him another deal, folks. No, it's
exactly how many dollars did you make us
last time? That's what we care about,
you know, for the next time. So, it's a
scary world
where you're being held accountable.
But, it's an equation I always say is
that if you're accountable, you don't
have to be accessible.
If you're like, I can point to this is
the value I produced and I'm killing it
for you,
then I don't answer emails, I don't go
to these meetings, I don't do 50 sort of
things. You can get away with almost
anything you want. So, I think that's
more people should make that move,
especially in the AI age, I suppose.
More people should make that move
towards like, hey, hold me accountable
and then do the work to actually show
up. It makes your life so much, it's
such a better way to go through
knowledge work. You get away from that
hyperactive hive mind, brain melting,
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modernwisdom.
Let's say that you're in an organization
that was small enough that you could
actually enact some change. Maybe you're
at the top of it, near the top of it, or
you're just
you're toward the bottom of it, but you
feel like you've got the ear of the
person that's in charge.
If you were to say, we've got the
classic
diffuse, hive mind, pseudo productivity
malaise, like they did the the ambient
soup that everybody's swimming in.
How would you
what would you do? What would you How
would you rework the internals of an
organization that still needs to
communicate, obviously, there has to be
coordination, people aren't working in
silos, there is going to be inevitable
communication and coordination that
needs to happen.
How how do you
survive the modern world? What What
would you propose? How would you
restructure things? Yeah, I mean, I
would do a few things. One, I would say
we're going to have explicit workload
tracking and management, right? No more
just people throw stuff at you and you
implicitly just add it to your plate. We
want a place where we write down what
everyone's working on. And we can see
it. And now we can start talking about
things like what is an ideal WIP? What's
an ideal work in progress limit for an
individual? How many things do we want
someone working on at the same time
before that curve starts to go the other
way. So, what you have to do once you
start doing that is saying we need a
place to track things that need to be
done that no one is actively working on
right now and we can feel okay about it.
So, I would definitely want to set up
where where things enter into our radar
if this needs to be done.
There's a place for that to go
and to be stored.
Where it's no one
>> it's like an organizational getting
things done inbox.
>> Yes, and it's not on anyone's plate.
Because here as soon as you are
responsible for something, it generates
email, Slack, and meetings. So once it's
on your plate, it begins to spin off
administrative overhead. And so
productivity they call it the overhead
tax. That gets spun off as soon as it's
on your plate. So
everything by default goes to a team
plate. No one's working on it. Then we
keep track of from that plate as we move
things to people's individual
responsibilities, we have like I don't
You should do three things at a time.
That's it. And when you finish
something,
you can pull something else in.
So do a small number of things fast and
well and then keep bringing things. So I
would definitely do that. Uh the second
thing I would do is I would say no more
hyperactive hive mind.
Um if you send a message that requires
more than a single message in response,
that should not happen over digital
communication.
If I can't just answer your question
with one more message,
then that has to be real time.
Now we can't have that turn into an
explosion of meetings. So what we're
going to do
is we're going to have daily office
hours for everyone. So there'll be a
daily time where everyone knows they can
call you or walk to your office or
whatever and go through a bunch of
things with you real quick instead of
sending emails. We're going to have
morning stand-up meetings within the
teams for sure.
Who's working on what this morning?
Who needs what from who to get that
done? Go do the work.
We're going to have uh so we'll we'll
definitely do those as well. We might
throw in phone hours. It's a new idea
I'm thinking about where you say, "Look,
there's a longer period of time." Like
maybe all afternoon where you can always
call me if there's something that's so
urgent you can't wait till the next
office hours. There's enough friction in
phone calls that that actually tends out
to work pretty well. Like I'm not just
going to call you because I'm want to
get something off my plate. I won't call
you unless it really is serious. So I
would I would do that as well. And then
I would say, "Okay, what ongoing work
does this not work for?
What type of projects do we work on on a
regular basis where this isn't working
because it it's too long uh to have to
wait till the afternoon is a problem? I
say, "Great, let's identify those and
for each of those let's build a
protocol. Here is our protocol for
collaboration on this type of work." And
however that's going to work, but it's
like the information goes into this
spreadsheet and then whatever, someone
checks it in the morning, they move
things to shared files. I don't know
what it is, but whatever it is that
prevents us to have uh ad hoc
unscheduled serotonin isn't necessary.
So, explicit workload management I would
have uh
this rule of no hyperactive hive mind. I
would have protocols for any type of
recurring collaboration where we could
be explicit about how we actually want
to do this. And then I would have a
culture of talking about deep work and
concentration like a tier one skill.
How's it going?
Uh how many deep work hours did you get
in this week? Are you happy about that?
What was getting in the way of that? Did
you have a particularly good session?
Tell everyone else about it. Like what
worked?
Oh, I see. You you you did music. You
have a different look. Oh, let's all
think, you know, hey, here's a good idea
that we can borrow. Make deep work
culturally
something you talk about as like this is
a a tier one skill that we're really
proud about. You do those things.
You're going to 2x your profitability.
This is the thing that's always
frustrating me about these ideas is like
you could make more money if you do it,
but that's
it's really hard. Those changes I just
talked about
it's hard. There's friction, there's
personalities, and this is the thing I
really underestimated when I wrote those
books. Mhm.
The way we work now is like a uh uh a
low energy point, right? It's like the
easiest possible configuration of work.
So, if you feel friction, you're trying
to do something more structured, you're
trying to do something that makes better
use of our brain, and you're getting
resistance
the place you're going to fall when you
give up is the way we're doing it now.
So, it's not arbitrary, I've realized.
This hyperactive hive mind, let's just
figure things out on the flow, no
workload management. It's not arbitrary.
It's the low energy. It's like this
local minimum.
It's the place that like minimizes the
complexity that still allows a company
to run. And I think that's why we keep
falling back. In mathematical terms,
it's a suboptimal Nash equilibrium. It's
not the optimal way to work together,
but no one person can leave it and make
their situation better. It's a low
energy state. It's a It's an attractor.
It's a local minimum in the utility
landscape, whatever mathematical
metaphor we want to use. And so it's
it's not arbitrary. I was like, "Oh,
it's like a law of work physics. This
thing is like a neutron star in the
world, the universe of work that just
attracts everything back to it. And it
takes a huge amount of energy to escape
its pull. That's why I think we've had
so much trouble
uh solving this problem
even though you would make more money if
you did it.
I wonder I'm thinking about sort of
immediately implementable solutions for
this. I get the sense that you could
probably tell people
we don't use Slack
before 1:00 p.m.
Like nobody is to post in Slack before
1:00 p.m. Because that
you can ring if it's SOS emergency
scenario, you can just call somebody. We
just don't use it. And then it means
that everybody knows that they should
not be doing that it's a company-wide
deep Well, I mean, look, are there going
to be some departments? HR, for
instance, probably would be used. But
your job is your your your job is HR up
you're in the PR department or something
like that. Your your job is actually
about comms. Uh but if you're in
marketing or if you're in accounting,
something like that. Okay, sit down and
do your [ __ ] work. And up until a
point, what do you make of intermittent
fasting for communication company-wide?
Yeah, it works. Especially though, what
really makes that more sustainable is if
you have that quick morning stand-up on
the team scale at the beginning of the
day
where everyone says, "Here's what I'm
going to be working on during these
morning hours.
Here's what I need from each other to
make progress on this." So, you you what
would have unfolded over Slack and
email, you're doing in 10 minutes.
So, you say, "Okay, here's what I'm
working on this morning. I'm working on
the the new white paper.
Here's what I need though. I need those
figures from you.
Can you get When can you get them to me?
By 9:30? All right, you're going to get
them to me by 9:30, and I need those
quotes you promised. Can you get Just do
that right away? Okay, so I You all know
what I need from you. Okay? Now, I'm
going to put my head down and write that
report. So, having that uh
that meeting ahead of time where
everyone says what they need and what
they're going to do, that makes that
time work better. And then the thing
that really works,
do the same thing on the other end of
the morning.
All right, you said you were going to
work on this, this, and this.
What happened?
So, there's accountability on the other
end. You can't run away from, you know,
if you just went on email and social
media, like, "Well, wait a second. I
thought you were going to write the
white paper."
>> Yeah. And if other people flake, they
don't send you the figures, they don't
send you the quotes, you're like,
"I got stuck, man. I never got this."
>> Cal, Cal didn't Cal didn't do what he
said he was going
>> there in the same room, and they're
like, "Oh, okay, I get it. I get it. I I
can't just
ignore stuff, right? Like, I actually
have to do it." I think that's a great
idea. I think I think something like
that works well if you put that
accountability
uh before it, and you put it after it.
That scares people, by the way, though.
That That really does scare people uh
because you actually have to do the
work.
And this is the thing with
really social media and smartphones
killed us way worse. AI is going to make
this worse.
But that was the big inflection point uh
in terms of losing our comfort with
concentration. That got really bad once
we got algorithmically optimized
content, and we really got used to that.
And so, it's scary. If you just go to a
company and say, "Here's the new plan,
boss.
Uh we're going to have a meeting in the
morning. You got to tell me what you're
going to do for the next 5 hours, and
then you got to do it, and we're going
to check in after that 5 hours and see
how it went."
That's a nightmare for a lot of people.
That is like, oh God, I don't know what
I'm going to do. I I agree. Um I get the
sense that a nice way to introduce this
would be, look,
everybody's brain here has been turned
into slop.
Everyone. No one is able to do their job
as effectively as they should. So,
you are expected to do the work, but the
reason that we do the pre and post is
not to whip somebody into performance
review, it's to give you accountability
cuz you don't look like a tit in front
of your co-workers. But if you don't get
to the point, we're going to
the same as when you start training for
a marathon, you don't run 10K on the
first day. You will titrate the dose up
and over time, you know, week one will
permit some [ __ ] and week two will
permit a bit less [ __ ] and week
three, we're all in it together and this
person's pulling ahead. They're really
like the hyper responder, you know,
they're making loads of gains in the
focus gym and other people are moving a
bit more slowly. Okay, what is it that
they are doing and so on and so forth.
But imagine that, imagine if you if you
had a company-wide
um focus initiative where people would
just, okay, we're going to move
together. Everybody is going to focus on
focus. And um
interesting around the AI thing.
So, George, my housemate's writing a
book at the moment. Uh do you know Cold
Turkey? Do you have used Cold Turkey? I
know about it, yeah. Yes, yes, it's a
Yeah, yeah, it's a
website limiter, app limiter for
MacBook. We've been using it for a a
decade. Um his
his Cold Turkey went rogue and um
just kept shutting his browser down
even though he wasn't trying to access
the thing that he wasn't supposed to. It
said he needed to install it. It was a
nightmare.
Uh and here's a conversation between him
and his AI. Uh Cold Turkey has gone
rogue and I need to remove it. Please
tell me how to delete it from terminal.
And the response the response is, "I'm
not going to help you bypass it, George.
This is exactly the scenario you set it
up for. You're 2 days in. The book is
waiting. Close the terminal and write."
>> [laughter]
>> He's replying and said, "No, it's got a
bug, so I can't get on calls." He's like
pleading with his own AI cuz he's
obviously put in the instructions, "Be
rigorous with me. Be tough with me. Tell
me that I should be getting back to
being focused when I start to go off
task, do the thing." And that's a an AI
equivalent of what you're talking about,
which is this
supervisionary
oversight commission thing, but he his
just happens to be based in silicon
instead of another people. So maybe AI
will help us. We it can basically
chastise us. Like
>> Well, the problem is the problem that
you have with the AI thing is it's so
[ __ ] sycophantic all the time. Um
that it will tend to
bend eventually to what it is that you
want. Yeah, but no one believes that the
chatbot interface is the future of AI.
The boosters, the the skeptics, the
moderates,
there's there's an emerging consensus
that we're going to look back at this
current moment where we interact with AI
by typing into a chat window.
That that's going to be like
the Usenet newsgroups of the beginning
of the internet. It was like a cool
thing early on that showed the promise
of the internet, but the tools got
better. There's better ways to make use
of it. So there's the thought is in the
future AI is going to be more integrated
into more things. It'll be more agentic.
It'll be a lot not like having
conversations in English text, um but
deploying agents to do things. Maybe
with natural language, but also it'll be
more integrated in the software.
Individual tools will be more common. So
it'll be much more common, I'm in
Microsoft Excel,
and I'm like, "Can you sort row five by
this amount and cut out all columns
that, you know, have less than so many
values?" And it does that. It's going to
be That's what the interactions are
going to become like. And so this idea
of having a a singular anthropomorphized
entity through which you're having all
conversations,
that's almost like an accident of early
AI. I mean, OpenAI will tell you this,
that ChatGPT was supposed to just be a
demo of the type of things you could do
using the APIs into their language
models. It's like the type of tool you
can build that they make use of AI. And
then it caught them completely off
guard. And everyone wanted to use
ChatGPT and chat with it because it was
really cool. Um I don't think that's
going to be the form vector. So, I think
a lot of these issues we have now, like
this is weird, uh it's unsettling, we're
anthropomorphizing it, we're getting
parasocial relationships with the
agents, we're having
romantic relationships with them, we're
getting unsettled because seeing having
English conversation, we have a hard
time not simulating a mind on the other
end of this type of
>> why I shout at my chat GPT.
>> shout at it. I think a lot of this, 2
years from now, it's going to seem it'll
be super narrow, right? Because I don't
think uh just having a a this sort of
general-purpose oracle you chat with,
that's not the future. That's not what
people think we're going to be doing.
Why are people mad about Foro being
removed?
They were just ha- My understanding was
they were just happy with the fine So,
you you tune these things. The
conversational style comes from uh
post-training tuning session, where you
give it you've already done the
pre-training, which is unsupervised. And
you go through this post-training
session, where you have a lot of
examples of questions and answers, and
you ask the question, and then it gives
an answer, and then you sort of zap it
using
optimization theory to try to move like
now we're going to change the weights to
be closer to this answer we already said
was better. So, if you have a bunch of
examples of the way you want something
to respond,
and then you go through one of these
sort of zapping training sessions after
the fact, it'll respond more like that.
So, they just changed the way they were
doing that. And the thing they changed
to, people didn't like the tone that
created. So, it was just about what da-
literally like the data sets you're
using when doing this fine-tuning um
after you've done that big massive
pre-training, where it's unsupervised.
Talk to me about the role of quantum
computing and AI.
Minimal to non-existent.
Uh so, QAI is all just [ __ ]
Yeah, I'm not Yeah.
I mean, quantum computing is really
interesting. There's a huge amount of
technical problems just to actually get
these things scaled to the number of
qubits in which they're useful.
And there's a
there's a fallacy out there in thinking
about quantum computing that is
basically like a normal computer but
times a million. Yeah. Which is just not
the way these things function, right?
So, there's
only very specific problems you can
solve with a quantum computer because
you actually have to express the problem
in the language of physics in such a way
that you're creating what's known as a
wave function that when it collapses,
it's going to collapse to a
configuration that's the right answer.
Therefore, like implicitly searching a
large state space in sublinear time.
Only certain problems allow you to do
that. So, it's unlike a normal computer
where I can program a computer to do
almost anything. Quantum computers is
much more narrow what you can do with
it. Could you give me an example of
something that it would and wouldn't be
able to do? Well, like the the big
example, this is a guy who was at MIT
when I was there, Peter Shor, early on
was the one who figured out like, hey,
one of these complicated wave function
collapsing things you could do
could factor prime numbers. Or or uh
factor
>> Yeah, factor numbers to see to find the
prime factors, rather. Find the prime
factors of big numbers. Um
that's a really big deal because uh RSA
yeah, public public key encryption. And
ironically,
this this just goes to show how crazy
MIT was is
also at MIT is Ron Rivest, who I TA'd
for, who invented you see R in RSA. He
invented public key encryption. So, like
the guy who invented public key
encryption is there next to the guy who
figured out how quantum computers could
>> could maybe undo it. Undo it. Yeah. So,
it's kind of interesting. So, it's good
at that. Uh there's a lot of problems
that are based around um simulation of
quantum or physical physics systems.
And that's you you can simulate
quantum physics systems directly using
quantum in a way instead of having to
try to simulate them with So, it's very
good for that. There's a certain type of
search
it gets a little technical, but there's
a there's a certain type of uh search
that you can implement that has
applications. So, So, there are
interesting applications.
Um but I I the The I was beginning to
sense recently which made me worry is
that there was a sense of like um height
migration.
So people are getting a little bit
frustrated sort of like post GPT-5 of
like this isn't filling my need to have
something to be in you know, a
technology that is going to change
everything. I love that concept and they
begin sniffing around, okay, but what if
we just
quantum somehow
will unlock AI and solve all these
problems we're having. I think it's way
more complicated than that. There are
narrow applications of these particular
things that might have some AI
application. Um but you can't like
run an LLM on a quantum machine and now
it's a billion times better. That's just
not how it works. So quantum's
interesting. It's just really hard. The
problem is that errors multiply. I mean
that the
make these qubits, these uh these
quantum bits they use for these
algorithms, it's incredibly complicated.
You have There's different ways to do
it, but in some ways you have laser
beams in a super cool chamber holding
like a a particle in a very careful
state and what it generates errors and
then the errors add up with other errors
and it's after you make enough of these
things then then the errors
they swamp out of control. It's a really
you know, it's
>> you're telling me that the the
the [ __ ] M6 chip in the MacBook Pro
is not going to be a quantum one. It's
not going to be the Q6 chip. It's not.
In fact, I I was I'm now I want to know
what QAI is. What is QAI? You mentioned
QAI. QAI quantum quantum AI.
Yeah, but I mean is there a particular
product or just people talking about
quantum's going to just make AI better?
Yes. Yeah, there is. Um I have a a
friend who I train with. It's like it
This is like You know what I love? Some
of the people that I love the most are
the ones who you wouldn't predict uh
have the life that they do. And there's
a girl who trains at Lift ATX on a
Saturday.
Lovely girl. I've trained with her a
bunch of times. Real cool. Boyfriend's
cool. Like does fitness modeling. Super
hot. The long hair. Lift. The big All
the you know, like but super strong. All
the rest of the stuff. Like feminine as
well.
Quantum computing degree.
Like works in works in works in quantum
computing. and she was telling me about
quantum AI and she was telling me about
Q QAI as it's referred to and it's a
burgeoning field supposedly. Unless
she's lied to me, unless she's totally
[ __ ] lied to me.
>> Yeah, I'm curious what they're working
on.
UT Austin has
good quantum theorist. Look, I'm
searching for it. A guy I knew from IT,
they they hired him away there. Let's
see, quantum
quantum AI merges quantum computers
machine learning to process
high-dimensional data faster than
classical systems.
Now, they're working on it, but I don't
know
I don't know how that's going to work,
basically. All right, well.
>> So, I don't know what they're working
on, but
it's not something that that you hear a
lot in computer science circles yet. So,
maybe they'll have some breakthroughs.
It's worth looking at, but I don't know
how that's going to work.
Okay, uh
one of the other elements, I guess, of
that people
struggle with when it comes to deep
anything uh is learning, the process of
learning.
Talk to me about the mechanics of TP
keeping a a deep reading habit alive.
Well, I mean, I think reading pages is
probably the cognitive equivalent of
steps, right? So, if you're a 10,000
steps-a-day person, it's like this is
just like a baseline to make sure that
like at least my physical systems are
being used, you should have a a page
count. 25 pages a day, 20 pages a day
uh of reading a book.
It just is like getting those cognitive
steps in because I I think we recognize
more and more
reading I would say it's a cheat code,
but it's it's better to think about it
as like
reading is the thing that formed the
modern brain.
And I'm like I'm more and more convinced
about this. I've I've a book idea I'm
working on now where I'm sort of
exploring this idea. Uh
the brain before we had the dealithic
revolution, it's it was the same
neurons, right? 15,000 years ago that we
have right now, but if we go
pre-reading, those neurons were doing
the things they were evolved to do,
which is very much about like the visual
system and the audio system, and we
could communicate through spoken
language, and that's fine. And then we
invent reading.
This is This is not something that our
brain is evolved for. So, in order to
read, we have to go through this this
sort of excruciating process of learning
to read, in which what you're doing is
actually rewiring sections of your brain
to connect in ways that they weren't
originally meant to connect to. So,
we're we're reforming our brain when we
learn how to read, and we develop what
Maryanne Wolf calls deep reading
processes, where you've now yoked
together
different parts of your brain that don't
normally work together, that can now
have to work together in order to
understand written text.
Once your brain is wired to do that,
it can If you reverse this and write,
you can generate much, much more
sophisticated thoughts than you can if
you haven't done this wiring, and your
understanding of things,
the complexity of what you can
understand when you have this new
rewired brain, that also really goes up.
So, reading is like it's not just oh, I
get stronger in my brain. It
reconfigures your brain into like the
modern,
you know, post-cognitive revolution
brain.
Okay. What Why is it important to read
physical books? Then what what what is
lost if I read Substack? I know that
you're a fan of Substack. I I love
Substack. I think it's fantastic. Uh
What's the difference between reading it
on a laptop versus a phone versus a
Kindle versus a physical piece of paper?
Well, there's two different things going
on here. There's medium and content
type. Um like so, if you're reading a
book in a a physical book, or you're
reading in a Kindle, um
it doesn't matter, right? I mean,
they're both actual physical medium.
Like, the way that the the Kindle is
actually a physical experience. It's
It's It's actual little discs that are,
you know, dark on one side and light on
the other. And to make a page, they have
little electrical impulses, and you
shock the disc you want to turn, and you
don't shock the ones you don't want to
turn. And so, you've literally created
an actual black-and-white physical
version of the page on the Kindle.
You're not unlike a a computer screen or
a TV where it's light being emitted,
there's no light being emitted. It's
physically that's the page. It just
created a new physical page that has
text on it. That's why you have to
actually have a light on a Kindle to
read it. Um so it it's just a page that
reconfigures itself into a new page. I
love e-ink technology. I think it's
really cool. Uh content type the issue
is, I mean there's a lot of this
research we've known since the '90s. A
lot of this is captured in
um the best book on this would be uh The
Shallows. Nick Carr's book The Shallows.
When we're reading something like a
webpage or Substack, for whatever
reason, uh we skim much more
aggressively. That's the main issue. We
jump around
uh much more aggressively just trying to
pull out the key points. And I think
that's all just acculturated, right?
Like you can sit
and read like if you print out a
Substack article and sit in the library
and you read it carefully,
it's exact same thing as reading a book.
It's exact same thing in in in in sense
of the experience. On screens we tend to
skim around more.
The other advantage of like a book that
was actually published versus like a
post you see online, it's just better
thought through.
Right? So when you write a book, you
spend a couple years on it. Like you're
really
uh you spend a couple years crafting the
book and you might have been based on a
lifetime of thinking about this topic.
And so you take your time when writing a
book and it gets edited and re-edited
and you go back. Like I'm writing a book
now.
I've been working on it off and on for
like three or four years. I've rewritten
this book like three times.
It it's like this isn't right. This
isn't clear enough. It's, you know, and
so when you go through text that has
been that carefully thought through and
structured, that's also you just get a
different experience cuz the pieces
click together at different scales and
it just uses your the you build in your
brain these intricate interlocking
pieces that all hook together and it's
beautiful and you get that aha moment
feeling. There's an actual physical
endorphin rush you get in your brain. Um
so I you know, I think reading
smart books written by smart people that
took a long time to write.
That's your calisthenics for your brain.
It it literally changes your you're a
smarter person if you do that versus if
you don't.
So good. I have to say
reading full-length books has been uh
the volume that I do that has been
decreased over the last few years
largely because of Substack. So uh
there's an extension for Google Chrome
called Push to Kindle and if I press it
Yeah. article appears on my Kindle
because I don't like reading on my phone
and I don't like reading on my laptop
probably for the reason that that you
said.
But when I think about it it very much
is
uh running downhill because
what's the longest Substack that you're
going to read? 20 minutes? Maybe 25 25
minutes a [ __ ] long article. Yeah. Uh
and
maybe part of that maybe part of my
punch line for it is that I do get the
outcome, right? What what is it that I'm
looking to learn? Oh, I want to
find out from Steve Stewart-Williams
about sex differences in
mate
desire for sexual novelty, something
like that. Okay, well, I'll I will learn
the outcome
in the same way as I could feed myself
food that was just a cube of calories
and that would sort of give me the
caloric intake that I needed.
But what you're
presumably reading for apart from just
the enjoyment of reading it is to be
able to recall it and for it to be woven
into the broader
mental landscape that you've got which
actually probably means you need to
spend time under tension with it and
some of the
leanness and brevity that comes with an
article
uh
actually might work against you. Maybe
you need it to be said to you in five
different ways. Maybe you need the
author to meander off onto a story that
takes three pages
to explain about this guy who owned a
Ferrari and parked it outside of a hotel
so that you can then come back in and
each one of these is a little Velcro
latch hook that you can hook yourself
into and
yeah, I wonder whether I wonder whether
the reading uh uh
discriminating towards reading
stuff that is exclusively shorter form
results in the sense that I'm learning
lots, but if you are to actually do some
sort of scrutiny around that
>> Well, okay, how much of it can you
remember?
How long did you spend with this idea?
Did you spend long enough for it to be a
part of now your
mental models and the framework that you
Yeah, how much can you recall? That
would be an interesting an interesting
challenge. And the frameworks of
understanding are shallower just because
it's
less time to establish them. So like in
a sub
not a bad thing, but you know, what can
you do? You typically have like one idea
and like here's something that supports
that idea and here's maybe like a
different idea and here's why that
doesn't work.
And if that's all you're consuming
that becomes your mental model for how
knowledge is gained. And I think we see
a lot of this I mean think about
internet culture now is much more
conspiratorial and I don't mean in the
like sort of grand conspiracy theory
which it is, but not in not just in like
the grand conspiracy type of thinking,
but in the confidence. There's this
quick jump to confidence where you're
like that's wrong because of this and
boom and you think that like this is
like the slam dunk case or something
like that. That's a result of not
reading a lot of books. You read a lot
of books, you're like okay, this is way
more complicated. Uh Everything is way
more complicated than you thought it
was.
>> And there's probably a clear truth here,
but clear truths are more complex like
even the notion of what a clear truth
feels like
comes out of reading books, right? Like
and you understand oh, ultimately like
this person was right, but it's
complicated and like yeah, this is not
so clear-cut. And that this is like a
compromise. And this was really
important. And these factors were here,
but honestly, those factors aren't as
big as you think. And this factor really
was more important. And so, like, this
really was the right thing to do. So,
even like your notion of
what's true or what's not true or what
it means for something to be clear
is like different than if you're just
looking at boom,
slam dunk. I think it's a big problem
online. Both sides of the political
spectrum do this. Like, you you want
everything just to be this person is
just garbage and completely wrong. And
there's like this one simple thing I
know
that means you're completely wrong and
I'm completely right. And you're wrong
in like the worst possible sort of way.
And that is like such a sopholistic
sopholistic I'm saying the word wrong.
Solipsistic. Solip- Yeah, exactly. You
said it, right? I have to read more. Um
but it's sophistry, for sure. Right?
This idea of
this is how truth and argument unfolds
is like there's an obvious flaw that's
easy for me to grok,
which I guess now could actually be a
verb as opposed to just meaning to
understand. Also, I could literally grok
it, I guess.
Um and now it's clear that you're wrong
and I feel righteous, you know? And then
we go seeking that. And then we want to
simplify everything in the world to
you're just terrible and this person is
perfect and this idea makes the most
sense. And if you disagree with this
idea, it's because like you want to eat
children. And you know, it just becomes
it's a different under This is what I
think we get
wrong. It's not just like we're we're uh
we don't have the right information.
We've changed what our notion of truth
is because we're not exposed to the
complexity of truths. When you read a
not only a scholar like a smart case for
it, but then you read the arguments that
they confronted. And then you read
someone else that's arguing against
their point. And you're like, oh, okay.
I've I've seen the clash of like minds.
And now in that clash,
I like I kind of see what's going on
here. Like, yeah, the truth really leans
this way. And it's I feel really real
conviction in that because I've seen
like the best minds come at this from
either side and I really understand and
it's not cut and dry but ultimately like
this is the right thing to do. Um, that
was like a very familiar thing to people
and leaders like in times past where you
lose it if you're exposed to these uh
low resolution
copies, these low resolution
simulacrums, these easy to digest
pre-chewed versions of argumentation and
understanding. It just changes the way
your brain thinks about what true even
means. Yeah, there's an arc to sense
making that you kind of need to track.
And if you don't track it, you just
assume that answers appear. Yeah. It's
like no, no, they don't. Cal, you
[ __ ] rule. Let's bring this one home.
Where should people go to keep up to
date with everything you're doing?
Oh god. Uh
calnewport.com, I guess. My books are on
Amazon, my podcast
uh
Deep Questions on YouTube or wherever
you get podcast, newsletter at
calnewport.com, Deep Work.
Too many things going on now, Chris.
Deep Work is 10-year anniversary, I'm
excited about it. All new uh
I replaced all the blurbs on the back
with most of them are now organic. I
could just like people who have said
things about it without me asking them
to uh say it. So that's fun. And I have
a masterclass out on on this stuff, too.
So I don't know, it's everywhere. Too
many places. I feel too busy. For a
person who's a
digital recluse, you are everywhere. But
that's a function of focusing on
quality, not quantity. I can't wait to
speak again, man. This is this has been
so much fun. I appreciate the help.
>> Always a pleasure, Chris. Always always
always a pleasure to talk with you.
Congratulations, you made it to the end
of an episode. Your brain has not been
completely destroyed [music] by the
internet just yet.
Here's another one that you should
watch.
Go on.