Video summary
The "everything crypto rally" era has effectively ended, marking a significant shift from the indiscriminate gains of 2021 to a much more selective market environment. In those earlier days, investors could simply throw a dart at the board and expect returns, but current conditions no longer support such broad-based optimism where every asset class rises simultaneously. Instead of a universal altcoin season comparable to a hypothetical penny stock boom in the stock market, the focus has shifted toward rigorous analysis of adoption rates, fundamental utility, and specific project narratives. This new reality demands that investors become more discerning, as the vast majority of speculative assets will likely fail to sustain value, forcing participants to bail out when conditions become difficult.
To navigate this landscape, a diversified approach is essential, with portfolio allocation heavily dependent on an individual's risk tolerance. For moderate investors, the strategy involves anchoring the majority of holdings in Bitcoin, often viewed as digital gold, while allocating a smaller portion to large-cap alternatives like Ethereum, Solana, and Tron that offer established utility for stablecoins and payments. Aggressive investors might increase their exposure to these large caps and small-cap altcoins, whereas conservative investors may choose to hold almost exclusively in Bitcoin. The market has clearly decided on the role of these assets, moving away from the peer-to-peer transaction ideal toward a structure where only projects with genuine use cases or strong narrative backing, such as those in the payments and artificial intelligence sectors, are likely to survive and thrive.
When evaluating specific large-cap altcoins against Bitcoin over long periods, performance varies drastically, revealing that even popular names like Ethereum have underperformed significantly for several years unless entered at very low prices. In contrast, some smaller projects have surprisingly outperformed the market leader by aligning with powerful narratives like AI agents utilizing crypto payment rails without traditional KYC and AML restrictions. Projects such as Tron, which has shown consistent green performance across various timeframes, and emerging tokens in the AI space like BitTensor or Hyperliquid, demonstrate that success now relies on identifying specific themes rather than betting on the entire sector. Investors are encouraged to explore categories on platforms like CoinGecko to find top performers in areas like artificial intelligence, as these narratives are currently driving value forward more effectively than legacy assets that have struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin's growth.
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smarter investor. Right. Imagine,
imagine if everyone in the stock market,
like they just only focuses on stocks
and don't care about crypto. Imagine if
everyone who was more Degen just always
called for penny stock season. Like
everyone would just be like, shut up.
Like no, it that's not happening. Like
stop calling for it. There was a good
exchange today between me and Ben on NFA
live over on Guy's channel. So, just
take a listen to what we talked about.
So, I think you're just being being a
little diversified can can go a long
way. Yeah, and and and just to piggyback
on that, you know, what as far as like,
you know, what we used to get away with
in 2021, which was just throw a dart at
the board and it goes up. It's the same
thing with I mean people talk about an
altcoin season. Altcoin season is not
going to It's like it'd be it'd be like
saying this is stock season and
everything goes up. Now you have to take
a look at the companies, the P&E ratios,
you have to take a look at what's the
adoption is. I think that there's some
altcoins that'll make it. It just you
got to be super selective of what those
are and see the ones that are make that
are actually being used. I have my
thesis on that, but
Right. I I mean,
you just have to be a little bit more
smarter investor. Right. Imagine,
imagine if everyone in the stock market,
like they just only focuses on stocks
and don't care about crypto. Imagine if
everyone who was more Degen just always
called for penny stock season. Like
everyone would just be like, shut up.
Like no, it that's not happening. Like
stop calling for it. But it's like
because it happened like I'm not saying
it can't ever happen again, but we don't
have the current market conditions to
allow it to happen.
Um so, yeah, I mean it just Think about
it. Altcoins are essentially this
generation's version of penny stocks.
Mhm. Yeah.
Wise words. And doesn't that sound
ridiculous? Penny stock season? Well,
we're carrying over altcoin season for
every single type of play that we're
doing here and just not going to happen.
And like I talked about, it's going to
be some winners. But the vast majority
won't stick around to do it because it's
hard. And when things are hard, people
just bail. So, it really just comes down
to this. Bitcoin we know is digital
gold. I would like to see it more as
like peer-to-peer transactions, but the
market has decided what it is. Maybe
it'll revert, doesn't matter. Then
there's the large cap alts, like one
that I talked about, which are the best,
Binance, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, those
types of things. And I think for me,
those are the ones that I can get back
into or I'm actually perfectly fine
being in there right now. Then there's
mid small cap alts. And what it really
comes down to is for you is for what's
your risk tolerance. So, for me, I'm
going to mod I'm a moderate. Most of my
my revenue or most of my cash amount is
in Bitcoin. Then there's much more or
some more in large alts, roughly 20%.
Then small alts, it says 10%, but I
think it's much lower than that right
now. I want to say like 1 to 2%. So,
depends on what you want to do. Do you
want to be aggressive and want to do
like Bitcoin 50, large alts 30, and
small 20? Or do you just want to say,
you know what, I just want to be very,
very conservative and Bitcoin 90 to 100%
and maybe some large alts. And right now
it just depends because we are in one of
those bear markets. But I will remind
you that narratives really do move
things forward. And one of those
narratives I think will be payments and
AI. And the last one will be AI
payments. So, if we just take a look at
like these different types of projects
as far as payments, Binance, Ethereum,
Solana, Tron, these are good for the
stable coins, Tether and USDC. Now
there's a big talk about how AI agents
are going to be using the payment rails
in crypto because that's what they're
actually native for and they'll be able
to actually pay for things without KYC
and AML, which is what bots aren't
allowed to do right now. So, this makes
total sense. So, if you if you're on the
narrative of like payments, well, this
makes, you know, reasonable sense, but
which ones have done pretty well? This
is a chart which takes a look at Does it
bleed? Or we evaluate altcoins, even
large caps, to compare to Bitcoin. And
we can see that Ethereum, as much as,
you know, we hear about it and
institutions are talking about it, it's
been bleeding like crazy over the last 5
years. You have to go back 6 years to
actually be positive against Bitcoin
itself. And then of course there's one
for a month for 3.69, but 7 8 9 10, 10
is at 12% and if you got in like when
Ethereum was like, you know, 10 bucks,
great, you're up 200%. But as far as
like Does it bleed? Ethereum is one of
those big bleeders and it might do well.
I have a little bit of it, but what
about the other ones? What about
something like BNB? That seems like a
pretty good one as far as like payments
go. Well, we take a look at the
bleeding, it's not even that much
better. We can just see over 6 months, 1
year, and 2 year it's actually positive,
but 3 4 and 5, not so much. 6 and 7 and
8, yes, if you got in early, that's the
thing. So, as far as like Binance and
Ethereum, that's just one part of the
evaluation, but what about Solana? Maybe
that's the big golden goose. Not really
either. And again, you you're taking on
more risk and it's hasn't really
performed unless you got in 3 years ago
or 5 years ago or you got Solana when it
was a nickel. And then lastly, what
about one of my favorites, which was
Tron? This was actually quite
surprising.
Tron, even with Justin Sun, is actually
green across the board. You outperformed
Bitcoin, congratulations.
Kind of crazy, but then lastly, there is
a couple ones I'd like to to mention,
which would be something like Tao or
BitTensor, to see how that is gone
across as that's the new hot item. And
coincidentally, it's actually doing just
as well as Tron almost. And actually
more so. 3 months it's up 100%, 6 months
against Bitcoin is up 78. 1 year 62, 2
year not so much, but 3 year up 100%.
So, again, the narrative, AI,
that's pretty darn big. And then lastly,
there's one more to take a look at,
which would be
liquid
or hyperliquid.
How has that performed cuz that's all
about derivatives markets and 24/7 365
tokenization. And that one also is doing
quite well. So, if I had to to guess,
this is where I would go into. And if
you're kind of like lost and say, well,
what about, you know, the different AI
plays that are there? I don't know all
of them. Just go to CoinGecko, click on
categories, and then just
rearrange this by 7 days and see which
ones are top. Well, there is the top is
Forme Ecosystem. Memes will always
outperform some because they're just
gambling. But if you take a look at
number two, Artificial Intelligence, and
click on that, we can see that once we
get in there,
these are all the different plays,
Chainlink, Tensor, Near, ICP, Render.
And you can see over the last 30 days,
it's looking pretty good. And some of
these I've never heard of. But that's
what's going on. So, I just want to give
you a little quick information about
that. Let me know what you think about
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