The Bitcoin Bottom Is Already In — Here's the Data | 20 Hours to $200K ★

So with the big question is are things different? Is Bitcoin going to go to $1 million in the next month or so like Samson Mau has predicted or or are we just going to follow along in a four-year cycle? And anything else you want to talk about? So which one do you want to start with first? So it's a big question and as always I've come with a plethora of data just to give everyone paralysis by analysis just to try and cover from as many angles as possible. But we'll jump into first and foremost is this time different? Because I think a lot of people are looking at the Bitcoin price action and thinking, you know, it it's looking bullish, but we haven't had this, you know, traditional cycle that many people are anticipating. And I can share some data points that kind of go along with this, but from my perspective, I don't think this time is different at all. Yes, maybe we haven't had the time elapsed from the cycle peak that many were anticipating, but I think if you look at the onchain data of the amount of capitulation we've truly experienced. If you look at the almost time elapse from the initial price based capitulation to the secondary timebased capitulation because again bare markets are usually composed of two separate components. You had this initial massive spike to the downside, everyone panicking, and then usually a few weeks, a few months of kind of chopping and consolidating and really boring people out of the market. But again, if we look at the onchain data, if we look at the long-term holder percent in profit, we can see this bottomed out at exactly the previous two bare market levels. And I think a lot of people looking towards, you know, the seasonality, waiting for XY Z day, October the 6th, exactly a one-year bare market. Of course, that could play out. No one knows exactly what is going to happen. And I think it's best, of course, to work in probabilities. I think a lot of people are looking linearly thinking, I'm going to go all in on this day at this price, etc., when really it's it's more probabilistic science anytime you do this kind of analysis. But but looking at this type of data, looking at the long-term holder supply in profit, looking at the percent of UTXOs in profit, again, it's it was the biggest capitulation we'd experienced since 2015. Yes, the percentage draw down from the peak may have only been you know 52ish% something along those lines where many people were saying you know we haven't had this big 70 80 90% plus draw down but Bitcoin is is changing as an asset I think we can all agree that as institutions are here the volatility is diminishing to some extent there's kind of these passive flows coming in we're not as reliant on big retail influxes of FOMO and euphoria and greed coming in at market peaks now there's almost this kind of equity index style movement in the price action where it's kind of this more gentle grind to the upside the stepping price action and the downsides have been muted as well but again rather than thinking linearly in ones and zeros the way we've been trying to do things that look into Bitcoin is think in probabilistic terms so if you look at something like this which is the MVV quantile band something we've added fairly recently this is rather than looking at you know one buy zone or one sell zone if we look at the Bitcoin market as a probability. Where are we in relation to where we've historically been accounting for the diminishing volatility that we're experiencing? When we were at 54 uh $58,000, sorry, we were at about four or 5th percentile on this, meaning that about 95% of all of Bitcoin's history was at a higher valuation compared to the levels we were at. Now, did that mean we weren't going any lower? No, of course not. Did that mean that we couldn't bottom out in a few months time? No. But it meant that from our perspective we were getting pretty good value for money and the the asymmetric opportunity of strategically dollar cost averaging in at those levels seemed favorable to us. >> Yeah. Yes. And this is this is the big thing. So we take a look at this and we think ourselves okay it will it repeat or will it not repeat? But pro like you said Matt probabilistically I always say that Ron probabilistic these are the things that we should take take into consideration before we get left behind. So the probability of us doing the same thing is pretty high. We've seen this. But however, we should we should protect ourselves in either way. So Matt, let me ask you this. You're an investor. You're looking at these charts all day long. This is your job. This is your thing. What are you personally doing right now for and let's just stick with Bitcoin. We can get to to, you know, uh I don't name your memecoin later, but uh what are you doing right now with with Bitcoin itself? Are you just holding out or are you saying pro, you know, probabilistically this is looking pretty good? >> So, the way I like to approach the market is rather than again going all in or all out and I'm not an active trader or anything, I'm just trying to increase my Bitcoin stack as much as possible over the long term. Realistically, if you're in Bitcoin for the right reasons, which I'm sure many of the viewers are, the way I'm looking at Bitcoin right now is it's it's a 99.2% discount given the fact we're not at a million dollars yet. So the way I'm trying to look at Bitcoin is to try and find where I can, you know, get the best bang for because again a lot of people are blind dollar cost averaging in and that's absolutely fine. But if I see, you know, buy one get one free Satoshi's, I I want a little bit of dry powder to the side so I can, you know, really accumulate at those prices. So if again we look at kind of the bottoming range and topping range for Bitcoin, we recently had about 85 days where we were almost in within three standard deviations, three multiples of the ATR of the lowest closing price. So I was accumulating both BTC and MSTR at those prices because again the way that the data was kind of presenting itself and last time I was on the show we were talking about Bitcoin reaching the production cost the level of capitulation in terms of the spend output profit ratio all of these data points which showed that you know I think looking through one lens and not taking into consideration the the larger picture of things and another thing that we were looking towards is a lot of people again have this kind of arbitrary view that we're going to have a 80% % draw down and it's going to last exactly one year. But I think we can all agree that the the the bull market paints the picture of the subsequent bare market. So if we look at the logarithmic returns of the previous bull market, which again was underwhelming in terms of how much we actually rallied from the lows, the ratio between the returns and draw downs in every cycle have actually been very very consistent. So what we can do is apply those same ratios and it was actually projecting a draw down of about 56.2%. Now, we did this analysis way before Bitcoin had actually bottomed out. And we actually bottomed out about 58K, which was slightly more bullish, kind of our our bull case of somewhere around $59,000. >> But again, for this to be literally the worst bare market of all time, price would have only had to go to about 43 $44,000. So I feel that those predictions of you know 30k or or even 20k I've seen some people saying were really kind of you know outdated in terms of the understanding of of you know an asset that's gone from a few million dollars or billion dollars in market cap to a multi-t trillion dollar kind of sovereign state international pension funds accumulating this asset. And again on the on the seasonality argument a lot of people saying yes but we always have these one-year cycles we always have the h havinging event which causes this big bull market. And again to some extent I feel that that is true but I feel the impact of the Harding event is diminishing. You know we have 95 96% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist are already in circulation. I mean Michael Sarah alone is buying more than that. And people saying yeah but we always have a one-year bare market. And you know it takes 30 seconds to go well that one was 155 days. That one was 627 days. We have two out of the last four bare markets were one year and they were about 2 weeks apart. So, we have such a small sample size with Bitcoin and it is such a new asset that I I think a lot of people, you know, are still trying to find this holy grail indicator or looking at, you know, such a small sample size, trying to find patterns which are are really just noise. And again, looking into the question of have we really bottomed? Well, the two lines I've got on the chart right now, the 200 daily moving average and the short-term holder realized price, the average accumulation price for new market participants. And what we can see once Bitcoin convincingly breaks above these two levels in any previous bare market, you know, it doesn't hang around too long. People have have kind of lost touch with the fact that Bitcoin still is this, you know, tiny asset with this massive potential. So, if we actually overlay the fractals of all of the price action instances of Bitcoin breaking above these two levels, we can see within a 100 days, the the earliest instance was Bitcoin at $92,000 and, you know, the most bullish was $200,000. Now, I'm not saying that is going to be the case, but Bitcoin when we get to these levels once the the seller exhaustion has really come to fruition. I mean, we had the cold card hack, we had Marathon selling billions of Bitcoin, we had Riot pivoting, we had sailor selling, we had all of these terrible things, the Clarity Act getting delayed and price went up. Like to me, even from a fundamental ignore the data, who's left to sell at these prices? Who's looking at Bitcoin at $60,000, seeing all of these terrible outcomes and thinking, "Yeah, you know what? I think I'm going to wait for 50k." I mean, to me, it's that's picking up pennies in front of a steamroller and really missing the big picture. >> Yeah. And well said. And you know what? Like, there was a couple things that you said uh that I like. I'm gonna have to steal those. It's uh the buy one get one free Satoshi's. That's a good one. I'm going to steal that. And then discounted Bitcoin, of course, right? But then there was another thing you talked about as far as like getting in and layering in and percentages. Now, we just talked to Rob Art about percentages in and percentages out. When you're doing these these types of buys right here, is it because I am going to guess that you're not an all-in like I'm going to do one big huge hit here and then that's it. Is it how do you structure percentages as far as like your buys on a daily, on a weekly, on a monthly? How do you do it? >> So, good question. And I'm going to shamelessly shill my own Twitter account here because this is something that I took great pride in. >> As well you should, Matt. Exactly. >> Matt Crosby Pro if anyone fancies it. But I wanted to make sure that I wasn't just kind of saying we're doing these things and relying on the data. I really wanted to put the money where my mouth was. So I was showing in real time every single day. And the thing is the the thing I really value rather than saying, you know, I'm trying to accumulate x amount of Bitcoin, whatever, is I don't want to spend eight hours a day in front of the charts. I I I want this to be not only an outperformance in terms of monetary gains, but an outperformance in terms of how much time and effort I'm really having to put into the market. Now, I will say the little caveat to that is I love looking at Bitcoin data, and I'm basically a professional nerd. People pay me to do this, so I enjoy doing it anyway. But the way I was doing it, I I wasn't looking at the Bitcoin price. I I was waking up going about my day. And when I finally got to my desk, I was just buying X amount spread over a daily amount. I wasn't trying to, you know, make it too complicated, made it too difficult. I was waiting until we're in the bottom 20th percentile according to something like the MVRV quantile bands. But again, you could use the the 200 weekly moving average once we get within a few percentage of that. Once we get, you know, uh, significantly beneath the 200 daily moving average, looking at the Mayor multiple once we get within the production cost of Bitcoin, I mean, there's a million and one different metrics that showed we were incredibly undervalued. And again, I wasn't stressing too much about it. I was going in, you know, X amount every single day. Basically, as much capital as I had that I've been banking from when Bitcoin was at, you know, high valuations and from the paychecks that I get. And then, yeah, essentially it was good timing. I kind of ran out of money just as I'd practically accumulated as much BTC and a little bit of MSTR as I could. But yeah, I think a lot of people are really over complicating when it comes to Bitcoin. And again, like I said, if you're in this for the long term, trying to strategically look into every single dollar and percentage point here and there. I mean, the amount of times back in the day I was setting limit orders that, you know, the wick came just within a few dollars and, you know, rallied away and I didn't actually get my entry fill. I don't have the time for that. I'm just market buying, keeping it simple, x amount every single day, and just relaxing and enjoying the the newfound Bitcoin that I've managed to accumulate. >> I you know what, there's some there's a there's a beauty in that statement as far as I can't look at these charts all day. I can't take all this time. I have uh I got a couple brothers. They're both morons, but uh they're really good at just buying like just the basics of basic thing. And they're ETFs, that that type of stuff. They're not into crypto whatsoever. One's into silver, the other one's into Visa. And he got into Visa when he was like a kid, like in college. And he crushed it. And and I I asked him, I like, "Well, what's the conviction?" He's like, "Everybody uses it." And the silver, everybody is going to use that at some point. I was like, "That makes sense." I go, "Do you watch the charts? Do you take a look at the uh 50-day moving average or the sleeping moving average?" Like, "What the hell are you talking about?" And they have a great life, right? And they just travel. They have a good time. Again, both morons, but Matt, I I I think that that is a a great takeaway. The amount of information that you have there is fantastic. But then to just go, look, this is the stuff. This is where it is. It may go this way, it may go that way. Just don't over complicate things. I I I love it. I appreciate it. >> Yeah, 100%. And I actually have some really interesting data to share after you mentioned silver from some analysis I've done recently which I think people will find pretty interesting because again like we've been saying people saw the previous Bitcoin bull market and maybe were a little underwhelmed at how much Bitcoin's price ran up. You know everyone thought the ETFs are here sailor here. Literal nation states are buying Bitcoin. Why aren't we at a quarter of a million dollars, half a million dollars? What's what's the going on here? Well, I think Bitcoin was almost suffering from success to some extent. I think a lot of the OGs which previously relied on these big FOMO rallies to actually have sufficient exit liquidity to sell their hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of Bitcoin without crashing the market. Now you didn't really have to wait for that. Now you could sell directly to BlackRock, directly to these treasury companies. So I think the liquidity that these new fundamental inflows provided almost limited Bitcoin's upside potential. But if we look at where Bitcoin bottomed out in this most recent bare market, which is around a trillion dollar market cap, about $1.1 trillion market cap. If you look at silver, September 1st, 2022, also bottomed out at about a trillion dollar market cap. Now, silver isn't gold, you know, not many people look towards silver. Maybe your brother's excluded from this as a true store value asset. I mean, Bitcoin has this digital gold narrative, but realistically, a multi-t trillion dollar market cap is going to be hard to beat. But if we look at Bitcoin versus silver, silver went on a rally from 2022 to 2026 around $6 trillion. Went to a $7 trillion asset. Now, you also have to take into consideration that Bitcoin is a 247 market. So, it actually moves a little bit faster than most other asset classes. So, if you take into consideration the available trading hours for silver and Bitcoin and we actually apply the run that silver experience just a few years ago. Again, keeping in mind that Black Rockck aren't advising every single one of their investors to allocate 1 to 2% of their portfolios to silver, which they are now doing for Bitcoin. >> It experienced a nearly a 600% increase. >> Bitcoin has the potential to do that. And if it were to do that, then we would potentially bottom out. Again, keeping in mind we trade about 50% faster than silver in around October 2028. And if we look at the actual price targets for this, again, keeping in mind silver from wick to wick ran about a 6.93x, which would take Bitcoin to around $400,000. And again, these will sound like outrageous, outlandish price targets. >> But if Bitcoin peaked at the same market cap as silver, we're talking about approximately $340,000 Bitcoin, the same percentage of global capital, that 1.2 246%. Again, keeping in mind Bitcoin about $126,000 was about half a percent of global capital. Again, we're still talking about pretty big figures here. And again, keep in mind, we're talking about global capital, which is constantly expanding, currently around $560 trillion, but compounding about 8% annually. If we project that forward and say, well, what if Bitcoin can actually obtain just 1.25% 25% of global capital. Then again, we're looking at about a 5x from where we are today just to meet silver's market cap. Again, at the current price, it's about 2.3x, $180,000 Bitcoin. This isn't an outlandish thing. This happened in silver a few years ago for an asset that again, not many people are looking towards as, you know, their retirement plans. Bitcoin is now in that conversation. Bitcoin is actively being accumulated and is one of the most illquid assets with over 80% of the circulating supply held by long-term holders. I mean, if you look at the money multiplier effect, how many dollars actually come into Bitcoin to to actually move the market cap, it's somewhere about a 5 to6x, meaning if I buy $10 of Bitcoin, I'm actually moving the market cap up by somewhere between $50 and $60. And again, we can look at this via the long-term holder supply, the the increase in the market cap related to the increase in the realized cap. So, there's many many different ways we can look at this to to think that I think people are underestimating what Bitcoin can do in a in a relatively short space of time. So, yes, of course, I'm I'm biased. I work in Bitcoin, but I am very very bullish on the next few years where BTC could be. >> Yep. And you know what? It's it's a something it's a good exercise to see where things could go because that that is some people say well that's just opopium. Well, you know, I got to tell you when when when I would watch some of the old videos when I got in in 2017, I would see videos from 2013, 2014, and people were like, you know, at some point Bitcoin's going to be 10,000. They're like, this he thinks, and and like I would read the comments and like, and here we are. And then I remember a couple guys like Da Vinci would say, it's going to go to over a hundred thousand. And that was back in the day when people were like, that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. And now we're like, okay, that's the base case. So like when you talk about this, Matt, and see I don't see as like you're you're right. I don't see that Bitcoin depreciates massively. I mean, we have these pullbacks and things like that, but as long as governments, and that's all governments, it's not just America. As long as they keep printing money to debase the currency, the price will go up. And that's pretty much it. just just overlay the M2 money supply with the price of Bitcoin, with the price of the average uh real estate, uh with gold, silver, it doesn't really matter. It's just going to keep going up unless for some miraculous reason the government say, you know, we got to stop printing all this money. This is what we're doing. So, anyhow, >> exactly. I I I've said many times to bet against Bitcoin is to bet against sensible monetary decisions from global banks and policy makers. It's just like the most outlandish bet imaginable. So, yes, of course, I'm incredibly bullish on Bitcoin. Again, people will say this is outlandish. Gold in the same time frame went from around 101 trillion to nearly $40 trillion. This is 10 times the market cap of Bitcoin at its peak in just a few years. And if at some point we just see a small rotation out of that, then again, these are very realistic targets, I feel. And again, I I always think it's better to to react to the data rather than predict it because I feel like a lot of people may be sidelined waiting for, you know, this $30,000 in October price target or whatever it may be. Whatever you may think, you know, if the time comes for me to start maybe cutting back, rotating out with Bitcoin or at least scaling back on my dollar cost averaging when everyone's, you know, saying we're going to go to a million dollars, when everyone starts getting, you know, overwhelmingly bullish. I mean, it just happened in the most recent bare market. As soon as we get to $60,000 where everyone says I'm going to start accumulating, people think, you know what, we might go to 50. Uh, but but we might go to 40. It's going to happen in the next bull market. >> That's that's pretty much that's correct. And it's gonna it's gonna happen whether we like it or not. That's pretty much how it is. Hey, there's >> it's human nature. Yeah, >> it's human. That's this is this is why I believe that even all coins will pump because all we need is speculation and and a pinch a pinch of utility. And that's pretty much just take a look at uh Helium this uh last week. So before we say to to Matt and thank him for being here, there's a couple couple of questions which is a good one. This from CR. He says, uh, and this is a good one because there's two questions here. One is when you sell when you take your profits off off of Bitcoin, is it just sit there in the dollar in stables or how do you do it? And then CR says this is all about the method of buy, borrow, die. You buy Bitcoin, you borrow against it, you take out massive debt, and you spend that, and then you die, and then it just kind of goes away because unless it falls on your heads, which usually doesn't happen. So, Matt, do you believe in the uh in the buy, borrow, die or borrow against your Bitcoin to get into that or are you just like, you know what, I'm just going to sell and I'm going to pay some capital gains. That's pretty much it. [snorts] It's a difficult question and I know it's a copout answer to say it depends on your own personal circumstances but where I am capital gains has just increased to 24% which man is is uh real pain but in terms of what my plan is yeah it's it's annoying but in terms of what I do I'm not looking at I don't like to use the word sell I like to use the word rotate because realistically if I'm rotating into fiat currencies I'm going to be losing four to 6% a year in purchasing power so it may be a case that I rotate into traditional inflationary hedges like gold or real estate. But again, a lot of Bitcoin maxis will will dislike me saying this, but but realistically, cash to some extent is still king. I can't pay my bill bills in Bitcoin. And even if I could, would I really want to? Again, I know it's extreme to say I don't want to be the Bitcoin pizza guy, but I remember buying stickers back in 2017. I look at how much those stickers cost today and it's like I paid $300 for some stickers on a laptop I don't even own anymore. Like I I feel like having at least some kind of available capital is a nice a nice luxury to have. Now, if that is is a case where where you live you can spend your Bitcoin freely and you know you can spend and replenish then that's probably the best of both worlds where you can live somewhat on a Bitcoin standard but you can also kind of instantly and easily convert that without those capital gains taxes or or anything else along those lines in terms of borrowing against your Bitcoin. I feel like it's a great narrative and I think in certain circumstances it can be good, but I think a vast majority people are going to borrow against their Bitcoin at bull cycle peaks to think, you know what, I can actually get some free capital here, rotate into a house and I don't have to sell my Bitcoin. Well, if we get a 50% Bitcoin retracement, those loan repayments get pretty expensive quite fast. So, the best time to take a Bitcoin loan is actually around the bare market lows, but again, no one really wants to do that. it's kind of just causing excessive leverage. So, if it works for you, it works for you. Honestly, it's not something that I'm like immediately keen and looking to to implement one day. Do I want to live on a Bitcoin standard? Potentially. But again, I I think it's nice to to have these options available to rotate in and out of of different assets which are appreciating, whether that's, you know, high yielding stable coins, whatever it may be. But yeah, it I I hate to say it, but it is very dependent on circumstances. >> It is. And there's there's a couple things to break down. First of all, when you said that you bought stickers and you feel like 300 bucks for those, now that sucks. But I mean, look at the bright side. You're not a board ape yach club uh founder holding an NFT, which is essentially worthless. Now, that that's that's >> I didn't I didn't say I didn't do that either, Rob. >> Oh, no. Hey, you know what? We live and we learn. And speaking of living and learning, here's here's one of my mistakes. You said, and you were right. you're gonna take a loan against the real estate at the at the peak. And I'm like, damn it, man. That's exactly what I did. So, in 2021 when I first got to to uh Puerto Rico, which I got to tell you, you might want to take a, you know, think about because there's zero capital gains tax here. Just just going to put it out there. And what I did was in 20121, I took a loan out uh for a big, not the whole loan for the house, but a big chunk. And I collateralized my Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana. And I did that with Celsius. So, and everybody's groaning right now. And you're right. And this was at the peak. And then all of a sudden, like two or three months later, I get a margin call. Pay it. Another another margin call a month later. Pay it. I add Bitcoin to that piece. Then I'm traveling over in Europe. I'm in the UK and I'm traveling around because I was at the Coin Bureau conference. The good times. Good times. And I missed a couple calls. Liquidated. Boom. That's it. So when you get liquidated that becomes a capital gains issue now instead of a loan you own capital gains in that plus you just got liquidated for your Bitcoin which you were trying to sell which you sold anyhow. And then people say but Rob wait Coinbase is doing that right now. They are actually uh you can put it use it for a and that is for a down payment for your real estate property not for the entire property. But what is good is that they're using that and they're saying, "Okay, this is the valuation today. It does not change. However, the percentage rate is 1.5 to 2% higher than what you would pay." And if you look at an immortization table, you will know that's going to be kind of pricey later on, but you could definitely do it. I'm just warning you, that's pretty much what it is. Now, if somebody comes out, if me and Matt make a company tomorrow and we say, "Okay, we're going to take your Bitcoin and we're going to pay you, you know, here's the money." but it's going to stay at that appreciation or that price level. That's a gamecher and I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. But if it does, I'll eat my words. Matt, what's your thoughts? >> Yeah, 100%. Uh, of course I'm bullish on Bitcoin and I I don't know if I see the true hyper Bitcoin maxi realized world where every transaction is happening in Bitcoin. My kind of bullish long-term thesis would be again people aren't going to like it, but like these Bitcoin banks where we maybe transact in stable coins that are backed by real verifiable Bitcoin and it's mainly just an international settlement layer and we're all transacting on layer 2. But for that to happen, we need these other avenues to to allow almost DeFi applications. And and I know people will will look at Bitcoin and think, you know, it's it's old technology. It's slow. It doesn't allow, you know, x ammount transactions or smart contracts or whatever, but it's a software. We can develop these things. It's an evolving piece of technology that whatever we want Bitcoin to be, it can be that. And and it's why again I I get a little bit of slack by by saying I'm not a Bitcoin maxi because I think altcoins at the very least can provide, you know, almost like a test net service to Bitcoin because if you know, XY Zcoin comes along in a few years and looks amazing, there's nothing stopping Bitcoin adopting that technology in the future. And at some point I I do see Bitcoin being this all-encompassing, you know, piece of financial information, monetary software that does everything we need it to do. And at that point, maybe we can get these ideal Bitcoin loans or or live entirely on a instantly convertible into Bitcoin based stable coin standard. I don't know. But it's exciting to to imagine all the possibilities. And and I think within the next few years with with quantum coming along and with all of these other AI developments, I think Bitcoin's development cycle is going to rapidly start accelerating. And I know there's controversies around BIP 110 and all of this and that and chain forks that those are going to become, if anything, more common. But I think it's it's good to see at least the the debate and people discussing what Bitcoin should be and what it can be and what it, you know, needs to be. So, I'm very bullish on not just the the price appreciation of Bitcoin, which of course is what a majority of people like to see and it's what makes the headlines, but I mean, Bitcoin in 10 20 years, just from a technological perspective, could be entirely different, which is exciting in its own right. >> Exactly right. And we wouldn't know what it's going to be. It's like uh when man found iron ore, you know, thousands of years ago. It's great. You know, we'll make flints, we'll make armor. No one would thought we'd make a spaceship out of it or we'd make highrises. It just depends on what the technology is. And then here's a Matt, this is not a question for me. This is a definitely if if this is your your thing. I'm not a macro guy, but the question is any opinion on how the yen carry trade, which we've been talking about for I mean it's been talked about for quite some times. Do you guys track that over there at uh looking at Bitcoin or is that just something like you're like, well, it's a macro factor and we'll see if it plays out or not. >> No. So I remember a few years ago when we saw that big yen carry trade unwinding and we saw an immediate kind of reaction in the US stock market and I think it's it's part of a bigger picture what we're currently seeing in the the the bond markets really showing these you know exponentially rising yields giving a lot of macroeconomic uncertainty. You know it's it's it's easy when you can look at somewhere with low interest rates and you can borrow cheap >> invest elsewhere and pay it back for almost nothing. And at the minute again it's kind of licking back to what we were talking about. You know bond ri bond yields are rising. Is this going to be you know the big bearish catalyst to send the entire world into a big global recession or is it going to be the catalyst for governments to again kick the can down the road further print more money to do bond buybacks and try and reduce those yields and again have massive liquidity injections. It's kind of up in the air, but the way I would lean is that I I really doubt we're going to see monetary sensibility, and I think any way that politicians and policy makers can make it the next person's problem, we're going to see more and more of that. So, are we going to see a massive V-shaped dump and pump? Potentially. I mean, if we look at Bitcoin and risk on speculative markets, it's rare that we kind of get this big V-shaped recovery. And I know he showed the the 100 days off of the lows charts that we saw of Bitcoin once we, you know, reclaim those two major levels of resistance, but those were just, you know, the immediate pump once it's very liquid and people start getting confidence. If you look at the year following that, usually there's a lot of chop and consolidation and boring price action. It's not like now Bitcoin has set this $58,000 low and ran up to $80,000. You know, we're talking about 200k in a few weeks time. It's probably going to take a few weeks, a few months, a year or so before we really see this start to come into play. >> Ah, well said. And you know what? There there's there's one thing that was pretty funny to me when you said this. There is a there's a word that uh usually doesn't go together. And you said it, monetary sensibility. And when I was in the army, we'd say there's also two words that don't get go together. Army intelligence. So like when you see this monetary sensibility, I'm like, I think that's right. We might not see too much of that. I think that the governments will continue to print. I will consider to see that we'll see rates go up and inflation go up and that's pretty much how it is. How about this? This is a this is a good good one for you. Question from Matt. This is from Rusty Bot. Always got good questions. If you were to use I love these questions. If you were to use one chart to find the bottom and go all in using Look at Bitcoin, not anything else outside of that obviously, what chart would that be? >> Good question. I mean, it kind of goes against everything that we've said. Please don't go all in based on one indicator, on one chart, on one date. Please don't do that. But I think if I had to come up with one, there's a chart we we haven't covered it today. I I can pull it up very quickly if we'd like, but it's something that I really do like the look of, and it's called the realized capter waves. I And I hate that I have to narrow this down to one, but the realized capter waves. Essentially what that does is almost show us the level of speculation and conviction in the market. So I'll just share the screen so we can quickly bring it up. And what this does is it shows us the influence on the average accumulation price by different age cohort. So so to simplify it, if we looked at the normal hodddle waves chart and we looked at say the the 10 plus year, it would shows the percentage of Bitcoin held in addresses for at least 10 years. But when we look at the realized cap hodaways, it essentially shows us the influence on the average accumulation price. And because you were in Bitcoin at least 10 years ago, chances are you have a very very minimal impact on the average accumulation price. So what you can do and what I like to do is if you remove lots of the lower ones say 3 months and below once we start getting huge conviction peaks and this this works in almost two ways because if we look at 3 months and above for example it shows us that there's barely any new market participants very very few people are entering the space and buying Bitcoin at disproportionately high prices but it's also showing almost peak long-term holder conviction because again this Bitcoin has been held for at least three plus months. If they start capitulating, then again, they're going to capitulate at lower prices and start bringing this metric to the downside. If we look at every single one of Bitcoin bare market lows all the way back to 2011, this metric peaked at pretty much the exact bare market low every single time. Now, again, it's going to be a few thousand off, but without exception when we have seller exhaustion, almost no new market interest, no one speculating on Bitcoin, genuine long-term holder conviction. I'll just isolate it so you can see these peaks. >> Nice. >> Every single time this has signified Bitcoin being at pretty much a bare market bottom. Now, is this going to work forever going forward? No. There's no one holy grail indicator. At some point, we're going to have some tom foolery and it's going to mess the upside or the downside. But at the same time, if we look at it in almost the the opposite view. So rather than looking at long-term holder conviction and lack of retail speculation, if we had just the short-term bands on, this is almost FOMO quantified because when we get these huge spikes to the upside, again, it aligns pretty nicely with bull market peaks. Now, it's not been quite as clean in the most recent bull market because we almost had this triple peak cycle where we had, you know, this big ETF announcement, huge run to 70K, then a six-month cool off, then a big run up above 100,000. So again, I would not rely on any one indicator, but in terms of at least getting a general idea of where we could be in a market cycle based on one to try and accumulate around those bare market lows, I think this is a pretty good one. >> Okay, Matt. Well said. Well explained. I appreciate that. I'll I'll give it to you because it it irritates me, too. Like like when I have to like say, "Okay, you can do this one thing. How about this? put in throw in another couple that would like kind of like verify this at least just just another couple so people can be like oh I could take a look at that and look into Bitcoin. Okay. So, you know what? We'll another good one that I like the spent output profit ratio. >> Now, what we can see here, this is almost the fear and greed index visualized. So, especially to the downside, if we're if we're looking solely on the the downside, accumulating bare market lows, >> there's the the famous Warren Buffett saying, I can't remember exactly, buy when there's blood in the streets, uh something along those lines. when people are capitulating, selling at huge realized losses. When we get these big spikes to the downside, these red negative spikes indicates that people, you know, don't believe in Bitcoin anymore. And the unfortunate thing about unchained data analysis is it is essentially just mass psychology quantified. And the unfortunate reality is a vast majority of participants are wrong most of the time. And again, this isn't to, you know, try and dig on, you know, most retail participants. It it's human nature. It's psychology. when you see your investment down 50 60 plus%. It's hard to have that conviction. It's it's going against those internal biases you have. But every single time this spikes massively to the downside. It just shows capitulation. And it happened in the recent cycle once we get these huge negative spikes. When did these occur? The biggest spikes when we first dipped beneath $60,000 or around $60,000. Then when we dipped to $58,000 again when people have lost all hope and and most of these will be people that have bought the Bitcoin peak and say, you know what, I'm done. I'm out. I can't do it anymore. That's when you're buying cheap Bitcoin. That's when you're buying when people have have lost all hope, have tr truly given up. You want to be doing the opposite of that. You want to be a contrarian in times where where everyone's losing hope. And and same true for the upside when when there's huge amounts of profit taking when everyone's thinking, you know, I'm making so much money here. Usually not a bad time to to start doing something else. And one final one which I do like is the value days destroyed multiple. Again, somewhat similar. This is looking at the coin days destroyed. So the way this looks at Bitcoin is rather than, you know, the level of capitulation, profit taking, etc. This is almost waiting that movement by the amount of time it's been held. So not only we looking at people that have sold Bitcoin, but we're we're almost exponentially waiting it by those that have held Bitcoin for a long period of time. So if I held one Bitcoin for 100 days and moved it, I'd add 100 coin days destroyed. to have those same 100 coin days destroyed with 0.1 Bitcoin, I'd have to hold for a thousand days. So, what we can see is when there's a huge amount of Bitcoin movement by long experienced large Bitcoin holders, again, usually these occur pretty much near the Bitcoin market cycle peaks. But when this cools off to these green levels here, I mean that this just shows that they're realizing the opportunity cost. those that have been holding Bitcoin, especially large amounts of Bitcoin for years, if not decades plus, and they're not selling. Again, it's peak conviction. So, when you start looking at Bitcoin through the the psychology, the onchain data, the technical factors, the macroeconomic influences, once you kind of get these pieces from all these different lenses and look at it and say, okay, everyone has lost hope, but the people who have been here a long time are starting to hold and gain hope and they're actively accumulating. and the macroeconomic factor. I mean, if you looked at the US social sentiment index, I can't remember the exact name for it. It reached its lowest level ever in in May, June, July this year. I mean, that's not a contrarian viewpoint to say we're going lower. The contrarian viewpoint at that point is to be bullish. And it's really hard to be a contrarian bull at times where everyone expects significantly lower prices. But this is when you look at the data. is when you look at the actual behavior happening on chain and again you you can get this kind of similar analysis looking at Bitcoin funding rates looking at the options market looking at you know even Bitcoin proxies like treasury companies and altcoins etc once everyone has lost hope it's time to do the opposite and when Katy Perry is painting her fingernails with Bitcoin symbols or you know politicians are saying we're going to go to a million dollars or whatever it may be that's usually time to maybe start thinking yeah maybe I need rotate out of this a little bit. I'll save some cash for a rainy day. >> You know what? And uh yeah, I remember those days with Katy Perry. I remember all the things that would come through. I'm like, this is not going to end well. And Matt, you're right. The contrarian view is when there is blood in the streets, we buy. And we've been doing I mean, a lot of people on on on the channel doing the same thing. They're just buying and waiting. And I got to tell you, as time this is my this will be my fourth cycle. I have made all my money, all my gains in the bare market. Every time I try to like chase something and hit like near all-time highs, it backfired massively. And this is just it. You got to be bored a little bit. It is boring. It is what it is. But I got to tell you, the payoff coming in is pretty darn huge. So Matt, you've been here. I mean, I I apologize I've taken so much of your time. But last question, and we'll get out of here, is uh first of all, do you have any pets yourself? any dogs, cats, anything like that over there? >> I always grew up with dogs. So, I did actually have two cocker spananiels. Unfortunately, no longer with us, but then uh I I left home, went traveling, etc. So, currently no pets, but I've definitely always been very much a dog person. And my better half, she's always had dogs as well. So, we're very much looking towards getting, you know, a little one of our own one day, I guess. But at the minute, no, the rental unit, I'm not sure if we're allowed dogs here in rainy old England, but one day we we definitely will. and and I think the work that you're doing for the dog shelter is absolutely amazing. And I was I was tuning in earlier. I'm not going to say I've got Ivan on tech levels of of capital available to donate to the good cause, but 210,000 Satoshi's. I don't know if you can see that is just gone the way towards that dog shelter. It's the very least I can do. But yeah, I I think it's amazing the work that you're doing and hopefully we can we can reach that figure and and I know you've got so many different interviewers and podcasters and and guests on today coming to help raise awareness. So, I'm sure we can get you over the line. >> We definitely we definitely all appreciate it. So, Matt, I appreciate it. Everybody, if you like to donate a little bit, again, just uh I don't want you to to break the bank like uh you know, Matt spent a lot and I haven't spent a lot. You know, 20 40 bucks somewhere around there. That'd be pretty great. anything that you want to. Also, if you like this interview, you want to hear more from Matt, I linked into the description uh Matt's uh exac account, which is a good one, and also uh for the company that Matt works for, look into Bitcoin. Both of those can be found in the description right now if you take a peek. And that is it for this one. So, Matt, I appreciate you coming on. We got to I will see you in Miami on November 20th to the 22nd for the end of the cryptoverse. Matt will be the MC and introducing everybody. It should be uh should be good times. Maybe have a couple beers. >> Oh, may maybe one or two non-alcoholic shandies. We'll be very sensible, I'm sure, like like we always are at the conferences. But yes, best of luck for the rest of your stream. I had a question. Are you are you going to stand up for 20 hours? >> Yeah. Well, I I'll probably uh I'll probably take a break and sit down, but uh yeah, I probably stand up. I You know what I should have got was like one of those like treadmills that you you walk on on your desk or something like that, but I didn't do it. So, yeah, I think we're going to take a little bit of a of a break and then uh coming up coming up right now. Let's see. We've got I want to say Wes from Smart Money Tracking in 13 minutes. So, I'm going to take a little break. I'm going to go grab Wes and I'm going to get Matt out of here. I'm sure he's got other stuff to do, but Matt, thanks for stopping by and thanks for donation, man. We really appreciate it. >> Anytime. Always a pleasure and looking forward to catching up with you again in just a couple weeks time. >> Sounds good. All right, buddy. So, that is it with uh with Matt. I want to say thanks again for the donation. Really appreciate that. Now, let's uh take a little little uh break, little cool down, and we'll get uh Wes in. And this is going to be a good one because Wes is a friend of mine and uh this SMC bot, I've been watching this for the last nine months, almost a year. It's looking pretty good. So, we'll be back in a little bit. Let's see if we can uh put on here a little bit of this. I'll remove myself and mute my microphone [music] this time so I'm not cussing. And I'll see you guys in a