Video summary
James Check challenges the prevailing market consensus that Bitcoin has already found its bottom, arguing instead that the market may continue to form a base through early next year. He explains that bear markets function as the inverse of bull markets, beginning with a core group of committed holders who refuse to sell and ending when speculative investors panic and capitulate. According to Check, we have recently witnessed two distinct forms of this capitulation: a price-driven event in February where fear caused a sharp drop to around $60,000, and a subsequent time-based capitulation in June and July characterized by sideways movement and the unloading of billions in ETF assets. He believes that while the absolute bottom might not be fully established yet, the necessary conditions for one have been met, as evidenced by seller exhaustion following incidents like the coldcard hack and a failed soft fork, which allowed buyers to step in without driving prices significantly higher.
A significant portion of Check's argument focuses on the shift in market sentiment and the composition of holders at current price levels. He points out that between $70,000 and $58,000, approximately $300 billion worth of Bitcoin is now held by investors with a cost basis within this range, representing a massive concentration of long-term holders who are not looking for minor gains but rather multiples to recover their losses. This dynamic creates a powerful tailwind where dips are likely to be bought rather than sold, fundamentally changing the market structure from one driven by fear to one driven by conviction. Check also disputes the traditional view that bull markets are characterized by gradual rises punctuated by sharp drops, noting instead that recent cycles have seen prices grind upward with occasional nasty red days, a pattern often misinterpreted as bearish behavior when it is actually a hallmark of a healthy accumulation phase fueled by short squeezes and positive sentiment shifts.
Regarding the future trajectory of the market, Check advises investors to stop relying on the broken compass of the four-year cycle or specific calendar dates like October for bottoms. He argues that anchoring expectations to a calendar creates confusion when the market does not adhere to historical patterns, urging traders instead to look for mechanical evidence such as realized loss events and capitulation signals to determine market turning points. His personal strategy involves heavy dollar-cost averaging during deep value periods, which he executed between February and August, after which he reduced his accumulation pace as Bitcoin moved into what he considers the upper bound of its value zone. He suggests that once the price breaks above $83,000 and holds on a weekly basis, the bear case becomes untenable, and the market will likely move quickly toward euphoria, making it difficult for bears to find reasons to short the asset.
Finally, Check addresses the thesis that altcoins will lead the next bull run due to tokenization trends, expressing strong skepticism about their ability to outperform Bitcoin. He questions how value transfers from sidechains like the Robinhood Chain back to native tokens like Ethereum, arguing that high fees and poor user experiences on these chains negate any potential benefits for the underlying blockchain's native currency. While acknowledging that some protocols use buyback and burn mechanisms to create value for their tokens, he maintains that Bitcoin remains superior simply by offering a reliable way to send, receive, and hold assets without complex mechanics or excessive costs. Ultimately, he concludes that while all markets are cyclical due to human behavior, the specific timing of these cycles is driven by investor psychology and exhaustion rather than rigid calendar events, making it crucial for investors to focus on observable market mechanics rather than outdated historical patterns.
Read the full video transcript
The consensus seems to be that the
market has bottomed or that it's close
to bottom. What if the market will
continue bottom out forming a bottom in
Q1, Q2 next year? What makes you think
that that's unlikely?
>> Yeah, sure. So, I mean like of course
the market could do that. None of us can
tell where the market's going to go. Uh
my view on how bare markets play out at
the end of the day, they're a process
and they're kind of the opposite process
of a bull. So think about what a bull
market is. You start with a pool of
hodlers who really know what this thing
is and no one wants to sell, right?
That's what puts a bottom in. Then over
the course of the bull market, the price
rises. Those people start to sell. The
rising prices brings in more demand. The
overall sophistication level of the
investor who's buying tends to drop. The
smart money sells out. and you get a
pool of people who've bought a ton of
coin thinking it's a great idea feeling
really good about it at a very very high
price which they soon find out bare
markets are the opposite you your
starting point is all of those
speculators and folks who thought we're
going to the moon let's rock and roll
and as the market sells off more and
more of their coins go underwater they
start to look at themselves and go oh my
god have I made a mistake and then they
start to sell and what generally happens
humans are hurt animals we generally all
decide that, oh no, I just bought the
top. I should sell now cuz I'm scared.
We all decide this at the same time.
Now, we generally see this play out in
two events. I call it the price pain
capitulation and the time paying
capitulation. Folks who've just gone
through the bare market, you'll probably
recognize both of these. In February, we
sold off to 60K. It was like 59 on a
wick. 60K. That was a point of genuine
fear. You've got the maximum number of
people who still own. They're kind of
white knuckling it, hoping that it's not
a bear. goes to 60K and they go, "Oh no,
this is going to get so much worse." And
they panic and you get the biggest loss
event. And we saw this, it's by far and
away the biggest loss event that we saw
of this bare market. Now, that's where
the bottom isn't in necessarily, but
most of the downside price action has
happened, right? What we really have
ahead of us is the time pain chapter.
And we all went through this. It's
boring. It's sideways. The market goes
nowhere. It's frustrating. people who
believe in Bitcoin are currently just
going what if this thing doesn't come
back what if my thesis is wrong and they
start questioning themselves and then in
uh June July we had another capitulation
which I call the time paying
capitulation strategy started selling
coins the ETFs unloaded $8.5 billion
everything was bearish and Bitcoin was
dead and that was the second
capitulation 58k now what's the
difference between 58k and 59 or 60
nothing in the grand scheme of things
nothing it's the six months that
separated them. That's the actual
difference. So, have we seen a bottom
get put in? In my opinion, yes. We've
seen the two capitulation events I was
looking for. Um, to give you a bit of a
sense of scale here, between 70K and
58K, which is like the bottom range of
our basing formation, $300 billion worth
of coin in cost basis, measurable on
chain. That is where $300 billion worth
of capital owns Bitcoin. The market cap
when FTX blew up was 300 billion. So the
whole market cap at the bottom of the
last bare market is in cost basis
capital just down there around the 200WE
moving average. So yes, we absolutely
could base for much much longer.
However, from my perspective, we've seen
the capitulation. We've seen the top
buyers get sold. We've seen what I think
is seller exhaustion because we had the
cold card incident. We had a failed soft
fork. We had sailor selling ETFs. Like
everyone was selling and the price went
sideways for like two and a half months.
Seller exhaustion, right? The buyers
were willing to step in. We saw a ton of
capital. So yes, we could. Um but it's
not my base case. And from my view, I
think we've seen all the properties I
would like to see at a bottom of a bare
market. Um you know, in the low 60s. To
me, that feels robust enough. Um if we
get pullbacks, I think dips will now
start being bought um rather than rips
being sold. So, I think that sentiment
has has meaningfully changed.
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I have a counterargument here because
for example, I was uh listening to an
interview with Mark Yusk not long ago
and he was commenting on this latest
short quiz short squeeze that we saw uh
that brought the m brought the market up
higher. He was basically making the
point that
>> usually those types of moves do not
characterize bull markets because in
bull markets usually the price goes down
goes up gradually and then you have like
spikes sharp spikes down when something
some news some bad news or perceived bad
news happens. While on the contrary
during
>> during bare market the market is going
down most of the days gradually and then
you have spikes up when some good news
or perceived good news happens. So that
seemed to be precisely the case when uh
some some good news sparks this very
sharp move up. So what is your comment
on that sort of
>> I mean I actually disagree with pretty
much everything that was said there
honestly. Um, so most of the time in a
bare market the price goes up. Like you
can go and look at the statistics. Most
of the time in a bare market the price
is actually grinding higher and then we
have a handful of really nasty red days
and then it grinds higher. This is
literally the definition of a bare flag.
Price goes down in a big waterfall. It's
like a week and then it just grinds
upwards giving people hope. People get
hopeful. Oh, what if it's back? What if
it's back? And then it goes off again.
Bull markets are the opposite. it goes
up really sharply in like a handful of
days. Um 10 days, 20 days in all of
Bitcoin's cycle is like responsible for
the whole gain of that bull cycle and
then it actually grinds down and
corrects most of the time. It's the
opposite. People get scared and they're
worried that oh no, it's going to be
finished and then it climbs the wall of
worry. So I actually think that's in
reverse. Um now every bare market bottom
that we've seen since 2018 because
really once you go back early than that
it's too small. Um, we have seen a short
squeeze be the thing, one of the things.
It's not the only thing. The short
squeeze was fuel on the fire that was
already built. We saw this in January
2023, a very strong strong short squeeze
and then it just didn't go down again
and it just went up again and it didn't
go down again. We've seen a very big
short squeeze and the market's just
holding in what I call a high and tight
consolidation, just grinding sideways.
Everybody has bare market PTSD. They
think it's going to go down again. And
by the way, it might, and this is just
my perception of the world, 2018, we saw
a short squeeze all the way up to 14K
because everyone was so confident that
it had to go lower. Now, my perception,
and again, that's just my observation.
Um, there's two things that I think
probably differ to the general
consensus. I think the consensus has
been bottom in October for uh following
the four-ear cycle. It's got a bottom
exactly a year after the top. That has
been in my view consensus. That is why
people were short because they believed
that the 4-year cycle was going to
complete to the dot to the crossing the
tees, crossing the eyes. They believed
it was going to be exactly the same as
last cycle and they were surprised. It
went up through their level and it
hasn't given it anything back. You know,
we're down 7% from the local top. Now
the other thing if you look at from an
onchain perspective if you imagine all
the people who capitulated and sold they
are transferring coins from a high cost
basis to a low one. The people who
bought that low cost basis are much much
higher conviction investors. Um at the
bottom of all bare markets and this has
been a very consistent theme. 80% of the
wealth has been owned by long-term
holders. 80% of the wealth is currently
owned by long-term holders. We're at a
level where we just have a high
concentration of hodddlers who own the
supply and they're not looking for a 10%
move. They're looking for multiples
right back to all-time highs. So, we
have a high concentration of hodlers.
Um, on the rally that we've seen, we can
look at things like the amount of supply
that's gone from in loss to inprofit,
the amount of unrealized profit, just
the way that people's portfolio has
changed. We saw 4 million Bitcoin go
from in loss to in profit. 20% of the
supply. It's a massive move. That's a
tailwind. People now feel like, hey, I
bought the bottom and now I being
rewarded for it. You know what I'm going
to do? I'm going to buy the next dip. It
just has the capacity to turn the
tailwind of sentiment. So, the short
squeeze is actually something we've seen
in every bare market end um from 2018,
2022 or 23 um and now. And also the the
the just the sheer size of the recovery
of coins that have gone from in loss to
in profit, which is how we feel, right?
We we respond to our portfolio. The
amount of coins and wealth that's gone
from in- loss to in profit is so large.
There actually aren't any instances in
previous bears because they've all done
the same thing where we've seen that
much tailwind revert back into a bare
market. The the recovery has been so
strong in people's portfolios. I think
it's sufficient to change sentiment. So,
um, yeah, I actually don't I don't agree
with that, uh, that framework at all,
but, uh, that's what makes a market.
>> Yeah, that that's interesting. I kind of
I think I agree because I saw a piece of
research that was published not long ago
that was pointing out that
>> just a handful of days make a bull
market and that%
>> essentially that makes
that makes timing the market in Bitcoin
very difficult specifically because of
this very very short period of time when
when it when it spikes. Um
>> absolutely
>> but uh yeah I have another question
regarding your personal strategy. So, I
know that you're a big fan of DCAing
into Bitcoin.
>> Um, have you increased your DCA strategy
since uh this time is a good good value
proposition sort of period for Bitcoin?
>> Yeah. So, my framework and what I've
been talking to my subscribers about in
on February at the at 60K when we got to
60K on the day I recorded a video uh
report called welcome to deep value and
we'd been discussing the framework of
like when we get down to I use you know
various indexes and and tools and things
to spot like areas I think of value and
my thesis was if we get anywhere close
to 60k that is deep value territory that
is the kind of environment where you're
just going to look back and go do I
really care if I bought at 60 or 62 or
59. No, I don't care at all. If I go
back to the previous bare market, I
don't really care if I bought at 15, 16,
17, 18, or 20. They're all great prices,
right? Even today. So, um, I actually
amped up my DCA from February onwards.
And I used a bunch of tools to to frame
this up. Um, by the time we got to I
mean, August, I was 90% deployed because
my view was we're in the bottom
formation range. And my general advice
is people spend so much time and energy
and me mental anxiety trying to buy the
bottom wick and they're trying to find
the perfect indicator that's going to
tell them the exact bottom. These things
just don't exist. And the sooner you can
let go of like pretending that there's
like a perfect bottom that you're going
to be there, finger on the green button,
ready to go, most people when like the
bottom happens, they're like, "No way.
I'm not touching this. It's going way
lower." Like they're scared. So, um, I'm
a big advocate for DCA, but I'm also a
big advocate for DCAing heavily when
it's discounted and then backing off a
little bit. So, I still think Bitcoin is
in great value. I think it's cheap. It's
no longer as cheap as it was. It's not
what I would call deep value. Probably
the upper bound of the value zone, right
below 100K, I probably say is like value
given where I think it's going to go.
However, I've basically accumulated the
stats that I was going to accumulate.
I'll keep my DCA going for a little
while, but I've certainly backed it off
a little bit. Um, because more or less I
did the job, which was between February
and August. That was the the cheapest
period in that I've seen for a very long
time in Bitcoin. So, I bought as much as
I could in that time. Um, frontloaded it
and now I just kind of let the market
run.
>> H. And so, what would be a level where
you would stop
stop this alto together?
>> Yeah. So, honestly, I think probably
100K is probably about right. I mean,
you know, I think the next move, um,
whenever we get the next move higher,
um, breaking through 83K, 82K, there's,
you know, people can draw their own
lines and levels, but, um, I think
getting above 83 and holding it on a
weekly basis is just like it's game over
for the bare case in my opinion. You're
above the 50we moving average. You set a
new technical high. I find it difficult
to argue the bare case. There's still
some holdouts out there who, you know,
are expecting it to roll over and
they're finding some reason why October
is going to be the bottom. Um, my
general view is that I think we've put
the low in. Um, I think dips are now
likely to be viable. Um, and I think
that just sentiment overall has has
turned. So, um, I think once the next
move comes in, you'll be hardressed
finding too many bears um, out in the
wild. And by that point in time, things
start to move back towards like we're
not going to go straight to euphoria,
but once we're above 85,
there going to be few bears out there.
People are going to start levering up.
They're going to start doing dangerous
things. we're going to get nastier dips
like the path back to all-time highs and
then above like then it starts to get
steamy, right? It can get steamy fairly
quickly. So, um yeah, it depends what
the market does and I'll just assess and
engage as it as it plays out.
>> What sort of event in the market would
sort of make you reevaluate your thesis
for the next months?
>> Yeah, honestly, at this point in time,
until I start seeing like a meaningful
shift in investor behavior, you know, um
old money starting to really like sell
heavily and say, "Hey, something's
something's wrong here." That's
something I'd pay attention to. Um, you
know, long-term holders basically
stopped selling. I think you said we
spoke last in December. Um, long-term
holders stopped taking profit from there
onwards, like basically all of 2026. So,
if you think about what that means, the
people who sold heavily at the top
stopped selling in when we sold from 80K
down to 60K. So, if they're not selling,
what are they doing? They're either in
wait and see mode or they're in probably
time to start accumulating mode. market
formed a base, stopped going down. Those
people have done their accumulation.
They own 80 odd% of the market. You
know, when they start selling again,
it's usually because we're approaching
previous all-time highs. So, if they
start selling heavily, and they're not,
they haven't at the moment. Um, there's
been basically no uptick in their sales
side. If they start selling
meaningfully, that's like information.
That's the people who've been around for
a long time sending a signal and saying,
"Hey, there's worth it's worth actually
distributing and selling at this point
in time." If it's out of sync of where I
would expect it to happen, meaningfully
below all-time high, that's something I
would take notice of. Um, but at this
point in time, it's I, you know, it
would really take a change, a meaningful
shift in investor behavior that I see in
the onchain world for me to change my
thesis.
>> And now I would like you to comment on
an interesting thesis that I heard from
Ron Neoer. He was saying in his show
that according to him, the next bull
market won't be led by Bitcoin, but by
altcoins. uh that altcoins uh altogether
have the potential to outperform Bitcoin
in the next uh uh crypto bull market and
that is because it is is because so
essentially tokenization now has made
crypto has created the sort of product
market fit for crypto finally with Robin
Hood chain and so on. He he basically
said that this um this is a breaking
point which would spark bull market led
primarily
>> by altcoins and not by bitcoin. What is
your view on this?
>> Yeah. So honestly I don't think about
altcoins that much anymore. I just find
them very uninteresting. Um my question
I guess I would pose it as a question to
the audience. Let's say that Robin Hood
chain is extremely successful. It's an
arbitum fork. Can somebody please
explain how ETH benefits from that at
all? Like at all. I can't I I cannot
make the the square circle on how
Ethereum ETH sorry Ethereum the
blockchain and the EVM Salana the
blockchain and the whatever their coding
language is SVM. I don't know how a lot
of usage of that on a side chain that
pays next to no fees to the main chain.
I really don't understand the mechanics
of how value transfers from
tokenization. If you tokenize Tesla's
stock, there's a bunch of people trading
it. First things first, if you put on
the Ethereum, the reason it's on Robin
Hood chain, not Ethereum mainchain, is
because Ethereum mainchain can't handle
the volume that a global stock market
can. Full stop. So therefore, and by the
way, the fees would then go up and
people would just say, well, we should
probably invent something that's cheaper
and they will. There is no shortage of
block space out there. So the race for
fee revenue is always to zero. Because
for me, if you want me to trade Tesla
stock or Nvidia on your blockchain and
the fees are charging me $50 today and
$45 tomorrow and $10 then and then $5
and then $150 and I got to buy some
weird random token from Binance to do
it. The horrible user experience. It's
just not going to happen. People want to
use dollars. They want the fees to be $3
or $1 or free or whatever it is. They
want the fees to be consistent, cheap
brokerage. I don't want to be playing
around with some random asset in my
portfolio. I cannot for the life of me
convince myself that there is any value
transfer from the valuable part which is
the Tesla stock or the Nvidia stock or
the Micron stock. The tokenized thing is
valuable. The rails on which it exists
are simply just not valuable. You know
what I mean? Like it's just like stable
coins. the the stable coin in aggregate
is trillions of dollars a quarter being
transferred in value and if you put all
the L1 blockchains together minus
Bitcoin you're not even close to a
trillion dollars. So like the usage of
the chain has absolutely no bearing on
the value of the native token. So um
yeah I there's a lot of reasons why I
find all coins highly uninteresting. Um
and one of them is that I've just gone
down this path and like no one's given
me a good answer for how the native
blockchain token benefits from being
used. If EVM is being used on Robin
Hood, great. Sounds to me like the
tokenized stock is useful and ETH is
kind of not that useful.
But aside besides besides Robin Hood
chain, there are a few examples of
tokens and protocols that have
introduced a sort of um uh mechanism
which allows value from the usage of the
protocol to the token itself through
buybacks and burns. Like for example,
what happens with Hyperlid where they
buy back the token. um or also I I think
that now also I think that now also
other protocols like for example a and
unis swap have introduced similar
mechanisms. So that's precisely what
you're talking about the value
>> sure
>> flowing to the to the actual token. So
you
>> I mean look um I'm sure that I have no
doubt that there will be onchain
businesses out there that find a way to
make money during the bull market. No
doubt right? However, the whole crypto
ecosystem has been trying to make tokens
valuable for more than a decade now and
Bitcoin just destroys them cycle after
cycle by simply sending, receiving, and
holding. So, yeah. Um, I'm sure that
there will be tokens that go up. I'm
sure that there'll be tokens that find a
way clever ways to fugazi money into the
system. Fantastic. If they finally find
product market fit, fantastic. Great
stuff. Um, I just find it highly
uninteresting. Honestly, I think also
just yeah, I I I can't bring myself to
care is where I'm at in my uh in my in
my Bitcoin journey.
>> And so you hold no altcoins?
>> Zero for many years now.
>> And now a final question for you James.
So regarding the mechanisms that the
tools that we have in order to to
interpret the market. So we usually have
been using the 4year cycle as this sort
of compass and in a in in a recent post
you were saying that the 4year cycle as
a compass has broken
>> and now essentially we need a better
compass to measure interpret the market.
So what that new better compass look
like to you?
>> Yeah I mean look my my simple view and
it's kind of it's a bit philosophical.
If you're relying on Bitcoin to
guarantee that on, 150 days from the
bottom, it will top and then one year
after the bottom it will bottom.
Eventually, if you're using the calendar
and pretending that that drives what the
market's doing when it doesn't do that
thing, you're going to be looking around
being like, "But what happened? What
happened?" And I think there's a lot of
people right now who are thinking, "Hey,
what happened?" And I know this because
I've had messages from people saying,
"Hey, what do I do?" because I thought
it was going to bottom in October. By
the way, we're not in October yet. So,
I'll I'll allow the market to run
through October before I, you know,
claim any victories. But if the market
doesn't bottom in October, there's a lot
of people who are saying, "I didn't buy
anywhere near as much because I was
focusing on that one thing." And that's
my point. My point is, can you explain
the mechanism, the mechanics, the market
structure that causes the bottom to be
exactly one year after the top? No one
has a good answer for this aside from my
my four-year cycle, my calendar. So, my
perspective is what do I look? I look at
show me when the investors who bought
the top and are going to be the sellers.
People who buy the top don't know that
they're about to be sellers. The bare
market forces it out of them. So, show
me when we get enough pain, price below
people's cost basis, enough coins in
loss, enough unrealized losses, enough
people looking at their portfolio going,
"What am I doing with my life?" and then
they sell everything. Now I've got a
realized loss event. I've got a
capitulation. Now I want to see some
time. I want to see some grind. Then I
get the final capitulation in July. To
me, I have all of the pieces of the
puzzle that I'm looking for that
describe a bottom. Now I'm going to look
at the clock right and the calendar. I
don't use the calendar and say, "Well, I
assume that people are going to
capitulate in October." It's like, no,
but what if they capitulated in July? So
really the the compass it's not really
even there's no like specific tool to
use it. You can use TA to do this. You
can do all sorts of things but find
something that is like mechanically
sound that you can something that you
could explain to someone with a
university degree and they'd be like
yeah that actually makes sense. If you
just say that like October is when we
bottom because we always bottom in
October.
It's just kind of it's guys really when
it breaks you're going to be looking
around going what happened? You're going
to be confused. So just don't be
confused by not relying on something
that was never working in the first
place. Um try to now if we started to
see bottom signals and we haven't seen
the capitulation and it was today
September then yeah maybe it was going
to bottom in October and it may well be
that we get the capitulation but I in my
view we've already seen the things that
need to happen to form a bottom. It just
happened in July and February. So that
hopefully that answered the question,
but yeah, I think anchoring to the
four-year cycle is a mistake because
there's no mechanical reason for it to
happen. And therefore, when it doesn't
happen, you're always going to be
confused going, "Well, now what do I
do?" Ask, "Well, now what do I do?" Long
before your compass breaks, right? It's
like a broken clock. It's right twice a
day. Um, just assume it's broken and
find something better.
>> But you still believe that Bitcoin
behaves according to a sort of
cyclicality.
>> Everything is cyclical. I mean, humans
are cyclical. the weather is cyclical,
polit election cycle, everything has a
cycle of some form. Um, and yes,
Bitcoin's had this like four-year
general cadence, but the date on the
calendar is not the thing that drives
the market to do the thing. So, you can
say, hey, look, we're getting towards,
you know, for example, why do we top,
you know, 150 days after the peak?
Because that's how long people like bull
markets have a lifespan. every bull
market, no matter if it's gold,
equities, Bitcoin, everything,
everything can only go up for so long
before it needs to unload some of that
energy to the downside because otherwise
you just end up in a hockey stick
vertical line and like you go to
infinity. So everything needs to take a
take a breather, take a break. So look
for the signs that the market's
exhausting itself, right? When I see
lots of hodlers selling, that to me is a
topping signal. when the top happens is
now somewhere within the realm of like
you know the next period of time but
when I'm seeing the mechanics that put a
top in then I'll start saying all right
well maybe we now check the date and how
long oh it's been we've been going up
for 3 years I wonder if that's like how
long people can sustain this thing for
so rather than just being like it's
going to be three years of bull one year
of bear hodlers will buy the bottom
they'll hold until we get to alltime
high they'll sell heavily from there on
eventually will oversaturate demand. The
people who bought will then start to
panic as the market goes down. They will
capitulate. The hodlers will buy. Rinse,
repeat. So, that's the general cycle
that we're looking for. Look for the
evidence, not the calendar.
>> Okay. Yeah, I think that was uh that was
interesting.
>> And um yeah, thanks again, James. It's
always a pleasure to see you on our
show.
>> Thank you, mate. Thanks for having me
on. Hopefully, uh people took something
slightly different away.