The 100X Crypto Trade Isn’t Where You Think - CoinMarketCap’s Alice Liu | Trade Secrets

Alice, do you think the days of the 100x uh are gone where we see these tokens fly 100 times up in price? You know, a lot of people want to know are those days ever going to come back? >> Oh yeah, they they are still happening. Carrie, we we just need to join the right uh parties. >> [music] >> Hello, welcome back to Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets. My name is Kieran. I'm your host and today I'm joined by Coin Market Cap's head of research, Alice Lou. Alice, how you doing? >> Hi Karen, I'm doing well. How are you? Thanks for having me on here. It's a great pleasure. >> Yeah. So, can we just start with the fear and greed index? Do you think this is relief in the market and maybe short-lived or do you think we're finally seeing after, you know, what has been for the majority of 2026 a bare market, finally the tides are turning and we're going back into an uptrend. >> Yeah, I will need to drag this back a month uh ago. Right. So, right now today, fair and greed is at 72. Last week we had uh 83 82. That's the highest we've seen for the past few months and that's indeed the highest we've seen this year as well. So, it's great to see the market finally coming back. I remembered uh majority of the ETF inflows happened within that week that BTC finally moved above 70,000. And when it comes to CMC crypto fairing grade index, it's not just measuring Bitcoin per se. It's measuring uh a couple of other large cap tokens in this space. And it's not just a price momentum. We also track the trade volume um the volatility uh bit uh as spread but also long short ratio etc. So it's not just purely price is also the trading behavior which I think says more about the market condition um than just the price itself. So to your question, does that mean we are finally sold back? Uh does that mean we have the worst behind us already? What's interesting is since the 80 uh 80,000 BTC levels and then fair and grid finally uh come back to extreme great levels, what we've seen is Bitcoin chopping around 75 76,000 and stabilize around this. Um what's also interesting is for this week where we saw the AI stocks having a bit of correction we saw commodities having another move as well and then now with the J uh Japanese yen I think the whole market is looking on the debt crisis as well. So even with all these uncertainties and the macro setup uh crypto is still doing strong so doing well. So I think uh it is not a uh out of nowhere that we see maybe the worst has behind has been behind us already. >> So do you think then that the bottom for Bitcoin is in the $58,000 mark we saw a bit earlier this year was the bottom and it's only up from here. >> It's difficult to see because if we just purely look at four year having cycles I know I know this is very controversial because now we've moved on a long way. the whole industry institutions and whatnot but the basics the four-year cycle that would gave us end of this year uh end of December uh to be the absolute bottom uh and that is modeled to be around 40 to 45,000 USD per BTC but again coming back to this 2024 January with the ETF approval now institutions coming in I think it does change the dynamic slightly as well so maybe 58k that the the print we had back then was already the bottom. Could there potentially be a global level correction with the risk on assets? Maybe. And the impact it would have on crypto on Bitcoin um surely that would have impact that that would impact us as well. So I would give it a bit of a room to say if we do have a global level correction then maybe crypto would be impacted also. So Alice, you crunch down crypto numbers a lot more than your everyday person who's just looking at, you know, Twitter crypto influencers. So if you were to say either scale, either we go back to 40,000 mark by the end of this year or not, what are you more likely to say at this point in time? Um, last week I might say we have a potential p pullback but this week given where the macro is sitting I think everyone is eyeing on potential interest rate like correct uh updates as well. So we potentially could see um the market get getting a a lot more injection in liquidities and risk on assets benefiting a little bit more as well. So I would say maybe it's up only from now on till the end of the year. >> Amazing. And looking at obviously the coin market cap altcoin index as well like you said 34 out of 100 right now. So still in Bitcoin season. What do you think needs to happen for that to tip and investors go down the risk curve? Do you think that we need to see all-time highs first in Bitcoin or do you think that rotation might happen earlier? Yeah, I think uh depends on what you are trading in the market at the moment. It feels different. Altcoin season [laughter] uh it's it is a very interesting measure uh measuring index because how we measure altcoin season is top 100 projects excluding stable coins of course uh their performance versus bitcoin for the past 90 days. If 75 uh out of that 100 projects outperforms BTC, then we see it's a full on altcoin season on coin market cap then you will see the the the dashboard goes uh up above 75. But then if less than fewer than 25 of them outperforms BTC then we're in the BTC season. Right now it's 36. Um what is happening is for the 90 days we have seen a rotation of different topics different narratives. That is why when it comes to alcoin season we're somewhere in the middle. We're just slightly getting out of Bitcoin season going to alts. So if you look at the top ones what's pumping uh leading the chart right now it's pawns. So Ps that is the launchpad on Robin Hood chain. And I think everyone has seen the the power of Robin Hood chain for the past few weeks starting with memecoins well starting with the intent of tokenization of stocks uh RWA things but then that quickly the memecoin trend catched on. So I think in terms of the the whole ecosystem there are launchpads is grabbing a lot of the attention at the moment and number two is pump.comf fun that's another launchpad and then we have zcash uh litecoin uni unis swap curve a spx for example so it's a mixture of a bit of launchpad a bit of defi a bit of uh memecoins so we do see that yes there is um there is not a whole fall on altcoin season but we do have spa pockets of growth and that is rotating very fast at the moment. So to answer your question like is uh are we expecting BTC to go to another alltime high or even to go above 100K to set this off? Not necessarily. So what we normally see the altcoin season trigger is Bitcoin needs to have a bit of action, right? For example, breaking above 70K, for example, breaking above 80K um would give the market a lift in terms of liquidity, in terms of confidence. uh in term in terms of a cap attention capital flow and that normally gets triggered up triggered down to defy. So the next thing we saw uh following the BTC pump with Ethereum pumping defy ecosystem getting a boost and memecoin quickly caught up. So, I know it's a bit of a controversial analysis at the moment for Robin Hood chain, but what we do see with Robin Hood chain and ecosystem is that the how quickly meme coins can catch up, how how quickly we can then gather the attention of the crypto crowd again. So, I think that's definitely a very uh interesting thing to see and to remember as well. >> I want to talk to you about memecoins, but first you mentioned Hyperlid. I was talking to Arthur Hayes the other week and he said Hyperliquid's kind of the obvious play now, so it probably doesn't have the same upside as some of the other altcoins that are floating about. What's your thoughts on that? Do you think that Hyperlid is still in for potentially massive gains still or do you think that's behind us after uh recently reaching new all-time highs? >> Um, so for hype, there are two things I want to mention. Number one is the activity and number two is the price because the the network activity is it doesn't necessarily translate to the price vice versa. So let's look at the activity first. One interesting thing is I was looking at the RWA per two months. So uh the perpetuals backed onto tokenized stocks tokenized ETFs and tokenized index that is getting traded. So back then when the you know the first when it first started with NASDAQ 100 or with SpaceX uh tokenization of uh per people normally traded on hyperl liquid but since let's say Binance started to launch the RW per then the volume and liquidity quickly moved on to Binance now Binance takes about 50% of the market share but when it comes to DEX hyperlquid still leads in that space so I think in terms of activity hyperlquid is still a venue where a lot of the uh liquidity is getting aggregated, a lot of the products uh scale is created there. Um but then let's look at the price because hype did give us an all-time high recently $86. Um what's really interesting is the buybacks. So Hyperlid is actually leading the number one for the token buybacks for the last few few months. So 2026 year to date, hype has spent over 400 million USD in token buybacks. So I think some of this price action momentum we are saying it's supported by that as well. The revenue generated on the platform is used to buy back tokens. That said though hyperlid only had a small amount uh unlocks. So I think we're still seeing the token unlocks gradually coming out as well. So will they have enough activity on the network to generate the revenue to continue with the buybacks to support the price level? I think that's one of the key things to watch. >> So do you think then if we see Bitcoin go to new all-time highs next year, we might see hype still have a double in price next year too? You're right to put it into perspectives because yes, a Bitcoin right now is you don't you don't need double to create an alltime high. It's 1.6 one 1.7x then you get another alltime high. Uh would it be possible for hype to do a one more than 1.6 or or even 2x? I think when the network activity comes back into the market potentially that could be that could be true. So yes, I think uh that comes that's true for not just hype that might be true for other D5 tokens as well because ultimately nowadays if you look at what's getting traded in the market it's RWA and memes. So when RWA memes comes back defy make a DEX make a comeback too. Do you think RWA right now is just a buzzword, a bit of a a fade, and people are eventually going to move on to the next narrative, or do you think we're still in the early phases of of the RWA tokens right now, and there's still a lot of upside in that sector? >> Yeah, so interesting. You mentioned that when it comes to RWA, there are two interesting things. Number one is the actual tokenization of the stocks themselves, and that includes primary market and secondary market. second secondary market be like those uh already traded on NASDAQ or London stock exchange. So you tokenize those those definitely say a um appetite in the market. Um and then when it comes to tokenization of uh equity primary market that's preipo that's one of the hottest topic in crypto this year with spacex with CXMT potentially with deep sake and anthropic I think people are all eyeing on the opportunity to participate in prio via tokenization formats or purpose formats so I think those will stay uh but when it comes to RWA other things I think it's a bit challenging So I'm talking about for example commodities, real estate, uh and those more niche markets, private credits. I think that is lacking a bit of traction at the moment. Um also what's interesting is recently we saw the growth of stable coins, right? Because now not just us um cryptonative issuers, the big banks there are te teaming up to create the uh official stable coin as well. I think by connecting the trifire rail together with the crypto rail um RWA will be a theme to stay and it's going to be more more than just crypto people trading it. >> Amazing. Now Alice, do you think the days of the 100x uh are gone where we see these tokens fly 100 times up in price? You know, a lot of people want to know are those days ever going to come back? Oh yeah, they they are still happening. K, we just need to join the right uh parties. So [laughter] I think the Miman party is still very much uh celebrating those results especially like this week that we've seen uh with for example Justin songs related memes or for example the uh Robin Hood chain related memes. So meme coins they still make a comeback with all but very fast pace. So you have to catch the trend. Um but of course not just those but more solid projects as well. Maybe not a 100x maybe 10x 20x is still very uh doable for solid solid projects. So for example on CMC we have DEX scan uh where you can go on there and then they they will uh dig out the alpha for you and you can track and follow what are the top uh trending tokens that had gained great momentum for the past 24 hours. So some of these tools um that I think not just provides other data providers as well can really help capture those trends. that yes, there are 100x opportunities. Um, I think we we just need to be more even more in tune with the markets non-stop. >> Now, the clarity act is another thing that everyone is looking at in the US as a potential to to move the markets as well. Prediction markets are a bit volatile on what's going to happen with the Clarity Act and whether it's going to pass this year. Do you think given that people are now uncertain about the clarity act as opposed to at the start of this year where everyone was thinking that it's going to happen the odds were at like 80 something%. Do you think now because the odds are so much lower there is room for that to not be priced into the markets and if it does happen to pass this year we'll see a potential uplift in the markets too. Um that's a very good point because the market was very hopeful at the beginning and then it was [clears throat] it sort of because everyone was not expecting clarity act to get passed and then now uh we're looking hopeful again because I believe it's the most recent news today that uh US might have a conclusion in the next few weeks. Um what is really driving this though I think is it might be the collective effort behind this recent stable coin initiative behind all the big banks. So I think yes at that point to make um crypto more institutionalized u might be one of the driver for clarity act to pass. But again, is this a sell the news event? Will that actually have the impact on the price as much as we as what what we think might be questionable. >> So right now we've talked around what you're most bullish on. I want to talk to you about what you're most bearish on right now. So looking at the altcoin sectors right now, which particular sectors or altcoins do you think have the most chance of going to zero? >> H it's so hard going to zero. Um so going to zero uh two two things that might make a sector go to zero. Number one is security reasons. I think we we saw how scary it was when it comes to Zcash when there was even just a slight questioning on the on the actual uh security itself especially when it when it comes to like more infra and tech focused narrative such as privacy. Um but also again like at the same time if it's not a security concern the second reason that might make a sector go to zero is just uh lack of attention and collective abandoness. We saw that being a narrative in crypto. Um, for example, gamefi is no longer one of the top priorities. For example, NFTTS was so big back then, but it's also sort of fading out. But that said, people's attention and capital will still [snorts] uh stick with the narratives that are pumping at the moment because the narratives that are trending today are RWAs are uh defy launchpads. They are um me coins. So I think a lot of this will still have the trading activity and the attention left. uh if I have to name one maybe I don't think it will go to zero but I think it might be a bit challenging for recovery is AI >> the AI crypto tokens that is >> yeah the AI crypto narrative just because they are they are facing such big competition at the moment with the actual AI stocks all the memory stocks and uh all the AI companies so I think that might be the competitor they're facing Yeah. And I guess you know last cycle, a couple of years ago, we saw a lot of these AI tokens pumping. Are you mainly referring to those ones as in they're unlikely to have a resurgence again or going forward even the new AI tokens that we're seeing now? Um because obviously there's the concerns around the whole AI bubble too. >> Yeah. So for the previous cycle, memeified AI tokens that does not have any like utility or infrastructure is purely just backing onto a concept. Yes, I think >> uh to your question, I think those would be potentially having the risks to go to zero. Um but then I know there are some really solid AI projects infra um in in the crypto space. I think those I generally consider them as infrastructure. So I think they will have utilities still. Um but even that I think they're likely to get a price discount as not fairly priced just because the attention like it's so much easier for people to get pulled away from crypto AI infrastructure to trade AI stocks. So I think that's the that's the concern they might they might face. >> Yeah. Yeah. And it kind of brings me to my next point because I've been asking guests this, like if you had $10,000 now, over the next 12 months, would you be putting it into Bitcoin, cryptos, or AI stocks? How would you be managing that $10,000 across across those three? >> I like how you put Bitcoin outside of cryptos. [laughter] So, I would choose cryptos. Bitcoin. >> No AI stock. >> No AI stock at all. >> Uh I didn't know I can choose multiple. Of course, like when it comes to asset allocation, you should put your ax not in one basket. And but I do feel now with the correction like global as I mentioned like we're really going to a very um chopping period just because now even the if you look at the tri market, the fundamental of it is that market, right? uh and the bottom of the debt market is the foundation of all foundations are government debt. And if that is having a bit of a challenge at the moment and the the tools that um economists and central banks use to stabilize the market, they have been pushed to this point where they don't really have that many tools any anymore. unless they lower the interest rate uh again but they don't have much of a room to lower compared with the inflation that it might get and the effects impact that might that it might have. So with all of this I think to fix the government debt problem um it's going to be a very risky uh risky move for the central banks. So they might choose to do that to fix the debt problem for the cost like use the equity market as a cost right. So if you look at the equity market nowadays, if you do have to pick the sector that will get hit the most by this correction, it's most likely to be AI. So I understand um people think you know it's uh it's next trend and we must participate in the growth of this technological innovation. Yes. Yes, we should. But if I'm just giving a one-year time horizon and I think the potentials that we can deliver within crypto will might have a lot more uh compared with the AI market. >> Amazing. Now just to wrap it up, Alice, I want to know because I've been asking the guests on week in week out and people have been giving different answers. Bitcoin to a million by 2030. What's your thoughts? to uh Bitcoin to 500K to 2013. >> So what's your reasoning behind 50% of what Brian Armstrong and Kathy Wood have been saying? >> Um I'm a I'm a lot more conservative. No. Um it it's comes to balanced things, right? for example modeling in what the potential institutional demand is modeling in um BTC's uh replacement of gold allocation globally and by the way we have hit all-time high of correlation of BTCV as gold for the past six six years compared with uh so BTC is now playing more and more as a gold character and then modeling in the four year having cycle modeling in a lot of other proprietary datas that we can see on our site the and the trade volume etc I think we are it's it's it's not unlikely that we might hit 1 mil, but I I'll give it a more uh a bit more uh conservative answer. >> So then what's in what world do we see 2030 and a Bitcoin price lower than it is today? >> Um I think we might have already touched the bottom. So, >> so there's no chance that 2030 will have a lower Bitcoin price than the the 80,000 that were sent. >> Yeah. Yeah. No. Um so I I don't think that might happen because even though as I said a financial uh global level financial crisis happens uh Bitcoin's characteristic playing out as gold is going to help us there. So honestly across the board right now to look at the different asset classes and with the uncertainty and where market is in front of us, I do believe people underestimate um Bitcoin and crypto as a a better place to park the funds um for the for the uncertainty to come. So >> amazing Alice, thank you so much for joining us on the show. Appreciate your time. >> Thank you very much Karen. It's great to be here.