Supply And Demand Weekly Forex Forecast including Gold and S&P 500

Hi, my name is Leon Ro, currency trader and trading coach at trading180.com. Welcome to this week's supply and demand, Forex, gold, and S&P fundamental and technical analysis for the week ahead starting the 19th of July. Hope you all had a great trading uh week last week and uh getting into the week ahead. And it says here and this is from trading economics developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. A softer week of US data will be hand headlined sorry by leading indicators in S&P PMIs CB leading index and results from regional uh Fed surveys. Meanwhile, the ECB will deliver a rate decision and Europe will see a batch of sentiment indicators while the UK will unveil inflation rates and the employment rate and retail sales. In Japan, the trade balance and CPI are due. Elsewhere, Canada will publish consumer inflation data on the political front. Labor Party leader Andy Bernham is due to become the UK Prime Minister. said there's quite a few market moving uh news macroeconomic news events uh coming up this week. So looking at risk sentiment overall and it does look like volatility and risk risk sentiment [clears throat] has increased uh over the last couple of days trading days from around Thursday to Friday and we've also seen that being backed up by you know the SM uh falling a little bit right and that's really due to uh what's going on in the Middle East and it says here US and Iran trade more attacks after two troops killed in Jordan. So, the US and Iran engaged in another wave of tit fortat attack attacks with US forces hitting uh Quishim, I think that's how you pronounce it, island and uh southern cities in Iran and Iran's army retaliating with drone strikes targeting US forces in Kuwait. The US strike sought to uh degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping and swiftly punish Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpse forces behind the Jordan attack that killed two American service members and Iranian Supreme Leader I'm not going to uh Kamini uh warned uh of unforgettable lessons uh for the US saying US violations of the memorandum have once again proven to everyone the truth uh of how worthless and invalid the signature of the US president is. So um that's uh one of the uh the riskoff narratives that is really driving uh headlines and also as well we have here that hedge funds add bullish oil bets at fastest pace in a decade. Right. So hedge funds increased their long only positions on Brent oil by 75,96 to 357,154 in the week ending July the 14th. biggest increase since December 2016. The increase in bullish bets came as fighting between Iran and the US ramped up dampening investors expectation of a uh sustained recovery in shipping through the straight of horn moves. The conflict has tightened the global supply of fuels such as diesel and gasoline, sending profit margins for refiners to records and lifting long only NYX diesel bets to the highest level since the first days of the Iran war in March. So the Iran conflict that's raging on is causing, you know, a supply shock. um therefore uh you're going to get uh higher oil prices and therefore higher oil prices feed into inflation, right? And so um yeah, we've got really that going on uh in terms of risk sentiment. Gold not really being helped uh even though we're in a riskoff environment. Yes, gold is typically a risk uh off [snorts] asset where traders will um go into um gold to protect um a hedge against inflation. But the issue is is that gold doesn't pay an interest, right? It doesn't pay a yield. Therefore, um in a high yielding environment, risk off environment, uh gold doesn't do so well because there are alternatives like the US dollar and um treasury bonds, right, which pay uh a yield. So in a higher interest um rate or higher yielding riskoff environment uh gold doesn't necessarily typically uh do that well right um and so gold struggling um in this environment and then we have the uh US uh 2-year Treasury yield which is reflects uh you know interest rates bonds thinking about where interest rates are going inflation is going um and also investor confidence in government debt Uh typically the rule of thumb is when you have uh rising uh short-term yields uh you or at least a stable short-term yield where it's ranging uh the bond market are assuming that the central bank are likely to kind of hold rates and the potential for high rates and I think uh in the short term and this is what's really being reflected where you can see uh the uh 2-year yield over the last month really just within this range. kind of made new highs, but then it's kind of pulled back a bit. So, you're looking at this sideways movement, but I mean, if you if you're, you know, looking at to add, you know, some trend lines, it is in a little bit of a uh in a little bit of a channel as well. But overall uh the potential for uh rates being held in the US at least for a little longer with the possibility of hikes depending on the effect and how long the conflict uh lasts in the Middle East, right? Which will um uh is likely to contribute to rising inflation and therefore inflation rising would mean the potential for uh rate hikes across the board, not just with uh the Federal Reserve but likely with uh other central banks as well. And so we're looking at the interest rate probabilities and we have here that most central banks or all central the major central banks anyway that we're looking at in this video um excluding really the RBN zed, but we don't cover that uh in the uh YouTube channel um are really on hold, right? The next move is on hold. Next moves are in pretty much late uh late later on this month, late July. And uh the probabilities of a hike for the Fed is 20 um 24% at the moment. So, low probabilities of hikes for um for all of the central banks. And in fact, it does look like the it says here the Bank of Japan might even end up cutting rates, which would be very surprising considering they um their inflation is is rising as well. But ultimately um the Fed I think still in the driving seat and really when we're looking at the uh the US dollar you know we have pulled back a bit right down into this uh uh support and resistance zone below it is a bit of a demand zone. So let's see if prices react to the support or resistance or whether prices you know move to the downside and then more to the upside. And uh uh really what's driving the dollar um what drove the dollar this week was that it says here US bonds extend rally as soft inflation data dims Fed hike bets. So treasuries rose for a second day after um soft US inflation readings reinforced optimism uh that US inflation has peaked and may curb the need for Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Traders paired back their wages for a quarter point Fed rate increase later this month, pricing in about three basis points worth of tightening this month. A roughly 10% likelihood of a move. And the June produ producer prices report showed a 0.3% drop from May compared with a median estimate of no change. And the year-on-year rate slowed to 5.5%. So inflation kind of came down this week but as the market is quite forward thinking again you know understanding that there you know there's a pretty much maybe a little bit of a lag when it comes to inflation um and uh and oil and the effect of oil prices on inflation right um I think uh in the short term that did have obviously an effect on uh you know the dollar right to the downside but as the war continues to u potenti potentially continue. Um we could see of course um inflation numbers come in maybe a little bit higher or a little bit more sticky. Therefore um the short-term or the medium-term inflation expectations are what are likely to support the dollar as well as of course the riskoff narrative as well. The fact that there's war, right? Uh and it says here as well, Walsh shows his inner hawk as inflation debate heats up. So, Federal Reserve uh Fed officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged when they gather in Washington on July the 28th, 29th, but a family fight could come to a head in the meetings that follow. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has hammered home the message that the US central bank is on inflation watch. So, that's their focus and has no tolerance for inflation with some officials warning of an urgent need to act. The central bank could consider raising interest rates if inflation doesn't call soon with vice chair Phillip uh Jefferson and other officials signaling a potential rate hike although most analysts see a July hike as a long shot. So the Federal Reserve is you know hyperfocused on inflation, hyperfocused on how long uh these attacks will continue to happen and along the straight or moose is closed for. Um, and so again, if you have a situation where hedge funds are adding adding, you know, hugely bullish bets as well, the fastest pace in a decade, I would assume that they are um, you know, pricing in uh, basically higher oil prices for a for a bit longer, right? And that um, you know, that's the the the more higher probability bet. Therefore, I think the dollar should be a bit more supported in this environment. Yes, it could continue to move to the downside, but I think any moves to the downside are likely um buying opportunities until uh the risk sentiment uh eases, the straight of horm reopens and inflation uh potentially continues to kind of trend to the uh to the downside. But if you are looking for a uh a dollar short, then I would really kind of suggest um waiting for a pullback, right? And this is the dollar index, by the way. equally weighted dollar index. Uh the dollar equally weighted against currencies like the euro, the pound, the yen, the CAD, the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and the Swiss Frank, all the major ch uh pairs and currencies that we trade. And um and so I would uh uh wait for the um dollar to be on the expensive side, right, before looking to short the dollar. If I'm if you're looking to buy the dollar against any of these currencies and you see a setup on your pair, what you want to see is the dollar on the cheap side and the pair uh and you know the currency that you're you know looking to sell against or buy against either be on the opposite side. So if you're buying the dollar then the Swiss Frank would have to be on the expensive side and vice versa. Right? If you're if you're selling the dollar and you're looking to, you know, then and you want to trade against the New Zealand dollar, then the um New Zealand dollar would have to be on the bargain uh end of things, right? So, that's really where I am. Um I I think you can probably look for more buys than sells or more bullish um at this point in time, at least for the next week until proven otherwise. I'm more bullish on the dollar uh at the moment. Uh looking at the euro and uh the euro did come down really to the end the bottom end of this uh demand zone with a little bit of uh um support here proven support in the past. We've had some resistance here, a bit of support. Really hasn't acted as uh anything until recently. And so um from the Euro perspective, this week is also a bit of a crucial week. And it says here ECB set to wait for September to hike one last time. poll shows. So, economists predict the European Central Bank will pause to assess inflation next week before delivering a final interest rate hike in September. Most respondents in a Bloomberg survey anticipate a quarter point increase in the deposit rate to 2.5% in September when policy makers will have new quarterly forecasts and the ECB's decision will depend on the situation in the Middle East. Right, surprise surprise. and its impact on oil prices and inflation with some economists saying a September hike is not a done deal. So again, the ECB just like pretty much all other central banks are looking at the Middle East situation um oil prices and inflation as to whether they will aggressively hike rates maybe high crate what once twice or maybe even not at all. Right? So uh one thing though in Europe is quite susceptible unlike the US susceptible to higher inflation in terms of the impact of inflation on their economy because they're heavily dependent on energy on importing energy. Inflation um uh affects them uh a lot more acutely than it would in the US who are net energy exporters. uh therefore uh high inflation um does typically tend to or can um end up hurting the economy as well. So um in a high inflation environment, the euro wouldn't necessarily do well against uh a currency like the uh US in a riskoff environment. So um uh the euro I wouldn't say even though they're potentially looking to hike rates in September um I don't know whether they would be it would be really kind of strong enough against the dollar against some other currencies who are again in the same boat maybe a little less um a little less hawkish then the euro could be a buy but in terms of looking for uh buys against the US dollar I would personally refrain against that but the euro can be a buy or a sell a buy at lows, a sell at highs. You can ether look for a buy now, uh maybe a little bit more of a pullback if you're looking for a bit more of a discount or you're looking at maybe sells if we get to uh this supply zone around here. And even around there, there looks to be a little level of uh resistance on that daily as well where you've got, you know, level of support there, bit of support here, resistance along here as well. So maybe a bit more of a pullback if you're looking for sells on that euro. Looking at the yen and the yen again been short had bit more of a short bias over the last few weeks as well and that has played out and we're at these lows again. And the last time we were at these lows, uh, we had intervention, right? This was the intervention day, 30th of April, which, you know, the central bank, Bank of Japan, ended up, uh, uh, uh, intervening to try and defend um, a weak uh, currency. They don't want the currency too weak because a weak currency means inflation goes higher and they're not, the central banks aren't able and the Bank of Japan wouldn't be able to achieve its 2% inflation target if it's overshooting, right? So um is there intervention uh now? Right? Is there likely to be intervention now? And it says here that yen options suggest a slide to 165 on the dollar yen level before Japan intervenes. So the yen has room to weaken uh more before Japanese officials step into support the currency. options suggest uh a combination of global and local factors are weighing on the currency including the gap between the US and Japanese interest rates. Traders are comfortable pricing yen weakness all the way to uh 165 per dollar uh which is a drop from the current level already near the weakest in four decades. Right? So the yen overall, you know, is weakened. Even if we do zoom out and look at the uh all the data that we do have, we have up in, you know, back from until November 2026 and we're even below that, right? So the yen index is uh extremely um uh weak, right? And so when we're looking at the um uh the uh the yen, if you're looking at the dollar yen, which we'll get to in a sec, uh if it's looking at 165s, then and we're maybe around the 163s. And let me just double let me just check. We're at 162s 40. So, you've got at least another um you know uh maybe about 250 pips uh worth of upside potential which may mean that this would likely break this level before we even you know before we get to uh a situation where the central bank may intervene. So overall bias would still look for sells on the Japanese yen and the pound the pound has had a great run right a fantastic run. I have been bearish on this. Um I've had a more of a bearish bias and I think this this move to the upside is really due to a number of things but mainly due to short squeezes. Um a couple of weeks ago um I went over the fact that there was an article that was saying that the um the market was heavily bearish on the uh pound because when you look at the pound fundamentally it wasn't necessarily great at the time but it has recovered right short squeezing a lot of traders and then we had this move on the Wednesday where we had this outsized move on uh on Wednesday and it was really uh more due to the the political side of things and the fiscal side. Then it says here, "Pound hits one-year high as fiscal fears ease and the bears retreats as sterling hit its strongest level in a year as speculation about incoming prime minister Andy Bernham's chancellor of the excheer pick accelerated a shift away from bearish positions on the UK [clears throat] sorry currency. The uh Bloomberg British pound index rose to its highest since July 2025 with traders uh and analysts citing a mix of politics, positioning, and technical factors behind the move. Reports suggest Burnham may uh name home secretary Shabina Mahmud to lead the UK treasury which is viewed as a market as a markets friendly choice and has helped boost sterling demand and turn traders bullish on the pound. So the pound uh becoming now uh a really a a buy um in you know if you're looking at the headlines uh I do think that the uh the pound um isn't necessarily um an an allout buy. I still in my private members group um looking at more sells. I do think that this is potentially a stop hunt. There is data coming out this week for the pound which if um uh if it isn't necessarily great, we can uh we're likely to kind of sell off. Plus, we need a bit more of a pullback technically as well. There's probably some profit taking going on as well. I think the short squeeze may be done a little bit. So, um so really what we're looking at, I think if you are looking to buy anyway, then you' look be looking to maybe little bit more of a pullback maybe down into this zone before looking for a buy. But uh I'm actually short on the pound. I've got in short on the pound uh the pound dollar also as well in the risk uh off environment and with higher higher oil prices. The pound doesn't typically do well. Again, just like Europe, uh the UK uh import a lot of their energy. Therefore, inflation um higher inflation is a problem and it can hurt the uh the economy. So um we could see a bit more of a pullback. Although I'm not totally against uh buying the pound, maybe on a bit more of a pullback in the short term. So if it does pull back down to these areas and you're uh and you're looking to buy the pound, then fine. But again, as we get into maybe uh the the budget, August, September, end of August into September, I think the pound is likely to probably stall as we get more uncertainty around uh Andy Bernham's um uh labor and fiscal policy. So the pound can be a buy at lows, sell at highs. I'm still uh you know looking for looking for sells at the moment, but I'm not against buying the pound uh in the short term if we get a decent pullback and the environment supports it. So overall, my uh my bias for the uh for the dollar would be more buys, right? I look for a buy on the dollar and it's actually cheap at the moment or considered cheap, an area where it's pulled back. the euro. Um I am long on the euro against the pound. I think um the euro could have a bit of a pullback this week and the pound a bit of a sell-off. Um and I'll get into that again in my new trades as you can see down here. Uh the yen we've got still sells. So I think my bias therefore if you're looking for sells in fact you're looking for really kind of um first area [clears throat] to kind of look for a sell would be somewhere around here [snorts] where you've got level of resistance right here. If it pulls back up to this area or anywhere around these highs I would definitely suggest looking for sells unless of course there is some sort of intervention. And with the pound I think you can look for buys and sells. short-term um sentiment I think is definitely supportive for the pound. Uh but in terms of the technical side of things, I will look for a sell uh into um I what I think would be a decent or should be or maybe be a decent pullback this week even if it pulls back around here. Um and the and the uh um we should see some downside uh to the pound overall. So looking at the pairs and the pairs this week, uh we have the Euro dollar. Um I do think that the euro uh could rally a little bit if the European Central Bank uh you know come out a little bit more hawkish um this in their in their meeting this week. Uh there is a nice little stop hunt level around here as well for those who knows how to trade stop hunts. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bit more of a pullback. But in this current riskoff environment, I would favor any downside. So if prices do pull back this week and stop hunt, that would be a decent trade. If prices do pull back, even up to this area here, I would still recommend, you know, the pullback. As you can see, the immediate trend, which is driven by the fundamentals, is still really more to the downside. I don't think there's really a material change or structural change in the in my bias. Uh the dollar yen should continue to be really more on the upside. Uh I would probably draw if there's any kind of demand it would be probably around here. Uh got demand around here. So at the maybe uh got a level as well probably about here. Um right. Yeah. So we got a level of bit support there. Support there. So maybe a pull back into the 161 120s and somewhere within this zone, right? Actually, probably the 160s would be even better, right? But remember, we've got at least uh 165 about 250 pips to the upside before uh there's even a chance of an intervention. I think any pullbacks into this zone around here or below uh a decent buying opportunities uh the pound right the pound and I'll go into um uh my trade setup and how I got into this uh short I think should really be on the uh on the short side. So there it did actually touch this uh supply zone right here. So, there was an opportunity if you were looking to uh to short in this uh supply zone. There was an opportunity there. But I ended up getting in on a stop hunt, which again I'll go in a bit later. But if you are looking for um sell, then maybe, you know, the riskreward might not be worth it right now. Maybe you'd have to wait for a pullback back up into this level before going short. If you're looking for a long trade uh and looking to buy the pound against the dollar, then down here would be really where your nearest demand zone is. Uh Euro pound and the Euro pound. Again, I end up getting long around here. There are reasons for that um which I'll go into when I uh go into my trade setup. But um as it stands, it does look like uh there is a demand zone from a daily candle perspective. You've got a demand zone here and you've got a demand zone there. Now, many of you might be wondering, well, how did you get into a trade if uh there's no demand zone? And there is uh an area um around here where I um uh I'm able to get into a demand zone. And it's really to do with uh auctions and 80% of auctions to discount. So basically it's just looking at the high to the low from here to here, right? The overall and then looking at around 80% of that zone as well, right? So 80% discounts I don't mind buying at if the top is that if that's 100% right, you're paying premium prices, right? And then this is fair value 50% discounts and then we've got 80% discounts around here. if prices kind of touch this area of 80% then I I will look for a uh a buy on that as well. So that's the reason why I ended up getting involved in that trade. So but I'll show you where uh exactly where I got in on and where my stop losses are on this trade. Um but if you are looking for uh a sell, right, if you're looking for a buy, you can either do that or you can wait for prices to p kind of pull back a little bit deeper into this demand zone. If you are looking for [snorts] uh shorts, then you've got a level of you got levels of supply just above here where you can look to get involved. If you feel that the pound is likely to be um is likely to be um uh the continue to move to the downside. Remember when I bought here as well just to kind of give you the uh the background as well. Technically the euro right was seen as cheap. Yeah. So remember it's pulled back here and the pound is seen or was seen as on the expensive side right and so euro pound when we go to here that's it. So that's really the uh the confluence or one of the confluences that I uh I use. So you can go long there if you're looking for a pullback, then maybe a pullback, maybe a double bottom or maybe even further down into this demand zone before looking at going long or short if you want to trade against my position. Um Euroyen again, Euro Yen, I feel that the euro um should continue to be uh the stronger of the two. Um the chart doesn't necessarily look great when it comes to looking at demand zones. Not a great chart, but we do have bit messy but we do have an area of support and resistance uh that you know you can look towards here probably around here as well. Probably around these lows. Yeah, maybe that low there. So maybe here and then looking for a low also as well. You can go down into that lower time frame. see where there's potential um zones in terms of you know lows and try to trade around uh those lows as well. But on a monthly perspective, this being a monthly high, monthly low, I would look for anywhere around the 184s, right? 184 round number, maybe just a bit higher than that 18450s to then look for potential uh upside as long as again uh there's no intervention. There's no threat of intervention uh on the uh for the uh yen. And then we've got the pound yen and uh again, no surprise we're seeing the pound, you know, strengthen against the yen, right? So I think any pullbacks into a demand zone will be nice. Nice confluence here as well. You've got a level of support and resistance. So if prices do pull back into this area and again we don't have any threat of any kind of intervention. I think that would be nice for a buy. Um again if if the environment does support uh the pound uh pound buys. So looking back here we we've been uh this is actually uh a decent area to look for some long trades, right? Um so looking at the metals and gold again, we were talking about this uh gold's kind of um you know pulling back a bit. Is there a chance prices could move continue to move to the downside? I think so. Gold was always a long-term uh buy, but um in the in the short term, it does look like with inflation uh and and the Federal Reserve maybe looking to potentially hike rates, I think we could see more downside potential for gold. As I said uh earlier um gold is typically a hedge against inflation but in a higher interest rate environment uh investors are really going to choose uh you know a yield right a yielding riskoff uh asset rather than a non-yielding riskoff asset. So any pullbacks into this zone should be um should be I think a sell. If we're looking at this over the last month, then we can look at refining some of these uh these areas here. Nice area there where you can look for uh trades. So somewhere around this one um this 4127 to 4122 area I would say looking for shorts. And of course the better the better the uh the price short the better. Right? If you are looking for longs, you can look for longs if you feel that the dollar is going to get weak. But um remember when you're trading gold or silver, um if you're looking to buy gold, then the dollar really should be on the expensive side. It really should be up in a supply zone or a level of resistance. And we don't see that at the moment. So [clears throat] because of course, you know, this is gold against the dollar, right? So if you're buying gold, you think gold should be cheap. that means that the the the the dollar should be on the expensive side and the dollar isn't on the expensive side. Actually, got the dollar is considered on the cheaper side at the moment. So, um personally, I wouldn't look to buy uh gold even though gold may move to the upside, right? But it wasn't necessarily the smarter move. And the same thing with silver. Um pretty much in the same boat as gold. Um they move in tandem typically. Therefore, you've got areas around actually it's probably broken through that zone. So, the next area you're looking for probably is somewhere around here, right? Or you're probably looking at a weekly zone where weekly discounts, right? From that high to that low probably where you got there and then you've got yeah discount. So you can actually start to look to trade actually anywhere [clears throat] within this zone if you're looking at that weekly uh area there. But with what you'd want to see within that zone, quite a wide zone is areas of support and resistance which actually come down to. So you got that weekly level, weekly high, weekly high, those wicks there and then prices have actually come down to it and actually are touching it. So that's if you do want to be a buyer of uh of silver. Technically it looks nice but fundamentally I would not look to trade that unless I was bearish on um on the dollar and even then the dollar would have to show me that it's on the expensive side before I look to take any kind of short trades. Uh looking at the S&P. So, the S&P um we have here uh S&P uh kind of reacting off of this level of resistance and supply. We kind of not breaking through this alltime high. As a rule of thumb, typically in a high interest rate environment, the uh the S&P um will I wouldn't say necessarily won't do well, but may the upside may be capped. um uh and this is due to just investors having a bit more diversification when it comes to um when it comes to their investments, right? Because although yes, the S&P uh has moved uh moves moves to the moves to the upside, investors will also put their money into higher other higher yielding um assets like uh bonds, government bonds as well as uh you know the US dollar and emerging markets. So, uh, I do think that the upside is capped for now. In a riskoff environment where there's volatility worries, inflation worries, we could see a bit more of a pullback. Overall though, the uh the S&P should should be a buy if you're if you're more of a longerterm investor. Uh, but any pullbacks into these zones. Um and then when the coast is clear when it comes to bit of a resolution on the Middle East or maybe even when the Fed starts to cut rates, right, that would be a great signal. If the if the Fed start to get a bit more doubbish on rates, uh then I think the S&P is going to be a really really good buy. But for now, I'd expect uh the S&P, as I said a couple of weeks ago, the S&P to likely uh remain within uh this range, this auction of prices between that high, the one, sorry, the 763s to the 723s uh for a little while until um we get a bit more clarity on risk sentiment and maybe what the Federal Reserve is doing with interest rates. uh looking at the trade updates and uh last week I wasn't around um but uh we did have some some open trades and uh one of them was the uh CAD Swiss uh took uh profit this week. I was saying to the guys in the group when we was in our group call I'm going to take profit on that one. So that was a nice trade that I only only end up getting into one position. I took 80% off of that uh position when it reached the 1:1 and then the rest of the remaining 20% of that position ended up taking off up here. So I'm out of the uh CAD Swiss and then the New Zealand Swiss. Uh remember we entered here, entered into five positions around here. Uh managed to get in four positions at a one to one and then one position I took off at uh 80% of the what I've considered the uh the auction right here. Uh but it continued to move to the upside. Right. All right. So, that trade actually could have been somewhere around about a 5:1, but end up only being about a 3:1, which is which is fine, which is all right. So, uh, profitable trade nonetheless. As the old saying goes, you can't go broke taking profits, right? So, um, especially when you got good riskrewards. So, um, so that was an overall profitable trade idea trading the New Zealand uh, dollar Swiss. So you can go back to uh my previous videos to look at, you know, my entries, uh my stops and my targets and the new trades. So this week I've got into the pound dollar. So the pound dollar um this was a stop hunt was the reason why I got involved in this. This was the trade setup. Um uh so you got a nice level here. we got a really you know large move uh again based on the uh I think it was the political side of things. It was here fiscal uh fiscal fears ease um and it was of of course you know the fact that um Andy Bernham was was likely to um name secretary Shabbina Mahmood to the um to the chancellor role. Right. Uh but then um I thought to myself, do you know what? I'm still a bit bearish on the pound. I don't I don't know whether this move is, you know, sustainable. So I'm looking at going short. So uh my entry uh zooming down into like the lower time frames, right? When prices came back inside this level, I decided to uh enter right here. Uh, and then I've also got um some sell pending orders above price. So, if prices do pull back, then I'll be able to get involved in several positions as prices, you know, pull back and hopefully it's a better better entries. And all of the uh the positions there the the stop loss is around here, which is going to be the 1.357 uh 78 area. So, let's see what happens with this trade. And then we've got the Euro pound. And again, I went over this a bit earlier, um, where we had, zooming out, we've got this area here, uh, 80% of the weekly zone, uh, a discount and then prices pulled back into that zone and touched it. Right, we had um my entry was around here, right there, right, with about a 15 pip stop below the uh the absolute low. And again, but this this trade though, I haven't got into I haven't set as many pending orders cuz I'm not necessarily um too confident on the on the fundamentals at the moment. So, I've got maybe three positions. So, I've got one uh two pending orders by pending orders right here. So, um if prices do pull back to the 50% and like the uh 95% then I would get involved uh in that. And what that again what that does is that gives me a better riskreward right with uh for the uh for my trades. And all I've got to do really is kind of just win um a couple of those trades, two of those trades to be uh profitable. >> [clears throat] >> So overall uh we should look to for more upside. I think if the pound starts to weaken um the pound is cheap or tra is expensive the euro is on the cheap side. And also as well there's a bank uh a Japanese bank MUFG who are also in this trade as well and they're [clears throat] targeting 87 the 87s right so that's a nice uh 4 to one. So, if I can get in on two positions, I'll take profit on one of those positions and then I'll uh hopefully hold one position up to 87. If it reaches there, that would be a nice 4:1 trade. If not, if I only manage to enter into one position, then what I'll do is I'll get to when I get to a one:one uh trade, which would be somewhere around here, right? The highs here, then I'll just take around 80% off, maybe 75% off, leave a quarter on or 20% on, and then see if that can run up to, you know, the 87 round number. But let's see what happens with those trades. Anyways, I hope you found this analysis useful. Uh hope you have a great trading week. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and uh share the video uh and my content with your fellow trading colleagues if you find it uh helpful. Take care. All the best and speak