Video summary
The video begins by addressing a recent pullback in the stock market driven by rising bond yields and increased volatility, though the speaker emphasizes that this is not a crash but rather a healthy correction. Key indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing minor declines while holding critical support levels near their moving averages, indicating that the broader trend remains intact. While sectors like energy see gains with oil prices climbing due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, precious metals such as gold and silver face headwinds. The speaker also notes a potential rise in the VIX index leading up to the midterm elections, suggesting that investors should consider hedging strategies like put spreads on tech-heavy indices rather than shorting the market directly.
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on specific company earnings reports, highlighting both successes and failures. Home Depot is presented as a positive example, having beaten earnings and sales estimates while reaffirming its guidance for the future; however, the stock needs to reclaim higher price levels to confirm a breakout. In contrast, BYD faces severe challenges after missing earnings expectations and pivoting toward AI, resulting in a sharp drop in share price that reinforces the speaker's caution against heavy investments in Chinese equities due to past losses on similar stocks like Alibaba. Similarly, Afterpay (CLA) disappointed investors despite beating EPS because its revenue guidance fell short of expectations, causing the stock to plummet significantly.
Despite the downturn in certain sectors and individual stocks, the market shows resilience with several software and technology names performing well even on a red day. Companies like Toast, Salesforce, and Apple are highlighted for their strong rebounds or steady gains, suggesting that the "day of software" continues to outperform during broader market weakness. The speaker expresses particular interest in accumulating shares of Google at lower price points, viewing the current dip as an opportunity to build a position after a long absence from buying the stock. Ultimately, the video concludes by advising viewers to stick to their trading principles and avoid gambling on earnings, while maintaining a balanced perspective that acknowledges market risks without succumbing to panic over short-term fluctuations.
Read the full video transcript
So, stocks are selling off a little bit
today, guys. Bond yields are rising, the
10-year and the 30-year. And we have to
break down kind of what's going on the
charts, where my head's at. A couple
earnings that came out from Home Depot,
CLA, I believe. What's the other one
here, guys? Uh, by Chinese company. So,
yeah, let's dive into it. Hit the like
button. Make sure to subscribe. Follow
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And with that being said, guys, cheers.
I appreciate you all for tuning in as
always and let's dive into it. So, as of
right now, the Q's are leading the red.
Go figure, right? on a red day. Uh the
Q's are down 1 and a half% and you guys
can see right here we're starting to
draw down right near the 180 SMA on this
4hour chart as SPY is down not much
really only half a percent also pulling
down towards the 180 moving average. And
if we take a look here, if I extend this
drawing to the right, uh bear with me
here, guys, we're actually approaching a
critical support, which was resistance
for months, which we've talked about
time and time again at 760 on SPY. That
level is holding right now, and it needs
to hold for the bulls here. Um, and that
is right by the 180 SMA as well on this
time frame. So, we're down half a
percent on SPY, about one and a half
percent on the Q's. Uh, the Russell's
down about 1%. Not too bad. This is
actually above both moving averages
still. It just hit all-time highs,
literally two trading days ago, guys.
And it's pulling down not bad at all.
None of these are bad. These are all
healthy pullbacks, by the way. This
isn't a crash. It's not, you know, we're
not going to do a crazy, you know,
dramatic thumbnail with a crash. It's
not, it's not a crash. This is simply a
pullback um in the overall market. And
again, we're holding trend. Russell only
down.9%
after just hitting all-time highs. Dow's
barely down. The Dow Jones is only down
what, less than a quarter percent, about
90 points right now. And buyers are
already coming in above this 50 mo uh
moving average.
You guys see the the green candlestick
being put in. So, we are looking strong
across the board here. Um, even though
we're down across the board, you know,
VIX is up 3.6%. Oil continues to trickle
up. I mean, crude, uh, WTI crude is up 1
and a4%, 85 a barrel. Uh, Brent is at 92
a barrel, up 1%. These are not near the
highs yet from where they were about a
month ago, but we're starting to creep
up again as the US Iran talks are
stalling. Who the heck knows what's
going to happen with that, when it's
going to get resolved. The oil market
clearly believes uh you know, it might
not happen anytime soon. The straight
might be closed for longer. Um so we're
seeing oil continue to to truck along
here, guys. Bitcoin's at 65K, up around
1%, not much as silver and gold are both
down. Uh, silver's down three and a
half% almost. Not the best day for the
metals today, guys. Gold's down about 1
and a4%.
So, it's one of those days. Oil's up,
yields are up, right? 30-year, 10-year,
Bitcoin's up, VIX is up about 4%, which
I feel like the VIX could creep up even
more. Um, I was doing some research on
the VIX around midterms. Um, you know,
usually the VIX does start to creep up
leading into midterms. It peaks, I think
I was reading, um, it usually peaks like
2 to 3 weeks, maybe before the actual
election. Um, so the VIX might might
continue to creep up here, guys. In
fact, I think the VIX futures for
November might already be at 20. Um, so
I mean these th this this is um clearly
starting to creep up. We got way too
complacent on the VIX at 13 14 and uh
it's starting it's starting to pop. I
don't know if it's going to go to 20 25
30 for sure. Uh but you know during
midterm elections historically based on
the data guys that I was looking at um
you know this creeps up to 18 19 20 it
could get above that and uh we'll see
what happens after. Usually like I said
it peaks around two weeks before the
actual election. Uh then it starts to
taper off a little bit. Uh but yeah keep
your eyes on the VIX. The overall market
obviously it's not that big a deal.
We're selling off. How many green days
have we had recently? I mean, not not a
crazy amount, but I mean, if we look on
the 20-day chart, we have been pretty
green. This August, I mean, it's been 3
weeks in August so far, roughly. Um, the
Q's are up a good chunk, about 8% still,
even with this pullback. So, we're we've
been doing well. We've been due for a
little pullback. We're getting it. Now,
if the Q's completely take out 700
again, uh, yeah, that would not be good,
right? But for now, we're nowhere near
that. We're at 718. It's a little
pullback. No big deal. Um, is what I'm
I'm noticing on the charts. But I am
considering some hedges here, guys,
heading into uh midterms, you know,
beyond VIX calls. I talked about that in
uh previous videos. I'm considering put
spreads on the cues right now. Uh I'm
considering potentially puts on SPY, but
I think the Q's make more sense uh for
my personal situation considering I'm in
uh you know a lot of tech stocks, right?
So that would be the proper hedge uh for
me. There there are a bunch of ways to
do it. You can buy you can literally
short the market, which I don't like
doing that. If I'm going to short the
market, I'm buying puts. I'm not
traditionally shorting the market, guys.
uh you know, there's more downside to
that than a fixed amount of um contracts
you buy, uh you know, puts, whatever it
may be. But that's kind of where my
head's at right now. I don't think we're
in a full-blown crash. Obviously, I
think things could get rocky heading
into the midterms, possible, which is
why I'm considering uh potentially VIX
calls, put spreads on the cues. Things
could get a little rocky over the next
couple of weeks, months. Uh, but are we
in a full-blown crash? No, we're not.
That's the reality. Um, so let's cover a
couple of stocks here quickly that had
earnings. Break down the earnings, the
charts, what's going on. So, Home Depot
reported the stocks up 3/4 of a percent.
Not bad in a red day, guys. And this
stock hit 350 initially, I believe, or
you know, once the earnings came out, we
hit 352. Saw the draw down to 330 at
open. Uh, so talk about volatility. Now
we're back to 340. So, Home Depot
reported earnings per share adjusted of
$4.92
versus the $473 estimate on sales of
47.86 billion versus 47.27
billion expected. So, double beat out of
Home Depot. Um, it looks like they got
comparable sales for Q2 up 1.7%.
Comparable sales in the US up 1.3%.
Uh, pretty good. They reaffirmed their
fiscal 26. Um, it looks like guidance is
that for I guess sales and EPS. So, not
bad. Not bad, man. For Home Depot, uh,
they said they received $730 million in
tariff refunds. Um, yeah, a lot of these
corporations, guys, I'm sure you've seen
they're getting crazy tariff refunds,
almost a billion dollar uh, for Home
Depot. And I'm sure you've seen the
other companies uh which we're not going
to get into now, but not a bad quarter
out of Home Depot. Um the reaffirmed
guidance is well reassuring and the fact
that we're up on a red day, we're
consolidating at 340 is a good sign. Uh
but we're not obviously uh breaking out
yet, fully breaking out yet. We need to
take out at least 360. Um you know,
that's right around where we were
obviously back in, you know, earlier
this month. uh back in the early days of
July, back in the middle of April,
that's where we were. So, we need to
ultimately get out of 360 and in the
very short term,
we have to hold uh 340. That's critical
and actually start to rebound back
towards 350, fill the gap to 360 to test
the actual breakout. That's what we need
to do here um you know on Home Depot.
So, let me see what else. What other
companies buy, do reported, which I
didn't look at this one. And oh man,
this thing is tanking, guys. By do's
down 12%, fresh low for the year. Uh
we're down to $91. We hit 165 back in
January. O, what a rough year for BYU.
And this is why, look, I'm not the
biggest fan of Chinese stocks, you know,
having a lot of money in Chinese stocks.
I do own a speculative name right now,
which hasn't been doing well. Um,
admittedly, it's XNET. Uh, it's a very
small position for me, guys. very
negligible quite frankly. But I learned
the Chinese lesson uh you know well the
the Chinese stock lesson uh back in what
early 2020 or what I forget when year a
couple years ago right I bought Alibaba
and it wasn't a negligible position. I I
put a decent amount of money at the time
uh in relation to my overall accounts
and it didn't do well. you know, the the
numbers made sense, everything made
sense, but it didn't do well. And uh you
know, owning a lot of these ADRs, man,
it's it's risky. You know, you could do
well, but I I wouldn't put a ton of
money into them, personally. So, I
learned the bigger lesson with Alibaba.
I dabbled a little bit here with XNET
again a couple months ago and well it's
down but I think there could be more
upside potentially
or there could be upside in general in a
lot of these Chinese names but there's
higher risk and for XATE in particular
I'm just holding on letting it ride um
I'm going to give it another couple
months and we'll re-evaluate uh but
going back to buy do man this thing is
at a fresh low on the year um earnings
let's see what They did quickly EPS. Oh
man, they missed EPS and revenue. A$16
EPS that missed the $135. That's
adjusted EPS on sales of 4.61 billion
versus 4.65 billion. Um, so they double
missed. Oh, not a great sign. Um, it
looks like we're hearing the advertising
cash cow is losing steam. Uh, the buy
they're doing an AI pivot. Let's see how
that plays out. Honestly, I haven't been
tracking by due too much or really many
of these Chinese companies at all. Uh
but you know, if they get low enough, it
might be worth looking deeper into. But
then again, with a super small amount of
money, I much rather just buy a Chinese
ETF if I want to get exposure um to that
theme. Uh so, I don't know. What do you
guys think? By do's falling off a cliff.
I doubt many of you guys own by do.
Maybe I'm sure somebody does out there
watching. Uh but yeah, that's my thought
on Chinese stocks. I learned a bigger
lesson a couple years ago going heavily
into Alibaba. Um and now when I mess
with them, if I even do, I use a
speculative amount of money, a smaller
amount of money, uh you know, just cuz I
lost a decent chunk on Alibaba. That's
the reality. And CLA reported um and
guys, it's down 20%. Uh CLA is not
looking good, man. We thought
potentially it was setting up for a
breakout. This is why I don't gamble on
earnings. A lot of the time it you know
it's it it's um beneficial to me. If I
bought calls on CLA, uh, you know, I
wasn't going to, but let's say I did,
this is this would not be good, you
know, and sometimes when, you know, you
kind of want to gamble on earnings,
you're about to, and you hold off and
you think about your principles in
trading and investing, sometimes you're
you're going to lose out on money.
That's the reality. Uh, but a lot of the
time you're going to save yourself a
bunch of money, right? That's the
reality, too. Um, and for me guys,
listen, I I I don't trade the um the
earnings. And a lot of the time I'm
like, thank God I didn't do it. But
sometimes I'm like, oh, you know, the
greedy side of me comes in and and I'm
like, oh, I should have done it, man.
With Palunteer, I was about to buy calls
on Palunteer. Um, and I would have made
so much money. That's one that I missed
out on. You know what I mean? It's part
of it. It's part of sticking to the
rules of your plan, your your principles
of trading. And for me, I'm just not in
the business of gambling on earnings at
this point, you know. Um, when I first
started trading, when I didn't have much
money 10 years ago, 11 years ago, yeah,
sure, I was gambling on earnings. I was
trying to make a ton of money fast, get
rich quick, and uh, yeah, we we learned
some lessons. So, CLA reported, let me
see here, guys. They reported earnings
of a penny, a whopping penny versus the
loss of 5 cents from last year on sales
of 1.04 billion versus 993 million. Um,
so double beat out of CLA. They see
fullear sales of 4.08 to 4.16 billion uh
versus 4.41 billion. So pretty good
numbers out of CLA for the guidance. Uh,
actually no, that's I read that wrong.
No, that is not good guidance. Okay,
that that is why they're tanking. Okay,
they beat EPS in revenue. I I read it
wrong there, guys. Um but their
guidance, oh my god, they now see 4.08
to 4.16
versus 4.41 billion expected for the
fullear revenue. That is why the stock's
tanking. Um so I mean listen, CLA is one
of those where buy now pay later. You
know, I'm not a big fan of this in
society. You know, when people buy now b
uh pay later for like a burrito or
something, I just face palm and I'm
like, "Oh my goodness, what has America
come to? What has this country come to?"
I get it. Inflation times are tough for
some people. But if you are doing CLA
for a freaking burrito, don't do it.
Don't do it. I mean, this stuff is
crazy. You know, you would think with
the economy
not being so good quote unquote. Uh
Clara would be doing well, but they have
not been doing well. Their stock at
least. Um and it's one of those where
again it's like
I get why people use it, but it's like I
think it's bad for society. Um you know,
you would think the stock would do well,
but it's not. So it's like h I don't
know what to do with it. So I'm just
keeping it on the watch list for now.
And overall, man, not every stock's
down. Not every stock's down today. You
know, the indices are all down. A lot of
these stocks are tanking that we covered
today, but names like, well, Dolingo,
we're up 7%. Some of these software
names are not doing so bad. It's the day
of software. It seems like every time we
have a nasty day on the cues, at least
recently. Um, sometimes, you know, these
software names have been doing pretty
well in the face of the uh the red days.
Um, we have stocks like CRM up 3.3%.
Toast, which I'm long, up 2.7%.
Very nice bounce for Toast today, guys.
And Toast is up roughly off the lows
about 60% 55 60%. So, day of the
software today. Um, Apple's doing well
too when it comes to big tech. Apple hit
311 I think earlier. Now it's back to
309. Uh but still it's up one and a
quarter percent. We're arguably putting
in a bottom here on Apple and I might
trade this thing honestly if it starts
to confirm a bounce back over 315
towards 320. Uh that could be a
confirmation on Apple. So I like the way
that's shaping up. Service Now is up
1.8% on the day. Even Tesla's somehow
squeezing in a green day here. Um you
know and Google I keep looking at Google
guys and I'm like get under 340. I'm
watching it. I'm looking to buy more. We
did get to 338 this morning. I want it
even lower. I want it even lower. Get
under 340, honestly. Get to the 320s and
I'm going to be buying Google. Um, hand
over fist for the first time probably in
like two years. Um, I haven't bought a
ton of Google in the last two years.
I've nibbled here and there, right? But
yeah, I'm waiting for this to come down
a little bit more and I think we might
get it. So, what do you guys think? Let
me know in the comments. Hit the like
button. I'm rambling a little bit, so
let's wrap it up here. Um, and make sure
to subscribe, hit the follow button, and
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that being said, cheers. Have a great
rest of your