Video summary
The video addresses a significant downturn across all major US stock indices, noting that while markets are down, this does not signal a crash or a collapse of the broader trend. The speaker emphasizes that key charts remain healthy, with the S&P 500 (SPY) still holding above the critical resistance level of 660 and staying well above its 180-day moving average. Although the market has pulled back from recent all-time highs around 780, this correction is viewed as a necessary and healthy adjustment after an aggressive rally over the previous few weeks. The volatility is evident with the VIX index rising to nearly 16, yet the speaker maintains that buyers are likely to step in within the 755 to 765 range, keeping the long-term uptrend intact on both four-hour and one-year timeframes.
A major driver of recent market activity is Bitcoin, which has surged over 6% after being stuck in a consolidation range between 58k and 63k for months. This rally is attributed to a combination of falling Treasury yields easing pressure on risk assets and a massive short squeeze involving roughly $2.7 billion in liquidated positions. The speaker highlights the "Clarity Act" as a crucial catalyst, noting that President Trump has urged Congress to pass this legislation by year-end to provide regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. However, there is a caveat: if the Clarity Act fails to pass or is delayed, Bitcoin could easily reverse its gains and retrace much of its recent climb, making the current price action highly dependent on political developments in Washington.
Beyond cryptocurrencies, the speaker discusses specific opportunities in tech stocks like Alphabet (Google) and Robinhood. Google is showing signs of weakness as it breaks below the 340 support level, forming a descending triangle pattern that the author sees as an attractive entry point for long-term accumulation. Simultaneously, the speaker manages a position on Robinhood by selling call options at 106, which are currently up 40% and nearing expiration; he considers closing these positions soon to lock in profits while avoiding assignment if the stock price continues to rise. The overall strategy involves using this market dip to deploy cash reserves into quality assets, viewing the current volatility as a chance to build a stronger portfolio rather than a reason for panic selling.
Read the full video transcript
So stocks are not looking so hot today,
guys. Every index in the US market's
down. We have oil up, the VIX is up, the
metals are up, and somehow some way
Bitcoin is up over 6% on the day, which
don't worry guys, we'll cover that in
this video. The Clarity Act, what the
heck's going on. So guys, hit the like
button, make sure to subscribe, join my
Patreon if you want to keep up with my
portfolio updates, trades, investments,
if you want to be a part of my private
Discord. All that's linked down below in
the bio in the comments or go to
stocksurfest.com/patreon.
And now, cheers. Take a sip of your
coffee. I appreciate you all for tuning
in. Let's dive into it. So again, we're
down across the board. And no, we're not
crashing. This is not a collapse. The
charts still look good. Uh but we're
down. We're seeing more and more
volatility here over the last couple of
days. Now, the VIX is at uh almost 16
again. We're up around 5% on the VIX as
Bitcoin is up over 6%. Crude oil, WTI
crude is up what 2%. We have Brent up
around where the heck's Brent about
1.7%. Gold and silver, they're both
doing well. And again, every index is
down, but listen, the charts still look
good. SPY is still well above 660, which
was resistance for a couple of months.
And as long as we maintain that, the
bulls will be in charge, right? And
let's be honest, we got a little
overbought. We hit all-time highs at
780, which that came what, about a week
ago. So, we've been due for a pullback.
We're now getting it. And this is where
I think buyers will start to come in.
anywhere between 75560
to 765. And oh, by the way, SPY is at
766 right now. So, this is a healthy
pullback. We're still above the 180 SMA.
And the Q's right now, which we're
trading at about what, 712, down around
half a percent. The Q's are also maybe
not looking as great as SPY, but they're
also above the 180 moving average. And
in the grand scheme of things, we're
still in an uptrend on the on the 4hour
chart, on the one-year chart, we're
still in an uptrend. And by the way, do
you guys remember a couple of days ago,
I bought those uh I put a trade on the
put debit spreads? Those are looking
pretty decent right now. Uh which if you
guys are in the Patreon, you saw my
full-on breakdown on that trade. And
it's not a crazy, you know, I didn't put
10 20% of my portfolio in that trade.
Um, it's more so a hedge, a small, you
know, percentage of my portfolio.
But that's why I put it on, guys. That's
why I put the trade on because stocks in
general were super hot. We were running
aggressively for a good 2, three weeks,
all of August, and I figured it was time
to put that trade on. And that was when
the cues were at like 720. And I'm not
in crazy profit yet on that trade. uh
for me to actually get into profit, the
Q's need to go under um seven. Well, my
break even's at 703. Um I think the Q's
Yeah, I I I did the 710 690, so I think
7 Yeah, I'm pretty sure 710. The Q's
need to get down to 703 for me to
recoup, you know, what I you know, the
debit, right? And then anything from 703
down to 690 in that trade is pure profit
for me. And I'm not saying it's going to
happen for sure, right? But it's there
as insurance, right? If the Q's get down
to 690, I'm going to make some decent
money and I'll be able to protect my
portfolio. That's why I put that trade
on. Um, and again, we talk about all
this stuff. I don't want to keep
plugging the Patreon, but that's where
we go even deeper. Um, that's where we
go, you know, the most in depth on these
trades and the ideas. Um, it's all on
Patreon right here. We, you know, we
talk about it, but we more so talk about
a bunch of topics. Um, and we can't
really get crazy in depth in a 10-minute
video. You know what I mean, guys? Uh,
but yeah, the Q's are down, S&P's down,
the Russell is leading, the loss is down
1.1%, the Dow's down about 3/4 of a
percent. And again, all these are fine.
They're all maintaining trends. This is
simply a pullback. And Bitcoin, guys,
Bitcoin, this thing is going berserk.
And we're finally starting to see some
positive price action. Who would have
thought? Go figure. It's about freaking
time, right? Bitcoin was stuck at at 60
to 63K, 58K uh for months. I mean, since
really, well, I guess not that long, but
since the beginning of June, about two
and a half months, we've been stuck in
this little um, you know, range right
here, we've we've been struggling to get
back through um 63 64,000, which was
support uh for quite a bit here back in
the uh in the beginning of the year,
right? And that became resistance for a
little bit. Now we're plowing through
and we're actually starting to fill this
gap all the way to 80 to 80 85k, right?
Do I think for sure it's going to get
there? I don't know. I mean, with
Bitcoin, anything's anything is
possible. This thing could easily go up
10,000 in in in a day, down 10,000 in a
day. Um, and at this point, it is
overbought, but it is slowly filling
this gap to the mid70s. Right now we're
at 73,000 which we haven't been in the
middle low70s um for about 3 months. So
Bitcoin is finally starting to run. Big
resistance though coming up between 75
and 80K. Keep that in mind. And guys, if
it takes out 83K, big if. But if it
does, that's where this gets very very
interesting. That's where things really
will start to pick up in my opinion for
the bulls. um above 80 83K and ideally
you kind of want to already be
positioned for that if you're bullish
Bitcoin big if if you're a believer in
crypto which I know some of you guys
probably aren't and me personally look I
have a little fraction of my portfolio
in Bitcoin so I'm not a huge I I believe
in Bitcoin crypto but I'm not one of
these maximalists I'm far from it quite
frankly but I do think you should have a
little bit and that's where I'm at. Um,
either way, this is something that
you've been waiting for for a while. And
let me not yap too much. Let me pull up
this article here on CNBC. Um, and by
the way, guys, smash that like button.
Make sure to subscribe. Hit that follow
button if you haven't done so already.
It helps me out overall in the
algorithm. So, we're hearing about the
Clarity Act. We're seeing Trump meeting
up with all these crypto leaders. And if
we come down here a little bit, it's
trading at the highest levels since
June. Really, thanks to a lastditch
effort push from the White House and the
crypto industry leaders to get the
Clarity Act across the finish line in
the coming weeks. And listen guys, this
pump in Bitcoin could easily be um sold
off if we don't get the Clarity Act um
to get pushed through, right? it it's
pretty obvious that that that's how it's
going to play out. If the Clarity Act
doesn't happen, Bitcoin's probably going
to give back a lot of these gains,
especially if it runs up even more. Now,
it's at 73 72. If it goes to a 75
handle, 80, right? It's probably going
to get um nailed if this doesn't get
pushed through or maybe it gets pushed
back months. Who knows, right? Uh but at
this point, this is what crypto is
running on. finally a catalyst, a good
catalyst, probably the best one we've
seen, you know, in in a long time. You
know what I mean? It's this thing's been
stuck. Like I said, it's been stuck all
year. And the rally began Wednesday when
Treasury yields really started to pull
back um sharply. I'm sure you guys see
that, easing pressure on risk assets.
And that helped trigger a broader move
into crypto that was later amplified by
a massive short squeeze with roughly
$2.7 billion in crypto short positions
liquidated. So this is a mix of you know
a great catalyst which led to shorts
panicking covering which then led to a
short squeeze and let's be honest
there's probably there's probably some
whales piling in to push this up even
higher. I mean, I haven't looked at the
volume too much. Uh, but it it's
spiking, but we we haven't, you know,
dove I haven't d or dove too deep into
it, but volume's kicking up. You could
speculate there are some whales starting
to buy back in here on, you know, the
good news around the Clarity Act, blah
blah blah, Trump meeting with um all
these guys. And we can see the White
House hosted the CEOs of leading crypto
companies. Like I said, man, uh
Coinbase, Kraken, Robin Hood, Ripple,
and Chain Link at a lastminute event in
which President Donald Trump urged
Congress to pass a fair version of the
crypto market structure bill known as
the Clarity Act before the end of the
year. And the meeting came in advance of
the Commodity Futures Trading
Commissions, uh you know, an inaugural
innovation advisory committee meeting
taking place on Thursday. Um and Trump
said we need Congress to take the next
steps by passing the Clarity Act, a fair
version of the Clarity Act. It's very or
a very very powerful structured
legislation which will keep us ahead of
China, keep us ahead of everyone else,
will open the door to the next wave of
innovations and innovators. And Trump's
call for a fair version reflects the
sticking point with Democrats who have
pushed for tougher ethics rules that
would prevent the president and other
public officials from personally
profiting from crypto while Republicans
have resisted provisions they view as
overly targeted or restricted. So listen
guys, we're not going to get too
political here. Uh we don't get
political obviously, but at the end of
the day, man, I am against um you know,
politicians trading individual stocks.
I'm against uh you know, obviously the
president um you know, pumping crypto
coins. I mean, what he had he he had his
uh you know, what was it called? The um
Trump coin, whatever the heck, man. The
Trump family has gotten insanely rich um
you know, in the uh in this market. um
you know he's giving his his buddies
stock tips you know before big
announcements or maybe that's all
conspiracy I don't know and listen I'm
not against the president you know I I'm
just I I speak I speak the reality you
know I say I say what it is whether it's
a Democrat or a Republican in office I
am not for these big people in in
politics um to to trade individual
stocks crypto make legislation that
benefits them, you know, pump pump. You
know, I'm not all for the pumping.
Obviously, right? Um, and I think I
think politicians like President Trump,
Nancy Pelosi, you know, people in
Congress, whatever, congressmen,
congresswoman, they should be allowed to
own index funds. Sure, go buy the S&P,
go buy the NASDAQ, but buying
individual, you know, little biotech
companies or even, you know, bigger
stocks, bigger companies, larger market
caps, that in my opinion could lead to a
conflict of interest, and it's just not
a good place to be in. So, I think
ultimately um there's a chance that
Congress will be banned from trading
stocks. Who knows when or if that will
actually happen. Uh but I think they
should be able to buy like a VU, an S&P,
a VTI. That should be allowed. Go ahead.
Because at the end of the day, you want
your president, you want your uh people
in Congress to have an interest in the
country doing well. It's like when you
work in uh you know, when you work at at
a job, right? you get sometimes stock in
that company, options in that company,
stock options, and that, you know,
incentivizes you to do better, to do
well, to push the company forward, to do
the right things. Um, and that's kind of
the same idea here. But I think it's
better again if they can own broad-based
ETFs, have the um you know h have
um essentially their money tied to you
know the country's prosperity and uh
that will make them work harder. That
that's the point, you know. May maybe it
doesn't work, maybe it's all BS. I don't
know. But at this point, that's the
quick rundown on crypto. We got a little
sidetracked there, guys. I don't know
why we we went on that rant, but yeah,
I'm against the uh the Congress trading.
I'm sure a lot of you guys are as well.
Um the president, I mean, okay, maybe if
his son's trading, okay, what can we do
about that? But President Trump, uh you
know, placing trades or any president,
any person high up there, um it doesn't
make sense to me. Anyway, anyway, uh
what do you guys think about that? Let
me know in the comments. So, with that
being said, let me show you some of
these crypto stocks. Coinbase is up 9%
of course it's it's uh you know uh
gaining even more from yesterday's pop.
So this thing is up now over the last
two days about 20%. Stocks like Circle
Internet Group which I used to own. Um I
sold it months and months and months
ago. Um now this thing is up 8%. We're
up around uh 25 bucks off the recent low
45%. So, this thing is going bananas
right now as let's see what's another
one. What was it? Oh, Robin Hood. Forgot
about Robin Hood. Where the heck's that
one today? Um, is it down? Wait a
second. Did Robin Hood somehow go down?
Um, yeah, it is down 3/4 of a percent.
Robin Hood was up earlier, which is why
I'm like, what? What the heck? What's
going on? Um, this thing hit 102 in the
morning. Yeah, this thing was at 102 in
the morning, guys. Now it's at 95. That
actually might be a gift for me.
considering in my one account I sold
calls on Robin Hood. So, let me actually
see or maybe I'll just do this after the
video, guys. But let me see quickly what
those calls are looking like right now.
I sold the 106 calls that expire on the
28th. So, next Friday, um those are
expiring and I I am up 40% on those. So,
I am doing pretty well. I probably
should close that out maybe tomorrow.
Um, if this crypto stuff continues, if
we get more good news around the Clarity
Act, Robin Hood's probably going to rip
to 105 110 next week, maybe. I'm not
saying for sure. And and I don't really
want my shares called away, but the uh
the premium sometime is too juicy. Uh
they're they're too juicy to say no to,
but yeah, Robin Hood's pushing or it
was, now it's down. I feel like this
could be a time to add and it could be a
time for me to close out those calls I
sold, guys, so I don't get assigned. Uh,
but either way, that's pretty much it
for those crypto stocks. And listen,
there are a lot of other stocks that are
down. Forget the crypto stocks. Forget
crypto for a second. Google is finally
starting to fall into my lap a little
more. I didn't buy any. I didn't buy
any. Uh, but I've been saying for days,
watch 340. Watch 340. Watch for that to
break. We have a descending triangle.
Now we're starting to break 340. We're
at 338 earlier in the day. I think we
hit 335,
336. So, it's starting to come down.
This is a good sign, especially if you
want to buy longterm, which I'm looking
to add more to my long-term stake. Um,
and if this thing were to come down,
like I said before, 315, 320, even 330,
another $8 down from here, I'm looking
to add another chunk. Um, and I have a
good amount of cash on the sidelines,
guys, throughout my accounts. Um, ready
to take advantage of not just Google,
but other stocks I'm watching as well.
You know, the overall market. Um, it's
exciting times. It's exciting times and
yeah, it's it's a rocky day. So, what do
you guys think? Let me know in the
comments. Hit the like button,
subscribe, join my Patreon if you want
to keep up with my portfolio updates, my
trades, investments, if you want to be a
part of my private Discord. All that's
down below pinned in the comments or go
to stocksurfest.com/patreon
or check out the bio. I'll see you guys
in there. And with that being said,
cheers. Have a great rest of your