Video summary
The stock market is facing a rough start to the week as nearly every major index experiences declines, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all posting losses while the Dow Jones barely manages a negligible gain. Amidst this broader downturn, Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, currently trading around $80,000, though the speaker notes that a decisive breakout requires clearing resistance levels near $82,000 to $83,000. While the market pullback is viewed as healthy as long as key support levels like 760 are maintained, there is growing concern if prices break below these thresholds, which could signal a deeper correction back to earlier lows seen in June. The speaker also highlights that while crypto-related stocks have been resilient, traditional AI and semiconductor names are under significant pressure, with leaders like Nvidia and CoreWeave facing sharp declines.
In contrast to the struggling tech sector, the speaker identifies several strong candidates for investment, starting with Visa, which has broken out of a long consolidation pattern and is showing momentum toward $400. Another standout recommendation is Mercado Libre (MELI), a company the speaker has held throughout the year after buying into the dip; despite a significant drop earlier in the year, the stock's strong fundamentals and free cash flow suggest it is poised for further gains, potentially reaching levels between $2,200 and $2,300. The technical setup for Mercado Libre appears favorable with an emerging inverse head and shoulders pattern, while Robinhood is also highlighted as a beneficiary of renewed crypto optimism, having surged over 20% recently as Bitcoin stabilizes above key support levels.
However, the transcript also addresses the volatility in memory and semiconductor stocks, where names like SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave have been hammered by recent selling pressure. The speaker expresses regret over missing out on put options on CoreWeave earlier in the week but now considers that some of these oversold assets might be due for a "dead cat bounce," offering opportunities to play short-term rebounds rather than continuing to sell down. While caution is advised regarding stocks like Nebius, which recently spiked unexpectedly, the speaker suggests that RSI indicators have cooled off on several names, making them potentially attractive for contrarian plays. Ultimately, the video concludes by emphasizing patience and the importance of buying quality assets at discounted prices, while directing viewers to their Patreon for real-time trade updates and deeper analysis of these market movements.
Read the full video transcript
Well, let's just say it's a rough start
to the week for the stock market, guys.
Every index but the Dow is down. And
guys, the Dow's barely up what? A
quarter percent? Not even. The Russell's
down over half a percent. The Qs are
down over 1.1%.
Yeah, Qs are slipping, guys, as the
S&P's down 0.4%. The VIX is up 5% and
Bitcoin continues to run, guys.
Bitcoin's at 80K, which I'll show you
the charts, give you my thoughts in this
video. So, let's dive into it. Hit the
like button. Make sure to subscribe.
Join my Patreon if you want to be a part
of the community, see my trades, all
that stuff. Link down below in the
comments and the bio. Go to
stosservest.com/patreon.
And now, let's dive into it. Oh, by the
way, cheers, guys. Happy Monday. I
appreciate you all
for tuning in. So, the S&P, again, we're
down on the S&P. Qs are down, the the
Nasdaq 100, and the Russell is down. And
the Dow's barely up as Bitcoin is
running. And even though we're down on
SPY, guys, we're still above the 180
SMA. We're still holding 760, which I've
been saying every single video almost on
the channel. As long as we hold 760,
guys, this is going to be just a healthy
pullback. You know, honestly, 750 to
760, quite frankly.
As long as we're above this old
resistance as support,
we're going to be fine. Now, if we start
breaking through 755, 750, you know, now
we're opening up ourselves,
you know, to to the downside. This might
be coming down to 725, 730, which is
where we were back in when? Just
recently, end of July, you know, back in
the end of June, early June. So, the
pullback now, as of now, is healthy, but
it gets starts to get a bit ugly if we
get under 750, 755 in my opinion the way
I'm seeing these charts. And on the Qs
guys, this is already starting to get
ugly. You know, the Qs never really
fully broke out. You know, we haven't
hit all-time highs since June as opposed
to the other indices that have hit
all-time highs in the last couple of
weeks, right? Recently.
So the Qs now are breaking down. This is
why I opened up that put debit spread
trade and it's doing pretty well. I'm
making some money on it on my hedge
guys, nothing crazy, right? I'm not
going all in on this trade. Like I said
when we mentioned it, but that is why
you put those types of trades on and I
put it on at the right time honestly,
not to toot my own horn.
But yeah, we're looking pretty good.
Those
yeah, those spreads are I think I'm up
15% or 20% almost roughly on the debit.
So
yeah, not bad. Not bad for now and I'm
planning on holding those for a little
bit longer here. So the Qs are slipping.
Nothing too crazy. We're not collapsing,
but if we start taking out I I would get
a bit, you know, concerned on the
downside if we take out 690
which is right here. If I draw this out
zoom in that was the low from back in
the middle of June early June. If that
level breaks, yeah, I might be like,
okay, we might be slipping a little bit
further at that point. But the Bitcoin
guys, they're like, hey, we're we're
doing great. We're doing well, but
Bitcoin's not fully breaking out. Like I
said before, this needs to break through
82 to 83K. We're right at 80 now. Hey,
maybe it's going to happen now today,
tomorrow, who knows. But we need to take
the highs out from May from the early
mid middle of May. We need to get out of
there guys.
At that point, all right, maybe we're
talking about a full-on breakout and
there's a lot of
um, you know, hype right now around the
Clarity Act.
Be careful. If something happens, it
gets pushed back. Either way, maybe it
goes through, we get a sell the news
event. A lot can happen with the price
of Bitcoin. Don't just think it's going
to go straight through 100k. We could
get a sell the news event here. You
know, a lot of optimism is priced in
right now, which is good. It's been a
long time coming,
uh, but it could
also pull back aggressively still. Don't
And you guys know that. If you're in
crypto, if you've been studying Bitcoin
for years, you know that. I mean,
listen, I started buying Bitcoin in
2017. And no, I didn't hold it all till
now. I wish I did. Um, you know, I
bought Bitcoin, I think it was at like
3,000, 4,000 when I first started, um,
you know, messing with it in 2017.
And I saw it go to 19k, 20k. Do you guys
remember that first cycle?
Um, you know, that big cycle that we saw
at that time?
That was a crazy time. I locked in my
gains. I should have just held.
Um, and obviously we then pulled back,
we crashed. It was rough, then it ran up
again, it crashed, it ran up again. So,
yeah, I mean, this this could have legs
potentially, but don't be naive to the
fact that, hey, this could also pull
back 15% in a day, 10% in a day. And
yeah, it's getting more stable, I guess.
The moves aren't as sharp as they used
to be.
Um, now that it's becoming more adopted,
there's more actual money in uh,
Bitcoin. It's growing as an asset class.
It's It's stabilizing a bit, but you
know, the the moves could be sharp. But
hey, right now a lot of these stocks,
guys, they're doing well. The uh, the
crypto-related stocks. So, let's go over
now what I'm looking at, a couple of
stocks I'm watching, and by the way, the
the AI names, the semi stocks today are
not looking so great. Nvidia's down 3%.
We have CoreWeave down, we have the Neo
Clouds, memory's getting squashed,
optics, the picks and shovels, you name
it, guys. Everything is down. We'll talk
more about that later, but for now,
let's go over Visa, which did we not
call this out recently? Visa is ripping.
And this honestly could have legs, in my
opinion, to $400.
I don't know if it goes straight to
$400, it might pull back, probably will,
considering it's a little overbought
now, but this breakout, we saw the
writing on the wall. I forget what
video, but we covered it recently, you
know?
And it's completely taken out 370 to
375, the ascending triangle's playing
out. This is everything we could have
asked for, you know what I mean? This
thing's taken out, you know, taken off.
And it's been a long time coming,
considering we just hit 360 back in the
beginning of this year.
Um, and we then sold off, and we kind of
got right back to 360, so we didn't do
anything all year, even though it's up
from the lows a good amount. So, now
it's finally starting to break through,
and I think again, this move could have
a legs to $400, in my opinion. What do
you guys think? I think this the start
of it's the start of a breakout, and
Visa was at, literally, I just realized,
360 back in March of 2025. So, we've
been stuck in this 350, 360 level, um,
for for about a year and a half, right?
Yeah, a year and a half. Um, now we're
finally starting to get out of here. I
think there's going to be some, uh, you
know, momentum on Visa. Not like a crazy
tech stock or any, you know, like like a
penny stock or something, but it's a bit
it's a big company, obviously, but a lot
of money's been coming into Visa, I've
noticed, in these 13F's that I've been
looking through.
Um it looks like we're getting that
breakout. Looks like the uh the smart
money knows what what they're doing
after all. Or or do they? I don't know.
What do you guys think? Cheers. Let me
get some coffee.
All right.
Oh man, that's that's pretty bitter
today, guys. Uh I don't know what what
the heck. Maybe I have to get a
different coffee, but either way I don't
I don't really put milk or anything in
my coffee anymore, guys. You know, it's
crazy how times change, you know? Your
taste buds change over time. I'm
realizing that now as I'm entering into
my 30s, right?
Uh you know, it's like, "Oh, you you
like things that that aren't sweet now."
And that's been the the case for me uh
for a couple years now. So, yeah, I'm
pretty much a black coffee guy. Even
when I get espresso, wh- which I drink
espresso obviously all the time, I just
drink it black, you know? It's just
Sometimes it gets a little bitter
though, but it I like it, honestly.
Either way, we're not going to talk
about that. We need to talk about more
stocks here. Mercado Libre, MELI is
starting to break out, too.
Go figure. Who called that out? I called
that out, and I'm in this stock. Um and
I've been in this stock all year, and I
am up you know, on the position now. Um
I think there's a lot more to go. I
think Mercado Libre fundamentally is a
great company. Nobody's denying that.
Nobody has denied that. Um but but the
thing is, their free cash flow got
nailed, their margins got nailed. We
we've talked about this so many times,
so we're not going to get into it, but
investors almost panicked, too much in
my opinion. This stock got to $1,400.
Uh when was that? Back in dot dot dot
May? Yeah, that was a drop of 35% from
where we were in January. So, I I buying
that dip. I bought a good chunk at 1530
after earnings, or was it 1550? Either
way, I bought in the 15s and
I've just held, right? I continue to DCA
throughout the entire year. My average
cost now is about 1750 to 1800 across
two accounts and we're really starting
to take off now. This is where patience
and buying quality on a discount starts
to pay off. And obviously, we're nowhere
near where I think Mercado Libre could
get, uh but we're starting to break out
in the short term here on the charts.
Um and long term, I think we're going a
lot higher, but even in the short term
here, this could be a play
between two to 2200,
right? 2300 if things get really hot on
the breakout. Um this could run. I could
easily see it go up 10%, right? I'm not
saying for sure, not financial advice,
do your own research, but
I just love the way it's it's shaping up
on this time frame. And the inverse head
and shoulders, I know some of you guys
are like, "Stoss, technicals, uh come
on, they don't work."
I I know a lot of you agree they do work
though. We see this clearly is setting
up. I mean, come on. Inverse head and
shoulders, we're we're starting to pop.
This looks like it wants to go 2000
plus. What do you guys think? I don't
know. Maybe I'm crazy. Maybe I need to
get my eyes checked. I don't know. But
Robinhood's another one that I've been
saying Robinhood, Robinhood, Robinhood.
Now crypto is acting as a tailwind,
which we're not surprised. We were
calling that out. Um ever since Bitcoin
shot up a couple days ago, Robinhood's
gone from $90 a share, right? 5 days
ago, now it's at 108. Robinhood's up 20%
off that low. And think about, let's say
let's say for for example,
hypothetically, this is not guaranteed,
but if Bitcoin continues this momentum,
let's say we hold this 80k level. It
starts to creep up 85 90k and we
actually hold that as a new base. More
trading volume comes in. Sentiment is
already shifting to bullish now. I mean,
if it went to 80 90k and it held that,
sentiment would be very strong. This
would encourage more trading, you know,
more people are going to come out of the
woodwork after taking a year off crypto.
They're going to be buying, trading,
doing their thing. Altcoins are going to
come back, you know, the smaller coins
are going to come back slowly, not all
of them, obviously, but the point is
once we see all that in their upcoming
quarter, could you imagine
if Robinhood, I know last quarter they
they reported, they barely talked about
crypto. Why would they? I mean, crypto's
getting squashed, but next time they
report, if that number if those numbers
are massively
you know, if they've improved big time,
which they will if this volume
continues, if we maintain 80k 90k
eventually, let's see,
that's going to push the stock up even
further. Unless it prices it in already.
I mean, if Robinhood shoots to 120 130
before, you know, the next quarter, for
example, maybe it's already priced in,
but
either way, that's going to be a
tailwind. And once it starts showing up
in the numbers,
yeah, things are going to get juicy with
this stock. You know, granted if
Could you imagine now crypto starts to
go up, but the stock market crashes? If
that happens, okay, Robinhood's going to
have more trouble on their hands, but if
the stock market holds up, Bitcoin
shoots up, holds 80 90,
you know, heading into that next quarter
earnings report, I think it's going to
be big news for Robinhood. We'll see.
Amazon's another one which it's starting
to hold 260
Um which I'm not in you know a decent
amount of my my Amazon you know I got my
shares called away I locked in profits
but I still hold the stock and I'm
looking to actually potentially
get back into a trade here at the right
time. No need to rush it you know I just
made a good amount of money on Amazon
but
it's holding 260 looks like we're trying
to bounce off here we're not fully
confirming the pop out of this little
downtrend
but we're getting there we're getting
there on Amazon guys keep your eyes on
it on the one hour time frame Google as
well which I wasn't going to mention but
Google is getting some buying at 340. We
can see kind of an inverse head and
shoulders not 100% but we can kind of
see it right here
on Alphabet you guys notice it so that's
a decent sign.
I'm long for those that don't know you
know Google and Amazon and look at
memory today guys I was about to hop in
on a SanDisk trade this morning I was
watching it on the intraday
early on in the first couple of minutes
of trading I was going to buy it down
here looking back I would have been up a
little bit but man these names are
getting destroyed 8% down on SanDisk
Micron is down I think 10% no 7% it was
down more earlier.
We have let's see here what else is
getting hit Coherent down Navios man I
told you guys about this my biggest
regret the last week trading wise
has been not buying the puts on
Coreweave I swear to God I was about to
buy puts on Coreweave at 110 105 man
that would have been the best trade I've
made in the last couple weeks. We're now
at $85. Now I feel like it's too late to
buy puts I I I I know I don't know if
it's too late for sure. I mean, I can't
say for sure, but
a lot of the selling has been, you know,
has been done. This thing's down 30% off
the recent high. RSI is already down
pretty low here. So, if anything, man, I
feel like we might get a dead cat bounce
um in these Neo clouds over the coming
days potentially.
Um you know, let's see how the Qs do,
but the Neo clouds might be due for a
dead cat in my opinion. Um Core Weave,
Nebius, watch out for those two. Nebius'
chart, honestly, doesn't look bad at
all. I was about to buy puts on Nebius,
uh but I got a little spooked. I I kind
of went with the safer route, Core
Weave. Nebius shoots up like crazy, man.
Last thing I want to do is buy puts on
Nebius and this thing goes up 30% on the
day, which it did one day.
Um and I was thinking about it at 260 or
250. So, I would have lost money
initially cuz it got to 285. Uh but now
it's at 208. So, if you hold puts, you
know, if you have conviction on an
overbought stock, sometimes it shoots up
a little more in the short term, but
then ultimately you could be right. But,
again, I didn't take that trade, full
disclosure.
Um I'm considering potentially now doing
the opposite, playing the the dead cat
bounce on some of these.
Um again, I was looking at SanDisk this
morning. By no means is it too late. I
mean, this thing could easily rip to 16,
1700, who knows. Uh but I think some of
these are getting too whacked down
um over the last couple days. SanDisk
hit 1800, now we're at 1400. So, a lot
of the shorts, a lot of these guys that
came in played the overbought trade,
they made money. I don't know how much
more money they're trying to squeeze
out, but
I think RSI has come down to a healthy
spot. I think it might be a decent time
uh to play the bounce. I don't know
about Micron, though. This one's still a
little uh on the charts. I think SanDisk
looks a little cleaner,
but we'll see. I'll keep you guys posted
as always on what I do. All my trades,
all that stuff is on Patreon if you're
interested. We obviously talk about it
here as well on these videos,
but it's real time on Patreon. You get
to see screenshots, all the breakdowns,
the reports, my, you know,
you get part of my or get to be part of
my private Discord. All that's linked
down below in the comments and the bio.
Go to stossereffect.com/patreon.
And with that being said, cheers. I
appreciate you all for tuning in. I'll
see you in the next video.