Video summary
The video begins with an overview of a surprisingly strong market session where most major indices, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, posted gains, alongside significant rises in gold, silver, and oil. The only notable exception was the Nasdaq Composite, which dipped slightly despite recovering from early morning lows to trade near its opening levels. Bitcoin also experienced a substantial rally, climbing over 6% to approach the $70,000 mark, a move the speaker attributes potentially to large institutional buyers rather than fundamental shifts in the crypto sector. Consequently, cryptocurrency-related stocks such as Coinbase and Robinhood saw notable increases, with Robin Hood gaining around 5-6% as it attempts to break out of previous resistance levels near its 180-day moving average.
A significant portion of the analysis focuses on recent earnings reports from major retail companies, highlighting divergent reactions in the market. Lowe's reported earnings that beat adjusted EPS expectations but missed sales targets and offered slightly softer guidance for the full year; however, the stock price rallied despite these mixed results, suggesting to the speaker that the share price may be nearing a bottom similar to historical patterns seen in previous summers. In contrast, Target delivered a "double beat" by crushing both earnings per share estimates and sales figures, leading to a strong 6% surge in its stock price and raising its future guidance. TJX Companies also posted a double beat on earnings and sales but faced weak sentiment due to softer comparable sales growth projections, causing the stock to decline; the speaker views this dip as a potential buying opportunity if the stock bounces from current mid-140s levels.
Beyond retail, the transcript covers several other technology and automotive stocks that are testing key resistance levels. The speaker expresses strong bullish sentiment toward Marqeta, which is up significantly after digesting its earnings, predicting a breakout above $20,000 once it clears immediate overhead resistance, driven by robust fundamentals like free cash flow and margins. Similarly, software giants like Salesforce and Adobe are approaching multi-month highs, while Tesla has recovered to the mid-$300s following a recent dip but is not yet considered fully out of the woods until it breaks above $375 or $400. The speaker notes that while short-term volatility and noise often shake out investors, long-term value remains tied to these underlying fundamentals, particularly for companies like Marqeta where the business model appears undervalued relative to its performance.
In conclusion, the speaker adopts a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investing, emphasizing patience over forcing trades every day. While holding a good amount of cash, he identifies specific setups worth pursuing, such as adding to his Google position once it breaks out of its current consolidation range around $340. The overall strategy involves waiting for clear technical breakouts and favorable risk-reward scenarios rather than chasing momentum blindly. The video ends with a reminder that while the market is currently green across the board, investors should remain vigilant about upcoming earnings dates for major tech companies like Nvidia and CrowdStrike, which could introduce further volatility before the year concludes.
Read the full video transcript
All right, here we go, guys. How's it
going? It's your boy Stas here. Got my
good old double espresso as always. When
do I not write? Cheers. I appreciate you
all for tuning in as we have to break
down the market, talk about where my
head's at, a couple of earnings that
just came out and in general what I'm
looking to buy in the market today and
overall these next couple of days. As as
of now, we are up across the board
except for the Q's, which the Q's are
only down.1%.
The VIX is down 4%. And we have the Dow,
let's see, up around a quarter percent.
S&P up around a quarter percent as well.
Russell up half a percent. Gold's up 3%.
Same with silver. And Bitcoin is having
itself um a day today, guys. We're
pushing 70K on Bitcoin, up around 6% as
of this video. And somebody asked me in
Discord, why do I think Bitcoin's going
up? Honestly, I have no idea, right? You
know, I'm not the biggest crypto guy. My
guess would be without doing much
research into it. Probably a whale just
bought today. You know, a big buyer came
in, bought a bunch of Bitcoin, pushing
the price up. That could be or or maybe
a bunch of these big buyers at once at
once. That could be what's going on here
on Bitcoin. And a lot of these Bitcoin
related stocks, Circle Internet Group,
Coinbase, a couple other names are
running today. Robin Hood's up 5 a 12%.
Go figure, right? They have a decent
amount of exposure um to Bitcoin. So,
we're going to cover that a bit in this
video, guys. The stocks um and overall,
again, where my head's at earnings. So,
hit the like button, make sure to
subscribe, join the Patreon if you want
to keep up with my portfolio updates,
trades, private Discord, all that's
linked down below in the bio and the
comments. Go to
stocksurfest.com/patreon.
I'll see you all in there. All right,
with that being said, cheers. Let's uh
let's get to it. So, Bitcoin again,
massively green. Dow, S&P, Russell,
everything's up except for the Q's,
which at this point, I wouldn't be
surprised if we did go green later
today. I mean, we're already up around
six or four, five, $6 um off the lows.
We were we were popping in the morning
on the cues and we dumped aggressively
at open. So, we ran in the pre-market,
dumped that open to 712 after closing
over 720 or opening over 721. So, we had
a major drop off, saw the rebound to
719. Um, you know, now it's starting to
fall again. This could easily run into
close right at this point. And again, I
wouldn't be surprised if it did that and
we did go green. And overall, the bulls
want that considering that would lead us
bouncing off of this 180 moving average
on this 4hour chart at about 712 7:15.
Uh, which we're seeing some buying
coming in at that point. Uh, but we're
not obviously, you know, confirming the
breakout or the pop again off that
support. And the Q's desperately need to
break out of 720, 725. That is a
sticking point. It has been pretty much
since the beginning of July. A good 30
45 days at this point. Um, so the
overall market looking pretty good. It's
looking pretty good today. Oil's up as
well, which isn't the best. Uh, but a
green day is a green day. And the cues I
think will go green probably um later
today. So, let me share with you all a
couple of earnings from today. Uh, we
had Lowe's, we had Target, we had TJX.
So, let's run through these quickly.
Then we'll break down some other stocks.
There's so much movement today, guys.
So, Lowe's is number one. This stock is
up two and three/4ers of a percent after
earnings. And the company reported,
let's see here, which I'm not surprised
they're going up, by the way. Uh, we'll
talk about that in a second. They
reported earnings per share adjusted of
$440 versus $422 expected on sales of
25.95 billion versus 26.15 billion. So
they missed sales a little bit. Uh they
beat adjusted EPS. Let's see here. They
see full year 26 sales of 92 billion.
They saw before 92 to 94 billion. So
maybe a little soft on that guidance.
But listen guys, this stock was so
beaten up into earnings, right? So the
fact that we're rebounding on a miss on
revenue, maybe a little softness in the
guidance, that's a very good sign that
we may be at the bottom. Who knows? Not
saying for sure we are. Uh but it's a
good sign that we're nearing the bottom
even though they're narrowing um some of
their guidance here. Looks like their
updated full year 26 outlook reflects
first half results. Current demand
trends are looking good. Blah blah blah.
Uh let's see. They see full year 26 EPS
of around 1175. They had seen about 1175
to 1225. So they're narrowing the
guidance but they're not cutting it.
Right. the the the estimate is still
within the lower end of the range uh
from what we saw before, which is fine.
They're not cutting it. If they cut the
guidance, yeah, maybe the stock would be
down. Uh but the fact that we're
rebounding on narrowing guidance, they
missed revenue, that could be a sign
we're nearing a bottom. Maybe we're at
the bottom if the stock is reacting this
way. Could you imagine if they had a
blowout beat? Uh man, this thing would
be ripping. And we we covered how in
another video lows plays out very
similarly or at least it has the last
couple of years. Each time July, you
know, August rolls around, it starts to
turn back up here. And we can see on the
chart 220 210 has been support for years
and it did this last summer, right? We
hit 2 uh 210, got all the way to 275,
280. And we did this the summer before
that. we hit 210, 220, rallied all the
way to 280. So, I think something
similar is shaping up here uh for lows.
And the fact that the stock is up and
it's consolidating still, but it's
moving up after earnings that maybe
weren't the best, that's a good sign um
that we could be at the bottom. And
listen, the breakout spot I would say is
225230 on this name. Um and we're
getting close. So, I'm going to set my
alert at 225 on lows. I honestly I
really like this for a trade, guys,
heading into uh the the back half of
this year. Um I think there's a decent
chance. Maybe not 280, that might be
aggressive or 275, but there's a decent
chance lows gets back to the mid200s
um at the very least in my opinion. So,
that's a quick rundown on Lowe's. Target
also reported earnings and uh let's see
what Target did. TGT is up around 6%.
Very nice pop for Target. So these
retailers, guys, looking pretty good.
Target um Q2 adjusted EPS 411 which
crushed the $2.33 estimate. Uh what a
beat there, guys. Sales 26.53
billion versus 26.14 billion. So very
nice double beat out of Target. uh they
expect 26 adjusted EPS to range between
$9.90 to $10.90 versus the $852
estimate. So guys, their their guidance
is very strong for um on that side of
things. I'm not seeing uh revenue
revenue revenue. I'm not seeing it. But
listen, Double Beat and they raise
adjusted EPS guidance that is very good
in and of itself. Stocks popping. We're
at fresh highs for the year probably on
the one year. Yeah, on the one year as
well, the three-year maybe. Uh, not
quite yet, but we're getting close to
where we were now back in April of 2024.
And honestly, that's where we're
probably heading. $180,
um, is probably where we're going. Not
for sure, not guaranteed, but in the
short term, I could see that happening.
So, Target looks good. TJX also reported
um, this stock's down 3 and a half 4%
roughly right now. Uh the stock reported
or the company reported stock tanked uh
from 155 all the way to 140. It saw a
little relief at open uh but now it's
drifting down into the back half of the
day. Not the best look uh for TJX. They
reported earnings. Let's see guys. Uh
adjusted EPS $1.22 that beat the $119
sales also beat 15.18 versus 15.16
billion. Uh so double beat out of TJX.
They expect adjusted EPS for Q3 uh to
range between $1302.
Uhup
let's see they see Q3 adjusted EPS of
$1302 which I just said versus the $134
estimate. So that was a little soft uh
for TJX. And they expect Q3 27
comparable sales growth of 2 to 3%
fullear comparable sales growth of 3 to
four percent. So maybe a little soft on
that end. Um the stock was weak into
earnings and this is one that has
similarly to lows. Obviously very
different business but similarly uh
similarly to lows if I could talk this
stock has been bouncing pretty
predictably um at least on this time
frame on the 4 hour. So I'm going to be
watching TJX for a bounce honestly in
the mid 140s where it's at now. Maybe
for a play back towards uh 155 maybe
higher than that. So, I like the way
it's setting up. Even though earnings
brought it down a little bit, I don't
think they were that bad. Um, so TJX,
Lowe's, TGT, those are the three main
ones uh for this video, guys. Other
stocks moving. I mean, look, the the
crypto names again, Bitcoin's going
nuts. Uh, well, nuts 5%. I mean, not too
nuts, but it's up big biggest green day
I've seen in a while. Um, and we have
Coinbase up 10%. Although Coinbase is
nowhere near breaking out. This stock
has gotten um demolished. I mean, it's
sad. A 10% green day is like a blip on
this Coinbase chart. Now, that's how
ugly it's gotten. I mean, this thing
can't even really move. But eventually,
when Bitcoin's back, whenever the heck
that happens, uh, we'll see Coinbase
start to come back. Robin Hood, which
I'm long, uh, we're seeing a nice 5.6%
6% green day today. We're bouncing at a
higher low here. We're just we're just
trying to break out of the highs from
about a week ago. Right by the 180 SMA
here. Big resistance on Robin Hood. If
it breaks, uh this could start to push
over 100 again. I think that's no
problem for Robin Hood, especially if
Bitcoin cracks 70 75 goes back to 80.
Yeah, Robin Hood. Oh yeah, it's it's
going back over 100. So, I'm watching
Robin Hood again. I'm long. Marcato
Libres, another one I'm long in. Looking
good today, man. 7% up as of this video.
And this thing's starting to push. It's
starting to push this multimonth high
right now, which I think, and I've been
saying this for a while, and I think now
that the stock's digested earnings, it
might be about to happen. I think once
we take out 19, 1950, 20,000 on Marcato
Libre, this thing is going to go
haywire. I I really think that I think
it's been a long time coming. We're
going to be trading in this window right
here. If that happens, in my opinion,
when that happens, the fundamentals
here, man, are too strong for this to be
a sub 20000 stock for much longer. At
the end of the day, man, stocks follow
earnings, revenue, the fundamentals
longer term. Shortterm, yeah, the noise
gets in the way. People get shaken out
of stocks, but long term, they follow
earnings. And if you know about the
fundamentals about behind Marcato Libre,
they're crushing it, ma'am. They're
crushing it. And they they have seen a
short-term hit. The free cash flow,
their margins, uh they're making some
key investments right now. And that
spooked out investors, but not me. I'm
holding because in my opinion, we're
going well over 2K on uh Marcato Libre.
Well over 2K. And I've been buying it
all year, building my uh position down
here under 2,000. And I'm ready, man.
I'm a long-term investor. I'm a trader,
too, but I'm also an investor in
companies. And I'm I'm willing to hold
stocks, especially again, if the
fundamentals are good. Things are
shaping up nicely. The charts longer
term look good, which for Marcato Libre,
they do. Um, so I'm I'm excited, man. I
think it's about to break through
1950,000
and we could go a lot higher from there.
So, very good day for Marcato Libre.
Tesla's pushing, but this is not quite
out of the woods yet. Uh Tesla's back in
the mid300s. Who would have thought,
right? I'm not surprised. When it got
hit all the way to 293, I bought some at
like 306, 330. Um so I didn't nail the
bottom. Do we ever really nail the
bottom? You know, sometimes we do, but
who cares, right? I was buying there
because I knew we were going to snap
back. Is anybody surprised? No. Nobody's
surprised. But we're not fully out of
the woods yet for Tesla to really be out
of the woods. We need to break through
um 375 probably back over 400, which we
have a little bit, you know, a little
ways to go until we get back to that
point. Let's see what else is doing
well. Software is not doing bad today.
Uh we have CRM up 5%. This one's testing
multi-month highs as well at about 210.
This is actually a big test for CRM
heading into earnings on what day is
that? Uh the 26th. So, oh, next next
Wednesday. Same day as Nvidia and I
believe Crowd Strike. Crowd Strike might
be that day as well. Um so that's a big
day of earnings. So CRM's at a big
point. 210 is the breakout spot for
them. Adobe's up 4% also at a
multi-month resistance at about 275 280.
Keep your eyes on Adobe there, guys. Uh
let's see. service now 7% up. Oh, and
you guessed it, also at a multi-month
resistance. So, be careful. These stocks
are pushing, but we're not out of the
woods um quite yet. And some of them
have earnings coming up. So, I'm going
to wrap it up here, guys. Overall, look,
for me, what stocks am I looking to
really buy right now? Um at this point,
listen, I'm not buying a crazy amount of
stocks day in day out. when there's a
good trade opportunity that pops up, I'm
going for it. But I have a good amount
of cash. Not saying I'm waiting for a
crash at this point. Uh but I'm being
cautious with what I'm buying. Um you
know, I'm honestly being patient on
Google stock right now. This is one that
I really want to add more to. Uh but it
just keeps messing with 340 and I just
think we're going to take it out. I
think we're going to go to 320 and I'm
kind of keeping a good amount of buying
power for that. I do want to get a good
chunk more of Google. Um, and I'm
waiting for that. And other than that,
man, listen, there are stocks I'm
looking to add more to, but patience is
key. And trades when when you're
patient, when you're sitting on cash,
you're not forcing trades every day. Um,
it's funny how it works. Trades present
themselves to you and you're like, "Oh,
this setup looks good." And boom, you
have cash. You can take advantage. And
I'll keep you guys posted as always on
um or in the Patreon in the Discord and
the actual Patreon app. We post all the
trades, all the portfolio updates. I
answer all your questions, guys. You can
DM me. We have a private Discord. And
listen, a lot of people have been
joining and a lot of people have been
finding value. I hope you guys have been
finding value. So, let me know in the
comments what your thoughts are. Hit the
like button, subscribe, join the Patreon
link down below in the bio in the
comments. And with that being said,
cheers.