Stock Market Backtest Or Is It Something More Serious To The Downside?

Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, happy Tuesday everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access trader.com uh nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody is uh doing well. Guys, take a moment out, support the channel. Uh all it takes is a second, click that like button if you haven't done so already. come aboard, subscribe to the channel, and hopefully I will continue uh to do my best to point you in the right direction. So, uh pretty quiet session. You can see uh by all the indexes, you know, fractional, I don't even want to use the word losses, but fractional kind of quietness, uh for today. Uh briefly losing the 5day moving average today before bouncing back. I don't want to put any any real meat and potatoes behind the last two sessions that have been relatively quiet. We do have a couple of things. We'll talk about the pivots in a second. Um but most important is I the way I look at it, right? The way I look at it right now, the cues are digesting this last big move up, right? It's a it was a very very aggressive move up. Keep this in mind. uh we went from the July 29 lows of 661 to the August 5th highs of 728. It was a very very aggressive move. So the fact that we're going sideways to slightly low right now is actually a good thing, right? You need to uh digest this move because again keep this in mind the most important part is when you get that institutional money flow there needs to be uh meat and potatoes still left on the table. When you have a move that's linear, the people that are controlling the biggest bag, right, the biggest amount of money, they're not going to start paying prices on a 7 8 10 12 day move. So, it's very very important, very impressive actually that we are getting a little bit of sideways action for the last couple days. You're getting some decent opportunities. Uh nothing expansion, right? Again, that's the worst part of a a rest cycle, but overall, it's a good thing. Organic rest for the rest of the market. Uh this is the key metric, right? This is the key met metric but we talked about as long as we keep on building right and closing above the 50-day moving average you have to assume this is just nothing but a rest nothing but a pregnant pause and you don't need to be alerted over everything. Yes. Are you going to see some weakness and some names and you're going to turn around and say, "Wow, the market looks kind of heavy." Well, the market is only going to be heavy if the broad market is heavy, right? If one stock looks heavy, two stocks look heavy, that's fine. But the point is when you're looking at the index, right? When you're looking at the index, so let's use uh QQQ's as a barometer here. If you're looking at the index, we are still healthy. We are still digesting this latest move and everything is fine as long as we continue to close over 714. 1737 is the 50-day moving average. Again, I don't have to remind uh any viewer of this channel what happens if you lose the 50-day moving average and what happens uh if we can't reclaim it back on an orderly basis. It's very very important, but as of right now, very constructive. Now, if you look at individual stocks, YEAH, YOU KNOW, I GUESS I I hear what you're saying, right? I I hear what you're saying. You could be, you know, a little worrisome of what's going on. Let's start off with some really strong names uh that had big runs, right? you had this really majestic run on Amazon and now Amazon's just kind of like fading down, fading down, even closed today uh below the 5day support. I mean, okay, look, I I give you that, right? I give you that. It does look a little bit heavy, but at the same time, again, refer to what we just talked about a couple of minutes ago. It's only alarming if we lose the 50-day moving average as a totality. Having said that, you don't want to lose this weekly range. Uh if it does lose this weekly range, yeah, there's like five bucks potential for the 10day move. Again, is it going to turn the needle or raise eyebrows for investors? No. But we are a trading platform, right? We're traders. We're not investors. So, yeah. I mean, look, am I going to watch Amazon just in case this loses it 5day range tomorrow? Sure. Right. I'll watch it. Again, I trade both sides of the market, but it's something that we want to just keep in the mind in case the bulls start faltering a little bit more. Nvidia is the same thing, right? Nvidia had this really, really aggressive, you know, 6-day run. It got a little bit tired. It's defended now the 5day moving average a couple of times, like I said, to Amazon, like I made reference to everything else. Is it just a simple back test? Kind of relaxing, kind of taking a deep breath before the next leg up. Sure. Right. We want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. But just like Amazon, folks, the last thing you want to do is ri is lose this whole 5day range. So far, it's held. But if it loses this 5day range, again, it could be a nice trading move for us. Not investing. Again, investors, you're good until Amazon loses 206. If you're a trader, you want to watch the channel for the last 5 days. Look at a name like PLTR, right? And just to give you an idea of what potentially could happen, right? So PLTR has been on a godlike move. If you've been in the webinar, you've caught the bottom 200 day bounce, you caught the earnings high, you caught the continuation high. We've been kind of doing pretty well uh with these channels on PLTR, but PLTR is starting to a little bit look like Microsoft, a little bit look like Google. And the reason why I say that if you look at Google right if you look at Google had this really really big run and it lost the previous day's low and then started really coming aggressively in. If you look at Microsoft right had this really really big m today was the first day it lost the you know the previous day's low it actually gave like a $6 move into the fiveday. So I kind of want to watch and again I I don't think there's anything extraordinary. It's not like a Michael Barry I'm shorting this thing till it goes to a dollar. It's it's not dramatic. I'm just kind of making a point that there is a trading opportunity if it does lose the previous day's low. If it does lose the previous day's low and buyers just get tired on this channel and they lose a little bit of steam, there will be an opportunity for us uh for a potential backside move for maybe a day or two. Let me give you guys some ideas to the upside. Right. There's some semis that are looking really, really good. I've been talking about um I've been talking about TSM now for like 3 or 4 days. Guys, if you can show me a tighter base underneath the 50-day moving average, I'm all ears, man. This thing is just super tight. As long as this thing doesn't die and if this thing can reclaim back the 50-day moving average, I think it could give us a pretty good move. This thing looks This thing looks pretty good, man. This thing looks like it's ready to go. The problem is it hasn't been above the 50-day moving average and it's attempting to reclaim the 50-day moving average every single day for the last 5 days and been rejected. Look at Circle, right? It's a name that we haven't talked about in a long, long time. The last time it reclaimed the 50-day moving average, the stock went from 100 to 140. Put up a 40% move like in 7 days. Now, again, I'm not being dramatic about all that, but you can see here it tested the 50-day moving average today, got rejected. My question is, well, what happens if it reclaims it back tomorrow? Again, definitely a name uh that I want to watch for tomorrow. Uh as well, look at GameStop. Again, not sexy. Nothing that I'm dying to trade tomorrow, but guys, this thing has held a nasty gap down and held the bottom of the range here like four times. Let's watch it for ish and giggles, right? Just in case if this thing gives up. Uh it's been consolidating now for a week and a half. Let's see if it gives up that bottom range. I don't think you're going to it's going to go down in dollars, but a trade is a trade is a trade. So, uh you're you're kind of in this like situation that the market is going through this consolidation phase. you're getting some strong stocks, strong stocks consolidating or even coming into the levels like we talked about Nvidia uh and we like we talked about Amazon that are teetering on potential potential giving us a backside trade even PLTR that you know looks like a little bit that the sellers are getting a little excuse me the buyers getting a little bit tired on names like Taiwan Semiconductors that's I don't know if it's imminent but it looks imminent that it wants to bust through tomorrow you got the CPI right you got the CPI hopefully uh the number will embrace it one way or another. Again, I'm always um I am always prepared on the long side. I'm always prepared on the short side because again, that's the definition of a trader. You're not locked into an opinion. You're locked into a bias. You are uh falling in love with channels instead of falling in love with the stock. So, you got CPI tomorrow, a lot of inflation data. It feels like it's on a daily basis. Um you have uh a day three consolidation above the 50-day moving average on the cues. And the last one I want to talk about is Tesla. So yeah, let me let me show you guys. So here was the day today, right? Here was the day today. So Tesla has been one of the weirdest stocks uh for the last probably last year or so. Um you know, it's always going to give you a move when when channels are going to confirm it's always going to give you the move. The problem with Tesla in the last several days, right? uh in the last several days, in the last several months, in the last several years, when you have a channel that potentially could give you 10, it gives you three. And then at some point in that channel, if you don't take profits, well, the profits are going to be taken away from you. So, we had a pretty good pivot in this thing today, right? 332 and 3373 needs to confirm. So, they both confirmed. The problem is, um the stock went to 336. I had initial uh initial supply at 337. That was a 20-day supply. It didn't get there, right? Um the problem with this name is there's been a constant seller in this stock every dollar up literally for the last several days. The funny thing about it is if you look at the chart, it's actually been price improving every single day for the last six, seven days. So, it's been very, very weird. Look, I I I would love to see for Tesla to finally get back above the 20-day, right? If it can get back above the 20-day, is it potentially we finally get that expansion day for 10, 12, 15 points? Knock on wood, right? Knock on wood. But for now, you know, two, three points. Uh, again, it could be worse, right? It could be worse. You could be like not identifying those levels at all. But all of us in the webinar today, we we were joking about it. It was like it was like the worst two, three bucks uh you could possibly trade mentally because you're just sitting there and you're like, why is this guy just constantly selling? Always guys, always remember, take money on the way up. There's no such thing as guarantees. Uh and try to get that measured potential and get back down to a runner. But again, not bad. Not bad at all. It's just uh again a little bit disappointing. We couldn't get a a bigger stretch. Uh AMD, nice move down on AMD 469 short. I thought it was the earnings low. I was mistaken. Anyway, AMD came in anyway. Uh took out the 469 initially, traded all the way down to 463 before a nice little reversal. Again, the market's not a short. It's just you're trying to take advantage of channels. That's why kind of what we're talking about. We're referring to an Nvidia or PLTR or Amazon. We're not The stock's not a short. They're just trying to take advantage of channels. Uh let me see what else we have today. Uh DXM, nice looking chart here. DXM 8820 uh needs to build. This is actually a nice looking chart. It continues uh to hold up really, really well. It's closed at the highs of the day. Looks like it wants to test that uh 9091 area. Uh PLTR obviously did not get there, but we did see uh there'll be a higher pivot for tomorrow. Uh but we did see a buyer come in for the December 140 puts for 5.4 million. Is that enough to uh to set off kind of a back test multi-day pullback rest scenario? You know, we will see uh for tomorrow's uh session. So that's it. I mean, that's it. I I think we um I I think we need to kind of uh figure out tomorrow uh you know what the CPI says, how it's being determined uh after the close. You had good uh good reactions both on SMS SMCI uh having a really nice move uh after hours. I'll be tell I'll tell you one thing, man. For a stock that has a lot of fraud talk uh built into this thing, this thing has more good reports than not. I guess that's what happens with if you're a quote unquote fraud. Uh CRWV also a nice pop here after hours. Is this going to have a little bit of of a positive effect on the semiconductors? We'll see. Yeah, we'll see uh if that is the play tomorrow. But other than that, guys, again, you know, even on slower days, we're always finding uh some value. Uh again, you want to get $5 $10 candles. Everybody does. But again, there's certain days that the market contracts, it goes to sleep, and when the market gets passive, you get passive. when the market starts uh going through an aggression phase, then you step on the gas, step on the throat, and strike with extreme prejudice. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless and hopefully I will see you all on the field tomorrow. Take care.