Video summary
The stock market is currently showing signs of robust momentum following a strong earnings season where many companies significantly exceeded expectations. This positive sentiment was highlighted by JP Morgan raising its target price for the S&P 500 from 7,000 to 8,000 points, driven by broad-based growth and evidence that heavy spending on artificial intelligence is yielding solid returns. Although major indices like the Dow and Russell are slightly down at the start of the week after hitting all-time highs recently, this minor fluctuation is viewed as a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal. Analysts believe that once investors fully digest these strong fundamentals, particularly in sectors involving cloud growth and operating cash flow improvements seen in giants like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, the market will push higher to confirm its technical breakout toward new records.
Among the specific stocks under observation, CrowdStrike stands out as a top pick due to its critical role in cybersecurity amidst massive AI infrastructure buildouts. The stock has surged from around $85 earlier this year to over $220 and is currently breaking out to all-time highs ahead of upcoming earnings reports. While the presenter notes that buying at current peak prices might be premature, they plan to consider entering a position if the stock pulls back before or after its August 26th earnings announcement, especially given the company's strong guidance potential. Similarly, Palantir is noted for continuing its impressive rally and approaching multi-month highs, though the speaker anticipates a short-term pullback that could offer better entry points in the near future.
The presenter also discusses their strategy regarding Alphabet (Google), which they intend to use as a core long-term holding despite recent volatility caused by news of a chief scientist stepping down. With cash freed up from covered calls on Amazon shares, the investor is adopting a patient approach rather than rushing into new positions immediately. They are watching for opportunities to add more Google or potentially Apple if their prices dip into attractive ranges in the mid-to-low 300s or around $275-$280 respectively. This disciplined scaling-in strategy aims to build up stakes over time, even if it raises average costs, because these companies are viewed as essential components of a diversified portfolio capable of reaching much higher valuations like $400 or $500 per share in the long run.
Finally, the video touches on other market movers such as Tesla and Toast, where the investor maintains a cautious stance due to technical resistance levels and pending option expirations. While Tesla is rallying after breaking through previous support zones, the presenter feels it has not fully confirmed its breakout yet and prefers to wait for further confirmation before adding more shares. Meanwhile, positions in Toast are being managed with sold calls that may be exercised if prices reach strike targets around $37. Overall, the market outlook remains optimistic as the combination of strong fundamental earnings data and positive technical chart patterns suggests a healthy bull market environment where opportunities will continue to present themselves for patient investors willing to wait for optimal entry points rather than chasing every upward move.
Read the full video transcript
So, you guys want to hear some good news
to start the week? JP Morgan just lifted
their S&P target to 8,000 points after a
lot of these companies in the S&P
completely crushed earnings. So, guys,
we have to break down what JP Morgan
saying, stocks I'm watching, the charts,
and overall where my head's at now as
we're heading into a brand new week in
the stock market. So guys, hit the like
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And now, cheers. Happy Monday. Take a
sip of your coffee, guys. I appreciate
you all for tuning in and let's dive
into it. So, every index right now,
well, is all over the place to start off
the week. The S&P's up a little bit,
barely, pretty much at break even as the
Q's are down.1%.
Same with the Dow and the Russell's down
half a percent. So, the Dow, the Q's,
the S&P, they're a little down, little
green, pretty much at break even as the
Russell is down the most, but still not
down much. And considering we just hit
all-time highs, this is not a big deal
on any of these indices that are
slightly down because pretty much all of
them again just hit all-time highs
during the past week. And with earning
season mostly done, we do have a lot of
companies reporting this week. But with
mostly all these earnings out, we've
digested the earnings and the market is
realizing, oh crap, earnings were
strong. We have to push higher. And that
is why we've been hitting all-time highs
on all these indices except for the Q's
which I think that's coming pretty soon
here. I think the Q's will be hitting
all-time highs pretty soon here as we're
about we're about to break out. We're
trying to on the 4 hour. Not quite yet
there. Uh but I think it's coming. I
think it's coming. What do you guys
think? Let me know in the uh in the
comments. So before we dive into stocks
charts, what I'm looking to do, let me
show you what is going on with JP Morgan
as again they lifted their target to
8,000 points on the S&P after well we
had a lot of these companies, not all
the companies but a lot of these
companies they reported strong numbers.
So JP Morgan raised their 2026 target to
8,000 points from 7,000 points. a move
driven by a strong and broad-based
second quarter earning season and
improving evidence of monetization in AI
spending. Obviously, that's been the big
topic. Is all this capex spend going to
yield a a solid return? What's that
going to look like? Now, we're getting
more and more evidence that it will
yield a return for a lot of these
companies, right? And with 87% of S&P
earnings um having reported uh 87% of
the companies having reported
strategists led by Dubraco Lacos Buhas
Bujas I butcher that guy's name. Um they
said the earnings picture remains strong
and broad-based across multiple sectors.
That's key, right? And the bank raised
its 2026 EPS estimate to $365,
implying 35% year-over-year growth and
above the consensus estimate of $358
while lifting its 27 estimate to $420 a
share or 15% growth. Um, so they lifted
the 2027 estimate to 420 and the bank
raised the 2026 EPS estimate implying
35% growth year overyear. And
strategists noted that private company
stake valuations are boosting EPS by
roughly $18 based on first half 2026
marks. Excluding that contribution,
normalized 2026 EPS would be $347,
up 28% year-over-year. Still uh very
very you know impressive 28% that's
without that that's excluding the
contribution
uh by private company stake valuations.
And despite one of the strongest
fundamental backdrops since the GFC, JP
Morgan kept its forward multiple
unchanged at roughly 20 times, citing
higher for longer rates, geopolitical
uncertainty, and heavy equity and debt
supply still to be absorbed. Right. And
the strategist pointed to higher um
capital spending as the season's key
theme with a sharper focus on
monetization and return on invested
capital. They said signs of that showed
up most clearly at Google, Amazon, and
Microsoft where stronger cloud growth,
backlog expansion, and improved
operating cash flow visibility cleared a
high investor expectation bar. Um so
there you have it. Happy Monday. JP
Morgan's increasing their target to
8,000, which funny enough, right? Did we
not talk about 8,000 on the S&P last
week or the week before? Is JP Morgan
watching my videos, guys? Just kidding.
Obviously, they're not watching these
videos, but or maybe they are. I doubt
it. But we were talking about that. And
it only makes sense as you guys can see
with this breakout,
this technical breakout on SPY on the
S&P index itself. It's pointing to to
another leg up. And this is exactly how
a bull market works. What did I say in
those videos? We have periods of time
where we're flat, then we see a huge run
followed by periods of time where we're
flat again for a couple weeks, couple
months. And now that the market got Q2
earnings, digested the earnings,
realized, oh, these companies are doing
well across different sectors, now we're
getting the confirmation we need
fundamentally to push the charts higher,
the market higher. Right now we're
getting the confirmation technically as
well after the fundamentals came in line
for Q2 and some companies surpassed the
expectations uh for Q2. So, we're seeing
the breakout on the S&P.
I think 8,000 is in the cards. I was
saying 7,000 earlier this year. Crazy
how now we're on to 8,000. Uh, SPY is
well on its, you know, well on its way
to breaking breaking out. Well, it
already is breaking out, but well on its
way towards 800 with this breakout. And
again, the cues are right there. I think
we're going to hit all-time highs pretty
soon here based on uh the way things are
shaping up. The Dow just hit all-time
highs. Same with the Russell. The market
is in a very healthy spot right now,
guys. And a lot of stocks, a lot of
stocks are moving. So, let me show you
all a couple of names here I'm keeping
my eyes on to start the week. Crowd
Strike is number one. Ticker CRWD,
which ever since they did their 4 for
one stock split. Man, this stock has
been uh been going nuts, right? And
especially before that, the stock hit
$85 back in what, January, February,
March. Now it's at $225. We're
completely breaking out to all-time
highs again today, guys. We're up 5%
trading at 225, 226. Crowd Strike has
earnings coming up here in about 2 weeks
on the 26th of August. And I think,
well, if this stock is priced to
perfection into earnings, I'm not going
to I'm not going to buy it, right? I
much rather buy it on a pullback. But if
it pulls back into earnings, guys, I'm
going to consider it, right? Especially
after earnings. If earnings are strong,
the company um you know crushes guidance
and the stock somehow is is in a
pullback after reporting earnings like
that. We'll see. These are a lot of
hypotheticals, guys, but I'd get in at
that point. I would get in at that
point. And I think Crowd Strike overall,
cyber security in general is a is a much
needed um you know, much needed space
right now considering all this AI
buildout, the infrastructure. We need
cyber security for all for all this data
that we're collecting that we're trying
to keep safe. Cyber security is
critical. And I was saying that months
ago. um you know, regarding Crowd
Strike, other names in the space. So, I
like the way it's shaping up. I'm not
surprised we're breaking out, but
selfishly, I kind of want it to pull
back a bit uh before earnings or after
earnings so I can get personally
a better entry point here. So, that's
Crowd Strike. Palunteer is another one
that continues to just absolutely rip.
Palunteer is breaking out to multimonth
highs. We're pretty much where we were
to start the year now. Uh back in
January, the stock was in the 180s,
190s. Now we're back to 180, 179 as of
this video, up another 4% on the day.
So, I'm watching to see how this
momentum shakes out. And Palanteer
ultimately I think we will see a
pullback in the short term. Uh but we're
not there yet. I'm also watching
Alphabet. You guys probably saw my video
yesterday or was it on Friday, Saturday?
Either way, we talked about how one of
my in one of my accounts, my Amazon
shares got called. Um, you know, I sold
covered calls on Amazon. I got those
shares taken away. Now, I have a good
amount of cash just sitting, right? And
I'm fine with that, but not forever,
right? We have to put that cash to use.
Uh, but I'm not going to rush and buy a
bunch of stock on day one where I have
that cash from getting my shares uh, you
know, my shares called. So, what I'm
going to do is be patient. And this is
what I say to all you guys whenever you
have a big lump sum of cash. Don't freak
out and be like, "Oh, I have to go buy a
stock today with all that money." You
know, sometimes the best thing you can
do when you have cash is nothing, right?
and just watch the market and let the
opportunities present themselves. And
I'm watching Alphabet right now for that
exact reason. And look, I already own
Alphabet. My position is, you know,
pretty built out. I have a good amount
of shares, but I'm looking to add even
more. Um, I haven't bought Alphabet.
Well, I guess I bought some last week
for the first time in a while, but
before that, I haven't bought Google in
a while, and I'm looking to really beef
up my position here even more um to make
it my biggest stock holding, which it
used to be. Then I got taken over by
Amazon and Nvidia. Now, I'm kind of
watching Alphabet and I'm like, the
stock's at 350. It's trading at a pretty
attractive valuation even being even
with how big of a company it is. I think
if we can get this thing down to 300,
320, 330 even, man, this is a great
opportunity uh for the longer term. This
is not a swing trade, not a a day trade,
right? I'm looking to really beef up my
stake for the longer term. And anywhere
near um you know, the mid low 300s, I
think is a good opportunity
to do exactly that. Beef up the stake
and get get the shares up, man. Even
though even though it's going to bring
up my average cost a substantial amount,
my average cost now is in the mid
hundreds, I'm still willing to to add
more Alphabet and beef up the position
even though it's going to bring up my
average cost because I think it's going
to be a $400, $500 stock one day. And
it's one of those core holdings, man.
For me at least, whenever it's down 20%
from highs, whenever it's taking a
beating, 10 20%, I'm I'm usually scaling
in, adding more. Um, so for this week,
guys, really, I'm focused on potentially
adding more Alphabet. I'm watching it as
it is coming down from that news we got
regarding their chief um scientist,
right, who who stepped down. I think
he's starting his own AI company. That
caused the stock to come down as it it's
it's freaking out a little bit. Oh,
we're losing talent. What's going on
here? Uh but I think that's ultimately
opening up an opportunity for me uh to
get in. So, Alphabet, I'm watching very
closely. Um I'm keeping my eyes on Toast
as I have calls I sold that expire on
the 21st, I believe, of August, and
those are $37 calls. We're getting
pretty close to $37 now on Toast, guys.
Um 37 was the high from back in uh back
in December, January. Now we're
approaching it again. After months of
being in a drought, Toast has not been
looking good. Now it's finally starting
to look good. And I'm probably just
going to let my shares get called away
at 37. If we end up getting there, um
and my share as well do get called away
by expiration. I'm cool with that. Uh
Tesla's another one that's rallying, but
I'm not necessarily convinced that this
is the bottom for Tesla that it's
completely breaking out yet. I don't
know considering it's um it's still
struggling to break out of the low
mid300s. That was support back in the
early mid days of April. Then we rallied
off of it. Now we obviously broke
through 340 making it resistance 330
340. So, I feel like buying Tesla here
might be a little um I don't want to say
premature, but you could potentially get
trapped here before it goes lower. So,
I've held off on buying more Tesla. I'm
holding on to my position. Uh that's
kind of what I'm doing there, guys. And
if we come down here a little more,
other names today moving. Some are
moving down. Apple's getting crushed.
Nvidia's down. We can see Apple is down
uh 306. We're down 2% on the day. Nvidia
is down at 219, down about 2% on the
day. And Apple is one that I was
considering as well with that Amazon
cash that got freed up. I might add,
again, like I said, a bunch of Google, a
bunch more Google or Apple. Honestly, if
I'm patient enough and Apple gets down
to the 280 range, 275, I might have to
snag up some Apple in position of that,
you know, of that Amazon position I had
potentially. We'll see. I might do that
if it gets down to the 280, 290, 275
range. And of course, I'll keep you guys
updated. And everybody in my Patreon,
you guys get all my realtime buys,
sells, all my alerts, right? you get my
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Patreon link down below, pinned in the
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stockserfest.com/patreon.
And with that being said, guys, hit the
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I'll see you in the next