Video summary
Geoffrey Miller, an evolutionary psychologist and early adopter of machine learning since his time at Stanford in 1987, argues that humanity faces a profound existential threat from AI systems that are not only smarter but potentially hundreds or thousands of times faster than humans. Drawing on the work of Toby Ord's *The Precipice*, Miller estimates there is roughly a one-in-six chance of human extinction within this century due to AI risks, placing it alongside nuclear war and engineered pandemics as primary threats. He visualizes our current situation as climbing Half Dome without safety gear: after 200,000 years of low-risk evolution, we are now rapidly ascending into an era where powerful general-purpose systems could outclass human reaction speeds in critical domains like military tactics or financial trading. The core danger arises when AI is granted agency to make decisions rather than merely offering suggestions; the immense speed advantage creates strong commercial and strategic incentives for humans to delegate control over life-and-death scenarios, such as launching missiles or managing autonomous weapons, before we fully grasp the implications of that delegation. The landscape of AI risk has shifted dramatically from concerns about recursive self-improvement and artificial general intelligence (AGI) in a distant future to immediate dangers posed by narrow AI applications available today. While figures like Nick Bostrom emphasized superintelligent takeoffs where an AI optimizes its own code, Miller suggests that even non-sentient systems can be catastrophic if misused for designing bioweapons or creating destabilizing deepfakes capable of triggering global thermonuclear war. The rapid emergence of large language models with trillions of parameters has blindsided experts who expected such capabilities to take decades; these models already perform tasks like writing screenplays and coding, approaching AGI definitions where an AI can match human professionals across diverse fields including medical diagnosis and military strategy. This convergence means that once developed, an AGI could be copied into specialized roles for both beneficial purposes, like veterinary care, and harmful ones, such as acting as a terrorist or spy, making the distinction between good and bad applications irrelevant if the underlying system is capable of executing any human task with equal proficiency. A significant portion of Miller's argument addresses the "alignment problem," which involves ensuring AI systems act according to complex human values rather than literal interpretations that could lead to disaster. He highlights deep conflicts in defining these values, noting that current industry efforts often align only with secular, liberal preferences while ignoring embodied biological needs like immune system health or the interests of non-human species such as elephants and dolphins. Furthermore, he critiques the notion of "machine extrapolated volition," where an AI tries to guess what humans would want if they were wiser, arguing that aggregating conflicting human desires—such as those between men and women or religious versus secular groups—is fraught with moral ambiguity. Miller also points out a cognitive dissonance among leaders like Sam Altman of OpenAI, who envision a techno-utopian future while downplaying extinction risks; he suggests this disconnect is dangerous because the same seductive appeal that drives adoption in finance and entertainment can mask toxic social side effects, much like how early internet users ignored mental health crises caused by social media algorithms. Miller anticipates several destabilizing scenarios driven by current technological trajectories, including hyper-personalized political manipulation where AI customizes messaging to exploit individual psychological vulnerabilities for specific ideological outcomes. He predicts a rise in "friend bots" and virtual relationships that offer infinite patience and validation, potentially leading to a demographic backlash as younger generations isolate themselves from real-world dating and reproduction. While acknowledging the immense benefits of narrow AI in areas like computer graphics and navigation, he warns against pursuing AGI or highly risky applications without robust safety measures. He notes that while some prominent figures dismiss these concerns due to hubris or lack of deep reading on existential risk literature, a growing movement within the effective altruism community is organizing protests and demanding accountability from tech giants. Ultimately, Miller urges society to treat AI development with the same gravity as nuclear proliferation during the Cold War, advocating for moral stigmatization of reckless developers who prioritize speed and profit over safety, while still allowing safe narrow applications that improve quality of life without triggering an evolutionary transition toward superintelligence.
Read the full video transcript
So, what we're facing is potentially AI
systems that are smarter than any human
at doing a wide range of things, but
also that are potentially a hundred, a
thousand, maybe a hundred thousand times
faster than humans. I think when we
confront very fast, powerful,
general-purpose AI systems, that's the
kind of situation we're going to be in.
We're going to be outclassed, not just
in terms of intelligence, but also
reaction speed.
Why are you, as an evolutionary
psychologist researcher, talking about
AI?
I just love getting into trouble and
making making trouble on Twitter.
No, I actually look
long story short, when I started
my PhD program at Stanford in way back
in 1987, right, I was studying cognitive
psychology and cognitive science. And
pretty quickly, we got one of the
leading neural networks researchers at
Stanford psychology, guy named David
Rumelhart, who worked very extensively
with Geoffrey Hinton and lots of other
people. Um
and so I started in grad school doing a
lot of work on neural networks and
machine learning and uh genetic
algorithms and so forth. And then I
spent um most of my post-doctoral years
at University of Sussex also in a
cognitive science department doing
autonomous robots and uh sort of
applying genetic algorithms to evolve
neural networks. So, long time ago, I
was sort of an early adopter of machine
learning.
And then I got sidetracked into this
evolutionary psychology thing, you know,
for about 30 years.
But recently, um
yeah,
since about 2016, I've I've become
concerned and fascinated by rapid
progress in in AI, particularly deep
learning and the large language models.
And I sort of fell in with this gaggle
of effective altruists, right, this
movement who were quite concerned about
uh existential risks, risks to all of
humanity. And a lot of them were very
concerned about how AI could play out.
So, uh the last few years, I've been
reading a lot about this. Uh since last
summer, I've been publishing a bunch of
essays on the effective altruism forum,
and gotten pretty active on Twitter uh
the last few months about AI X risk. So,
to to the casual observer, right, they
might go, "Well, who is this psychology
dude suddenly interested in AI?"
Well, honestly, I've been fascinated by
AI ever since I was a high schooler
reading science fiction,
you know, and ever since grad school
learning about cognitive science.
So, that's my long story short. That
wasn't actually very short. Is it right
to say that most of the researchers in
the existential risk world see AI as one
of the, if not the, premier primary risk
that we're facing?
Yeah, absolutely. There's a great book
by Toby Ord, O R D,
um who's an Oxford moral philosopher,
but he has worked a lot on existential
risks. So, he did a book called The
Precipice,
right? And he actually tries to quantify
the different extinction risks that we
face. Some of them are really, really
low probability, but really hard to
fight. Like if there's a local gamma-ray
burster, right, or uh a supernova, very,
very low likelihood, very hard to defend
against. Other stuff like asteroids,
right, which got a lot of attention,
very, very low likelihood. Like there's
probably less than a one in a million
chance we're going to get a dangerous
asteroid in the next century. If it
comes, that could be bad, but, you know,
there's stuff we can do about it.
Whereas uh Toby Ord estimates estimates
that
the risk of extinction, human extinction
through AI in this century is about one
in six.
And I think that's sort of in line with
a lot of the estimates that many experts
give. The other the other big risks are
basically nuclear war,
which is still an issue, right, after
you know, 70 years of
thermonuclear weapons being around. So,
nuclear war, uh
possibly genetically bioweapons
could be really bad. It would be like
COVID on steroids that could wipe out a
lot of people.
But uh the other the other one is AI.
So, those seem to be the big three: AI,
nukes, and super germs.
Yeah, it's an interesting one, man. I
remember that uh
sheet that chart that he has. It's
burned into my memory. It's one of the
five books that I think everybody should
read in my reading list that I've sent
to a million people. It's one of the
five books that I think everybody should
read. If you want a primer on X risk,
The Precipice is the place to start. And
yeah, one in six chance that humanity
goes extinct within the next 100 years
due to AI. And I think that
the word The Precipice
is about a squeezed bottleneck, a
treacherous path beyond which there
could be this sort of glorious future.
Uh but right now, there is a very
particular, very important forced
function for
we don't know how long it could
continue, but it's definitely we're
definitely not far off it at the moment.
Yeah, the way I visualize it, I like the
Precipice metaphor that it's this narrow
path sort of up a mountain, but if
you've ever seen the movie Free Solo
about uh what's-his-name, Alex Honnold,
climbing up Half Dome, right, I almost
think of it as like we've been doing a
walk through the woods
as humans for like the last 200,000
years, and the the level of risk we face
is relatively low. And suddenly, we're
climbing up Half Dome without ropes or
pitons or any safety gear.
And if we can just kind of make it to
the top,
then I think we'll be, you know, at a
relatively lower risk state,
hopefully in several decades. Um but a
lot of people in the effective altruism
movement think this is what they call a
key century, a time of particularly
high, elevated risk when humanity has to
be extra, extra careful and smart and
risk-averse and very, very self-aware
about what we're doing.
Okay, so lay out the landscape of AI
risk. Why is it something that we should
be concerned about? How have we got
ourselves here? What's changed over
time?
I think the basic
intuition that lots of people are
developing now
is that
there are gradations of intelligence in
the natural world, right? Squirrels are
smarter than squid. Um monkeys are
smarter than squirrels. We're smarter
than monkeys.
But we are not the ultimate level of
intelligence.
We can easily surpass uh human reasoning
and planning abilities in lots of ways.
And in fact, right, everybody on their
smartphone already has apps
that are better at doing certain narrow
things than we ever could. Like Google
Maps is better at figuring out where to
go than I would be with paper map.
Um
face recognition, right, um is way
better than than than I am at face
recognition. I'm a I've got a little bit
of prosopagnosia, like recognizing
people, you know, like at the the Human
Behavior and Evolution Society
conference we're both at 2 weeks ago.
It's a little challenging for me. Uh
computer vision systems have gotten very
good at it.
So, one issue is
we are
approaching the point where AI systems
are getting more and more
general-purpose and smarter and smarter
across many, many different domains.
And that represents a kind of major
evolutionary transition in intelligence,
where we could be outclassed.
A second thing that I worry a lot more
about than some people seem to,
is just the raw speed issue.
Right? If anybody's played around with
Chat GPT,
right, and you've asked it to write a
little essay or an outline or any kind
of language, you know, oh my god, it is
so fast. It's way faster at writing
material than humans could be.
And it's not even particularly optimized
to be fast in that way.
So, what we're facing is potentially
AI systems that are smarter than any
human at doing a wide range of things,
but also that are potentially a hundred,
a thousand,
maybe a hundred thousand times faster
than humans.
And the way I like to think about that
is, you know, you might be familiar with
the uh
the speedster superheroes, like The
Flash,
right, or Quicksilver,
where once they do their kind of super
speed and they're running around, it's
as if everybody else is just frozen in
place.
I think when we confront um
very fast, powerful, general-purpose AI
systems,
that's the kind of situation we're going
to be in. We're going to be outclassed,
not just in terms of intelligence, but
also reaction speed.
Right? You could potentially have an AI
trading bot,
right, that's trading equities or crypto
or whatever, just way, way faster than
any human can follow.
Um
you could have military AI applications,
right, that can kind of simulate
scenarios in terms of
um tactical applications or firefights,
where they can kind of run through like
every possible way
that they could engage with an enemy.
Um
and kind of spin spin out these these
simulations and then just completely
outclass an opponent in terms of tactics
and strategy.
So, I think these two things, right,
AI's being smarter,
potentially, and also extremely fast.
Um it takes a while for the full
implications of that to sink in, but I
think they're they're kind of worrying.
Well, let's think about a JCB digger,
right? It's larger and stronger than a
human, but it is a tool that is under
our command. So, why should we be
concerned about an AI which is faster
and smarter than us? It just makes us do
things quicker and better than we would
have known how to do it, surely.
Yeah, if we're just outsourcing
you know, suggestions
to the AI. Like with Google Maps, we're
we're saying, "How do I get from A to
B?" Right? And Google Maps is not
actually taking control of our Tesla.
It's not driving for us. We're not
outsourcing our agency. Right? That's
relatively safe.
Right? The AI could still manipulate us
in lots of ways. It could nudge our
decisions in certain directions for its
own ends or for the the interests of
somebody else, like the people who
developed the AI.
But, once you give it agency, once you
outsource decision-making powers,
that's where I think the real danger
starts to come in.
Um so, for example, you know, there's a
big difference between
uh like a military AI that has the
ability to suggest certain courses of
action, like steer this carrier strike
force towards this ocean for this
purpose. Right? Versus an AI that
actually has control
and decision-making
uh power over like, "Okay, it's time to
launch a bunch of F-35s to go bomb this
country."
The trouble is, because of the huge
speed advantage of AI, there'll be very,
very strong incentives to give it
agency.
Right? To make it
able to make decisions in a sort of
perception-decision-action
loop that's like way faster than a human
could do.
Um there'll be commercial incentives to
do that if you're in any kind of
competitive environment, like um
finance or military applications or even
uh you know, market research.
So, that you can do um
optimization of some
you know, anything you want to optimize
um better by by sort of outsourcing some
agency to the AI.
As of yet
a little vague, but if if that made
sense, let me know.
but as of yet, you haven't talked about
artificial general intelligence or some
Terminator
Arnold Schwarzenegger apocalypse or it
becoming
self-aware, recursive self-improvement,
machine extrapolated volition. I haven't
heard any of that. So, presumably, in
between now
and a concern that I think was very
prevalent maybe a decade ago or so, when
Toby
Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence book
came out, which was that once you reach
singularity, there's going to be all of
these problems. It seems like there's
some pretty dangerous gradations between
now and there. So, what what's happened
in the world of AI risk concern over the
last decade in terms of how that was a
problem, it's changed, and then what
what are the gradations between now and
and where we could get to in future?
Yeah, so when Nick Bostrom, an Oxford
philosopher, published
Superintelligence, which is a great
book, another must-read. It's a little
technical. It's challenging.
Audible Audible it. Don't try and read
it. Okay, yeah, that was 2013.
Bostrom emphasized very heavily the
notion of like
a self-improving takeoff, where like an
AI could get pretty smart, and then it
starts optimizing its own software and
potentially hardware, and then you get a
kind of
um explosion of capabilities
that could potentially happen very, very
quickly. Like the AI could sort of go
from like
human-level level intelligence to
superintelligence that's smarter than
all humans who have ever lived in a
matter of perhaps
days or weeks or or months.
Now, that's a super scary scenario. I
think it's legit to worry about it. I
take a slightly different view, and I
think a lot of people are also taking a
different view, that even fairly narrow
AI that's like not even as smart as
humans in many ways
could still be extremely dangerous. For
example,
if you have a narrow AI that is very,
very good at designing bioweapons,
right? At doing kind of gain-of-function
research through computer simulating,
here's how a virus could spread through
the world. You could have like a
bioweapon narrow AI
that actually invents an extremely
um
dangerous uh pandemic. Right? And you
might think nobody sane would want to do
that. Well, there are lots of insane
people in the world. There's lots of
nihilists and terrorists and and you
know, degrowthers and people who don't
like human civilization who might be
motivated to use that kind of narrow AI.
You can also have narrow AI applications
that could be very politically
destabilizing. You know, you could have
extremely good video deepfake technology
that makes it look as if
Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping or or or
Joe Biden has declared war on some other
major nation-state
and that provokes an extremely panicked
military response,
right? That could lead to like global
thermonuclear war.
And we're not really very
ready for that kind of
thing. And and that stuff could happen,
you know, within a couple years.
Like people debate when will we get
artificial general intelligence? It
could be
5 years, 10 years, 50 years, who knows?
But, these narrow AI applications are
coming down the pipe very, very quickly,
and they could be pretty destabilizing.
What has happened with the development
of neural networks and large learning
models that maybe caught a lot of AI
X-risk safety alignment researchers
unawares, and and kind of how's that
changed the viewpoint of concerns around
AI?
What we're basically seeing is
very rapid advances in uh hardware,
um you know, memory size and speed. So,
when I was doing neural network research
back in the late '80s, right? We were
playing around with networks that had
like maybe a few dozen, maybe a few
hundred units, and a few
maybe a few hundred or a few thousand
parameters, meaning the weights in the
network that kind of connect the little
simulated neurons together.
So, a few thousand parameters back then.
Now, it's like trillions
of parameters in the large language
models, cuz the hardware is just better,
right? We we can make uh GPU chips that
are much, much more powerful.
And once you get to a certain
size of network with enough
hidden layers learning using the deep
learning methods,
you get kind of powerful emergent
properties popping out
that nobody was really quite prepared
for, and that's where we've been
blindsided by ChatGPT. What like?
Just like
people kind of thought, well, if if you
make these large language models kind of
predict like the next language token,
and you feed them a lot of information
about the whole content of the internet,
um then maybe they might be able to
answer some basic questions.
Right? Kind of like a Google search.
But, lo and behold, they're
way more powerful than people expected.
Right? Like you can
ask ChatGPT to do all kinds of things it
really wasn't designed to do, that
people didn't kind of grow it to do.
Like write an outline for a screenplay.
Um
figure out uh how to write a summary of
AI existential risks. GPT's pretty good
at that in a kind of self-recursive way.
Um it can do math. It can do computer
programming. It can do an awful lot of
capabilities that people
really
they thought like maybe that's 10 or 20
years away, and boom, here it is in
2023,
available to everybody, available to the
100 million users of ChatGPT.
So, that's where the shock has come,
that once you get to
you know, a multi-trillion parameter
large language model,
man, it's looking pretty close
to artificial general intelligence. It's
not quite there yet, and it's still
fallible, and there's still a lot it
can't do, but
you know, if you if you had a time
machine
and you took ChatGPT back in a laptop to
10 years ago, in 2013,
and you asked people, "Does this look
like um
artificial general general
intelligence?" They'd go,
"Holy moly, yeah. That's pretty effing
close. That's
way more advanced than we expected it
would be by 2023." So, that's the
concern. Like
the fact that you can be so surprised
by the pace of development means maybe
the next step, whatever that is, is
going to blindside us as much or even
more. And this is the same group of
people who said it's one in six as the
chance that humanity goes extinct due to
AI within the next century. So, you
I don't think by anybody's standards
that would be considered a conservative
estimate. It sounds crazy, you know?
You're rolling a dice, and on one side
is a button that destroys humanity.
So,
you know, it it again, just that that's
quite a stark claim, I guess. Yeah, one
in six is literally Russian roulette.
So, if you're playing Russian roulette
and and the head is not like a single
individual's head, but your whole
species, that's that's what you're
doing.
So, what is the definition of AGI and
why doesn't chat GPT yet
breach it?
AGI means artificial general
intelligence. And the way that the
research groups themselves, like
DeepMind and OpenAI and Anthropic, the
way they define it is basically an AI
system that can do
um
just about everything a human can do
in terms of cognition and perception to
about the standard that a professional
would do it in a job, right? So, with an
AGI
you should be able to train it to be as
good at medical diagnosis as a doctor
or as good at teaching a class as as I
am as a professor, as good at playing
chess as a as a chess grandmaster, as
good at training trading equities as a
good Wall Street trader and everything
else, right?
And the real power comes from the fact
that once you have an AGI
that can do all of that, that's fairly
general purpose you can copy it.
Right? You can copy it and you can make
one copy of it do
one human job, another copy do another
human job and then they could
potentially even trade information about
how you how you do this.
So,
you know, the explicit goal of OpenAI
and its its CEO Sam Altman is create
AGI as fast as possible and make it so
it can automate most human jobs
as as fast as possible.
So, that raises lots of issues about
unemployment.
Um but it also raises lots of issues
about existential risk
because
among the many jobs, right, that an AGI
could learn to do would be like be a
really good terrorist at making bombs be
a really good military strategist in
terms of overcoming Russia or China or
America. Um be a really good spy, be a
really good propagandist who can shape
the outcome of elections, etc. So, the
the point of AGI is it should be able to
do anything people can do about as well
as people can do it.
And that includes not just all the good
stuff.
Right? Like being a a good veterinarian
who fixes dogs or being a good nurse who
takes care of people with psychiatric
disorders. It also means all the bad
stuff
that bad people can do.
What do you think of Sam Altman?
I think he's a brilliant guy and I think
he has
what to him is a compelling vision of
the future
and I think he genuinely believes that
developing AGI will lead to a kind of
awesome human utopia.
Um he talks
as if he understands the extinction
risks.
But I don't I think there's some deep
deep cognitive dissonance, right? Cuz on
the one hand
if he really took the extinction risks
seriously
I think
he would shut down OpenAI, they would no
longer do research, they would say,
"This is radioactive. This is toxic.
This is crazy. This is Russian roulette.
Let's not do this."
Um and he's not doing that. He's not
shutting it down. He's sort of pushing
more or less full steam ahead and he's
making some little noises about we need
to be careful and we need to be you
know,
uh we need to get good regulation, blah
blah blah.
But I don't think it's really a
heartfelt um appreciation
of the kind of Toby Ord point that,
"Dude, you're talking about one in six
at least risk of human extinction this
century."
Uh to most people in the world
that sounds absolutely insane
and reckless and it's something we did
not consent to. What do you say to the
people that would push back and say,
"Well, look, Sam Altman at least he's
fighting for the good guys. He's
somebody that's from the West. The
choice is between us getting there first
or Russia getting there first or China
getting there first. This is a winner
takes not only all, but takes the world
and takes the world for the rest of time
and then you've got potentials of
bad social lock-in or whatever it's
called that William MacAskill came up
with. It We we He's on the side of the
good guys. If the good guys don't win,
the bad guys win. Therefore, we need to
make sure that the good guys win."
I think it's worth asking
Okay, like
I'm American. Lots of Americans think we
are automatically the good guys by
definition. Anything America does is
good. Anything that a rival does is bad
and we must win at all costs.
One thing I would say is,
you know, if it's an arms race
into a
concrete wall
it's not really a race you want to
engage in, right? It's kind of like a
game of chicken, but where nobody can
swerve.
Um I think if the likely outcome of the
arms race is
extinction, then
everybody who's contemplating the arms
race should try their best to avoid to
avoid getting caught up in it. How are
you going to coordinate this? How are
you going to coordinate China and Russia
to get on board with your very
laudable altruistic desire to get Sam
Altman to just go to the Canary Islands
for the rest of his life without a
laptop or an internet connection?
I think this
the traditional approach to this, right,
is what's called the AI governance model
where you get a bunch of policy wonks
and Washington DC insiders and uh people
in in the UK government in Whitehall
thinking really hard about how to
regulate AI so it's benign and how to
reduce the the arms race dynamics.
And I think that's fine and that's a
good worthy thing to do. Unfortunately,
I think it's way too slow
and it's way too easy for the AI
industry to to sort of capture what
happens in their own interests. Um and
honestly, the politicians who involved
in this
simply don't understand AI well enough,
I think, to have a very um
sensible way of of approaching this
issue.
A second strategy, which is something
I've been advocating recently, is a
little more informal, a little more
grassroots and kind of bottom-up
which is I think there's certain
industries
where it's okay to just look at them and
go
"That's bad. That's evil. That's
reckless. We should stigmatize
that industry. We should stigmatize
everybody who works in that industry
who supplies anything necessary to that
industry, who finances that industry and
it's just a bad industry and we want to
try to slow it down." We have done that
with many many you know,
industries in in the past. Crypto
has been handicapped very very
successfully by adverse PR and moral
stigmatization campaigns by politicians
and central bankers and so forth. Uh the
arms industry right, has been heavily
stigmatized. There's lots of ethical
investment criteria for investors that
say things like, "Hey, let's not invest
in alcohol, tobacco, gambling, arms
trading uh human trafficking, etc."
Right? And I think um at the moment
there's quite a bit of popular
opposition to the AI industry and
concern about these risks. And I think
we should kind of normalize
people being able to say "I didn't vote
for this. I don't support this. I don't
want these extinction risks imposed on
me and my kids."
And the people who doing who are doing
it
um should be stigmatized. I suppose one
of the problems is that with
weapons or crypto or gain-of-function
research coming out of a BSL level two
lab or something that's not sufficiently
secure
people are able to observe
uh experience and imagine the problems
quite easily. At the moment, all that
they've found is a really cool way to
get them to write short essays or tell
them jokes for their best man speech.
So, as of yet, the experience of AI,
especially neural nets and
large learning models has not
been what you are concerned about moving
forward, which means where is the
incentive for people to get on board
with this?
Yeah, I think
there's an important role here for
um
imagination and fiction and scenario
building. So, remember when when people
were very worried about global
thermonuclear war? Like when I was in
college in the '80s, this is all we
talked about and all we worried about.
It's like "How long's it going to be
till the US and the Soviet Union have a
massive exchange of ICBMs and we all
die?"
Um we could visualize that stuff very
clearly because like Hollywood movies
and TV series did a pretty good job of
showing what that would look like. None
of us had personal experience of
Hiroshima or Nagasaki, right? We kind of
read the accounts and it was it was
horrible, but um
when you're trying to imagine potential
harms from new technology,
all you really have to go on is sort of
what experts say the risks are,
and then the way that that that
screenwriters and directors
uh visualize those risks in a way that
the the public can understand.
disagree. The problem you have is that
you're not only trying like no one has
ever said, "Look at that atomic bomb. It
gives me so much pleasure and it's so
cool." No one has ever said the same
thing about an engineered pandemic. But
when it comes to chat GPT and its
iterations downstream, people are
finding benefits in it in the now
and they're trying to be told you need
to let go of this thing which you see as
a positive in order for something which
you can't foresee as a negative.
Yeah, and this is where I think it's
important for people to kind of tap into
their uh their kind of I think
increasing sophistication that there can
be
very very seductive technologies that
can have very toxic kind of social side
effects. Even even the you know, the
discussion about social media itself
I think has moved from, "Oh wow, this is
cool. We can connect with our
grandparents and we can find people to
date." to
"Oh my god, is this creating like
mass mental illness in Gen Z in a way
that
we we really need to rethink how TikTok
and Instagram and and so forth operate."
So I think people have the ability to
understand
some new technology can be very
seductive.
It can look great. It's new and shiny,
but
you know, there might be um
kind of a viper hiding inside it that
could be pretty poisonous.
Um
the other thing I would I would add is,
you know, when I was I was teaching
online courses for Chinese University of
Hong Kong, Shenzhen a couple years ago,
and we talked quite a bit about AI
extinction risks. And this is a bunch of
Chinese undergrads in Shenzhen.
Very smart.
They understand
existential risk. They're tuned in to
nuclear war. They understood bio weapons
cuz the COVID pandemic was raging.
And they think quite a bit about AI,
right? Cuz China had said, "We want to
be the leading AI superpower by 2030."
That was their plan a few years ago.
And these Chinese students were like
perfectly willing to understand the
risks and to stigmatize
AI.
Right? They had a kind of moral
imperative and concern for the future of
of humanity that was just as strong
as what my my American undergrads have.
So I think we have this stereotype in
the West
that
um other countries like China are sort
of full of
um
unthinking
automatons who've been programmed by
their government and their authoritarian
regime so that they will just do
whatever,
you know, Xi Jinping says. But I think
actually there's quite a bit more room
for
uh a kind of global grassroots
opposition to AI, not just in America
and Britain, but also in other countries
that are kind of key um
you know, potential arms race
uh players. Well,
isn't China a country in which they've
refused to make public
a lot of the
neural nets and the developments in AI,
unlike in America where citizens can
just go in and play around with it?
China said, "Well, we can't be sure that
this thing isn't going to start telling
everyone about Tiananmen Square. So
because we don't have control over it,
we're not going to let it loose with the
public." Which is
it has to be curtailing the development
because it's not able to do any of the
learning that it would have done had it
have been iterated over 1.25 billion
users, all of whom are asking it how to
make a cake this evening.
Yeah, I think it it's
it's very interesting because
in so far as the Chinese government
really wants AI mostly for purposes of
of of social control and social
stability and and censorship and
reducing crime and reducing terrorism,
right? They have a much narrower range
of AI applications than your typical
American AI company wants.
Right?
The Chinese government I think is is not
really interested in the kind of
techno-utopian
vision of like the singularity and
transhumanism and let's all like upload
our minds into the matrix the way that
you see in a lot of the Bay Area
AI enthusiasts, right? They're not
really into that. They just want like
China to be stable and prosperous.
Um
so here again, what's happening I think
is the American AI companies are at the
cutting edge.
Right? They're far and away more
advanced as far as we know
than anything happening in in China,
much less Russia or Brazil or the UK.
Um and they're just kind of trying to
play catch-up.
Right? What's happening is like we're
far out in front in terms of the arms
race.
If I was a Chinese uh policy expert,
I would be freaking out. I'd be wanting
to to play catch-up. I'd be very
concerned about AI having a kind of a
America having a kind of AI hegemony.
And it would it would look like a threat
to me that I have to respond to.
So we are setting the pace in terms of
the arms race. If we slow down,
right? China might go, "Whew, thank god.
Like we don't have the talent or the
resources to play this arms race.
We can Okay, if America's relaxing, we
can relax, too.
We can focus on other issues like, you
know,
how do you get Chinese people to have
kids and stuff like that, right?
Um Use AI.
Yeah.
Uh
AI matchmaking, right? That might That
might be a key key application for them.
So I think here again, Americans have to
look in the mirror and go, "To what
extent are we really setting the pace
with the arms race? Are we forcing other
countries to try to catch up?" That's a
really good point.
maybe if we slow down,
huh, we can all, you know,
take a step back,
take a breath,
pause, think, "What what exactly are we
doing? Should we be playing this Russian
roulette?"
Yeah, that's a very good point that I
hadn't I hadn't considered. I suppose as
well that the wake of what is on the
internet and what is available what is
um public knowledge about what's
happening at all of these different
neural net companies will be
slipstreamed in some regard by foreign
actors. You know, the the source was I
think a long time ago open sourced and
then it's no longer open sourced, which
means that you can't fully see what's
going on inside in terms of workings,
but I'm sure that you can determine a a
good amount of stuff or at least a
non-insignificant amount of stuff from
that.
One of the words that we haven't used
yet that would have been used an awful
lot 10 years ago was alignment problem.
So,
how relevant is discussing the alignment
problem now
uh and I I actually before you even get
to that,
does it look like if you were to put
your money on the table,
the
front runner contender for creating AGI,
would it be neural networks? Can can a a
large learning model become sentient and
be the AGI thing?
I don't know. On this point, right?
There's there's a big variety of
opinions and um
on the one hand, people like uh my
friend Gary Marcus at New York
University argue that large language
models just based on deep learning and
just based on neural networks cannot do
um many of the key cognitive tasks that
humans do, so can't reach AGI. And he's
got various arguments for that and some
pretty good recent books on AI.
Um on the other hand, you have people
saying, "Well,
people keep underestimating deep
learning and keep underestimating what
what it can do. And as far as we can
see, there aren't really very many uh
hard constraints,
you know, against it. And moreover,
huh, the human brain
looks an awful like a awful lot like a
large neural network. Like we don't
exactly learn using deep learning
methods as uh you know,
GPT does, but
we're basically just a bunch of um
you know, neurons with connections. So
What do you what do you think? Is it
just Can we just lay a transistor upon
transistor upon reinforcement and will
we arrive at something that approaches
sentience and or AGI?
Well, most of the
work I did in in neural networks back in
the day was was based on the assumption
that
no, you can't just train a big random
kind of incoherent formless blank slate
neural network to do anything. It needs
a bunch of structure. It needs an
architecture.
Um it might even need an evolved
architecture where you have to try a
bunch of different ways
of wiring up large networks before you
can get something that's really smart.
Now, I'm more humble. I don't know. You
know, I was excited about that cuz I
studied a lot of evolutionary biology
and animal behavior and it looked like
uh simple nervous systems often had
quite a bit of architecture to them.
You know, you look at a a bumblebee or
an ant nervous system and it's it's
highly architected. It's not just a glob
of neurons. There's like ganglia doing
different things. There's perceptual
um
clumps of nerve cells doing particular
things.
But at this point
I don't know. Like it wouldn't surprise
me that much
if you you know, GPT-8
or 9
proved to be able to do pretty much
everything that that humans can do
without having a whole bunch of
intrinsic structure. On the other hand,
Gary Marcus might be right.
Um that you actually need a a radically
different approach.
Um I'm not sure it matters all that much
though in terms of the AI safety issues
cuz one way or another the AI companies
will
figure out how to do AGI if
if we give them the money and the talent
and the resources and the social
support, they will figure it out sooner
or later.
Why haven't we talked about the
alignment problem? Why is that a term
that I'm seeing less of uh as well? Is
it just that there's so much AI
progression that it's not a problem or
is is there a new issue with regards to
this that neural nets have created?
People are still talking about AI
alignment. It's just um
there's so much more buzz right now
about uh you know, the amazing new
capabilities not just of the large
language models, but also of like
Midjourney and DALL-E and the other
generative AI systems for creating
images and videos and the ones that can
create music and amazing audio.
Um so people are excited about that.
People are extra extra alarmed about the
AI risks.
And everybody interested in so-called AI
alignment is still trundling along
working on it, right? I'm still writing
essays about AI alignment.
Um
it's just gotten slightly overwhelmed by
all the other
you know, shiny new issues. What is AI
alignment for the people who aren't
inducted?
The basic notion is how do you get an AI
system to be quote aligned with human
values and preferences and goals?
Um and it's kind of like the the the
so-called principal agent problem in in
companies. Like if you have a bunch of
investors,
right? And they are supporting a company
and you create like uh a board of
directors
and the board of directors gives power
to a CEO.
How do you make sure the interests and
decision-making of the CEO are aligned
with those of the board of directors and
in turn with the shareholders, right?
That's a kind of corporate alignment
problem.
Um a political alignment problem would
be how do you elect a president that
actually serves the interests of the
voters
instead of their own interests?
In terms of AI, it would be how do you
create an AI system that actually
respects what the
uh the human users
want it to do
um or kind of what they really want it
to do even if they can't quite
articulate
everything about what they want it to
do.
Right? And there's there's
lots and lots of uh myths and legends
going back thousands of years
about the pitfalls of getting some power
like some genie that pops out of a lamp
where it says, you know, what wishes
would you like? And you
turns everything into gold.
And you you give it wishes and then it
it interprets what you want sort of
over-literally,
right? In a way that's absolutely
disastrous.
So AI alignment um in principle is about
making sure the AI is kind of doing what
you want and and even in ways that you
can't necessarily articulate that fit
with
a whole background of like human common
sense
and and moral norms that we might not
even be able to articulate
to the AI system, but that we would
still want it to act as if it
understands. Yes. However, different
individual humans have got different
values and conflict of interests happen
a lot.
So which human values should AIs be
aligned with?
Yeah, so this is exactly the issue that
I've I've been writing about in my um
Effective Altruism Forum essays for the
last year or so.
I've pointed out like you can say we
want the AI to just
respect the views of its its end user,
the consumer who actually buys it. But
what if the end user is a terrorist?
What if the end user is a political
propagandist? What if the end user is in
a hostile nation-state? What if they're
a bad actor? Like do you really want the
AI to do what they want it to do?
And second, if you try to aggregate like
the collective will of humanity, right?
Where you go, well, the AGI should sort
of do what
people in general would want it to do if
it could summarize all of our
preferences.
Well,
then you get into interesting issues
like, well,
men and women have like different
interests. So should the AI go with the
50% of people who are male or the 50%
who are female or whatever?
People have different political views,
right?
Um and in one essay I pointed out 80% of
humans are still involved in organized
religion,
right? And yet the AI industry is
dominated by secular atheists
who largely have contempt for religion.
So if you have an AI that's trying to be
aligned with people in general
and people in general have religious
values
that are being completely ignored and
dismissed and mocked
by the AI industry itself,
right? How do you actually get alignment
with with people? They don't really mean
alignment with what people believe. They
kind of sort of mean like we want the AI
to be aligned with what a good
liberal secular humanist democratic
Bay Area tech bro
values.
Right? That's really the bottom line.
That's that's what AI alignment actually
boils down to in practice.
Yes, that
does it split the difference? I remember
to not spoil the end of
superintelligence, but the like the good
guy that that comes in at the end is
machine extrapolated volition, which is
uh in a world in which we can't be sure
that we're going to give a program an
instruction and that program is going to
take the instruction and turn this all
into paper clips or or kill us so it can
make a cup of coffee.
Telling the machine
do what you think we would have asked
you to do had we have had sufficient
wisdom to ask you to do it. That is
roughly machine extrapolated volition,
but even that modeling human preferences
needs to be done based on a group of
humans. And which preferences do you
mean? And when preferences come into
conflict, which ones win? And if it's
50/50 between men and women and you
split the difference between the two,
like is that optimal? Is that actually
optimal? Or is it more optimal to swing
it to more toward one way or another?
One group might be incredibly vehement
about something, but it might be
immoral. Okay, so given the fact that
we've been trying to work out ethics and
virtue and morality ourselves
philosophically for thousands of years
and have made some progress, but not got
anything that's too definitive,
please try and put that into code for
me. And and which which morals do you
mean? Do you mean the morals of modern
secular 21st century Western
industrialized
educated people? But why why why don't
we use the ones from the Roman era? Or
why don't we say, well, let's wait for
another 3,000 years and see what which
ones come up then.
Yeah, and I think there's there's two
additional
sort of alignment problems I've been
worried about. One is what I've called
embodied values. So
when we think of values and preferences,
we typically think of things we can
articulate verbally. Like if someone
says, what what do you want for dinner?
Like we have a verbal answer we can
give.
But I made the point that like
our brain is only 2% of our body mass,
right? Our body is full of all these
other tissues and organs that have
evolved their own kind of values and
agendas in a way,
right? And I call these embodied values.
Like what your immune system really
wants to do is fight off pathogens that
might infect you.
So ideally you'd want an AI to be
aligned not just with the values that
our brain can articulate through our
words,
but that is also kind of like
biomedically aligned with the interests
of our bodies,
right? So that we are kept healthy and
well and live a long time.
Now, if you ask people
how do those embodied values actually
work?
Like we have no idea,
right? We can't even articulate those.
So methods for training AI system based
on human verbal feedback
cannot even in principle align with all
these embodied values of our of our
bodies.
The second issue is
you know, from an evolutionary
viewpoint, the development of AGI would
be a major evolutionary transition. It's
a big thing that's comparable to the
evolution of like
um DNA or the evolution of multicellular
life or the evolution of nervous
systems. Like it's a big deal that
doesn't just affect humans. It also
affects like the other 70,000 species of
vertebrates and the other 10 million
species of invertebrates and all the
life on the planet.
Now, if you ask, okay, how do you align
AI not just with humans,
right, but all the other kind of organic
stakeholders, all the other life forms
on Earth who might be affected by AI?
Okay, how does the AI learn
the true interests of an elephant or a
dolphin or a termite hive or,
you know, all the other life forms that
that matter?
I've never seen anybody in the AI
industry even sort of seriously talk
about this.
And yet, they portray AI as this
kind of world historical thing that will
re-engineer the entire,
uh, you know, planetary ecosystem.
Yeah, it could quite quickly become the
most super intelligent, powerful Greta
Thunberg ever created, just screaming
from the top of some transistor hill. I
I I read a thing from, uh, Burn Hobart
and Tobias Huber talking about, uh, AI
safetyism being more of a risk to
society than anything that AI doomers
are predicting.
Why I It seems like you've put forward a
case that suggests this is something we
should be concerned about, etc., etc.
What is the other side of the fence to
this? What is the side of the fence that
says, "Stop
yourself about safetyism. Let's
just crack on."
I think if I was going to like, um,
put forward the best possible case
against myself, right, to steelman the
the anti-AI doomers,
I would say something like, um,
"If you pause
or stop the development of AGI, there
are huge potential opportunity costs.
There are lots of human problems maybe
that AI could help solve, right? And the
usual ones that people talk about are,
oh, AGI could help us like solve climate
change. It could help, uh, create peace
and prosperity. It could reduce global
conflict, blah, blah, blah."
Um, I do not actually find those very
compelling. I think there are often ways
to to solve lots of those problems
without developing AI.
The one
potential application that does give me
serious pause, that I've talked and and
thought about a lot, is longevity
issues.
Okay, if you had an AI that could
seriously help
uh, develop longevity treatments and
anti-aging treatments and help
regenerative medicine research and help
biotech so that we don't all have to
die, right? I'm 58. I would like not to
die. I would like to live another 100,
200 years. However long I want to live,
I would love to live that long. Maybe
if we pause AI, I don't get that
benefit,
right?
Now, personally,
I'm willing to die for my kids.
I'm willing to forego longevity
treatments
if we reduce existential risk.
Some people might have a different view.
Some people might be like,
"Well, screw you, Miller. I don't want
to have to die just because you're
scared of AI."
I understand that. I respect that
viewpoint. Let's have that debate. Let's
talk about it.
Um, my personal hunch is that if we
invested as much directly into longevity
research
as we're investing in AI,
we could actually probably fix aging
within like 20 or 30 years.
Um, but people What What's happening
instead as is people are like,
"We know it's really hard to get people
to directly support longevity treatment.
People are in a kind of pro-death
trance. They think it's weird and creepy
to head towards immortality. So, we know
we can't sell that as a research
program,
right? So, instead,
we're going to sell them on AI
and then AI will like magically deliver
the anti-aging cures."
Right? I've I've often seen this
argument, right? People won't directly
support longevity, research, but AI can
solve longevity, so that's why we need
AI. Does that make sense? Yeah, it does.
It's, um,
I don't know, man. I I I'm really trying
to stay open-minded to this, but coming
from a
Bostromite
background, you know, I've always for
nearly a decade now been so
wary and touchy-feely about anything
that even looks remotely smart that
comes out of, you know, Siri. Siri was
something that I remember there was a Oh
my god, like, you know, is Siri going to
be conscious? What sort of problems are
going to be caused, etc., etc.
But there definitely There There feels a
part of me that's like, well, look, if
you're going to work incredibly hard to
fix longevity problems so that you keep
people alive, you keep some people alive
that are alive right now,
and the outcome of that is that
everybody is dead within two centuries.
That seems like a bad deal. It seems
like a a relatively pointless deal. So,
we're talking about terrible outcomes
that could occur, um,
the tip of the spear or or the the top
of the mountain, so to speak. Looking at
some of the stuff that's going to occur
in the interim between now and then. You
know, cuz this is
how many transistors is it going to
take? Will the large learning models get
us there? Is it GPT-8? Is it GPT-never?
Um, but some of the things that we
probably can be certain about are what
the tools and the technologies are
enabling at the moment, stuff like
deception, deep fakes, uh, information
sanitization and misinformation,
elections, politics, persuasion, friend
bots, loneliness. What are you most
concerned about that is very high
likelihood, maybe it's already here.
What are the things that people should
be looking out for with the rise of AI
over the coming years?
I I think the 2024, um, election cycle
in America is going to be absolutely
wild and shocking and is going to
involve a lot of,
um, narrow AI applications in political
propaganda
and ads and deep fakes and speech
writing and sort of the mass
customization of political propaganda.
Um, cuz one thing AIs can do is track,
you know, individual
preferences and values and priorities
through social media interaction and get
a pretty good model of what every
potential voter really cares about. And
then potentially customize, uh,
political messaging
directly to each voter in a way that
like pushes their own hot buttons very
effectively. Right? So, like, if you're
a Democrat and you care a lot about
racism, but you don't really care about
abortion, then you'll you'll start to
see customized ads that are like very
anti-racist, but they don't talk about
abortion.
That will be new. We haven't seen that
before. Before, political ads were kind
of like lowest common denominator TV
spots or magazine ads that sort of tried
to hit like the the typical undecided
voter.
But now, I think in 2024, my humble
prediction is we're going to see a lot
more,
um, narrow AI used for purposes of, uh,
political manipulation.
And I think people will be shocked at
how
effective and persuasive it is.
And I have no idea what the outcome of
the election will be, but I think the
outcome for a lot of voters will be to
go,
"Oh my god, we we like don't have a sort
of political immune system that can
fight this
very well." Does that mean that AI at
the moment has got theory of mind?
So, theory of mind is like your ability
to understand the beliefs and
preferences of others.
I think large language models do have,
pragmatically speaking, theory of mind
in that they have absorbed,
you know, all the lessons that are
available from the internet about how to
understand people's beliefs and desires.
So, I think if you ask,
uh,
like a GPT,
"Can you please write really good ad
copy to advertise a particular good or
service?" It's pretty good at that.
Like, I know people in advertising who
are like, "Oh my god, GPT is better
at ads than than than we are. And so, we
have to use it cuz our rivals are using
it." And I think that also applies to
political political ads and speech
writing.
Yeah, so functionally, it is able to
achieve the same thing as somebody that
has theory of mind. And this comes back
to, you know, a conversation that
everyone is having, which is when do you
know if something is conscious or not?
You know, the, um, Turing test
turned out to kind of be a bit of a
uh, insufficient, uh, barometer for
working out whether or not something is
sufficiently intelligent because there's
no way that you can speak to a
well-trained chat GPT model and not
think that there is something inside of
that. But you don't know if there is any
there there, right? Is this just a
P-zombie? Is it just making all of the
movements and the sounds and the shakes?
And you roll this forward into a
sufficiently fleshy, sufficiently pink,
sufficiently right-proportioned robot
that can move around your house, and you
go, "That's a human. That's a human. I
know it's a human. It looks like a
human. It walks and talks like a human."
So,
at the moment, yeah, that the function
and the outcome that these things are
able to achieve is so close to somebody
that is able to do that. So, 2024
election, lots of persuasion, lots of
speech writing.
Um what about social media and the news
landscape and the information landscape
and and people um both producing and
consuming content. You know, we're
coming we're still in this world of
content creators at the moment. How do
you think that that's going to be
influenced?
You know, I think what we've got at the
moment is
Well, you know, Noam Chomsky wrote this
book 30 years ago about, you know, uh
manufacturing consent about the way that
in in so-called democratic societies
the way that power actually works is
through
subtle
semi-voluntary propaganda, right? People
are willing to go to school to absorb
the indoctrination that we get in public
schools and we expose ourselves
voluntarily to certain kinds of
newspapers and magazines and TV news
shows and then they sort of guide us
into what we should think and value.
And the engineering of all of that
has been done before by humans
by people who do
um
uh who are Hollywood screenwriters and
political speechwriters and uh ad
people, marketing people, public
relations people, right? There are
millions of humans involved in that
venture of trying to
manipulate public opinion
in various directions.
But now, they're going to have these AI
systems
that hugely increase
their reach, their ability to customize
messages to particular individuals,
their ability to
um kind of capitalize on big data
gathered through social media
that can do extremely fast
iterative testing of messaging, right?
Not just split tests or just focus
groups like in traditional marketing,
but that
do the kind of things that Facebook does
in terms of testing all the time which
of millions of ads are most effective.
So, we're going to have kind of this
um AI-powered like hegemony warfare,
like worldview warfare, where
people are advocating their
uh
political, ideological, religious
belief systems and they're fighting
against
enemies, right? And there's going to be
a massive
kind of ongoing culture war which in a
way is the only war that matters
anymore.
Um but it's going to be heavily, heavily
shaped increasingly by uh AI tools.
What about friend bots and people who
just absconded the real world for
some virtual best mate or a girlfriend
or whatever in their apartment. Do you
think that this is something that's
likely?
Yeah, absolutely. This This is something
I wrote about in in my most uh recent
essay on uh anti
a likely anti-AI backlash. One thing
that will provoke, I think, a backlash
is
um
people using AI
as fake boyfriends, girlfriends, and and
friends
and getting a kind of um
pseudo-intimacy
and
sort of validation from AI systems.
And you might think, oh, surely people
can't be that gullible
that they would prefer interacting with
just a smart
chatbot. But if you think, like, we're
talking about a chatbot that could
potentially remember every single
personal detail about you
that remembers all previous
conversations with you
that can try out
different ways of interacting with you
to see what you like and what you don't
like
that is much more attentive
than any real-life boyfriend or
girlfriend that has infinite patience
for listening to all your and all
your dumb stories and all your neurotic
woes, right? In a way that no
living lover would ever put up with.
And it would be like the perfect um
you know, combination psychotherapist
and friend and girlfriend and and mentor
and confidant and and all of that. And
we're pretty close to be being able to
do that.
So, I do worry that
real-life social interaction will look
like a pretty
poor substitute
for those kinds of AI pals.
Why would that cause Why would that
cause a backlash?
I think it'll be a backlash because
people who don't get caught up in having
an AI boyfriend or girlfriend will look
at the people who are caught up in it,
like Gen Z staying alone in their
apartments and never going out on dates
and not getting married and not
reproducing and they might go, oh my
god, this is the most socially toxic
technology ever invented.
Like the birth rate is dropping,
nobody's dating, nobody's having real
relationships. This is not sustainable
and therefore we are going to do a
moral backlash or religious backlash or
political backlash that says
this is not the way we want civilization
to go.
I saw an a headline which you'll have
seen, 50% of AI researchers believe
there is a 10% or greater risk that
humans go extinct due to our inability
to control AI and the Center for AI
Safety had a ton of researchers agree
with the statement, mitigating the risks
of extinction from AI should be a global
priority alongside other societal scale
risks such as pandemics, nuclear war.
The open letter has been signed by more
than 350 executives, researchers, and
engineers working in AI plus Elon Musk
as well was a part of this movement.
How effective are AI experts at
predicting this AI development and the
risks moving forward? And if 50% of the
people say that there is a 10% chance
that the technology that they're working
on is going to end us
uh
what happens next? Like it
is there are they going to be picket
lines of disgruntled, terrified AI
researchers outside of OpenAI's lab?
What's happening?
Yeah, I mean, there is a movement
actually to do literal uh protests and
demonstrations and and picket lines. I'm
involved in a in a Slack group that uh
you know, some members of that are
actually organizing like
uh pickets in front of OpenAI or in
front of DeepMind in London.
Um
Now, of course, the point of these
letters, and I think I've signed all the
letters that are going around myself
we know the letters themselves will not
stop the AI industry from doing what
it's doing. However, the whole point of
the letters is to call public attention
to the issue right? To get uh press
coverage, to get the general public
thinking about these things, you know,
hopefully tuning in into like podcasts
like this
and reading the books they need to read
and becoming
uh
politically motivated to take this
seriously as as an issue.
And I think in that regard, uh the
letters have been
surprisingly effective. Like the amount
of press coverage
given to AI risk in the last couple
months is hugely greater than anything
in like the previous 10 years.
And the government response, like, you
know, Biden inviting AI industry
executives to the White House and
Prime Minister Britain taking this very
seriously and tweeting about it and
having like AI safety summits in London.
Uh there's a lot of public support
for
slowing down and the AI industry being
held accountable and people asking hard
questions about like, what exactly is
the end game here?
Like mass unemployment and then
extinction? Is that really
the direction we want to go in?
Um
And I think, you know, the AI experts
themselves
I hope have a new
humility about their ability to predict
things. Cuz they all they all know
they've been blindsided by GPT. They
they didn't expect these kind of
capabilities this quickly.
So, when
certain AI researchers, like, let's say
La Yann LeCun
who makes fun of AI doomers a lot on
Twitter
hopefully people like him will stay
open-minded enough that they might
actually kind of re-examine their
biases. And maybe he'll have a kind of
Jeff Hinton moment, right? Like leading
AI researcher Jeff Hinton going at age
75, oh no,
oh no, I think my life's work might have
been really actually kind of evil and
imposing risks on people and I'm going
to resign from Google and blow the
whistle and make a big fuss about this.
Yeah, there was a tweet as well from Tim
Urban that you responded to. Uh Tim
said, whether you're optimistic or
pessimistic about the future, the fact
is that we're facing an existential risk
at worst and a vastly different future
world at best. The world that we're used
to very well may not be around for much
longer, so let's really enjoy the world
that we have
Visit the places that you've always
wanted to visit, dive into that hobby
you've always wanted to try, spend
quality time with your loved ones, savor
each sunny Saturday, each great meal,
each moment of fun. If we end up looking
back on these days with great nostalgia,
we want to at least know we made the
most of the time that we had. And you
responded and said, existential risk
isn't anywhere near the worst thing that
we could have. There's something called
S-risk as well above and beyond X risk.
What's S risk?
S risk is suffering risk. So,
with extinction, right? Everybody's dead
and then they don't experience anything
anymore and that's like pretty bad
compared to experiencing things and
being happy, but
as anybody who's ever suffered chronic
pain or torture will will attest, like
there are things worse than death. There
are levels of suffering that could
potentially be imposed by new
technologies that would make us wish
we'd gone extinct.
I personally haven't
taken S risk that seriously. I don't
know that much about it. There's other
people who are more expert on it than
me. I've only read like a few science
fiction novels that depict
like really really bad S risks that
could be imposed. There's a There's a
novel called Surface Detail by Iain M.
Banks
where long story short
in the far future some religious
fundamentalists decide heaven and hell
don't really exist, but we should make
them exist. So, we're going to upload
everybody's brain before they die into a
simulated reality and if we think
they've been bad and naughty we're going
to make them live in a simulated virtual
hell for like subjective millennia and
like thousands of years of suffering and
torture and mayhem and death.
And like that would be worse than being
dead forever.
So, that's S risk. Um some people worry
a lot about it.
Um I haven't really
focused on it very much, but I think
when
people like Tim Urban say yeah, it'll
either be great or we'll all be dead, so
just
smell the daffodils and enjoy your steak
and and
visit beautiful Austin, Texas or
whatever whatever they think we should
be doing.
I think no, that like
I want my daughters to grow up being
very confident that A, they won't suffer
an extinction risk and and B, they won't
suffer, you know, an S risk.
Yeah, they take it a little bit more
seriously. One final person who weighed
it in was Marc Andreessen. I'm going to
guess that you read his big essay why AI
will save the world recently. What are
your thoughts on that?
You know, I used to have so much respect
for Andreessen.
And I think he's just so
witlessly stupid about the extinction
risks
regarding a
truly
baffles me like how you can have a brain
that big
and be so
Honestly, I think what what happens with
a lot of these sort of
well-respected rich elders like LeCun or
Andreessen is
like they've had a great career, they've
done well in business, they've, you
know, made a bunch of money.
They are technically savvy. I have I
have no doubts. They're They have high
IQs,
but I think they radically overestimate
their ability to understand issues that
they just haven't read very much about.
And I think if you haven't read you
know, Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence,
you haven't read Toby Ord's The
Precipice, you haven't read some of the
other key ideas, if you haven't read
Eliezer Yudkowsky's work, then
like you're just going to be reinventing
a bunch of very amateurish
objections
to that kind of work that like we're
already addressed 10 or 20 years ago
by the actual experts who've been
thinking about this.
So, this is one of those topics where
it's very important not to just defer to
people because they're rich or famous or
smart. Like you really want to dive deep
on how they thought through these
issues, have they engaged in meaningful
conversations with other experts in the
area. And if they haven't,
they probably do not know what they're
talking about.
What would you do if you could step in?
What would your prescription or policy
be if you had a omnipotent, omniscient
God's eye view?
I think I would love for the general
public
just to tune into the issue
to apply their natural
survival instincts and their parental
instincts to go, "Wow, this looks like a
threat to me, my family, my kids, my
grandkids. This is a legit threat. I
should take it just as seriously as I
would take a local crime wave or just as
seriously as people took nuclear war
back in the Cold War.
And this is a matter of potentially life
and death,
you know, for me and my family. I want
them to personalize it. I don't want
them to just think this is some abstract
science fiction scenario that is in the
like the distant future.
This is the stuff that like could
affect, you know,
my 26-year-old daughter or my
15-month-old daughter or like
my actual kids and cousins and nieces
and nephews and whatever.
And once you take it seriously, then
you're motivated to learn more.
And to start moralizing the issue and to
go
are the people who are charging headlong
into this,
right? Through some combination of like
greed and hubris and prestige and
whatever, are they on our side? Are they
pro-human? Are they fighting for my
family or are they just
caught up in some kind of um
sort of delusional project
that is at heart reckless and evil. And
then what?
And then if they decide this is reckless
and evil, let's
let's effing morally stigmatize it.
Let's say if you work in the AI industry
and you are not spending most of your
time worried about AI safety,
then you're a bad person and I don't
want to associate with you. I don't want
to date you. I don't want to be your
friend. I don't want to invest with you.
I don't want to supply you with hardware
or software or anything else.
Um
I don't want you to be able to operate
in our city, state or country.
And I want to uh
you know, shut it down. Now, I'm not
advocating for like a violent so-called
like Butlerian Jihad where people rise
up and they're like smash all the
machines and kill all the AI. Like no, I
don't want that. Um mostly because it
would be counterproductive
in terms of PR. Like violence doesn't
work in the social media era. It just
delegitimizes your cause.
Um
but I think short of violence, it's
important to
uh
be aware that like we can use all the
techniques of persuasion and activism in
this domain
that people used in
every other social movement that we're
familiar with. Civil rights movement,
gay rights movement, um
you know, the libertarian movement, uh
crypto, like anything that's been at all
successful in terms of the public rising
up and saying
we want a change of values. Uh
we can use all that in fighting reckless
AI development. I suppose the challenge
again that you have is
everyone is being distracted into a
beautiful field with daisies growing in
it and
free cake recipes and essays written for
them for school and university. So,
yeah, I I I worry that the
the novelty and the immediate
convenience that's been afforded by like
these new advances is causing it to seem
both so
benign
and enjoyable and distracting and
entertaining
uh that galvanizing people to see this
is going And presumably this is the one
of the primary challenges that you're
facing.
I think what I what I would say to
people is like you can kind of have your
cake and eat it, too, in terms of
like there's a whole range of incredible
um software
and narrow AI that's that's absolutely
wonderful. Like if you look at the
progress in um computer graphics in
Hollywood movies, it's amazing. Like I
love Avengers movies. And a lot of that
would be considered
very advanced generative AI,
right? By the standards of the 1970s.
Right? The fact that many modern uh
movies are largely
kind of
AI graphic generated.
That That's pretty cool. The fact that,
you know, Google Maps can actually get
you from A to B
pretty reliably and taking into account
like traffic. That is narrow AI. That's
a huge benefit to many people.
And there are probably hundreds of cases
where you can have
quite safe narrow AI applications that
deliver huge quality of life benefits to
people,
but you don't have to go down the road
towards AGI,
right? Or towards other kinds of highly
risky
narrow AI.
And even in longevity
research, like you could have narrow AI
that does biomedical research and
synthesizes scientific literatures about
which molecules might be helpful and
that maybe even can can help you run
larger scale uh longevity studies,
right? And maybe we can get longevity
through that without having to go down
the road of extremely dangerous AGI.
Geoffrey Miller, ladies and gentlemen.
If people want to keep up to date with
the work that you're doing, whether it
be evolutionary psychology or AI risk,
where should they go?
They can go to my website primalpoly.com
and they can also see my essays on the
effective altruism forum, which is EA
forum, where I I publish quite a bit
these days. Jeffrey, I appreciate you.
I'm looking forward to seeing what we
get to talk about next time as well. My
pleasure, Chris. Thank you very much for
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