September 9th The Tiger Technicians Hour on TFNN - 2026
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
On September 9th, host Basel Chapman analyzed a volatile market where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 400 points to 52,381, interpreting this sharp decline not as a standard peak-to-peak correction but as a "lightning bolt" pattern that could signal an imminent reversal. With the Federal Reserve's funding room announcements pending and buyback activity potentially weakening the dollar, Chapman suggested that such conditions might be bullish for gold. He identified July 31st, marked by a low of 51,551, as a critical support level derived from an arch formation on the weekly chart, while projecting that Peak B likely occurred around September at 54,744 with a rally toward early November anticipated following the election. Despite maintaining long-term positions established during the lows of March 2020 and October 2022, he warned that failure to hold current ranges could lead to further downside moves toward the 50,000 level.
The analysis extended to specific sectors and individual stocks, noting that the market is undergoing a "trification" or "quadification" rotation where innovation-focused funds like ARK Innovation retain long-term upside potential, contrasting sharply with traditional auto companies such as Tesla which are heavily dependent on battery technology. Semiconductor stocks presented mixed signals; Marvell showed warning signs of a double top failure after months of consolidation, whereas Advanced Micro Devices remained positive despite recent declines. Meanwhile, data center stocks and the renewable energy sector were described as being in a rough digestive phase with breakouts expected in the third or fourth quarter, while crude oil broke out of a large rectangle pattern approaching its previous high near 52.94. Other key assets included Toll Brothers, which failed to make new highs and needed recovery time, Apple facing critical support between 305 and 307 with a potential "dreaded H pattern" forming on the weekly chart, Robinhood consolidating after a massive decline from its October 2025 high requiring it to stay above 110, and Bitcoin remaining in a consolidation phase within a diamond pattern.
Chapman emphasized that despite the apparent weakness in the Dow, the weekly chart remains resilient, buoyed by administrative actions preventing a total market collapse. He advised investors to exercise caution due to these rotation signals and recommended raising cash positions to prepare for upcoming opportunities, particularly focusing on gold's performance which had already risen 23% but needed to reach the $40 level, specifically targeting the $44.62–$45.20 range, to confirm its strength. The segment concluded with a wish for viewers to have a good rest of their day and directed them to check their daily call for further updates, underscoring that while short-term volatility exists, the broader market structure continues to hold firm against significant downturns.
Read the full video transcript
The following is a presentation of TFN
the Tiger Technician Hour with your host
Azel Chapman. Call now toll-free at 1877
9276648.
Now, Basel Chapman
Basel Chapman, this is the Diggs Hour.
Wednesday, the 9th of September. We're
looking at the Dow down 400 at 52,000
33,000
52,381.
So, we're looking at this. You know, I
like to go step by step, but definitely
this visually looks like you could very
easily go, this is not peak A to B or
anything. This is letter A going from
this is your A to B equals C to D. This
is the lightning bolt pattern that so
many technicians here at TFN and over
the decades have spoken about. I I use
it in a a little different way, but
basically what you'd be looking at is a
move from there down to the 51,500
level. I prefer just to say, look, you
could put that in there, but let's go
step by step. And the step by step says
that you've gone, the day is young.
We're not even an hour into the session.
So things can turn, you know, how
quickly things turn around. 11:00 comes
the funding room where Tommy was taking
to the den about the funding that come
the uh it's funding in the sense that
the the bonds. So let me just write tell
you what he wrote. He said, uh,
Treasury announces size of buybacks
today. Likely,
uh,
at 11:00 a.m. If previous history
repeats, depending on number, it could
be a big mover for gold, the dollar, and
longer yields. So, the bigger the
buybacks, the weaker the dollar will be
and bullish for gold. So, we're going to
be watching this very closely.
Meanwhile, most important is look at
that weekly chart. I drew the cup in.
Now what I have to do is I have to say,
you know what, this is changing because
now we were looking at the arch
formation and the arch formation always
suggests
that
you've got to look at left side lows as
support levels. So let's go to this. And
what is the low? The low is, excuse me,
July the 31st uh of this year. the low
is 51,551.
Well, lo and behold, that's where this
go this one to one implies let's go one
step at a time because what if the Fed
comes out with whatever it is for the
funding, right?
If there's a reversal
and instead of being down 400 points, we
all of a sudden down 180 points at 130.
Well, that could be a nice reversal to
the upside even if it's a counter trend
bounce. But what does that do? That
takes the time that I would use as a
left side, right side price time match
right here from there to that trough
right there.
And then I go to the right and it says,
"Wow, this is next week.
Look at that.
Oh, I forgot all about that." Usually I
get reminded um there's that expression
that what's the sell sell on Passover
sell on pass sell on um Rashana buy on Y
kipper that's this coming weekend
and then buy back about a week or so
later I don't know sometimes that works
sometimes it's like all the it's all
those technical indicators right um this
can go a little bit to the right so it
goes another three bars to the right so
that says where's this is on the 17th of
July. So it goes to about the 21st,
22nd. So there could be a one to one.
All right. I like to do this and I like
to draw it in. I like to say, you know
what, we don't know. You can just do
your technical homework. And the reason
why we're short is because the Dow's
just been looking terrible. All right,
we still have our long long-term
positions. Look at this. all the way
back from October of 2022
at the low and from March of 2020. Still
got those long-term Dow and uh UFW if
you can believe it. Three times long,
but it's it works. It's kind of fun. Um
okay, now let's do this.
So that's the Dow peak B likely in
September. We I can't say for sure, but
likely 54,744
at this point doesn't look like it's
going to be taken out in the next week
or so. So, we we'll go midmon and then
we'll talk about it. But it is a peak B,
a leg B in the monthly chart. Peak C,
which says there should still be a rally
at some point that goes look if I go,
let's just go through, let's go to the
the election, right? November, the the
first week of November.
There it is right there. So, that takes
you to there. Look how fairly quickly
weeks can go by and you just look we're
back.
If you think of it, we've been 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 weeks right from that low. And that
low had a high of 52,900
and a low of 51,500.
And where are we now? We're at 52,38
towards the lower part of the range. So
in another few weeks time, we could be
down here maybe at the 50,000 level at
some point. and maybe then have a bounce
or have a bounce beforehand. Whatever it
is, you don't know. And all I can say is
that these five bars, look how quickly
they go. Five bars can go really
quickly. So, I'm looking at this and
saying now the Dow's down 400 now. And I
want to do I want to show you some some
give you some perspective. First of all,
I want to show you the dollar. The
dollar is right now down 17 ticks at
98.69.
The low that was made in 98. Uh look,
you made 9856 9 two bar double bottom at
the 20th of August and 21st of August
lows and today's low so far is 98.60.
We was in an eyelink
of that right 56 4 cents away from the
low today. Low low is 9860.
So anything can happen. Now, what
happens if it does with the the dreaded
H pattern, which says you go right
through that left side low? The deeper
you go, the greater the chance you do
one to one to the downside. Hey, that's
a possibility. Meanwhile, back at the
ranch, let's just go back to gold. Gold
on the other hand is not This is also
arching over. It's at a high level, but
it isn't showing you that. Look, the
nine moving average just flipped to
negative. So, it's gold's up 24. It
really needs to be quite a bit high. It
needs to be into this red candle of the
uh 4th of September getting towards the
45 uh 30s. It just needs to do that if
you're going to show support. And the
weekly chart really is not that great.
Hey, look at the GDX. Completely keep
your eye on this weekly chart. Look at
that. This is a weekly chart. Look at
this.
Completely different chart. Look at that
beautiful cup formation. Look how you've
gone to a leg B and then a peak B. Look
how the nine period moving average is
held so beautifully. Look how you're
above the rectangle. I hope I can take
the rectangle away now. It's always this
yellow background within it. It's
irritating. It's great when you see it
when you need it. I'm just going to
remove it for now. Yep. Remove it. And
look, all of a sudden, you're looking at
the MACD positive, the relative strength
positive, the stochastics flattened 85%.
That's why we we we look we've got our
gold, we've added, we want to add a
little more. Um it really depends on
what happens over the next two days. So
within that context, even this falling
ax formation right here, we're on the
cusp of either breaking out or arching
over in the daily chart. So this is a
very important moment for the GDX which
has had a fabulous move from the 69 low
that was made back in July to the 105
high that was made uh just 3 weeks ago.
Uh all I can say is so far the 914 has
held well. The Matthew's weak strength a
little bit weak weak but that 914 is
gold and that is the gold and golden for
the gold
uh minus ETF. I'll be back. Dallas down
372.
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Yeah. So on my way through uh our little
ritual of looking at the different
industries etc. I had a question about
could I show the charts of Marll and
advanced micro devices. So look this is
Marll making a little arch formation in
the daily after making that peak F top
but it made a peak E alltime high at
329.8 80 uh
uh yes double top 324.20
back in June pulls back to 244 round
number low soarses back up it goes to
329.88 for peak F double top fails to
close above that left side high and then
it comes down and it comes all the way
down to the 162 level. I mean on 324 to
162 I would say 60 points is a big move
down but what does it do? It rallies up
to 250s drops down to the 200 area and
now it's at 2373.
That's what I meant about the semis.
They're not giving any clues. They've
given from the the Mar the June 3rd high
alltime high is taken June, July, August
and now we're into September. So it's
over 3 months it's been consolidating. I
would say another month or two and then
that consolidation should be complete
but there's still time to go and it's
not broken down yet but it is warning us
and very often the semis indicate the
direction of the market but they also
sometimes
um they are proactive so that you have
to wait a little while before the
general market actually picks it up and
that's what we're seeing right now the
general market is starting to fail and
they are trying to find some support So
Marll's looking good, but if you look at
the weekly chart, I would have my
contention right now is that they will
be going lower. That's my that's what
I'm looking at. The semis, it'll take a
little time, but there will be a moment
where all of a sudden it doesn't look
great. Maybe it's China or someone's not
buying like they thought they would be,
and all of a sudden they pull back. And
that's the pattern I'm looking at, the H
pattern right here in Marll, but it did
make a peak C in the monthly chart. It
should go to a D. All right. Now let's
go to what was the advanced micro
devices there are question came in also
same thing makes an alltime high um
that's a PD in the monthly chart PC in
the weekly chart so that's still
positive but 584.40 40 was the all-time
high back in uh late
June, early July. Also then had a 527
round number and then it just came
tumbling down and it went from 527 down
to the 417
level and now it's having a really nice
rally single leg a to the upside uh in
the daily chart. So this is this is very
important. That's this rotation I've
been talking about this not bifocation
but a trification
or quadification market where so many
look at this. Why would ARK
it's not probably not going to last but
why would ARC innovation fund um ETF be
holding so well?
Um it's had this move from the 68s back
in early August all the way to the 87s.
It's pulled back and here it is holding
pretty darn well. It isn't yet showing
that it's going to fail. I suspect it is
going to arch over. But why is it doing
I mean really and that just tells you
that within the uh parameters that are
set by the innovation fund stocks like a
Tesla anything innovative that Kathy
Wood thinks there's a 5 to 10 year huge
move to the upside of course there was a
huge move to the downside from 125 back
in November 2021 to 29. I would say if
she wasn't the owner of the company,
that fund manager would have been
bounced a long time ago. But now she's
doing things right and and right is
showing up in the chart. So something's
going on. Let's see where Tesla is
today. Tesla Tesla is probably Yeah,
look at that. It held that support. It
made that peak. It pulled back. Um it's
up three at 37175.
So this has to do with other things.
It's not a it's not a really an auto
company per se. It's really there's
battery. There's just so many other
things that just makes me think of this.
Where is um our stock?
Yeah. Iran. Because look, why do these
things jump like that? Um within the
rectangle. Remember my expression is a
long narrow rectangle can last a long a
lot longer than your patience. So look
what happened. I kept asking getting
questions about this. Should we be
buying the the um data centers, u
renewable energy, GPUs, etc. Well, uh we
we're long from the 22s. It went all the
way to 70.71. We got out quite a chunk,
but we kept a call because I think it's
in play for 2026, but it went down to
2933
uh back in 20 around about the 27th or
so of July. And then it ran to the
rectangle that that's where the
rectangle starts on the left side that
June high. And all of a sudden it goes
right to the door. It goes 4919 was pec.
So this becomes 49
29 10 cents above becomes a leg D and it
stalls right at the resistance level.
That's what rectangles can do. If this
starts to break into the 52 area, 53,
that'll be fabulous action. But then
you've got to look at Darn. What was
this? Ah.
Oh,
I'm forgetting what it is. I should know
it. I write it down all the time. Uh oh,
I know what it is. Let me just go to
this here again.
Okay. So within the sector itself, and
this is quite fascinating. So within the
sector, you've got many stocks that
looked like they were about to move and
then they just didn't. And then all of a
sudden, you get together with
Iran, you get NBIS.
Look at these. See, look at this. That's
a nice move to the upside. But it has
stalled. So, I'm watching this and I'm
saying, is this just a one-off? Is this
what happens in the market all the time
that you get these one-offs? It looks
great and then it just suddenly stops
dead. Well, I think yes, in this
particular case, I think that the data
center um there's there's so much going
on that I think it's a little rough
right now. They're going to break out I
think sometime uh in the maybe the end
of the third quarter, beginning of the
fourth quarter, but not just yet. I
might be wrong, but that's the way I'm
looking at it. All right. So, within
that context, the other thing I want to
look at here was um
I did that, it did that, I did that. Um
uh oh yes, crud. I just wanted to show
you something that I think is quite
fascinating. But crude oil is up three
right now. So if you look at UCO and we
had this once, we didn't get it and I
just missed it recently by 8 cents way
down here in the 44 area. And here it is
at at six uh at 50. Look at this. That
breakout is really important because
remember I talk about the the the cup
that is really a very large rectangle. I
took the rectangle out because as I say
it can get a little messy, but I'm going
to put it back in just for because
that's what initiated this whole move to
the upside. It goes right to the 200
period moving average
in the weekly chart and now it's gone
peak A peak B. Well, what's the rule of
thumb in the rectangle that is in a
lopsided cup formation? A a gravy cup
I'll call it. It says that if it's
making higher highs and higher lows and
it's come down basically a straight line
move either a trough A or single A or
even gone to a B and if that is it can
go back just under right on or just
above the previous high then after that
if it takes out the midpoint of the
rectangle be careful cuz it come all the
way back down. Well, the high that was
in USPO boom crude oil three times long
was 52.94.
It's only it's three points away. I
think we can get there. I'll be back in
a moment. Basel chic
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focus on a narrow set of equities or
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scan the entire market looking for these
hidden opportunities? One simple answer,
the opening call newsletter. Basil
Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave
trading methodology, has been trading
the markets for longer than most trading
influencers have been alive. And over
that time, he has honed his methodology
in order to accurately call movements in
a wide range of equities from
semiconductors to uranium to key indices
and so much more. Basil is old school,
taking the time to educate the trader
while also giving his insights into key
indices, selective stocks, and more.
Opening call subscribers also receive
access to dozens of educational live
streams that can be accessed at any time
for your edification. All firsttime
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>> I was asked whether or not um the
Chemway methodology works for
currencies. Yeah, it works for anything
that moves long as it has oscillation.
That's all. So, look. Yeah, this this
left side high that was made whatever
the time was. Let me just give you the
time. Back at about 2:00 yesterday was
at 2:00 p.m.
No, 2:00 a.m. in the morning. right
there at about 1.163
pulls back and there's a plum line. I
use that dogee candle as a midpoint and
there's jumping inside wedge target
repellent line went to a peak D. What do
we always look for? Pakds then it goes
into a sideways range and remember
rangebound market says as long as it's
walking the nine period moving average
you can keep the count up. So it goes
peak A B C from that low. Then it goes
to D, pulls back, goes ABC, goes to a D,
but then it goes to an E, pulls back
very sharply, goes now it goes peak A
right there. Now, when you get parallel
highs like that, I I I haven't done it
very much with the um currencies, but in
very I would have um some kind of a like
a I change it to red and say it's a
phantom peak, but I don't have to do
that right now. So, you can see it's
working. It doesn't work. Yeah. Look,
let me see what gold is doing. I I'm
just I'm guessing right now. Look,
there's the low. So, there's peak A,
peak B, peak C, peak D. Um, a another A
B C D pulls back and it's gone a b C and
it suggests that that high that was made
at 44,79.0
at 9:40 this morning, Eastern time
should be taken out for a leg or at peak
C1C2 if it just tags it. Um, yeah. So,
yeah, it works on any time frame and any
anything. I mean, crude oil. Crude oil.
Yeah, you just got to you got to
identify the low. Oh, look at that. Oh,
it drew that in. Look, this is crude
oil. Went to a peak E right there. D and
then an E at 4:00 a.m. in the morning
and pulls back. Does the left side right
side price time. Actually, I forgot
about that. And then it starts to brand
new peak. A B C D E stalls, comes back
down, and then has another A B.
Oh, yeah. A C D
and an A B C D right here. Yeah, it's it
works. And let's walk in the nine period
moving average. This is gold. Oh, sorry.
Crude oil of $2.99 right now. All right.
So, yeah, I just wanted to show you
that. Um, and that's why it's kind of
fun.
uh using it and not always easy, but
yeah. All right. So, this is what I want
to show you. Look, so my XLF
uh chart that I showed you before that
said there's a chance that we're making
some kind of a top shorter term because
the monthly chart is still only in
legacy in the XLF. So, I just need to go
to this for a second to show you how I
came about.
I always do that. Make that XLF. There
it is.
Okay, look at this chart.
So, what is that? Is that a mistake? Is
that some kind of a
format trend line? Yeah.
Can I remove it? Oh, I did. Okay. Look.
So, this pink, this is the bar chart,
monthly chart of the SPY S&P 500 and the
XLF select financials in blue. And look,
we're still the SPY made an all-time
high last month in September. So far, it
hasn't made a new high, but the XLF did.
And you remember the difference when we
were looking at this? How can I do that?
Can I move it? Oh, yeah. When we were
looking at it, should I do that? Well,
okay. When I was looking at it here, I
made a big deal about it and I said
everything's working in synchronicity.
the exact bar that makes the high, it
very often coincides with both of them
making the high and the low. But I spoke
about this that the XLF was failing, but
the spy was making all-time highs right
there. That started in
April going into May. And lo and behold,
finally, it did catch up. I had a trend
line that I drew across here and I said,
"Will it take it out?" And it did. So
now what you've got is slight difference
because the spy made an all-time high
last month. XF made it this month. So
I'm watching this and this is going to
give me good clues about the I about the
yields because if the yields
come down
TBT
and I sp when I speaking to interviewing
um
so that was just how long ago? It was
just an hour ago, right? I had Teddy on
online and we were looking at why have I
missed that TBT? Um when I was looking
at this and saying uh politically I just
mentioned politically but in fact it's
more important than just politically
uh if you're looking at yields
how think back when was the last time
that the Fed did anything before an
election in terms of yields? They
usually kind of stay away. They just
don't want to do anything. It just it
looks too political. I don't know if
this Fed would worry about that, but
maybe yes, maybe no. But it seems to me
that this is not an issue. I've spoken
about this for ages and I've said until
yields really break into the falls 4%
area, 410 420. Um that would be it's
trading at 38.23 right now. 3.823.
Until they do that, we're just stuck in
a rectangle. We have been here so many
times before and it really hasn't
affected. Yes, it's affected in a way
something like a Toll Brothers but I
think Toll Brothers had another problem
a different kind of a problem. So 16952
was the high in November 2024 and the
high in February of this year was
168.36.
I mean it is uncanny. I've done this for
decades. 168.56
168.56
I I've pointed out that these double
tops and double bottoms like round
numbers are giving you information. Look
at that failure right there. It's a
double top and the technicals were way
weaker than it made that. That says it
needs time to recover. So I suspect Toll
Brothers will have a really good couple
of months but not yet. I think you have
to wait a little while. So that goes
with the HDX index. HDX. Now I I I think
I've covered a chunk of things. So the
HDX, look at that under the 200 period
moving average in the weekly. This is a
Philadelphia
housing sector. So let me get to this.
Had a question about Apple.
Apple has this pattern that says you can
go up in a channel, but if you go to a
peak B and fail, that's the dreaded H
pattern potential. But if you go C, D,
and E, that means you've used up buying
and selling power. So you don't have
quite the same kind of selling power.
And therefore, this could stop. So Apple
trading at 313. I'm looking at the 3 307
to 305 level as critical to hold over
the next uh 2 to 3 weeks. And if you
look at the weekly chart, that looks
like a dreaded age pattern is about to
unfold. The 9140 is fabulous, but all
the other technicals are weak. And if
you look at the monthly chart, peak B
should still go to a C and a D higher
over 2026. I'll be back in a moment. D's
down 300 and 15 came back a little bit
less. We've done 26.
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Hello. So in the tiger tiger stand
CVX. So I said I believe that CDX should
still go through a leg D and that that
overlapping wave and I don't know why I
didn't put it in. Why did I not put that
in? I spoke about that completely over
overlapping
Chapman wave overlapping wave. This is a
chap wave. wave over overlapping
wave
to
leg.
I always put that in when I've got a PC
and then under it you have an A, a B,
and a C because what did we do? We
remember we had that it works out so
perfectly with uh was it
a one one of our one of the one of the
gold stocks I believe. So look at this.
Or was it a go? It was crude oil. Of
course it was crude oil. Uh so there's
your PC at 241.71
from April of this year. Pulls back to
154. Big big move down. And then we peak
C, gray A, gray B, gray C. And all of a
sudden today pops up uh 3.04 at 21284
with a high of 215.28.
There's your leg D. There's your leg D.
Uh and there's your leg D in the monthly
chart. So, when we're looking at crude
oil, maybe this is telling us we're
about to get to some resistance. We'll
see. But it's achieved exactly what
we're looking at. Next question came in.
CRT. CRT is trading. Where did I type
that? Probably typed it in the den.
Okay,
there it is. CRT.
Oh, look at that. CRT is Am I going to
be able to read this?
Uh, Cross Timbers Royalty. Oh, Cross
Timbers royalty. Is this a gold? Um, I'm
not sure. But anyway, it's gone peak APB
leg in the um
A B C D. Yes, leg C in the weekly chart.
AB leg C in the monthly chart. Oh,
horrible looking chart. But now
improving for the first time. the nine
period moving average since it crossed
pink way back in
um December of 2023 when it was up in
the 20 area uh plummeting down to the
sixes or sevens and now it's at 11.
Yeah. So this is really good. So let's
just do this for remember the bar that
makes the low cannot be the high. You
have to wait for a trough. So that's
just A B CDE E stalls brand new AB
legacy. This is really good. $1144
CRT up 22 cents today. Yes. So the 200
per moving average of 11.76 is my
target, but I need to see it tag. It
doesn't have to close, but it needs to
tag 1151. Then that 1176, look at this.
It hasn't been there forever. I mean, it
hasn't been there since it crossed
negative back in March of 2024 in the
17s. Every time it tried to get there,
look, peak A, peak B, under it, it goes
A, A, B,
uh, B. Yeah. And then it fails. And now
it comes back and it starts a brand new
A B C D E stalls. And there's a brand
new A B C. Yeah, I think this is the
first time that it has a good chance of
getting to the 1175 area and then it'll
hug that and if it goes above it needs
to get to 1250. It's a daily a weekly
chart and I would put it by this bar
right here by the uh first week of
October. It needs to be above 1240.
That'll be really positive because then
you can look at the left side and say,
"Aha, my target now is this chap wave
inverted. Perfect red falling ax.
This is a red Roman candle
uh the 4th of April with a high of 125,
sorry, a high of 1331 and a low of
10.79."
And then I'll say to you that the rule
of thumb is that if it's too long, but
it's still the same process that if it
can close any day above 1260, there's a
good chance it's going to try to go for
the high. So those are that's what I'm
looking at. Therefore, I have to tell
you that the support is at is 11:44.
Support in the weekly chart is at 1050
to 1020.
Hope that helps you. Next. It does look
good. Yes. Um,
okay. Next thing I want to look at here.
Oh, question came in.
If I could look at if I could look at uh
Robin Hood. So, Robin Hood all of a
sudden got a whole bunch of news and
everything. And that's what I said about
Robin. It's just very strange. It has
these fluctuations where it's in and
then it's out, then it's in and then
it's out. uh when we went long initially
at in the 16s back in August of 2024, it
had a spectacular move. We went to the
153 area back in October of 2025. We've
been taking profits and we've been had
it as a trading position quite a lot of
time being pretty successful. We've just
stepped aside adding and I'm I'm I'm
looking at it. It has a cross between
the Bitcoin action
uh the gold action and the fact that I
think investors and traders in Robin
using Robin Hood as a platform got
really burnt this year when the when the
gold just I mean some of those gold
stocks and silver stocks dropped some of
them over 50%. I mean that is huge
right? You might be a long-term holder
but that ain't pretty. All right. Now,
they're coming back quite nicely. But
most importantly, what I'm looking at is
that Robin Hood did this left side,
right side price match to the exact day
from the 120.05 July the 2nd high.
Um,
happy birthday to someone I know. Uh,
and comes all the way down to the 86
level right there on the 31st of July.
goes peak ABCD E and then gaps up to the
day that I had that measured move. Oh, I
forgot to put in the inside
wedge target repellent line. I think I
had it and then I had to take it out for
some reason. Yeah, look, that goes right
to there and it just took it out and now
it's been digesting gains. It went to
I'm calling it a G for now. I could make
it a G/B. I just don't see any need to.
I think it's going to do a little
consolidation, hopefully a high level
consolidation,
and we'll see. But in the meantime, back
at the ranch, the
move from 153 down to 63, I mean, really
a huge decline, right, percentage wise.
Um, and then it's gone leg A and now leg
B, a peak A, then leg A, B in the
monthly chart, leg D in the uh weekly
chart.
I just think it needs a little a little
bit of a rest, right? And there might be
time, but if it goes under 110 in the
next today's Wednesday, by Monday,
that's going to be a problem. And then I
really have to look at IBIT again.
That's the Bitcoin. Bitcoin right now uh
trading up 685. The IBIT is trading at
it doesn't have the same pattern. It's a
little more vigorous. It's more the the
um diamond pattern that people say oh my
god a diamond but I don't see it as an
oh my god a diamond I just see it as
consolidation phase but I lost quite
time for 38 it is for 46 years it's
trading right now 44 um yeah I think
that monthly chart is still looking
pretty darn good monthly chart needs a
lot of work I'll be back in my balance
down 283 S&P's
21 be right.
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Oh, uh, let me This is IYR, the eyesh.
Can you believe down to the 200 moving
average from hitting 108 down to 101 and
look at this peak F in the uh weekly
chart just real quick ABCD and then it
get stalls and it goes EF boom pulls
back peak C in the monthly still
positive but wow I mean these things are
so quick these these turnarounds. So,
uh, just a quick question here about,
um, yeah, the the patina that I talk
about, uh, let me just type that in
here. Dollar indu as we wrap up here.
Um, as far as I'm concerned, this is a
huge digestive phase. It can go on for a
little while longer. We've got internal
high. I'd said I'm not making that um,
internal low. I see no reason why. I
think it's going lower. And we've done
that. The big thing is going to be
52,000. We have 52,536
for the Dow. Dow has been the weakest.
There's no question about it. And one of
the reasons why we are short. But the
other thing that is really important
about it is that there's this rotation.
And you can see even now the the semis
are holding. They're up a little bit. So
it's a very mixed market. So as we're
going into 11:00 and this is when the uh
the Fed will announce the buybacks, etc.
A lot's going to happen. on the day of
the close if the Dow after 130 is still
down about 180 points or more probably a
weak close but anything can happen right
here you know this this this
administration they just manage I don't
know how they do it they just manage to
keep saving the day and saving the day
means that instead of the market just
tanking there is always something that
buoys the market and you can see that
even here um look the weekly chart
Even for the Dow, which is the weakest,
is still holding pretty darn well. So,
we'll see if there's another boing right
now to see if we can pop up and stall
everything from coming down. But in the
meantime, I think that the rotation is
saying be careful. Raise cash, have cash
ready for the going to be great
positions. But in the meantime, I'm
watching to see how does gold hold. It's
up 23. It needs to get to the U the 40.
They said 4462. He needs to get in the
4520s. Have a great rest of the day.
Check out my call day.