Video summary
Larry Pesavento from TFNN opens the market update by analyzing the Dow Jones Industrial Index, noting that while futures have already dropped below recent lows, the spot index remains just 300 points away from a critical support level. He identifies this specific price action as forming an ABCD pattern within an uptrend and expresses a strong bullish conviction, stating his intention to go long despite the current downward pressure. Pesavento emphasizes that mastering this particular trade is essential for understanding other market setups, suggesting that if a trader cannot execute this strategy in an established uptrend, they are likely unprepared for more complex opportunities elsewhere in the market.
The analysis then shifts to specific price targets and technical observations across major indices, with Pesavento highlighting key levels to watch in the E-mini S&P at 7600 down to 7590 and noting that the Nasdaq is unlikely to breach its current resistance despite appearing stronger than expected. He also points out a similar setup in the Russell index, which sits approximately 20 to 30 points away from its own critical level. To illustrate his point about identifying high-probability entries without guessing tops, he turns his attention to crude oil on the 60-minute chart, demonstrating how a precise 38.2% Fibonacci retracement perfectly aligned with a recent peak, validating his approach to taking asymmetric bets that offer favorable risk-reward profiles.
Looking ahead, Pesavento reveals that a significant setup is arriving at the top of the hour after a three-and-a-half-week wait, which he believes signals the beginning of a major rally in the stock market. Although he admits to currently holding short positions out of fear, he has already placed his stop-loss orders to manage risk while anticipating the upcoming move. He concludes the update by mentioning that the market is entering a new and exciting phase of trading, further noting the presence of a new moon which will add an interesting visual element to the session before promising to revisit these developments once prices return to the anticipated higher areas.
Read the full video transcript
TFNN
headline news update.
>> Okay, folks. Larry Pesavento for TFNN. I
posted a chart of the Dow Jones
Industrial Index, not the futures. Uh,
we've already taken out this low a few
days ago. We are 300 points away from
getting down to this level right here,
folks. And we know what that is called.
It's called an ABCD now. Please move up
to the speakers real close. And I'm
going to tell you something you're not
going to believe. I'm going long.
Yeah, it's an ABCD in an up market. If
you can't do that trade, you can't do
any of them. There's some other reasons
to possibly do it, but we're going to be
looking at longs. I've already posted
those in the in the video that I sent
out. Watch 7600
to 7590 in the E-mini E-S&P.
The Nasdaq is not going to make it. It
keeps acting stronger and stronger, so I
don't think it'll make it. The number in
the
uh, uh,
S&P I just gave that at 7590. And then
in Russell, it's at um,
25 90, I believe. It's only 20 or 30
points away from that one, but this is
what we're watching here, folks. Uh,
these are the kind of numbers and
there's a lot of reasons. And I'm
probably wrong on all of them, but I'm
going to give you what they are. Because
I think they're going to be kind of
exciting to look at. That's for sure.
And one of the my favorites, let's just
get up here and take a look at it, is
this old hubby right here. This is the
crude oil. There's crude oil on the
60-minute chart. And we just made a
number right up in here.
That's what you look at. Now, if you use
the the technique that we always talk
about, is to watch that first 382
retracement and there it was, right
there. Just spot on. Just there it is,
right there. You didn't have to try to
pick that top up there D. All you had to
do is set that there and look at it.
It's got a full point in it already. So,
that's the kind of asymmetric bets that
we're looking at, but there's one that's
coming up.
You got to do this one folks and it's
not it's not going to be an easy one,
but you got to do it and we've already
done it. And that's coming up at the top
of the hour. I've been waiting for 3 and
1/2 weeks for this thing to finally get
there and today is the day. That's why I
think we're getting ready to see one
hell of a rally in the stock market.
I'm still short, but I'm scared to
death. Anyway, I've got my stops in and
we'll see what happens. We'll cover this
when we get back up into these areas,
but uh
we're in a new area now we're going to
have some fun and there's a big as you
know, there's a big new moon out there,
which is going to be fun to look at too.
We'll be right back.