September 8th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] Okay, folks. Our guest coming up is Tim Orard of Orway Oracle.com. Uh Tim, are you on the line? >> I sure am. Here I am. So, this is Larry. >> Welcome. Welcome. Yes, it is. How are you? It's been a while since we spoke. [laughter] >> Yeah, it's been probably quite a few years. So, uh, my >> Yeah. Um, yeah, my website's uh www.orgenoracle.com and my email is is at timoracle.com. So, that's how you get me. I also have a Twitter account at uhordoracle. So, anyhow, that's how to get a hold of me. Um, I guess we can take a look at the market. Um, >> you're in charge, my friend. Please continue. >> All right. So, now this is the the daily spy. Um any we had some highs back in June right there about 755. Uh another high in July right there. Uh we had a sign of strength. That's SOS through those highs. Now, those highs should act support. We also had a gap there. That's the reason why I put that that number there is a gap at uh 76.52. And that gap had 69 million shares. [cough] Excuse me. Just throw this dry. And that happened on April 4th. That's what all the numbers are. And if you test the gap on 10% lighter volume, um it has support. Well, we test that gap on 40% lighter volume. And uh so you went down tested gap. So you tested uh 40% lighter volume. That gap should access support. Also, the previous high should access support. You should see a sign of strength off that low. This is uh last week you did rally uh not a whole lot, but you did rally and you did have another sign of strength. The volume did pop up. Not a lot. Uh it was kind of a weak sign of strength, but you still had one. Um and also, let's see, this is this is Monday. Uh no, this Tuesday that' be Friday. uh be Thursday. Thursday you had a gap right here and we're we test that gap today and that gap had uh 41 million shares and today we're lucky to hit 3 mill 30 million shares. So probably we're testing the gap of last Thursday in lighter volume and he's going to have another support area. So, in general, uh, this sideways consolidation, it's getting kind of messy in here, but this sideways consolidation, uh, uh, I wonder if I can get some of this stuff off. There we go. Anyhow, you can see the gap there. We're testing the gap today. Anyhow, the sideways consolidation, I think, is just going to end to the upside. And there's a couple reasons why. This is a bigger uh the bigger trend here. Uh the bottom window is the uh S&P VIX ratio. It's a weekly time frame and as long as it stays above the mid Ballinger band, which right there it is. And the uh S&P is above the mid Ballinger band and Ballinger bands right there. Uh trend should continue. So on a weekly time frame, we had a sinus strength which is uh this is a weekly now through the previous highs. to see bounce back down to the previous highs, found support, and so I think this week is a rally possibly into next week. So, we'll see how it goes. I did do some Fibonacci stuff here and only did retrace uh 38.2%. So, it's a pretty strong support. So, it didn't really trace a lot. So, at the moment, I think it trends up. How high is high? Don't know. Uh but this is kind of another indicator. It's kind of a momentum indicator and normally uh tops run momentum starts to really weaken and an RSI is way to measure momentum and uh if you get high momentum up around you know 70 80 that's usually a lot of strength for the rally to continue a majority of the time and the last rally we had off off of that uh 655 support which is June July high came in at 67 uh RSI which is pretty good. And so this next rally up potentially rally up like to see the RSI get up around 70 again. And that could, you know, would imply to me the rally could keep going. If we fail to get above 60, we're at 52 right now. So that's, you know, that would be a weak rally to the upside. That could be a sign of to worry. So, right now it's too soon to say what's going to happen because the rally is still inside that trading or the we're still inside the trading range. If we go back to this, you know, we haven't really broke out of this sideways trading range yet. But that's what I'm kind of waiting for. See how the RSI if it fails to get much above 60, you know, fails right around 60, which is all the previous highs happened here and here and here. you normally you can't get above 60 on the RSI and those are all you know decent tops. So will this happen this time around? Depends on the next rally. So that's why I'm kind of saying if it kind of just chugs up slowly and the RSI fails to get above 60 then that's be a time to worry. If we get around 70 or higher then I think we're okay. So we'll see how that works out. And here's kind of another indicator that kind of forewarns where tops can uh can form. Uh the bottom window is the 21day average of the ARMS index. And when ARMS index is below 1.2, normally that's considered panic. Panic's really good for the market. If you ever look at u 10day arms and 21-day arms, normally the panic which is up in this range here comes at lows. Uh and the opposite occurs if it gets too much optimism and you get a 21-day arms index you know below one which we are actually right now we're at 94 when I made this chart. I didn't update this chart but yeah 0.94 that can be a dangerous time. So, I'm thinking this next rally is not going to have a lot of froth to it. If it does, great. Then we keep holding. But if it doesn't, then you could be doing one of these things. Uh this is kind of a leading indicator. In other words, this can stay low for a number of of weeks if not months. But it does, you know, if we do rally and this thing fails to get above, I don't know, 1.1 or something, it'd be a worrisome sign. So, we don't have that. We haven't seen the rally perform yet, but the next rally is going to be really important how it performs. So, um I'm along the S&Ps. Um I think we're okay so far. This, you know, the the S&PX ratio staying above mid Ballinger band. The weekly S&P is staying in mid Binger band. So, I have to say at the moment trend still up. Depends how this next rally out of this sideways consolidation will perform. uh if it performs with volume and we do get decent price surge to the upside, uh all these other indicators I'm looking at will be remain bullish. If that doesn't happen, then um may sell out. We'll have to wait and see. But I'm still long right now. Okay, stay with us, Tim. We have to pay a few bills and we'll be right back. Okay. >> All right. Sounds good. [music] >> [music] >> Okay, folks. We have our guest Tim Or still in the line here. Tell us what we're looking at, Tim. Um, all right. Uh, we're going to flip over to the gold market. Um, uh, this is the, uh, let's see where we are. Okay. The the second window down from the the bottom. This window right here uh is the uh GDX up down volume with an 18-day average. And I went back uh to history. This chart goes back to 2014. And I marked the times when the up down 18-day average of the up down volume for GDX got above plus 40. And I think this was August 26th. I think it got above plus 40. And I marked all the other times that happened and there's one failure actually that was a high right here but but all the others worked out is what what it does it signals initiation of an uptrend. So it's like a sign of strength off of a bottom and it works pretty well. This one works I think it's 83% of the time if you go back to history. So, uh, once this thing gets triggered, uh, the rallies normally last anywhere from 4 to 6 months, and this was one failure here, but you go back in time, it works really well. And so, this big rally we had over the last couple of weeks, uh, triggered initiation and uptrend by the up down Boing. For some reason, it works better than this next window down the 18day average of advanced decline. Doesn't seem to work as well. Don't know why. So, I just use the up down volume one. And so, what this says, this rally, say it started September 1st, should the last uh to what be January of next year, that'd be 4 months to possibly uh March of next year, which is basically 6 months away. And so, we'll see how that works out. But we're long and strong on the gold stocks right now cuz um the consolidation is over and uptrend has started. Here's the same indicator but this is a 50-day average of the up down volume. So 18-day average is like uh you know 3 weeks uh 5 days in a week. So a 15-day average 3 weeks is 18 day average is a little over 3 weeks. This is 50 days. So that's like not quite 3 months. Uh but some why I didn't use 61 days cuz the 50 days seems to work better than 61 days which would be 3 months. What I'm hoping for if this rally can continue here and I mark the times here this this uh to trigger this type indicator. It doesn't do it's pretty it's more rare. I'll put it that way. chart goes back 2019 and I mark the times here when this indicator got triggered and what it does it signals rallies that last either you know a year 8 months or a year or so I'm thinking if we can get to plus 20 that would be initiation of an uptrend this has to come off a bottom it's already currently rallying uh I don't use that figure it has to be coming off a bottom and a bottom is reading below minus 15 other words a selling climax X has to turn into a sign of strength. And to get a sign of strength on this indicator to be a longerterm signal would get it to plus 20. We're coming in uh well at least uh today at 281. So what that says is this rally needs to continue to get to plus 20. If it gets to plus 20, say, over the next month, uh, then that would suggest this rally could rally into next March or to next September, a year from now, which I think is probably what's going to happen, but it's too soon to say, but either way, um, uh, momentum for the gold stocks is up. Um, here's another kind of a I do a lot with the divergence type things. Uh, this is the GDX G ratio. Uh, it's a little bit shorter term. goes back uh well this is a year uh goes back about 2 years and it works well uh when GDX when gold stock is outperforming gold that's what happens in an uptrend when gold outperform gold stocks that's usually what happens in a downtrend so right now I got ratio right here which is this chart here when it's rallying then gold stocks are outperforming gold and when it doesn't uh that little high we had back in October of last year right here. Uh uh gold stocks underperformed gold and that was that little divergence where uh GDX that went up that suggest a pullback and we got that little pullback here and right now uh we got the GDXG ratio hitting new highs in other words above the March high where GDX has not hit above the high. That's the reason why I put those lines there. So, uh, GDXG ratio is outperforming, um, again the gold stocks. And so, what this suggests at a minimum, uh, GDX should at least get back to this high and most at least and maybe it'll break it. Uh, we'll have to wait and see. Boy, I think it's what's what's going to happen going to break it. I did a little small window here. Uh this is a little bit shorter time because this chart goes back uh to the January 2026, but over the last couple of weeks, that's what these little windows are looking at. And you can see the divergence going on here. This is GDX in the top window, and it hasn't broke above its previous high yet of of a couple of weeks ago where GDX ratio is already back up to its previous highs. So, what that says to me on a short-term basis here, this rally is going to continue. So, we'll see what the March uh high looks like, which is up around that 117. Will we get through it? Uh probably will. Um so, we'll see on a bigger time frame. I got 2 minutes to go here. Um this is uh the uh I keep showing this chart because it really has a lot of importance to it, but the bottom window is the uh monthly GDXG ratio. And you can see what happens at major highs. This ratio makes lower highs as GDX makes higher highs. It also picked up the 2011 high kind of made higher highs. This ratio went right through the floor. And right now we got GDX has not got above its previous high yet. And this ratio is already breaking out above its previous high. And again, if you also notice, we've been in a trading range from basically uh I don't know 0.1 to 0.2 for 13 years. That's an awful long time going sideways in a trading range and we're due for a breakout. That's exactly what I think was going on right now. The last high is 0.24. We're at 0.25 right now. This is on a monthly time frame. So, we need to close above 0.25 or higher for this ratio to break out. If it breaks out, the next upside target is uh 04, which is basically pretty much double from here, which is basically at this high back at 2011 high. So, I think that's where we're heading. But if this ratio goes to 04, that means GDX will double without gold moving at all. If you do the statics or do the math for it, uh that would mean GDX would go to 100. But gold will rally along with the the gold stocks. So go GDX may go to 250. I don't know. Uh but this ratio looks like it's breaking out and next upside targets 4. Uh to get to point4 that means GDX would have to double without gold moving from here and I think that's where we're heading. So I think next 12 months uh for the gold stocks are going to be one good ride to the upside. So, uh, I don't see any major hurdles yet that may come up, but so far everything looks bullish here. I'm staying along the gold stocks. >> Great stuff. I love the charts. The prettiest ones I've ever seen, Tim. >> Yeah, they are. They are pretty. So, >> they sure are. Thanks for joining us. We'll have you on again soon, my friend. Thank you. >> All right. Thank you. Talk to you. [music] >> [music]