September 8th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. >> Let's go to uh Alan Homosasa. Hey Al, what's going on? >> Uh isn't it wonderful? This gentleman here with the gold report right before the market fell apart ended up with PNAS. We had a 98% gain in a [music] year and uh I mean you weren't 99% proof like Irish whiskey, but we had a good gain there. You always told us to do what we feel comfortable with. And if I lose a little bit of money on the table, I will. But I know that I just pocketed eight or $9,000 in two weeks. [music] >> That's a beautiful thing, man. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. [music] Okay, folks. Larry P Larry Pesano setting in for Tom O'Brien. Today, folks, we'll start out with Apple. Had a question from one of our listeners here at TFN. Why Apple is so weak? I don't know the answer to those questions. I can show you the charts, but you can see here that we did have a retracement up here up around that 330 level. If we looked at this on a simple hourly chart, you'll see that it's been in a very negative mode right ever since 3:30 and we've been coming down uh quite sharply. The only thing that we do know that each of the rallies has been quite minor. In fact, the one that we had today was almost a perfect uh retracement. As you can see here early this morning, we had this 383 retracement at 320 and it's already broken down $5. As you most of you know that are watching the markets, we have a bifurcated market that Basil Chapman always talks about and that is some of the markets are looking stronger than others. We look at Philadelphia semiconductor index and it looks incredibly strong. But if you look at some of the others, uh it's not doing nearly as well as one would expect. Okay, so those are the things that we're going to try to cover here as we go through and look at some of these things we're watching today. Now, let's take a look at the Dow Jones transportation. I know most you folks uh don't remember, excuse [clears throat] me, folks. Give me one second. The transportation used be uh used to be very very important but we're going to take a look at it and you can see here that the transportations has been leading the market down here for quite some time. Okay, if you remember Richard Russell from the Dow Jones theory, he said that they have to go together and they're certainly not. You see, we topped back here on July the 12th. Okay, and here's where we are now. We've just completed a major pattern right here and there should be really strong support here. But if we look at this closely now, this is the Dow Jones Transportation. That's only 20 stocks. But you can see here, we've had a 1 2 3 4 day rally, and the market hasn't done very much at all. All these other ones have had pretty good rallies, but for coming off of this major 61% retracement here, that I I assume that would be a very negative uh indicator of looking at that. Now, I know that gold was one of Tom's favorite thing to look at. And what we're going to do now is take a look at the gold market because it's one of the things that uh just pays your bills all the time. Let's all the well most of the time. Let's put it that way. Let's get it up. Let's get this uh just give me one second here to get the go here. It is right now. We've been having a correction here in the gold market. There's what we've been doing over the last few days. As you can see here, we made a 50% retracement here last night in the ABCD format and we started down sharply and we've been going down uh ever since. If we look at this on the long-term daily, folks, which we like to do, you can see there's that 50% retracement off of this high right back here, which was an absolute monster of a place to get short the gold up there at that 50 4710. And here's where we are now. What this is assuming, folks, and if you watch the gold market, it repeats over and over again. As you can see here, these last rallies were almost exactly alike. Just absolutely spot on. And that [clears throat] told you, and since you were sitting at the 78% retracement of this high and a 61% retracement of the high back here in January of last year, that tells you that the market usually has a probability of going lower. what we would have set up now just looking on this daily because we had a two-day rally. See, we came down seven days, had a two-day rally, and that would [clears throat] expect expect us to take us down to this level right here in gold market, which would be down here right around 4,100. That's down about another uh 170 points, 120 points from where we are right now. So, we want to watch this will be really key support should we get to this level. And I think we will, but we'll we'll do one thing at a time and see that we get that moving the right way. Now, we also had a question from one of our listeners about the Hong Kong index. And I'll get this up here and we'll take a quick look at it. And you'll see this is the daily chart of the Hong Kong index, which has been quite bearish. And as you can see here, we've had a big gap down here this morning. And uh we'll move it over here. Uh these 135 patterns, folks, I'll bring this up to you and show you. This shows you the symmetry of the market. There it is right there. There. This is this what this is. Declining cops is what it is, folks. It's another name for it. It's also the head and shoulders pattern. Left shoulder, head, right shoulder. And then we also have the 135 pattern. Uh just a second so I can mark that up right here. And that's what you're looking at. And that is nothing more than a downtrending market as you can see. Well, what we'll do is we'll get rid of that and we'll just extend this over a little bit. This shows you the ABCD sitting down. Okay. Now, but we're looking at I want to show you this. You see that's what that is. That's just extending down. That's all that is telling you that you have three points. Now, look at this. You see have lower tops again. This is uh [laughter] Yes, I know that Tim Tim Lord is coming on. I'm absolutely I'm waiting for it myself cuz I'm interested to hear what he has to say. Uh just be with us. Uh stay with us, Tim. I'll have you on. Anyway, there's there's that same pattern again. You see the the 135? Here it is again. 1 135. It repeats over and over again. Why this is such a good pattern, folks, is it forces you to trade with the trend. You don't have to try to pick a top. All you're looking at is trying to to to find a market that's going down and sell that market. All right. So, let's uh keep an eye on that as we look at this through this. I'm I'm hoping well Tim is an expert at this and I I know he'll whether whether he has some of looking at the same things or not I don't know but I'm just showing you what I see and uh but that's main thing I I will I will tell you really honestly folks when I heard the introduction here and I heard the Tom O'Brien show I boy I tell you I've been doing this for 19 years for Tom and I've known he and the whole family all those years and I met Tom in 2001 at the at the money go after the uh 9/11. And boy, I'll tell you that was a that was a really uh really scary one. It was feas of O2 is when it was. They were I don't want to go into that. That's not necessary, by the way. I don't know. Um we will uh Okay. Okay. Hold on. We'll be right back. I get uh All right. Here. Let's get back here in one second. and I'm messing up a little bit here, but uh we're going to continue uh with some of these things that we're watching and that's about it and we'll see what's uh going on here. So, we got a uh 30 seconds to go uh for the next break and I wanted to bring to your attention the crude oil folks because crude oil's had a very big run here for the past several weeks and we've been saying there's very strong probability that we're in a topping area. There it is right there. This the same pattern that I'm looking at here. You can see we've made a new high a little above the area. We're trading right at the number now at 9358. We'll be right back. [music] If you spend any time online [music] researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push Forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. 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Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. [music] Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At [music] TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their [music] very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. [music] TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market [music] before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free [music] with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just visit [music] the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious [music] text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's [music] YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 [music] p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking [music] calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger [music] TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and become [music] the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. [music] >> [music] >> Okay, folks. Let's go over to our main man, Basil Chapman. Basil has been an outstanding news letter and he's been writing the opening call. You can subscribe to the opening call by going to tfn.com. Hit that newsletter button at the top of the page and click on the opening call newsletter button right there. There it is. Basil Chapman, how are you doing, my friend? Um, do I hear something? I don't hear anything. >> I hear you. I hear you coming in. Good. Basel, how are you, >> Larry? Setting in. Setting in for Tom. How are you doing, buddy? >> I'm doing great. And you know what's so fascinating? I've heard you talk about these different techniques for so long. And I thought I'd introduce something to you that I do, and I've done this for decades, but it coincides so much with what you do. I I've got the Dow chart up here on the left. [clears throat] So, I look at two at three core patterns all the time and I'll show them right here. One is a straight up and straight down pattern. The other is a cup formation. The other is an arch formation and you can have a mix of one and two and one and three. And in this case, you can see the Dow. And the other thing I just wanted to mention is that I'm always looking for the lowest low and I count each successively higher peak. And if it gives gives an upgrade of a buy signal to a buy mode, it should go to at least four higher peaks. That's peak D. This has got nothing to do with your A to B equals C to D. This is just counting the peaks alphabetically on the upside. So look at this. The Dow went to a peak D on the 5th of August at 54,744. We were long at that time. Then we got out and we watched it come down and I said the pattern that I look for is this particular pattern. This is one and three where it comes straight down, arches over, fails at a peak B and then test the left side low. I call it the H pattern. If it fails uh much sharper, it's called the dreaded H because it can really go down sharply. So what happened is the Dow went to 52,754. That was the middle of August. Rallies fails at that peak B that I was talking about. pulls back and then goes to an arch formation and then the lowerase H can go to a lowerase M. It's as simple as that. There's the H. And I've been talking about this for weeks now. I'm saying I anticipate that the upside is limited and there's [clears throat] a really good chance that we're going to go to an arch formation and then make a second arch for that Mshaped pattern. And if this 52,600 level is taken out, that's going to be bad news for the Dow. That's where we are right now. And we've pulled back sharply in the second arch formation. The other thing I thought I'd talk about uh is so I I listen to you so often for years and years and I I love all the techniques that you talk about. You really say I've only got A to B equals C to E, but really you've got a ton and they are fantastic to watch and to learn. So I'm looking at this and I'm I'm saying ah I'm going to show Larry something. So we are long a stock called core mining and you talk about the I I call it bar symmetry. You know how you always count the number of bars on the left side and the number of bars on the right. I've always called it bar symmetry. Now look at this. This is a stock that it's a gold and silver stock core mining. And look at this. From the high that was made back in April of this year, 21.47, it comes down. And I chose this particular peak right here to choose that as a left side, right side price time match. I drew this in a long time ago. And then um we had already been long this for some time. And look what happened. It went down to 13.93. Makes this cup formation. Within that there's this left side, right side price time match to the exact low of the 17th of July and it rallies and it goes to one bar early. It goes to that exact high that was made over there. And then I had another one for the longer term which went to that 2147 level and look what happened. It went right to the 2040 2147 level uh on the There it is. on the 20th of August. So that's bar symmetry. So sometimes it's exact like this one that went in the number of bars from that peak right over there on the 17th of June down to the low of the 17th of July and was the exact number of well it was one bar early getting to that exact level in the cup formation. And there's another technique that I have where I use the pen ultimate trough to use a trend line. I call it on the way up. It's called the dash green target resistance line. And look how it kept hitting it and then it broke it and then it did it for the second one to the top. So I thought I' I'd show you that how I like to use the same technique. I used this for the um for the weekly chart. I'll show you here where it went from a low on the week of the 21st of August of November of 2025 from 1355. It went all the way up to a peak and then it came down and I use this candle right here on the week of the 27th of March and it came down and it retested exactly and then it broke to the upside. So I love to do these the same kind of work but using slightly different parameters. And you can see this is a monthly chart of the same stock. In August of 2016 it went to 16.42. It pulled back sharply and then it rallied and it went to a peak D. Remember the fourth highest peak is the we always look for on the 26th of February at 1260. And look at this. This is from 2016 August and look what happened. Um in this is September of this year of of sorry 2025. One week late it came in exactly it took that level out. So this is the same the same um basic concept that you're looking at symmetry from the left side to the right side. We have another one called uh AEM Agnikica Eagle. It did pretty much the same thing. You can see here in the daily chart. Um let me just move this to the right. This is the daily chart. It went from 224.35 back in April all the way down to 134.38 in uh July. And look what happened. I use a particular candle. If I don't get the exact symmetry of the bar to the bottom or the bar to the top, I have to find a different bar. So, I teach that in my webinars. And it did to the 200.64 retracement. It got there exactly on time. And to the 224.35, it went to u this last high that was made at 224.43. And that was 1 2 3 4 5 6 months later. So, I love the idea of this bar symmetry. Um, I thought I'd just I'd show it to you uh because um you know, you doing it all the time in your particular methodology. And there's one other thing I thought I'd show you if I can just find I made some notes here. You were speaking about IYT, that's the transportation index. And uh of course, this goes back to Dow theory, but I didn't want to do that. I also look at round numbers. So on the 16th of July, it made an all-time high. This is the eyesh transportation average. Went to a peak F in the CHF wave methodology. And the very next day, the high was 6 cents lower around number 90.00 and it came straight down. It went 86 and then it bounced and there's this dreaded H pattern at that peak B. Look, the arch formation and it took out the left side low of the >> Very good. Very good. Awesome. >> Thought I'd show you one of those. >> Yes, really great. A just does look beautiful. That's for sure. It's very easy to see. Basil, thanks for sharing with us, my friend. >> Thank you. And have a great interview with Tim. Okay. >> Okay. You bet. [music] >> [music] >> Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or [music] commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these [music] hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer [music] of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology in order to accurately [music] call movements in a wide range of equities from semiconductors to uranium to key indices [music] and so much more. Basil is old school, taking the time to educate the [music] trader while also giving his insights into key indices. selective stocks and more. Opening call subscribers also receive access to dozens of educational live streams that [music] can be accessed at any time for your edification. All firsttime subscribers receive a 30-day money back guarantee. So, ignore the pop trading influencers and start learning time- tested technical analysis. Steve RH started his trading career as a student almost 20 years [music] ago, and the student has now become the master. 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You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious [music] text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. [music] live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern for free. Each [music] host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From [music] the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or [music] on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. >> This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions, daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors Inc. [music] Okay, folks. Our guest coming up is Tim Orard of Ordway oracle.com. Uh Tim, are you on the line? >> I sure am. Here I am. So this is Larry. >> Welcome. Welcome. Yes, it is. How are you? It's been a while since we spoke. [laughter] >> Yeah, it's been probably quite a few years. So, uh my >> Yeah. Um Yeah. My website's uh www.orgenoracle.com odd dy-enoracle.com and my email is is at timoracle.com. So that's how you get me. I also have a Twitter account at uh oracle. So anyhow, that's how to get a hold of me. Um I guess we can take a look at the market. Um >> you're in charge, my friend. Please continue. >> All right. So this is the the daily spy. Um anyhow, we had some highs back in June right there about 7:55. Uh another high in July right there. Uh we had a sinus strength that's SOS through those highs. Now those highs should act support. We also had a gap there. That's the reason why I put that that number there is a gap at uh 76.52 and that gap had 69 million shares. Excuse me. to throws dry and that happened on April 4th. That's what all the numbers are. And if you test the gap on 10% lighter volume, um it has support. Well, we test that gap on 40% lighter volume. And uh so we went down tested gap. So you tested uh 40% lighter volume. That gap should access support. Also the previous high should support. You should see a sign of strength off that low. This is uh last week you did rally uh not a whole lot but you did rally and you did have another sign of strength. The volume did pop up not a lot. Uh it was kind of a weak sign of strength but you still had one. Um and also let's see this is this is Monday. Uh no this Tuesday be Friday. Uh it' be Thursday. Thursday you had a gap right here and we're we test that gap today and that gap had 41 million shares and today we're lucky to hit 3 mill 30 million shares. So probably we're testing the gap of last Thursday in lighter volume and it's going to have another support area. So, in general, uh, this sideways consolidation, it's getting kind of messy in here, but this sideways consolidation, uh, uh, wonder if I can get some of this stuff off. There we go. Anyhow, you can see the gap there. We're testing the gap today. Anyhow, the sideways consolidation, I think, is just going to end to the upside. And there's a couple reasons why. This is a bigger uh the bigger trend here. Uh the bottom window is the uh S&P VIX ratio. It's a weekly time frame and as long as it stays above the mid Ballinger band, which right there it is. And the uh S&P is above the mid Ballinger band and Ballinger bands right there. Uh uptrend should continue. So on a weekly time frame, we had a sinus strength which is uh this is the weekly now through the previous highs. see bounce back down to the previous highs, found support, and so I think this week is a rally possibly into next week. So, we'll see how it goes. I did do some Fibonacci stuff here and only did retrace 38.2%. So, it's a pretty strong support, so it didn't really trace a lot. So, at the moment, I think it trends up. How high is high? Don't know. Uh, but this is kind of another indicator. It's kind of a momentum indicator and normally uh tops run momentum starts to really weaken and an RSI is way to measure momentum and uh if you get high momentum up around you know 70 80 that's usually a lot of strength for the rally to continue a majority of the time and the last rally we had off off of that uh 655 support which is June July high came in at 67 uh RSI which is pretty good. And so this next rally up potentially rally up like to see the RSI get up around 70 again. And that, you know, would imply to me the rally could keep going. If we fail to get above 60, we're at 52 right now. So that's, you know, that would be a weak rally to the upside and that could be a sign of to worry. So, right now it's too soon to say what's going to happen because the rally is still inside that trading or the we're still inside the trading range. If we go back to this, you know, we haven't really broke out of this sideways trading range yet. But that's what I'm kind of waiting for. See how the RSI if it fails to get much above 60, you know, fails right around 60, which is all the previous highs happened here and here and here. you normally you can't get above 60 on the RSI and those are all you know decent tops. So will this happen this time around? Depends on the next rally. So that's why I'm kind of saying if it kind of just chugs up slowly and the RSI fails to get above 60 then that's be a time to worry. If we get around 70 or higher then I think we're okay. So we'll see how that works out. And here's kind of another indicator that kind of forewarns where tops can uh can form. Uh the bottom window is the 21 day average of the ARMS index. And when ARMS index is below 1.2, normally that's considered panic. Panic's really good for the market. If you ever look at uh 10day arms and 21 day arms, normally the panic, which is up in this range here, comes at lows. Uh and the opposite occurs if it gets too much optimism and you get a 21-day ARMS index, you know, below one, which we are actually right now. We're at 0.94 when I made this chart. I didn't update this chart, but yeah, 0.94 that can be a dangerous time. So, I'm thinking this next rally is not going to have a lot of froth to it. If it does, great. Then we keep holding. But if it doesn't, then you could be doing one of these things. Uh this is kind of a leading indicator. In other words, this can stay low for a number of of weeks if not months. But it does, you know, if we do rally and this thing fails to get above, I don't know, 1.1 or something, it'd be a worrisome sign. So, we don't have that. We haven't seen the rally perform yet, but the next rally is going to be really important how it performs. So, um I'm along the S&Ps. Um I think we're okay so far. This, you know, the the S&PX ratio staying above mid Ballinger band. The weekly S&P is staying bider band. So, I have to say at the moment trend still up. Depends how this next rally out of this sideways consolidation will perform. uh if it performs with volume and we do get decent price surge to the upside uh all these other indicators I'm looking at will be remain bullish. If that doesn't happen then uh may sell out. We'll have to wait and see. But I'm still long right now. >> Okay. Stay with us, Tim. We have to pay a few bills and we'll have you right back. Okay. >> All right. Sounds good. [music] >> [music] [music] >> If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. tfn educating investors. For [music] traders who crave risk, directions daily leveraged and inverse ETFs provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bare funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. These are highly leveraged ETFs with daily resetting designed for short-term trading, not long-term investing. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. For up-to-date pricing and performance, go to direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and [music] actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. [music] Read carefully. ALPS Distributors Inc. The reality is that navigating financial markets can [music] be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having [music] the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. [music] At TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. [music] That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's [music] markets. TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before [music] you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just visit [music] the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. TFN has launched the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger Stand available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch [music] or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm Orion. Okay, folks. We have our guest Tim Or still in the line here. Tell us what we're looking at, Tim. Um, all right. Uh, we're going to flip over to the gold market. Um, uh, this is the, uh, let's see where we are. Okay. The the second window down from the the bottom. This window right here uh is the uh GDX up down volume with an 18-day average. And I went back uh to history. This chart goes back to 2014. And I marked the times when the up down 18-day average of the up down volume for GDX got above plus 40. And I think this was August 26th. I think it got above plus 40. and I marked all the other times that happened and there [clears throat] was one failure actually that was a high right here but but all the others worked out is what what it does it signals initiation of an uptrend so it's like a sign of strength off of a bottom and it works pretty well this one works I I think it's 83% of the time if you go back to history so uh once this thing gets triggered uh the rallies normally last anywhere from four to 6 months And this was one failure here. But you go back in time and it works really well. And so this big rally we had over the last couple of weeks uh triggered initiation and uptrend by the up down volume. For some reason works better than this next window down is the 18day average of advanced decline. Doesn't seem to work as well. Don't know why. So I just use the up down volume one. And so what this says this rally say it started September 1st. Should the last uh to what be January of next year, that'd be four months to possibly uh March of next year, which is basically 6 months away. And so we'll see how that works out. But we're long and strong on the gold stocks right now cuz um the consolidation is over and uptrend has started. Here's the same indicator, but this is a 50-day average of the upown volume. So 18-day average is like uh you know 3 weeks uh 5 days in a week. So a 15-day average be 3 weeks is 18 day average is a little over 3 weeks. This is 50 days. So that's like not quite 3 months. Uh but some why I didn't use 61 days cuz the 50 days seems to work better than 61 days would just be 3 months. What I'm hoping for if this rally can continue here and I mark the times here, this this uh to trigger this type indicator. It doesn't do it's pretty it's more rare. I'll put it that way. This chart goes back 2019 and I mark the times here when this indicator got triggered. And what it does, it signals rallies that last either, you know, a year, 8 months, or a year. So I'm thinking if we can get to plus 20 that would be initiation of an uptrend. This has to come off a bottom. It's already currently rallying. Uh I don't use that figure. It has to be coming off a bottom. And a bottom is reading below minus 15. In other words, a selling climax has to turn into a sign of strength. And to get a sign strength on this indicator to be a longerterm signal would get it to plus 20. We're coming in uh well at least uh today. 281. So what that says is this rally needs to continue to get to plus 20. If it gets to plus 20, say over the next month, uh then that would suggest this rally could rally into next March or to next September, a year from now, which I think is probably what's going to happen, but it's too soon to say. But either way, um uh momentum [snorts] for the gold stocks is up. Um here's another kind of a I do a lot with the divergence type things. Uh this is the GDX ratio. Uh it's a little bit shorter term. It goes back uh well this is a year uh goes back about 2 years and it works well. Uh when GDX when gold stock is outperforming gold that's what happens in an uptrend. When gold outperform gold stocks that's usually what happens in a downtrend. So right now I got GDXGL ratio right here which is this chart here. When it's rallying then gold stocks are outperforming gold. And when it doesn't uh that little high we had back in October of last year right here uh uh gold stocks underperform gold and that was that little divergence where uh GDX went up. that suggest a pullback and we got that little pullback here and right now uh we got the GXGL ratio hitting new highs in other words above the March high where GDX has not hit above the high that's the reason why I put those lines there. So, uh, GDXG ratio is outperforming, um, again the gold stocks. And so, what this suggests at a minimum, uh, GDX should at least get back to this high and most at least and maybe it'll break it. Uh, we'll have to wait and see. Boy, I think it's what's what's going to happen going to break it. I did a little small window here. Uh this is a little bit shorter time cuz this chart goes back uh to the January 2026. But over the last couple of weeks, that's what these little windows are looking at. And you can see the divergence going on here. This is GDX in the top window. And it hasn't broke above its previous high yet of of a couple of weeks ago where GDX ratio is already back up to its previous highs. So what that says to me on a short-term basis here, this rally is going to continue. So, we'll see what the March uh high looks like, which is up around that 117. Will we get through it? Uh probably will. Um so, we'll see on a bigger time frame. I got 2 minutes to go here. Um this is uh the u I keep showing this chart because it really has a lot of importance to it, but the bottom window is the uh monthly GDXGL ratio. And you can see what happens at major highs. This ratio makes lower highs as GDX makes higher highs. It also picked out the 2011 high kind of made higher highs. This ratio went right through the floor. And right now we got GDX has not got above its previous high yet. And this ratio is already breaking out above its previous high. And again, if you also notice, we've been in a trading range from basically uh I don't know 0.1 to 0.2 for 13 years. That's an awful long time going sideways in a trading range and we're due for a breakout. That's exactly what I think was going on right now. The last high is 0.24. We're at 0.25 right now. This is on a monthly time frame. So, we need to close above 0.25 or higher for this ratio to break out. If it breaks out, the next upside target is uh 04, which is basically pretty much double from here, which is basically at this high back at 2011 high. So, I think that's where we're heading. But if this ratio goes to 04, that means GDX would double without gold moving at all. If you do the statics or do the math for it, uh that would mean GDX would go to 100. But gold will rally along with the the gold stocks. So go GDX may go to 250. I don't know. Uh but this ratio looks like it's breaking out and next upside targets 4. Uh to get to 04 that means GDX would have to double without gold moving from here and I think that's where we're heading. So I think next 12 months uh for the gold stocks are going to be one good ride to the upside. So, uh, I don't see any major hurdles yet that may come up, but so far everything looks bullish here. I'm staying along the gold stocks. >> Great stuff. I love the charts. The prettiest ones I've ever seen, Tim. >> Yeah, they are. They are pretty. 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Right on the high, matching that high right there. It's backed off quite a bit. As you can see, we're down about 10 cents from the high. We'll look at this on a little shorter time frame, and you'll be able to see what I'm saying. There it is. Right there was the high. You can see it's backed off, and it's been coming down quite a bit. It's down exactly 10 cents. Doesn't seem like a lot, but 10 cents in copper, folks, is $2500. The fact that it made that double top may or may not mean something, but the fact that it could not get above the old high by more than 50 is really a big surprise. So that means there was a lot of selling coming in at that particular point. And and one thing that copper does do, folks, it follows the ABCD patterns just about as well as gold and silver and platinum. They're just lining up just really nicely when you see them line up. And that's what we're paying very very close attention to. So I I hope that helps you as you see some of these things unfold. And uh they're there a lot. The trouble is they don't work all the time. Sometimes they fail and those are the ones you don't trade. The main thing is is don't trade the losing trades. Unfortunately, we never know which ones those are, so we got to trade them all. It's all about probabilities. It's not how much money you make, it's how much money you don't lose. Keep that in mind and you'll always be safe. So, thanks for joining me today and we'll see you on the flip side tomorrow. [music] >> [music] [music]