September 4th The Trader's Edge with Steve Rhodes on TFNN - 2026

Duration: 9:00 1714 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

Steve Rhodes opens his segment by addressing the mixed performance of the markets, noting that while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained ground, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined, with the Russell 2000 remaining relatively flat. He highlights a significant technical development regarding the Dow's all-time high, pointing out that when priced in Canadian dollars, it recently made a new record. Rhodes references his previous studies involving other currencies like the Euro, Yen, and British Pound, which indicated that a true market top is not confirmed until the index peaks in foreign currency as well; since the Canadian dollar version of the Dow has already hit a high, he argues that the recent peak was not a definitive bear market top. This perspective is further supported by the fact that the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline oscillator has remained below zero for over a week, suggesting that buyers still hold an edge as evidenced by the spot VIX trading below its 50-day exponential moving average. The core of Rhodes' analysis focuses on the importance of weekly closing prices relative to oscillator change lines, particularly as the market enters the seasonal cycle of September. He explains that if all major cash indices close below their respective green oscillator change lines, it would signal a loss of upward momentum and likely lead to sideways or lower price action. Although he notes a brief moment where the New York Stock Exchange index flipped back above its line, making it difficult to trade based on that specific metric alone, his primary watchlist remains on whether prices can sustain levels above these critical thresholds. He emphasizes that while the recent high in the Dow does not guarantee further gains next week, it effectively rules out an immediate 20% bear market correction, a conclusion reinforced by the Nasdaq's QQEW indicator making a new all-time high without the broader index having topped out. Shifting to intraday charts, Rhodes provides detailed technical setups for the Nasdaq-100 (NQ), S&P 500 E-mini (ES), and Russell 2000 futures, identifying specific topping patterns that suggest potential downside targets. He expresses particular concern over a five-hour TD 9 count top on the NQ chart, where price has pulled back to test an oscillator change line at approximately 29,396; a rejection here could set up a bullish pattern, but a close below this level would indicate a move toward lower targets around 29,184. Similarly, he tracks support levels on the ES mini futures near 7,771.50, warning that breaking below this area could lead to further declines until a bottom signal forms on shorter time frames. He also highlights a Gartley buy pattern in the Russell 2000 targeting a rally toward 2,994 and notes that the Nasdaq remains above its profile bottom with an oscillator change line suggesting a potential rally toward 29,792. In conclusion, Rhodes wraps up his analysis by advising traders to watch for specific price levels where support might fail, particularly on the NQ and ES charts, which he believes are driving the current market direction. He reiterates that while there are no immediate bottom signals visible on the five-hour S&P 500 chart, the market is currently trading below key support zones, and any sustained break lower could trigger a move toward the next logical targets identified by his technical models. As he signs off for the Labor Day weekend, he encourages listeners to monitor these levels closely over the coming days, noting that a close above a specific high from August 28th would negate the current downside pattern on the ES mini. Ultimately, his message is one of cautious observation, urging traders to wait for confirmation before acting, as the market appears poised to test these critical technical boundaries in the near term.

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The following is a presentation of T F N N. The Traders Edge with Steve Rhodes. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally [music] at 727-873-7618. The Traders Edge. Now, Steve Rhodes. >> Good morning, folks. Hey, I'm going to just simply cut the cut to the chase here because I only have the opportunity to do one segment with you. I'm going to my back my neck doctor's you know I've got a pretty bad neck out there right now and trying to go get that repaired before we enter the holiday weekend. So, we're just going to get into it right now. We've got a mixed bag out here with regard to the markets. We've got the Dow up 370, S&P down 36, Nasdaq down one point, Russell's off Russell's basically flat with the transports and semis up 175 and 342 respectively. Nasdaq composite off 113, New York Stock Exchange down 87. Spot VIX is below its 50-day exponential moving average. So, buyers still have the edge out there. Gold's off 55 bucks, silver's down 97 cents, light crude up 92 pennies. Now, the biggest thing that unfolded yesterday is the following. This is the a chart here that I showed the Dow priced in major currencies. And we talked about this earlier in the week or maybe it was last week that we spoke about this. After I did a segment with Tommy. Um But here when we take a look at the Dow priced in Canadian dollars yesterday, it made a new all-time high. And I've shared with you the study that I've done. That study shows that when the Dow tops, it does not do so in foreign currency first. Now, that study included the Euros, Yen, uh uh Great British Pound, the Chinese Yuan. I think those were the currencies that the I used. I did not use the Canadian loonie out there. But, the Canadian I I doubt that it's any different. So, the Canadian loonie made a new all-time high yesterday. What that says is that the high for the Dow was not in. So, all those that think that the Dow has made a major bear market high out there, the Canadian loonie says otherwise out there. New York Stock Exchange advance decline oscillator remains remains below zero. We've been below zero for over a week. This is leading in us to the sideways choppy conditions that we have. The reason being because we have a spot VIX that is still below its 50-day exponential moving average. The 50-day is at 1607. We're We're trading right now at 1419. Um So, that's the most important thing that unfolded yesterday that you certainly needed to know about. What else do you want to take a look at? You know what's important to me today is going to be where the weekly cash indices close. Do they all close below their green oscillator change lines? If they do, then on a weekly basis, price will have lost its momentum as we are entering that unfair pool seasonal cycle of September. All right. So, we're looking for clues out here. We got a clue yesterday that says that the all-time high is not done inside the Dow. That doesn't mean that we go up there next week or anything like that. It just means that don't expect any kind of bear market or 20%. Now, that's confirmed by the QQEW out there. That's the study that I did that showed when the QQ that if the QQEW makes a new all-time high, the Nasdaq has not topped out. And the QQEW in fact did that. So, what I'm watching for here are the oscillator change. I'm going to put this table I wanted How can I help each of you out there? Take a snapshot of this screen. You want a snapshot of the screen. And what I've got here, you're really looking at the weekly oscillator change lines. As you can see that right now everything is below the oscillator and lines. I take that back. The New York Stock Exchange just a flip back above the top of its oscillator and change line out there. Gosh, we can't really trade the New York Stock Exchange. So, that's what I'm watching. Those are the levels that I'm watching out here. If we close below it, it's an indication to expect that the market is likely going to go ahead and move lower or at least sideways out there. So, that's the first thing to take a look at. I'm going to go ahead and close this set of charts here. You should have gotten that snapshot. And now what we're going to go do is take a look at the intraday charts. I think the intraday charts most important for those of you that are listening today to get a gauge as to where the market is headed to. So, as soon as that closes down momentarily, we'll get this blank screen to get populated and it's going to be the intraday information. So, we're going to have the NQ up on our screen first. So, with regard to the NQ, we've got a number of different intraday topping patterns. The one that I'm most concerned with is the 5-hour TD 9 count top. Now, what we can see here is that the oscillator and change line just changed from red to green. It increased the odds of price is going to make a move back to that level. That level right now is 29,396. So, I'm expecting that the market will continue to move lower. Whether it gets down to that level during today's trading session or we see that on Sunday, that I don't know. What I do know is that if price does get back and test and rejects that green oscillator and change line, whatever that number is when the price gets to that area. Right now, I'm just giving you the number that is printing out, but that changes. But if we get a test and rejection of that, that's actually a buy point on a 5-hour time frame. That could then be setting up an A to B equals CD pattern to the upside. What happens if we close below that? Well, then that hasn't set up a buy point. It says that price is likely to go target at least the top of its profile, maybe the center, maybe the bottom. 29,313, 29,184 would be the likely logical targets. Another area to watch on the NQ is the 60-minute time frame. It has a TD 9 count Roseman indicator top. Price has pulled back and it's been testing it for the last 4 hours out here. It's TD 9 count breakout level and that's at 29 516. Now, Obi-Wan would say, "Hey, you can't bust them to the downside. It's going to try to bust them to the upside." I agree with that. If you look at the 30-minute time frame chart, its Roseman indicator top has brought price back to its breakout level, 29 495 out there. Watch those areas. If price closes below those levels, then we're likely to see that 5-hour move get back towards its oscillator and change line. That's at the 29 397 mark. I'll throw up the ES mini charts, but quite frankly, I believe that it is the NQ charts that are the ones that are driving the bust today. They're the ones that have had the best Shoot, the best signals out there, uh topping signals that is, topping patterns out there. But, I'm going to go ahead and throw the ES mini charts. Want to see if there's any other kind of pieces of information, morsels here that I can provide to you. Uh so, let's go ahead get this thing populated on a 10-minute time frame chart. I don't see anything uh just yet that shows that it's uh any kind of a bottom signal. Uh we're trading below support levels. Come on, populate already. Would you please populate? Please populate. Um okay. So, now we got the 5-hour that does not have a TD 9 count top, but the price has pulled back to its oscillator and change line. Um because we don't have an official top, so to speak, not the same meaning as the NQs. But, still watch this. So, the ES mini is right now back at a key level of support. In fact, there is no other level of support. If we start trading below this area, this is 77 7715. We start trading below that, we are likely to head lower out there. And head lower to where? Probably head lower until the 30-minute time frame chart forms a TD 9 count bottom. We're in bar number seven right now. I'm not saying that it's going to, I'm saying that if we did start cracking and we continue to move lower, that's a likely outcome out there. So, that's what's going on from an intraday basis. Uh with regard to daily equity future contracts out here, let me uh put those up on our screen and before we before we depart here, you've got again, you've got the Russell 2000 that's got a Gartley buy pattern it should rally up towards 2994. You've got the TD 9 count bottom in the Dow equity future contract consolidating between profiles 53063 to 53862. The NQ remains above the top of its above the bottom of its profile on the screen also in change line telling us it wants to rally towards 29792 and the ES mini still has that small A to B equal CD pattern to the downside it would be negated with a close above with a tick above not a close above which is simply a tick above the high from August the 28th and that's at the 778250 level out there. So folks that's the best that I can do for you on fabulous Friday. I hope you have a wonderful weekend, a fabulous day and I'll look forward to seeing you on the terrific Tuesday. Take care. Have a have a wonderful and safe Labor Day weekend. >> [music] [music]