Video summary
The market update for September 3rd describes a disappointing trading session where major indices struggled to maintain momentum, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down significantly at 52,757 and the S&P 500 falling by 54 points to settle at 7631. Despite the overall negative sentiment, the analysis highlights that nothing catastrophic occurred immediately after the market open, as indicated by a doji candle pattern where prices opened and closed near each other. However, the focus is on the emerging bearish signals within specific sectors; for instance, while the weekly charts remain strong, the daily chart has entered a sell mode, and the QQQ index is trading down with its 9-period moving average flipping negative, suggesting that selling pressure is beginning to build up without yet triggering a full-scale crash.
Sector performance varied but generally leaned towards weakness, with the semiconductor sector (SMH) holding slightly better than expected despite being down, though its chart pattern is not considered ideal as the weekly chart starts to show signs of weakening. Gold also faced significant challenges, dropping sharply by 110 points to 4370, which placed it below both its 200-period moving average and its starting point for the period. This decline indicates substantial resistance ahead for gold on the upside, making a recovery difficult in the near term. The most critical area of concern identified is crude oil, which appears to be forming a 'leg D' pattern that suggests prices could break through the previous high set in June, a move that analysts are watching closely as it could signal further downward pressure across energy markets.
Volatility metrics provide another layer of caution for investors, with the VIX index rallying to 16.32 but still needing to stay below the critical threshold of 18 to avoid triggering a major market problem. The speaker emphasizes that until the VIX exceeds this level, there is still some room for stability, but any breach above 18 would indicate severe trouble ahead. The overarching conclusion for the day is that while the market has not yet collapsed, the combination of weak daily patterns in key indices, declining precious metals, and potential breakthroughs in oil prices suggests that selling pressure is intensifying. Investors are advised to watch for a sharp bounce in the coming session to save the day, as another significant drop tomorrow with a close 400 points lower would confirm that the bearish trend has truly begun.
Read the full video transcript
Educating investors.
This is TFN,
the Tiger Financial News Network.
[music]
TFN
headline news update.
Good afternoon everyone. Basil Chapman.
This is the 4:00 market close update.
We're looking on this first day of
September just a lousy day,418
at 52,757.
So really important in this H pattern
that is within two bars has got to be a
really sharp bounce above to be able to
save the day because if there's a sharp
move down tomorrow in the Dow uh with a
with a close another 400 points down
that's going to indicate that the
selling pressure is just really
beginning. So we want to see some
alleviation of that. Look at the S&P.
S&P right now, S&P. There we go. The S&P
is down uh 54. Um and you can see by
this plus sign, that's the dogee candle
where we open and close at about the
same price. So overall, nothing actually
happened after the opening today, but
actually a lot happened if you look at
different stocks. D's the S&P is down 54
at 7631. It's in this down channel.
Nothing too serious just yet. Although
in Champ Poland, it is in a sell mode on
the daily. The weekly charts are all
still very good. The um QQQ index 100
trading down 914
uh at 707.62.
So this has the 9pm moving average just
flipping negative, but it didn't take
out the low of a week ago and that's
really important. So there's a little
bit of strength there. And I think it's
also in the SMH, the semiconductors,
which held a little bit better even
though they were down. It's not great
and not a great chart pattern. Not as
bad as I would have thought, but it's
still not that great. Weekly chart is
starting to weaken now. Looking at gold.
Gold was down pretty sharply.
[clears throat] Down 110 at 4370 below
the 200 per moving average and below the
starting point. They took it to D. And
that just says it's going to be very
difficult. A lot of resistance now on
the upside for gold. We're looking at
crude oil. That's the really that's the
thing that I was talking about both in
my show, the target technicians hour at
10:00 in the morning and earlier today.
Um, this is a leg D in the crude oil. It
says to me that this leg should go
straight through the high of crude oil
which was at 92.74
on the 23rd of June in this of June.
Yeah. No, July and it should saw right
through and that's going to be an issue.
So, we're watching that very closely. If
you're looking at the VIX index, the VIX
index rallied some, but until VIX, which
is at 16.32, goes over 18, um, that
that'll help the market, but when it
goes over 18, that's going to be a big
problem. Have a wonderful evening. Basel
Chapman signing off and we will see you
tomorrow. Tommy kicks us off with the
market kickoff at 9:00 tomorrow