September 3rd, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

Welcome back folks. We have markets in the green S&P's up by 83 NASDAQ 100 up by 347 and how about the VIX 1438 to talk about some of the market action folks. We're going to jump over to our man Tim Ord. You can reach Tim at his website ord-oracle.com author of the Ord Oracle. We talked to Tim every Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time and don't forget folks if you head on over to tfnn.com he's got two great webinars the secret science of market tops and how to identify market tops as well as six secret ratios every trader should know. Uh they're both $149. You get them right on your account page folks. You watch them as many times you'd like and yeah the VIX ratio. Uh the VIX I should say in some of those ratios and even as I talk it's now it's 1436. Tim Ord good afternoon. >> Yeah, good afternoon. Um This is the daily SPY goes back I don't [clears throat] know to April. Um anyhow, we had a sign strength which is the SOS through the previous highs of June and July and we kind of broke those highs came back to it. We had we formed a gap on August 4th and that gap came in at 6.9 million shares and you test that gap yesterday on like 41 million shares was basically 40 40% less. If you test the gap on 10% lighter volume uh or more more lighter volume I guess the stronger the signal. So that 40% lighter volume on the test of that August 4th uh August 4th gap uh was a pretty strong signal. I thought we still might flip sideways here but we're actually starting to rally. Volume's not an ideal but we're staying long. It did find support where it's supposed to. Uh we did rally off of it. Uh I'd see more of what but we're going to end the three-day weekend here. so it is what it is. But, yeah, the VIX last This is a couple hours ago, and the VIX there are 14.59. Anything below 17 is bullish. Uh so, we're not seeing anything yet of of a time >> above 17 in the VIX ever again, Tim. No, I kid. I kid. But, it's quite a number right now. It is It is. It's quite a number when you look at just uh constantly, really. We've had our flare-ups, but boy, you know, quite a number. No fear, and that's going into a non-farm payrolls tomorrow, which, you know, no one's No one's worried. And I don't blame them in this market the way it's working. Yeah. >> Yeah, I'm I'm surprised, you know, with the especially going into elections and the market's remaining strong, you know, basically, you know, knocking on the doors of highs here. So, um here here's a weekly chart. Uh kind of it's a little bit bigger picture, but this is kind of a I I kind of developed this method over the years and kind of tweaked it here and there. But, anyhow, uh the bottom window is the uh weekly uh SPX VIX ratio. The next window higher is the weekly SPX. And I just put a Bollinger Band on it. And a lot of times, the SPX VIX ratio leads the SPX. In other words, that the VIX or the SPX VIX ratio will start to go down before the SPX will go down. And anyhow, um it's not all the case, but here the SPX will >> Sorry to jump in. That could be the VIX spiking ahead of any pullback in the S&P sometimes, right? Is that how that sometimes or does it play out the other way, too? Cuz I look to look at it, and sometimes that you get the VIX spiking, and then that that'll impact those ratios, right? >> Yeah, it'll it'll right, cuz yeah, if VIX goes up, then the SPX VIX ratio will go down. And sometimes, you know, you get your warning sign. The reason I put this uh Where's my Lost my little Oh, there it is. But, anyhow, um here, if you notice the S P 6 ratio is below mid Bollinger band and the market kept going up. So you don't get a signal until both of them are below the Bollinger band, which is basically happened there and that's when the pink area is. But right now we got both of them above their mid Bollinger bands and so at the moment there's not even a warning sign. So that could change quickly, but there's far as I'm concerned we don't see anything yet. I want to see this rally actually show some strength here. Here's a kind of a a pre-warning that this top window is just the RSI 14. And usually momentum to the upside starts to peak out before the top actually gets there. And I listed the times when the VIX didn't get above a 60, which is basically right here. That's that That's that line right there. If it fails to get above 60, that's usually a warning sign and that's all these areas here. So upside momentum just starts to go lackluster. And so this next rally, the last rally we had breaking above the previous highs of June July, we got an RSI 67 and all a decent above 60. So this rally here is very important. It has to continue. It has to push this RSI preferably up around 70 or even higher. So right now there's no problem, so we'll see how this rally goes. But there's kind of warning signs here I'm starting to see. I always talk about panic is good for the market. And the bottom window is a arms index. It's a 21-day average of the trend or arms index. And I mark the times when it's below this area here, shaded gray area I guess you might say. Are times when the 21-day arms is below one below one. We have that actually right now coming in 0.94. It's kind of a leading indicator cuz you know, this this started to get below one back in October and it stayed up you know, stayed up until February. So, this one Uh so, it's a leading indicator. This one kind of marked the high pretty much. >> Yeah. >> Not a big deal, but it at least flipped sideways. We're in this area again. So, we may stay in this area all the way into the year end far as I know. But, it's just kind of a warning sign. Panic is good for the market. If you got panic, you got strength strength in a rally. If you don't have panic, then it's kind of a warning sign. So, that's something I'm watching. >> in those areas really how it struggles to accelerate higher once it gets in there. Maybe a little bit, maybe when you go back to that earlier one on the far left there. But, really once it gets there, it's it's the the the worst. Yeah. They Yeah. >> Yeah. You just getting started to get declines and Finally, it just yeah, it's >> And then you give it up. Yeah. >> Yeah, kind of same here, you know, kind of and kind of just went sideways and down. So, we'll see how that turns out. Right now, you know, this is this may be months away before anything. And here's another indicator I'm watching, which is this lag breadth thrust indicator. Um ZBT, I guess. We did get down to like 40. We're at 48, I think, right now. It's kind of hard to read that number. Um but anyhow, we did hit 40, close enough. And I like to see a sign of strength out of this area we're in. Get it up to around 60. If we do that, that would bode well for the near mid term. If we don't get that, we may not. Uh it doesn't give you any information to to deal with. So, that's an indicator I'm watching. It It doesn't say anything right now. So, um You know, right now I'm long. I'm staying long. I don't see a problem. Um Usually, September's not a good Well, you know, so far it is. So, I'm staying long for right now. We'll talk about the gold market. >> It's so >> Perfect. >> Yeah, I was just going to say, Tim, this market seems to defy everything, right? As in like no matter what it is facing. And yeah, we come back from the summer. We got politics, as you mentioned. >> Yeah. >> And we got yields at some lofty levels. Market just shakes it off, man. Pretty remarkable. We're coming back, folks. Speaking of remarkable, we got gold up more than $100 on the session. We're coming back talking metals with Tim. Bear back, folks. >> [music] >> Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps up by 81 right now. And yeah, we got some action in currencies. And we got some action in gold up $111. We're talking with our man, Tim Or. Don't forget, folks, you can reach Tim at his website, ord-oracle.com. You see him right there. And as we were just talking about, you want to learn about these ratios, folks. This is a great webinar. Head on over to tfn.com. Hit that services tab. And yeah, you can be watching that right after the program, right when you sign up. All right, Tim. Quite a day in metals. We got a little volatility, but please, let's get into it. Yeah, I can't see the bottom window, but the bottom window is uh the 18-day average of the up-down volume. Uh no, actually uh this one is. Okay, the bottom window is ratio I know. Yeah, this is the 18-day average of the up-down volume. Now, I got an 18-day average. I got a 50-day average. I got a 62-day average. And I think I got a 79-day average. So, the longer the average is, you know, the slower the moving average. So, this is the shortest one that I pay attention to. And this one I I marked all the times when this 18-day average of the up-down volume got to 40. And it got to 40 I don't know several days ago. It's not designed to catch out the bottom, but it's designed uh to mark a sign of strength. and that's what I'm looking for is off of bottoms. You have to have a sign of strength, and this is one way to do it. So, I'm looking at a uh up down volume, not advanced decline, but up down volume cuz for some reason up down volume works better than advanced decline on this indicator. And we did get the plus 40, so that says the bottom's in. And now we're starting an impulse wave to the upside. And these are previous ones. The previous ones uh for some reason this one didn't work. Uh but anyhow, there was an 83% chance if you go back in history uh that impulse wave has started. So, if you're a betting man, you want to bet long. And the previous times of this when this thing was triggered, in other words, when this indicator got the plus 40 or more, uh the rally lasted 4 to 6 months. That's reason I put that there. So, uh uh so we're we're starting a rally. You know, how long is this going to last? Well, this is another indicator. This is the um up down volume again, and this is a 50-day average. So, we just had a 18-day average, which is a little over 3 weeks. The 50-day average is over 2 months. So, this one measures the bigger trend. So, once this if if this gets triggered, to get this triggered, the market in general would have to keep rallying to push this indicator higher. So, right now we're coming in about 10. Uh 9.92. So, it needs to get up to 20 uh for this to trigger. It has to come off of a bottom. So, all these ones came off of a bottom, but the ones were triggered uh it's wasn't a lot of them cuz this indicator here back further, but this indicator goes back to 2019. So, we had three in a what, 7 years, 6 years, 7 years? And the ones that did get triggered, you know, this one went for a year, uh this one went for 8 months. Last one we had was triggered back in April 2025. It lasted a year and we haven't triggered this one yet, but if we get to trigger if we get to plus 20 and then the words this rally keeps going which I think is a good chance it will. This market's going to rally until September of next year and starting to see that date come up quite different different methods, but we haven't hit it yet. But we still have an impulse wave going and with this this thing's not done yet to the upside. Here's another momentum indicator. It's a little bit different. This is kind of the same indicator, but I use cumulative instead of advanced decline and in a nutshell this indicator will stay above the mid Bollinger band which is a green area when it is you got an uptrend when it's down below the Bollinger band you got a downtrend. So we flipped up to a first part of August and catch the low, but it's not designed to is that's a nice indicator. Catch the Yes, catch the trend. So we're in an uptrending market right now. The decline's done. We started at we did have an impulse wave started off of again this indicator which suggests we last until possibly next March and momentum so we'll watch this how this goes, but here's another indicator that says we're going to Uh, let's see. Yeah, okay. This is the top window is GDX. Next window down is a GDX GLD ratio just on a daily basis. This indicator kind of leads GDX. If you notice back here this indicator started going down making lower highs while the S&P's or GDX was making higher highs. That warned of that pullback. The last was we had a positive divergence where this indicator was making a lower or higher lows where GDX was making lower lows. Now we got the indicator making higher highs in other words we broke above the previous highs of March, suggesting at some point we're going to at least go back and test the March high, if not keep going. So, this indicator is bullish. So, as long as uh uh so, we got we'll go momentum, we got a divergence on GDXJ ratio, positive divergence, suggesting we're going to break new highs. You can kind of see it better I even on a short-term basis here, this little area right here is this area right here. So, yeah. Uh and we're almost breaking new highs even on a short-term basis here, not quite, but we're almost touching previous highs. Uh so, this rally looks like it's going to keep going. So, there's no divergence I can see here, but here's here's the we get to the the big show, I guess you might say. Here's that same same indicator, but we're doing on a a monthly time frame. And we we keep showing this chart cuz I think it's very important what's going on on the bigger time frame, and it appears we're breaking out of this 13-year uh sideways trading range of GDXJ ratio, and it's just kind of the same thing. Here's divergence, this indicator is going down while the market was going up, picked out that high. Uh market was picked out the 2011 high cuz this indicator went through the floor, and now we're breaking new highs, and this indicator haven't even broke new highs, suggesting at least get back to the old highs. And I think if this sideways trading range uh is a breakout the only the up upside next resistance is 0.4, and I keep pointing out that's 2011 high. I think that's where we're going to go. So, I I think this fireworks to the upside, even though we had a decent uh pullback here. The pullback's done. Next impulse wave has started. We are going to hit new highs, and we actually could double from here. If this indicator goes to 0.4, if you work out the math, that means GDX would have to go to 200. And that's without That's without gold moving at all. But gold's going to even move higher. So, I don't know. Geez, GDX could go 250 or something. I don't know. It's hard to say. >> Tim? That to jump in, the GDX is up 4% and the GLD is up 2% as in double it, right? >> Yeah. >> And that's you know, the equities, same deal, man. And they just keep doing it. So, I agree. And that's the I mean, even today, you got the equities folks up double what the metal is. And that's kind of what you're talking about, right? They're leading the way for >> Yeah, the top. Yeah, this ratio uh this if if the ratio is going down, uh you can actually see it here from the 2011. In general, that ratio went down until 2010. And so did uh the GDX. Uh the ratio kind of went sideways, market kind of went sideways, and now we're just starting to break out to the upside. So, this GDX GLD ratio leads GDX. As long as that ratio is going up, GDX will keep will continue higher. Cuz in bull markets, gold stocks outperform gold. And that's what's happening now. That's what that ratio says. >> Yeah, that's The GDX is about to finish at like the tick high, Tim, up 4% as this is rocking. So, pretty cool. Tim, thanks for the breakdown, man. Appreciate it as always. Have a great long weekend. We look forward to talking to you on Tuesday. >> All right. Talk to you then. Thanks a lot. >> Talk to you then. Folks, check it out. Those great webinars on the front page of TFN under the services tab and Ord-Oracle. And yeah, GDX making a run for the closing bell. We'll come back