September 22nd, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

Hi everyone, Basel Chapman sitting here for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show and in this segment we're going to have Tim OD and most importantly let me just say Tim or is from Oracle. Uh let me just see if Tim is here. Hi Tim, are you there? >> Yeah, I sure am. And uh I can give you my website. Uh ww uh it's ww.orgenoracle.com o rdenoracle.com and my email address is tim orordheorleacle.com and also have a Twitter uh feed which is OOracle. So that's how you get a hold of me. Um so I'll answer emails and subscribe. So let's take a look at the market. >> Just as you're about to start them, I had a question. So I don't want you I don't want to interrupt anything that you're about to say. I just if you can include it in your thinking and the question was if I can find it here. Please ask Tim or the GDXJ should out should it will it outperform the GDX during uh his GDX uh possible uh double top prediction here. So anytime you can uh include that that's that was the question. >> All right. Uh whether GDXJ will outperform GDX. Yes, >> that's what the question is. >> Yep. That's the question. But including just as you're going along, you don't have to stop for that. >> All right. Uh we'll start with the S&Ps and we'll answer that question when we hit uh GDX. But anyhow, here's the um this is daily SPY. Uh the bottom window is the VIX, not the S&P VIX ratio, but just the VIX. And you can see it's almost hitting a new low here. And we're almost touching a new high. We haven't obviously this this high right here. Uh we haven't quite touched it yet, but we're we do have a sign of strength off this low. You see a big jump in volume here. Kind of the same thing we had back in uh late July, early August. You had a sign of strength through the previous highs. Uh the market uh went back and tested the previous highs which should be support. And normally when support is hit, you usually get pan and ticks and trend. That's exactly the day of the low. That's what we had. We had a trend close at 1.71 and we had a tick of 784. That's a bullish signal. Uh then right from there we got a sign strength to the upside. So on a daily time frame looks good. The weeklies uh the top window is the weekly S&P. Uh the bottom window is a VIX. Um anything below minus7 usually that's happens in a trending market. Next higher window is the SPIX VIX ratio. I kind of developed a a trend following method using a weekly S&P. Now, when the the green area here is when both these indicators, the S&P VIX ratio weekly and the S&P uh weekly are above the mid Ballinger band. And that means everything's clear. We have an uptrend. When it's in yellow, like here, uh the S&P weekly is above the mid Ballinger band, but the S&P VIX ratio is below the mid Ballinger band. Sometimes they can lead to tops. This one did not. Uh apparently the VIX came back up and closed above the mid Ballinger band while the S&P was above mid Ballinger band. So the trend continued, you know, looks like a couple of months more. went yellow again in basically January, February. Uh that's when the S&P fell below the mid- ballinger band again. And finally right there uh is a sell signal uh where the S&P fell below the mid Ballinger band and now we're still above it. Uh on a midterm scale, the weeklys uh are above the mid Ballinger band uh and the uh S&P fix is above mid Ballinger band. So weekly time frame looks good on this next on this uh recent rally off the lows. This is the Zwag breast thrust indicator and the bottom window uh is the uh is it this window down here uh the Zwag breast thrust indicator is advanced decline or is actually advancing issue over total issues with a 10day moving average and it has to go from 04 to 6 in 10 days or less. We did hit 04 um September 17th I think it was. I have to go back and look but just recently it did hit below 04. So now uh has to rally I think to um September 29th I think is the date for 10 days and we like to see the wagon breast stress indicator get to 6 around September 29th or before and if we do that would be an all clear signal for immally to begin and all these blue area or all these pink areas are times when the zag breast thrust indicator was triggered the ZBT there's one failure here. It came at a high. Uh but it usually comes off low as you get it triggered. So we're seeing if this one gets triggered or not. It may or it may not. Um if if ideally we like to see the current rally continue and if it does, this thing most likely will be triggered. Uh that's one indicator I'm kind of looking for for an imminent term type bullish market to continue. Uh another one is the uh momentum. Momentum is really important. Normally momentum in the market peters out at the top. So the rally just doesn't have ump to keep going and and the RSI kind of measures momentum. So these these areas here are times when the RSI failed around the plus 60 level and the top window is a 14 period RSI when I made this chart is right smack at 60 59.28. And so for this, so if we stall in this area right now and the market doesn't really make any highs or you know it fails to continue not to rally from here, then this could this indicator could get triggered. That's momentum to the upside is is uh uh lagging, I guess you might say. >> That would become a sell signal if it was triggered. >> Yeah. If if it fails, it fails right around right on this area. We're right right around 60 right now. The last high came in at 67. Uh it managed to push higher. Uh but a lot of times the failures come around plus 60. So if a market quits rallying right from here, the RSI will not go much higher than where it is right now because to get the RSI above 60, you know, preferably up around 70 or even higher, the market has to rally. Uh so if it does rally then from here then that would be a a bearish sign but right now it's too soon to say. Uh we just you know we had a big shot of strength off the low. Um we're on RSI plus 60 at least we're here. The market would have to continue to rally to push it higher. Get around plus 70. Normally that's an all clear signal that the market is back in a bull phase. So, we'll see how that happens. Um, you know, over the next several days, you know, if we uh we don't rally from here, that would be kind of a bearish sign. So, we'll have to wait and see. But momentum wise, we're okay, but the market needs to keep going for if cells are going to develop absurd coming up with the S&P for this particular segment. Folks, we're going to be I'm sure you're on your on the edge of your seat waiting for the next segment because we're going to talk about gold. Correct. >> Yep. And we'll be back in a moment folks. This is the Dow is now down only 65 SP up 1200 champions sitting here with Tommy O'Brien with Tim Odd. We'll be right back with a from Oracle. A fabulous discussion we just had very detailed explanation, what's working, what be looking for. And uh Tim, you want to go to the GDX now? >> Yeah. Yeah, we'll go to the GDX. Uh the this is the um premium discount for the Sprout physical gold trust. Uh so you buy this gold trust right now. Uh so it's a physical gold trust. So they actually give you gold and they store it for you. But any uh I went back, this chart goes back to um late 2000. Looks like about 2020. So it's got five six years or six years or better in it. and I mark the times uh when this ratio when the uh discount is 0.2 minus 2.25 in other words you're buying physical gold at a discount of 2.25 or lower um the GDX is is this window down here and this is a premium discount ratio here and if you go back in history every time you bought it when the discount was below 2.25 25 the market was at a low and that's what all these red lines this blue area here when it stayed below 0.25 and that was a major low 2023 that was the impulse started the major impulse wave up because that was the major low. Well, we've been below 0.25 which is basically this line right here uh for uh quite a while. Even though the market kind of wiggled down, uh it still stayed below 0.25. The last nice reading is updates on the close is 2.39. Still in a buy area. So according to this chart, we did pop up above uh 2.25 here. I know a few days ago for about a week or two, then it fell back down. So probably we're ending the consolidation right now. Uh and so we're we're still in the buy area as of yesterday's close. So Can I just Can I just clarify this is Am I correct? This is the PH YS, right? Is the symbol. >> Uh, yeah. P H Y. There it is right there. It's up in here. PH Y S P R E M physical premium I think is what it's called, which is the Sprout Physical Gold Trust uh premium discount. That's how to get this discount. >> Good. >> So, >> okay. Good. No, that's good because we actually own the PHYS which is SPR physical gold units has pretty much the same chart and yeah so could you continue? I just want to check the on the symbol. Thank you. Thank you. >> All right. Uh here's the uh GDX monthly chart. So anyhow the monthly charts rule the weekly charts weekly charts rule the daily charts daily chart work you know rule the day the hourly and so on down the line. So you you want to look at the monthly charts first. make sure you're on the right side of the market on a longer term basis. And this is just a real simple chart. I I'm a big volume steady guy and it works really well. And anyhow, back in March of this year, you had a decline off of a high and you had a big uh big shot up in volume. Then nearly normally high volume lows are always tested and we did test that in June. But if you notice we close below that high of March. So when you break below a previous low and close below a previous low and lighter volume, it implies a false breakout to the downside. At some point when you close above that March low, it'll give a buy signal. Well, even July you went down to lower lows, but look what the volume did. So now you broke the June low on much lighter volume. So a close above the June low will create the buy signal. Well, you actually did get the buy signal back in the 80 area. I didn't get the exact bottom. I did pretty good, but so anyhow, so you test previous low. Now you have to have a sign of strength and actually this low here closed below the uh June or closed above the June low triggering a buy signal. So the close of the month of July closing above the June low gave you the buy signal which is right around 75 somewhere in that I was actually a little bit higher on on my trading but anyhow after that you have to have a sign of strength off that low and a sign of strength should be equal if not higher than the previous down. Well the previous down was this day and if you notice the volume was basically about equal. So that's a sign of strength. So that was a confirmed breakout and reversal to the upside. You have to have a sign of strength off that low. Now we're doing something right in here. But this is just a mild consolidation. I don't think this is no top of any consequence. But we did the the July low was a major low. We had a sign strength off that low. And now the next impulse wave to the upside has already started. Will it last two years or longer? Possibly. I don't know. But, uh, on the bigger time frames, here's what's going on. Let me get to this chart. I keep showing this chart, but the the bottom one is the monthly GDXG ratio. And this chart goes back to 2005. And if you notice at tops, this ratio falls where the S&Ps or GDX rather still makes higher highs. divergence. Um, we're not h we're actually having the opposite here. If you notice, we're breaking out of a 13 year trading range uh give or take. It looks like a 2 to 0.1 and we're breaking out of this trading range right here right now. And we're already making higher highs on this ratio where GDX has not made a higher high. That implies the GDX yearly ratio leads GDX. So, it's already making higher highs. That suggests GDX also make higher highs. >> That's a very nice indicator. Very good. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, uh so we're we're going to at least go back up to the previous highs which is up around 117. Not sure what will happen there. We have to wait and see. You know, we could build a consolidation before we move higher. Don't know. But as this market matures, the seniors take off first. They lead the market uh to higher highs and the juniors do respond but not as strongly as a as a market matures. Then GDXJ should start to outperform GDX. And I think that's what's happening next on this current rally. Actually, I did for my own portfolio, I probably added probably about 15 or better uh junior gold stocks. So, I'm talking penny stocks, the ones are under a dollar, and those are those ones are starting to outperform the bigger ones right now. So, what comes next? Uh, GDX will go up tremendously cuz I think will double over the next year, but GDXJ I bet will do better percentage-wise in GDX. And to prove that point, you can actually do a ratio. You can do GDX to GDXJ. When that ratio is rising, that's just GDX is outperforming GDXJ. If it's declining, then GDXJ is outperforming GDX. >> And if you go forward, I bet uh that that ratio will decline. Uh both will go up, but GDXJ in my opinion will go up much faster. So to answer the guy's question, the place to be uh is in gold stocks, but especially uh in my opinion, junior gold stocks should outperform GDX. But both of them are do tremendously well cuz this is still this is this rally I think that has started back in 2024 has another 10 years to go. This is probably going to be similar to 2000 uh 2000 where gold stocks did very well and the S&Ps did not. Oh, that is fabulous information, Tim. That's just a wealth of information. I love this G the GDXJ on a percentage basis today is is better than the GDX. Very good. >> Thank you very much. So, uh we will see you again on Thursday, folks. This is Tim Ward. Go check out Tim Oracle. Yeah, TFN. He's done some fabulous webinars. Check them out. Thank you so much, Tim. We'll see you soon. >> All right. Talk to you then. Thanks.