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September 21st Trade What You See with Larry Pesavento on TFNN - 2026

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In this market analysis, Larry Pesavento highlights a divergence between major indices and smaller caps, noting that while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones made new highs alongside Apple, the Russell 2000 failed to rally and stalled near the 618 Fibonacci level. He maintains a strong bearish stance on Treasury bonds and notes despite recent rallies due to a lack of bullish structure, whereas gold recently generated a successful $50 profit following a perfect ABCD pattern. The commodities sector presented mixed signals with copper approaching new highs and crude oil hovering near a key 382 level after moving from August lows, while the corn market remained bullish on weekly charts despite missing previous peaks. In contrast, wheat saw little rally, but soybeans surged significantly due to weather news, though Larry identifies a major topping area for grains like soybeans, wheat, oil, and corn near the 61% Fibonacci retracement level and at 50% off their 2023 highs. Currency markets showed strength in the British pound, which is being held long based on a robust pattern relative to the dollar index, while specific equity names displayed varied performance. Tesla shares rose but did not establish new highs, Dell missed its previous peak, and Intel gapped up, whereas live cattle remained bullish with a large gap-up. Regarding Bitcoin, which rallied back toward $86,000 after declining from $126,000 before dropping to 84,000, Larry observes that it reclaimed the 38.2% retracement level by approximately 170 points; however, he explicitly states he does not trade the asset because risking 3% on something he knows nothing about is unacceptable. He emphasizes his reliance on specific Fibonacci numbers, particularly the 382 retracement level, and advises all viewers to always utilize stop-losses when trading. Looking ahead, Larry notes that El Niño conditions are heating up ocean currents, leading to anchovy die-offs that will tighten feed supplies, and warns that a potential early frost could further impact prices, potentially pushing soybeans toward $20. He informs his audience that he will be absent the following day for medical testing but plans to return with further analysis on Wednesday. The segment also includes promotional content for various TFN newsletters, including "Fibonacci 24/7" by Larry Pesavento, Rocket Equities and Options Report by Tommy O'Brien, Mastering Probability by Steve Rhodes, and the Tiger Zen Discord community, all of which offer a 30-day money-back guarantee. Ultimately, the discussion underscores the importance of technical patterns like ABCD structures and Fibonacci levels in navigating current market volatility while managing risk effectively across diverse asset classes.
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trading journey because when you know better, you invest better. Join us and experience the difference today. TFN, educating investors. The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] Trade what you see with Larry Pavvento. [music] Call now toll-free at 1877-9276648 or internationally at 727-8737618. [music] Now, Larry Pesventto. Okay, folks. We're going to take a look at the Russell 2000. If you want to see something that is incredibly weak, I posted this early this morning around 1:00 in the morning. I said, "Well, the strength coming in the S&P and the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq should get the Russell up to right here, folks. It can't even take out the high of last Thursday." I mean, that is really, really weak. Now, the Dow Jones is doing pretty much the same thing, but it's a lot stronger. As you can see here, we came down today. Uh, you can see it dropped 400 points coming down into And let's just do this on the hourly chart because it's real easy to see it, much easier because we had the Hold on. I think that's it. I want to show it to you several different ways. There's where we were last Friday. That said we should had an ABCD up to this level right here, which was the 382. But we didn't do that. We just didn't even take out the high of last week and then we had the break. All it did came right down, stopped right at the old magical number of exactly 618 here this morning. It's had a rally back 618 right now. Now, I hadn't checked the AI on this and then we'll bring that up and we'll see where we are. Well, this is what it was supposed to be doing. It's off by quite a bit. So, let's just see. Uh, well, you got the it's got the structure right. The timing is not that good. The timing was perfect in the NASDAQ in the Dow Jones. I'm just looking at this the first time. So, if I shift that over a little bit, that still doesn't help very much. So, I can't even use that. But, you can see all we're doing now is rallying back about to the 786. I No, just above the 618 actually. There it is. Right there. There. There's a there's where it is right now. But we're seeing really, really different uh markets here, folks. Now, another one that is really big. I mean, really, really, really big. And it's in the news all the time, and we've been talking about it for quite some time here. And that is, hold on one second. We'll get this out of the way. That is Mr. Bitcoin, folks. The 382 on this whole move from way back here in August when it was trading at 126,000 down to 58,000. that racket the rally back came to 84,000. We're trading, I believe, at 86 right now. Let's take a look at that. That's what it was a little bit earlier. Here it is right now. There it is at 86. It's trading at 86100. Let's go through some of these others because a lot of them don't look anywhere near as strong as as you might think. The New York Stock Exchange index is up slightly. The Jack the German DAX is up just very slightly. Uh let's see what we got here. Japanese market is up slightly. The uh Nifty50, it's actually up a little bit. I mean, I mean, a little bit. And here is the semiconductor, uh, it's up quite a bit. It's up about 4% today up into this level. I think this is completing a little bit of an ABCD. Uh, this thing's just moving around a little bit there. I think it's completing this little ABCD here. We'll see. But there's a big [clears throat] big divergence here on these things, folks. So, I think it's very very important that we pay close attention. We're almost making new highs in the S&P, folks. Uh that uh remember now those S&P of the 500, you're talking about 100 stocks cuz those are the ones that have all the money behind them. That's talking about Nvidia and even Apple. Apple today. Uh get this Apple to show you where Apple was making all time new highs today in Apple. Let's get this up here so we can see it real quickly. >> [snorts] >> Don't do stocks too much. I don't do stocks at all, but people ask me about it. And here is Oh, this thing is just drives me nuts. God, I hate this. I'm going to have to do something. See, we made a new high here in Apple, folks. You see, we had three higher highs right in here. Brand new high in Apple here at 338. That's uh if you'd have sold that right there, backed off a little bit, but this would be a losing trade right now of $5 because we would have sold [laughter] we would have sold it right here at 335 and be stopped out at uh at 338. That's a myth mythical trade cuz I really don't do those uh those types of trades. Okay, now let's move on here and talk about the treasury bonds. Treasury bonds and treasury notes are having a little bit of a rally here today. I'm extremely bearish these folks. We sold this 382 uh coming in this tonight. We had a $1,000 profit. We elected to stay with it because we [clears throat] think we're going to go lower. We sold it right here at 10728 and that's where our stop is. And that you can see the bottom we made right down here on the 15th. That led to a nice little 3-day rally. That 3-day rally went virtually nowhere. You think bonds are bullish, folks? Show me something about this chart that is bullish. I'd really like to know. Looking at this on the big picture, got a little bit of the ABCD that we talked about. That was right about there. But look what it's done. I mean, hasn't even Look at this on this day right here between the 18th. Look how much we rallied. Look, look where we are now. Okay, that means the three more days we're going to get up there. H possible. Boy, it sure looks bearish to me. But then again, I'm just looking at what I see uh as far as pictures on these charts. Uh that's pretty much what we're watching here. Okay, let's move on here for a little bit. I think we Oh, with the government. We had a beautiful trade in the gold today, folks. I posted this long before right up in here. This is where I post it. Well, I said long before this would happen. But if you look at this on the hourly chart, we had an absolute perfect da drum roll, please. There it is right there. There's your reaction back. Hold on just a second. And I posted it. When this was here, I said it's going to go to right to there. And all I said was sell it right there and risk about 10 bucks. And as you can see, we went to the 50% level. That was at 09. The high was at 14. And it dropped all the way down to give you a $50 profit if you had been watching it. And you can see here, there's your uh AB leg right here. There's your CD leg right there. You could have actually gone long down here in some area and uh traded it that way because if you look at this on a little bit longer time frame here, this is acting pretty bullish, folks. This the last 3 days anyway. It didn't go down very much from your low up to your high up into this area. Went below the 382 uh for just a little bit on this big wash out down. Uh that measured to 69 and the low was 60. And then of course we had the rally back. And the rally back really just verifies that hold on, let's just get this out. I I I trade numbers, folks, because after these guys on Wall Street, they're doing it all day long. So I figured I might as well do it. There's your high right here. There's your low word to go to again, the 382, and it's already backed off, you know, $89 from that level. So that's what we're paying attention to. Now, you see the top thing up right here? That's copper, folks. Copper almost made a brand new high today. I want the reason why I'm saying that we're having new highs and Bitcoin and a bunch of other stuff and it might mean that there's a big big pattern up in here somewhere. I don't know what it is. I don't know what it is astrologically. I can't figure that out, but I've been doing that for 60 years and I still can't figure it out. So, here's where we are. Oh, there it goes. Hiding again. Here's new highs coming in the copper. Let me get this out of the way. All right. Just going to have to deal with it the best I can. We almost made a new high today. We missed it by a little bit. We took out the high the previous day here at 84. Okay. And that's what we've done here so far. I thought new highs were coming and they still might be there, but we didn't quite get there as of yet. Now, we're going to take a little break. When we get back, we're going to go over some foreign currency and we're going to go over some [music] grains and oil seeds. 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Try any [music] of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just [music] visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, educating [music] investors. Okay, folks. We'll talk about crude oil here for a little bit. You can see from early August, we went from 72 to 102. That's a $30 move in crude oil. You can see now these last few days here, we've been backing off just a little bit. There was that pattern we were looking at. If you remember, we were in the U spot October at the time at 107. That completed this little butterfly pattern. I believe we were on the air when it was happening. And then of course the market breaks down, goes up. There's another ABCD just slightly above the 382 goes almost at 50%. And folks, pay attention, you know, if you like these numbers because going back to last August, look where we are almost here right now, folks. Here, that's at 9050. We're only a buck and a half away. I said, look at I Well, [clears throat] doesn't make any difference what I said. This is what I'm looking to think it's going to get to this level and maybe uh hold some support here. Um, we made new all-time highs in uh diesel fuel today, folks. That's a big deal for those people that drive diesels, especially truck type people. There's your ABCD coming in right about there. We'll draw it in so you can see a little bit of an idea of what we're watching here. There's your ABCD. And there it is. We're almost We is there right now. My golly, we sure are. Let's take a look at the AI just for kicks and giggles. Maybe. I haven't looked at it today, that's for sure. And the reason why is it's on X and we've got to switch it over to uh spot. And that only takes me just a second to do that. Well, it used to take a second. Now it takes about 45 seconds. So there it is. There's your 2 minute. And here's what our game plan looks like. It's hidden behind here, of course. Here it is. Here's crude oil. Let's get this up here like this. Oh, this is this is really frustrating. Okay, there's where we are. And there's what the AI was saying for well, you can see it's been it's been coming down uh for quite some time. So, it's uh not much help here with the AI today as you can see here. But you can see if you go to the hourly chart here, there's your ABCD. We are uh now it's missing data. On the other one, it isn't missing data. On this one, it is. Let's just hold on here a second and we'll try to get up to right about here. There's your ABCD. Now, this is the this is the original now. So, I just go to the hourly and you'll be able to see the ABCD. There it is coming here. You can see how close we are within just about uh 60 70 points of that total ABCD that we're looking at. That same one that we're watching right there. That number comes in right about there. That's going to be your 382 of that whole gamilla from way back here in August. That's something you should pay attention to because that's a 382 there. You're going to see how close we are to it right there. That's like 9050. So, it's about a buck away. I know it's a big wide ranging bar, but uh you got to pay attention to those 382s in these real strong markets. There's your 382 right here. And look what happened. So, it's very bearish right now, but one rocket away, you know, who knows where it could be. So, let's get this out of the way right here. And you'll be seeing that right there. Okay. Now folks, I will not be here tomorrow. Tomorrow's my test day. It was supposed to be Friday, but it's going to be tomorrow. They test me for uh you know, dis not dizziness, but uh your balance and your coordination and mental stuff and uh and that's just all part of the insurance program that I'm on. All right, let's get this out of the way here and move over and talk about some of the grains because I've been very bearish to grains. And let's see what they've been doing. Now you can see the wheat. Uh, add a boil. Larry, just get it like that. That should do it. Okay, now here's wheat. We've had virtually no rally here in the wheat today. It's uh did well, you can see it had a little bit of a pullback. Virtually no rally at all. Now, let's take a look at the one that's in the news because of El Nino. This El Nino is still still a big problem. That's the soybean market. There's soybean. I'm going to bring the AI up just to see how November beans are acting with it. Here they are. right here. All I got to do is get it out of the way. Right there. And there is the November beans. Wow. There algo today. Look at this. This is not U. Here's where the AI does it work all the time, folks. You guys already know that it works about 65. When it works, it's pretty good. So, let's since we've got this here, I got to get this off here so I can get the whole program here. Now, let's move on to the hourly chart. And you can see how much beans are rallying today. Remember, we thought this was going to be a really big high up here. So, so far it is. But look at today's action, folks. [snorts] We went from 3060. We rallied $1,000 here in this. You know, it was, you know, held pretty good down here at the 786. There was our low here earlier in the morning and then news came out that the weather was changing and boom, away it went. There was a little bit of a pullback and that's it. We're We don't have a position in this. We were just looking for the stock up in here. We had a nice breakdown. We had nothing going on in the grains at all. Just bring them to you one at a time. All right. So, those are the ones that I'm trying trying to pay attention to. So, let's switch over for just a second here. And we want to take a look at the corn market because corn was affected by all this stuff today. And here's Christmas corn. We'll bring this up on the hourly. Uh see if we've taken out the highs as of yet, but nope. But we're not very far away. Here's our corn move. Look how much corn how little corn has backed off, folks. Look at this. from the this is all of September. Look, this is in the middle of harvest. Hello, operator. Give me a break. You know, this thing Well, it's not in the middle of harvest, but harvesting's beginning. This is still acting incredibly bullish. Looking at this on the 4 hour, you know, we're up. We're right up at the highs. There's no no selloff here. All during the 3 weeks of September, nothing. Not a zippo. So, that's telling us it's acting pretty good, don't you think? And if we look at this on the long-term weekly, this is what I'm baking baking baking this on. Baking this on is these long-term weekly charts. See, the problem here's here's the problem with the data that I have, folks. You see where it says CZ6? That means December of 26. That doesn't cover everything. In order to cover everything, I have to go up here to corn. That gives me all of the data going back as far as I want. So, I'm going to go to the weekly chart and show you on the weekly chart. And there it's hidden behind here, just like it should be, of course. Wow. [snorts] All right. There's where we are right there. And you can see we're right at the 382 on the long-term weekly. And folks, this means something. Ah, golly. Gee, just a minute now. Hold your own horses here. We'll see what we got. Uh, it probably won't work. It is working. Okay, we're at the 382 of the high we made way back here. Now, folks, I want to show you something here that might have your interest. We have been here for 1 2 3 4 5 weeks up in this area and we haven't been able to pop through. So, it's still bearish in my opinion in the corn. And we looked at the same thing in beans. You would have seen the same thing in beans. Let's take a look at the soybean oil, which has been the bearish, most bearish of them all. get the daily up and then we'll look at the weekly to find hide it and see what soybean oil should be getting whacked pretty hard today because of the fact that the crude oil and because of the green energy and the soybean oil and you can see it's up a little bit. It just took out the previous day's high [gasps] there's your 135 pattern. We're still coming down here. There's nothing bullish here about this. Ah, there is something bullish possibly and that is let's clean this out right now. We've got an ABCD forming here. Have to pay close attention to this one here because there's your AB CD leg coming down here just a little bit lower. Looks exactly at the 786. And then you'll be able to see if that's going to hold it or not. All right. So, I think with the old bells and whistles are going to have a commercial and we'll be right back. 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ALPS Distributors Inc. [music] Okay, folks. Here's a a trade we were ready for, and that was sell at 115. High had been here 112. And as you can see here, it gapped up quite a bit. gapped up above that and went a little bit higher. Um, you know, that's the news, I guess. I don't trade stocks, but if you done that one, you would have been out. Your three-point loss would have been very, very quick, and you wouldn't had had any pain at all. And that's what pain's for. See, there's your sell would have been here 115 right there. There's your buy stop would have been right there. It'd be it'd be history. Now, we're really close to a major major ABCD pattern here, folks. I want to get this up here because I talked about it in the video. And there it is right now. There's a number we were looking at. I was looking here. There's my number. I sold it at at 78.25. But I'm early because if we look at this on the hourly chart, you're going to be able to see there our target is right there. It's right here at 78.40. That's the original target that we were looking at on Sunday night. That comes in at 7840. That means it's going to make a elgo new high. Almost. The old high was yes, it will make a new high at that point. You'll be taking out that high if we get there. And that's at 78.40. Okay. Now, I sold at 78.25 because I'm following the AI a little bit. But that's what I'm look at. There's that. There's where we were Friday night. I said there's no way you can be bearish that with that ABCD right at the 382. Shut the front door and raise your rent. That's the kind you wait for. But that's how they end. We'll find out if it's going to mean anything or not. So, we'll be watching it right here. Now, we've made a new high in the uh NASDAQ. We'll just get this up here one second here. I want to show it to you. We do the same thing with the NASDAQ. We'll put the hourly chart up and it should give us the same ABCD pattern that we're looking at. [snorts] And here's where we are. We'll see right here. D. Okay. Now, there's where we were the last few days. Okay. Here's the action. There's your 382 on Friday. That's very easy to see. There's your move right here. And your 382 misses it by about 60 uh points. Okay. Now, here's we come in Sunday night and it's been going straight up. 970. Are we up that much? Wow. That's 1,000 points. Oh yeah. 1,000 points from Friday night. We sure are. 970 to 36. No, it's up 700 points. Let's measure the ABCD here just for kicks and giggles if you want to do that. There's your A leg right here. There's your B leg. This is See where See, it comes in exactly at uh 33%. We wanted it to come in at 38. There it is right there. As you put it right there, we're above it. We're already above the target right here. Okay. So, the should have come in here at 30,600. So, it's up about 70 points higher than it would have been. And with this strength like this, you could say you can move this to the 127 level just to be safe, which is always a good thing to be. And uh there's where it is. And that woo, that would means we we're going to go up here another 200 points up into this area right here. But who knows? This is Well, I'm watching I don't trade the NASDAQ very often, folks. I mean, that maybe once a week, and that's when it's really quiet, which almost it never is. And but the S&P I trade almost all the time. And I saying the one I'm betting on was at 25 only because of that the number is 40. Between 25 and 40, it's 50 handles. I can handle a $750 loss. You do the micros. That's a 75 bucks or 75. It' be 100. Yeah. Be $75. So it wouldn't be too bad if you did the micro. But that's what we're watching. And I'm following this because it's done a pretty good job overall. got a little bit early sometimes, but this is what I'm watching here as I'm looking at it. Now, we're going to switch over to one other thing here, folks. So, let's look at the live cattle. And here, ah boy, [sighs] [gasps] [clears throat] there we go. As soon as I change the little red blue dot, I'm okay. And I hopefully I'm okay. Let's get that up. There's where we are in cattle today. Cattle gapped up today big time, folks. You can see here we gapped up about two points. We're now up five points from the bottom. six points for the close here last night. Okay, there was our big move down your ABCD. Let's see if it had anything special on the longer term. Looking at this on cattle, there was your ABCD pattern right here. And if you drew that in from your low to your high, you had to be coming in bullish here because you have an ABCD. That's where you closed on Friday, right at the 61% retracement. And what' you do today? You gap up. you grapped up from 16 to 19. 300 points and now you're Look at this. You're 600 points, folks. That's 24 $2,400 uh in the uh in the cattle. And they stayed here. Look, they stayed right at the 786 for almost 2 hours. And now we're starting to move. That's when it breaks out of those ranges. Golly, gee, you got to think it's going to be going higher. So, this looks pretty bullish along with uh everything else that's going on. All right, so that's the cattle market. Now, someone's asked a question about the sugar market cuz we had a big I had to bring it up, didn't I? Sugar and there's sugar SB. We used the October. Bring it up and see if it's done the right thing or not. All right, here's where we are. Okay, we should be at the moment of truth here in the Oh, dog it. Just give me one second here. I don't trade sugar at all, but here's where we are in the sugar. And you can see we're down quite a bit from that, but we're at a I believe we're at a very close 382 or it wouldn't have beeped off, I don't think. Yeah, there it is. There it is right there. We're looking sugar to get down to this level right here. We almost got there, but not quite yet. That's pretty close. There's uh yeah, within a day. There's Friday and there's today. Only misses it by [clears throat] a few cents, but we're only a few cents off of it. So, that still looks like it's normal to me. It's one of the reasons why I don't trade sugar because it looks normal. Okay, here's one that I really like and it's not working in the right direction right now, but it looks okay still. Here's the British pound and this has been incredibly good to us, folks. You we've done all we've done all these trades. We bought it here, sold it here, bought it here, sold it here, bought [snorts] it here, sold it there, and bought it here. That's where we bought it right now. Looking at this on the hourly chart, you're going to be able to see what we were doing here. There's where we were this morning. We had the big gap up. Hold on. There's our gap up this morning. We didn't have a position. I said you had to buy it on the 382 retracement. That 382 retracement came in right here. Right there. And there's we're trading a tiny bit below it right now. Let me change these. So the set the set the defaults correctly. There we go. And there's where we bought it right here. And that's where we are right now. Our stop was right about in here. That means if that fails, looks pretty bad. Now remember when we were doing this, I know I remembered, but let's take a look at the dollar index because that's the one that was easy one to see from my perspective. So there's the dollar index. And all I got to do now is hit the little blue thing on the dollar index, which is right there. And it'll pop up for us. And there it is right there. You see we had that big 382 here. Excuse me, the big 61% retracement. Okay. 8 days up here, 8 days up here. And so I said, "Looks like we want to be long the pound and long the uh euro." And I said, "Well, I picked the pound because the pound had a little stronger little stronger pattern." So that's what we're doing. All we're doing now is this is bouncing back just a little bit. We're not, you know, we're just going to wait and see here. Let's stay tuned [music] here. Stay tuned. >> [music] [music] >> Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, [music] it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire [music] market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening [music] call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most [music] trading influencers have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology [music] in order to accurately call movements in a wide range of equities from semiconductors to uranium to [music] key indices and so much more. 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And that's why I said it it'd be a great sale. Look what this is. The Dow Jones up 500 points. This thing isn't up 10 points on the day. Not even 10. Well, it's stepped up 10 points. I mean, that's ridiculous how weak it is. Now, history's going to say if the S&P's topping here, this one's really going to get hit cuz this is where the, you know, guys in Africa, those big gazels and all that stuff, what they go for? They go for the uh the animal that's weakest. And this animal is weak. And that means when it starts down, it's not going to have any friends. And very few friends on the way up. It's not going to have any friends on the way down if it ever does go down. Anyway, it's a really, really negative chart. The Dow Jones is not quite as negative, but it's still negative. You can see just since we were talking a little while ago, uh Dow's droppedund 120 points just in the last uh 2 hours here. So, that's excuse me, last half hour. So, that's really there's the ABCD today right there. There's your 78% level pretty much right on and that's backing off just a little bit. Now the last rally sold off to right there. So we should not get any lower than right there. That should be that should be all you get. That's market repeating over and over again. If it's really bullish today, that's all it should do. And if you measure that from your low up to your high right there, there's your 382. So we start getting below here down about another 40 or 50 points on the down, then it's going to have some problems because guess what? It'd be breaking below the 382. That's it. Now, someone asked the question, do I ever look at these smaller patterns like this in the Dow Jones where you have a low here and a high here and a high right up in there? I actually know because I I I I look usually just at an hourly chart on the Dow, but uh and also in the Russell, but on these smaller charts like we're looking at here, our smaller patterns that we're watching in the uh S&P and stuff, you can do that because there's a lot more trading going on in the S&P and in the NASDAQ than there is with the Dow Jones. That's one of the advantages that and that's why it's such a big one to trade is because that's where the players are. Remember the what's his name? Willie Lomax there death of a salesman. He said why do they rob banks? The guy said that's where the money is and that's what they do in the S&P. All right, let's get up here and talk just a little bit about this right here. We've got intel. Get this out of the way. We don't need to see that anymore. We don't need to see sugar anymore. And I'm trying to answer all the questions that have been in here today. Window tile vertical and right about there. So, these are the main ones that we're paying attention to here. Uh, mainly the bonds and the notes still look extremely bearish. Folks, if we look at that that 10-year note, there is absolutely nothing bullish about this at all. I, you know, I'm a just a technician, but if you showed me this chart and didn't tell me what it was, I would have to say that uh where there it is right here. Here's a daily on this now. Oh dear. Hold on a second here. [laughter] tricky little rascal. Okay, here it is. Now, if you see anything bullish about this, please write me a letter. By the time I get the letter, it would probably be bullish. But look at this. This thing just keeps going down, down, down, down, down. Look at this. This is a 5day rally. Are you kidding me? 1 2 3 4 5. Look at this. At least 1 2 3 4 5. You did something. This is nothing. Look where we are. It's absolutely rates are going higher, folks. They're not going to go lower. I know stocks are going up and rates are going down. Up. Well, that happens occasionally for a short period of time, but longer term, you know, money will follow where it's supposed to go. All right, so this doesn't look very good. And you look at this on the weekly chart, and you can see how bad it really looks. You can see this is breaking down. And if you look down on the monthly chart, then it's really bad. You see, you're breaking down through all this stuff right here. We should be at a bottom right here on this pattern right here. See that? That big ABCD? This shouldn't be the bottom. It's not going up. You know, if it's going up, then it's down. Then we'll take a shot at it. But that's not going up. This is very, very, very, very nasty up in here. So, that's what we're watching here, uh, with the Treasury notes. Okay. Now, we had a question about Tesla. I'm going to get this up here and bring it up. We had to look at Tesla again. Of course, it's one of our favorites. Let's get Tesla. Starts with a T, doesn't it? There it is. Tesla. I put the daily up. It should be up today. And it's got the little blue arrow on it. There it is. Is it? Uh, [clears throat] I think it is. There it is. Tesla. It is up today. There we go. Back up to 372. Looking pretty good. He'll probably uh be in charge of the new uh formation of government control pattern, which will be uh the AI cops. I don't know what they're going to call it, but uh they'll give it a real fancy name. And there's our number here. We went to the 618 right here. And that's what we're paying attention to here. There it is right there. That's all we've done in Tesla today. We're up a couple days here, but nothing really. Not like Intel. Intel gapped way up there. They must have got some. Let's take a look at Dell to see if it's still going up. See if it got to $600. And u John gave it the U. Uh there's Dell. We'll be right back. Here's Dell up here. And then I've got to change that. Oh, 576 is where it is right now. Hasn't made a new high today. That's a surprise. There's the ABCD. The high here. Yesterday was 592 and today the high is 590. We're trading at 576. So, nothing too exciting going on uh with that one uh as we see here unfolding right now. Okay. Now, let's make sure I don't miss anything up on this. Alrighty. And did I miss anything? Oh, the soybean meal. Remember soybean meal? That was really the big big daddy rabbit back here. It finally topped. Let's see if it did anything. There. There's October meal. We're going to get up here and take a quick look at it here. What we want to do now, there it is. Now, this is October sugar. Larry, get the give me a break. Just because it has an SB. There it is right there. Soybean meal only missed it by one little click. And we come back up in here. And we've come back quite a bit. There's our daily here. There was a high, but it's come back way fast, folks. Just look here. There's a big move down here. There's two days and this this rally right here, you're see it's going to be right at the 786, I believe. There it is. Almost there. Here's where we are today. Uh we started Sunday night and boom, there's Sunday night. Backed off a little bit. Here's where we are uh right now. It's a little above the 61% retracement as I see it, but oh no, we're not. We're right at it. There's the 61% retracement here in the soybean meal. Uh, now this should be at a major top because if you look at this, oh, it's going to do the same thing. This is December and that won't give me the answer that I need. Give me a second. I have to go to the uh one that gives all of this and we want to get this up on the weekly. So, we can see the weekly pattern cuz we're setting it some really strong resistance here. There it is right there at 50% off the high we made way back at 2023. See? So, we're still setting up in this area here where we should be a pretty big topping action in soybeans, wheat, oil, corn, all that stuff. Uh, and then and then the news is just the opposite because of the Elino. That's the, you know, the ocean currents are getting hot. That means the old anchovies are dying off. That means it's going to be harder to get feed and the weather makes it bad because, uh, all we have to do now is have a really good early frost. And look out, Gertrude. We can be looking at $20 soybeans. We'll be right back. [music] [music] If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. 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We didn't even make a 382 off of the low on Friday. It was that it was that strong. It dropped uh what from 34 dropped 24 handles and from there it just kept going straight up and and it basically it was pretty much straight up the whole day. There's your low on Friday. There's your early night. There's see right there. There's your spot right there. That probably brings you over to that high. And that's where we're going right now. We're trading up here around 27 and change up in this area right here with the number being at 38. Whe whether we make a new high or not, I don't think it makes any difference or not. But that's again uh my opinion. Uh the one that's in the news of course uh is the Bitcoin and oh dear certainly didn't want to do what I wanted it to do. I got to get rid of all this stuff and get the Bitcoin up because we went a little bit below uh the 86,000. Now the number was actually 84,000. That was the exact 382 coming off of the high at 126 all the way down to 50 was it 58 51 and then it rallied back up to uh no excuse me 58 and so it's rallied back to the 382 a little above it by about 170 points that's only that's less than 1% folks so that's a doable thing but we'll find out what happens but we're going to have some really big swings through here so let's try I won't be with you tomorrow but I will be back in the saddle on Wednesday and uh we'll see what uh see what goes on. Anyway, I hope that all helps. But u always use stops on these positions, folks, cuz I always say I'm often wrong but never in doubt. So you when you're in doubt, you got to get out because that is not good. Like I I I don't trade Bitcoin. Had I sold it at 84,000, I would have had to risk 3%. 3% of this is $3,000, folks. And I'm not going to risk $3,000 in something I know nothing about. So, that's what I'm paying attention to. All right, we'll see you on the flip side of the market tomorrow. And God bless. [music] [music]