September 21st Trade What You See with Larry Pesavento on TFNN - 2026
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
In this market analysis, Larry Pesavento highlights a divergence between major indices and smaller caps, noting that while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones made new highs alongside Apple, the Russell 2000 failed to rally and stalled near the 618 Fibonacci level. He maintains a strong bearish stance on Treasury bonds and notes despite recent rallies due to a lack of bullish structure, whereas gold recently generated a successful $50 profit following a perfect ABCD pattern. The commodities sector presented mixed signals with copper approaching new highs and crude oil hovering near a key 382 level after moving from August lows, while the corn market remained bullish on weekly charts despite missing previous peaks. In contrast, wheat saw little rally, but soybeans surged significantly due to weather news, though Larry identifies a major topping area for grains like soybeans, wheat, oil, and corn near the 61% Fibonacci retracement level and at 50% off their 2023 highs.
Currency markets showed strength in the British pound, which is being held long based on a robust pattern relative to the dollar index, while specific equity names displayed varied performance. Tesla shares rose but did not establish new highs, Dell missed its previous peak, and Intel gapped up, whereas live cattle remained bullish with a large gap-up. Regarding Bitcoin, which rallied back toward $86,000 after declining from $126,000 before dropping to 84,000, Larry observes that it reclaimed the 38.2% retracement level by approximately 170 points; however, he explicitly states he does not trade the asset because risking 3% on something he knows nothing about is unacceptable. He emphasizes his reliance on specific Fibonacci numbers, particularly the 382 retracement level, and advises all viewers to always utilize stop-losses when trading.
Looking ahead, Larry notes that El Niño conditions are heating up ocean currents, leading to anchovy die-offs that will tighten feed supplies, and warns that a potential early frost could further impact prices, potentially pushing soybeans toward $20. He informs his audience that he will be absent the following day for medical testing but plans to return with further analysis on Wednesday. The segment also includes promotional content for various TFN newsletters, including "Fibonacci 24/7" by Larry Pesavento, Rocket Equities and Options Report by Tommy O'Brien, Mastering Probability by Steve Rhodes, and the Tiger Zen Discord community, all of which offer a 30-day money-back guarantee. Ultimately, the discussion underscores the importance of technical patterns like ABCD structures and Fibonacci levels in navigating current market volatility while managing risk effectively across diverse asset classes.
Read the full video transcript
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Trade what you see
with Larry Pavvento.
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Call now toll-free at 1877-9276648
or internationally at 727-8737618.
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Now, Larry Pesventto.
Okay, folks. We're going to take a look
at the Russell 2000. If you want to see
something that is incredibly weak, I
posted this early this morning around
1:00 in the morning. I said, "Well, the
strength coming in the S&P and the Dow
Jones and the Nasdaq should get the
Russell up to right here, folks. It
can't even take out the high of last
Thursday." I mean, that is really,
really weak. Now, the Dow Jones is doing
pretty much the same thing, but it's a
lot stronger. As you can see here, we
came down today. Uh, you can see it
dropped 400 points coming down into And
let's just do this on the hourly chart
because it's real easy to see it, much
easier because we had the Hold on. I
think that's it. I want to show it to
you several different ways. There's
where we were last Friday. That said we
should had an ABCD up to this level
right here, which was the 382. But we
didn't do that. We just didn't even take
out the high of last week and then we
had the break. All it did came right
down, stopped right at the old magical
number of exactly 618 here this morning.
It's had a rally back 618 right now.
Now, I hadn't checked the AI on this and
then we'll bring that up and we'll see
where we are. Well, this is what it was
supposed to be doing. It's off by quite
a bit. So, let's just see. Uh, well, you
got the it's got the structure right.
The timing is not that good. The timing
was perfect in the NASDAQ in the Dow
Jones. I'm just looking at this the
first time. So, if I shift that over a
little bit, that still doesn't help very
much. So, I can't even use that. But,
you can see all we're doing now is
rallying back about to the 786. I No,
just above the 618 actually. There it
is. Right there. There. There's a
there's where it is right now. But we're
seeing really, really different uh
markets here, folks. Now, another one
that is really big. I mean, really,
really, really big. And it's in the news
all the time, and we've been talking
about it for quite some time here. And
that is, hold on one second. We'll get
this out of the way. That is Mr.
Bitcoin, folks. The 382 on this whole
move from way back here in August when
it was trading at 126,000 down to
58,000. that racket the rally back came
to 84,000. We're trading, I believe, at
86 right now. Let's take a look at that.
That's what it was a little bit earlier.
Here it is right now. There it is at 86.
It's trading at 86100. Let's go through
some of these others because a lot of
them don't look anywhere near as strong
as as you might think. The New York
Stock Exchange index is up slightly. The
Jack the German DAX is up just very
slightly. Uh let's see what we got here.
Japanese market is up slightly. The uh
Nifty50,
it's actually up a little bit. I mean, I
mean, a little bit. And here is the
semiconductor, uh, it's up quite a bit.
It's up about 4% today up into this
level. I think this is completing a
little bit of an ABCD. Uh, this thing's
just moving around a little bit there. I
think it's completing this little ABCD
here. We'll see. But there's a big
[clears throat] big divergence here on
these things, folks. So, I think it's
very very important that we pay close
attention. We're almost making new highs
in the S&P, folks. Uh that uh remember
now those S&P of the 500, you're talking
about 100 stocks cuz those are the ones
that have all the money behind them.
That's talking about Nvidia and even
Apple. Apple today. Uh get this Apple to
show you where Apple was making all time
new highs today in Apple. Let's get this
up here so we can see it real quickly.
>> [snorts]
>> Don't do stocks too much. I don't do
stocks at all, but people ask me about
it. And here is Oh, this thing is just
drives me nuts.
God, I hate this. I'm going to have to
do something. See, we made a new high
here in Apple, folks. You see, we had
three higher highs right in here. Brand
new high in Apple here at 338. That's uh
if you'd have sold that right there,
backed off a little bit, but this would
be a losing trade right now of $5
because we would have sold [laughter]
we would have sold it right here at 335
and be stopped out at uh at 338. That's
a myth mythical trade cuz I really don't
do those uh those types of trades. Okay,
now let's move on here and talk about
the treasury bonds. Treasury bonds and
treasury notes are having a little bit
of a rally here today. I'm extremely
bearish these folks. We sold this 382 uh
coming in this tonight. We had a $1,000
profit. We elected to stay with it
because we [clears throat] think we're
going to go lower. We sold it right here
at 10728 and that's where our stop is.
And that you can see the bottom we made
right down here on the 15th. That led to
a nice little 3-day rally. That 3-day
rally went virtually nowhere. You think
bonds are bullish, folks? Show me
something about this chart that is
bullish. I'd really like to know.
Looking at this on the big picture, got
a little bit of the ABCD that we talked
about. That was right about there. But
look what it's done. I mean, hasn't even
Look at this on this day right here
between the 18th. Look how much we
rallied. Look, look where we are now.
Okay, that means the three more days
we're going to get up there. H possible.
Boy, it sure looks bearish to me. But
then again, I'm just looking at what I
see uh as far as pictures on these
charts. Uh that's pretty much what we're
watching here. Okay, let's move on here
for a little bit. I think we Oh, with
the government. We had a beautiful trade
in the gold today, folks. I posted this
long before right up in here. This is
where I post it. Well, I said long
before this would happen. But if you
look at this on the hourly chart, we had
an absolute perfect da drum roll,
please. There it is right there. There's
your reaction back. Hold on just a
second. And I posted it. When this was
here, I said it's going to go to right
to there. And all I said was sell it
right there and risk about 10 bucks. And
as you can see, we went to the 50%
level. That was at 09. The high was at
14. And it dropped all the way down to
give you a $50 profit if you had been
watching it. And you can see here,
there's your uh AB leg right here.
There's your CD leg right there. You
could have actually gone long down here
in some area and uh traded it that way
because if you look at this on a little
bit longer time frame here, this is
acting pretty bullish, folks. This the
last 3 days anyway. It didn't go down
very much from your low up to your high
up into this area. Went below the 382 uh
for just a little bit on this big wash
out down. Uh that measured to 69 and the
low was 60. And then of course we had
the rally back. And the rally back
really just verifies that hold on, let's
just get this out. I I I trade numbers,
folks, because after these guys on Wall
Street, they're doing it all day long.
So I figured I might as well do it.
There's your high right here. There's
your low word to go to again, the 382,
and it's already backed off, you know,
$89 from that level. So that's what
we're paying attention to. Now, you see
the top thing up right here? That's
copper, folks. Copper almost made a
brand new high today. I want the reason
why I'm saying that we're having new
highs and Bitcoin and a bunch of other
stuff and it might mean that there's a
big big pattern up in here somewhere. I
don't know what it is. I don't know what
it is astrologically. I can't figure
that out, but I've been doing that for
60 years and I still can't figure it
out. So, here's where we are. Oh, there
it goes. Hiding again. Here's new highs
coming in the copper. Let me get this
out of the way. All right. Just going to
have to deal with it the best I can. We
almost made a new high today. We missed
it by a little bit. We took out the high
the previous day here at 84. Okay. And
that's what we've done here so far. I
thought new highs were coming and they
still might be there, but we didn't
quite get there as of yet. Now, we're
going to take a little break. When we
get back, we're going to go over some
foreign currency and we're going to go
over some [music] grains and oil seeds.
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Okay, folks. We'll talk about crude oil
here for a little bit. You can see from
early August, we went from 72 to 102.
That's a $30
move in crude oil. You can see now these
last few days here, we've been backing
off just a little bit. There was that
pattern we were looking at. If you
remember, we were in the U spot October
at the time at 107. That completed this
little butterfly pattern. I believe we
were on the air when it was happening.
And then of course the market breaks
down, goes up. There's another ABCD just
slightly above the 382 goes almost at
50%. And folks, pay attention, you know,
if you like these numbers because going
back to last August, look where we are
almost here right now, folks. Here,
that's at 9050. We're only a buck and a
half away. I said, look at I Well,
[clears throat] doesn't make any
difference what I said. This is what I'm
looking to think it's going to get to
this level and maybe uh hold some
support here. Um, we made new all-time
highs in uh diesel fuel today, folks.
That's a big deal for those people that
drive diesels, especially truck type
people. There's your ABCD coming in
right about there. We'll draw it in so
you can see a little bit of an idea of
what we're watching here. There's your
ABCD. And there it is. We're almost We
is there right now. My golly, we sure
are. Let's take a look at the AI just
for kicks and giggles. Maybe. I haven't
looked at it today, that's for sure. And
the reason why is it's on X and we've
got to switch it over to uh spot. And
that only takes me just a second to do
that. Well, it used to take a second.
Now it takes about 45 seconds. So there
it is. There's your 2 minute. And here's
what our game plan looks like.
It's hidden behind here, of course. Here
it is. Here's crude oil. Let's get this
up here like this. Oh, this is this is
really frustrating. Okay, there's where
we are. And there's what the AI was
saying for well, you can see it's been
it's been coming down uh for quite some
time. So, it's uh not much help here
with the AI today as you can see here.
But you can see if you go to the hourly
chart here, there's your ABCD. We are uh
now it's missing data. On the other one,
it isn't missing data. On this one, it
is. Let's just hold on here a second and
we'll try to get up to right about here.
There's your ABCD. Now, this is the this
is the original now. So, I just go to
the hourly and you'll be able to see the
ABCD. There it is coming here. You can
see how close we are within just about
uh 60 70 points of that total ABCD that
we're looking at. That same one that
we're watching right there. That number
comes in right about there. That's going
to be your 382 of that whole gamilla
from way back here in August. That's
something you should pay attention to
because that's a 382 there. You're going
to see how close we are to it right
there. That's like 9050. So, it's about
a buck away. I know it's a big wide
ranging bar, but uh you got to pay
attention to those 382s in these real
strong markets. There's your 382 right
here. And look what happened. So, it's
very bearish right now, but one rocket
away, you know, who knows where it could
be. So, let's get this out of the way
right here. And you'll be seeing that
right there. Okay. Now folks, I will not
be here tomorrow. Tomorrow's my test
day. It was supposed to be Friday, but
it's going to be tomorrow. They test me
for uh you know, dis not dizziness, but
uh your balance and your coordination
and mental stuff and uh and that's just
all part of the insurance program that
I'm on. All right, let's get this out of
the way here and move over and talk
about some of the grains because I've
been very bearish to grains. And let's
see what they've been doing. Now you can
see the wheat. Uh,
add a boil. Larry, just get it like
that. That should do it. Okay, now
here's wheat. We've had virtually no
rally here in the wheat today. It's uh
did well, you can see it had a little
bit of a pullback. Virtually no rally at
all. Now, let's take a look at the one
that's in the news because of El Nino.
This El Nino is still still a big
problem. That's the soybean market.
There's soybean. I'm going to bring the
AI up just to see how November beans are
acting with it. Here they are. right
here. All I got to do is get it out of
the way. Right there. And there is the
November beans. Wow. There algo today.
Look at this. This is not U. Here's
where
the AI does it work all the time, folks.
You guys already know that it works
about 65. When it works, it's pretty
good. So, let's since we've got this
here, I got to get this off here so I
can get the whole program here. Now,
let's move on to the hourly chart. And
you can see how much beans are rallying
today. Remember, we thought this was
going to be a really big high up here.
So, so far it is. But look at today's
action, folks. [snorts] We went from
3060. We rallied $1,000 here in this.
You know, it was, you know, held pretty
good down here at the 786. There was our
low here earlier in the morning and then
news came out that the weather was
changing and boom, away it went. There
was a little bit of a pullback and
that's it. We're We don't have a
position in this. We were just looking
for the stock up in here. We had a nice
breakdown. We had nothing going on in
the grains at all. Just bring them to
you one at a time. All right. So, those
are the ones that I'm trying trying to
pay attention to. So, let's switch over
for just a second here. And we want to
take a look at the corn market because
corn was affected by all this stuff
today. And here's Christmas corn. We'll
bring this up on the hourly. Uh see if
we've taken out the highs as of yet, but
nope. But we're not very far away.
Here's our corn move. Look how much corn
how little corn has backed off, folks.
Look at this. from the this is all of
September. Look, this is in the middle
of harvest. Hello, operator. Give me a
break. You know, this thing Well, it's
not in the middle of harvest, but
harvesting's beginning. This is still
acting incredibly bullish. Looking at
this on the 4 hour, you know, we're up.
We're right up at the highs. There's no
no selloff here. All during the 3 weeks
of September, nothing. Not a zippo. So,
that's telling us it's acting pretty
good, don't you think? And if we look at
this on the long-term weekly, this is
what I'm baking baking baking this on.
Baking this on is these long-term weekly
charts. See, the problem here's here's
the problem with the data that I have,
folks. You see where it says CZ6?
That means December of 26. That doesn't
cover everything. In order to cover
everything, I have to go up here to
corn. That gives me all of the data
going back as far as I want. So, I'm
going to go to the weekly chart and show
you on the weekly chart. And there it's
hidden behind here, just like it should
be, of course. Wow.
[snorts] All right. There's where we are
right there. And you can see we're right
at the 382 on the long-term weekly. And
folks, this means something. Ah, golly.
Gee, just a minute now. Hold your own
horses here. We'll see what we got. Uh,
it probably won't work. It is working.
Okay, we're at the 382 of the high we
made way back here. Now, folks, I want
to show you something here that might
have your interest. We have been here
for 1 2 3 4 5 weeks up in this area and
we haven't been able to pop through. So,
it's still bearish in my opinion in the
corn. And we looked at the same thing in
beans. You would have seen the same
thing in beans. Let's take a look at the
soybean oil, which has been the bearish,
most bearish of them all. get the daily
up and then we'll look at the weekly to
find hide it and see what soybean oil
should be getting whacked pretty hard
today because of the fact that the crude
oil and because of the green energy and
the soybean oil and you can see it's up
a little bit. It just took out the
previous day's high [gasps]
there's your 135 pattern. We're still
coming down here. There's nothing
bullish here about this. Ah, there is
something bullish possibly and that is
let's clean this out right now. We've
got an ABCD forming here. Have to pay
close attention to this one here because
there's your AB CD leg coming down here
just a little bit lower. Looks exactly
at the 786. And then you'll be able to
see if that's going to hold it or not.
All right. So, I think with the old
bells and whistles are going to have a
commercial and we'll be right back.
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[music]
Okay, folks. Here's a a trade we were
ready for, and that was sell at 115.
High had been here 112. And as you can
see here, it gapped up quite a bit.
gapped up above that and went a little
bit higher. Um, you know, that's the
news, I guess. I don't trade stocks, but
if you done that one, you would have
been out. Your three-point loss would
have been very, very quick, and you
wouldn't had had any pain at all. And
that's what pain's for. See, there's
your sell would have been here 115 right
there. There's your buy stop would have
been right there. It'd be it'd be
history. Now, we're really close to a
major major ABCD pattern here, folks. I
want to get this up here because I
talked about it in the video. And there
it is right now. There's a number we
were looking at. I was looking here.
There's my number. I sold it at at
78.25.
But I'm early because if we look at this
on the hourly chart, you're going to be
able to see there our target is right
there. It's right here at 78.40. That's
the original target that we were looking
at on Sunday night. That comes in at
7840. That means it's going to make a
elgo new high. Almost. The old high was
yes, it will make a new high at that
point. You'll be taking out that high if
we get there. And that's at 78.40. Okay.
Now, I sold at 78.25 because I'm
following the AI a little bit. But
that's what I'm look at. There's that.
There's where we were Friday night. I
said there's no way you can be bearish
that with that ABCD right at the 382.
Shut the front door and raise your rent.
That's the kind you wait for. But that's
how they end. We'll find out if it's
going to mean anything or not. So, we'll
be watching it right here. Now, we've
made a new high in the uh NASDAQ. We'll
just get this up here one second here. I
want to show it to you. We do the same
thing with the NASDAQ. We'll put the
hourly chart up and it should give us
the same ABCD pattern that we're looking
at. [snorts] And here's where we are.
We'll see right here. D.
Okay. Now, there's where we were the
last few days. Okay. Here's the action.
There's your 382 on Friday. That's very
easy to see. There's your move right
here. And your 382 misses it by about 60
uh points. Okay. Now, here's we come in
Sunday night and it's been going
straight up. 970.
Are we up that much?
Wow. That's 1,000 points. Oh yeah. 1,000
points from Friday night. We sure are.
970 to 36. No, it's up 700 points. Let's
measure the ABCD here just for kicks and
giggles if you want to do that. There's
your A leg right here. There's your B
leg. This is See where See, it comes in
exactly at uh 33%. We wanted it to come
in at 38. There it is right there. As
you put it right there, we're above it.
We're already above the target right
here. Okay. So, the should have come in
here at 30,600.
So, it's up about 70 points higher than
it would have been. And with this
strength like this, you could say you
can move this to the 127 level just to
be safe, which is always a good thing to
be. And uh there's where it is. And that
woo, that would means we we're going to
go up here another 200 points up into
this area right here. But who knows?
This is Well, I'm watching I don't trade
the NASDAQ very often, folks. I mean,
that maybe once a week, and that's when
it's really quiet, which almost it never
is. And but the S&P I trade almost all
the time. And I saying the one I'm
betting on was at 25 only because of
that the number is 40. Between 25 and
40, it's 50 handles. I can handle a $750
loss. You do the micros. That's a 75
bucks or
75. It' be 100. Yeah. Be $75. So it
wouldn't be too bad if you did the
micro. But that's what we're watching.
And I'm following this because it's done
a pretty good job overall. got a little
bit early sometimes, but this is what
I'm watching here as I'm looking at it.
Now, we're going to switch over to one
other thing here, folks. So, let's look
at the live cattle. And here, ah boy,
[sighs]
[gasps]
[clears throat] there we go. As soon as
I change the little red blue dot, I'm
okay. And I hopefully I'm okay. Let's
get that up. There's where we are in
cattle today. Cattle gapped up today big
time, folks. You can see here we gapped
up about two points. We're now up five
points from the bottom. six points for
the close here last night. Okay, there
was our big move down your ABCD. Let's
see if it had anything special on the
longer term. Looking at this on cattle,
there was your ABCD pattern right here.
And if you drew that in from your low to
your high, you had to be coming in
bullish here because you have an ABCD.
That's where you closed on Friday, right
at the 61% retracement. And what' you do
today? You gap up. you grapped up from
16 to 19. 300 points and now you're Look
at this. You're 600 points, folks.
That's 24 $2,400
uh in the uh in the cattle. And they
stayed here. Look, they stayed right at
the 786 for almost 2 hours. And now
we're starting to move. That's when it
breaks out of those ranges. Golly, gee,
you got to think it's going to be going
higher. So, this looks pretty bullish
along with uh everything else that's
going on. All right, so that's the
cattle market. Now, someone's asked a
question about the sugar market cuz we
had a big I had to bring it up, didn't
I? Sugar and there's sugar SB. We used
the October. Bring it up and see if it's
done the right thing or not. All right,
here's where we are. Okay, we should be
at the moment of truth here in the Oh,
dog it. Just give me one second here. I
don't trade sugar at all, but here's
where we are in the sugar. And you can
see we're down quite a bit from that,
but we're at a I believe we're at a very
close 382 or it wouldn't have beeped
off, I don't think. Yeah, there it is.
There it is right there. We're looking
sugar to get down to this level right
here. We almost got there, but not quite
yet. That's pretty close. There's uh
yeah, within a day. There's Friday and
there's today. Only misses it by
[clears throat] a few cents, but we're
only a few cents off of it. So, that
still looks like it's normal to me. It's
one of the reasons why I don't trade
sugar because it looks normal. Okay,
here's one that I really like and it's
not working in the right direction right
now, but it looks okay still. Here's the
British pound and this has been
incredibly good to us, folks. You we've
done all we've done all these trades. We
bought it here, sold it here, bought it
here, sold it here, bought [snorts] it
here, sold it there, and bought it here.
That's where we bought it right now.
Looking at this on the hourly chart,
you're going to be able to see what we
were doing here. There's where we were
this morning. We had the big gap up.
Hold on. There's our gap up this
morning. We didn't have a position. I
said you had to buy it on the 382
retracement. That 382 retracement came
in right here. Right there. And there's
we're trading a tiny bit below it right
now. Let me change these. So the set the
set the defaults correctly. There we go.
And there's where we bought it right
here. And that's where we are right now.
Our stop was right about in here. That
means if that fails, looks pretty bad.
Now remember when we were doing this, I
know I remembered, but let's take a look
at the dollar index because that's the
one that was easy one to see from my
perspective. So there's the dollar
index. And all I got to do now is hit
the little blue thing on the dollar
index, which is right there. And it'll
pop up for us. And there it is right
there. You see we had that big 382 here.
Excuse me, the big 61% retracement.
Okay. 8 days up here, 8 days up here.
And so I said, "Looks like we want to be
long the pound and long the uh euro."
And I said, "Well, I picked the pound
because the pound had a little stronger
little stronger pattern." So that's what
we're doing. All we're doing now is this
is bouncing back just a little bit.
We're not, you know, we're just going to
wait and see here. Let's stay tuned
[music] here. Stay tuned.
>> [music]
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>> Okay, folks. This is the Russell 2000
over the last uh two weeks. As you can
see here, we had the big ABCD pattern
here on Friday. It had a big rally
today. Look at this, folks. Stop and
think. Look what this is right here.
2910. The ABCD on this measured way up
here. And that's why I said it it'd be a
great sale. Look what this is. The Dow
Jones up 500 points. This thing isn't up
10 points on the day. Not even 10. Well,
it's stepped up 10 points. I mean,
that's ridiculous how weak it is. Now,
history's going to say if the S&P's
topping here, this one's really going to
get hit cuz this is where the, you know,
guys in Africa, those big gazels and all
that stuff, what they go for? They go
for the uh the animal that's weakest.
And this animal is weak. And that means
when it starts down, it's not going to
have any friends. And very few friends
on the way up. It's not going to have
any friends on the way down if it ever
does go down. Anyway, it's a really,
really negative chart. The Dow Jones is
not quite as negative, but it's still
negative. You can see just since we were
talking a little while ago, uh Dow's
droppedund
120 points just in the last uh 2 hours
here. So, that's excuse me, last half
hour. So, that's really there's the ABCD
today right there. There's your 78%
level pretty much right on and that's
backing off just a little bit. Now the
last rally sold off to right there. So
we should not get any lower than right
there. That should be that should be all
you get. That's market repeating over
and over again. If it's really bullish
today, that's all it should do. And if
you measure that from your low up to
your high right there, there's your 382.
So we start getting below here down
about another 40 or 50 points on the
down, then it's going to have some
problems because guess what? It'd be
breaking below the 382. That's it. Now,
someone asked the question, do I ever
look at these smaller patterns like this
in the Dow Jones where you have a low
here and a high here and a high right up
in there? I actually know because I I I
I look usually just at an hourly chart
on the Dow, but uh and also in the
Russell, but on these smaller charts
like we're looking at here, our smaller
patterns that we're watching in the uh
S&P and stuff, you can do that because
there's a lot more trading going on in
the S&P and in the NASDAQ than there is
with the Dow Jones. That's one of the
advantages that and that's why it's such
a big one to trade is because that's
where the players are. Remember the
what's his name? Willie Lomax there
death of a salesman. He said why do they
rob banks? The guy said that's where the
money is and that's what they do in the
S&P. All right, let's get up here and
talk just a little bit about this right
here. We've got intel. Get this out of
the way. We don't need to see that
anymore. We don't need to see sugar
anymore. And I'm trying to answer all
the questions that have been in here
today. Window tile vertical and right
about there. So, these are the main ones
that we're paying attention to here. Uh,
mainly the bonds and the notes still
look extremely bearish. Folks, if we
look at that that 10-year note, there is
absolutely nothing bullish about this at
all. I, you know, I'm a just a
technician, but if you showed me this
chart and didn't tell me what it was, I
would have to say that uh where there it
is right here. Here's a daily on this
now. Oh dear. Hold on a second here.
[laughter]
tricky little rascal. Okay, here it is.
Now, if you see anything bullish about
this, please write me a letter. By the
time I get the letter, it would probably
be bullish. But look at this. This thing
just keeps going down, down, down, down,
down. Look at this. This is a 5day
rally. Are you kidding me? 1 2 3 4 5.
Look at this. At least 1 2 3 4 5. You
did something. This is nothing. Look
where we are. It's absolutely rates are
going higher, folks. They're not going
to go lower. I know stocks are going up
and rates are going down. Up. Well, that
happens occasionally for a short period
of time, but longer term, you know,
money will follow where it's supposed to
go. All right, so this doesn't look very
good. And you look at this on the weekly
chart, and you can see how bad it really
looks.
You can see this is breaking down. And
if you look down on the monthly chart,
then it's really bad. You see, you're
breaking down through all this stuff
right here. We should be at a bottom
right here on this pattern right here.
See that? That big ABCD? This shouldn't
be the bottom. It's not going up. You
know, if it's going up, then it's down.
Then we'll take a shot at it. But that's
not going up. This is very, very, very,
very nasty up in here. So, that's what
we're watching here, uh, with the
Treasury notes. Okay. Now, we had a
question about Tesla. I'm going to get
this up here and bring it up. We had to
look at Tesla again. Of course, it's one
of our favorites. Let's get Tesla.
Starts with a T, doesn't it? There it
is. Tesla. I put the daily up. It should
be up today. And it's got the little
blue arrow on it. There it is. Is it?
Uh, [clears throat] I think it is.
There it is. Tesla. It is up today.
There we go. Back up to 372.
Looking pretty good. He'll probably uh
be in charge of the new uh formation of
government control pattern, which will
be uh the AI cops. I don't know what
they're going to call it, but uh they'll
give it a real fancy name. And there's
our number here. We went to the 618
right here. And that's what we're paying
attention to here. There it is right
there. That's all we've done in Tesla
today. We're up a couple days here, but
nothing really. Not like Intel. Intel
gapped way up there. They must have got
some. Let's take a look at Dell to see
if it's still going up. See if it got to
$600.
And u
John gave it the U. Uh there's Dell.
We'll be right back. Here's Dell up
here. And then I've got to change that.
Oh, 576 is where it is right now. Hasn't
made a new high today. That's a
surprise. There's the ABCD. The high
here. Yesterday was 592 and today the
high is 590. We're trading at 576. So,
nothing too exciting going on uh with
that one uh as we see here unfolding
right now. Okay. Now, let's make sure I
don't miss anything up on this.
Alrighty. And did I miss anything? Oh,
the soybean meal. Remember soybean meal?
That was really the big big daddy rabbit
back here. It finally topped. Let's see
if it did anything. There. There's
October meal. We're going to get up here
and take a quick look at it here. What
we want to do now, there it is.
Now, this is October sugar. Larry, get
the give me a break. Just because it has
an SB. There it is right there. Soybean
meal only missed it by one little click.
And we come back up in here. And we've
come back quite a bit. There's our daily
here. There was a high, but it's come
back way fast, folks. Just look here.
There's a big move down here. There's
two days and this this rally right here,
you're see it's going to be right at the
786, I believe. There it is. Almost
there. Here's where we are today. Uh we
started Sunday night and boom, there's
Sunday night. Backed off a little bit.
Here's where we are uh right now. It's a
little above the 61% retracement as I
see it, but oh no, we're not. We're
right at it. There's the 61% retracement
here in the soybean meal. Uh, now this
should be at a major top because if you
look at this, oh, it's going to do the
same thing. This is December and that
won't give me the answer that I need.
Give me a second. I have to go to the uh
one that gives all of this and we want
to get this up on the weekly. So, we can
see the weekly pattern cuz we're setting
it some really strong resistance here.
There it is right there at 50% off the
high we made way back at 2023. See? So,
we're still setting up in this area here
where we should be a pretty big topping
action in soybeans, wheat, oil, corn,
all that stuff. Uh, and then and then
the news is just the opposite because of
the Elino. That's the, you know, the
ocean currents are getting hot. That
means the old anchovies are dying off.
That means it's going to be harder to
get feed and the weather makes it bad
because, uh, all we have to do now is
have a really good early frost. And look
out, Gertrude. We can be looking at $20
soybeans. We'll be right back. [music]
[music]
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Receive a comprehensive report packed
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[music]
Okay folks, the reason for the
bullishness on Sunday night, you notice
that we opened lower Sunday night. We
didn't even make a 382 off of the low on
Friday. It was that it was that strong.
It dropped uh what from 34 dropped 24
handles and from there it just kept
going straight up and and it basically
it was pretty much straight up the whole
day. There's your low on Friday. There's
your early night. There's see right
there. There's your spot right there.
That probably brings you over to that
high. And that's where we're going right
now. We're trading up here around 27 and
change up in this area right here with
the number being at 38. Whe whether we
make a new high or not, I don't think it
makes any difference or not. But that's
again uh my opinion. Uh the one that's
in the news of course uh is the Bitcoin
and oh dear certainly didn't want to do
what I wanted it to do. I got to get rid
of all this stuff and get the Bitcoin up
because we went a little bit below uh
the 86,000. Now the number was actually
84,000. That was the exact 382 coming
off of the high at 126 all the way down
to 50
was it 58 51 and then it rallied back up
to uh no excuse me 58 and so it's
rallied back to the 382 a little above
it by about 170 points that's only
that's less than 1% folks so that's a
doable thing but we'll find out what
happens but we're going to have some
really big swings through here so let's
try I won't be with you tomorrow but I
will be back in the saddle on Wednesday
and uh we'll see what uh see what goes
on. Anyway, I hope that all helps. But u
always use stops on these positions,
folks, cuz I always say I'm often wrong
but never in doubt. So you when you're
in doubt, you got to get out because
that is not good. Like I I I don't trade
Bitcoin. Had I sold it at 84,000, I
would have had to risk 3%. 3% of this is
$3,000, folks. And I'm not going to risk
$3,000 in something I know nothing
about. So, that's what I'm paying
attention to. All right, we'll see you
on the flip side of the market tomorrow.
And God bless. [music]
[music]