September 21st Steve Rhodes on The Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

Welcome back, folks. We got an S&P right now. Futures at all-time highs up 129 points. NASDAQ up nearly 3%. And to talk about some of this market action, folks, we're going to jump over to our man Steve Rhodess. You can check out Steve's outstanding daily program, folks. The Trader Edge, right here at TFN, 11:00 a.m. till noon Eastern time every trading day. And if you head on over to the front page of TFN, right under the newsletters tab, you'll see Steve's daily newsletter, folks, Mastering Probability. You hit that subscribe button, you can sign up for $149 a month, and it comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, folks. So, you have nothing to risk. You get the full month, you gain access to his webinars, you get to use it for the month, see if you like it, and worst case, you got nothing to risk. And man, we got quite a market. Steve Rhodess, good afternoon. >> Hey, Tommy. How are you today? >> I'm doing well, man. How's your Monday going? Good, good. Hey, I just jumped into the seat just back from a doctor appointment and some of the stuff I don't know if I may repeat something that you know that that you had said. My apology if so. Um, but you know, five weeks ago today when we were on the line together, uh, what I was mentioning because it was that day, it was actually a couple days, it was it was actually it was uh, it was a couple days before that when I was reviewing the charts for the QEDW. And what I had noticed here was that the QQ, which is the equal weighted ETF for the Q's, it had made a new all-time high, made a new alltime high on August 13th, but we had not made it. And here's the August 13th QQQ uh, time period. So you can see we're not at a new all-time high in the Q's. So I wanted to go back and take a look at all the historical data and see how many instances do we have the QQEW at a new all-time high and the Q's not and then what transpired afterwards and because of I had received so many emails that we were going to in bare markets and I was you know that was not coming out in my communication uh during the show out there. My study showed, and this is what you and I had discussed, was there were 76 instances where that had occurred, where QQ, the equal weighted, made a new all-time high, but the Q's did not. And what I found was in every single one of those instances, the Q's went ahead and followed and made that new all-time high. Not before, not before any type of 20% correction. I'm not saying there's going to be 20% correction. I'm just saying those were the two options that we took a look at. And so, it's not a surprise that that we are not there. So, the Q's themselves have not gotten the NASDAQ themselves have not gotten back to the all-time highs, but I believe that's where we're headed to. And as I I'm sure you pointed out, we've got confirmed A to B equal CD patterns to the upside. The volume right now, you know, in the cues themselves is uh is 31 million shares versus the swing point that it was taken out is uh about 23 26 million shares. I mean, that's that's pretty powerful. And the one one price projection gets us to 773. If I open up the full charts, where does that take us to? New all-time highs. We would negate the TD9 count pattern. Now, from a Q standpoint, they're getting real close. Or maybe we're already there. Oh, we are already there. So, the Q's are trading inside the June 3rd swing point, Tommy. That June 3rd swing point was a TD9 count top that had volume of only 40 million shares. And as we just talked about, 321 and we're up with 31 million shares. Pretty good chance we're going to have that volume come to that swing point. And your dad would teach us if you close inside a swing point that means above 74101 and you do with volume you're going to go test the high and that's at 74865. So it seems like that is likely going to come to fruition out there. And with this A to B equal CD pattern um the retracement here on this B to C leg I think was about a 50% retracement. Odds favorite does more than a one to one move to the upside out there. the other aspect of this set of charts here. So, we're just looking at the daily time frame for the NQ that's got that A to B equals C to the same thing for the NASDAQ uh indicy, the cash indicy, the Q's themselves. The concern I had this morning in doing the show with the trader edge was in taking a look at the QQEW. Now, it had made a nice TD9 count bottom pattern. We talked about this last Thursday and Friday on the show and how was likely to rally up towards the oscillator and change line which is about 159. It did more than that obviously. But my bigger concern, Tommy, is when a new profile forms above price, which is what occurred here in the QQEW, that's typically a bearish message. This happens to be a what I refer to as a bullish structure profile. What I mean by that is a profile basically has three levels. It has the top which is resistance, the bottom, which is support, and the center, which is in between the levels of those, the top and the bottom, where buyers believe there's fair value inside that range. When the center line is closer to the bottom where the buyers are at, I consider that to be a bullish structured profile. The opposite would be a bearish structured profile. What I have found in looking at thousands and thousands of charts out here is if this was only going to be a counter trend rally, price would find resistance at 16250. Now, it's only 3:22. It'll be interesting to see where the market, the cash market closes at 4 p.m., but if it's above 16250 in the QEDW, it tells us that this move is not a counter trend rally. That there's some more to that. that we continue to move higher. Now, all this sounds uber bullish, and it is, but I want to take I want folks to look at the bottom panel of my screen out there. This is something new that we've added to, and it really is cool. I'm going to open up the cues. In fact, let me just open this up. And what this does, this kind of shows us the cadence, um the uh dance steps, the consecutive moves higher and consecutive moves lower. The red digits are consecutive moves lower, black digits consecutive moves higher. Typically in bull markets, you might make a 4-day move and then a two-day pullback or one to four day pullback. That's typically how markets operate. Here we're going to be in day number four. Last time we were in day number four was on August the 4th and we had a couple day retracement out there before the markets moved higher. So even though we've got all this great solid information and we do, I just want people to realize that tomorrow morning if we start to see the cues trade lower, that's normal, >> right? That's just the normal pattern of the market and how it dances. So, what's really key today for folks in my opinion is 16250. If we close above that and we're at 16271 right now, that tells us this move is more than real. And that now I don't know whether the QEW will get to new all-time highs. That's not the important point, but the other uh instruments will. That does that kind of make sense? >> It's awesome, man. And I, you know, I I love that presentation five weeks ago, man. I thought about it many times cuz there's some strong strong data. You know, just everything you were talking about and uh I've thought about it many times and I was thinking about it today, Steve. So, I was going to ask you about it. Of course, you beat me to it, but as in it's real and that's in, you know, I was going to joke that we might get it all today and we might get it all today. Not quite. But pretty close in the NASDAQ, man. It's quite a number and it should I mean, what a day. Just straight up. Nobody No, I mean, just no hesitation in this market. It's something else, man. Pretty cool. Yeah. No, you just I was just going to say that and I love how you point out that, hey, you know, we're up so much. If we go down tomorrow, that's a 6% move in the cues, folks, over 4 days. A 6% move in the Q's over four days. So, pretty cool that, you know, to keep that in context if we get even a 1% pullback. And I don't even think it will, but just like as you mentioned it, great stuff, man. Yeah. >> Well, I I could see somebody could listen to us talk, listen to me talk or what have you, and just assume I'm going to just go out and buy this. I'm saying no, don't just do that. You just had a 4day move to the upside out there. You know, if you want to buy this, wait for a two-day pullback. Now, the NASDAQ Composite, Tommy, it is just inches away from a new alltime high. So, the cues aren't. But the Nasdaq Composite, this alltime high is 26,952. We're at 27. >> Wait, no, it couldn't be it. Wait, >> the alltime high 27190 and we're 27139. >> Look at that. And Yeah. Pretty amazing. Look at that. >> Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, it's it's it's kind of cool. There's um you know there's a uh um so I'll just pull up my my uh black background charts just for a moment just looking for some confirming evidence here and one of those pieces of the New York Stock Exchange it's advanced client oscillator. So the one concern and this I think this adds the idea that we should see a two-day pullback out here and I'm not looking at intraday charts. I don't say it starts at 5:00 or 6:00 tonight or what have you, but the the advanced client oscillator which measures which measures the difference between the 19 and 39 exponential moving average of the advanced decline line. And it's a very cool oscillator because when price is above it zero threshold level, it really buyers really do have an edge. And when it's below that, sellers have an edge. Sellers have the edge right now. Even though we've got nice bottoming patterns out there, I I really think we're getting ready for a couple day pullback. But I still believe the market moves on. we make a new NDX uh 100 high. >> Steve, great stuff. You know, exact price points, actionable info. Folks, check it out. Mastering probability right under that newsletter tab. Get a 30-day money back guarantee. And tomorrow at 11:00 at Trader Edge, Steve, great stuff, man. Appreciate it. Look forward to the show tomorrow. Thanks so much. You bet. Take care. >> Take care. We'll come right back, folks.