September 1st, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] >> Hello folks, Basil Chapman sitting here with Tim O'Brien. This is the moment when we start we interview a Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle and just uh he's been for at least what I can it's about maybe two three years that you've been on every Tuesday and Thursday giving us all this information. Hi Tim, how are you? >> Hi yeah, fine fine. So anyhow, people can find me here at www.ord-oracle.com and my email is ord@ oracle ord-oracle.com. I'm also on Twitter. You can go there. I update uh um some interesting charts along the way but anyhow, let's let's begin what's going on in the market here. Um I'm going to skip a little bit here. This this is a daily SPX. And um uh No, this is the SPY daily. Anyhow, uh you had a sign strength this is SOS through the previous highs which is this line right here and market kind of rallied up kind of went sideways and on August 4th uh which is this day right there that volume came in at 69 million shares and I uh and it formed a little gap. Not a big gap, a little gap. That's the reason why I have gap there and it formed it started at the low of that day anyhow 760.52 on the SPY. Now if you uh so the market kind of went sideways today uh this is earlier in the day we tested that gap. And it's a 10% lighter test in other words lighter 10% lighter volume than 69 million shares comes out 62 million shares. So when a market goes back and tests the gap and the volume is at least 10% lighter, it can be, you know, 40% lighter, but it has to at least be 10% lighter, uh and that gap will act as support. And the volume is not going to be anywhere near 62 million shares, probably going to be around 40 million. So, we're testing the gap right now, uh or earlier or we have tested that gap. This day is not over yet. We've got, you know, half hour to go before the market closes, and but volume is going to probably come in around 40 million shares. So, this today's probably a low in the market. We're also banging against the previous highs of June, July right here. So, there's a lot of gap There's There's to to get through a gap, you have to have at least equal volume. So, anything So, the less volume it has, the less the stronger that support becomes. So, we're hitting that gap today, so probably of if today's not the low, this week will be the low. Cuz a lot of times these trades show up on Fridays, but we'll see how it goes. But, anyhow, this is a low area. The market's kind of gone sideways here for basically a month, and it's due for another rally up, and that rally is going to start If it doesn't start today, it it may at the latest start late next week. But, all the characteristics of a bullish setup is here. We got a test of a gap. We're running into previous highs. The gap's being tested on lighter volume. Uh [snorts] so, anyhow, um we're staying long. We don't see any reason of any consequence that this is the top of any any magnitude. There's also kind of unusual thing. There's 40 According to AAII, which is American Individual Investors Association, there's 44% bears and 32% bulls. Isn't that what tops occur on Normally, bullish levels to get up close around 50 55% and we got 32% we got 44 bears so market's not done rallying. Uh so anyway here's some kind of trend following indicators that we we kind of do. We're not showing any Uh this is earlier in the day we're up around 16 now but this is a bottom windows of VIX. You starting getting up around 17 uh it's starting to worry a little bit about last time I checked we're on 16.3 so it's kind of narrowing that. Uh This is a weekly chart so that's reason why I got support here as previous highs we're testing a gap and so far the SPX VIX ratio is not showing any divergence and so the next rally in my opinion is going to be very important how that performs cuz on this next rally you have to have a sign of strength and sign of strength can show up several different ways can show up in volume strength where volume increases can show up in advanced decline which is which is the is like breadth thrust indicator it can do that or it can show up up down volume where you have to have a big surge in up volume compared to down volume and so at least one of those three preferably all three of those type of indicators will show a sign of strength. If one's if one out three does that's usually good enough ideally I like to have all three of them do it we'll have to wait and see what the rally is but if none of them do it if volume doesn't do it advance decline do it up down volume doesn't do it on this next rally that's going to be a worrisome sign so the next rally has to show some sort of sign of strength and that's what I'm kind of watching here carefully. Oh here's this uh Yeah this is AAI they're 33% bears 32.9 and or that's the bulls and the bears here are 44.4 so >> These >> numbers are not overwhelming as but if there's a change, right? >> Say that again. >> Those those numbers are not that overwhelming, though. It's not like It's not like the bears are are really up in the 50 or 60% area. >> Yeah, but they're they're way higher than the bulls. >> Right. >> That's the problem. I usually at tops, the bulls are way out late. Yeah, if this was 40 44% bears and 44% bulls, that's usually a worrisome sign. So, normally we're setting at new highs in a market and there's more bears than bulls. So, that's bullish. So, um that's why I'm kind of making you know, we're setting at all-time you know, near we're not exactly at all-time highs. >> But it's close. >> But we're very close. Yeah, we're very close and there's still more bears um than than bulls and that's usually a bullish sign. So, that that can change very rapidly in a short period of time like a week or two. So, if we do rally to new highs and there's no sign of strength and advance decline no sign of strength and the up-down volume and no sign of strength and um and volume period and this ratio jumps you know, say up to 45% bulls, then I'd be be starting to worry cuz I do think there's not enough panic in the market to drive this market higher even though there's more bears here. I do watch I don't have this chart shown, but I do watch the Arms Index real closely and we've been running on a 21-day average below one. A lot of times that's a pre- to a top. So, that top may be three, four, five weeks away, but it does kind of warn that some sort of a high may form later this month, which is September or possibly in October. So, that's what I'm kind of watching. But right now I'm bullish. I'm staying long. I'm going to watch how the next rally performs and that next rally is really important how this market performs. So, I hear the music. >> So, we got the music coming on, Tim. Uh we're about to take a break, folks. We're listening to Tim Orr discussing from the Orr article discussing the S&P. We're coming back. We're talking gold. Basil Chapman sitting for Tommy O'Brien. Uh this is the Tommy O'Brien show. Dow's down 444. S&P's down 60. I'll be right back straight after this message. >> [music] >> Hi, folks. We're back. Basil Chapman sitting for Tommy O'Brien with Tim Orr. Tim, are you are you finished with the S&P and you'd like to move on? Is there is there more you'd like to say on the S&P? >> No, we're done. Uh we're going to move on. Uh yeah, we're going to move on to I just want to point this indicator out. This indicator goes back to to 2014. Um so, that's what 12 years better. So, anyhow, it goes back 12 years. And a market the bottom window indicator works the best, which is the 18-day average of the up-down volume for GDX. So, this is about GDX. 18-day I've tried the five, the 10, the 15. Yeah, I got a lot of different days, but 18-day um I always talk about a sign of strength. This is another way. This is up-down volume sign of strength. And actually, the advance-decline did it, too. But, for some reason, the up-down volume indicator works better than the advance-decline indicator right above it. So, anyhow, this indicator coming off of a low, you have to have above uh 40. And we had 42, I think it was August 27th, we had 42 on this indicator. And I marked all the times uh we reached 40 on those indicators and it happened um well, what, six times? I guess this is the sixth time right now. And there's one not a failure, but it the only time we did hit 40 on on this back in 2023 and for some reason the market just flipped sideways. It did finally start to rally right after it. You know, but it went sideways for it looks like about nine months before it started going up. But previous times when it has hit 40, the market rallied for another six months. So in a nutshell, this happened six times. Five of those times the market rallied for another six months. So that's an 83% chance that we're going to have a surge in price starting. So this is a sign of strength on up down volume and actually and also advanced decline coming off a low. We got a consolidation going on and you'll have consolidations going forward, but this market should rally at least into next March at a minimum. And I think there's there's other evidence that this market GDX may rally into September. In other words, a year from now, but we'll worry about that later. But this is a this is a surge off of a bottom. This is a sign of strength off a bottom. The only time you want to see a sign of strength, it has to come off of a bottom. If it doesn't, you're going to go back down again until you do get a sign of strength. So I just want to say that this rally is in early stages and it's just not going to blow out here. It's going to keep going even though we're seeing a consolidation now. It's worth buying. I'll put it that way. We do have some trend following indicators. This is one of them. It's a daily cumulative advanced decline. This one's a cumulative up down volume. If you're above the Bollinger band, it's a buy signal, which is all the green area here. If you're below the Bollinger band in both those indicators, it's a sell signal. And right now we flipped back to early August, looks like. We flipped back to a buy signal here, so we're on a a buy signal on this indicator. Here's, uh, this is a weekly in indicator. Uh, let's see. This is the, uh, yeah, this is the weekly GDX. This, uh, did not give a sell signal on the last top. So, these these type indicators, it gave a buy signal in in 2024. It's still on a buy signal. Did It's the same, uh, same type theory. It's above the mid Bollinger Bands an uptrend. If below the mid Bollinger Bands a downtrend. The blue areas are when it's above the Bollinger Bands. And if you can see right here, we we hit the Bollinger Band turned back up. Uh, we hit the Bollinger Band turned back up, so the weekly just remained on a buy signal. It's one of the reasons why I stayed long because of this indicator. The weekly stayed long, so I'm just going to stay long with it even though it went from basically 117 back down to around, I think, 70 or something. Uh, this indicator and the bigger indicator the bigger the longer term indicator the weekly indicator rule the dailies and the monthly rule the weekly. So, since this stayed on a buy signal, I just stayed long. Uh, there's some couple of interesting type things going on here. This is a GDX GLD ratio. If you notice, we're already above the last high. This indicator leads GDX. If you notice [clears throat] right here, uh, this indicator started making lower highs where GDX is still making higher highs and you got that little pullback in GDX. Um, here even though GDX was making lower lows, this indicator was actually making higher lows warning that the market was basing and not had declined. Now we hit new highs, that suggests at a minimum GDX should hit a new high. Uh, so cuz this indicator is already hitting new highs. Previous new high of March is around 117. That would be the minimum upside target, but I think we're going to keep going further. And I brought this up uh last time uh on uh last Thursday uh is there's a longer-term view. This is still the GDX daily ratio, but it's on the monthly timeframe. This chart goes back to 2000 uh 6, and I think this indicator's breaking out. If this indicator breaks out without gold moving, if it goes up to the next resistance, which is basically 0.4, which is basically the highs of 2010 and 2011, there's some resistance. May even break through that, I don't know. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but we'll at least get back to there. Or you know, we're at 24 right now, and we're actually higher than the previous high of March, where the S&P's was higher. Or not the S&P's, but GDX was higher. So, this indicator's making higher highs. Uh GDX has not made a higher high, but it will. Uh I don't know what we're going to happen at the previous high up around 117. We may consolidate there a little bit. I'm not sure. That's the reason why I got this uh faded kind of arrow there. Not you know, we we may just go sideways here, then go up, but either way, we're going to go higher, cuz I think this indicator's breaking out. And these indicators don't stay in this trading range this long. 13 years is a long time. >> A big base, yeah. >> Yeah, it's a huge base. So, it's not going to stay here another 13 years. Either it's going to break out of this base or it's not. Uh so, I'm thinking it's breaking out right now. So, GDX is probably not going to stop, in my opinion. Uh that may change um at 117. I think we're actually going to double. So, GDX give or take around 100 right now, I think a year from now, or maybe Yeah, I think it a year from now cuz I got some indicators that could see a high in 2027 around September. And if we do reach .4 by next September, this will be at least $200 if not more. >> That's exciting. >> Yeah, it's really it's exciting. And you a lot of these smaller um gold stocks if you you flip them to a monthly chart and you do a Bollinger Band on them and if you see a sign of strength or a big jump in volume past mid Bollinger Band and a lot of these little stocks, you had that over the last 6 months. A lot of them doing that. So, all of all these little gold stocks, at least some of them are going to come back to life. And so, it's going to be a kind of exciting time. Now, things can change. For instance, if this indicator for some reason starts going back down again, that would change the whole perspective. I would pull back back my bullish horns. But, from what I can see uh even on a short-term basis here, this is a daily of that same indicator. We're already breaking out new highs here. So, how far can GDX go down? You know, I don't know. Not far. Um I did some studies, maybe 95 at worst. So, we'll see. But, it's going to be exciting over the next 12 months. >> Well, that that's fabulous information. I just wanted to mention to both the GDX is the gold miners and the GLD is trading gold. [crying] It's the the the thing long for or short with gold. But, thank you so much, Jim, I appreciate that. I hope to hear you again on Thursday and fabulous information. Everyone Everyone applauds you. Thank you. >> All right. Thank you. Talk to you again. >> in a moment.