September 1st The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

Educating investors. [music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. Let's go to uh Ben in San Jose. Ben, what's going on, brother? >> Hey, Tom. How you doing, man? >> I'm doing great, man. Yourself? >> I just wanted to thank you and your [music] team and everything. I've been using your technique with the 10-minute charts, watching the VIX, and uh just making a fortune here on the futures. >> Isn't it interesting? That's awesome, man. >> It's wonderful. Thanks, Tom. I appreciate it. >> Okay, man. Have a great one. Have a safe one. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. >> Hi, folks. Basel Chaplan for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show on this Tuesday, very first trading day of September. Not a very pleasant day, is it? I needed to go straight to this because it's so important. Crude oil continuous contract. Um, it is up $4.64 at 90.37 of 5.36%. Now, one of the techniques that I discussed and I showed my subscribers to my opening call. Spent a little time on it uh this past um uh Friday afternoon when I did my overview video. It's about an hour, hour and a half. It's like a webinar. This one was because I I discussed so many techniques. I mentioned that there's a technique I developed just years and decades ago. It's called a chap wave overlapping wave and it go says overlap lapping wave to leg D and then test the left side lip. So when in the chap methodology we're always looking for at least four higher peaks to a peak D to confirm a buy signal has gone to a buy mode. [snorts] But once in a while you get a peak C and it pulls back and then under it you get another A B and then what happens? There's a C and it's under the previous C. When that second C is taken out, usually, not always, but usually the move is so powerful that not only does it go to leg D based on that C. And that's all based on the initial starting point right here, the governing uh low right there, that trough E back late July, early August. it goes through the the very the PC that initiated the whole down move. So I'm anticipating that crude oil will go over 92.74 in this leg. Unbelievable. Uh and [laughter] I also have to mention just uh a little hubris here. I discussed it, did everything right, and then what I did is uh I did not get my subscribers in. We missed it by 8 cents the other day. The two times long. Bloomberg crude oil two times long. Uh right there, we just missed it in the UCO. Uh and then it gapped up yesterday and it gapped up today. This is only in legacy. So this is going to be very interesting because what I talk about very often is the dark news patina and that's this chart right here. I showed I show it very very often to my subscribers and right here uh to TFN viewers. I base this on this yellow background chart. I base this on just the Dow. I call it the CHWave dog news cloud coverina. I like to call it the patina because it's based on finding bad news that the market either ignores or the market starts to treat as oh really that is bad news most of the times like water of a duck's back but I treat this with internal highs and residual highs I won't go into that I'll go most probably tomorrow morning my show 10:00 the tiger technicians I'll do that but I identify that peak D in the Dow as an internal high and I said if it pulls pulls back. We're going to have to watch it sharply. We were long that whole move to the upside. Then we got out and we've been now we're short and we're looking at this Dow which has just made this H pattern. So this dark news patina that's really the whole thing about the markets. Markets don't care about news unless you start to see um it reacting to the to the news as if it's bad news. Same news yesterday could come up today market ignores it. You never knows how the market deals with it. So crude oil is very important. Bonds, TBT, look at this. Yes, they're moving higher. I don't think they're in the critical area yet, but let me tell you at 3 3.84%. It goes over 4, I'd say 4.05. All of a sudden, the market is not going to like that at all. Right now, it's just adding to this dark news. Plus, you've got a lot of uncertainty. You got Canada and now you got Iran. You've had there just a lot of things going on. Let's go to the market. Here we go. The SPX. Now, let's go start with the Dow. INDU. The Dow is in a sell mode in the daily. Uh, as I say, we are short. This is the weekly chart is still good even with this move. Look at the distance between the 9 period moving average and the 14 period moving average. And since the April uh April low um look how nicely the 914 has held up except there is an up channel and we went under it today with this week so far. But look at that monthly chart. Still very strong. Okay, let's go to the S&P. I got to watch my time here because there's a lot going on and I don't want to run out of time before I go through a bunch of things and I do want to get to the VIX index. So here's the S&P. not that ugly, but it is a sell mode in the daily. The weekly chart still looks great. The monthly chart, leg D, you remember these where other things can happen, but so far it's holding really well, but the first day of um first day of the month doesn't look too great, but we've still got many days to go before the end of September arrives. And then we'll talk about that over the next week or two. Let's go to the QQQ. This is a different chart alto together. Look, this chart has failed from the June 3 high right here of 748 65 on the 3rd of June. It's just been making lower lows, sorry, lower highs and much lower lows and then it had a bounce, but it couldn't get out of this inside track inside track repellent zone. Just talking about the inside this inside track. Look at this. I mentioned this to subscribe to to I showed this in the data. I showed a chart of this and I said if this 10-minute E- mini chart um has takes out this CH wave inside track propellant zone and goes under it, it has two bars in which to get above it. Well, look, one bar down and now it's one, two, three bars above it. So, that was really important. So some of the technical indicators are still working quite well regardless of the strength of the selling. But what's interesting is if it was the usual very very intense selling all of these would be down 1% 1 and a half% or more. So this is part of a process that's going on is just whittling out winners and losers etc. But what's really happened is let me I don't know if I can do it right now. I wasn't preparing to do it but I might as well do it. Mag is this the mag? Yeah, this is the true social. No, I want M A GS. Is that what it is? Uh, yeah, Magnificent 7. You see, if you look at the monthly chart, they are still holding quite well overall, but some of them have really pulled back quite sharply. Um, so I just wanted to show you the rotation that's going on in this morning. Look at this. Healthcare IH starting to pull back, but it's it's been one of the leaders healthcare. All right, I need need to just cover a bunch of things here. IWM the Russell 2000 sharp percentage move today. It is down 3.20 at 290.75. I'm anticipating that it does test this left side low. We've got the break coming up. I wanted to show you the volatility index. You remember that inside track uh propellant repellent line that I was [crying] talking about? Well, there it is. And I spoke about this during the week. I've been saying for a few days now, watch that. actually more than a week that we should be bouncing from here. There's a little bit of a bounce up 1.26 in the VIX at 16.80. I'll be back in a moment. Basel Chapman for Tom O'Brien. >> Researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey. You've no doubt come across many folks who push Forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories [music] of these so-called Forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. This is what sets Teddy Kekstacks the Tiger Forex report off the riff raff. Every Monday, former [music] Chicago Merkantile Exchange member and author Teddy Kekstat releases his Tiger Forex Report newsletter where he dives into the complex world [music] of Forex and takes time to actually teach you his methods that have made him so successful in the fast-paced and rewarding world of Forex trading. Furthermore, all subscribers receive access to archive streams of Teddy's where he provides university level education to help you in Forex trading. 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Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, [music] tedious text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV [music] live every day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern [music] for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking [music] calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert [music] hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or [music] on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN educating investors. [music] >> Hi guys, we're back. Basel Chapman sitting here with Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show. A little later on we'll have some more. We're looking at Gar. Oh, and this is usually where uh Tommy interviews me about my newsletter, the opening call. You can go to the front page of TFN, check it out. Um this is going to be a fascinating period. Why? Let me just go back to the VIX index. So you see this inside track repellent propellant zone. It's been a propellant zone for so long and then four weeks ago it went under it. Then the next week was over it. Then last week was under it. This week is over it. But what it's really telling us is that at this particular moment the uh fund managers are beginning to take notice and they are starting to uh put some money to work in insurance. That's just the way I look at it. But uh when you look at a market like this and you can see that we've been topping for a while. I mean two months June, July, August, three months for the QQS and they really haven't broken down. It looks to me like this is time that we're using at this particular point for some areas it's price but mostly it's time than price and that's reflected here in the VIX index. When the VIX index has this huge sudden move like it did right there the beginning of August, that's usually just like a one day wonder. This is suggesting to me that we've got more time to the downside and it isn't one of those one to two% moves that goes on for just days and days and eventually you go like a three to five week major selloff and then you come back roaring. This is different. This is just whittling away, wearing everyone out. uh stocks that used to be great are not looking great anymore. Uh suddenly you've had like a like a a Salesforce.com that just spikes up and and because of that avoids the deterioration here, but it's still holding well. Now, so in my work, what we've done is um I I'm very careful. Every day we have in my newsletter, we're looking at positions. Some positions turn out to be long-term. I still have from 2020 to and 2022 we've still 2023 we've got our long Dow positions even in the three times long which you should never have but we've still got that it's done very well but at the same time we also try to do the do the short side and I've been saying that the INDU [clears throat] that peakd and peakd is where other things can happen the travel wave methodology that's where you can restart or you can have the sharpest move down patterns that we look at like this dreaded H pattern where you come down sharply and then you rally fail at a peak A or B and then you take out the left side low. That's very important. So all in all uh what we've been looking at is waiting to to short. Now we are short and what we're looking at is that the moves so far have been Dow has been the weakest and the IWM which had done really well has been the second weakest and look at this arching over. We are short this as well. Now, what's really important about this, you've already got to a D in the weekly chart. You've gotten to a C in the monthly chart. I'll do more in my my show tomorrow, the 10:00, the Tiger Technicians hour, but within this context, it's really the monthly charts that count. And for me, the monthly charts so far are still outstanding. The weekly charts haven't really budged. I haven't even got a sell. Look at that nine period moving average, which is over the 14 period moving average. So, this is a technique I use. Um, I don't know if I I should I do it now. I'll take just a moment. So, let me show you this if I can find it right here. Okay, there we I think this is Where did it go? There it is. So, let me open this up. There it goes. So, look at this. This is the SMH when look how long the 9 moving average on the daily chart has been since April. It was just fantastic until July and then it went negative and it's been shaky. Look at the Dow. It's been beautiful since April and then it got shaky and then it still went higher and just the last two days it's gone pink with a 9 period moving average under the green. That's it's like a warning. Look at the QQQ something different. um it started it choppiness much earlier back in June and now it's rolling over but we won't know until you get the parameters between the 914 to widen well this has just turned down again so we have to wait so I like to use those indicators now look at gold we've been long gold for a long time all the way for that move up and then we took nice profits kept a little bit and then we've used that on this big move up and then one of the positions that we got was AEM [clears throat] Agnica Eagle. So, we got it uh down here and it ran beautifully to the 224 level. We've been taking a little bits off and now it's come back sharply, but look, the line is still strongly over the 14, but the price is pulling back. It's done that before. So, you have to look at the history and then it turns down. So, I'm watching this to say, you know what, I think in terms of gold, and I I'll just go back to the main charts. I think that when gold and the market the general the equities come down together uh that is the market equities that means that money is coming out of stocks that have done very well people are getting nervous and then they want to take profits in stocks that have been very good and now they include the the gold and silver stocks that's my interpretation right now because I always think of gold as a geopolitical instrument that countries go to and it seems to me having pulled back so sharply here that you got to take it seriously under the 200 period moving average. Look at the weekly chart. That looked like a great rally. It fails with the champion wave inside wedge resistance line. So with that said, so I just want to say so we've still got gold positions. We've had and now gold and silver be to take some profits off. I still would like to keep a core position because you never know what happens. That's one thing. The other is within the context of um the different sectors. Um we're starting to see that I wanted to show you this. I don't I show I showed you this before that in the crude oil the crude oil has had this big move up and that to me is kind of a warning shot. It just says, you know, it hasn't broken the CH wave inside track repellent zone. But wow, if gold I mean, if crude oil moves higher is at 90. If it goes back into the low 90s, that's that's going to be a problem. I think I think there's a problem. Look, if you look at the Jets, Jesus um global jets ETF. Look at that. Made remember D is so important. Well, it made a D at 34.06 06 in the daily chart and you made a D in the weekly chart and it's pulling back. So this just says to me take this pullback seriously. That's the most important thing. Then I used I use round numbers. Um look at this micron goes to a round number alltime high of 1255.00 on the 25th of June. It's down at 932 but it was down at 789 with a round number low and it had a run up. So I use a whole bunch of techniques I've developed over the years. My subscribers know that they use it themselves and I think it's it's it's an important these are important tools that I've developed over decades and we use them all the time. You just saw this move right here. Let me see if I can get back to it. Yeah, look at this. So that you had a move. How important is the PD? Well, in the two-minute chart, you just went to a D, but the 200 per moving average at that G was a very sharp repellent zone. So, we'll see. And look, it was it's now four bars over that in uh the inside uh track propellant zone. So these are all techniques that you can use. This is live. I wanted to show it so that you can see um how it works in real time. Okay. So with that said, I a couple of things I just wanted to point out. Let me go back to these charts here [clears throat] within the context of positions that we've had. For instance, we've had we have positions sometimes very short term. Other times we have it for quite a while. Uh GE we've had since the 198 level uh back in 2025. We've used it as trading positions. We've got many and now look is starting to pull back very sharply. This is important. This is GE aerospace and and aircraft GEV which is VOVA has also pulled back. Many very important stocks are trying to pull back. I'm taking this serious. I'll be back in a moment. Basel chap and I'll be with Tim Ward as soon as we return. I pick up hopeful daily newsletter. See you in a few minutes. 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Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS distributors increasing [music] from Tommy O'Brien. This is the moment where we start. We interview Tim Odd, author of the Odd Oracle and just uh he's been for at least uh uh what I can it's about maybe two three years that you've been on every Tuesday and Thursday giving us all this information. Hi Tim, how are you? >> How you fine fine. So anyhow people can find me here at ww.orgenoracle.com oddenoracle.com and my email is uh or ator oracle do orenoracle.com. I'm also on Twitter. Uh you go there. I update the um some interesting charts along the way. But anyhow, let's let's begin what's going on in the market here. Um I'm going to skip a little bit here. This this is a daily uh SPX and um uh no this is the spy daily. Anyhow uh you had a sign of strength. This is SOS through the previous highs which is this line right here. and the market kind of rallied up kind of went sideways and on August 4th uh which is this day right there that volume came in at 69 million shares and that uh and it formed a little gap not a big gap a little gap that's the reason why I have gap there and it formed at started at the low of that day anyhow 760.52 on the spy now if uh so the market kind of went sideways today This is earlier in the day. We tested that gap and it's a 10% lighter test uh another light 10% lighter volume than 69 million shares comes out 62 million shares. So when a mark goes back and tests the gap and the volume's at least 10% lighter, it can be you know 40% lighter but it has to at least be 10% lighter. Um, and that gap will act as support and the volume's not going to be anywhere near 62 million shares. Probably going to be around 40 million. So, we're testing the gap right now. Uh, or earlier we have tested that gap. The day is not over yet. We got, you know, half hour to go before the market closes. And but volume is going to probably come in around 40 million shares. So, this today is probably a low in the market. We're also uh banging against the previous highs of June July right here. So there's a lot of gap. There's there's to to get through a gap, you have to have at least equal volume. So anything so the less volume it has, the the stronger that support becomes. So we're hitting that gap today. So probably if today is not the low, this week will be the low because a lot of times these trades show up on Fridays, but we'll see how it goes. But anyhow, this is a low area. The market kind of gone sideways here for basically a month and uh it's due for another rally up and that rally is going to start if it does start today say at at May uh at the latest start uh late next week. But all the characteristics of a bullish setup is here. We got a test of a gap. We're running into previous highs. The gap's being tested on lighter volume. Uh so anyhow, um we're staying long. We don't see any reason of any consequence that this is a top of any any magnitude. There also is another kind of unusual thing. There's 40 uh according to u AI which is American individual investors association there's 44% bears and 32% bulls. Isn't that what tops occur on bull? Normally the bullish levels gives up close around 50 55%. And we got 32% we got 44 bears. So market's not done rallying. Uh so any here's some kind of a trend following indicators that we we kind of do. We're not showing any uh this is earlier in the day. We're up around 16 now, but this bottom window is the VIX. You're starting getting up around 17. Uh it's starting to worry a little bit. Last time I checked, we're on 16.3. So it's kind of narrowing that. Uh this is a weekly chart so that's the reason why I got support here as previous highs. We're testing a gap and so far the S&P VIX ratio is not showing any divergence. And so the next rally in my opinion is going to be very important how that performs cuz on this next rally you have to have a sign of strength and a sign of strength can show up several different ways. It can show up in volume strength where volume increases. It can show up in advanced decline which is which is the zwag breast thrust indicator. It can do that or it can show up down volume where you have to have a big surge in up volume compared down volume. And so at least one of those three preferably all three of those type of indicators will show a sign of strength. Uh if one's if one out of three does that's usually good enough. Ideally you like to have all three of them do it. We'll have to wait and see what the rally is. But if none of them do it, if volume doesn't do it, advanced client doesn't do it, update it on this next rally, that's going be a worrisome sign. So the next rally has to show some sort of sign of strength. And that's why I'm kind of watching here uh carefully. Um oh, here's this um yeah, this is AEI. They have 33% bears 32.9 and or that's the bulls and the bears here are 44.4. So >> those numbers are not overwhelming, but there there's a change, right? >> Say that again. >> Those those numbers are not that overwhelming, though. >> It's not like >> it's not like the bears are are really up in the 50 or 60% area. >> Yeah, but they're they're way higher than the bulls, >> right? That's the problem. Usually at tops the bulls are way out late. Yeah, if it was 40 44% bears and 44% bulls, that's usually a worrisome sign. So, normally we're set at new highs in a market and there's more bears and bulls. So, that's bullish. So, um that's why I'm kind of making, you know, we're sitting at all time, you know, near we're not exactly at alltime highs, >> but it's close, >> but we're very >> Yeah, we're very close. And there's still more bears uh than than bulls. And that's usually a bullish side. So that that can change very rapidly in a short period of time like a week or two. So if we do rally to new highs and there's no sign of strength in advanced client, no sign of strength in the up down volume and no sign of strength in u in volume period and this ratio jumps, you know, say up to 45% bulls, then I be starting to worry cuz I do think there's not enough uh panic in the market to drive this market higher. Even though there's more bears here, I do watch I I don't have this chart shown, but I do watch the ARMS index real closely. And we've been running on a 21day average below one. A lot of times that's a pre to a top. So that top may be three, four, five weeks away, but it does kind of warn that some sort of high may form later this month, which is September or possibly in October. So that's what I'm kind of watching. But right now, I'm bullish. I'm staying long. I'm going to watch how the next rally performs and that next rally is really important how this market performs. So I hear the music. >> Great. So we got the music coming on. Tim, we're about to take a break, folks. We're listening to Tim or discussing from the Oracle discussing the S&P. We're coming back. We're talking gold. Basel chap sitting for Tommy O'Brien. Uh this is the Tom O'Brien show. Dow's down 444. S&B's down 60. I'll be right back straight after these messages. >> If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. TFN educating investors. 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The [music] reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can [music] be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you [music] turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. [music] At TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why [music] each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find [music] an edge in today's markets. TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market [music] before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free [music] with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on [music] the front page of tfn.com. TFN, educating [music] investors. TFN has launched the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders for [music] more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tigers Day available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or [music] added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this [music] educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm Orion. Hi folks, we're back. Basel chap sitting for Tommy O'Brien with Tim. Tim, are you are you finished with the S&P and you'd like to move on? Is it is it more you'd like to sell on the S&P? >> No, we're done. Uh we're going to move >> uh yeah, we're going to move on to I just want to point this indicator out. This indicator goes back to to 2014. Um so that's what 12 years better. So anyhow goes back 12 years and I marked that uh the bottom window indicator works the best which is the 18-day average of the up down volume for GDX. So, this is about GDX 18 day. I've tried the five, the 10, the 15. Yeah, I got a lot of different days, but 18 day. Um, and I always talk about a sign of strength. This is another way. This is up down volume sign of strength. And actually, the advanced decline did it too, but for some reason the up down volume indicator works better than the advanced decline indicator right above it. So you know this indicator coming off of a low you have to have above uh 40 and we hit 42 I think it was August 27th we hit 42 on this indicator and I marked all the times uh we reached 40 on those indicators and it happened um well what six times I guess this is the sixth time right now and there's one not a failure, but it the only time we did hit 40 on on this back in 2023 and for some reason the market just flipped sideways. It did finally start to rally right after it. Uh you know, but it went sideways for it looks like about 9 months before it started going up. But previous times when it has hit 40, the market rallied for another 6 months. So in a nutshell, this happened six times. Five of those times the market rallied for another six months. So that's an 83% chance that we're going to have a surge in price starting. So this is a sign of strength on up down volume and actually and also advanced decline coming off a low. We got a consolidation going on and you'll have consolidations going forward. But this market should rally at least into next March at a minimum. And I think there's there's other evidence that this market GDX may rally into September, in other words, a year from now, but we'll worry about that later. But this is a this is a surge off of a bottom. It's a sign strength off a bottom. The only time you want to see a sign strength. It has to come off of a bottom. If it doesn't, you're going to go back down again until you do get a sign of strength. So, I just want to say that this rally is in early stages and it's just not going to blow out here. It's going to keep going. Even though we're we're seeing a consolidation now, uh it's worth buying. I'll put it that way. We do have some trend following indicators. Uh this is one of them. It's a daily cumulative advance decline. This one's a cumulative up down volume. Uh if you're above the Ballinger band, it's a buy signal, which is all the green area here. If you're below the Ballinger band on both those indicators, it's a sell signal. And right now, we flip back to early August. Looks like uh we flip back to a buy signal here. So, we're on a a buy signal on this indicator. Um here's a this is a weekly ind indicator. Uh let's see. Yeah, this is the uh yeah this is the weekly GDX. This uh did not give a sell signal on the last top. So these these type of indicators it gave a buy signal in uh 2024 is still on a buy signal. Did it's the same uh same type theory. It's above the mid Ballinger band. It's an uptrend. If below the mid Ballinger band it's a downtrend. The blue areas are when it's above the Ballinger band. And if you can see right here, we hit the Ballinger band, turned back up. We hit the Ballinger band, turned back up. So, the weekly just remained on a bicycle. It's one of the reasons why I stayed long because of this indicator. The weekly uh stayed long. So, I'm just going to stay along with it. Even though it went from basically 117 back down to around I think 70 or something. um this indicators and the bigger indicer term indicator or the weekly indicators r the dailies and the monthlyies roll the weekly. So since this stayed on a buy signal I just stayed long. Uh there's some couple of interesting type things going on here. This is a GDXG ratio. If you notice we're already above the last high. This indicator leads GDX. If you notice right here, uh, this indicator started making lower highs where GDX is still making higher highs and you got that little pullback in GDX. Um, here, even though GDX was making lower lows, this indicator is actually making higher lows, warning that the market was basing and not had a decline. Now, we hit new highs. That suggests at a minimum GDX should hit a new high. Uh, so because this indicator is already hitting new highs, the previous new high of March is around 117. That would be the minimum upside target, but I think we're going to keep going further. And I brought this up uh last time uh on uh last Thursday. Uh is here's a longer term view. This is still the GDC daily ratio, but it's on the monthly time frame. This chart goes back to 200 uh six. And I think this indicator is breaking out. If this indicator breaks out without gold moving, if it goes up to the next resistance, which is basically 04, which is basically the highs of 2010 and 2011, there's some resistance. May break through that. I don't know. We'll have to wait and see what happens. But we at least get back to there. We're, you know, we're at 24 right now and we're actually higher than the previous high of March where the S&PS was higher or not the S&Ps but GDX was higher. So, this indicator is making higher highs. Uh GDX has not made a higher high, but it will. Uh I don't know why we're going to happen at the previous high up around 117. We may consolidate there a little bit. I'm not sure. That's the reason why I got this faded kind of arrow there. that, you know, we we may just go sideways here, then go up. But either way, we're going to go higher because I think this indicator is breaking out. And these indicators don't stay in a trading range this long. 13 years is a long time. I want >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It's a huge base. So, it's not going to stay here another 13 years. Either it's going to break out of this base or it's not. Uh, so I'm thinking it's breaking out right now. So, GDX is probably not going to stop my opinion. Uh that may change um at 117 I think we're actually going to double. So GDX give or take around 100 right now. I think a year from now or maybe yeah I think a year from now cuz I got some indicators that could see a high in 2027 around September. And if we do reach point4 by next September this will be at least $200 if not more. >> So exciting. >> Yeah it really it's exciting. And a lot of these uh smaller um gold stocks uh if you you flip them to a monthly chart and you do a Ballinger band on them and if you see a sign of strength noted a big jump in volume past mid Ballinger band on a lot of these little stocks you had that over the last 6 months a lot of them doing that. So all all these little gold stocks at least some of them are going to come back to life and so it's going to be a kind of exciting time. Now things can change. For instance, if this indicator for some reason starts going back down again, that would change the whole perspective. I would pull back my bullish horns. But from what I can see, uh, at least on a short-term basis here, this is the daily of that same indicator. We're already breaking out new highs here. So, how far can GDX go down? You know, I don't know. Uh, not far. Um, I did some studies. Maybe 95 and worse. So, we'll see. But it's going to be exciting over the next 12 months. >> Well, that that's fabulous information. I just want to mention for folks the GDX is the gold miners and the GLD is trading gold. That's the the the trading long for or short for gold. Well, thank you so much, Tim. I appreciate that. Hope to hear you again on Thursday. And uh fabulous information. Everyone everyone applauds you. 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Try any [music] of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day moneyback guarantee. Just [music] visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. Don't forget you can listen to TFN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv. That's tfn.com then hit watchtiger TV. [music] Hi folks I'm sitting here for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show as we wrap up. I went in the den it was mentioned uh about 1908 and what was the comment? The comment was uh where is it? Oh, I don't think I lost it. Uh the comment was on the on the Model T Ford and how there were three 400 companies as you went into the into the 1908 level. But anyway, this is the hardest longest race, Henry Ford and the cross country contest that changed America by Eric Mosas. I read this recently. It is just an outstanding book and it goes through the actual race from New York to Seattle. There were no roads on when he went to the west coast. There was nothing. It was on an unbelievable story. And the two model Ford T model uh model T4s um the number two Ford or won it, but there's question there were some things that were illegal. But anyway, back at back at the market. Let's just say see this H pattern that we've seen in the Dow. got to be careful because if it closes, it's a [laughter] 5273. If there is a close under 525,5500 in the next day or two, you could get a one to one of this arch formation to the downside. So, I'm watching that closely. We are short this, but the the weekly chart is still holding pretty darn well. So, I just wanted to put that into context. And the other thing I was talking about was the um the VIX index. So, this right here. So, see the VIX index is at 8 16.44. 44. When it moves steadily up like this, and you can see how it keeps breaking down, but when it moves steadily, you've got to be seeing a weekly chart that on a Friday closes strong. So that that Monday, well, we got a holiday Monday, so the Tuesday would be much higher. That's going to be the clue. And that says that 18.37, the 200 period moving average in the weekly chart is really important. the close above that says uh-oh now we start to get the acceleration to the downside right now um these are small numbers uh 89 for the down speed down uh it starts to get to one and a half or 2% when that VIX index really skyrockets have a wonderful evening check out my opening call daily newslet and I'll be back tomorrow at 10 for the tiger technicians hour